The influence of decreasing soil fertility on the economic
and political stability in Egypt
Source: (Crane, 2015)
Nienke de Visser 11067993
Maayke Thompson 11030062
Timo van den Berg 10801375
Mees van Milligen de Wit 11056967 Research Report
1. Abstract
In this research an interdisciplinary research on the influence of soil degradation on the political and
economic stability in Egypt will be introduced. Both the aim and the purpose of this research will be
assessed by providing a theoretical framework in which relevant theories are explained. A problem
definition states that soil degrading processes in the Nile Delta are mainly driven by anthropogenic
forces both direct and indirectly (influence of natural trends). This problem statement has produced
a research question and subquestions (listed in the introduction). In order to prevent further
escalation of the problem, an integrated framework demonstrates the integration of research from
different disciplines in order to provide a framework for the formation of effective policy measures
that are necessary for the prevention of future soil degradation in Egypt. The proposed methodology
provides insight into the execution of the interdisciplinary research and the results explain the
prospect of a reinforcing relationship between continuing soil degrading processes and political and
economic stability in Egypt.
This literature report researched how soil degradation in the Nile River Delta impacts the economic
and political stability. Soil degradation is a large problem in Egypt and its processes are mainly driven
by anthropogenic forces both direct and indirectly (influence of natural trends). These causes are
covered by several scientific disciplines, in this case Earth Sciences, Political Science and Economics.
This interdisciplinary paper describes this problem using an integrated framework, on the basis of
the central conceptssoil fertility, political stability and economic stability. This framework can serve
as a tool for the different actors to obtain further understanding of the current processes that
influence soil fertility and stability. Evaluating the framework shows a reinforcing feedback loop
regarding the level of political and economic instability. The Nile delta might be approaching a
critical threshold, and beyond this threshold the system might not be able to self-organise
sufficiently in order to shift back into the old system. Effective legislation, sustainable land use and
reducing the gap between governmental institutions and farmers to find common ground is key in
finding a sustainable solution for the problems in the Nile delta. Further research is needed to find
this solution and to collect detailed data on how resources as water and soils are divided in the Nile
2. Introduction
Egypt is a densely populated country and the population is not equally spread over the total land
area. In fact, 60 million people live on less than 4 percent of the land, almost exclusively in the Nile
Valley, Nile Delta and a few cities along the Northern coast (Kotb et al., 2000). The share per capita
of agricultural land is ca. 0,05 ha in Egypt, which is among the lowest in the world (FAO, 2005).
Furthermore, the Nile Delta is subsiding, largely attributable to reduced sediment load from the river
Nile due to the Aswan Dam and irrigation upstream, as well as geophysical subsidence ( Bohannon, J.
2010; Dumont & El-Shabrawy, 2007). As a result, in combination with sea level rise, seawater
intrudes the delta, causing salinization of soils and freshwater (Yates et al., 1998).
Considering these figures and the high population growth rate (Awad & Zohry, 2005), it is
not surprising that pressure on the agricultural sector and its productivity keeps increasing. Loss of
fertile soil is one of the most common problems in the Nile delta and has affected almost the
complete delta (El-Gunidy, 1989), as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. A map of the Nile delta which indicates the degree of salinization of soils, categorized by darker areas being non-saline to lighter areas being highly saline. Lighter boundary lines are catchment boundaries and dots are groundwater pump stations, adopted from El-Gunidy, 1989.
The Egyptian government has introduced multiple policies in order to prevent soil degradation (Kotb,
et al., 2000). However, solving the problem is complicated due to a malfunctioning authoritarian
regime that has brought about many challenges that change over time (Kawy & Ali., 2000).
The loss of fertile soil may also have serious consequences for the economy of Egypt. In 2013,
agriculture employed 29,2% of the labour force (CIA Factbook, 2013). It is feared that low overall
economic growth, combined with population growth and decreased land productivity will lead to
short-term consumption rather than long term investment (Yates et al., 1998). This might severely
harm the stability of the economic future of Egypt. It is relevant to examine how soil degradation will
influence the political and economic stability in Egypt, because it is of large essence that the
previously mentioned problems are being dealt with, as the Nile river and its fertile delta are of great
As the issue of loss of soil fertility is affected by land use practices, natural trends, political and
economic policies that cause both damage and loss of soils, it is important to look at all of these
perspectives (Kotb et al., 2000). The loss of soil fertility meets the requirements to be qualified as a
‘complex system’ because it meets most of the stated properties of a complex system proposed by
Rammelt (lecture, 2017). Scientific research in an interdisciplinary manner is crucial to address this
topic to capture the complexity and broadness of the problem of soil degradation in the Nile Delta
and its consequences. Solely focussing on one scientific area will not cover all relationships, causes and consequences regarding the overexploitation of fertile soil in the Nile Delta.
