Conflict and social divide in Northern Ireland, a distant past?

(1)

Institute of Security and Global Affairs

Leiden University – Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs

Master’s Thesis

Christopher Mulder

Student ID - s2380293

Conflict and social divide in Northern Ireland, a distant past?

Word Count: 23,802

(2)

1

Introduction

In our current society is it fair to say that terrorism is high up on the political agenda, the results of the Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey, which analyses the trends in perceived largest global threats puts terrorism at the second spot on the list, only behind the threat of global climate change (Poushter & Huang, 2018). Looking at the not so distant past, Northern-Ireland (NI) was torn apart by acts of terrorism, more commonly referred to as ‘’The Troubles’’. Social divide and perceived inequalities between the Catholic and Protestant communities were core factors of the problem and culminated in the estimated loss of 3,600 lives between August 1969 and March 1998 (Smyth, 2019). Why is NI relevant to this contemporary research of terrorism?

FIGURE 146 YEARS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS VISUALIZED 1970-2016(ALCANTARA,2017).

Above we can observe each terrorist attack between the period of 1970-2016, most noticeable being NI, the entire country is littered with deadly attacks. Zooming into NI you can observe the following;

(4)

3 This picture shows that the most attacks that led to at least one death be it foreign or domestic terrorism are primarily clustered together within NI between the period of 1970-2016.

Officially the conflict came to an end through the signing of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in 1998, however the social divide and impact of the past can still be seen in this country to this very day and will be analyzed during this thesis.

Inspiration for the topic of this research came in the aftermath of the British decision to leave the European Union (EU). NI voted 56% in favor to remain part of the European Union, however due to the fact that the UK voted to leave as a whole, NI will also be forced to leave the EU (BBC, 2016).

Subsequent plans to leave the EU have however been suspect at best, as this decision has serious potential effects due to the impact it might have on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The main issue that has people on edge in relation to the NI border question is that it has the potential to undermine one of the agreements that was made when the GFA was signed back in 1998, people are starting to believe that hard-borders might be a reality again in NI, which could potentially lead to conflict.

The GFA has often been used as an example of an effective peace agreement, according to the Peace Accords Matrix it is one of the most successful peace accords in the world today, scoring 95% (Kroc Institute, 2015). Furthermore, former United States President Bill Clinton lauded the GFA as a ‘’work of genius’’ (BBC, 2018). There are those that have remained skeptical of its overall effectiveness in the past, where many feel even in 2017, many years after the signing of the GFA, that NI is still a ‘’very deeply divided society’’ (Nolan, 2017). The prominent physical barriers known as the ‘’peace walls’’ were removed, however identity politics still plays a significant role in Northern Irish society.

Why is Northern Ireland being monitored so closely in relation to the Brexit negotiations?

The main reason why NI seems consistently be on the news is due to the fact that no one can seemingly find a solution in relation to the (Northern) Irish border issue that will leave all involved parties satisfied, why they cannot come to an agreement will be further elaborated upon.

The idea of a hard border between two nations requiring security personnel, checkpoints and CCTV might seem like an easy solution, since it can regulate the incoming and outgoing flow of personnel and goods along the Northern Irish and Republic of Ireland border. This is not the case in NI however, this option is to be avoided at all costs as re-imposing a hard border has strong symbolic ties to the Troubles, returning to physical barriers had the potential to increase tension which could escalate to conflict. The option of remaining in the EU Customs Union with a border along the Irish Sea will never be accepted by the DUP, one of NI two major political parties (primarily supported by the nations Protestant population). Arlene

(5)

4 Foster, the leader of the DUP went as far as stating that there can be no Brexit deal that creates a border down the Irish sea as it would segregate NI from the rest of the UK, declaring that this red line that couldn’t be crossed is ‘’blood red’’ (The Guardian, 2019). Current news is clearly an indicator on how far some people are willing to go to avoid a hard border. On the 19th_{of August, in Co. Fermanagh, on the} border with the Republic of Ireland, a remote explosive device was set off, with the specific intention to kill police officers in the area (Diver & Nicholls, 2019). Republican dissident activity is seemingly on the rise again as on September 10th_{a bomb exploded in an area where police officers were taking part in a} security search (BBC, 2019). Those that believe that a hard border is a highly unlikely possibility will be rudely awoken once they read the reports that an old customs post along the border has turned into a construction site, the reality of the return of such checkpoints is steadily increasing, should ‘no deal’ be reached in the Brexit negotiations (Rothwell & Saunders, 2019).

Besides the ongoing Brexit negotiations, there is a further reason why the situation in NI is tense, as the NI political system has collapsed. Since the signing of the GFA, a political system known as

consociationalism has been applied in NI. This system requires the political parties of both the unionists (DUP) and nationalists (Sinn Fein) to come to a complete agreement on all political decisions. The executive collapsed after Sinn Fein pulled out of the assembly when DUP leader Arlene Foster refused an independent inquire after a botched energy scandal cost the people of NI an estimated £480m (Kelly, 2019).

Research Focus & Research question

The stage has been set, with the ongoing Brexit negotiations it seems that Northern Ireland cannot have any winners, only losers. Furthermore, there is no functioning parliament in NI, so how can one rule a country when its rulers refuse to sit down with one another? The scenario of terrorism as a daily part of life in NI, which not so long ago seemed a distant past, is potentially growing larger by the day. This sentiment can be seen in the statement of Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin who warned that NI was ‘’sliding back towards a level of violence not seen since the 1998 GFA’’ (Payne, 2019).

The following research will aim at analyzing the main factors which caused the initial conflict better known as the Troubles, understanding the current underlying social divide in NI, which is causing many to believe there might be a return to the violence. The potential implications that the outcome of the Brexit negotiations might have will also be taken into consideration. Understanding these factors will then allow us to provide recommendations to solve the various issues that are creating social divide and might culminate in eventual conflict. To do this, we must first establish the scope and research question of this thesis which is as follows;

(6)

5

To what extent can the TNC framework explain the historical conflict and current social divide in NI? How the TNC framework will fit in within this research will become clear during the latter half of this chapter.

The official ending of the Troubles occurred in 1998 with the signing of the GFA, acts of terrorism to a lesser extent have continued to occur and the apparent social divide between Protestants and Catholics has remained a problematic and sensitive topic.

