The Energy Transition And Natural Gas Use: How to escape a lock-in? : how conflicting policies influence the gas use lock-in, hampering the advance of the energy transition in the Netherlands

The Energy Transition And Natural Gas

Use: How to escape a lock-in?

How conflicting policies influence the gas use lock-in, hampering the

advance of the energy transition in the Netherlands

Bart van Manen – 10777318

Bachelor thesis Urban Planning

Thesis project: Political Ecology

Supervisor: Beatriz Pineda Revilla

University of Amsterdam

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ABSTRACT

Environmental change is continuingly affecting peoples livelihoods, therefore the current fossil fuel based energy system needs to change. However, the fossil fuel use is so well-embedded in society a lock-in effect has occurred. The Netherlands is dealing with a similar situation, the so-called gas use lock-in. This gas use lock-in, is in turn hampering the advance of the energy transition and in order to advance with an energy transition, this lock-in needs to be escaped. The research has identified one major influence to the gas use lock-in; the conflicting nature of policy. Dutch policy on gas is

conflicting with that aimed at the environment. A year-long focus of policy aimed at the use of natural gas, has created a situation in which the system of natural gas use and its according policy are well-embedded in society. In turn, it is proven difficult for conflicting environmental policy to get a foothold. The decision-making, causing the conflicting nature, is influenced by different financial stakes, discrepancies in policy of different governmental levels and the natural gas lobby in the Netherlands. However, this conflicting nature of policy is changing. Following the current trends in environmental awareness, more policy is made accordingly and the Dutch government is changing its legislation on gas. With the use of transition management (a Multi-Level Perspective on transitions), more niche developments and a regulatory incentive for change, the gas use lock-in might be escaped. In turn creating an opportunity for an energy transition to take place in the near future.

CONTE

Abstract...3

1 Introduction...5

2 Theoretical framework...7

2.1 The Multi-Level Perspective...7

2.2 Transition management...9

2.3 Carbon lock-in...10

2.4 Policy documents...12

3 Methods...15

3.1 Research methods and design...15

3.2 Selection of cases...15

3.3 Methods of data collection...16

3.4 Method of data analysis...17

3.4.1 Interviews...17

3.4.2 Policy documents...17

3.5 Operationalisation...18

4 Analysis of data...19

4.1 History of policy and decision-making...19

4.2 Conflicting policies hampering the transition...20

4.3 Results...23 5 Conclusions...25 6 Discussion...26 7 Acknowledgements...27 8 References...27 9 Appendices...29 9.1 Appendix A:...29 9.2 Appendix B:...36 9.3 Appendix C:...42 9.4 Appendix D:...50 Y Figure 1: Levels of the Multi-Level Perspective (Geels, 2011)...7

Figure 2: Model of transition management (Geels, 2002)...9

Figure 3: Sources of lock-in (Adopted from: Unruh (2000)...11

1

I

Current (world-) problems often concern environmental issues and the negative impacts these could possibly have on society. The changing climate is one of the largest issues countries are facing today (Goudie, 2013). The effects of climate change are becoming more widely known and awareness on the issue is increasing. The fact that climate is change is mainly caused by anthropogenic influences, is unambiguous (Goudi, 2013; IPCC, 2014). It has affected society and will continue to form a threat in the future. One of the biggest contributors to climate change is the energy sector. 35 percent of the world’s emissions is directly related to energy production and in other sectors energy production indirectly is responsible for GHG emissions (IPCC, 2014). Impacts regarding energy production and usage are the main drivers of environmental issues, in particular fossil fuel-based energy. For instance, in the Netherlands fossil fuel-based energy production accounts for as much as 81.4 percent of the total energy produced (CBS, 2014). Which is directly attributing to the negative impacts on the climate. In order to overcome the issues the current way of energy production has, this thesis will argue that an energy transition from fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable energy sources, is needed. An energy transition is a necessity in order to mitigate issues regarding climate change (Verbong, 2007; Meadowcroft, 2009). The energy transition, the inevitable shift away from cheap, centralized, largely fossil-based energy systems, is one of the core challenges of our time (Verbong, 2012). The first signs of an energy transition taking place can be noticed already. Regulations on supranational and national level on air pollution, greenhouse gases (GHG), water pollution and renewables in energy production are set in place. The regulations on renewable energy resources are especially relevant, since these imply an energy transition. However, with only four percent of the Dutch energy supply coming from renewable sources, the Netherlands does not make the regulations on renewables set by the EU or even its own standards set, causing the energy transition advancing at a too slow pace (Energie akkoord, 2013).

One cause for the slowly advancing energy transition in the Netherlands, are insufficient and conflicting policies. On the one hand the Dutch environmental policy is ambitious and seemingly sufficient. The ‘Energie akkoord’ (2013) states that 14 percent of the energy should be from renewable sources by 2020. Yet these policies do not follow through as EU- and national targets are not met. One could argue that the Dutch policy on gas is conflicting with the environmental policy, as the use of gas is still a priority for the Dutch government. Since the 1960’s natural gas is the prime fossil fuel source for energy production. A gas distribution network, connecting the whole of the built environment to gas pipes, was constructed shortly after the discovery of natural gas field in the province of Groningen. Furthermore, in 2005 the Dutch government decided to distinguish the Netherlands as the so-called ‘gas-rotonde’ (Algemene Rekenkamer, 2012; van Foreest, 2010). The Netherlands became an important node in the gas distribution network. Gas captured in Europe is transported to the Netherlands and from there distributed over the North-Western parts of Europe (Algemene Rekenkamer, 2012). This shows the conflicting nature of both policies; the will to increase the percentage of renewable energy sources versus the increase in gas use. This issue can be defined as the carbon lock-in or gas-use lock-in effect. Certainly there are other problems hampering the advance of the energy transition, such as the lobby of multinational companies for fossil fuel use, public perception or the higher efficiency and profits that fossil fuel use have over renewable energy resources (Sims, 2003). However, the conflicting policies are identified as most important, as policies often entail the broader set of institutional means in which society acts.

The presence of the current gas infrastructure, the abundance of gas in Groningen and the distinction as the ‘Gas-rotonde’ causes a lock-in effect where the natural gas keeps being used. In other words, since the means to use gas are in place, we use it. This attitude indicates a certain inertia of the problem; although the negative effects are known, the gas is used since it is more

convenient. Unruh (2000; 2002) identifies this as the ‘carbon lock-in’, in which the fossil fuel-based energy system remains the general discourse. Unruh (2000; 2002) argues that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale. The inability to shift away from cheap, centralized fossil fuels, natural gas for the Netherlands, whilst there exist alternatives and the negative climate effects are known, can be defined as the carbon or gas lock-in (Unruh, 2000). The availability of gas, provides a level of independence in energy production. However, the dependence on gas has steadily increased and is now opposing the possibilities for an energy transition. Another indication of the increased gas use is the profitability and efficiency of fossil fuels such as gas. The presence of gas in Groningen greatly contributes to the national income of the Netherlands. On the one hand the lock-in of gas use shows the persistence use of fossil fuels, while on the other hand, some neighbourhoods in the Netherlands are designed without connection to the gas network or infrastructure (Gemeente Heerhugowaard, 2009; Gemeente Amsterdam, 2016). Examples of these neighbourhoods are the De Draai in Heerhugowaard and parts of Amsterdam, such as the Houthavens. This in fact shows the possibilities of an energy transition towards a society without gas of fossil fuel use.