The objective of the research is to assess the conditions and consequences of the
overexploitation of a finite resource such as fertile soil and thereby analysing the relation of political
and economic stability on soil degradation. Moreover, this report aims to present a framework of
the problem that can be used in future research on reducing overexploitation or for introducing new
policies that can help shift Egypt towards more economically viable and sustainable alternatives.
This paper will examine the following research question: how will soil degradation in the
Nile River Delta impact the economic and political stability in Egypt? In order to answer this research
question two sub-questions are formulated:how is soil fertility affected in the Nile Delta ? and: How
does a decrease in soil fertility affect the stability in the Nile Delta?
The study will be structured as followed; firstly, a theoretical framework will define concepts
such as soil fertilityandstability.Second, a methodological section will include the operationalisation
and elaborate on the interdisciplinary integration of the research. The results section will provide the
findings of the the research and formulate an answer to the research question. The report will be
finalized with a conclusion and a discussion which will present specific recommendations for further
2. Theoretical Framework
The theoretical framework explains different concepts from the different, scientific disciplines to find
overlaps and contrasts and thereby interlinking these concepts.
Soil fertility
Soil fertility is a complex concept that is still evolving as new research is conducted. For this research
however, the following definition is adopted from Karlen et al. (1997) as it is the most common
definition: "the capacity of a specific kind of soil to function, within natural or managed ecosystem
boundaries, to sustain plant and animal productivity, maintain or enhance water and air quality, and support human health and habitation”. As this concept is naturally a more earth science-related
concept, the definition by Karlen et al. also links the ecosystem services of soil to stability. If a
threshold (ecosystem boundary) is passed (Folke et al., 2010), when present trends linked to soil
degradation will continue in the Nile delta, it is evident that a soil is less able to provide maintenance
of livelihood, habitat and other services for the human population. This reduced ability to sustain the
population in the Nile delta in the future will decrease both the economic and political stability.
Economic stability
With regards to the concept of economic stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
published the definition that is currently leading and is the most followed by scientists and policy
makers:
Economic stability refers to avoiding economic and financial crises, large swings in economic activity, high inflation, and excessive volatility in foreign exchange and financial markets. Instability can increase uncertainty, discourage investment, impede economic growth and hurt living standards.[…] The challenge for policymakers is to minimize instability in their own country and abroad without reducing the economy’s ability to improve living standards through rising productivity, employment, and sustainable growth (IMF Factsheet, 2017).
This definition stresses the importance of continuity of economic activity and the absence of
economic crises. In case of instability, a nation's economy does not function properly, which might
lead to economic distortions, thereby changing the economic situation for the worse.
Furthermore, this definition sets out a clear task for policymakers to strive for as little instability as
possible. This shows that in the view from the IMF, policymakers are the stakeholders that are
responsible for reducing economic instability, as they are the ones that are able to actively take
measures. In this case, these policy makers will mostly be the Egyptian government. However, their
ability to mitigate economic instability is closely connected to the functioning of the government.
Therefore, the concept of political stability will be discussed in the next paragraph.
With regards to Egypt, the Nile Delta is economically particularly important as it accounts for 60
percent of the agricultural land and 60 percent of the population in Egypt (Yates, 1998).
Furthermore, it hosts a number of highly populated cities, such as Alexandria, Port-Said, Rosetta and
Damietta (El-Raey, 1997). As for the rest of the country, desert and uninhabited land represent
about 95% of the total land area (Ghar et al., 2004). In 2013, agriculture employed 29,2% of the
labour force (CIA, 2013). At the same time, urbanisation is an inevitable process due to economic
development and rapid population growth, which still leads to a noticeable loss net loss of
agricultural land (Ghar et al., 2004). Apart from the current economic implications, such as increasing
land prices, future risks have also been assessed. In the scenarios of Milliman et al. (1989) losses
to subsidence and dammed rivers. El-Raey (1997) expects severe economic losses due to subsidence and sea level rise as well, since this will reduce the available agricultural land considerable.
