UvA-DARE is a service provided by the library of the University of Amsterdam (https://dare.uva.nl)
Driven by the future
Future time perspective across life domains and cultures
Andre, L.
Publication date
2018
Document Version
Other version
License
Other
Link to publication
Citation for published version (APA):
Andre, L. (2018). Driven by the future: Future time perspective across life domains and
cultures.
General rights
It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons).
Disclaimer/Complaints regulations
If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.
0RWLYDWLRQDOSRZHURIIXWXUHWLPHSHUVSHFWLYH
0HWDDQDO\VHVLQHGXFDWLRQZRUNDQGKHDOWK
7KLVFKDSWHULVEDVHGRQ$QGUH/YDQ9LDQHQ$(03HHWVPD77' 2RUW)- 0RWLYDWLRQDOSRZHURIIXWXUHWLPHSHUVSHFWLYH0HWDDQDO\VHVLQHGXFDWLRQZRUNDQG KHDOWK3/R62QHKWWSVGRLRUJMRXUQDOSRQH
18
$%675$&7
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
19 ,1752'8&7,21 7KHIXWXUHLVQRWDUHVXOWRIDFKRLFHDPRQJDOWHUQDWLYHSDWKVRIIHUHGE\WKHSUHVHQW EXWDSODFHWKDWLVFUHDWHG²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
%\ GHILQLWLRQ SHRSOH¶VPRWLYDWLRQDO JRDOV DUH VLWXDWHGLQ WKHIXWXUH 7KLQNLQJ DERXW WKHIXWXUHFDQFRQFHUQWKHVKRUWWHUPHJYLVLWLQJDGHQWLVWWKLVDIWHUQRRQDQGWKHORQJWHUP RUPRUHGLVWDQWIXWXUHHJEHFRPLQJDODZ\HULQ\HDUV/HQV3DL[m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¶SRWHQWLDO FDSDFLW\WRPRWLYDWH$WWKHVDPHWLPHLQGLYLGXDOVZKRHQYLVLRQDGLVWDQWIXWXUHPD\EHDEOH WR DQWLFLSDWH WKH IXWXUH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI WKHLU SUHVHQW EHKDYLRU *MHVPH +XVPDQ 6KHOO=DOHVNL,QWKLVSDSHUZHSRVHDIXQGDPHQWDOTXHVWLRQUHJDUGLQJKXPDQ PRWLYDWLRQ 7R ZKDW H[WHQW DUH SHRSOH¶V SUHVHQW PRWLYDWLRQ LQWHQWLRQV DQG EHKDYLRUV DIIHFWHGE\WKHLU)73"
)XWXUHWLPHSHUVSHFWLYH
7R DFKLHYH DQ LQGHSWK XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI KXPDQ PRWLYDWLRQ DQG DFWLRQV DQG UHDVRQV IRUWKRVHDFWLRQVWKHIXWXUHPHULWVDJUHDWGHDOPRUHDWWHQWLRQWKDQLWKDVUHFHLYHGIURPWKH VRFLDOVFLHQFHVWKXVIDU+XVPDQ%UHP%DQHJDV'XFKURZ +DTXH)URPGLIIHUHQW
20
WKHRUHWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYHV UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH DUJXHG WKDW WKLQNLQJ DERXW WKH IXWXUH LQIOXHQFHV KXPDQDFWLRQVLQWKHSUHVHQW
$V WKH FRQFHSW RI SV\FKRORJLFDO WLPH PD\ LQFOXGH YDULRXV DVSHFWV VXFK DUH WLPH VXFFHVVLRQWLPHGXUDWLRQDQGWLPHSHUVSHFWLYH%ORFNWKLQNLQJDERXWWKHIXWXUHLVD EURDGFRQFHSWWKDWKDVEHHQDSSURDFKHGIURPDYDULHW\RIWKHRUHWLFDODQGHPSLULFDOWUDGLWLRQV DQG VFLHQWLILF ILHOGV 6HOLJPDQ 5DLOWRQ %DXPHLVWHU 6ULSDGD 2QH GRPLQDQW UHVHDUFK WUDGLWLRQ LV EDVHG RQ /HZLQ¶V /HZLQ DQG )UDQN¶V )UDQN VHPLQDO WKHRUHWLFDOIUDPHZRUNRIWLPHSHUVSHFWLYHGHILQHGDVµµWKHWRWDOLW\RIWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VYLHZVRI KLVSV\FKRORJLFDOIXWXUHDQGSV\FKRORJLFDOSDVWH[LVWLQJDWDJLYHQWLPH¶¶S%DVHGRQ WKLVWUDGLWLRQVFKRODUVKDYHIRFXVHGRQLQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQSDVWSUHVHQWDQGIXWXUHWLPH SHUVSHFWLYHDQGWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKLQGLYLGXDOVIRFXVRQRQHRIWKHVHWLPHSHUVSHFWLYHVZKHQ PDNLQJGHFLVLRQVLQGLIIHUHQWOLIHGRPDLQV7KLVUHVHDUFKWUDGLWLRQKDVSDUWLFXODUO\IRFXVHGRQ LQGLYLGXDOV¶SURSHQVLW\WRUHIOHFWRQWKHIXWXUHDQGWKHLUJHQHUDODWWLWXGHVWRZDUGVWKHIXWXUH 5HVHDUFKHUV LQYHVWLJDWHG WKLV )73 FRQVWUXFW DV D PRWLYDWRU IRU RXWFRPHV LQ GLIIHUHQW OLIH GRPDLQV VXFK DV HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN KHDOWK DQG HQYLURQPHQW HJ 0HOOR :RUUHOO 0LOIRQW:LOVRQ 'LQL] =LPEDUGR %R\G)RUH[DPSOHHPEHGGHG LQ WKLV UHVHDUFKWUDGLWLRQDPHWDDQDO\VLVE\0LOIRQWHWDOKDVVKRZQWKDW)73DVFRPSDUHG WR SDVW DQG SUHVHQW WLPH SHUVSHFWLYH LV D PRWLYDWRU IRU DWWLWXGHV DQG EHKDYLRUV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQWDOGRPDLQ
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¶ FDSDFLW\ RI WKLQNLQJ DERXW WKH IXWXUH DQG LWV XQGHUO\LQJ PHFKDQLVPV DQG PDLQO\ LQYROYHG WKH PDQLSXODWLRQ RI WKHVH FRJQLWLRQV DQG ZKHWKHUWKH\LQIOXHQFHZHOOEHLQJKDSSLQHVVHWKLFDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGILQDQFLDOEHKDYLRU 7KH FXUUHQW PHWDDQDO\VLV GUDZV XSRQ /HZLQ¶V /HZLQ DQG )UDQN¶V )UDQN FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ RI )73 DQG WKH UHFHQW PHWDDQDO\VLV RQ )73 LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO GRPDLQ 0LOIRQW HW DO 6SHFLILFDOO\ ZH IRFXV RQ UHVHDUFK WKDW H[DPLQHG LQGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHVLQDWWLWXGHVWRZDUGVWKHGLVWDOIXWXUHDQGWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHVHDWWLWXGHVDIIHFW
21 LQGLYLGXDOV¶ FXUUHQW DWWLWXGHV GHFLVLRQV DQG EHKDYLRUV LQ WKH HGXFDWLRQDO ZRUN DQG KHDOWK GRPDLQ