The conflicting policies, the overall attitude towards gas and sustainability and the ongoing use of gas is hampering the advance of the energy transition, yet in some cases the use of gas is no longer necessary. The research in this thesis, building upon the issues addressed above, aims to find out how the lock-in effect of gas use hampers the advance of an energy transition in the Netherlands and consequently how it can be overcome. In particular the effect of the conflicting nature of policy in the Netherlands. Eventually, this research can provide insights to the problem and for current and future policies whose goals is to speed up the energy transition. To guide this research on the energy transition in the Netherlands a main research question is used. The stated research problem and research aim, have resulted in the following research question:

How is the lock-in of gas use in the Netherlands, hampering the advance of the energy transition towards renewable resources and how could it be overcome?

To help answer the main research question stated above, the following sub-question will be investigated:

How do current conflicting policies on gas and the environment hamper the advance of the energy transition in the Netherlands?

In order to answer the research question and it supporting sub-questions, firstly, the most important theoretical approaches will be explained to create a well-structured framework. On this framework the research is based and guided. Secondly, the methods of research are elaborated upon in the section on the methodology. This section will clarify the research method, method of analysis, the data selection and the selection of the case study. Following the method section, the analysis of data is presented. This section will analysis the gathered data in detail and accordingly present the findings. The section on the analysis will also provide the answer to the sub-questions of this research. The results of this analysis will be shortly summarized in the conclusion of this research, which will ultimately formulate an answer to the main research question. Lastly, remarks on the research and recommendations for further research are presented in the discussion. The interview data is presented in the appendices of this research.

2 T

This chapter of the research will provide the theoretical framework. This framework consists of the most vital theories to support this research on the energy transition in The Netherlands and help answer the research questions. Consequently it will provide a frame for the research to follow and assess the issue of the energy transition. Since this research focusses on how the current gas infrastructure in the Netherlands is hampering the advance of the energy transition and how it can be overcome, it is important to know how the general discourse or perspective on sustainability and fossil fuel use is. Therefore the first section will elaborate upon the multi-level perspective and how this relates to energy transitions. The second section will focus on the way transitions can be managed. The third section elaborates on the concept of the lock-in effect and in particular the gas use lock-in. Lastly, the government policies regarding the energy transition and fossil fuel use, in particular gas use, are elaborated upon.

2.1 T

M

-L

P

The concept of the multi-level perspective (MLP) can provide a solid framework for analysing transitions (Smith, Voß & Grin, 2010). This therefore accounts for an energy transition as well. The process of an energy transition is not a process that happens overnight. In fact, as is elaborated upon more in the section on transition management, transitions in general require a long-term vision and endurance, since it takes a long time for it to take place (Geels, 2011; Rotmans, Kemp & van Asselt, 2001; Kemp, Rip & Schot, 2002). The fact that transitions go over long periods of time, can be partly explained with the concept of the MLP.

Ingeneral the Multi-Level Perspective consist of three levels all interlinked with each other; the landscape level, the regime level and the niche level. Following the concept of MLP, transitions are viewed as non-linear processes that result from the interplay between the three levels (Geels, 2011). In Figure 1 the levels in the MLP are placed in hierarchical order, in which the landscape level represents an encircling environment; the level in which both the niche and regime level act. The regime level refers to the general discourse in a society on certain topics. And lastly the niche level can be identified as the level wherein innovations take place that disturb the regime level and ultimately the landscape. Each level of the MLP refers to a certain phase of the transition, in which in a level higher up in the hierarchical order (niche to regime, regime to landscape) is more stable than the latter (Geels , 2011). However, although the levels are in hierarchical order, Geels (2011) argues that the regime level is most important, since transitions are defined as shifts from one regime to

another.

Figure 1: Levels of the Multi-Level Perspective (Geels, 2011).

The regime level of the MLP represents the ‘deep-structure’ accounting for stability in an existing system (Geels, 2011). The level of regimes can consist of user practices or institutional arrangements or regulations (Geels, 2011; Kemp et al., 2002). A regime shows the general discourse in society, which for this research would be the use of fossil fuels and in particular the use of natural gas in the Netherlands. The regime is both the level in which society functions and the outcome of actions in society. Society behaves according to the institutional regulations and user practices at hand, while also shaping these institutions and user practices (Giddens, 1984). An existing regime, such as the fossil fuel use in the Netherlands, is characterized by a lock-in (Geels, 2011). This stable trajectory is constantly adjusted by innovations in the niche level of the MLP. Moreover, it can be disturbed in such a way, the path opens for a new trajectory to take its place; an energy transition.

The ‘lowest’ level of the MLP, the niche level, is the level in which innovations take place. The niche level represents the area in which actors aim to innovate in such a way, that can change the regime level (Kemp et al., 2002). Since the regime level is a locked-in level in the system, changing it is not easy. However, niches are crucial for transitions, because they provide the seeds for systemic change (Geels, 2011). For the niche level to drastically impact the regime level, the network of innovations or actors must become stronger. This implies the agreement on a certain use of technology, such as solar panels or natural gas as a mean for energy production. Single innovative developments cannot impact the general discourse much. Moreover, the acceptance of such changes needs to be more broadly articulated. If so, the niche developments can gain momentum and disturb the regime level.

The landscape level of the MLP can be distinguished as the external sphere influencing both the regime and the niche level. The landscape level can represent demographical trends, ideologies or societal values. More specifically, for this research that would be, sustainability or globalisation as general trends. The landscape level is equally important to induce transitions as the niche level. Where the niche level provides innovations that can disturb regime level, the landscape level can provide the solid basis for these niche innovations to find a way into the regime level. This is true if sustainability, as a discourse, becomes widely accepted and thus is represented in the landscape level.