Social identity politics still play a significant role within NI society, where there is still a strong sense of mistrust between the communities (Senholzi, 2008). Publicly available educational and housing statistics paint a similar picture of divide, as an estimated 90% of students still receive segregated education (Connolly et al, 2013) and social housing (lower income) still mainly consist of single identity

communities (Frey, 2018). What makes matters worse is that these lower income estates are the breeding ground for terrorist recruitment and activity, Creggan estate in (London) Derry being most infamously shown on the news, the area where journalist Lyra McKee was shot dead in April and the failed bombing attempt against local constabulary forces last September (Evans, 2019). NI seems to be at a crossroads, issues have remained and might boil over into acts of violence, the peace deal signed in 1998 was a step in the right direction, but what do we mean by peace? Is it simply the absence of war, or is it more complicated? While researching the current news trends various sources will often refer to the current peace deal as ‘’fragile’’ compounded by the fallout of the Brexit vote (Steinberg, 2019). In the context of NI how do we go about defining peace? Sociologist Galtung makes a clear distinction between ‘negative’ and ‘positive’ peace. Negative peace simply refers to an environment where a negative aspect ended, such as the violence, whereas positive peace refers to a situation where parties who were previously in conflict with one another, are building towards a more positive relationship with one another, compromising between the parties and showing respect and understanding towards the needs and interests of those involved (Irenees, 2007). Clearly the situation in NI does not fall into either of these categories as violence has consistently reoccured since the GFA, and positive relations between Protestants and Catholics can be seen as questionable at best, divide and mistrust is still widespread and its political leaders refuse to negotiate with one another, leading to NI not having a proper functioning executive for almost a thousand days, meaning crucial issues are going unadressed, civil servants cannot make policy decisions, a lack of accountability, a loss of opportunity for the crucial cross-border collaboration discussions and perhaps most importantly, there is a long-term risk for the deterioration of an already strained community relations in NI (McBride, 2019). Positive peace might be possible in NI, but with Brexit looming that seems like a distant possibility.

(7)

6

Other considered concepts

This research focuses on uncovering the main factors that led to conflict in NI, why it remains a problem today, the role of Brexit and what measures could be taken that in light of Brexit would lead to a

sustainable ‘positive’ peace, avoiding further social conflict. The concepts of Conflict management, Conflict resolution and Conflict transformation can potentially lead us in the right direction. Conflict management states that the root of violent conflicts are due to the vast differences of values and interests between the communities, historical inequality and unequal distribution of power leading to long term resentment and violence. This concept however does not believe that such conflicts can be resolved, and at best managed and contained through compromise. Since we are looking for sustainable longterm peace, this concept is not applicable. Conflict resolution believes that compromise on fundamental needs is impossible, a fundamental shift in how the conflict is framed is needed, this allows for new ideas and relationships what were previously incomprehensible and could potentially solve the root problems. This concept can currently be seen at work in NI, Catholics and Protestants having to collaborate to push through policies, or the Fair Employment and Treatment Order (FETO) which gave voice and opportunities to Catholics who felt underrepresented in the workforce and local constabulary (legislation.gov.uk, 1998). In light of the current situation, it is clear that Conflict resolution is not enough, and will therefor be discarded during this research.

The concept of Conflict Transformation will be the one applied throughout this research. Its focus goes beyond the scope of simply reframing (gaining understanding) and emphasizing on situations that are focused on win-win results, as can be seen in the collapse of the government executive, is simply not always possible. This concept can be seen as a process where relationships, interests, dialogue and the very foundation which the society is founded upon is transformed (Miall, 2004). Within this concept constructive conflict is needed for change, meaning that conflicting parties as well as outsiders with relevant resources will be a driving force for long-term sustainable peacebuilding. This process is slow and gradual in which a variety of actors outside of the political elite can play a crucial role in maintaining peace. This process of conflict transformation can already be seen to a small extent in NI, where studies have shown that intergroup contact between students within integrated students had led to improvements in relation to intergroup contact outside of schools, cross-group friendships and lower levels of prejudice, which overall led to more empathy towards the perceived out-group (Turner et al., 2013). This in an example of relationships and to an extent where the very foundation of NI is being transformed, young students who attend integrated forms of education simply do not perceive the out-group as a threat and thus the conflict is transformed as the issue has simply dissappeared.

(8)

7 Although we have determined to apply the concept of Conflict Transformation within this research, a framework in which this concept can be expanded upon is still missing. The following chapter will analyze various frameworks/models that were considered and why the final choice was determined the most appropriate. For this we will focus on a few ‘’founding figures’’ within peace and conflict studies such as the ones of Paul Lederach, Diana Francis and Edward Azar (Berghof Foundation, 2012).

Viable Framework Analysis

The first framework that would potentially be applicable is that of Paul Lederach, who explains that there are four main components that make up the concept of Conflict Transformation, which are explained below:

1. Personal dimension: How the individual is impacted over the course of a conflict, such as our physical or emotional well-being. Can also positively impact the individual in the sense that it creates an environment to help others and therefor develop positively on an emotional level. 2. Relational dimension: The way in which conflict impacts our face-to-face relationships, how the

way we communicate and interact with one another are affected. Conflict Transformation aims at reducing negative us versus them perception and focuses on increasing mutual understanding. 3. Structural dimension: Focuses on discovering the root causes of the conflict and how our social

structures and institutions are changed by conflict. Structural changes increase public participation and ensures that structures meet basic human needs to reduce the possibility of conflict.

4. Cultural Dimension: Understanding the importance of culture in the context that the way our perceived group interacts can lead to conflict and the ability that culture must respond to conflict. Understanding these cultural patterns allow us to build upon them to constructively handle conflict.

(9)

8 A visualization of this framework can be seen below:

FIGURE 3THE BIG PICTURE OF CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION (LEDERACH,2003).

Inquiry one is the first step, looking at the current situation at hand. Historically, what is at the heart of the conflict, what patterns have continued to arise and what is the current main issue that is unresolved? Inquiry two focuses on a process of working towards the desired outcome in the future and understands that this does not occur in a linear fashion. The current situation is undesirable and therefore we must look for solutions for this issue. These solutions are mainly found by observing the current negative systems and relationships that are in place and discovering the potential for change in the future. Inquiry three focuses on how we respond to the conflict, addressing the immediate issue as well as the underlying problematic relational and structural patterns.

Initially this framework would seemingly be perfectly applicable towards the scope of this researchasit’s a lens through which we can gain an understanding of the underlying societal issues in NI and provides us with a framework that focuses on constructive change that allows for long-term peace. However, there are two main issues that were found with this framework and are as follows:

1. Once significant desk research had been conducted into finding an applicable framework, it became that this version was simply outdated originating from 2003,although potentially applicable within this research, it became apparent that there were simply other more contemporary frameworks that were more viable within the scope of this research.

2. The second issue is that this framework does not expand enough on the potential for regional factors to cause significant disruption towards a nation. Since a portion of this research will focus

(10)

9 on the potential impact that Brexit might have, it became clear that other frameworks would be a better fit.

Researcher Edward Azar was one of the first individuals that attempted to understand why violent events continued to occur in developed nations, which culminated in him defining these examples as ‘Protracted Social Conflicts’ (PSC), this concept was also considered during this research and is defined as follows; ; ‘’In brief, protracted social conflicts occur when communities are deprived of satisfaction of their basic needs on the basis of the communal identity. However, the deprivation is the result of a complex causal chain involving the role of the state and the pattern of international linkages. Furthermore, initial condictions (colonial legacy, domestic historical setting, and the multi-communal nature of the society) play important roles in shaping the genesis of protracted social conflict’’ (Kara, 2018).

