Morningstar: aandeel in de kijker is Nestlé | Vlaamse Federatie van Beleggers
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(47) Morningstar Equity Research. Research Methodology for Valuing Companies Components of Our Methodology 3 Economic Moat™ Rating 3 Moat Trend™ Rating 3 Moat Valuation 3 Three-Stage Discounted Cash Flow 3 Weighted Average Cost of Capital 3 Fair Value Estimate 3 Scenario Analysis. The Morningstar Rating for stocks identifies companies trading at a discount or premium to our analysts’ assessment of their fair value. A number of components drive this rating: (1) our assessment of the firm’s economic moat, (2) our estimate of the stock’s intrinsic value based on a discounted cash-flow model, (3) the margin of safety bands we apply to our Fair Value Estimate, and (4) the current stock price relative to our fair value estimate.. 3 Uncertainty Ratings 3 Margin of Safety 3 Consider Buying/Selling 3 Stewardship Rating. The concept of the Morningstar Economic Moat™ Rating plays a vital role not only in our qualitative assessment of a firm’s investment potential, but also in our valuation process. We assign three moat ratings—none, narrow, or wide—as well as the Morningstar Moat Trend™ Rating—positive, stable, or negative—to each company we cover. There are two major requirements for firms to earn either a narrow or wide moat rating: (1) the prospect of earning above-average returns on capital; and (2) some competitive edge that prevents these returns from quickly eroding. The assumptions we make about a firm’s moat determine the length of “economic outperformance” that we assume in the latter stages. of our valuation model. We also quantify the value of each firm’s moat, which represents the difference between a firm’s enterprise value and the value of the firm if no future net investment were to occur. Said differently, moat value identifies the value generated by the firm as a result of any future net new investment. Our Moat Trend Rating reflects our assessment of whether each firm’s competitive advantage is either getting stronger or weaker, since we think of moats as dynamic, rather than static. At the heart of our valuation system is a detailed projection of a company’s future cash flows. The first stage of our threestage discounted cash flow model can last from 5 to 10 years and contains numerous detailed assumptions about various financial and operating items. The second stage of our model—where a firm’s return on new invested capital (RONIC) and earnings growth rate implicitly fade until the perpetuity year—can last anywhere from 0 years (for no-moat firms) to 20 years (for wide-moat companies). In our third stage, we assume the firm’s RONIC equals its weighted average cost of capital, and we calculate a continuing value using a standard. Morningstar Research Methodology for Valuing Companies. Fundamental Analysis. Economic Moat Rating TM. Analyst conducts company and industry research:. Strength of competitive advantage is rated: None, Narrow, or Wide. 3 Financial statement analysis. Advantages that confer an economic moat:. 3 Channel checks. High Switching Costs (Microsoft). 3 Trade-show visits 3 Industry and company reports and journals 3 Conference calls 3 Management and site visits. Cost advantage (Wal-Mart) Intangible assets (Johnson & Johnson) Network Effect (Mastercard) Efficient Scale (Lockheed Martin). Company Valuation. Fair Value Estimate. Analyst considers past financial results and focuses on competitive position and future prospects to forecast future cash flows.. Analyst uses a discounted cash-flow model to develop a Fair Value Estimate, which serves as the foundation for the Morningstar Rating for stocks.. Assumptions are entered into Morningstar’s proprietary discounted cash-flow model.. Uncertainty Assessment. The analyst then evaluates the range of potential intrinsic values for the company and assigns an Uncertainty Rating: Low, Medium, High, Very High, or Extreme. The Uncertainty Rating determines the margin of safety required before we would recommend the stock. The higher the uncertainty, the wider the margin of safety.. QQQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQ Q The current stock price relative to Morningstar’s Fair Value Estimate, adjusted for uncertainty, determines the Morningstar Rating for stocks. 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