The Multi-level perspective provides a well-structured general framework for analysing a (energy) transition. Figure 2 shows the interaction between the three levels of the MLP and how these interacting levels can induce a transition. Each transition might be one of a kind, general patterns for a transition resulting from the interaction between the different levels, can be identified. Geels (2002, Figure 2) shows the following three processes: ‘’(a) niche-innovations build up internal momentum, (b) changes at the landscape level create pressure on the regime, and (c) destabilisation of the regime creates windows of opportunity for niche-innovations’’. Rotmans et al. (2001) shows that there are several phases in a transition; emergence, take-off, acceleration and stabilization. Figure 2 roughly shows these phases. Figure 2 represents, based on MLP, the way transitions can take place. The figure shows how innovation in the niche level takes place and how a change in landscape level are both influencing the regime level in such a way, that it breaks ‘open’. This breakthrough clears a pathway for another regime to take its place; a transition.

2.2 T

Closely related to the Multi-level Perspective is the theory on transition management. Where the MLP provides a framework which shows the process of a transition (Figure 2), the concept of transition management shows how management can steer or induce transitions. As the research is on transitioning from a fossil fuel-based energy system to renewable energy resources, theories on transition management are important to analyse.

Transitions are complex changes in society’s way of doing or behaving. A transition can be defined as a gradual, continuous process of change where the structural character of a society (or a complex sub-system of society) transforms (Rotmans et al., 2001). For these gradual changes of societies’ character, some given rules can be identified. Firstly, as stated in the definition, transitions are complex issues that takes place in different levels of society, involving different actors. This shows the need for a multi-dimensional approach, such as the MLP. Rotmans et al. (2001) argues that transitions consist of three levels; micro-, meso- and macro-level. These levels are closely related to the concept of MLP. The micro-level more or less represents the niche level, the meso-level represents the regime and the macro-level consequently relates to the landscape level. Secondly, it is argued that transitions are spanning a time of at least a generation (25 years) or more (Rotmans et al., 2001; Geels, 2011; Kemp et al., 2002). Furthermore, all transformations or changes made in society are unique. This means a general outline for managing transitions cannot be created. However, illustrated below, some general characteristics, based on these insights, need to be taken into account when steering or inducing a transition. Since transitions are complex long-term processes, with high levels of uncertainty, involving many levels of society and thus actors, transition management can provide a management or governance basis for these transitions to take place in a structured manner.

Figure 2: Model of transition management (Geels, 2002).

Rotmans et al. (2001) argue that transitions can be steered by public decision-makers, or governments. To do so Rotmans et al. (2001) identified several general characteristics of transition management, based on insights in transitions. To steer and induce transitions, long-term thinking of at least 25 years is necessary as a framework to shape the policies on the shorter terms. Secondly, a multi-level, multi-actor, multi-domain way of thinking must be applied (Rotmans et al., 2001). Thirdly, a focus on learning and a learning discourse must be created; learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning. Fourthly, also following the MLP, system innovations alongside system improvement need to be brought about (Rotmans et al., 2001). Lastly, a wide playing field needs to be maintained, which implies that a lot of possibilities for ways of transitioning, need to be kept open (Rotmans et al., 2001).

According to Rotmans et al. (2001), it is not so much the aim of transition management to actually realize a (energy) transition. The main aim of transition management is to work towards an environment in which a transition or improvement of the system can take place. Rotmans et al. (2001) argue that in some cases it is enough to improve an existing system to overcome problems rather than the system undergoing a full transition. It might also be that problems turn out to be less severe than seemed at first sight. By constantly re-evaluating all transition goals and instruments and determining goals in accordance with all actors, a transition might take place successfully.

As mentioned, each transition is unique, therefore there is no set-piece policy or guideline to manage transitions. Rotmans et al. (2001) state that ‘the various transition management steps are ultimately determined through a collective learning process of development round’. However the process of transitions, and thus its management, can be illustrated by certain basic phases of a transition. To summarize, a transition objective is set beforehand. These objectives are not untouchable necessities, since they are constantly subject to re-evaluation and adjustments. However some standards have to be set, which guarantee an acceptable level of risk (Rotmans et al., 2001). Following from this, sub-objectives have to be set as well. Objectives that work towards the end-goal of the transition. To set objectives, a transition vision has to be made. Rotmans et al., (2001) states that these visions need to be both realistic yet appealing and imaginative. With this actors can be mobilized and support of these actors can be arranged. An important part of this is public support; this will be elaborated more upon in the paragraph on public perception. A bottom-up approach can contribute greatly to the advance of a transition (Rotmans et al., 2001). Lastly, which is the general message of all transition phases, the process of evaluation and learning. Each objective is evaluated to see whether or not it is successful. Firstly the sub-goals are evaluated to show the progress of a transition. If these aims are not met, one could learn from the process and use this to successfully complete the other aims. Following the sub-goals, the transition process in general is evaluated in order to follow the progress and, if needed, adjust the process in the right way (Rotmans et al., 2001). With these steps transition management can be used to complete a (energy) transition.

2.3 C

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The current discourse on energy use and production in the Netherlands is focussed on the use of fossil fuels. More specifically, the use of natural gas. In fact, this discourse is noticeable around the globe. Fossil fuels are the prime source of energy and this is heavily embedded in social, economic and technical structures. Because of this heavily embedded structure of fossil fuel use in our societies, it is proven to be difficult to transition to renewable energy sources. Following this issue, Unruh (2000; 2002) identified the endless and more or less inevitable use of fossil fuels, as the carbon lock-in. Unruh (2000; 2002) argues ‘’that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale’’. It is asserted that the carbon lock-in causes carbon-saving

technologies and a possible energy transition, to fail despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages (Unruh, 2000; 2002). Society is highly dependent on the use of fossil fuels and the energy gained from it and therefore cannot go without it. As stated in the introduction to this research, it can be argued that the Netherlands is dealing with the effects of a gas use lock-in. Which consequently might be hampering the energy transition. Industrial economies have been locked into a fossil fuel based energy system, through a process in which technological and institutional developments evolve in such a way, they become predominantly focussed on certain specific practices (Unruh, 2000). In this case that would be the use of fossil fuels. Unruh argues that technological developments, if successful, can cause countries to follow a trajectory of this technology (fossil fuel-based energy supply). The same accounts for institutional developments; if a certain practice is adopted, policy will be made in favour of this. Thus causing society, industry, government to follow these institutional and technological structures. These developments co-evolve, causing a persistent phenomenon to arise, which is difficult to escape; the (carbon) lock-in effect. Figure 3 shows the sources of the lock-in and some examples of it. Unruh (2000) argues that a chosen pathway in policies, cannot be overturned easily. In other words, once a certain direction of policy is chosen, the system adapts to this direction and cannot transition towards another policy direction easily. For this research, the history of gas and the distinction from the Netherlands as the ‘Gas-rotonde’, somewhat restricted the Netherlands to the gas discourse (van Foreest, 2012; Unruh, 2000).