7KH )73 FRQVWUXFW GLIIHUV IURP RWKHU PRWLYDWLRQDO FRQVWUXFWV )RU H[DPSOH $WNLQVRQ¶V WKHRU\ RI DFKLHYHPHQW RULHQWDWLRQ $WNLQVRQ )HDWKHU YLHZV D KLJK LQVWUXPHQWDOYDOXHDVEHQHILFLDOIRUUHDFKLQJJRDOVLQWKHLPPHGLDWHIXWXUHVXFFHVVRUIDLOXUH LQWKHWDVNDWKDQGEXWQRWIRUWKHGLVWDQWIXWXUH0RUHRYHU0DONDDQG&RYLQJWRQ0DOND &RYLQJWRQDQG3HHWVPD3HHWVPDSURYLGHGHYLGHQFHWKDWVWXGHQWV¶)73LV FRQFHSWXDOO\DQGHPSLULFDOO\VHSDUDEOHIURPSHUFHSWLRQVRILQVWUXPHQWDOLW\)73ZDVDEHWWHU SUHGLFWRU RI VFKRRO LQYHVWPHQW WKDQ SHUFHLYHG LQVWUXPHQWDOLW\ 6LPLODUO\ )73 DQG GHOD\ RI JUDWLILFDWLRQLHDQDELOLW\WRUHVLVWDVPDOOHUDQGLPPHGLDWHUHZDUGIRUWKHVDNHRIWKHELJJHU EXWODWHUUHZDUGDUHGLIIHUHQWFRQVWUXFWV%HPEHQXWW\ .DUDEHQLFNZLWK)73EHLQJ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ DFWLYLW\ UDWKHU WKDQ SDVVLYLW\ 6HJLQHU /HQV )LQDOO\ )73 WKHRU\ GLIIHUVIURPJRDOVHWWLQJWKHRU\/RFNH /DWKDPDVWKLVODWWHUWKHRU\ODFNVWKH³LVVXH RIWLPHSHUVSHFWLYH´S 5HFHQWUHVHDUFKKDVVKRZQWKDW)73LQIOXHQFHVDFWLRQVLQWKHSUHVHQWQRWRQO\ZKHQ LQGLYLGXDOV¶FRQVLGHUWKHLURZQIXWXUHEXWDOVRWKHFROOHFWLYHIXWXUHHJ %DLQHWDO 5HIHUULQJWRLQGLYLGXDOV¶)73/HZLQ/HZLQUHDVRQHGWKDWDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VOLIHVSDFH FRQVLVWVRIJHRJUDSKLFDODQGVRFLDOVXUURXQGLQJVEXWDOVRLQFOXGHVDWLPHGLPHQVLRQ/HZLQ GHILQHG)73DVWKH³VFRSHRIWLPHDKHDGZKLFKLQIOXHQFHVSUHVHQWEHKDYLRU´SDQGKH FODLPHGWKDWFKDQJHLQ)73LVRQHRIWKH³PRVWIXQGDPHQWDOIDFWVRIGHYHORSPHQW´S &RUURERUDWLQJ WKLV YLHZ 1XWWLQ DQG 1XUPL HODERUDWHG RQ WKH PRWLYDWLRQDOIRUFHRI)73E\FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ)73DVWKHNH\³PRWLYDWLRQDOVSDFH´RIKXPDQV 1XWWLQ S 1XWWLQ GHVFULEHG )73 LQ WHUPV RI WKUHH EDVLF SURFHVVHV PRWLYDWLRQ SODQQLQJ DQG HYDOXDWLRQ 0RWLYDWLRQ UHIHUV WR SHRSOH¶V LQWHUHVWV LQ WKH IXWXUH SODQQLQJUHIHUVWRKRZLQGLYLGXDOVSODQWKHUHDOL]DWLRQRIWKHLULQWHUHVWVDQGHYDOXDWLRQUHIHUV WRWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKLQGLYLGXDOVH[SHFWWKHLULQWHUHVWVWREHUHDOL]HG
$FFRUGLQJ WR GH 9ROGHU DQG /HQV )73¶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
22
RSWLPLVWLF RU SHVVLPLVWLF YLHZ RQ D SDUWLFXODU IXWXUH OLIH GRPDLQ 7KHVH LQVWUXPHQWDO LQFHQWLYHDQGDIIHFWLYHYDOXHVRIGLVWDQWJRDOVDUHSDUWHLWKHULQGLYLGXDOO\RULQFRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH GLIIHUHQW )73 FRQVWUXFWV WKDW KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG LQ WKH )73 OLWHUDWXUH $FURVV PXOWLSOH GLVFLSOLQHV HJ SV\FKRORJ\ VRFLRORJ\ HGXFDWLRQ PHGLFLQH )73 KDV EHHQ JHQHUDOO\GHILQHGDVDQDWWLWXGHWRZDUGVWKHIXWXUHDQGUHIOHFWLQJRQWKHIXWXUHFRQVHTXHQFHV RIRQH¶VSUHVHQWDFWLRQV$QGUHWWD:RUUHOO 0HOOR+XVPDQ /HQV3HHWVPD 6WUDWKPDQ*OHLFKHU%RQLQJHU (GZDUGV
6LQFH WKH PLGGOH RI WKH WK FHQWXU\ UHVHDUFKHUV HJ )UDQN /HZLQ 7HDKDQKDYHSRVLWHGWKDW)73LVLPSRUWDQWIRUSUHGLFWLQJYDULRXVLQGLYLGXDODWWLWXGHV DQGEHKDYLRUVLQGLIIHUHQWOLIHGRPDLQVDQGDFURVVDJHVDQGFXOWXUHV7KHQRWLRQRI³WKHIXWXUH DVWKHEXLOGLQJVLWHRIFRQVWUXFWLYHEHKDYLRUDQGKXPDQSURJUHVV´1XWWLQ /HQVS KDVVSDUNHGUHVHDUFKRQWKH)73FRQVWUXFWLQWKHFHQWUDOOLIHGRPDLQVRIHGXFDWLRQZRUN DQGKHDOWK*MHVPH/HQVHWDO1XWWLQ 3HHWVPD YDQGHU9HHQ 6HJLQHU /HQV 6HLMWV =DOHVNL =LPEDUGR %R\G (GXFDWLRQUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHH[SORUHGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ)73DQGHGXFDWLRQDORXWFRPHV VXFK DV OHDUQLQJ DWWLWXGHV DFDGHPLF HQJDJHPHQW DQG DFKLHYHPHQW HJ +XVPDQ /HQV 3HHWVPD6FKXLWHPD 9DQ'HU9HHQ,QWKHGRPDLQRIZRUNUHVHDUFKHUVKDYH OLQNHG)73WRFDUHHUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGSODQQLQJFDUHHUFKRLFHVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGYRFDWLRQDO PDWXULW\ HJ )HUUDUL1RWD 6RUHVL 0DUNR 6DYLFNDV5HVHDUFKHUV LQ WKH ILHOG RI KHDOWK KDYH VWXGLHG )73 DV D SRVVLEOH SUHGLFWRU RI PDQ\ DGGLFWLYH DWWLWXGHV DQG EHKDYLRUV VXFK DV VPRNLQJ DOFRKRO XVH SK\VLFDO H[HUFLVH DQG KHDOWK\ HDWLQJ KDELWV HJ $GDPV 1HWWOH*XWKULH/HVVO2FKL :DUG*HQHUDOO\WKHVHVWXGLHVLQGLFDWH WKDWLQGLYLGXDOVGLIIHULQWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKH\WKLQNDQGIHHODERXWWKHIXWXUHDQGLQWKH DPRXQWRIHIIRUWWKH\SXWLQWRUHDOL]LQJWKHLUIXWXUHJRDOV
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²ZLWK HDFK GRPDLQ XWLOL]LQJ WKHLU RZQ GRPDLQ UHOHYDQW RSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQV DQG PHDVXUHV %HFDXVH PRWLYDWLRQ LQ WKHVH OLIH GRPDLQV OLHV DW WKHFRUHRIKXPDQIXQFWLRQLQJV\VWHPDWLFDOO\UHYLHZLQJWKHVHGRPDLQVWRJHWKHUPD\SURYLGH
23 VXEVWDQWLDOHYLGHQFHWKDW)73HIIHFWVKROGDFURVVOLIHGRPDLQV7KXVZHDVN+RZVWURQJDUH WKH)73HIIHFWVDFURVVWKHHGXFDWLRQZRUNDQGKHDOWKGRPDLQV"
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²ZLWKRXWUHIHUULQJ WR D VSHFLILF GRPDLQ 2YHU WKH \HDUV UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH HPSKDVL]HG WKDW VXEVHTXHQW VWXGLHV VKRXOGIRFXVRQWKHFRQWHQWRIWKH)73PHDVXUH/HQVHWDO7URPPVGRUII\HW ZH GR QRW NQRZ ZKLFK W\SH RI )73 PHDVXUH LH LWV FRPSRQHQWV DQG IRFXV LV PRVW SUHGLFWLYH)RU WKLV UHDVRQ ZH DVN 'R WKH VWUHQJWKV RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ )73 DQG RXWFRPHVGHSHQGRQWKHW\SHRIPHDVXUHDQGIRFXVRIWKH)73FRQVWUXFW"
7KLUGDQRWKHUUHDVRQIRUWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQHIIHFWVL]HVPD\EHWKHFXOWXUDOFRQWH[WRI WKHVWXG\DQGRUWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVDPSOHVLQYROYHGHJJHQGHUDJHVHH*UHHQH 'H%DFNHU 0F,QHUQH\ %HFDXVH WKH FXOWXUDO YDOXHV RI VRFLHWLHV FDQ GLIIHU VLJQLILFDQWO\ +RIVWHGH +RIVWHGH +RIVWHGH 0LQNRY SHRSOH¶V WLPH RULHQWDWLRQWRWKHSDVWSUHVHQWRUIXWXUHPD\DOVRGLIIHUOHDGLQJWRGLIIHUHQFHVLQ)73HIIHFW VL]HV DFURVV FXOWXUHV &RQVHTXHQWO\ ZH DVN $UH WKH )73 HIIHFWV JHQHUDOL]DEOH DFURVV FXOWXUHV"
)RXUWKWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKH)73HIIHFWVL]HVHHPVWRYDU\DFFRUGLQJWRWKHW\SHRI RXWFRPHVXFKDVLQGLYLGXDOV¶DWWLWXGHVEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQVDQGEHKDYLRUVZLWKLQDVSHFLILF OLIHGRPDLQ*XOOH\-RLUHPDQ6KDIIHU%DOOLHW 6WUDWKPDQ6DYLFNDV6LOOLQJ 6FKZDUW] )RU H[DPSOH *XOOH\ IRXQG VWURQJHU UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ )73 DQG SK\VLFDO DFWLYLW\ DWWLWXGHV DQG LQWHQWLRQ WR H[HUFLVH WKDQ ZLWK SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ H[HUFLVH 6LPLODUO\ LQ WKH ZRUN GRPDLQ 6DYLFNDV HW DO IRXQG VWURQJHU UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ
24
)73DQGDWWLWXGHVWRZDUGYRFDWLRQDOPDWXULW\WKDQZLWKGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDELOLW\7KHTXHVWLRQ LV GRHV WKH VWUHQJWK RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ )73 DQG RXWFRPHV YDU\ DPRQJ W\SHV RI RXWFRPHV"
*LYHQ WKH YDULHW\ RI )73 PHDVXUHV VWXG\ FRQWH[WV DQG VWXG\ RXWFRPHV LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR H[DPLQH ZKHWKHU RU QRW H[LVWLQJ LQFRQVLVWHQFLHV LQ UHVHDUFK ILQGLQJV PD\ EH H[SODLQHG RU VROYHG DQG ZKHWKHU RU QRW )73 PD\ EH FRQFHLYHG RI DV D UREXVW SUHGLFWRU RI KXPDQPRWLYDWLRQDQGEHKDYLRUDFURVVGLIIHUHQWOLIHGRPDLQV
6WXG\JRDOV
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²WKH PRVW SRZHUIXO DQG DFFXUDWHWRROIRUV\VWHPDWLFDOO\UHYLHZLQJWKHODWHVWUHVHDUFKZLWKLQDQGDFURVVUHVHDUFKILHOGV WKDW KDYH XWLOL]HG GLVSDUDWH PHWKRGV &RRSHU -RKQVRQ %R\QWRQ ,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\PHWDDQDO\VHVDOORZHGXVWRGUDZFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWWKH)73FRQVWUXFWDVD GULYHURIHGXFDWLRQDOZRUNDQGKHDOWKRXWFRPHV
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
25 UHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ)73DQGRXWFRPHV:HDOVRVRXJKWWRH[DPLQHLIWKHIRFXVRIWKH)73 PHDVXUH JHQHUDO YV VSHFLILF LQIOXHQFHG WKH VWUHQJWK RI )73±RXWFRPH UHODWLRQVKLS VR ZH WHVWHG )73 IRFXV DV D PRGHUDWRU 7KLV DPELWLRXV JRDO DOORZHG XV WR SLQSRLQW ZKLFK )73 FRQVWUXFWPRVWVWURQJO\UHODWHGWRHGXFDWLRQDOZRUNDQGKHDOWKRXWFRPHVWKHUHE\DGYDQFLQJ )73WKHRU\
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¶V )LVKEHLQ $M]HQ WKHRU\ RI SODQQHG EHKDYLRU 73% $M]HQ DQG )LVKEHLQ HVWDEOLVKHG WKLV WKHRU\ RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW KXPDQ EHKDYLRUV DUH JXLGHG E\ DWWLWXGHV WRZDUG EHKDYLRU QRUPDWLYH EHOLHIV FRQWURO EHOLHIV DQG EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQV7KH73%KHOSHGXVWRLQWHJUDWHWKHILQGLQJVIURPWKHGLIIHUHQWUHVHDUFKGRPDLQV DQG DIIRUGHG XV D JUHDWHU WKHRUHWLFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI KRZ )73 DIIHFWV VSHFLILFRXWFRPHV
:KDW IROORZV LV D VXPPDU\ RI GLIIHUHQW )73 FRQVWUXFWV DQG RSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQV 7R V\VWHPDWLFDOO\GHDOZLWKWKHGLYHUVLW\RI)73FRQVWUXFWVZHGHYHORSHGDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOIRU UHYLHZLQJ WKH )73 VWXGLHV DFURVV WKH WKUHH OLIH GRPDLQV DQG D JHQHUDO GHILQLWLRQ RI )73 LQ RUGHUWRVHOHFWWKH)73VWXGLHVIRURXUPHWDDQDO\VHV/DWHURQZHGLVFXVVFXOWXUDODQGRWKHU GHPRJUDSKLFDQGVWXG\YDULDEOHVDVSRVVLEOHPRGHUDWRUVRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ)73DQG WKH RXWFRPHV :LWK UHVSHFW WR JURXSLQJ GLIIHUHQW RXWFRPH W\SHV ZH GLVFXVV WKH 73% DV D
26
WKHRUHWLFDOIUDPHZRUNDIWHUZKLFKZHGHVFULEHRXUPHWKRGDQGUHSRUWDQGGLVFXVVWKHUHVXOWV RIRXUPHWDDQDO\VHV
)73FRQVWUXFWV$FRQFHSWXDOPRGHO
7KH OLWHUDWXUH RQ )73 LQFOXGHV D YDULHW\ RI GHILQLWLRQV GHVFULELQJ LW DV DQ DELOLW\ WR LPDJLQHRQH¶VIXWXUH*MHVPHWKHDQWLFLSDWLRQRIIXWXUHJRDOV$GDPV :KLWH +XVPDQ /HQV 6WUDWKPDQ HW DO DQ DWWLWXGLQDO FRQFHSW 0HOOR :RUUHOO 1XUPL3HHWVPD=LPEDUGR %R\GRUDVDQLQVWUXPHQWDOYDOXHRI SUHVHQW DFWLYLWLHV WR UHDFK YDOXHG JRDOV LQ WKH IXWXUH 6LPRQV 'HZLWWH /HQV $FFRUGLQJO\ UHVHDUFKHV KDYH XWLOL]HG GLIIHUHQW )73 FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQV HJ IXWXUH RULHQWDWLRQIXWXUHIRFXVFRQVLGHUDWLRQRI IXWXUHFRQVHTXHQFHVDQGPHDVXUHVVHH 6KLSSHW DO6WRODUVNL)LHXODLQH YDQ%HHN
)73 LV DQ DWWLWXGH WKDW HQFRPSDVVHV SHUVRQDO FRJQLWLRQV IHHOLQJV DQG EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHIXWXUH&RJQLWLRQVUHODWHWRWKRXJKWVDERXWIXWXUHRXWFRPHVDQG JRDOVWKDWDUHYDOXHGDQGLQVWUXPHQWDOIRUFXUUHQWGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGEHKDYLRUVHJJRDO SODQQLQJ DQG VWULYLQJ )HHOLQJV FRUUHVSRQG WR WKH HPRWLRQV HJ KRSH DQG IHDU WKDW DUH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIXWXUHDQGEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQVUHODWHWRLQGLYLGXDO¶VSODQVWRHQJDJHLQ EHKDYLRUVLQRUGHUWRUHDOL]HIXWXUHJRDOV )73UHVHDUFKLQGLIIHUHQWOLIHGRPDLQVKDVGHYHORSHGDYDULHW\RI)73FRQVWUXFWVVHH 7DEOH)RUH[DPSOHDOWKRXJKVRPH)73FRQVWUXFWVPDLQO\FRQFHUQLQGLYLGXDOV¶WKRXJKWV DERXWWKHIXWXUH*MHVPH6KLSSHWDOWKHJUHDWPDMRULW\DOVRHPEUDFHVSODQQLQJ RUDQGIHHOLQJVUHODWHGWRWKHIXWXUH+XVPDQ 6KHOO-DQHLUR0HOOR :RUUHOO =LPEDUGR %R\G 2WKHU )73 FRQVWUXFWV UHIHU WR D VLQJOH FRPSRQHQW HJ FRJQLWLRQ IRU H[DPSOH WKH IXWXUH IRFXV PHDVXUH E\ 6KLSS HW DO RU D PL[WXUH RI FRJQLWLYH DIIHFWLYH DQG EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQ FRPSRQHQWV HJ )73 RQ VFKRRO DQG SURIHVVLRQDOFDUHHUPHDVXUHVHH3HHWVPD
Motivational power of future time pers pective: Meta -analyses 7DEOH )73&RQVWUXFWV &RQVW UXFW $XW KRUV 'HIL QLWLRQ &RQFH SWXDOL]DWLRQ )XWX UH WHP SRUDO GHSW K %OXHGRUQ 'LVWDQFHL QWRW KHIXW XUHW KDWL QGL YLGXDOV DQGFROOHFWLYLWLHVFRQVLGHUZ KHQ FRQWHP SODWL QJHYHQWV WKDWP D\KDSSH Q 5DQJHV IURP VKRUWGHSW KWR ORQJGH SWK )XWX UH RULH QWDWL RQ %RZHOV ³$FOHDURUJDQL]HGDSSURDF KW RIXW XUH HYHQWV DQGDFWL YLWLHV¶¶S &ODULW\DQGDSSURDFKWR IXW XUHHYHQWVDQGDF WLYLWLHV )73 &DUVWHQVHQD QG/DQJ ,QGLYL GXDOV ¶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¶VF XUUHQWEH KDYL RULV LQIOXH QFHGE\IXWXUHF RQFH UQV ,QFO XGHV IRXUFRP SRQHQWVLQ YRO YHP HQWWKH GH JUHH WRZ KLFKRQH IRF XVHV RQIXWXUH HYHQWV DQWLFL SDWLRQKRZZHOO RQHSUH SDUHV IRUWKH IXWX UHHYH QWV RFFXSDW LRQWKH DP RXQWRIWLP HRQHWKL QNVDERXWWKHI XWXUHD QGVSHHGWKH UDWH DWZKLF KRQH SHUFHL YHVWK HIXWXUHD SSURDF KL QJ )73 +XVP DQD QG/HQV ³3UHVHQWDQWLFL SDWLRQRIIXW XUHJRDOV¶¶S RUDVDSH UVRQ¶VF RQFH SW XDOL]DWLRQRI IXW XUHD QGFRQQHFWLRQWRLW 7ZRGLP HQVLRQVF RQQHFWHG QHVVGLVSRVLWLR QWR DQWLFLSDWH LQWKH S UHVHQW W KHOR QJ WHUP FRQVHTXHQFHVRIDSRWH QW LDODFWLRQLWLVDOVRVRP HWLP HVU HI HUUHGDVSHUFHLYH LQVWUXP HQWDOLW\RUX WLOLW\DQGYDOHQFHGLVSRVLWLRQWRDVFUL EH KLJ KYDOXH WRJRDOVLQ WKHIXWXUHUHODWLYHWRJ RDOVLQWKHSUHVH QW )73 /HZLQ ³7KHVFRSHRIWLP HDKHDGZKL FKLQ IOXHQFHV SUHVH QWEHKD YL RU´ S )73 /RP UDQ]6KP RWNLQ DQG .DW] QHOVRQ ³: D\VLQZKLF KSHRSOHF RQF HL YHRI RUJDQL]HDQGIHHODERXWW KHLUIXW XUH ¶¶S )XWX UHDWWLWXGH 0HOOR :RUUHOO 3RVLWLYHRUQH JDWLYHDW WLWXGHW RZD UGVWKH IXW XUH )73 1XUP L ,QGLYL GXDOV ¶WK RXJKWVD QGDWWLWXGHV WRZDUG WKHIXWXUH ,QFO XGHV P RWLYDWLRQZKDWLQW HUHVWV SHRSOH KDYHLQ WKHIXWXU H SODQQLQJKRZSH SODQW KHUHDOL]DWLRQRIWKHLU LQW HUHVWVDQGHYDOXDWL RQH[WHQ WWRZKLFKSH RSOHH[SHFW WKHLULQWH UHVWVW REHUHDOL]HG )73 1XWWLQ )URP WKHVXEMH FWLYHSRLQW RIYLHZ)73LV WKHDUHDRIP RUHRUOHVV GLVWDQ WDQGGHQVH
Chapter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± H[WHUQDOUH JXODWLRQWKH SUHVH QWWDV NLV FRP SXOVRU\DQGWKHLQGLYL GXD OLVRQO\GUL YHQE\ H [WULQVLFUHDVRQV SUR[LP DOXWLOLW\ ±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¶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
29 )73FRQVWUXFWW\SHV
,QRUGHUWRDVVHPEOHDYDLODEOHFRQVWUXFWVDQGPHDVXUHVLQWRDSDUVLPRQLRXVPRGHORI )73 DIIHFWLQJ PRWLYDWLRQ DWWLWXGHV DQG EHKDYLRUV LQ HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN DQG KHDOWK ZH FDWHJRUL]HGWKHVHGLIIHUHQWFRQVWUXFWVDVDFRJQLWLRQEWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIFRJQLWLRQDQG EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQ F WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI FRJQLWLRQ DQG DIIHFW DQG G D PL[WXUH RI FRJQLWLRQEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQDQGDIIHFW)LJXUH&RJQLWLRQUHIHUVWRDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VIRFXV RQWKHIXWXUHHJLGHDV&RJQLWLRQDQGEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQWRJHWKHUFRQFHUQDQLQGLYLGXDO¶V WKRXJKWV SHUFHSWLRQV DQG HIIRUWV UHODWHG WR WKH IXWXUH LH SODQQLQJ VHWWLQJ IXWXUH JRDOV &RJQLWLRQ DQG DIIHFW WRJHWKHU FRQFHUQ WKH DIIHFWLYH WRQH RI IXWXUH FRJQLWLRQV²VSHFLILF HPRWLRQVUHODWHWRIXWXUHJRDOVHJKDSSLQHVVZRUU\IHDU²DQGWKHODVWFDWHJRU\FRPELQHV FRJQLWLRQ DIIHFW DQG EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQ IRU D FHUWDLQ DFWLRQ %DVHG RQ WKH SUHVHQFH DQG FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH FRPSRQHQWV LH FRJQLWLRQ EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQ DIIHFW HDFK )73 PHDVXUHFDQEHDVVLJQHGWRRQHRIRXUIRXU)73FRQVWUXFWW\SHV
)LJXUH&RQFHSWXDOPRGHOIRUJURXSLQJ)73DFURVVOLIHGRPDLQV
%HFDXVHDIIHFWDQGEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQSOD\DSLYRWDOUROHLQJRDOGLUHFWHGEHKDYLRU 1XUPL 1XWWLQ 3HHWVPD HW DO 6HJLQHU 7URPPVGRUII ZH SURSRVH WKDW )73 FRQVWUXFWV WKDW HPEUDFH WKLQNLQJ DERXW WKH IXWXUH LQFOXGLQJ FRJQLWLRQ
30