Political stability
In order to define the concept of political stability in Egypt it is important to understand how the
‘ruling’ authoritarian regime in Egypt has come into power and how this regime exercises this power.
The ‘ruling’ authoritarian regime in Egypt refers to the individuals who ‘exercise power’ for a certain
period of time. In Egypt, the regime usually consists of the president, his close family and a small
group of ‘elite’ including carefully selected party, intelligence and military officers (Kienle, 2001).
When coup leader Gamal Abdel Nasser became prime-minister in 1954 and president in
1956, he ruled unchallenged up until his death in 1970. Nasser’s regime was not beneficial for the
growing income inequality in Egypt and brought about the challenge of millions underemployed and
poor citizens who lived in economic insecurity (Levitsky & Way, 2005). After his death in September
1970, Nasser was succeeded by Vice-President Anwar al-Sadat. President Sadat’s regime came up with several open-door economic policies and increased economic liberalization. With Soviet funding, he completed the Aswan High Dam which had great impact on industry, irrigation and
agriculture in Egypt (Blaydes, 2010). In October 1981, President Sadat was assassinated by Islamic
extremist and succeeded by Vice-President Hosni Mubarak. President Mubarak imposed the State of
Emergency, restricting assembly, freedom of expression and political activity in Egypt. In early 2011,
the beginning of a period also known as ‘the Arab Spring’, anti-government demonstrations started
to occur in Egypt. President Mubarak was forced to step down and hand over power to the army
council. He went on trial in August 2011, charged with ordering the killing of demonstrators. In June
2012, Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, narrowly wins the presidential election
(Blaydes, 2010).
When looking at these important political events, it becomes clear that most policies that
are put forth by the ruling Egyptian regime represent a rational response to the challenges it was
facing. In a political system, there are several political actors involved that have different
assumptions, goals and aspirations. Political actors work to solve problems, resulting in a series of
short-term decisions that accumulate into a set of policies (Pierson, 2004). The relationship between
regime and state becomes complicated, due to the fact that the Egyptian state is large and has the
tendency to promote policies that contradict each other (Poggi, 1978).
The short timeline presented in the paragraphs above indicate that the political system in
Egypt has been far from stable in the last 60 years. Not only have successive regimes and state
leaders introduced policies that contradicted those of their predecessors, violent demonstrations
and even revolutions have made the evolution of political action in Egypt very unpredictable.
3. Methods
In order to conduct this research, the following methodology has been used. Data was gathered by
making use of secondary scientific sources. This implies that this information has been acquired by a
researcher and has been integrated in this study. Due to the limited availability of time and
resources was it not possible to collect primary data. For this research, both qualitative and
quantitative papers have been used. Acquiring the data has been done by studying and evaluating academic papers for an extensive period of time.
In sampling the data, there has been a focus on articles from scientific journals that have Egypt
locations have been used as well, wherever it was useful to provide more context. With regards to
the origin of the cited researchers, data was gathered from both Egyptian researchers as well as
from non-Egyptian researchers. This choice has been made because on the one hand, Egyptian
researchers may have inside information about local practices and may be better able to interpret
their results in the right cultural context of Egypt. This could be valuable for the research. On the
other hand, researchers with a different origin might have the ability to evaluate Egyptian practices
and traditions from an outsider's perspective. This external view may be refreshing and therefore
contribute to the research. There has been tried to use to most recent data as possible, in order to
decrease the risk of data. However, in some cases it was useful to cite older papers, as the change
over time in certain doctrines was an addition for the research. This occurred for example for data
from the political science perspective. To understand several current phenomena, it is crucial to have
a basic understanding of the policy history of Egypt. This provides a justification for using older
secondary sources. In conclusion, the authors of this literature study have tried to keep data as
independent and diverse as possible.
The search strategy that has been applied can be divided in different phases: firstly, the different
disciplinary concepts have been studied separately, to achieve a basic understanding of the relevant
subjects. Secondly, the disciplinary definitions have been compared in order to find connections and
similarities. In order to cross this disciplinary boundaries, the search strategy has been expanded
towards merely interdisciplinary papers.