It is however possible to escape this so-called carbon lock-in, or as stated in this research the gas-use lock-in. Following from Unruh’s earlier research on the carbon lock-in effects, he addresses solutions to escape this lock-in. Because of the self-reinforcing nature of the lock-in effect, or techno-institutional complex (TIC) as Unruh (2000; 2002) states it, it is proven difficult to alter the pathway of developments from ‘the inside’. Almost all policy decisions taken within the current inert system are adopted by the locked-in system rather than changing it. This calls for an exogenous policy adjustment or radical change in way of thinking. This is, according to Unruh (2002), where the core of the problem lies; it is not so much the ability to change of technology or science, but rather the organizational, social or institutional changes that limit the diffusion of technologies and thus a transition. Technology and science develop fast enough, which is proven by solutions and knowledge on environmental change, yet the institutional factors lack this ability to develop fast (Unruh, 2002). It can be argued that these institutional factors are a discourse. This relates to the MLP and in particular the landscape level. However, transitions, both technologically and socially, have taken place and so can the energy transition away from the fossil fuel-based system (Unruh, 2002). In which the

Figure 3: Sources of lock-in (Adopted from: Unruh (2000).

11 Table 1. Sources of lock-in

Lock-in source: Examples: Technological

Dominant design, standard technological architectures and components, compatibility Organizational

Routines, training, departmentalization, customer-supplier relations

Industrial

Industry standards, technological inter-relatedness, co-specialized assets Societal

System socialization, adaptation of preferences and expectations Institutional

Government policy intervention, legal frameworks, departments/ministries

technological aspect of the transition is of less importance than the necessary social-institutional change.

Unruh (2002) identifies three possible ways to escape the lock-in of fossil fuel-based energy systems. Which all three could be successful at providing escaping alternatives ‘’(1) make no change to the system, but treat emissions, (2) modify selected components or processes of the system, but maintain the overall system architecture and (3) replace the system entirely’’ (Unruh, 2002).

Unruh (2002) respectively named these approaches end-of-pipe (EOP), continuity and discontinuity. The EOP approach is the least disruptive to the current system, yet complicated to conduct. It focusses on externalities which are in some cases natural reactions, not necessarily unwanted (Unruh, 2002). The continuity approach aims to preserve most of the current system characteristics, while innovating within and between the system. It works within the system’s limits created by the lock-in (Unruh, 2002). It aims to maintain ‘’as much similarity as possible between the existing system and the new configuration’’ (Unruh, 2002). The last approach, the discontinuity approach, is asserted as most extreme. It suggests a radical change, which implies abandoning or replacing the current system as a whole. In general, with each approach the change demanded, increases. It is therefore asserted that the inert nature of locked-in systems increases with the disruption of the system. In other words, ‘’the greater the change, the greater the resistance’’ (Unruh, 2002). This causes continuity approaches, or EOP if feasible, to have the highest preference.

Furthermore, it is argued that policy, aimed at altering the system, is effective when exogenous forces provide an incentive for change. This might induce or at least enhance the process of a transition. Six of these exogenous and radical events are identified: ‘’(1) a crisis in the technology involved, (2) regulation, (3) technological breakthrough, (4) changes in taste, (5) niche markets, and (6) scientific results’’ (Unruh, 2002). Each of these impacting the way policy is inhibited by the system. The locked-in systems somewhat provide in their own stability (Unruh, 2002). Therefore it can be argued that exogenous forces identified above, are necessary to induce change. Individuals often become locked-into the system since there are few alternatives to do otherwise (Unruh, 2002). However, within the system, the likes of an energy transition are brought forward. Individuals can induce change by collective action, and thus can play a role apart from exogenous forces. Governments often represent different roles in such matters where they need to address conflicting policies (gas use versus environment) (Unruh, 2002). So exogenous forces are beneficial to inducing change, while change can also come from within the system if collective action is sufficient.

2.4 P

Policy documents play a vital role in the advance of the energy transition. For this research the policies, laws, scenario documents or agreements, regarding the energy transition are most important. To structure this section of the theoretical framework, two main categories of policies are identified; policy on gas and environmental policy. Each category consists of the most vital policies regarding the subject. For the category on gas policies the following policy documents or agreements are identified: the decision by the Dutch government in which they distinct themselves as the ‘Gas-rotonde’, the Dutch gas-law and the ‘Gilde-agenda’ by the ‘Koninklijke Vereniging van Gasfabrikanten in Nederland’ (KVGN). Moreover, general legislations regarding gas exploitation is shortly elaborated upon. As for the environmental policies, international agreements, European environmental policies, the ‘Energie-akkoord’ and precedents by the Dutch government, and the SDE+ are used. Each document will be elaborated on shortly. Two additional documents are the zoning plans of ‘De Stad van de Zon’ and ‘De Draai’, located in Heerhugowaard. Certainly the documents on gas and environment are closely related, however the documents are categorised in order to simplify the analysis.

First of all, the policies and agreements on gas use. Most vital for the advance of the energy transition are the distinction by the Netherlands as the ‘Gas-rotonde’ and the Dutch gas-law. The ‘Gilde-agenda’ by the KVGN is more supportive towards an energy transition. As mentioned in the introductory section of this thesis, the Dutch government decided to distinct themselves as the so-called ‘Gas-rotonde’ (van Foreest, 2010). The Netherlands, according to the ‘Gas-‘Gas-rotonde’ policy, should be a key part of the European gas infrastructure. Gas from different parts of Europe is transported to the Netherlands and in turn distributed over Europe again (GasUnie, n.d.). With this policy the Dutch government aimed at (re-)securing their position as an influential player in the gas sector. With the gas from the province of Groningen and acting as a key player in the gas distribution network, the economic benefits for the Dutch GNP would remain at a high level. Since 2005 until 2014 8.2 billion euros have been invested in this strategy by the Dutch government (Algemene Rekenkamer, 2012). The Netherlands always played a key role in the gas sector and wishes to sustain this role. Which in turn is an influence for the advance of the energy transition.

Since gas has been the prime source of energy production since the 1960’s, a lot of policy is adjusted to natural gas use. A prime example of this is the Dutch gas-law. This gas-law contains all rights for all stakeholders in the gas sector; from governmental institutions to producers, to consumers. Especially significant for this research are the rights of consumers regarding gas use. The gas-law states that, freely translated, ‘’every consumer is entitled to at least one connection to the gas distribution network’’ (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2017). If every consumer is entitled to a connection to the gas distribution network, this has severe implications for the advance of the energy transition. Shifting away from natural gas use towards renewable energy resources would imply discarding the gas connection. Yet the law somewhat prohibits this. As stated in this research, these policies might conflict with environmental policies. Therefore the Dutch government is currently revising the law (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2017). In June 2017 the Ministry of Economic Affairs opted a change in the gas-law. The revised law will state that instead of ‘’at least one connection to the gas distribution network’’, every consumer is ‘’entitled to at least one connection to the heat distribution network’’ (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2017).