IHHOLQJV DQG EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQV ZLOO EH PRUH VWURQJO\ UHODWHG WR HGXFDWLRQDO ZRUN DQG KHDOWKRXWFRPHVDVFRPSDUHGWR)73FRQVWUXFWVWKDWPHUHO\LQFOXGHFRJQLWLRQDQGRUDIIHFW
)73IRFXV
$OWKRXJK 1XWWLQ DQG /HQV VWDWHG WKDW ³WLPH SHUVSHFWLYH FDQQRW EH FRQFHLYHG LQGHSHQGHQWO\RILWVFRQWHQW´SVRPH)73PHDVXUHVDUHPRUHJHQHUDOPHDQLQJWKH\GR QRW VSHFLI\ WKH FRQWH[W ZKHUHDV RWKHUV IRFXV RQ D VSHFLILF OLIH GRPDLQ 6RPH H[DPSOHV RI JHQHUDO )73 PHDVXUHV LQFOXGH=LPEDUGR DQG %R\G¶V )XWXUH 7LPH 3HUVSHFWLYH VFDOH DQG6WUDWKPDQHWDO¶V&RQVLGHUDWLRQRI)XWXUH&RQVHTXHQFHVFDOH&)&67KH&)&6 LQFOXGHVLWHPVVXFKDV³,EHOLHYHWKDWDSHUVRQ¶VGD\VKRXOGEHSODQQHGDKHDGHDFKPRUQLQJ´ DQG³,WKLQNLWLVPRUHLPSRUWDQWWRSHUIRUPDEHKDYLRUZLWKLPSRUWDQWGLVWDQWFRQVHTXHQFHV WKDQDEHKDYLRUZLWKOHVVLPSRUWDQWLPPHGLDWHFRQVHTXHQFHV´
([DPSOHV RI )73 PHDVXUHV WKDW IRFXV RQ D VSHFLILF OLIH GRPDLQ LQFOXGH VFDOHV GHYHORSHGE\3HHWVPDDQG6HJLQHU1XUPL3RROHDQG6KR\HU7KHVHPHDVXUHV VSHFLI\ WKH OLIH GRPDLQ E\ LQFOXGLQJ LWHPV WKDW H[SOLFLWO\ UHIHU WR VFKRRO IXWXUH FDUHHU RU KRPHZRUN HJ ³, OLNH WR WKLQN RI P\ IXWXUH ZRUN RU VWXG\´ ³, DP PDNLQJ VHULRXV SUHSDUDWLRQVIRUP\IXWXUHHGXFDWLRQ´)RQJDQG+DOOGHYHORSHGVLPLODUPHDVXUHVLQ WKHKHDOWKGRPDLQDQGLQFOXGHGLWHPVVXFKDV³,VSHQGDJUHDWGHDORIWLPHWKLQNLQJDERXWKRZ P\ SUHVHQW HDWLQJ KDELWV ZLOO DIIHFW P\ OLIH ODWHU RQ´ DQG ³, QHYHU FRQVLGHU WKH ORQJWHUP FRQVHTXHQFHVRIVWD\LQJILWEHIRUH,H[HUFLVH´%DVHGRQWKHSULQFLSOHRIFRPSDWLELOLW\$M]HQ $M]HQ )LVKEHLQ ZKLFK UHTXLUHV WKDW DWWLWXGLQDO DQG EHKDYLRUDO PHDVXUHV LQYROYHVLPLODUDFWLRQVWDUJHWVFRQWH[WVDQGWLPHHOHPHQWVZHSURSRVHWKDWGRPDLQVSHFLILF )73PHDVXUHVZLOOVKRZVWURQJHUUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKRXWFRPHVLQHGXFDWLRQZRUNDQGKHDOWK WKDQJHQHUDO)73PHDVXUHV
&XOWXUDOFRQWH[W
5HVHDUFKHUV KDYH DUJXHG WKDW DQ LQGLYLGXDO¶V )73 GHSHQGV RQ KLV RU KHU FXOWXUDO LGHQWLW\ /DPP 6FKPLGW 7URPPVGRUII /HQV HW DO 0F,QHUQH\ 0RUVHOOL 6HLMWV 0F,QHUQH\ SRVWXODWHG WKDW FXOWXUH PD\ LQIOXHQFH WKH H[WHQVLRQRIIXWXUHWKLQNLQJDVVRFLHWLHVGLIIHULQYDOXHVHJFRQWULEXWLQJWRWKHGHYHORSPHQW RI WKH VRFLHW\ RU SUHVHUYLQJ WKH VWDWXV TXR %DVHG RQ WKH WLPHSHUVSHFWLYH SURILOHV RI FRXQWULHV 6LUFRYD HW DO IRXQG VLJQLILFDQW DQG VWURQJ DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ FRXQWU\OHYHO )73 VFRUHV DQG +RIVWHGH HW DO¶V FXOWXUDO GLPHQVLRQV RI XQFHUWDLQW\
31 DYRLGDQFH DQG LQGXOJHQFHUHVWUDLQW ,Q RXU PHWDDQDO\VHV ZH EXLOW XSRQ WKHVH WKHRUHWLFDO QRWLRQVDQGSULRUUHVHDUFKE\H[SORULQJZKHWKHURUQRW)73±RXWFRPHUHODWLRQVKLSVGHSHQGRQ WKHFXOWXUDOFRQWH[WDVRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGZLWK+RIVWHGH¶VFXOWXUDOGLPHQVLRQV
7KH LQGLYLGXDOLVPFROOHFWLYLVP GLPHQVLRQ UHIOHFWV ZKHWKHU SHRSOH¶V VHOILPDJH LV GHILQHG LQ WHUPV RI ³,´ RU ³ZH´ +RIVWHGH $OWKRXJK LQGLYLGXDOLVWLF FXOWXUHV SULRULWL]H SHUVRQDO DFKLHYHPHQWV VXFFHVV DQG DVSLUDWLRQV RYHU FRPPXQLW\ JRDOV HJ WKH JRDOVRIDIDPLO\RURIDQRUJDQL]DWLRQFROOHFWLYLVWLFFXOWXUHVYDOXHVKDUHGJRDOV,WKDVEHHQ IRXQGWKDWLQGLYLGXDOLVWLFFRPSDUHGWRFROOHFWLYLVWLFFXOWXUHVDUHPRUHIXWXUHRULHQWHGEHFDXVH WKH\ IRFXV RQ DEVWUDFW HYHQWV DQG XQLYHUVDO UXOHV WKDW DUH DSSOLFDEOH DFURVV VLWXDWLRQV²DV RSSRVHG WR FRQFUHWH DQG SDUWLFXODU HYHQWV VLWXDWHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW WLPH 6KLUDL %HUHVQHYLFLHQH 7KLV ILQGLQJ VXJJHVWV WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV LQ LQGLYLGXDOLVWLF FXOWXUHV DUH PRUHFRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHLUIXWXUHDQGDUHEHWWHUDEOHWRHQYLVLRQLW&RQVHTXHQWO\ZHH[SHFW WKDW )73 ZLOO UHODWH PRUH VWURQJO\ WR HGXFDWLRQDO ZRUN DQG KHDOWK RXWFRPHV LQ LQGLYLGXDOLVWLFFXOWXUHVWKDQLQFROOHFWLYLVWLFFXOWXUHV
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±RXWFRPH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKHVH FXOWXUHV
8QFHUWDLQW\DYRLGDQFH UHIOHFWV LQGLYLGXDOV¶ OHYHO RI FRPIRUW ZLWK XQVWUXFWXUHG DQG XQSUHGLFWDEOH VLWXDWLRQV +RIVWHGH :KHUHDV FXOWXUHV KLJK LQ XQFHUWDLQW\DYRLGDQFH PD\IHHODVWURQJQHHGIRUDGHILQLWLYHSURJQRVLVWLPHOLQHDQGRXWFRPHH[SHFWDWLRQVFXOWXUHV ORZLQXQFHUWDLQW\DYRLGDQFHPD\EHPRUHFRQWHQWZLWKWKHXQNQRZQDQGKDYHOHVVQHHGIRU FRJQLWLYH FORVXUH +RIVWHGH HW DO &RQVHTXHQWO\ ZH SURSRVH WKDW )73 ZLOO PRUH VWURQJO\ UHODWH WR HGXFDWLRQDO ZRUN DQG KHDOWK RXWFRPHV LQ KLJK FRPSDUHG WR ORZ XQFHUWDLQW\DYRLGDQFHFXOWXUHV
32
,QGXOJHQFHUHVWUDLQW LQYROYHV WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK D VRFLHW\ FRQWUROV GHVLUHV DQG LPSXOVHV5HODWLYHO\ZHDNFRQWUROLVWHUPHGLQGXOJHQFHDQGUHODWLYHO\VWURQJFRQWUROUHVWUDLQW $VRFLHW\WKDWSHUPLWV³UHODWLYHO\IUHHJUDWLILFDWLRQRIEDVLFDQGQDWXUDOKXPDQGHVLUHVUHODWHG WRHQMR\LQJOLIHDQGKDYLQJIXQ´+RIVWHGHSUHSUHVHQWVLQGXOJHQFHFRPSDUHGWRD VRFLHW\ WKDW VXSSUHVVHV DQG FRQWUROV JUDWLILFDWLRQ E\ PHDQV RI VRFLDO QRUPV 6LUFRYD HW DO IRXQG WKDW FXOWXUHV KLJK LQ LQGXOJHQFH KDYH D ORZHU )73 WKDQ FXOWXUHV ORZ LQ LQGXOJHQFH%DVHGRQWKLVZHH[SHFWWKDWWKH)73±RXWFRPHUHODWLRQVKLSVZLOOEHZHDNHULQ FXOWXUHVZLWKKLJKLQGXOJHQFHWKDQLQFXOWXUHVZLWKORZLQGXOJHQFH