The analysis of the data follows a similar pathway. In the first phase, the source is being appraised by
assessing how the research has been performed, what its results are and how much it is cited by
other researchers. In the second phase, the fit with this research has been investigated. Papers that
contained context in line with this research made this research more convincing, whereas papers
that showed contrast with the rationale of this paper where reason to further research that topic.
By following this method, the authors were able to present a clear answer to the research question
in the results and conclusion.
3.1 Interdisciplinary Integration
In order to perform an interdisciplinary research, it is of importance to define both the linkages
between the involved disciplines and the conflicts that may rise by different approaches towards the
subject. The integration process takes place based on the analysed linkages, aiming to merge all
interdisciplinary lenses into one framework.
In order to analyse this complexity it is necessary to find ‘common ground’ between the different
disciplines. Repko (2016) clearly explains how ‘common ground’ can be formed in order to analyse
different conflicting disciplines in an interdisciplinary approach. Because this research focuses on the
influence of both soil fertility on the political and economic stability and the influence of the political
and economic stability on soil fertility it is of essence to find ‘common ground’ and approach this
problem from an interdisciplinary perspective.
Due to numerous involved disciplines and concepts in the Nile delta considering the soil
fertility problem, common ground between the different disciplinary insights have to be created in
order to integrate towards an interdisciplinary framework. As earlier stated, the integration
techniques provided by Repko (2016) will be used as a method to integrate the different disciplines
and form common ground. In this research, the extensionmethod by Repko (2016) is used to expand
the meaning of an idea beyond the domain of one (sub)discipline into the domain of another
disciplines interlinks them. Consequently, the different causal links or relations between different
concepts can be mapped or arranged (Repko, 2016). The result of the process of this extension
method is visualised in figure 3.
Figure 3: Integrated framework, visualising the different disciplinary insights in one interdisciplinary framework. For this framework the extension method of Repko (2016) is used.
This integrated framework shows the interactions between the different disciplines. The most
important observation is the interconnectedness between the concepts, except for Sea level rise, all
concepts influence each other and therefore create reinforcing feedback loops. In the case of the
Nile delta, these reinforcing feedback loops have negative consequences for the stability of the
system. Reinforcing loops in general have the tendency to destabilize a system and might even shift
a system into another state. However, looking at it the other way around, it can be seen as an
opportunity because it causes a system to change (Meadows, 2008). The integrated framework will
be analysed in the results section of this research report. The different interconnections will be
explained and analysed, furthermore the meaning of these linkages will be presented.
Despite the fact that this integrated framework is an abstract view of the actual situation it gives
insight in the interaction between the different concepts and actors. With this framework it is
possible to answer the stated research questions and subquestions in an interdisciplinary approach.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that not all involved actors are studied and thus not incorporated in
this abstract integrated framework and therefore not all interactions are taken into account.
7.1. How soil fertility is affected in the Nile delta
Because the problem of loss of soil fertility covers multiple disciplines, this problem exists of a large
number of interconnections between different elements of the system in the form of feedback loops
which for example influence several scientific disciplines.
The Aswan High Dam (AHD) has been named by various authors as a negative influence on the
availability of fertile soil in the Nile delta. It has altered the natural flow and sedimentation cycles
from the Nile, causing a disappearance of the annual floods in the Nile delta (Bohannon, 2010;
Stanley & Warne, 1998; Negm, 2017; Abd-El Monsef et al., 2015).
The Nile delta is subsiding due to compaction of the clayey soils that once were deposited by the
river Nile (Stanley & Warne, 1993; 1998). This loss of land is not compensated anymore by sediment
from the Nile, because of the blocking of sediment by the Aswan High Dam. This means that arable
land is in a trend of disappearing into the sea, especially in relation to the projected sea level rise
and related increased coastal erosion. When the dam was constructed in 1960, it was seen as a
political project from Nasser, with comparisons between the dam and the building of the pyramids
to boost nation-building (Van der Schalie, 1974). However, side-effects were mostly overlooked. The
increased subsidence due to the lack of sediment, in combination with projected sea level rise due to
the global warming theory and therefore increased coastal erosion, will further decrease the area of
arable land.
In addition to the increasing subsidence and sea level rise which lead to loss of soil availability and
fertility, poor land use practices by the periphery put even more pressure on the agricultural lands.
In the Nile delta, excessive irrigation, human intervention in natural drainage, improperly time use of
heavy machinery, poor water quality and the absence of conservation measurements are the key
processes causing loss of soil fertility in the Nile delta (El Baroudy, 2005; El Baroudy, 2011; El
Baroudy, 2014; Elewa & Nahry, 2008; El-Kway et al., 2011; Mohamed et al., 2013; Morgun & Kovda,
2011; Shalaby & Tateishi, 2007). These processes need to be defined in order to be applicable for
different stakeholders.
Conservation of water is closely related to excessive irrigation and is defined as the capacity to reuse
water. The reuse of water can be achieved through several water-saving methods. Compaction due
to heavy machinery is defined as the increase in bulk density due to increased pressure (g/cm 3)
(Mohamed et al., 2013). Water quality is measured by the electric conductivity (EC), temperature,
pH, ionic composition of major and trace components and total dissolved solids (TDS) (Masoud,
2014; Wahaab & Badawy, 2004) Lastly, poor human intervention in natural drainage systems can be
defined as the extent to which human negatively interfere with natural drainage systems and
thereby causing water logging which is measured in the height of the water table (Abdel-Dayem, &
El-Safty, 1993; El Baroudy, 2011). These processes are mostly used as a response to lower yields due
to decreased soil fertility (El Baroudy, 2011; Shalaby & Tateishi, 2007). Furthermore, these processes
are usually carried out to increase the amount of available water. At first hand these processes might
seem to be beneficial for farmers because of increased yields over a short period of time, however,
over a longer period of time these processes severely increase the loss of fertile soil and thereby
decreasing soil fertility and consequently decreasing yields (Kotb et al., 2000 ). In addition to this, the
absence of floods from the river Nile due to the Aswan High Dam cause salinization and pollution of
soils in combination with the projected sea level rise. The delta is not ‘rinsed’ of polluted water
anymore due to floods and the increased water table leads to an increased evaporation. Pessarakli
& Szabolcs (1999) state, concerning the fertility of soils affected by increased salinity, that for
lead to salt stress by plants, seriously hindering crop yield and growth. This further affects the fertility of soils in the Nile delta.
The periphery in the Nile delta was and still is heavily dependent on the same type of resource
namely, water and fertile soil. Therefore, little differentiation within the agricultural industry has
occurred. As a result, it can be argued that the periphery is currently in the social trap of path
dependency (Boonstra & de Boer, 2014). This means that the periphery counters the loss of soil
fertility with processes that eventually further increase loss of soil fertility. Path dependency might
even lead to reinforcing feedback loops (Boonstra & de Boer, 2014; Meadows, 2008).
Because the Nile delta is heavily dependent on fertile soil and water, multiple scholars researched
the past and current high rates of loss of soil fertility in the Nile delta (Elewa & Nahry, 2008; El-Kway
et al., 2011; Mohamed et al., 2013). Therefore, knowledge seems to be abundant. However, loss of
fertile soil is still increasing in the Nile Delta (Mohamed, 2016).
In conclusion, multiple factors that decrease the fertility of soils in the Nile delta can be divided in
two main categories. The first category includes consequences for the fertility of soils due to the
altered water regime of the Nile river and the trend of rising sea levels. Subsidence, coastal erosion,
salinization and water logging tend to be examples of these negative consequences. Furthermore
the loss of fertile soil, incurred by the periphery in the Nile delta further diminishes the soil fertility
by excessive irrigation, intervening in the natural drainage system of the delta, improperly time use
of heavy machinery, poor water quality and the absence of conservation measurements.
One important actor in the system that causes the periphery to continue these poor agricultural land
use practices, further degrading the land to a point of adverse yields, is the Egyptian authoritarian
regime (Bush, 2007).
Figure 2: Location of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) in Egypt (Source: Heldal, T., n.d. Assessed on 21
November 2017, retrieved from: http://www.quarryscapes.no/images/Egypt_sites/aswan_loc.jpg ).
President Nasser’s regime was not beneficial for the growing income inequality in Egypt and brought
about the challenge of millions underemployed and poor citizens who lived in economic insecurity
(Levitsky & Way, 2005). During Nasser’s rule, protests in Egypt’s peripheral regions occurred as a
reaction to changes in tenancy law that had kept Nasser’s reforms from giving rights and economic
security to land tenants and rural poor (Bush, 2007). Since 1987, small-scale farmers had repeatedly
suffered from market reforms, withdrawals of state guarantees, increased poverty,
misunderstanding over land boundaries and struggles with access to irrigations (Bush, 2007).
After his death in September 1970, Nasser was succeeded by Vice-President Anwar al-Sadat. President Sadat’s regime came up with several open-door economic policies and increased economic liberalization. With Soviet funding, he completed the Aswan High Dam which had great impact on
industry, irrigation and agriculture in Egypt (Blaydes, 2010), as mentioned earlier in the result section
of this paper. In October 1981, President Sadat was assassinated by Islamic extremists and
succeeded by vice-President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak started to dismantle Nasser’s redistributive
reforms from the 1950’s and 1960’s, but his counter revolution only worsened rural poverty and
failed to raise agricultural productivity. Furthermore, Mubarak imposed the State of Emergency,
restricting assembly, freedom of expression and political activity in Egypt, making it hard for the
oppressed to express their dissent (Bush, 2010).
One of the most violent food riots and opposition to authoritarian governmental policies occurred in
2008. At this point, more than half of Egypt’s population was living below the poverty line. Egypt was
severely food insecure (Bush, 2010). Anger in peripheral regions over everyday struggles were
fuelled by price inflation. Farmer mobilization challenged the increasing privatization of land and
local inequality, but the opposition was very uneven (Bush, 2010). The food riot that occurred
offered a glimpse of responses from oppressed peripheral regions to failing policies created by the
authoritarian regime, which the government only countered with violence and palliatives of
temporary price controls. It almost seemed as if governments waited for the market to lose its
volatility because this was an easier practise than addressing issues of agricultural policies (Bush,
2010).
vIt is important to create a link between the failing policies created by powerful Egyptian
authoritarian regimes and the failing agricultural practices exercised by farmers in peripheral regions
that keep increasing the degradation of fertile soil in Egypt. A theory that can help to understand this
connection is the resource dependency theory which is based on the fact that power and resource
dependence are directly linked. Pfeffer & Salancik (1978) state that this linkage comes into being
because resources are a basis of power and actors depend on resources. As political or economic
environments contain several actors, resources required by one actor are often in the hands of other
actors. Originally independent actors can therefore be dependent of each other; actor A’s power
over actor B is equal to actor B’s dependence on actor A’s resources.
So how can the resource dependency theory and its core concept be applied to the Egyptian case of
declining fertile soil? Although the Nile River flows through Egyptian land, its water is considered to
be a scarce natural resource due to a rapidly growing population, a limited quota of Nile water and
to wide desert lands where main drinking and irrigation water originates from underground sources
(Afifi, 2009). More than 97 percent of Egypt’s freshwater emanates from the Nile of which it spends
86 percent on agriculture (Wiebe, 2001). Even though the country has the longest history of water
engineering and management in the world, Egypt is facing some key development challenges
Like in in many other countries, the water crisis in Egypt affects the poorer regions, or
periphery, the most. Nearly 70 percent of the poor or food insecure people live in these peripheral
areas (Wiebe, 2001). Communities in these areas depend of the Nile for fertile soils (water, irrigation
for crops). One could state that the situation in Egypt is in line with concepts of the resource
dependency theory, which notes that resources flow from a ‘periphery’ of mostly poor and
underdeveloped regions to a ‘core’ of wealthier and developed regions (Bush, 2007). Peripheral
regions in Egypt are dependent on a resource of which the management is controlled by the current
governmental regime via policies that fit to their best interests. The resource fertile soil is handled by
uninformed and poor peripheral regions but the yield from the resource is controlled by the
government, which has resulted in severe economic distortions.
The discussed imperfect land and capital markets can also significantly influence the
decisions of farmers whether or not they will try to control soil erosion. Land prices are the most
reliable indicator that a farming household will have of the effects of soil erosion on land
productivity (Barbier, 1997). However, rural land markets are distorted by the governmental policies,
as discussed above. Consequently, the costs of soil erosion, in terms of future crop productivity and
income, may not be reflected in, or is not even related to the price of land (Barbier, 1997). As a
result, the lack of effective markets distorts the farmers decision as to whether an investment in soil
protection is worthwhile (Barbier, 1997). Furthermore, poverty clearly constraints farmers ability' to
manage soil fertility (Barbier, 1997). For a large group of small-scale farmers in Egypt, land
productivity, and therefore household income, is declining and there is limited access to capital
and/or alternative economic opportunities (Sowers, 2011).
Thus, farmers have the option (and sometimes do not even have the possibility to do so) to protect
the soil because of future productivity and income potential, even though this choice is not reflected
in the price of the land, or to exploit the soil for immediate gain today. This makes the opportunity
costs of soil conservation in Egypt extremely high (Barbier, 1997). As a result, due to economic
distortions, farmers do not have an incentive to improve their land use and to protect their soils.
Since the 1980's the Egyptian government has been taking strict measures in order to reduce the
pressure on agricultural land (Ghar et al., 2004). Legislation that prohibits appropriation of
agricultural land for urban purposes has been issued as well as land use legislation (Ghar et al.,
2004). However, Ghar et al. (2004) concluded after a land monitoring research that the urbanisation
process still has led to a noticeable net loss of agricultural land. Apparently, the government is not
able to protect the productive agricultural soils. Even more, Bohannon states in his paper published
in 2010 that environmental policies regarding water availability have little to no effect. Basically the
greatest power that the Egyptian government has, is the control of the influx of water into the Nile
delta (Stanley & Warne, 1998; Bohannon, 2010). But the key to effectively use that water for
agriculture in the Nile delta, lies in effective policy making in that specific area.
Assuming that farmers have the possibility to adjust their land use, Barbier (1997) argues that
several phenomena can affect the farmers perception of the costs and benefits of controlling soil
erosion. These are market, policy and institutional failures such as insecure tenure or ownership of
the land and distorted market prices for input and output (Barbier, 1997).
All of the above elements are present in the current economy of Egypt. As discussed above, Egypt
has a turbulent history of governmental involvement and reform policies. This also applies to the
tenure and ownership of land, where uncertainty about property relations accelerated migration from the countryside into the great cities (Malm & Esmailian, 2013).
Furthermore, Egypt has a long tradition of governmental subsidies. During the period 2001-2011, more than 20 percent of total governmental expenditures were spent on subsidies.
(Ghoneim, 2012). A significant part of those are food subsidies. However, the food subsidy system is
put under pressure by inefficiencies, related to corruption, waste and lack of right targeting
(Ghoneim, 2012). Because the food subsidies make the state the largest buyer of wheat (about 30
percent of the wheat production), the Ministry of Social Solidarity is able to set the leading food
price (Malm & Esmailian, 2013). These practices have suffered greatly from corruption, as it turned
out that influential people had private companies that benefited from manipulating the prices of
wheat (Ghoneim, 2012). This is a clear example of both institutional failure as well as a distorted
market price for output and is an obstruction to a free and well-functioning market. In addition,
small scale farmers are often not able to manage. Now salinization is speeding up, farmers see their
harvests fail more often. As a way of coping, they pour sand on their land to elevate it (Malm &
Esmailian, 2013), change to rice cultivation (Bohannon, 2010) and pumping up groundwater (Stanley
& Warne, 1998;El-Agha et al., 2017). But sand is the property of the owners of the land on which it
is found, which makes it a commodity in private hands; on the sand market, prices are constantly
rising (Malm & Esmalian, 2013). The lack of monitoring and effective regulation of groundwater and
surface water use (Bohannon, 2010;El-Agha et al., 2017) also leads to a ‘tragedy of the commons’,
where farmers pump up water and use land elevation techniques, íf they have the resources,
creating serious problems for agriculture in the Nile delta in the long term. This creates a division
between farmers, the poorer farmers have to abandon their land, while those who stay are the ones
who can afford the sand (Malm & Esmalian, 2013). This distorts the free market even further.
In conclusion, the market distortions, mainly caused by government policies affect economic
stability. The Nile Delta is of high importance for the agricultural economy of Egypt. Therefore,
declining productivity due to soil degradation obviously has negative consequences on the economic
stability. In the earlier discussed definition of economic stability, policymakers are held responsible
for economic stability. In this case, the Egyptian government has the difficult task to reduce economic distortions in order to reduce soil degradation.
7.2 How a decrease in soil fertility and political and economic stability impact one another
The relationships between all concepts have been illustrated in the integrated framework (figure 3).
The arrows show the causal connections. When taking the relationships illustrated in the integrated
framework into account, the structure and presentation of the results can be anticipated as
followed: the two main actors, being the government (policies) and farmers in peripheral regions
(cultivation), both (in)directly contribute to poor agricultural practices. These poor agricultural
practices together with factors such as sea level rise and enhanced subsidence due to sediment
blockage by the AHD, account for almost all loss of fertile soil.
Moreover, malfunctioning governmental policies regarding the agricultural sector and poor
agricultural practices executed by farmers in rural areas therefore (in)directly lead to economic
distortions which in turn puts more pressure of the government and the farmers and thus, leads to
an even greater loss of fertile soil. From both the results in paragraph 6.1 and the integrated
framework, it becomes clear that multiple feedback loops occur; forcing the entire system to keep
reinforcing itself.
Distance and a lack of communication between the government and peripheral regions lead to a
continuous loss of fertile soil, which in turn leads to more political malfunctioning and more detachment between the government and the periphery. This phenomenon can be explained as followed; when state institutions are weak and budget procedures lack transparency, resource
dependent countries tend to undermine democratic governance and generate authoritarian governments (Wantchekon, 2002). According to Dahl (1971), an uneven distribution/a lack of/a
declining stock of resources can push actors to try and influence the behaviour of actors that are in
grand possession of the required resources. Furthermore, extreme inequalities in the distribution of
key resources often go with similar inequalities in political resources. In other words, a country with
extreme inequalities in resources stands a very high chance of having extreme inequality in the
exercise of power and hence to an authoritarian regime. It is often these authoritarian regimes that
incite the opposition (peripheral citizenry) to resort to political violence in competing for political
power and thereby generating political instability (Wantchekon, 2002). Taking this into account, the
complexity of the problem can be simplified, which can help to clarify the interconnectedness of the
illustrated concepts. A potential limitation of this structure can be that other influential factors may
be overlooked. However, these factors are likely to fall outside the scope of our disciplines and
thereby outside the scope of our research, or are too large and/or complex to fit within our system
8. Conclusion, discussion and recommendations
This paper has examined the following research question; how will soil fertility in the Nile River Delta
impact the economic and political stability in Egypt? Sea level rise, subsidence and poor human land
practices are the processes leading to severe loss of soil fertility in the Nile delta region. These
processes decrease both political and economic stability by increasing the gap between the
periphery and the authoritarian governmental regime. It is evident that continuous soil degrading
practises will indeed impact the future development of political and economic stability. However,
the answer to this question is far from unambiguous and needs more, elaborate research to provide
a relevant framework for stakeholders to sustain the future of the Nile delta. In the process of this
research it became clear that the current level of political and economic instability will in turn impact
the ongoing phenomenon of loss of soil fertility. This reinforcing feedback loop might have a
disastrous effect on all involved actors because it has the potential to further destabilize the system
shifting the system towards a new stable state where salinization and infertile soils make it
impossible for the large population that depends on agriculture to sustain. The Nile delta might be
approaching a critical threshold, and beyond this threshold the system might not be able to
self-organise sufficiently in order to shift back into the old system. In order to break these reinforcing
and recurring phenomenons, action by different actors is needed. However, this research recognizes
Egyptian governmental institutes as the actor with the most power considering soil fertility (and
inherently fresh water) as resources, knowledge and legislation and might therefore be the key in
breaking this feedback loop. Effective legislation, sustainable land use and reducing the gap between
governmental institutions and farmers to find common ground is key in finding a sustainable solution
for the problems in the Nile delta. It is relevant for further research to find this solution and to
collect detailed data on how resources as water and soils are divided in the Nile delta among farmers
and to gather specific, quantitative data on water use, salinization and land use and to structurize
this data for effective policy making.
The provided interdisciplinary framework can serve as a tool for the different actors to obtain
further understanding of the current processes that influence soil fertility and stability.
Consequently, these actors might be able to collaborate in order to cope with the increasing soil
degradation. As earlier stated in the interdisciplinary integration, not all actors are taken into account and therefore the integrated framework is a simplified model.
In this research only a small part of the complexity of the problem of soil fertility in the Nile Delta is
analyzed. Earth science, economics and political science are used as a basis for this interdisciplinary
literature review. However, there are more disciplines involved in this problem which can play an
important role in revealing and clarifying certain feedback loops such as social sciences and human
geography to identify key factors in population dynamics in the region and where to effectively
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