Africa in the 21st century

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Processed on: 20-2-2018 Processed on: 20-2-2018 Processed on: 20-2-2018 Processed on: 20-2-2018 516847-L-infosheet-ASC 516847-L-infosheet-ASC 516847-L-infosheet-ASC 516847-L-infosheet-ASC

Africa in the 21st century

Ton Dietz & Akinyinka Akinyoade

ASCL Infosheet 33 (revised 2018)

ASCL Infosheet 33 ◆ www.ascleiden.nl

Africa’s development: 2001-2016

Africa’s economy was booming between 2001 and 2015.

‘Emerging Africa’ was more than a slogan. Africa’s ‘human development index’ (see http://hdr.undp.org/en/

content/human-development-index-hdi) also showed major improvements – but not everywhere and certainly

not for all. And in 2015 and 2016, signs of a dramatic economic deterioration began to emerge as a result of fall- ing prices for Africa’s raw materials and lower demand from, for instance, China. The four maps below and the table show the changes in Gross Domestic Product (ad- justed to purchasing power differences) and the changes in the Human Development Index.

>1.7

1.5-1.7

1.1-1.4

1 and below

ANG BOT BFA CHA DRC ETH KEN MAW MAU MOZ NIR NIG RWA SLE TAN ZAM BEN BUR CON CDI MAL SEN GBI

DJI EGY GHA MRS MOR NAM UGA

ALG CAM

GAB MAD

ZIM CVE EQG LES STP SUD SWA TUN

SEY SAF TOG

COM ERI GAM GUI CAR LBY GDP (PPP)

per capita 2016/2001

HDI 2016/2001

>1.10 1-1.10 <1

per capita in US$ x 1000

> 15 10-15 5-10 2-5 1-2

< 1

700-850 600-700 500-600 400-500 300-400 200-300 index

Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coutries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita http://www.unic.un.org.pl/hdr/hdr2003/hdr03_complete.pdf for HDI 2001

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

GDP (PPP) in 2001 GDP (PPP) in 2016

HDI in 2001 HDI in 2001

African Studies Centre, Leiden University PO Box 9555, 2300 RB Leiden

Wassenaarseweg 52 Leiden, The Netherlands +31 (0)71 527 3372/76 www.ascleiden.nl

The African Studies Centre Leiden is the only multidisciplinary academic knowledge institute in the Netherlands devoted entirely to the study of Africa. It has an extensive library that is open to the general public. The ASCL is an interfaculty institute of Leiden University.

Contact Ton Dietz

Akinyinka Akinyoade www.ascleiden.nl

a.j.dietz@asc.leidenuniv.nl a.akinyoade@asc.leidenuniv.nl

>1.7

1.5-1.7

1.1-1.4

1 and below ANG CHA DJI DRC ETH MOZ NGR RWA SLE TAN ZAM BUR MAL SEN

GUI BOT BFA GHA KEN MAW MRS MOR STP SUD UGA

ALG BEN CAM CON CDI TOG GAM

ZIM CVE EGY EQG LES MAU NAM NIG SWA TUN

SAF SEY

GAB GBI MAD COM ERI CAR LBY (LIB) (SOM) GDP (PPP)

per capita 2016/2001

HDI 2016/2001 (revised)*

>1.25 1.15-1.25 <1.15

*In the 2017 version the original HDI data have been used for 2001.

These have been strongly revised afterwards. This 2018 version uses the revised data.

per capita in US$ x 1000

> 15 10-15 5-10 2-5 1-2

< 1

700-850 600-700 500-600 400-500 300-400 200-300 index

Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coutries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

GDP (PPP) in 2001 GDP (PPP) in 2016

HDI in 2000 HDI in 2016

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Africa’s demography: long-term trends

Africa has been experiencing rapid population growth since c. 1950, and this growth will continue in the 21^st century. Table 1 presents the long-term population data and prospects and compares those with Europe.

Table 1 Population growth Africa and Europe nrs in millions of people; % of world population

Year Africa nrs Africa % Europe nrs Europe %

1650 80-100 15-17 100 17

1900 100-150 6-9 400 25

1950 230 9 550 22

2000 820 13 730 12

2015 1190 16 740 10

2050 2530 26 720 7

2100 4400 39 650 6

Africa’s population growth is a result of a late and slow start to the demographic transition, which makes Africa currently the big exception in the world, see Graph 1. As a result, Africa has a very young population (see map 1), and although there is a clear demographic transition go- ing on, according to the current UN forecasts, the continent’s growth will result in a population between 3.4 and 5.6 billion inhabitants at the end of the 21^st century (median: 4.4 billion).

Graph 1 The demographic transition: Africa and other continents

Sources: www.populationpyramid.net/africa; www.scottmanning.com/content-year-by-year-world- population-estimates/; www.thuto.

org/ubh/ub/h202/wpop1.htm, based on R. Cameron, Concise Economic History of the World (New York: O.U.P., 1993) p. 193; Europe in- cludes Russia; www.ksh.hu/interaktiv/grafikonok/vilag_nepessege_en.html , based on United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2017 revision.

children per woman 1950-1955 1965-1970 1980-1985 1995-2000 2010-2015 2025-2030 2040-2045 2055-2060 2070-2075 2085-2090 2095-2100

4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0

Africa

Latin America, Caribbean Asia Oceania

Northern America Europe

Source: http://explainingprogress.com/wp-content/

uploads/2013/05/UN-Estimates-and-Forecasts-Total- fertility-by-major-regions-1950-2100-children-per-woman-UN.png