$GGLWLRQDOVDPSOHDQGVWXG\PRGHUDWRUV
'HPRJUDSKLFYDULDEOHVVXFKDVDJHDQGJHQGHUKDYHEHHQIRXQGUHOHYDQWIRU)73 *MHVPH *UHHQH 'H%DFNHU )RU H[DPSOH *MHVPH IRXQG WKDW JLUOV WKRXJKWPRUHDERXWWKHIXWXUHWKDQER\V6WXG\GHVLJQDQG\HDURISXEOLFDWLRQPD\DOVREH UHOHYDQW IRU WKH )73±RXWFRPH UHODWLRQVKLS &URVVVHFWLRQDO GDWD PD\ SUHVHQW KLJKHU FRUUHODWLRQV WKDQ ORQJLWXGLQDO GDWD EHFDXVH RI FRPPRQ PHWKRG YDULDQFH 3RGVDNRII 0DF.HQ]LH /HH 3RGVDNRII :LWK UHVSHFW WR WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ \HDU LW ZRXOG EH LQWHUHVWLQJWRH[SORUHZKHWKHURUQRWWKHHIIHFWRI)73RQRXWFRPHVKDVFKDQJHGEDVHGRQWKH \HDUZKHQWKHVWXGLHVZHUHFRQGXFWHG
)73DQGGLIIHUHQWRXWFRPHW\SHV7KH73%
)73 KDV EHHQ UHODWHG WR GLIIHUHQW RXWFRPHV DFURVV WKH GRPDLQV RI HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN DQG KHDOWK HJ VFKRRO SHUIRUPDQFH MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ SK\VLFDO DFWLYLW\ *URXSLQJ WKHVH RXWFRPHV LQ D VRXQG IUDPHZRUN ZRXOG \LHOG D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH )73±RXWFRPH UHODWLRQVKLSV7KH73%$M]HQ)LVKEHLQ $M]HQLVRQHRIWKHPRVWLQIOXHQWLDO DQGDSSOLHGPRGHOVXVHGWRSUHGLFWDQGH[SODLQKXPDQEHKDYLRUVLQWKHHGXFDWLRQZRUNDQG KHDOWK GRPDLQV $OEDUUDFtQ -RKQVRQ )LVKEHLQ 0XHOOHUOHLOH 'DYLV $M]HQ 6DXQGHUV :LOOLDPV/HH3DUN .RR7KH73%UHOLHVRQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDW KXPDQ EHKDYLRUV DUH JXLGHG E\ EHOLHIV DWWLWXGHV WRZDUG WKH EHKDYLRU VXEMHFWLYH QRUPV SHUFHLYHGEHKDYLRUDOFRQWURODQGEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQ$WWLWXGHVWRZDUGWKHEHKDYLRUUHODWHWR DQ LQGLYLGXDO¶V SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH HYDOXDWLRQV RI SHUIRUPDQFH UHJDUGLQJ D SDUWLFXODU EHKDYLRUDQGDUHGHWHUPLQHGE\EHKDYLRUDOEHOLHIVOLQNLQJWKHEHKDYLRUWRGLIIHUHQWRXWFRPHV 6XEMHFWLYHQRUPVUHIHUWRWKHSHUFHLYHGVRFLDOSUHVVXUHWRSHUIRUPRUWRDEVWDLQIURPDFHUWDLQ EHKDYLRU DQG DUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ DFFHVVLEOH QRUPDWLYH EHOLHIV UHJDUGLQJ RWKHU SHRSOH¶V
33 SHUFHSWLRQ RI LPSRUWDQFH 3HUFHLYHG EHKDYLRUDO FRQWURO UHIOHFWV SHRSOH¶V SHUFHSWLRQ RI WKH HDVHRUGLIILFXOW\RISHUIRUPLQJWKHGHVLUHGEHKDYLRUWKXVLWLQFOXGHVLQGLYLGXDOV¶EHOLHIVLQ WKHLU DELOLWLHV VHOIHIILFDF\ WR H[HFXWH D FHUWDLQ EHKDYLRU )LVKEHLQ $M]HQ %HKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQV LQGLFDWH ³KRZ PXFK HIIRUW SHRSOH DUH SODQQLQJ WR H[HUW LQ RUGHU WR SHUIRUP WKH EHKDYLRU´ $M]HQ S DQG FDSWXUH WKH PRWLYDWLRQDO IDFWRUV WKDW LQIOXHQFHWKDWEHKDYLRU
'LVWLQJXLVKLQJWKHRXWFRPHW\SHVLQWKHHGXFDWLRQZRUNDQGKHDOWKGRPDLQVEDVHGRQ WKH73%PD\GHHSHQRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVLQYROYHGLQWKH)73± RXWFRPHUHODWLRQVKLSVDQGFRXOGH[SODLQWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHLUHIIHFWVL]HV$FFRUGLQJWRWKH 73% EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQ LV WKH PRVW SUR[LPDO SUHGLFWRU RI DFWXDO EHKDYLRU 5HVHDUFK VXSSRUWVWKLVEXWLWDOVRVKRZVWKDWWKHEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQ±EHKDYLRUUHODWLRQVKLSLVIDUIURP SHUIHFW:HEE 6KHHUDQ%HKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQVDUHLQWXUQLQIOXHQFHGE\DWWLWXGHV QRUPDWLYH EHOLHIV DQG SHUFHLYHG EHKDYLRUDO FRQWURO )73 LQFOXGHV DQ LQGLYLGXDO¶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
0(7+2' /LWHUDWXUHVHDUFK
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
34
DQGXVHGILOWHUVIRUWHVWDQGPHDVXUHPHQWWHUPVHJ=LPEDUGR7LPH3HUVSHFWLYH,QYHQWRU\ 7HPSRUDO )RFXV 6FDOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZH FRQGXFWHG D EDFNZDUG VHDUFK RI WKH UHIHUHQFH VHFWLRQVRISXEOLVKHGDUWLFOHVWRLGHQWLI\UHOHYDQWDUWLFOHVPLVVHGLQWKHFRPSXWHUL]HGVHDUFK HJ/HQVHWDO6HLMWV
7R DYRLG SXEOLFDWLRQ ELDV DQG WKH ³ILOH GUDZHU SUREOHP´ 5RVHQWKDO ZH VHDUFKHG IRU ERWK SXEOLVKHG DQG XQSXEOLVKHG UHSRUWV DV ZHOO DV GRFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQV DQG PDVWHU¶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
,QFOXVLRQDQGH[FOXVLRQFULWHULD
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²VXFKDVWKH6SHHGDQG'LVWDQFH([WHQVLRQVXEVFDOHIURP +XVPDQDQG6KHOO¶V)73PHDVXUH:KHQ)73ZDVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKH&RQVLGHUDWLRQRI
)XWXUH&RQVHTXHQFHVVFDOH6WUDWKPDQHWDODQGFRQVLGHUHGDVDWZRIDFWRUFRQVWUXFW
LH LPPHGLDWH YV IXWXUH ZH RQO\ XVHG WKH IXWXUH VXEVFDOH EHFDXVH WKH LWHPV RI WKH LPPHGLDWH VXEVFDOH UHIOHFW SUHVHQW UDWKHU WKDQ IXWXUH RULHQWDWLRQ $GDPV -RLUHPDQ %DOOLHW 6SURWW 6SDQJHQEHUJ 6FKXOW] 5HJDUGLQJ WKH 7LPH 3HUVSHFWLYH VFDOH IRU
35 VFKRRODQGSURIHVVLRQDOFDUHHUE\3HHWVPDZKLFKLVFRPSULVHGRIDVKRUWDQGORQJ WHUPIXWXUHVXEVFDOHZHH[FOXGHGWKHILUVWVXEVFDOHEHFDXVHLWVLWHPVUHIOHFWWKHSUHVHQWWLPH IUDPHHJ³,KDYHOLWWOHXVHQRZRIZKDW,OHDUQDWVFKRRO´6WXGLHVWKDWXVHGWKH+RSHVFDOH 6Q\GHU HW DO ZHUH DOVR H[FOXGHG EHFDXVH KRSH LV FRQVLGHUHG D VHSDUDWH FRQVWUXFW 6WXGLHVWKDWPL[HGWKH)73PHDVXUHZLWKRWKHUFRQVWUXFWVHJUHODWHGWRVHOIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ WKHRU\DFKLHYHPHQWJRDOWKHRU\ZHUHH[FOXGHGLIWKHUHSRUWHGFRUUHODWLRQGLGQRWFRQVLGHU WKH)73±RXWFRPHRILQWHUHVWSHUVH