Lastly, the ‘Gilde-agenda’ by the KGVN. This document states the views of all actors involved in gas production, transport and distribution and its maintenance. The aim stated in the ‘Gilde-agenda’ is ultimately reaching a zero carbon dioxide emission state in the Netherlands in 2050. The document assesses how the gas sector can contribute to this aim. In general it is stated that, due to the current gas infrastructural system and gas being the prime source of energy, this system is so optimised, that it is somewhat obliged to fulfil a role in the energy transition (KVGN, 2017). It states that gas, of all fossil fuels, is the cleanest source of energy and can contribute to drastically decreasing emissions. (KVGN, 2017). While only doing so, if it contributes to the energy transition and does not create a lock-in situation for other practices to be hampered. The KVGN (2017) identified three different aspects of gas contributing to the energy transition. Firstly, gas and the gas sector as transition catalyser. Since it is the core of the Dutch energy system, it can contribute greatly to speeding up the transition (KVGN, 2017). Secondly, gas as a transition fuel (KVGN, 2017). It is implied that natural gas and other forms such as biogas, are the cleanest sources of fossil fuel based energy. With changing from coal and oil use to gas use, emissions can be decreased easily. And lastly, the use of gas as a sustainable alternative, of which biogas or green gas is part of the more sustainable measures (KVGN, 2017).

The environmental policies also greatly influence the advance of the energy transition. In fact, in most environmental policy documents it is stated that the shift away from fossil fuels is a necessity to overcome the issues of climate change. Often these documents are based on scientific research, which is accordingly translated into policy. National policy is influenced by transnational or

international regulations as well. For most of the Dutch national policy, the regulations set by the European Union (EU) is vital. This is why the national, transnational (EU) and international environmental policy are important to assess. In accordance with European policy on the environment, the Dutch government set up their own environmental policy; the ‘Energie akkoord’. In general, European legislation also accounts for member states of the EU, such as the Netherlands, consequently for environmental policy as well (European Union, 2017; Rijksoverheid, 2017). For the whole of the EU, the European Commission made the so-called ‘2020-target’ (European Commission, 2015). This target aims to reduce the total emissions by 20% compared to 1990, increase the amount of energy produced with sustainable sources up to 20% and, lastly, increase energy efficiency up to 20% (European Commission, 2015). All aim needs to be successfully completed by 2020 or before. Each of these aims applies for the national level of each member state, taking into account the circumstances at hand. It is clear that these aims indicate that an energy transition is necessary.

Currently, these European regulations mainly determine national environmental policy, yet the Netherlands has a rich history in environmental policy. As for the ‘Energie akkoord’, many precedents has been set into place starting in 1928 with the so-called ‘Natuurschoonwet’. Most of the legislation is replaced to meet current standards, thus whereas it has contributed to current legislation, it does not contribute to the research. However, a document such as ‘Wet Milieubeheer’ from 1993 is closely related to the ‘Energie akkoord’ (2013) (Rijksoverheid, 1993). This document states the all the environmental requirements for every sector and how to measure, penalize or handle these requirements are stated. Based on this law, many decisions regarding the environment are made (Rijksoverheid, 1993). Currently, the ‘Energie akkoord’ contains the most important aims regarding the environment. Of which most important for this research are the demand for increased sustainable energy production and accordingly decreased fossil fuel use, energy infrastructure, energy savings and efficiency. The aims set by the Dutch government for sustainable energy resources, is increasing the share in energy production to 14% in 2020 and 16% in 2023 (European Commission, 2015; Energie akkoord, 2013). This consequently implies decreasing the total use of fossil fuels for energy production. Furthermore, the Netherlands aims to improve its energy infrastructure in order to provide means for the renewable energy to be distributed efficiently in the future (Energie akkoord, 2013). According to the ‘Energie akkoord’ (2013), the total amount of energy use should decrease by 1.5% annually. In 2020 the total energy savings should be as high as 100 peta joule (Energie akkoord, 2013). Lastly, the ‘Energie akkoord’ (2013) states that vast amounts of money will be invested to meet all the European and Dutch requirements. Ultimately to reach the overall aim of making the Netherlands climate-neutral by 2050 (Rijksoverheid, 2013).

While European legislation determines a great part of the national legislation of member states, international agreements determine environmental policy as well. Agreements such as the UNFCCC (1993), the Kyoto protocol (1997) and more recently the Paris Climate Agreement (2016) (European Commission, 2017). The last mentioned is signed by nearly all countries in the world. These agreements do not necessarily state regulations, however as all countries signing the agreement do agree on certain measures that needed; an incentive to act is brought forward. In turn it translates into policy for the countries involved in with the agreement. The UNFCCC (1993) was the precedent of the more widely known Kyoto protocol (1997), which was signed by far more countries (European Commission, 2017). It can be seen as a milestone in environmental agreements and thus policy. The most recent global agreement is the Paris Climate Agreement (2016), which states the necessity and obligation of all involved countries to act upon environmental change.

Following from environmental policy on all the mentioned levels, the Netherlands has set subsidy system or regulations are into place to stimulate the development of renewable energy resources. In particular the SDE+ regulation. This subsidy regulation is relevant since this is the subsidy all sustainable projects, if correct with guidelines, will receive. This is also the case for the

‘Stad van de Zon’. Moreover, the project would not have succeeded if this subsidy system was not in place (J. Bruijn, Personal communication, May 12, 2017, p. 33). The SDE+ is a subsidy regulation from which projects of sustainable nature can make use of (RVO, 2017; Algemene Rekenkamer, 2015). The regulation is divided in several categories; biomass, geothermic uses, water, wind and sun (RVO, 2017). Following from the ‘Energie akkoord’ the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, uses the SDE+ regulation to stimulate sustainable energy production in the Netherlands (RVO, 2017).

3 M

This chapter of the research will bring forward the methods of research which are used to analyse and gather data on the research on the energy transition in the Netherlands. This chapter will illustrate how these concepts and theories, presented in the previous chapter, are used in the research. The chapter will, firstly, elaborate on the specific research methods used. Secondly, the way data is collected for the research is set out and following, the method of analysis will be presented. As a third section, the examples cases used for this research, and the selection criteria, will be presented. Lastly, the chapter will elaborate upon the way the research and the according concepts will be operationalised.

3.1 R

The type of research will provide a structure on which the overall research is based. It states its characteristics and explains data uses or how the method of analysis is compatible to the research. In general there exist two types of research; qualitative and quantitative. A qualitative type of research focusses on the deeper structures or phenomena (Bryman, 2008). This type of research aims to find out why certain events occur. It aims to identify the motives of people or ideas on certain topics. This type of research is of inductive nature, which implies observing or researching an event or process and from this creating a general theory (Bryman, 2008). A specific case-study is an example of such an observed phenomenon. A research type which is of quantitative nature, focusses more on testing a certain theory (Bryman, 2008). Often based on statistical data, it aims to find causalities between variables and then analyses the results. This type of research has a more deductive nature (Bryman, 2008). Since this research focusses on the influence of the gas infrastructure on the energy transition in the Netherlands, it aims to find these influences and how, if even, it influences the advance of the energy transition. This implies addressing underlying effects of the gas infrastructure on the energy transition; the deeper structures or phenomena. This research focus implies a type of research of qualitative nature to be used.

With the type of research, qualitative, identified, the design of this research can be found. The research design provides the basis for the research structure and appliance of the research method. For this research a case study design could be identified. The research focusses on Dutch policy regarding the energy transition. These are identified as policy on gas or gas-use and the environmental policy. The case study for this research, thus, is the policy in the Netherlands. To support the case study research regarding Dutch policy, two cases in the Netherlands serve as an example. These are respectively the projects of ‘Stad van de Zon’ and ‘De Draai, both in Heerhugowaard. Both the example-cases provide insights in underlying processes. Either the differences or similarities of both projects. As these address government policies on gas and the environment as indicators for the influence of the gas infrastructure, the policy regarding the example-cases will be researched as well. The design of this research, therefore is also of theoretical nature (Bryman, 2008). It analyses literature and policy, in combination with two specific examples, to find the influences on the energy transition.

3.2 S

For the research on the influences of the gas infrastructure on the advance of the energy transition, Dutch policy on gas and the environment has been identified. This section will clarify and justify why the policy as case study, is used. It is clear that a case study can provide specific insights for qualitative researches. In general, case studies are used due to the fact they show ‘extreme’ phenomena or are especially representative for the research (Bryman, 2008). Such ‘extreme’ events can be defined as outliers from the general discourse. In this case, policy could be completely unrelated to the general discourse on environment or follow up on certain trends. The neighbourhoods of both the supporting examples are not dependent on gas-use, whereas nearly the whole of the built environment is. The policy case-study provides specific insights in the underlying processes influencing gas use and the gas infrastructure in the Netherlands. In turn it can be used to provide a hypothesis for the whole system or process (Bryman, 2008). By researching a specific case, analysing the results, hypothesising the results, a general theory or answer can be identified to assess the whole system or process.

For this research, as mentioned, two examples are used to support the general case study; ‘De Stad van de Zon’ and ‘De Draai’. Both cases are located in Heerhugowaard, both strongly focussed on sustainability. Since these projects, strongly focussed on sustainability, are located in the same city, and thus fall under municipal and provincial policy. This provides a useful basis to analyse both cases and the energy transition in general. Moreover, both projects embarked at different moments. The project of ‘Stad van de Zon’, first ideas were developed in 1992, whereas the developments of ‘De Draai’ started about ten to fifteen years after. Given this, studying both projects could present a timeline in which changes in thought, process, policy, aims, finance and so on are can be brought forward. It can indicate how views on sustainability and policy accordingly, has changed over time. The main energy supply for ‘De Stad van de Zon’, is provided by solar panels (PV), yet it is still connected to the gas infrastructure (Gemeente Heerhugowaard, 2009). The project of ‘De Draai’, is only partly connected to the gas grid. Its main source of energy is provided by geothermic uses (Gemeente Heerhugowaard, n.d.). This difference in energy supply shows the changing nature of the supply of energy and the difference in the processes of the projects, while both aiming to abandon gas as a main energy supplier.

3.3 M

The data used in the research greatly influences the eventual outcomes of it. Since the research is of qualitative nature, the most important data is obtained from both primary (interviews) and secondary (policy documents and scientific literature) literature. This implies data collected from respectively, interviews and existing literature, more specifically policy documents. Both these sources of data contribute to finding answers for the sub-question stated in the introduction. It, thus, will contribute to the research as a whole. The data gathered from policy documents is vital to this research and is accompanied by the data from interviews. The policy documents and according literature is most important, since the research only makes use of three interviews, due to time limitations. These interviews are by themselves not enough to provide a representative conclusion to the research. However, the data obtained in the interviews are of great importance to support or contrast the data gathered from policy documents and literature. Moreover, it provides more in-depth view, by experts, on the influences of the gas infrastructure on the advance of the energy transition.

The data obtained from the interviews, consists of three interviews. Each interviewee being an expert on their subject. The first interviewee was Joost Bruin, Project Manager City Development at the municipality of Heerhugowaard. He was involved in the process of both cases chosen for this research. Bruin provided insight in the process of both projects, sustainable developments and future

projects. As a second interviewee, Theun Koelemeij, Senior Advisor Space and Sustainability at the municipality of Amsterdam, was interviewed. He is involved in all sustainability projects in Amsterdam, of which the transition from gas to non-gas energy supply is most useful. Koelemeij can provide insights in conducting such a transition on a smaller scale than national. Lastly, Elbert Huijzer, Senior Strategist at Liander, is interviewed. Since Huijzer works at a firm, specialized in gas practices and distribution, he can provide insight in the use of natural gas in the energy transition. The data from policy documents will be elaborated upon further on in this research.

3.4 M

The following paragraph will elaborate upon the method of analysis, which for this research is the discourse analysis. This method of analysis focusses on the general way of thinking or the general perspective on certain topics; the general discourse (Bryman, 2008). The goal is to determine why and how certain discourses are or become the main stream of thought. It is an interpretative method to discover how and why society carries out its practices the way it does (Bryman, 2008). For this research this would be the use of fossil fuels and more specifically the use of gas in the Netherlands. Another important part of the discourse analysis as a method, is to seek the role of power and knowledge (Bryman, 2008). This might imply the way power is distributed or what the power relations are in a system. Which for this research is the way policy influences the existence of the gas infrastructure or persistent use of the gas system. Knowledge also determines how certain practices, systems or discourses are viewed. For this research the way this is way of thinking is visible in policy-making.

3.4.1 Interviews

Category of coding: Associated colour: Juridical, Law or Policy Yellow

Economic Green

Technological Grey

Perception Blue (lighter)

Planning process Blue (darker) Socio-institutional Red

Other Purple

To thoroughly analyse the data gathered from the interviews, the recordings of these interviews are transcribed first. These can be found in the appendix of this research. After these transcripts are made, the data is colour-coded to retrieve the appropriate data for answering the sub-questions and ultimately the main research question. In the following table (Table 2) the colour coding scheme is presented. The data is colour-coded manually, since the amount of interviews does not require the use of coding or analysing programs. Firstly, to conduct the coding of the interview data, the transcripts are read in order to find the general line of thought. These general lines of thought are in turn converted into categories, which structure and summarize data. According to these categories, different quotes from the interviews are placed under these categories. By doing so, quotes supporting the argumentation in the analysis section, can be located and used more quickly and efficiently. Consequently, using these categories contributes to the analysis process which answers the main- and sub-question.