Total fertility by major regions, estimates and forecast

>45 40-45 35-40 30-35 25-30 20-25 14-20 index Countries by median age

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

Map 2 Countries by median age

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Africa’s urbanization trends

Africa’s population is not only growing rapidly, there is also a massive geographical redistribution taking place:

towards the cities and towards the coasts. Mobility has replaced stability as the norm (if you one can ever talk of Africa as having been stable), and many (young, well-informed) people move to the cities looking for better economic opportunities, escaping oppression by geronto- cratic leaders at home, and in search of freedom to live aspired to lifestyles. Part of that mobility includes foreign destinations, in neighbouring countries, in other parts of Africa, and increasingly also beyond the continent: still mainly in Europe, but ever more in Asia. Table 2 shows the historical, present and future urbanization.

Urbanization in africa 1600-2100

Year Urban % Urban people in millions

1600 10 10

1900 15 13

1960 20 65

2015 40 475

2050 55 1390

2100 70 3080

Africa currently has c. 55 cities with more than 1 million inhabitants, and its ‘megacities’ are increasing. Ac- cording to a study by Julia Bello-Schunemann and Cia- ra Aucoin (2016; https://www.howwemadeitinafrica.

com/2030-six-worlds-41-megacities-will-africa/), six of the world’s 41 megacities (more than 10 million inhabitants) will be in Africa in 2030: Lagos (part of a huge urban belt from Abidjan via Accra to Lagos: ‘Afro-Atlantic City’), Cairo, Johannesburg, Kinshasa/Brazzaville, Luan- da, and Dar es Salaam. See map 3.

Sources: historical data: http://uaps2007.princeton.edu/pa- pers/70296 (Hayashi, Reiko: ‘Long-term population dynamics in Africa: a perspective from the urban structure’(2007); current and recent data: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/

files/wup2014-highlights.pdf; prospects: UN medium scenarios;

own estimate for urban % in 2100. Note: ‘Urban’ can mean many things. In UN statistics, it generally refers to administrative ar- eas with more than 5,000 inhabitants, and working populations whose major occupation is not in agriculture.

GHANA BENIN

TOGO Dakar

Bamako

Abidjan

Ibadan Kano Ouagadougou

Lagos

Yaoundé

Dar es Salaam Kinshasa

Luanda

Addis Ababa

Nairobi Cairo Alexandria

Antananarivo

Johannesburg SOUTH SUDAN

KENYA UGANDA

RWANDA

TANZANIA

ZAMBIA

SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO SWAZILAND

ETHIOPIA

MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE

CENTRAL AFRICAN REP.

SOMALIA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

BOTSWANA NAMIBIA

ANGOLA

SUDAN EGYPT

ERITREA

DJIBOUTI

MADAGASCAR COMORES

SEYCHELLES VERDECAPE

MAURITIUS MOROCCO

WESTERN SAHARA

MAURITANIA

SENEGAL GAMBIA

GUINEA BISSAU

SIERRA LEONE

LIBERIA GUINEA

CÔTE D’IVOIRE

MALI NIGER

CHAD

CAMEROON

GABON CONGO

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

CONGO NIGERIA

BURKINA FASO

LIBYA ALGERIA

TUNISIA

SAO TOMÉ AND PRINCIPE

EQ G Megacities 2014

Megacities 2030 Large cities 2014 Large cities 2030

25 total population

20 15 1510 108 6 2 4

x million

Source: City population data/estimates from UN DESA, urban population growth rates calculated by IFs version 7.22

Map 3 Africa’s current and emerging megacities and large cities, 2014 and 2030

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Harvesting the demographic dividend? or dancing on volcanoes?

probably both, and with global consequences

The opportunities The challenges

■ Population growth and urbanization → major growth in demand → hinterland economic transformation, including agricultural expansion (in area, volumes, and productivity, Africa’s ‘green evolution’);

■ In East Africa: reaping the benefits of climate change-driven improvements in rainfall;

■ Young, energetic people → innovations in production and lifestyles;

■ Information revolution will continue → well-informed youth → political demands for better lives and more equality in opportunities;

■ As a result of increasing migration → more remittances;

more innovation;

■ Growing connectivity → regional integration → growing importance of African Union;

■ Rapid development of green energy solutions;

■ Major industrialization for African consumption; growth of African multinationals; also increased FDI in industry and services;

■ Expansion of entertainment industry, and religious en- trepreneurship;

■ More bold leadership by economic and political elites at urban, national and continental levels;

■ More protection of infant industries.

■ Increasing pressure on land and water; threats to re- maining forests and wildlife; threats to tourism;

■ At the expense of nature, biodiversity and climate stability;

■ In most of Africa (except Eastern): growing drought risks; along coasts: more storm risks and damage by sea level rise, and floods; climate change-related calamity migration;

■ Higher chances of conflicts over natural resources and between people with different (ethnic, religious, national, etc.) identities;

■ Shortfall in African production of food and other basics

→ growing need for imports → balance of trade; balance of payments; and geo-political risks;

■ Employment shortfalls → angry and impatient youth (re: waithood) → political stability risks → growing fra- gility and violence;

■ Erratic food prices → urban revolts → political implo- sion → calamity emigration;

■ Militarization of life in urban centres and in green-energy spots in Africa’s peripheries;

■ Continuous violence in other peripheries, and occasion- ally in urban hotspots of turmoil → more ‘no-go areas’.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons