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Update 20Apr2018

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Update

20Apr2018

Mars 11 2018:

-Back to work (from February 22 to March 10,reason child birth) -Reconnect my account on server

-cleaned my directory from 2.1T to 635Gb Mars 12 2018:

- Start downloading 2000 and 2001 data from

https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/modeldata/TarPool/45day/

Data characteristic: 6 hourlyx6hourlyx45forecasts daily data Mars 13 2018

- Complete download and calculated SCP CFSv2 2000 2001 - Seasonality from 2000 to 2010

Working on

Seasonality MAM

 Relationship between SCP CFSv2 and LSR3 o LSR: Local Storm

o Anomaly correlation (AC) o Seasonality

o Conditional AC (SCP >= 1)

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Monthly climatology MARCH

Day10 Day9 Day8 Day7 Day6

Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1

Day10 Day9 Day8 Day7 Day6

Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1

Day10 Day9 Day8 Day7 Day6

Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1

APRIL

MAY

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 One-point correlation suggests that for weekly LSR data, 5 o ×5 o area-averaged anomalies shows better spatial. coherence than the 0.5 o ×0.5 o

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- Scatter plot SCP(CFSR and GEFS each 14 lead-time) monthly climatology vs. LSR

Perform verification (hit rate) of LSR3 for separate category when an event

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• Sent an email to NCDC Model data manager ncei.orders@noaa.gov for more information about the issues.

• NCEI manager making a 6 hourly data 45 forecasts , data is available backward stage from 2011 and will finish at 1999. • Update for WCOSS account: will be ready by the end of