3.4.2 Policy documents

Not only the data gathered form the interviews has to be analysed properly, the data from the policy documents has to be as well. As mentioned in the theoretical framework several policy documents

are used and analysed for this research. Some more thoroughly than the other, since these contribute to the research itself more. For this research therefore a distinction between two types of reading can be made. Either a scanning way of reading and more close-reading method. Firstly the scanning-method. As mentioned in the theoretical framework section, a part of the policy document used for this research solely provide a historical framework to base the argumentations of the conflicting nature of policy in. Moreover, it provides a historical timeline in which the example cases can be placed. Since these policy documents only provide a historical framework and timeline, they do not necessarily contribute to the argumentation in the analysis section. Therefore these documents are scanned in order to decide whether or not they are suitable for the historical framework and are related to the research. The following policy documents are approached in a more scanning-method: 1) Kyoto Protocol (1997), 2) UNFCCC (1992), 3) Wet Milieubeheer (1993), 4) Paris Climate Agreement (2015), 5) Energie Akkoord (2013) and 6) zoning plans of ‘Stad van de Zon’ and ‘De Draai’ (Gemeente Heerhugowaard).

As for the close-reading method, the policy documents especially for the analysis section of the research are used. Close-reading entails a reading approach in which a piece of literature, in this case a policy document, is read with great attention (BRON). Whereas the literature read in a more scanning approach, the literature that directly contributes to the analysis and thus the argumentation of this research is read more thoroughly. This in order to capture the exact arguments or citations stated, instead of the general line of thought or discourse of the article. Some documents are both scanned and closely read, as they contribute to both the historical context and the analysis. The following documents are approached with the close-reading method: 1) Dutch gas law (Gaswet) (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2017), 2) The distinction as the ‘Gas-rotonde’ (2005), 3) Gilde Agenda by KVGN (KVGN, 2017), 4) Energie akkoord (2013), 5) European regulation (EU commission, 2015), 6) SDE+ regulation (RVO, 2017) and lastly (7) both the zoning plans of ‘Stad van de Zon’ and ‘De Draai’ (Gemeente Heerhugowaard).

3.5 O

This section will further elaborate upon the usage of the concepts defined in the theoretical framework. It will define how variables in the research fit in the most vital concepts and how this, in turn, is used to answer the main and sub-question. With the research method, design and type, the selection of both the case and data and the method of analysis defined, the way this is used in the research can be illustrated.

As mentioned in the theoretical framework, the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), will provide the main structure for the analysis conducted in the research. The MLP closely relates to the research design and type. Following the identified research design, it seeks to find the deeper structures and underlying processes, which can be done by using the MLP as a guideline. Rotmans et al. (2001) states that a transition or system improvement needs to be viewed from a multi-level approach, which in this research the is the MLP identified by Geels (2004;2010) amongst others. The MLP provides the general discourse in society and can thus explain the deeper structures in society. This ‘characteristic’ of the MLP, is in close relation to the method of analysis. The discourse analysis aims to determine the general discourse on certain practices in society. The other concepts in the theoretical framework each support the analysis based on the MLP. The gas use lock-in concept provides one underlying process that creates the current inert discourse on gas use. The concept of public perception provides insights in society’s views in contrast to gas use, environmental issues and a possible energy transition. Lastly, the concept of transition management provides the means for transitioning away from the general discourse and how this might be conducted.

The research focusses on the influence of the gas infrastructure on the advance of the energy transition in the Netherlands. Based on the following main research question: How is the lock-in of gas use in the Netherlands, hampering the advance of the energy transition towards renewable resources and how could it be overcome? Accordingly the following research questions are used: 1) How do current conflicting policies on gas and the environment hamper the advance of the energy transition in the Netherlands?; To support the sub-questions, as mentioned before, two examples cases are identified; ‘Stad van de Zon’ and ‘De Draai’. These will provide further proof for answering the sub-question and the main research question. These questions are answered by a structured analysis, based on policy documents, literature and interviews. Each question is supported by the concepts defined in the theoretical framework.

4 A

This section of the research will present the analysis and accordingly the results of this analysis. To conduct the analysis, which ultimately will answer the main research question, a history of environmental and gas related policy is evaluated. This will in turn support the analysis of current conflicting policies. The gathered data from the scientific literature, policy documents and interviews will be the basis of the analysis. The analysis is supported by the concepts identified in the theoretical framework. The analysis consists of two sections. Firstly the ‘History of policy and decision-making’, which aims to evaluate the a timeline of the policies that have appeared regarding gas and the environment. And secondly, ‘Conflicting policies hampering the energy transition’, which elaborates upon the sub-question of this research. It will analyse how existing policies by different governmental levels, might hamper the advance of the energy transition.

4.1 H

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Over time the general discourse in policy has changed. As described in the introduction, the use of gas in the Netherlands has steadily developed, becoming the prime source of energy for the Netherlands. Whereas the energy supply has changed over the years, so has the policy related to it. In order for natural gas to obtain such a large share of the energy supply, legislation on gas use and exploitation has been made. From the discovery of natural gas in the Netherlands around the 1950’s up until the Dutch gas-law, all events have contributed to the establishment of the gas infrastructure and gas use. However, past years not only did the gas discourse in the Netherlands got a foothold in society and politics, the environmental policy did as well. As mentioned before, there is a long history in environmental law in the Netherlands (PBL, 2013). From the beginning onwards, these policies slowly evolved making the Netherlands a frontrunner in environmental policy around the 1980’s and 1990’s, way ahead of most other countries. In that period of time there already existed a vast amount of environmental policy in the Netherlands (PBL, 2013). In the years after, the general discourse on the environment has changed. More attention was given to acting upon environmental degradation, international agreements were made and policy requirements regarding the environment are strengthened. Following the increased amount of awareness, visible in the agreements closed, the Netherlands set up the so-called ‘Wet milieubeheer’ in 1993 (Rijksoverheid, 1993). This environmental law followed up on several international agreements, in particular the UNFCCC. Which was the precedent to the more well-known Kyoto protocol (European Commission, 2015). Environmental policies, agreements and laws were mainly focussed on saving energy and by doing so, reducing emissions. Currently, the agreements and policies, such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the Dutch ‘Energie akkoord’, are focussed more on the energy transition. This change is similar to the transition management concept described in the theoretical framework. By changing the policies’

overall intentions, a transition can be steered towards the desirable end-goal. Whereas the focus in the policies over time has changed, the ultimate goals remained reducing total emissions.

This change in focus is also visible in both example cases in this research. The project of ‘Stad van de Zon’ which followed up on the increased environmental attention, since it started in 1992 (Gemeente Heerhugowaard, 2008). It was even ahead of its time in comparison to other housing projects. As mentioned before, the project’s energy supply is for a great part generated by solar power, while still connected to the gas infrastructure. This shows the need for energy savings rather than fully transitioning away from gas-based power supply. The project of ‘De Draai’, however, shows the changes in policy mentioned earlier. The project’s first houses were built in 2013, around the time of the ‘Energie akkoord’. It was thus based on different policies. Which were in fact more focussed on an energy transition above saving energy, since ‘De Draai’ is not necessarily connected to the gas infrastructural network. As Bruijn (Personal communication, May 12, 2017, p. 36) states: ‘’The project of ‘De Draai’, will be built in phases and at the start of every phase, it will be decided whether or not the houses will be connected to the gas network.’’. While this shows the changed discourse over time, more in favour of an energy transition, it shows the importance of gas since it is still considered. Thus gas is still being an important source of energy, often chosen over a more sustainable manner while these are steered at more and more. This shows the earlier mentioned conflicting nature of policy. Policy on gas and with that gas use, have established itself over the past years into such a strong position, that it currently hampers the establishment of environmental policies. Which in turn hampers the advance of the energy transition. The next section will elaborate upon this conflicting nature of policy further.

4.2 C

The previous section briefly shows how policy has developed over the years. And in turn how this influences the advance of the energy transition. Policies made by the Dutch government, regarding the environment and gas, are identified and it is argued that these policies are somewhat conflicting. The conflicting policies even hamper the advance of the energy transition. The theoretical framework illustrates how a system, focussed on natural gas use, becomes locked-in; the gas-use lock-in. Following the concepts of the MLP, transition management and carbon lock-in, a system that is fully adjusted to certain practices becomes locked-into the use of these practices. Consequently, it is proven difficult to escape this lock in. The policies regarding gas have contributed, and still do, to the lock-in effect of gas use, while action on mitigating climate change is necessary. Thus, whereas environmental policy aims to break through the gas-use lock-in, the policies on gas hamper this. Therefore, this section will analyse how the policies conflict and how this hampers the advance of the energy transition.

In general, following the concepts of the MLP and carbon lock-in, it is a long-term process before practices become strongly embedded in society and the system as a whole. This is also true for the gas use in the Netherlands. Since the discovery of gas in the province of Groningen, the Dutch government embarked on making policy for gas-use. Currently, with the distinction as the so-called ‘gas-rotonde’ in 2005, the use of natural gas and all its infrastructure is profoundly embedded in society (van Foreest, 2010; Algemene Rekenkamer, 2012). Which however, is negatively influencing the advance of the energy transition. According to the Algemene Rekenkamer (2012), the public stakes were never fully assessed when the decision to distinct the Netherlands as the ‘gas-rotonde’ was made. It was unclear whether or not it contributed to a sustainable, affordable and clean energy supply (Algemene Rekenkamer, 2012). Policy-wise, the use of natural gas in the Netherlands has been encouraged for years. It was first asserted that the use of natural gas for energy production was more

sustainable than other fossil fuel uses, such as oil and anthracite or lignite coals (KVGN, 2017). According to Elbert Huijzer it was fairly evident that the Dutch government chose to stimulate the use of natural gas over other fossil fuels. ‘’Since the Netherlands has developed such a well-founded gas infrastructure and has access to their own natural gas supplies, it was the best option’’ (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 48). The ‘gas-rotonde’ strategy was a logical follow-up of the previous gas policy. ‘’Gas is the cleanest source of fossil fuel energy and the general thought in Europe was that natural gas would replace coals and oil as energy producers’’ (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 48). The decision to make use of natural gas had and still has financial benefits for the Netherlands. ‘’The reasoning to do so, was therefore logical’’ (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 48). As a precursor in natural gas use, the Dutch government did not want the Netherlands to be dependent on other countries for their energy supply (Algemene Rekenkamer, 2012). In Denmark a similar phenomenon took place from the mid-20th _{century on. However, due to the lack of natural resources the Danish chose to produce their own}

energy in a sustainable way, with mostly wind energy (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 49). ‘’A 40-year-long consistent policy vision of being self-sufficient and producing energy in a sustainable way’’ (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 49). Whereas the Danish might be locked-in in their energy supply, with sustainable sources, the Netherlands has this with natural gas of which the environmental impacts are far more severe. These examples in fact show how policy can steer towards the use of a certain product, respectively natural gas for the Netherlands and more sustainable sources for Denmark. This might prove, via transition management, a shift in energy supply can be stimulated (Rotmans et al., 2001). With gas use stimulated over the years, it has changed the general discourse. Obtained from the MLP concept, the regime level or general discourse became the use of natural gas. Due to the fact that this system became so efficient and well-embedded in society, ‘’we do not easily shift away from gas’’ (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 49). Considering Rotmans et al. (2001) concept, it is not a necessity at first, because the goal of transition management is not so much the transition itself, yet creating opportunity for it to take place. And with the policy made on gas, it can be argued that gas will continue to play a role in the energy supply. Either in serving role, to support peak demands in power or in processes high temperatures are necessary. As Huijzer stated, ‘’the leading role of gas will change to a more serving role’’. Yet, ‘’for certain practices, gas will always be the most useful solution (E. Huijzer, Personal communication, May 24, 2017, p. 45 & p.46). Koelemeij confirms this by stating that ‘’Gas can continue playing a role in industrial practices’’ (T. Koelemeij, Personal communication, May 10, 2017, p. 42). With this change in role, a transition is not yet made, but opportunity for other forms of energy supply and an energy transition is created (Rotmans, et al., 2001). However, currently, because of the highly developed policy on gas, and the resulting gas-system, it has created a situation in which it is difficult for environmental policies and sustainable practices to find a foothold; the gas-use lock-in (Unruh, 2000).

Analysing the data shows that two key issues, regarding the conflicting policies, can be identified as most vital to hampering the advance of the energy transition. In the first place the general legislation on gas, of which the Dutch gas-law is decisive, versus the environmental policies and the energy transition. Secondly, the conflicting stakes of the Dutch government. To begin with, the current Dutch gas-law states that ‘’every consumer is entitled to at least one connection to the gas distribution network’’ (Rijksoverheid, 2016). This law severely hampers the advance of the energy transition, since the energy transition implies stepping off from natural gas use, while the gas-law states that a gas connection to make use of, is compulsory. This is caused by a long-term policy vision aimed at gas use. Over time the use of natural gas, viewed from a Multi-Level Perspective, has established itself to become the regime level in society; the general discourse (Geels, 2010). Which is now proving to be