6HFRQG ZH UHTXLUHG WKDW WKH )73 FRQVWUXFW EH PHDVXUHG ZLWK D VHOIUHSRUW PHWKRG ZKLFK LV GRPLQDQW LQ )73 UHVHDUFK DQG PDWFKHV WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO QDWXUH RI WKH FRQVWUXFW 3DXOKXV 9D]LUH6FKPLWW:HH[FOXGHGVWXGLHVWKDWPHDVXUHG)73ZLWKIUHH UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV DQG RSHQHQGHG TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ,Q WKH SDVW V DQG V WKH IUHH UHVSRQVHPHWKRGVZHUHXVHGPRVWRIWHQHJ³WHOOPHDVWRU\´³VWRU\FRPSOHWLRQ´³7$7´ ³LPSRUWDQWHYHQWV´³IXWXUHHYHQWV´DORQJVLGHSURMHFWLYHPHWKRGVHJ&RWWOH¶V&LUFOHWHVWV RUDFRPELQDWLRQRIIUHHUHVSRQVHDQGVFDOLQJPHWKRGVHJ7URPPVGRUII/DPP 6FKPLGW+RZHYHUDOORIWKHVHPHWKRGVKDGORZUHOLDELOLW\DQGVFRULQJGLIILFXOWLHVDQG QRZDGD\V UHVHDUFKHUV PRVWO\ HPSOR\ WKH VFDOLQJ PHWKRGV ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW ZH H[FOXGHG VWXGLHV WKDW PHDVXUHG SRVVLEOH IXWXUH ZRUN VHOYHV²D FRQVWUXFW WKDW UHODWHV WR LQGLYLGXDOV¶VHOIFRQFHSWDQGWKDWKDVEHHQPRVWO\DVVHVVHGZLWKDQRSHQHQGHGPHDVXUHHJ *UHHQH :KHDWOH\/HRQGDUL
7KLUG )73 KDG WR UHODWH WR RXWFRPHV WKDW UHIHU WR DWWLWXGHV PRWLYDWLRQV EHKDYLRUDO LQWHQWLRQV DQG EHKDYLRUV LQ WKH OLIH GRPDLQV RI HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN DQG KHDOWK 6WXGLHV WKDW OLQNHG)73WRWKHPHVDQGFRQVWUXFWVLQRWKHUGRPDLQVHJLGHQWLW\IRUPDWLRQ PHDQLQJRI OLIHGUHDPVJDPHSOD\LQJZHUHRPLWWHG
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
36
)LIWKZHUHTXLUHGVWXGLHVWRLQFOXGHDJHQHUDOQRQFOLQLFDOVDPSOH)RUH[DPSOH ZH H[FOXGHGVWXGLHVZLWKDGMXGLFDWHGDGROHVFHQWV5REELQV %U\DQEHFDXVHWKHILQGLQJV RI WKHVH VWXGLHV ZHUH OLNHO\ FRQIRXQGHG E\ VSHFLILF VDPSOH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKXV ZHUH OHVV JHQHUDOL]DEOHWRWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ
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
Motivational power of future time pers pective: Meta -analyses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rQFLR*RP HV &%, *HQH UDO 3RUW XJDO $7%%, &URVV VHFWLRQDO +DX<HH &%, *HQH UDO &KLQD $7%%, &URVV VHFWLRQDO +LOSHUW+XVPDQ6WXP S.L P &KXQJ 'XJJDQ &%, *HQHUDO 86$ 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO +RUVWP DQVKRI =LP LWDW &%, *HQH UDO $X VW UDOLD $7% 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO /HY\ (DUOH\ ZLQH &%, *HQH UDO 86$ 3%& &URVV VHFWLRQDO 3HHWVP D 0,; 6SHFLILF 1HWKH UODQGV 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO
Chapter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
Motivational power of future time pers pective: Meta -analyses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
Chapter 2 40 7DEHU &%, *HQH UDO 86$ $7% 3%& &URVVVHFWLR QDO :DONH U 7UDF H\ 0,; *HQH UDO 86$ 3%& &URVVVHFWLR QDO 1RWH1 QXP EHURISDUWLFLSD QWVLQFO XGH GL QWKHHI IHFWVL]H HVWLP DWH &2* FRJ QLWLRQ& %, FRJQLWLRQD QGEH KDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQ&$ FRJQLWLR QD QGDIIHFW0,; PL[WXUHR FRJQLWL RQEH KDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQD QGDIIHFW, & LQGLYLG XDOLVP FROOHFWLYLV P /72 ORQ JWHUP RULHQWDWLRQ 8 $ XQFH UWDLQW\DYRLGD QFH,5 L QGXO JHQFH U HVWUDLQW $7% DWWLWXGH WRZDUGEH KDYLRU% , EHKDYL RUDOL QWHQWLR Q3%& SH UFHLY HGEHK DYLRUDOFRQW UR O 8% XQYHULILDEOH EH KDYLRU9% YH ULILDEOH EH KDYL RU 1$ QRWD YDLODEOH
Motivational power of future time pers pective: Meta -analyses 7DEOH 2YHUYLHZDQG &KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIW KH6WXGLHVLQ WKH+ HDOWK'RP DL Q 6WXG\ 1 )73 FRQVWUXFW )73 IRF XV &RXQWU\ ,& /72 8$ ,5 2XWF RP H W\ SH $JH *HQGHU 6WXG\ GHVL JQ $GDP V 1HWWOH 0,; *HQH UDO 86$ 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO $GDP V :KLW H 0,; *HQH UDO 86$ 9%8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO $JQHZ /RYL QJ &%, *HQH UDO 86$ $7%%, 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO $SRVWROL GLV)L HXODLQH6LP RQLQ 5ROODQG &%, *HQH UDO )UD QFH 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO %HHQVWRFN$GDP V :KLWH 0,; *HQH UDO 8. 8% &URVV VHFWLRQDO %M|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
Chapter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
43 &RGLQJWKHVWXG\FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
$OO VWXGLHV ZHUH GRXEOH FRGHG E\ D WUDLQHG UHVHDUFK DVVLVWDQW DQG WKH ILUVW DXWKRU %DVHG RQ WKH UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV E\ /LSVH\ DQG :LOVRQ DQG &RRSHU ZH GHYHORSHGDGHWDLOHGFRGLQJPDQXDOVHH$SSHQGL[%:HDOVRFRGHGFHUWDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI HDFK VWXG\ VWXG\ GHVLJQ OLIH GRPDLQ RI WKH )73±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¶VNDSSD!
)73FRQVWUXFWW\SHV
:HFRGHGWKH)73VFDOHVDQGVXEVFDOHVEDVHGRQRXUGHYHORSHGFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOIRU JURXSLQJ WKH )73 FRQVWUXFW W\SHV )LJXUH WKDW UHOLHG RQ WKH UHSRUWLQJ RI DXWKRUV LQ WKH SULPDU\VWXGLHV$FFRUGLQJO\WKH)73FRQVWUXFWVZHUHDVVLJQHGWRRQHRIIRXUFRQVWUXFWW\SHV WKDW PHDVXUHG D VLQJOH RU PXOWLSOH FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH )73 FRQVWUXFW D FRJQLWLRQ E FRJQLWLRQDQGEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQFFRJQLWLRQDQGDIIHFWDQGGWKHPL[WXUHRIFRJQLWLRQ EHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQDQGDIIHFW7DEOHVXPPDUL]HVWKHGHVFULSWLRQRI)73FRQVWUXFWW\SHV IROORZHGE\LWHPH[DPSOHV
Chapter 2 7DEOH 44 )73&RQVWUXFW7\SH&RGLQJ )73F RQVWU XFW W\ SHV 'HVFUL SWLRQ ,WHP H[DP SOHV &RJQLWLRQ ,QFO XGH LWHP VDERXWD QLQ GLYL GXDO¶VL GHDVDQG H[SHFWDWLR QVDERXWWKHIXWXUH ³,WKL QNDERXWZKDWP \IXWX UHKDV LQVW RUH´³,LP ZKDWW RP RUURZZLO OEULQJIRUP H´ &RJQLWLRQDQGEHKD YLRUDOLQWH QWLRQ ,QFO XGH LWHP VDERXWD QLQ GLYL GXDO¶VI XWXUHJRDOVDQG ZD\VWR DFFRP SOLVKW KHVHJRD OVSOD QQL QJVH WWLQJDQG VHOI F RQWU RODV GHOD\RIJUDWLIL FDWLRQ ³: KHQ,ZDQWWRJHWV RP HWKLQJGRQH,P DNHVWHS VWHSSODQVDQGWKLQNDERXWKRZWRFRP SOHWH HDFKVWH ³,FRQVL GHUKRZWKL QJVP LJKWEHL QWKH IXWXUHDQGW LQIOXH QFHW KRVH WKLQJVZLWKP \GD\WRGD\ EHKDYL &RJQLWLRQDQGDIIHFW ,QFO XGH LWHP VWKDWIRFXV RQWKHDIIHFWL YHWR QHRIIXWXUH FRJQLWL RQVW KDWLVHP RWLRQVW KDWDUHDVV RFLDWHGZLWK IXW XUHJRDOVKRSH ZRUU\ IHD U ³,IW KLQJVGRQ¶ WJHWGR QHRQWLP H,GRQ¶W ZRUU\D LW´³:KH Q,WKLQNDERXW WKHI XWXUH,IHHOKDSS\´ 0L[WXUHRIF RJQLWLRQEH KDYL RUDOLQWHQWLRQDQGDIIHFW ,QFO XGH LWHP VWKDWFRP ELQHF RJQLWLRQDIIH FWDQG LQWHQWLRQ VZLWK UH JDUGWRWKHI XWXUH ³, OLNH WR WKLQN R I WK H ZD\ , ZLOO E H DE OH WR GHYHORS P\ S RVVLELOLWLHVFDSDFLWLHVWDOHQWV DIWHU V FKRRO´³ DPZLO OLQJWRVDFULILFHP\LPPHGLDWH KDS SLQHVVRU ZHOO EHLQJLQRUGHUWRDFKLH YHIXWXUHRXWF RPHV´
45 )73IRFXV :HFRGHGWKH)73PHDVXUHDV³JHQHUDO´LIWKHPHDVXUHGLGQRWVSHFLI\DFHUWDLQOLIH GRPDLQRU³VSHFLILF´LIWKH)73LWHPVUHIHUUHGWRDVSHFLILFOLIHGRPDLQHJVFKRROZRUN KHDOWK 6DPSOHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
*HQGHU ZDV FRGHG DV WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI PDOHV LQ WKH VDPSOH 7KH PHDQ DJH RI WKH VDPSOHZDVHQWHUHGIRUDJH,IDJHZDVPLVVLQJZHFDOFXODWHGWKHDJHDYHUDJHEDVHGRQWKH SURYLGHGJUDGHOHYHOLQWKHHGXFDWLRQOLIHGRPDLQRUDYHUDJHGWKHDJHJURXSV&XOWXUHZDV FRGHG EDVHG RQ +RIVWHGH HW DO¶V FXOWXUDO YDOXH GLPHQVLRQV LQGLYLGXDOLVPFROOHFWLYLVP ORQJWHUPVKRUWWHUP RULHQWDWLRQ XQFHUWDLQW\DYRLGDQFH DQG LQGXOJHQFHUHVWUDLQW 7KDW LV ZH DVVLJQHG WKH DSSURSULDWH FXOWXUDO YDOXH WR WKH LGHQWLILHG FRXQWU\RIHDFKVDPSOH)RUH[DPSOHZHFRGHG-DSDQDVIRULQGLYLGXDOLVPIRUORQJ WHUPRULHQWDWLRQIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DYRLGDQFHDQGIRULQGXOJHQFHUHVWUDLQW
6WXG\GHVLJQDQG\HDURISXEOLFDWLRQ
7KH VWXG\ GHVLJQ ZDV FRGHG DV FURVVVHFWLRQDO YHUVXV ORQJLWXGLQDO DQG ZH DOVR LQFOXGHGWKHSXEOLFDWLRQ\HDURIWKHUHSRUW
2XWFRPHW\SH
%DVHGRQWKH73%ZHGLVWLQJXLVKHGIRXURXWFRPHW\SHVDDWWLWXGHWRZDUGEHKDYLRU EEHKDYLRUDOLQWHQWLRQFSHUFHLYHGEHKDYLRUDOFRQWURODQGGEHKDYLRU:HGLGQRWFRGH IRU WKH VXEMHFWLYH QRUP EHFDXVH WKHUH ZHUH QR VWXGLHV FRQFHUQLQJ WKLV RXWFRPH W\SH 5HJDUGLQJWKHEHKDYLRURXWFRPHZHGLVWLQJXLVKHGEHWZHHQXQYHULILDEOH EHKDYLRU8%DQG YHULILDEOH EHKDYLRU 9% WKDW LV VHOIUHSRUWHG EHKDYLRU WKDW LV SRWHQWLDOO\ YHULILDEOH 6HH 7DEOHIRUH[DPSOHVRIRXWFRPHW\SHVSHUHDFKOLIHGRPDLQ
Chapter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
47 0HWDDQDO\WLFSURFHGXUHV
Effect size estimation
3HDUVRQ¶V U ZDV XVHG DV WKH HIIHFW VL]H LQGH[ ,W LV WKH UHFRPPHQGHG HIIHFW VL]H PHDVXUH 5RVHQWKDO 'L0DWWHRDQGDFRPPRQVWDWLVWLFUHSRUWHGE\WKHPDMRULW\RI WKH LQFOXGHG VWXGLHV 7KH FRPSXWDWLRQV ZHUH EDVHG RQ UHSRUWHG ]HURRUGHU FRUUHODWLRQV DQG VDPSOH VL]H ,Q FDVHV ZKHUH U ZDV QRW SURYLGHG ZH UHTXHVWHG WKDW WKH DXWKRUV VHQG XV WKH FRUUHODWLRQV RI LQWHUHVW²WKHVH UHTXHVWV ZHUH PRVWO\ IXOILOOHG ,Q D IHZ FDVHV ZH XVHG 6SHDUPDQ¶V UKR WKDW ZDV VXEVHTXHQWO\ WUDQVIRUPHG WR )LVKHU¶V ] %RUHQVWHLQ +HGJHV +LJJLQV 5RWKVWHLQ $ SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ LQGLFDWHG WKDW D KLJK )73 VFRUH ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KLJKHU RXWFRPHV LQ WKH HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN DQG KHDOWK OLIH GRPDLQV :KHQ QHFHVVDU\ZHUHYHUVHVFRUHGFRUUHODWLRQVVRWKDWWKHKLJKHUVFRUHUHSUHVHQWHGKLJKHUSRVLWLYH OHYHOVLQHGXFDWLRQDOZRUNDQGKHDOWKRXWFRPHV
Analysis strategy
)ROORZLQJ +HGJHV DQG 2ONLQ ZH SHUIRUPHG WKH DQDO\VHV RQ FRUUHODWLRQV WUDQVIRUPHGLQWR)LVKHU¶V]VFRUHVZKLFKZHUHWKHQFRQYHUWHGEDFNWRFRUUHODWLRQV%HFDXVH ZH DVVXPHG ERWK V\VWHPDWLF DQG UDQGRP YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HIIHFW VL]HV WKH REYLRXVFKRLFHZDVWKHUDQGRPHIIHFWPRGHO'XHWRSRZHULVVXHVKRZHYHUZHDOVRUHSRUWHG WKH IL[HGHIIHFW PRGHO 7KH UDQGRPHIIHFW PRGHO DOORZHG XV WR PDNH JHQHUDO LQIHUHQFHV² ZKLFKUHDFKHGEH\RQGWKHVWXGLHVLQFOXGHGLQWKHVHPHWDDQDO\VHV²DQGWRWDNHLQWRDFFRXQW ERWKWKHZLWKLQDQGEHWZHHQVWXG\HUURUV%RUHQVWHLQHWDOZKHUHDVWKHIL[HGHIIHFW PRGHO DOORZHG D PRUH SRZHUIXO WHVW WR GHWHFW VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV %HFDXVH UDQGRPHIIHFW PRGHOV DUH W\SLFDOO\ GHHPHG PRUH FRQVHUYDWLYH WKH\ FDQ UHVXOW LQ W\SH ,, HUURUV²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