As in the first framework, much of this definition can directly be applied towards NI. Catholics often felt deprived of basic needs that Protestants did enjoy. The role of the state was also criticized as the

government (still predominantly Protestant) discriminated against Catholics, giving Protestants

preferential treatment when allocating social housing ('The Northern Ireland Question, 1999). Catholics also felt deprived of an impartial acting constabulary, as during the Troubles the then predominantly Protestant Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was criticized for disproportionately arresting and mistreating Catholic citizens. Catholic representation is now at 32%, but is currently trending downwards, police services should be reflective of its society and a continuation of this situation would be worrying indeed (Moriarty, 2018).

(11)

10 The Berghof foundation for Peace Support expanded on the ideas of Azar’s PSC model which can be be ‘’used to capture both the formation and the transformation (or deformation) of this type of conflict’’ (Miall, 2004). This model can be seen in the figure below:

FIGURE 4TRANSFORMATION OF PROTRACTED SOCIAL CONFLICTS (MIALL,2004)

This figure could be applied to determine the main factors that allow for the formation and transformation of social conflict. The figure could additionally be directly applied to the troubled past of NI, to gain understanding why there are still deep-rooted social issues and could indicate what might occur in the post-Brexit era.

How the situation in NI relates to the five processes is explained below;

1. Context: To understand why NI is playing a crucial role in the ongoing Brexit negotiations, one only

must look at its troubled past. Simply put, the idea of a hard border could potentially lead to events like those that took place during the Troubles.

2. Needs: Recognitions of identity and culture, the focal point of the discussions. The DUP, in line with

protecting its protestant ideals and values refuses to acknowledge any type of border between NI and mainland UK (such as the often-mentioned solution of an ‘’invisible’’ border in the Irish sea) as this would lead to Protestants feeling isolated from the rest of the UK. Sinn Feinon the other hand wants to avoid any form of hard border or physical checkpoint system as these are symbolic reminders of the Troubles, and therefore could be targeted by Republican dissidents.

(12)

11

3. Capacity: Brexit could also lead to significant economic impact for the people of NI and the Republic.

Ireland PM most recently said that a no-deal Brexit ‘’would have very serious impacts on the economy, north and south, and on Britain’’ (Rawlinson, 2019). As mentioned previously, the Government and state is in a period of crisis, due to the collapse of the Executive the legitimacy of the NI government is being questioned, there is a clear stalemate ongoing with the two main political parties refusing to sit down with one another.

4. Actors: Has major ties to the capacity aspect, state actors have only been accommodating to their own

social group, within communal groups violence has been on the rise, most noticeably being the explosion in the Creggan area of Derry.

5. Conflict (outcome): Can be seen as an evolution of Galtung’s previous work on positive and negative

peace. Moving from the current scenario that is on the brink of destructive (violent) conflict into a situation where all parties can not only come to an understanding but learn from one another and transform the very nature of the conflict into an environment of long-term peace.

On paper this model seemingly was a perfect fit, however it was ultimately decided not to apply the PSC model within this research for the following reasons;

1. The PSC model has already been applied to similar research that uses NI as the case study, as we are aiming to add to the body of knowledge, applying the PSC model would simply just be repeating what has already been done (Haverkort, 2013).

2. As one of the founding figures within peace and conflict studies, Azar’s PSC definition is often referred to as it removed the traditional idea during the 1970’s that conflict was based upon the relationship between states, moving more towards analyzing the at the time lesser known struggle of communal groups that were searching for basic needs such as security, recognition,

acceptance, access to political institutions and economic participation (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 116). Such factors might seem obvious now, but this wasn’t the case back then. The Berghof Foundation for Peace Support then further expanded on Azar’s idea, the model of which can be seen in figure 4. The previous model originated from 2004, additional research was required to uncover a model that would be a better fit within contemporary society and the scope of the research. As described by Ramsbotham, Woodhouse and Miall (2018), the prevailing patterns of conflict have changed, and have created a new framework that builds upon Azar’s original idea of PSC. This new interpretative framework is known as contemporary transnational conflict (TNC) and will be applied during this thesis. The second reason as to why the PSC model will not be applied is thus simply that an alternative model was found that not only fits contemporary society better, but builds upon these very ideas that the PSC put forward. The following paragraph will

(13)

12 explain the TNC applicability to the case of NI and the potential impact of Brexit, and expand on why it is a better alternative to the PSC model as adapted by the Berghof foundation.

Justification and elaborating on the TNC Framework

To understand the justification of the TNC framework in relation to the NI case, we must explain its main features. The framework is not simply a theory of conflict, but an analytic structure that builds upon the already existing body of knowledge from various individuals in the field of conflict and peace studies. TNC is an upgraded version of the 2004 Berghof model that expanded upon Azar’s PSC model. Simply put, it is an extension of PSC and takes into consideration the vast global changes that have occurred within our society since the end of the Cold War, something that was lacking within Azar’s PSC model. TNC accounts how geopolitical shifts in power, such as the ‘shock’’ Brexit leave campaign, which in its aftermath was seen as a surprising result by both pro and anti-Brexit voters alike (Greenslade, 2016), can be linked to local sites of confrontation through these various transnational connectors (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 121). An overview of this framework can be seen in the table below;

TABLE 1TNC FRAMEWORK (RAMSBOTHAM ET AL.,2018, P.123)

Looking back at the previously mentioned issues within NI in the Introduction and Research Focus chapters, it becomes clear why this case can be applied within the provided framework of the TNC. Looking at the Troubles from a historical perspective, the social divide and perceived inequalities amongst its population could easily be categorized within levels 3 and 4, such as the previously mentioned issues of segregated education (Connolly et al, 2013), discrimination in relation to the

(14)

13 allocation of social housing, and the clear religious and economic division that is still apparent within NI housing policy (Capener, 2017). The collapse of the NI Executive, which has now surpassed a staggering 1000 days would be analysed through level 3, considering it an example of weak central control, and further deteriorating the previously mentioned strained community relations in NI (McBride, 2019). The issue of social identity, the underlying issues between Protestants and Catholics that have lead to the continuation of mistrust and violence would fall within level 4 and could be seen as a historical context chapter within this thesis. The analysis of the GFA would fall under level 3, which has seen increased criticism and is now under serious threat due to the potential negative economic consequences of Brexit, such as a shrink of the economy by 3% (Campbell, 2019), or the previously mentioned societal issues of a hard border which have strong historic ties to the Troubles (Testa & Specia, 2018). Mentioned previously, 56% of NI voting elegible populated voted in favour to remain part of the EU (BBC, 2016), the potential impact that Brexit might have upon NI will also be part of this analysis, falling under level 3 of the TNC framework. When comparing this framework with that of the Berghof Foundation in figure 4 it becomes clear how the TNC framework builds and expands upon Azar’s original PSC model.

Within levels 4 and 5 of table 1 the overlap of the social identity issues in NI becomes clear. These levels primarily aim at explaining how group psychology and individual psychology such as the previously mentioned impact on how intergroup contact can increase empathy towards the perceived out-group (Turner et al., 2013). Levels 3, 4 and 5 overlap with the PSC model, incorperating the original five processes of context, needs, capacity, actors and conflict. Level 1 can potentially expand on this idea (Ramsbotham, et al., 2018, p. 122), giving us the ability to analyse the potential impact of Brexit, something that was sorely lacking within the PSC model, thus validating the choice of the TNC framework within this research.

1. Global: Global drivers & Transnational connectors

Can be seen as the ‘connections’ through which all levels are linked together and thus impacted by one another, hence what happens on a global scale can impact what occurs within a local community. Examples of such flows are people, resources, corporate investments, weapons, criminal and terrorist networks or images (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 126).

Historical examples of these links can be found in NI in relation to the flow of resources and weapons, such as Gaddafi supplying the IRA with modernized weapons in the 1970’s (BBC, 2011) or the IRA receiving its major source of funds through the Irish Northern Aid Committee (NORAID) in the 1970’s, during which many Americans with Irish roots felt they were

(15)

14

2. Regional: Complex conflict systems & Intra-regional dynamics

Is the only Level of the TNC framework that will not be applied to the research as its features either do not align within the scope of the research, or simply have to relevance to the topics being discussed. The feature‘Complex conflict systems’ refer to an environment in which regions that have historically seen conflict are now in a state where they remain threats to one another, but have reduced mutual insecurity due to formal and informal arrangements between the states (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 127). The second feature, Intra-regional dynamics is related to how wars within a state have the habit of having strong effects throughout the region (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 128) Level 2 will thus not be part of this research as these features bear no

similarities to the features compared observable in NI.

3. State: Measures of fragility (factors) Social/Economic/Political/Geographical

Within the level of the state there is a strong connection between the four factors, should one factor be negatively impacted, there is a strong possibility that there will be unwanted consequences within another. A weak social sector refers to a social division ‘’around which conflict fault lines may develop’’, whereas a weak economic sector states that protracted social conflict ‘’tends to be associated with patterns of underdevelopment or uneven development’’ (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 130). The secterian divide between the involved groups is a major factor within these conflicts as it often leads to an increased feeling of hostility between groups. NI again fits this feature, a clear example of a secterian divide (Protestants and Catholics) where there was clear feeling of social injustice by the Catholic population. They felt that Protestants who held the majority of positions in power, discriminated against Catholics who felt there was severe inequality within the state, as they were unable to obtain decent jobs, housing or any significant political power (Brown & McCord, 2019). A weak political feature is perhaps the most crucial area within this level, as ‘’social and economic grievances are in the end expressed in political form’’ (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 131). Conflict becomes more likely when one community perceives that state power has been ‘captured’ by the other party. Forcing the other party to use other means such as violence to challenge the legitimacy of the state, such as with the above mentioned unequality in the social and economic factors. The factor of geography is irrelevent to this research and will not be analysed as it focuses on the inability of the government to influence certain areas due to how remote certain areas are or specific geographical features such as maintains or forests.

(16)

15 4. Identity group: Nature of conflict parties & Intergroup dynamics

Explains that the communities that are in conflict with one another are not based on pre-existing ‘givens’, but are ‘constructed’ politically and socially by the ‘’play of power across the

transnational conflict scene’’ (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 132). These identities and categories are manipulated due to various conditions such as in NI. The social mistrust and divide between Catholics and Protestants which cultimated in eventual conflict isn’t based upon religeous differences but rather the perceived inequalities as described in the state factor. Identity goes beyond simplistic religeous identification and has significant correlation with major historic events, such as Protestants having strong cultural ties to mainland UK and view themselves as overwhelmingly British, whereas Catholics mostly identify as being Irish and of whom many would hope to see the re-unification of Ireland, symbols as part of these identities have been a prominent example within NI of expressing political as well as social allegiance within the state (Melaugh, 2013). Intergroup dynamics (escalation and de-escalation) explains the process through which a group moves from non-violent to violent protest to eventual rebellion

(Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 133). This feature can also be applied to NI as previously mentioned social and economic unequalities led to non-violent protests which eventually culminated in rebellion during the height of the Troubles in the 1970’s and 1980’s and ultimately the death of over 3000 people (Millar, 2019).

5. Elite/individual: Leadership roles

The fifth and final level explains the importance of leadership roles that impact or lead to conflict. Mentioned by Michael Brown academic literature has the tendency to ‘place great emphasis on mass-level factors’ and at the same time is ‘weak in understanding the role played by elites and leaders in instigating violence’ These conflicts are therefor often shaped by decisionmakers at the top (Ramsbotham et al., 2018, p. 135). This level can similarly be applied within the case study of NI as in the past and present the political elite have played a major role within the conflict, be it escalation of conflict or prolonging social unrest within the state. Examples of such prominent decisionmakers would be Gerry Adams, the former head of the primarily Catholic political party Sinn Féin, who many claims to have strong and influential ties to the Provisional IRA during the height of the Troubles (O'Neill, 2019), and co-founder of the DUP and former First Minister of NI Ian Paisley who was known for his controversial speeches (BBC, 2014) , and was even linked to financing a bombing by the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) in 1969 (BBC, 2019). More

contemporary examples within NI political sphere would be of the late Martin McGuinness who was a former IRA commander that eventually became deputy first minister and previously

(17)

16 praised a republican during a funeral oration speech who shot at Arlene Foster’s father, current head of the DUP (Thorpe, 2017). Arlene Foster has also been an example of an influencial member of the elite as her lack of accountability during the energy scandal in NI led to the collapse of the Executive which is yet to be re-established (Kelly, 2019). The DUP’s has had an influential role during the Brexit negotiations, as their refusal to back former prime minister (PM) Theresa May’s deal three times eventually culminated in her resignation. Despite needing the DUP’s votes to gain an upcoming edge in the U.K.’s elections, current PM Boris Johnson has seemingly ignored the DUP recently in the hope of pushing an eventual deal through, despite the potential withdrawal of DUP votes and scrutiny by unionists within Johnson’s Conservative Party (Raphael, 2019).

By now it should be clear that the framework of the TNC is a valid choice in relation to analysing the various factors that have led towards the continuation of violence and societal unrest in NI. Previously mentioned was how the concept of Conflict Transformation throughout this research, attempting to transform the very foundation of the conflict, increasing the potential for sustainable peace, increased understanding between groups and reducing societal unrest within NI.

Theory to improve (future research)

The TNC model is capable of highlighting various negative factors, it is uncapable of giving distinct recommendations on how to transform said factors through the lens of Conflict Transformation. An approach therefor must be found that can assist in providing eventual recommendations to improve the current situation. The analysis from Vayrynen shows similarities with the TNC framework in which he states that during conflict analysis the issues, actors and interests are key components to understand conflict, yet he also understands that said issues, actors and interests have the tendency to change over time ‘’as a consequence of the social, economic and political dynamics of societies’’ (Miall, 2004). The Berghof Foundation has built upon Vayrynen’s approach, illustrating the five types of transformation or ‘’transformers’’ that must be analysed to intervene in a constructive manner. These transformers are illustrated within Table 2.

(18)

17

TABLE 2TRANSFORMERS OF CONFLICT (BERGHOF FOUNDATION,2019).

Upon initial analysis it becomes apparent that the TNC framework shares many similarities with these transformers in relation to what is analysed within its framework, this additional framework is beneficial as it allows us to give distinct recommendations based off of these five types of transformations;

1. Context transformations: analyses how changes within the context of conflict may lead to

drastic changes in how conflicting groups perceive the conflict situations, as well as their motives. The impact that the end of the Cold War had upon regional conflicts is an example that can be used. Within the scope of this research the implications of Brexit can be analysed, the ability to come to an agreement that would satisfy both political parties would be a significant step in reducing societal unrest and the potential for violent conflict.

2. Structural transformations: Focus on explaining changes in the nature of the conflict, changes

could occur within their actors, issues, (incompatible) goals and relationships, economy or the society in which the conflict is taking place. The ability to transform perceived unequality is a main factor in moving towards sustainable peace. A basic example within NI that could be solved is the re-establishment of the power-sharing Executive.

(19)

18

3. Actor transformations: Explain how influencial actors play a significant role in reducing the

potential for conflict through changing their goals. Basic examples would be initiating a peace process deal or the change of leadership within conflicting parties. A good example within NI would be the DUP somewhat conceding during the Brexit negotiations to ensure that a deal could be made. Furthermore, change of leadership can also be observed as Sinn Féin has had its deputy leader position recently challenged (The Irish News, 2019).

4. Issue transformations: Concerns the positions that parties take on main issues that are perceived

as core of the conflict, therefor it is crucial that parties focus on redefining or reframing these positions to reach a compromise or solution. An example of this could be the signing of the GFA.

5. Personal / Elite transformations: Shares similarities with structural transformations, conceding

on certain matters by leaders can have a strong impact on transforming the conflict.

The abovementioned five types of transformation can directly be applied to various levels of conflict causation or prevention which are indicated in the 2004 figure below;

FIGURE 5TRANSFORMERS AND TRIGGERS OF CONFLICT (MIALL,2004).

Context transformations tend to occur within global or regional spheres, Structural transformations are related to the state/society level. Actor and Issue transformations are usually related to conflicting parties and elite levels and Personal transformations are related to the actions and competencies of the individual level (Miall, 2004). Despite the creation of this model in 2004, its factors should seem familiar. There is a distinct overlap between the levels of the TNC framework which are applied to analyze the main features of what causes a conflict, and the ToC framework which gives a model on which features to focus on, and how to transform a conflict to reduce social unrest and the potential for violent conflict.

(20)

19 However usefull these transformers of conflict might be however, they cannot be applied within this research as they fall outside of the scope of the main research question. Additional research by others will be required to search for potential solutions to the problematic aspects that the TNC framework might uncover.

Repeating the research question below, it becomes clear why the framework was chosen within the scope of this research, as one gives us the ability to analyze the underlying issues that have caused the conflict, or lead to a continuation of it;

To what extent can the TNC framework explain the historical conflict and current social divide in NI?

Testing Hypotheses

In order to analyze the case of NI with the TNC framework, we must first put forward a set of hypotheses to test within the scope of the research. These hypotheses are as follows;

Level 1 (Global)

Events of the past have strongly influenced the forming of identity and ideology within NI and have been major factors that have led to the continuation of conflict and social divide within the state.

Level 3 (State)

Examples of specific features in NI, such as a ‘weak’ society, economy, polity or central control have increased the potential for violence to reoccur and for social divide within the country to increase.

Level 4 (Identity group)

The commemoration of historical events through group formation and their prominent usage of symbols that are used as links to the past have led to the continuation of violence and social divide within NI.

Level 5 (Elite / individual)

The role that the political elite of NI have played in the past and present has created an environment that has allowed for the continuation of violence and social divide.

(21)

20 The table below is an analytical framework that visualizes the main levels and features that will be examined within the research. Analyzing these main features in the case of NI will allow us to test the abovementioned hypotheses and culminate with answering the main research question.

Analytical Framework

Level Hypothesis to be tested TNC features to be analyzed

1 Global Events of the past have strongly influenced the forming of identity and ideology within NI, and have been major factors that have led to the continuation of conflict and social divide within the state.

• Determining global drivers – understanding the main aspects that led to the Troubles (Historical analysis)

3 State Examples of specific features in NI, such as a ‘weak’ society, economy, polity or central control have increased the potential for violence to reoccur and for social divide within the country to increase.

• Measuring main elements of fragility within society (historical inequality, housing, education), economy (historical exclusion and Brexit worries) and polity (Judicial system, government collapse and Brexit deadlock)

4 Identity group The commemoration of historical events through group formation and their prominent usage of symbols that are used as links to the past have led to the continuation of violence and social divide within NI.

• Nature of conflict parties (why

groups continue to form and their issues)

• Intergroup Dynamics (How the

interpretation of events or group actions have led to violence and social unrest) 5 Elite / individual The role that the political elite of NI have

played in the past and present has created an environment that has allowed for the continuation of violence and social divide.

• Leadership roles (how their

past decisions, factional interests or greed have potentially led to reoccurring conflict and social divide)

(22)

21 A breakdown of the overall research can be seen in the conceptual model below;

Figure 6 Conceptual model of research

Research Material

Early on during the research the decision had to be made concerning whether the research would focus on either quantitative or qualitative research. Quantitative research focuses on providing numerical data and facts at the conclusion of the research, whereas qualitative research focuses on uncovering insights and understanding the complexities of the chosen case study (Surbhi, 2018). Looking at the research question it should be clear that providing statistical data does not fall within the research goals of this thesis, although numerical data might provide practical insights during the desk research it is not the end goal. To understand what types of data sources will be analysed during the research we will take another look at the research question;

To what extent can the TNC framework explain the historical conflict and current social divide in NI? What source of data will be analyzed strongly depends on each individual level within the TNC. The social and economic impact of Brexit which is linked to level 3 of the TNC framework would rely on examples such as the Nevin Economic Research Institute (Flynn, 2016), which discusses the economic impact of Brexit, or the Centre for International Borders Research which analyzes the potential impact

Level 1 (Global)

Determining global drivers – understanding main aspects that lead to the Troubles

Level 3 (State)

Measuring main fragile elements within society, economy and polity

Level 4 (Identity group) Understanding the formation of conflicting groups and their actions leading to conflict

and societal unrest

Level 5 (Elite / individual) Understanding how decisions, factional interest and greed have led to conflict and

societal unrest

Answer main research question

(23)

22 Brexit might have along the border with the Republic of Ireland (Hayward, 2018). To apply the Measures of Fragility feature where we observe examples of a weak economy, society or weak central control we would primarily be observing sources that analyse how and what of how the Troubles occurred, sources such as books or the vast amount of reports that are available digitally. For observing the more

contemporary example of weak central control such as the collapse of the Executive, we would analyse the publications of multiple newsletters (Kelly, 2019), or statements made by prominent political figures. The features Nature of conflict parties and Intergroup Dynamics would use similar sources, understanding the root causes of the sectarian divide and how non-violent protest cultiminated in outright conflict. To analyse the feature of Leadership roles, how prominent figures make decisions that lead to social unrest or violence will be analyzed through a combination of literature and digital audio material, such as literature explaining Arlene Fosters role which led to collapse of the NI Executive (Kelly, 2019),or audio material discussing the stances of the DUP and Sinn Fein, concerning the ongoing issues related to the Brexit negotiations (Independent, 2019).

Interviews with a random sampling of NI citizens are also considered should the limited timeframe in which this research must take place would allow for it. Interviews could potentially be beneficial as a simple questions could be set up through the frameworks of the TNC, its additional value would be analyzing to see if similarities or differences would be observed within the data of the applied frameworks and the answers of the general public of NI, a potential example could be the TNC framework indicating that the collapse of the Executive creates social unrest or divide, whereas individuals being interviewed might not place too much importance on the functioning of the Executive at all. Therefor it would be interesting to conduct interviews to analyze if the desk research coincides with the opinion of the general public, adding an additional layer of qualitative research and potentially improving the overall quality and validity of the thesis.

Level 1 (Global) Analysis

We will start by analyzing the conflict through level one (Global) of the TNC framework. The first step of the Global level analysis is determining where the case of the NI conflict fits in relation to the TNC’s four main drivers of transnational conflict which will be explain in the following chapter.

The goal of the TNC is to uncover the main drivers behind the historical conflict in NI and why it has led to the continuation of societal divide within the nation. We can somewhat simplify this process by testing a variety of hypothesis within the research. Within the analysis of each of the TNC’s levels we will put forward a set of questions that can be linked to the various features, although it might initially be

(24)

23 confusing as to why these specific questions are being asked, it will become clear once the individual chapters of each of the TNC’s levels have been read. The hypothesis to be tested that is part of level 1 (Global) of the TNC is as follows

• Events of the past have strongly influenced the forming of identity and ideology within NI and have been major factors that have led to the continuation of conflict and social divide within the state.

The TNC model identifies four main global drivers of transnational conflict, which are as follows; 1. Interstate conflict

2. Economic/Resource conflict 3. Identity/Secession conflict 4. Revolution/ ideology conflict

Historical Analysis

What is interesting about the conflict in NI, is that it can be identified within two of the four global drivers of transnational conflict; Identity and Ideology conflict. Why this is the case will be elaborated upon in the following chapter. To understand why identity and ideology play such big roles in NI and have led to the continuation of violence and social unrest we must first take a step back and conduct a historical analysis of the conflict. Simply put, what is at the heart of the violence between the Catholics and Protestants? A starting point for Catholics will often be the discussion the unjust colonization of Ireland by the Normans starting in the late 12th_{century. Irish land was subjugated by the English over the} next centuries, and those that resisted were either killed or displaced through the process of plantation, the systematic approach through which Protestant English and Scottish would confiscate land from the Irish and begin to spread Protestantism,which is one of the main aspects that is at the core of the conflict (Rolston, 2019). The Irish people were often seen by the British as ‘’savages’’, using its minerals for their own industry and its fertile lands being exploited, feeding its population back in mainland Britain. Ireland was often seen as an environment to practice new techniques of repression and control, leading to further resentment by the local Irish population (Gott, 2011). This oppression meant the Irish clans often

attempted to rise up against its English rulers but were then quickly put down by the much larger British empire. This created an ever-increasing cycle of oppression and violence between the parties, resentment and bitterness increasing as the centuries continued to pass. The Great Famine which occurred from 1845-1849 is the most well-known example that’s shows the culmination of this exploitation. As produce from Irish lands was continuously shipped back to England, the poor Irish population had a strong over reliance

(25)

24 on the success of its potato crops. The lack of alternative food sources within Ireland meant that when the crops were destroyed, the population had significantly reduced due to death and emigration, from an estimated 8,175,000 to a staggering 6,552,000 (Behrens, 2013). Resentment between the Irish and English was clear, but how did the Protestant faith and identity eventually become synonymous with the conflict in NI? The role of Protestantism in the conflict lies in its very creation, as up until the early 16th_century Protestantism simply did not exist and the English were still Catholics. The rift within religious identity occurred when the Church of England broke away from Catholicism and Henry VIII declared himself as head of the Church in England. The relationship between the English and Irish would continue to

deteriorate as the Protestant kings and queens in the following generations would be increasingly ruthless, ensuring that everyone within the British realm would conform to Protestantism. As Henry VIII and Britain’s future Protestant rulers would seek to increase their realm of influence, they logically would seek to spread the Protestant faith. Hoping to extend the crowns influence within Ireland, the following British rulers would brutally seize significant portions of land in Ireland, removing its original Irish inhabitants and replacing them with predominantly Protestant settlers. This became known as a process of ‘’Plantation’’, further justified by other historic examples of colonization by Britain in areas such as Africa. The Irish were seen as inferior and ‘’in need of civilising’’ (Clayton, 1998). Increasingly the British found it difficult to convert the Irish Catholics to Protestantism and thus in an attempt to increase its sphere of influence, and decrease the influence of Catholics in Ireland a set Penal Laws were

implemented in 1695 despite Catholics still consisting of almost 70% of the population (Holloway, 2005). Examples of such laws were as follows; Excluding Catholics from holding positions within public office (ex. MP, barrister, civil servant). Banning Catholics from owning land, the inability to bear arms or be members of the armed forces and the inability for Catholic landowners to pass their estate to their eldest son, unless he was a Protestant (Donnchadha, Anti-Catholic Penal Laws In Ireland, 2019). The

effectiveness of these penal laws was clear, as in 1780 despite Catholics consisting of roughly 75% of the Irish population, a mere 5% were still considered land owners (Donnchadha , 2019).

Despite being at a significant numerical disadvantage, the settlers were able to spread rapidly throughout Ireland, dissent by the native Irish population who saw the settlers as invaders was met with significant retribution due to the close ties that the settlers had with the British crown. The origin of conflict between Catholics and Protestants thus becomes clear, the native Irish felt that due to the process of plantation, what rightfully belonged to them had been stripped from them and replaced illegitimately by the

Protestant settlers. This process did not only lead to a division of religious beliefs within Ireland, but also a division of identification. Religion and personal identification became almost synonymous with one another, the Irish Catholic against the foreign Protestant settler. One of the most famous rebellions in Ireland occurred in 1798, when the United Irishmen, a group of individuals consisting of both Protestants

(26)

25 and Catholics sought to overthrow the British rule in Ireland as many Protestants felt that the manner in which Ireland was ruled was not benefitting them, and thus sought to take control (Holloway, 2005). The rebellion eventually failed as Catholics and Protestants often failed to see eye to eye, leading to internal conflict within the ranks of the United Irishmen, after only three months the rebellion was crushed. The amount of fatalities within the rebellion is a contested number, at its lowest an estimated 15,000 were killed whereas higher estimates put the overall death count around 50,000 (Dorney, The 1798 Rebellion – a brief overview, 2017). After the bloody rebellion of 1798, in an attempt to take more control within Ireland the British implemented ‘The Act Of Union’ in 1801, a measure that would abolish the Irish Parliament, bring Ireland under the union of Great Britain and thus be seen as a single kingdom and force Ireland to be represented within the Parliament in Westminster. Despite various rebellions frequently occurring within Ireland, by the end of the 18th_{century there was seemingly a more positive development} occurring between Protestants and Catholics, as Catholics were not considered to be such social and political dangers when compared to the previous centuries. Despite Catholics becoming more accepted, they were never seen as equal to Protestants. Due to this inequality Catholics continued to protest, and led to eventual success with the most notable examples being the Relief acts of 1778, 1791 and 1793 which allowed Catholics to legally acquire property, practice their religion without fear of prosecution, obtaining suffrage and the ability to be admitted to most (but not all) civil offices (britannica, 2019). The final push to abolish the Penal Laws occurred when Daniel O’Connell, an influential Irish lawyer was able to the mobilize the poor Irish peasantry as well as the middle class into protesting for full emancipation. The British government feared that failing to give into the demands of O’Connell would risk another rebellion. O’ Connell and the British parliament were able to come to an agreement, and the passing of the 1829 Relief act meant that Catholics were now able to obtain seats within the parliament, as well as the abolishment of the remaining Penal Laws that discriminated against the Catholics (Mellby, 2011).

Home Rule

Penal laws had been abolished, but Catholics were still often perceived as second-rate citizens and did not receive the same opportunities that Protestants enjoyed. As a direct response to this inequality, and the fact that after the Act of Union the was no official Parliament in Ireland, the Irish started to demand for so-called ‘Home Rule’, arguing for the removed of the Irish governance in Westminster and replacing it with their own domestic parliament in Ireland (Mulvagh, 2019).

The 18th_{century is where we start to see significant growth for the support of Unionism amongst the} Protestant population. Catholics were seemingly mobilizing in increasingly larger numbers. The now predominantly Protestant population within the Northern province of Ulster feared that under Home Rule they could become a minority again in an independent Irish and Catholic state and thus fiercely resisted

(27)

26 its implementation. Thus, began the growth of Ulster Unionism, seen as an ideology which Protestants could rally behind. Once the British parliament attempted to pass the Home Rule bill for a third time in 1912, Protestant outrage was at an all time high, fearing that with the passing of the bill their civil and religious rights would be impeded upon. Many Protestants were willing to defend their rights by all means possible which led to the creation of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) in 1913. In response to this threat the Irish Volunteers were established in the same year, hoping to push through the bill (Holloway, 2005). Just has it seemed that Ireland was heading straight for a national crisis, this issue would be interrupted with the outbreak of World War I in 1914.

Easter Rising and the Irish War of Independence

World War I broke out, and with it many of the UVF’s forces were encouraged by its leader Lord Carson to join the British Army and join the fight. In a politically motivated attempt to push through the third and final Home Rule bill, Irish leader John Redmond attempted to convince the Irish Volunteers (who had now been renamed as the National Volunteers) to enlist in the British Army. He hoped that those that would return from the war could return as an independent Irish Army under the implementation of Home Rule. There was also hope that by joining the British forces it would lead to both Unionists and

Nationalists cooperating and thus potentially reduce the animosity between the two groups in Ireland once the war had been won. The National Volunteers consisted of an estimated 180,000, a smaller and more militant portion of this group (an estimated 10,000) were appalled at the idea of joining forces with the British creating a divide within the organisation. This more militant branch would secede from the Irish Nationalists and would proclaim themselves as the Irish Volunteers, the groups original name (Dorney, 2018). A small group of Irish Nationalists saw the period of World War I as the perfect time to mount a rebellion, overthrow the British government and proclaim a free, independent Irish state. Britain and many members of the UVF were at war abroad and thus could not be mobilised in Ireland.

The Easter Rising as it would be known would be organised in secret by the so-called Irish Republican Brotherhood (IRB). A small organisation that had managed to successfully convince several of the Irish Volunteers high ranking members to join their cause. With the support of the Irish Volunteers on the 24th of April 1916 the IRB proclaimed an Irish Republic and most famously occupying the General Post Office. Britains military response was swift, by the 28th_{of April 18,000 British soldiers opposed the} estimated 1,600 group of rebels. By the 29th_{the rebellion had officially ended once leader Patrick Pearse} offered his unconditional surrender. Once the rebellion had concluded, Dublin’s city centre was left in ruin, 2,614 were injured and 450 people were killed, of which only 64 of them were rebels (BBC, 2016). From a military sense the rebellion could not be seen as anything else but an utter failure, the aftermath and the actions of the British in response to the rebellion eventually allowed a fractured and divided group

(28)

27 such as the Nationalists gain significant political and ideological support. Confronted with the utter failure of the rebellion, many mainstream Irish Nationalists were growing tired as it was another case of deja-vu, hopefully rising up against the British only to leave the country in a worse state once the rebellious events had concluded. Furthermore, Unionism saw significant growth in the mostly Protestant dominated

province of Ulster as the rebellion was the final example that they needed to prove that Irish Catholics could not be trusted.

The Continuation of Violence and Civil War

In the aftermath of the rebellion the support for the cause of the Irish Volunteers was fleeting, the destruction within Dublin and the loss fof innocent lives attributed to this. The decision of the British authorities to execute 15 rebel leaders would cause a significant shift in the public opinion for the Catholic Irish cause, the rebels who were initially seen as ‘lunatics’ fighting a battle which could not be one became symbols of Catholic martyrdom with their death (O'Toole, 2016). The political party Sinn Féin would eventually become the group which Catholics would rally behind, although their political rise to power came somewhat by chance. Sinn Féin and its members had next to no involvement in the 1916 Easter Rising, yet became the party that was directly linked to those that started the rebellion. Support had grown as influential members of the Protestant population had began to use Sinn Féin as a blanket term to describe the multiple separatist organizations that existed. Support from Catholics grew for the party due to its popular association with the rebellion (Nerve Centre, 2019). Sinn Féin would go on to become the largest political party, during the general election of December 1918 gaining 73 of the available 103 parliamentary seats. Moderate Nationalists as well as the more radicalized tended to support the party due to its links with self-sufficiency goals and its drive to create an independent parliament within Ireland. In protest towards the governing of Ireland from Westminster, the members of Sinn Féin refused to take their seats within the parliament. They would then go on to proclaim an independent Irish parliament known as the Dáil Éireann and declare Irish independence on January 21st_{1919 (McGarry, 2019). The} same day is often referred to as the start of the Irish War of Independence as two Royal Irish

Constabulary (RIC) police officers were killed by members of the Irish Volunteers, claiming their actions were justified as the establishment of an independent Ireland meant that those serving within the British controlled RIC could be seen as servants of a constabulary that was viewed as an illegal occupying force.

Under the leadership of Michael Collins, the Irish Volunteers would increasingly become militarized leading to the formation of one of the key groups of the modern day troubles, the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The war was a key moment in the history for the IRA not only due to its establishment, but also due to the transition from what were considered military tactics (examples being the deployment of what was deemed as an official army, or the goal of holding key locations such as the post office during the failed Easter Rising) to more unconventional means. Facing a force much larger than their own, the IRA

(29)

28 developed their own set of guerilla warfare tactics, combining the coordinated attacks on locations such as RIC barracks, as well as assassination attempts on perceived high value targets. Sinn Féin rallied the people by called for a boycott against the RIC. Those that lived near the RIC outposts were willing to go far to make life as difficult as possible for members of the RIC. The boycott was so successful and the resources of the RIC stretched so thin, that many of its members were forced to requisition supplies to remain operable at gunpoint. The boycott also effected members of their family, those that ‘collaborated’ with members of the RIC were also seen as the enemy. The IRA’s plan was effective, under the duress of the situation many members of the RIC retired or resigned all together (Kautt, 2003). The most notorious example of violence during the war occurred on the 21st_{of November, 1920 when the IRA managed to} successfully assassinate 14 men during broad daylight who were alleged British spies (Dolan, 2006). The IRA was seemingly gaining more control as abandoned police barracks would be destroyed to prevent them from being occupied in the future. The RIC’s overall membership had dropped significantly and morale was low which the British looked to turn around with the creation of the Black and Tans. In response to the assassinations, on the same day the RIC and Black and Tans were sent in large forces to observe the Gaelic football match at Croke park (a predominantly Catholic affair). Confusion broke out amongst those attending when police had announced that anyone attempting to leave the stadium would be shot (Griffin K. , 2015). Reports had also surfaced that British forces had claimed that they came under fire once they had surrounded the stadium and in the ensuing panic had opened fire on members of the public, at the end of it all 14 people were dead with 60 injured (Kautt, 2003). The Black and Tans which gained its name due to its outspoken uniform (obtained due to a shortage of standard uniforms) differed from the RIC in the sense that it allowed for the conscription of those that were not of Irish nationality. Specifically, the government asked for those that had already seen service within the military, and therefor would easily adapt to their role of peacekeepers within Ireland (Kautt, 2003). Depending on whether you are a Catholic or a Protestant is more than likely to determine your opinion on the Black and Tans, as those that see themselves as nationalists would often see them as nothing more than a group of criminals due to republican propaganda associating them with various examples of police brutality and murder (Independent, 2006). Others have been less critical of the group stating that they were not the savages that Irish republicans like to portray them as, many of them were rather ordinary men whose actions were a product of circumstance at the time, with both sides of the war being involved in various acts of savagery (Leeson, 2003). After thousands had been killed and after both parties saw no end of the war in sight an eventual truce would be signed on the 11th_{of July 1921. Forcing the British government to} negotiate with the IRA was however a big win for the IRA, as it increased their status as a legitimate organization (McGarry, 2019).

(30)

29 Before the truce was signed, it is important to note the passing of the Government of Ireland Act which attempted to appease both Protestants and Catholics. This act created two governments within Ireland, one in Belfast which held jurisdiction over the 6 most northern counties of Ireland (Ulster) and one in Dublin which controlled the remaining 26 counties. Political power would be limited, Unionists saw this as an acceptable offer however, as due to their prominent links with Britain they would have no issue remaining under the influence of the parliament in Westminster (Ferguson, 2011). Many Nationalists would disagree with this decision as many felt that it would leave them vulnerable within this newly created state, as most of its population consisted of Protestants (Holloway, 2005). Further bloodshed was right around the corner however, as the signing of the Anglo-Irish Treaty on the 6th_{of December 1921} created a severe rift within Irish Nationalist organizations. Many Nationalists were pro-treaty, as it gave them more independence as the south of Ireland would become a self-governing “dominion” within the British empire, the Irish had also grown tired of the death and destruction caused by the previous conflicts and Britain had already vowed to immediately take up arms again should the Irish fail to sign the treaty. This so-called ‘Irish Free State’ would have all power related to taxation, trade and would even have the ability to form their own army. Despite the deal, the smaller but more radical Nationalists felt that they could not accept the treaty, as it failed in the one thing that most Irish desired, the creation of an Irish Republic. Under the treaty the English monarch would still be the monarch of Ireland, something that many could not accept (Ferguson, 2011). On the 28th_{of June 1922 war would break out between the} divided Nationalists and follow a similar trend of guerilla warfare between those that previously fought side by side. Due to their numerical advantage and superior resources the pro-treaty forces were able to drive the IRA back into the south of Ireland. After the assassination of pro-treaty leader Michael Collins combat would become increasingly brutal, with examples such as the execution of 77 IRA prisoners during the course of the war. Once it had become clear that the vast majority of the population supported the pro-treaty forces, opposition leader Eamon de Valera ended the violence when he issued the call to lay down arms on the 24th_{of May 1923 (Anne, 2003).}

The occurrence of civil war would have far reaching consequences for the Catholics in NI. To counter the threat of the IRA, emergency legislation was implemented that gave significant authority to the police forces in NI which were almost exclusively Protestant (Holloway, 2005). Politically Catholics felt increasingly marginalized due to the passing of controversial acts such as the Local Government bill in July of 1922. This bill removed the so-called P.R. system, a system which had been implemented as a measure to protect minorities as it focused on representing a wider variety of interests, rather than Britain’s winner takes all approach. Nationalists were increasingly alienated from political spheres in favor of supporting the interests of Unionists who held the majority. Within the devolved government period between 1921 and 1972 the Unionists would continuously be the dominant political force (O'Brien,

Conflict and social divide in Northern Ireland, a distant past?

Master’s Thesis

Christopher Mulder

Student ID - s2380293

Conflict and social divide in Northern Ireland, a distant past?

Word Count: 23,802

Table of Contents

Introduction

Why is Northern Ireland being monitored so closely in relation to the Brexit negotiations?

Research Focus & Research question

Other considered concepts

Viable Framework Analysis

Justification and elaborating on the TNC Framework

Theory to improve (future research)

Testing Hypotheses

Analytical Framework

Figure 6 Conceptual model of research

Research Material

Level 1 (Global) Analysis

Historical Analysis

Home Rule

Easter Rising and the Irish War of Independence

The Continuation of Violence and Civil War