SUBSEASONAL DIAGNOSTIC FORECAST GP1
NOAA-USAID Eleventh International Training Workshop Climate Variability and Predictions
(11ITWCVP),
Ankara, Turkey, April,19th, 2019
Not active MJO:
=> Convection over Indian ocean
MJO
Active MJO
Phase diagrams
and composites
Circulation Anomalies
Raw Rainfall Anomalies
Bias Corrected /
Reg Calibrated
Forecast Discussion
Consensus Forecast, Polygons and Text Description
Yes
Active Tropical Cyclone
Assess its possible
Impact
No
Yes No
Week-1/2 Forecast Process
CIRCULATION ANOMALY AT 200 HPA:WEEK1
-Divergence zone over tunisia, algeria and morocco
-Upper levels are favorable for cyclone development over north
africa.
WIND & CONVERGENCE AT 850 HPA:
The map show a convergence zone at low levels, it is low-pressure center over morocco and Algeria (mid- latitude).
CIRCULATION ANOMALY AT 850 HPA:WEEK1
-GEFS IS PREDICTING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER
NORTHERN MOROCCO AND
NORTHWEST ALGERIA FOR THE FIRST WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY :WEEK1
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY
Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for precipitation exceed 25 over northern morocco and Northwestern Algeria.
there is a chance for week-1 rainfall total to exceed 50 mm over
Northern morocco and Northwestern Algeria.
Anomalies for the first week are showing warming conditions over eastern Algeria, southern Tunisia and western Libya and cooling over Morocco.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY: WEEK1
CIRCULATION ANOMALY AT 850 hPa: WEEK1
Cool temperature:
North flow wind is
predicted which leads to cooling over Morocco
Warm temperature
An organized southern flow wind from Sahara to north Africa, south winds will
replace current cool north flow
warm weather is
expected for week-1 in
Southern Tunisia, eastern
Algeria and Libya.
• Below normal temperatures over Morocco and above normal temperature over eastern Algeria ,Southern Tunisia and western Libya
• Above normal precipitations over Northern Morocco and Northwestern Algeria WEEK1 SYNTHESIS
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
CIRCULATION ANOMALY: WEEK2
• Weakening of low pressure system
• Weakening of divergence at high level and convergence at low level over Morocco and Algeria
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY:WEEK2
• Precipitations are expetecd to be normal
• There is a chance that RR exceed 25mm over North Morocco Algeria and Tunisia
• It is unlikely that RR > 50 mm over North Africa
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY: WEEK 2
• GEEFS gives cooler temperature over Morocco and Western Algeria
• Warmer temperature over most of Algeria,South of Tunisia and Libya
WEEK2 SYNTHESIS
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
• Cooling over Morocco and warming over Eastern Algeria, Southern Tunisia and all of Libya
• Normal precipitations conditions over North Africa
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION
