Interdisciplinary Project

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A self-sufficient food supply:

the case of Hawaii

Marin Schadee | 11294612 Wibe Schoenmaker | 11891742 Rokus van Dijke | 11831014 Josephine van der Vlugt | 11325852

J. V. Rothuizen | Supervisor

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Abstract

The state of Hawaii currently imports 90 percentage of their consumed food, instead of making use of the full agricultural potential. This makes Hawaii dependent on other countries and chances in global markets which results in a low food security. In this research the possibility of a self-sufficient food system in Hawaii is analysed, using a Food System Approach (FSA) and scenario analysis. The scenario analysis depicted four potential future prospects: Holistic

Growth, Ecomodernism, Global Dependence and Decreasing Normal. The climate of Hawaii

is favourable for food production, but its economy is heavily dependant on tourism. Tourism and population are expected to grow and will only pressure the food supply even further. In order to reduce the dependence on import and push towards a self-sufficient food supply we recommend actively stimulating agricultural studies, subsidies costs of living (e.g. housing, land) in rural areas and a shift in types of crops. In doing so, the most desirable scenario according to us, Ecomodernism, will be realized.

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Introduction

The state Hawaii is one of the most remote places on earth, located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, more than 3000 kilometers away from the mainland. It consists of 137 individual volcanic islands created by the north-west movement of the tectonic plate above the Hawaii

Hotspot (Ribe & Christensen, 1999). The climate on Hawaii is a typical tropical climate with

tempered temperatures and humidity due to eastern trade winds. These circumstances create favourable surroundings for housing, agriculture and tourism. Volcanic soils tend to be more fertile than regular clay or sandy soils (Shoji & Takahashi, 2002); ideal for agriculture and a high biodiversity (Shoji & Takahashi, 2002). However, the former seems to be misused as Hawaii imports 90 percent of its food and only has a sufficient supply that only lasts seven days (Loke & Leung, 2013) which is reason for concern. Since Hawaii is part of the United States and the concept of food security is ranked on a national level, Hawaii is ranked third (FSI, 2020) and the contradicts the current situation. In reality however, Hawaii imports over 90% of its food and exports 26% of its agricultural yield (Loke & Leung, 2013). Clapp (2017) noted that since the food crisis in 2007 and 2008 the interest in food self-sufficiency has increased; countries seek to be more independent from the global food market prices, which tend to increase due to political disputes, climate change and water availability (Clapp, 2017; Tadasse et al., 2016). However, a self-sufficient food system is not always beneficial. Outsourcing by means of globalisation has led to an efficient and profitable global food supply system. In her article, Clapp (2017) describes this tension, between political will [of self-sufficiency] in opposition to strictly economic reasoning where the lowest price of a commodity is the imperative.

The geographical positioning of Hawaii however, makes it particularly vulnerable to external (global) changes and therefore is advised to seek a self-sufficient system. In a research on the food supply on the Galapagos islands (Sampedro et al., 2018) a Food System Approach (from here on abbreviated as FSA) was created. This FSA incorporates both stakeholders, state actors and variables that influence the food supply. These influences come from differing disciplines and therefore require an interdisciplinary approach. Moreover, the

system thinking behind such a FSA is a great tool to combine different disciplines and evaluate

points of conflict (Hammond & Dubé, 2012). The different trends in Hawaii and stakeholders make for a similar and complex scenario where an interdisciplinary approach is necessary to assess the possibility to apply a self-sufficient food supply in the state of Hawaii. The relevant disciplines in this case consist of the areas of earth sciences, political sciences, social sciences & geography and systems thinking. The inclusion of these disciplines for a sustainable self-sufficient food supply has never been done before for the state of Hawaii and will produce insights on the status quo and future pathways for Hawaii.

This paper describes the theories and concepts within the aforementioned disciplines that are most important for self-sufficiency in the state of Hawaii in the theoretical framework. Additionally, the FSA by Sampedro et al. (2018) will be combined with these concepts and theories which contributes to the method of research, described later on. The results will be divided into three parts, (1) an overview of the status quo, (2) a description of relevant trends and (3) future scenarios for Hawaii. A clear overview of the food supply in Hawaii which aids in the research towards change is the result. Our analysis on the FSA of Hawaii and found results on the sub-questions will be combined in the discussion in which we will introduce points of intervention and recommendations on how a more sustainable, self-sufficient food

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system can be achieved. In doing so, an answer to the following main research question will be constituted:

Using a Food System Approach (FSA), what interventions are required to initiate a (sustainable) self-sufficient food supply?

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Theoretical Framework

The limits to growth model is a red line through every scholar studying in sustainability (Meadows et al., 1972). The model comprises a notion of a finite system, in this case our planet earth. Giving insights to the limits of the earth system, and identifying the behaviour of the dominant elements influencing the system. In this large world system, smaller systems exist: islands. Remote islands had, finite characteristics on a micro scale. With the rise of globalisation the remoteness became relative, yet its physical boundaries remain absolute. According to Norder et al. (2017) islands have clearly defined physical boundaries, finite resources and a relative short human history which makes it a more suitable to study compared to the earth-model. A couple of years ago Meadows (2008) published a book offering crucial insights in problem solving on different scales. The above mentioned micro-scalic characteristics of an island logically differ in nature.

One theory which is inherently related to self-sufficiency is food security (Porter et al., 2017). Food security is measured by four pillars: food (1) -availability, (2) -access, (3)

utilization and (4) stability (FAO, 2006). By contemplating on the different climates on the

cases investigated, one could explain certain differences in terms of food security. Whilst food security is a concept which incorporates a vast amount of variables, merely investigating climatory consequences seemed both insufficient and not-interdisciplinary. Climates are, however, a relevant theme [to food]. According to the same organization, climate change threatens humanities’ capability to ensure food security globally (FAO, 2014). Over the past few decades, Hawaii build up a high dependence on the rest of the world in terms of food supply (90% is imported (Gupta & Jablonski, 2016)). This process severely increased the vulnerability to (un)intentional external system changes.

Self-sufficiency is gaining more and more attention globally. Both the external dependence, volatile food prices and increasing concern regarding humanities’ role in climate change emphasize self-sufficiency. The concept is described by Clapp (2017) as a state in which a country is producing sufficient food to cover its own needs. On a global scale, the concept gained a lot critique. Prioritizing political independence over economic efficiencies would be a disaster according to the Financial Times (2009). Comparative advantages simply exist and should therefore be exploited, is the dominant (economic) discourse. The global economic system creates a global competition leading to high degrees of efficiency by means of supply and demand and comparative advantages (Ricardo, 1817).

Self-sufficiency however, can be attained in many different ways. Balance in production and consumption in terms of volume, caloric intake or monetary value are examples put forward by Clapp (2017). Whether a country is reliant on other countries or is entirely self-sufficient is not simply a result of natural constraints or opportunities, it is the result of many interlinked socio-economical and political factors as well. Clapp (2017) furthermore argues a more nuanced approach is necessary to overcome the negative consequences of either of the two binary options. Local opportunities and adversaries and global power and -trade relations, should be taken into account.

According to Van Berkum (Van Berkum et al., 2018) a food systems approach describes all the different elements and the relationships between them. It is an interdisciplinary approach since the food system touches upon all the activities in production, distribution and utilization and the outcomes in terms of food security, socio-economic implications and environmental consequences (FAO, 2006). In order to get an adequate overview of such a system, system thinking is a useful tool. Systems thinking, in our case used

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on food systems, as explained by Meadows (2008) and Hammond & Dubé (2012) can help explain the behaviour of the system itself through its interconnected elements (or subsystems), their feedback loops and delays. The chemist is educated in the metaphorical practice of systems thinking, molecular thinking, that is of good use for employing this overarching method (Larson, 2011). The systems approach is said to be essential to understand the complexity of food systems and to bridge specific disciplinary aspects (Hammond & Dubé, 2012). The holistic understanding of the system can give useful insights in the changes specific trends and interventions will result in, while also incorporating their less evident feedback in the scenarios.

Using system thinking and creating a FSA is a useful tool in the a scenario analysis. By creating a FSA you are familiar with the system and are aware of the impact of changes in input and resulting outputs. This aids in the creation of possible future situations. In Scenario analysis the two most prevalent insecurities are put forward as axes from which four possible scenarios arise. This can be done by both inductive and deductive reasoning. The former comprises research beforehand, out of which narratives and trends will come to the light. A framework will be created which fits the insights by literature and societal trends. Whereas in deductive reasoning the structure is created first which creates a framework for scenario’s. The structure forms the scenario-logic. Trends and developments will subsequently be filled in. By both manners, four possible future scenarios are put forward. One is not able to pick one scenario, scenarios just happen (Nekkers, 2006). By analyzing the possible scenarios, appropriate strategies can be put forward.

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Methods

The goal of this study is to analyse, identify and provide leverage points in promoting, a self-sufficient food supply in the state of Hawaii. In order to answer the main research question three sub-questions have been constructed; these questions divide the main research question into the required objectives. This includes the status quo, a trend analysis and future

analysis based on the first two concepts:

- What is the status quo of the food system in Hawaii?

- What are the current trends concerning the food system in Hawaii?

- What are the possible self-sufficiency-scenarios in Hawaii given the trends?

In this paragraph the proposed methods and data collections will be explained. The primary methods that are used in this research to help answer the (sub) questions are: FSA & systems thinking, trend analysis and scenario analysis using secondary data (Walliman, 2017) Unfortunately, collecting data locally is currently not possible within the extends of our research capabilities. Fortunately, Hawaii and the corresponding food supply have been investigated extensively in the last couple of years and supplies us with secondary data. Collecting data locally or analysing quantitative data is therefore mitigated. The secondary data is gathered through google scholar, governmental websites and news articles. A lot of literature was derived and used from the Sampedro et al. (2018) study. Furthermore, key concepts regarding the subject from the different disciplines were used for finding different relevant literature. The appendix contains a data management table created during preliminary research. The information provided in this paper is a combination of assessing and processing existing literature and applying a multidisciplinary approach to the case. The analytical approach used is ‘grounded theory’, meaning that information is gathered surrounding one particular subject, i.e. self-sufficiency. A theory is set up and adjusted when literature shows contradictory information (Buchanan & Bryman, 2009). Using academic literature will provide reliability and accountability needed to ensure a good research paper.

Food systems approach (FSA) and systems thinking

FSA considers social, economic and environmental activities and changes with their corresponding feedbacks and therefore gives a complete as possible illustration of the complex system. The FSA will therefore be used to improve the system, point out the vulnerabilities and determine efficient interventions (Van Berkum et al., 2018).

Status quo of Hawaii’s food system

To be able to research the possibilities of a more self-sufficient food system on Hawaii, the first thing that will be made clear is the current state of affairs. The fundamental structure of Hawaii’s food system will be derived from a similar case study of the Galapagos Islands food system that was analyzed through system dynamics (Sampedro et al., 2018). The Galapagos system is a suitable example for Hawaii due to the many similarities: remote archipelago, low agricultural production/high food import, growing population, tourism focused. The Galapagos model will be used and in some cases altered so it will fit the purpose of this research in the context of Hawaii. There will be a focus on its agricultural production, import and food demand, later transformed in potential scenarios. Also, in the model of Sampedro et al. (2018) actual

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systems dynamics were used with specific numbers, formulas and calculations, however in this research only systems thinking, an holistic approach, is done and future research is able to conduct a quantifying research on the FSA of Hawaii. All interconnected elements, feedback loops and delays are examined giving useful insights and understanding of the system as a whole and its behaviour. The key parts that will be used in this study are derived from the Sampedro et al. (2018) study: tourism, politics, population, food demand, food supply, food import, food production, farming land.

Trend analysis

Multiple trends will be identified through all disciplines involved. These trends can be used both prospective and retrospective. In this paper the focus will solely be on the former whilst the imperative is a particular future prospect, not historical analysis. In the trend analysis all trends are set out individually to create a clear overview of the pressures on the current food system. However, these trends interlink on several areas. Therefore, in the integrative analysis all relations will be explained.

Scenario analysis

The third sub question concerning the possible scenarios of Hawaii and its food system will be answered using the adapted system of Sampedro et al. (2018) and the scenario method from Nekkers (2012). The first steps consist of knowing what should be achieved with the scenarios, so a question will be devised, which in this case is our third sub question. The trends described above will be analyzed unveiling the driving forces and (un)certainties. The trends’ directions and (in)direct consequences will be examined with the help of the adapted system. The most powerful and prevailing driving forces with the greatest (un)certainties will be used as axes, with their extremes on both sides. These axes will create four contrasting possible scenarios, based on the most prevailing driving forces concerning Hawaii’s food supply and its possible self-sufficiency. In the scenarios the guidelines from FAO (2018) will be used as well in creating a more sustainable food system.

Points of intervention

The most self-sufficient scenario created by the scenario analysis will be used to interpolate and examine the changes happening in the Hawaii food system. The trends, the self-sufficient scenario and the interpolated system (for that scenario) give knowledge in where or how there must be intervened in the food system to achieve the most self-sufficiency.

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Results

Status quo

In this paragraph the first sub question of this study will be answered which is: What is the

status quo of the food system in Hawaii? The status quo will take into account different aspects

from the social, political, earth and climate sciences concerning the food system. In an interdisciplinary fashion these elements will be described and combined, ultimately adapting the model by Sampedro et al. (2018), derived from a similar case study on the Galapagos islands. All parts of the food system created by Sampedro et al. (2018) will be discussed because of their relevance for the Hawaii case. The adjusted food system of the Galapagos islands for Hawaii can be seen in Graph 2. It contains an agricultural production stock influenced by agricultural labor, productivity, farming land, natural disasters and global food prices variables. The food supply stock is influenced by the consumption and agricultural production and food import stocks. The population and tourism variables influence on their part the consumption variable. The choices for these variables and stocks are explained below.

The first logical step in fitting an existing food system is that it contains an agricultural production subsystem (including labor, productivity and farming land) and food supply, consumption and population variables, as in the FSA by Sampedro et al. (2018). As said before Hawaii’s food system is far from being self-sufficient, with the vast amount of its consumed food being imported. Hence, a food import variable is of great importance in this model. The high import can be accounted for due to a number of reasons. First of all, Hawaii’s biggest economic driver is the tourism industry, accounting for 21 percent of the jobs on the archipelago (Mzezewa, 2020). A big tourism industry attracts the local population towards tourism, away from agriculture, because there is more money to be earned there (Page et al., 2007; Sampedro et al., 2018). Another factor of tourism influencing the food system is from the simple fact that more people require more food. With over 10 million visitors each year, compared to the population of 1.4 million, tourism puts significant pressure on the food system (Mzezewa, 2020). Furthermore Saito (2013) shows that tourism accounts for a large part of food waste on the island, which again is putting more pressure on the food system. The tourism sector on remote Hawaii has developed so extensively due to the increasing connectivity to the rest of the world of the archipelago as a result of globalisation.

Tourism is not the only element of the food system that is influenced by globalisation. Globalisation has increased due to fast innovations and technologies, which has lead to a shift in the food production on a spatial level (Feagan, 2007). When manufacturing a good, or producing food, is restricted by laws or costs that are too high, production is moved elsewhere because transporting products has become relatively cheap and quick. (Lanza et al., 2019). Due to the effects of globalisation, food has transformed from the ‘normal’ being local, to the ‘normal’ being global. Food production now takes place on a global scale and is consequently being transported all over the world (Feagan, 2007). The problem that occurs is that local farmers are not capable of competing against the prices of the global market and are forced to grow a limited amount of crops which are most profitable. This results in farmers not being able to help improve the islands self-sufficiency and local food production, even if wanted. Farmers trapped in this repressive systems did gain political attention as well. The governor

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spoke of Hawaii’s food system as vulnerable to (un)intentional external system changes that underline the lack of resilience.

“Agriculture is critical to self-sufficiency and food security. Instead of continuing to import 90%

of our food, we need to take steps to produce more food locally. The Administration is committed to making farming and local food production a thriving industry.” (Ige, N.D)

This progressive vision shows a consensus for the improvement of the archipelagos self-sufficiency regarding food. Though a limiting factor to the governor’s mission to a more self-sufficient food system are several lock-in mechanisms such as the economically important tourist sector and the globalisation effects on agriculture as spoken of above. The government has effect on every variable of the system as a result of its overarching influence. So a government variable is knowingly not added to the model since it would complicate the readability, that taken into account it affects everything. Figures still show that Hawaiian farmers exported 26% of the food produced (Hollier, 2014). Hawaii still practices the majority of their agriculture in monoculture, some improvements were made and old sugar and pineapple plantations have changed crops to increase diversity and income, but still not in the

most sustainable way (Hawaii agricultural, 2016).

The amount of farming land and productivity are directly linked to the total production of the FSA. In an earth sciences perspective of these terms, one speaks of the agricultural potential. In order to assess this potential - of Hawaii -, one will have to take four biophysical aspects into account: surface (air) temperature, solar radiation, soil classification and water availability (agrometeorology, n.d.; Feddes, 1971; Blaney & Criddle, 1962). The reason to focus on these lies on the core requirements for crops. Other factors that might influence how arable an area is - examples are slope, erosion, invasive species - have been left out under the notion that these can altered, prevented or controlled by human influences and actions, whereas the mentioned key factors only slightly, short term or not at all (agrometeorology, n.d.; Feddes, 1971; Blaney & Criddle, 1962). Unfortunately, due to the complex nature of solar radiation and insignificant changes at lower altitudes in Hawaii (Longman et al., 2014) this will

not be reported on in this research.

Intense monoculture and resource exploitation still result in soil degradation (Rockström et al., 2009; Shoji & Takahashi, 2002). The archipelago has excellent soil properties, climate conditions and water availability for agriculture, thus soil degradation damages its agricultural potential. A steady surface temperature throughout the year is favorable for crops, as shown in Graph 1. The temperature is however not equally spread over the entire island and the map in Image 1 shows warmer temperatures on the edges of the island, with cooler temperatures nearing the center, due to the elevation of the islands. Besides favorable temperatures, edible crops require plenty of water and with a monthly precipitation of 600 millimeters and peaks of 1400 millimeters in the rain season, this would oppose no problem, depending on the type of crop. However, the spatial distribution, like temperature, is unequal, as shown in Image 2. Hawaii has aquifers out of which they extract their freshwater, which are rain fed, but this unequal distribution means the recharge of aquifers is up to 50% slower on the west side of the islands in the dry season, which hardens equal distribution and storage (Johnson et al., 2018). Moreover, current use of water already sets a decline in the total water storage (Kobayashi, 2014): it is expected that Hawaii will run

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its volcanic origin are very fertile (Shoji & Takahashi, 2002). Because it contains high quantities of minerals, it has the ability to hold large amounts of plant-available water and accumulation of carbon and nitrogen. The latter being important components for soil organic carbon, the main source of nitrogen for plants (Shoji & Takahashi, 2002). Currently, Hawaii’s produces a total of 151,700 megatonnes of food yearly on 370,000 hectares of active agricultural land, this includes cash crops, like sugarcane and pineapple, that are grown for exportation. Around 112,000 megatonnes or 74% of this locally produced food is used for local consumption for the 1,4 million inhabitants (Loke & Leung, 2013). This means that a little more than 10% of the 966,600 megatonnes of consumed food in Hawaii is produced locally.

Graph 1. Average temperature per month in Hawaii; gathered 1981 until 2010 (Honolulu Temperatures, n.d.).

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Image 2. Mean Annual Rainfall State of Hawai’i (Giambelluca et al., 2014).

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Trends

The individual trends that impact the food system in Hawaii are on some grounds interrelated yet will be explained individually at first, in order to create a clear overview. The identified trends are: population, politics, tourism and climate change.

Population trend

Sampedro et al. (2018) found that the food system is impacted by the size of the population: increase means more demand. The global population is growing at a pace of one percent a year (Ezeh et al., 2012). The state of Hawaii sees similar growth rates over the past 40 years, fluctuating between 0.8 and 1.2 percent, and at present has 1.4 million residents (DBEDT, 2018). DBEDT (2018) estimates the population growth will decrease to 0.3 percent (or 5.590 people per year) at the end of 2050 and does not foresee a halt to or even decline in total residents. Therefore, as long as demand increases, more food is to be produced in order to meet the needs of Hawaii’s residents.

Political trend

This trend is important for policymakers and other political figures have the power to decide certain thing about the food system. In the US there is a democratic system with two main political parties; Democratic and Republican. Research done by Sheldon & Nichols (2009) showed that Republicans have a higher extrinsic value (money, popularity, image) and Democrats have a higher intrinsic value (intimacy, helping, growth). Currently, the leading political party on Hawaii is Democratic and is expected to be re-elected in 2020 (Who wins 2020, 2020). Democrats are known for their position advocating the environment and sustainability (Walker, 2017). However, Hawaii relies on preemption meaning that the environmental law is handled by state authorities rather than local governments. Consequently, local authorities do not have the power to govern local issues. Instead, agricultural firms bypass the laws by shifting emphasis from environmental issues to technical advantages. In this way, laws focussed on innovative techniques are more easily accepted by these state authorities, leaving environmental laws in second place. These agricultural firms gain power and control import and export (Ipsen, 2020).

Tourism trend

The tourism trend is of greater importance in Hawaii than it is in the United States overall, for its large percentage of tourists visiting each year. In order to get a clear view on what the pressure of tourism is on the food system, multiple factors within this pressure are identified. Firstly, tourists cause a great amount of food waste (Saito, 2013). If food would be used efficiently and optimally, this could release pressures on the current food system of Hawaii. Secondly, for tourists are with many, they have influence on the type of food that is sold. Due to the global culture that they bring to the island, local food falls away and global food takes over (Mak et al., 2012). Food production is negatively influenced and global food is stimulated, which causes an increase in importation. The third factor within the tourism pressure on the food system is that food security and tourism are closely related yet not always recognized. Hawaii has build up a tourism-dependent economy which gives a negative impact on the food security. Tourism is a highly fluctable factor and dependency on this comes with many

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uncertainties, therefore this should be changed by policy makers (Ambelu et al., 2018). Porter et al. (2017) mentioned four pillars of food security, as stated before. The fourth pillar, stability is of influence here; due to the economic dependency on tourism, food security becomes very unstable. At last, Chi (2016) found a relation between high employment rates in the United States and an increasing demand in tourism in Hawaii. This means that when employment rates go up, travel costs go down and people go on vacation more often. Thus, when an economic crisis arises and employment rates fall, tourist demands in Hawaii go down. Therefore, according to Chi (2016), policymakers should make business plans including short- and long term strategies regarding these uncertain developments.

Climate change trend

The steady temperature cycle of Hawaii is subject to change: global temperatures are rising due to the greenhouse gas emissions (Shukla et al., 2019). The global temperatures have increased 0.3 - 0.6 °C in the last century and 0.2 - 0.3 °C for the period from 1970 to 2011 and Hawaii has recorded similar temperature changes over the last century (Diaz et al., 2011). Wang et al. (2018) has modeled that the increase will only persevere and evidently lead to an increase of 2 - 2.5 °C on the lower altitudes and exceeding 3.5 °C for the higher altitudes by the end of the century. The increase in temperature will not only negatively affect the plant’s activity by itself but also creates implications on precipitation patterns. Models predict an overall drying in Hawaii by shortening of the monsoon and overall decrease in precipitation (Giambelluca et al., 2014). Moreover, the temperature increase will enhance the evaporation of surface water and respiration of plants thus increasing demand (Diaz, 2011). Exact numbers are unavailable due to the sheer complexity of the weather system, but the general consensus is clear: the availability of water is decreasing while demand increases due to above mentioned trends [tourism and population] (Johnson et al., 2018; Kobayashi, 2014).

Integrative analysis

The relations between the trends are as follows. A growing population means that more mouths will need to be fed. Moreover, every person carries their own impact on the environment, their own ecological footprint (Mancini et al., 2017). Consequently, a large population increases climate change and temperatures worldwide which in their turn have negative effects on water availability and agricultural production (Zeng et al., 2008). The trend on tourism is not influenced by the other identified trends yet it does impact climate change. Hawaii exists of multiple islands located over 3000 kilometres away from the United States’ mainland. As a result, tourists come, in most cases, by plane (Bieger & Wittmer, 2006). Moreover, 60% of the total energy use of the state of Hawaii is consumed by tourists (Lin, 2010). Hence, tourists have a great share in impacting climate change and therefore the food system. The political trend is also not influenced by other trends yet have the potential of influencing them. Politics do have a say in the subject of tourism, however, as the trend explains, agricultural firms on the islands have more power on the agricultural production. Given the above, all trends are interlinked but made more clear when stated individually.

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Scenario Analysis

In this paper, the economic principle of supply and demand has been chosen as axes. This is done because of its inherent insecure nature (both supply and demand fluctuate and are susceptible to exogenous phenomena) and its relevance and applicability to a system that functions by this same economic principle. The horizontal axe, Food Demand, has two extremes compared to status quo, low and high demand. The former comprises a severe decrease in demand and the latter vice versa. The corresponding trends to this axis are population- and tourism growth or decline. The vertical axis is Food Supply, this entails local food supply in this case. A high supply would mean a drastic increase in local food supply which logically decreases import and therefore dependence. It should be noted however, that if the amount of people on Hawaii increases proportionally no changes in import rates will be made. A low supply on the contrary, entails a decrease of local food production.

The scenarios depicted in Graph 3, are constituted by combining the status quo and the trends of the case of Hawaii. The former provided a complete overview of different elements and corresponding connections in the food system of Hawaii. An alteration in one variable logically influences the linked elements. The latter provided different trends which essentially can be divided into the two axes of the scenario. Tourism and population influencing the extent to which food is demanded and climate change affecting, however uncertain, agricultural supply. The political trend can fluctuate and is determined by the voters. As mentioned, the democratic party has brought forward the governor resulting in more progressive policies. These trends however, as is described in the last section on trends, should not be interpreted as exclusive causes and exclusive effects. By applying the interdisciplinary approach, multiple feedback loops and/or interlinkages came to light. The most prominent example being the tourist sector increasing food demand on Hawaii in the first place, not spoken of their particular diet, whilst their existence comprises a thorough negative impact on climate change and consequently the agricultural sector since all emit greenhouse gasses by flying to Hawaii. Moreover, tourists’ housing increases land prices stressing existing farmers’ agricultural land on Hawaii. This is of major importance when constituting scenarios and will be taken into account in the following section.

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The scenarios

Graph 3. Hawaii’s scenarios following the axes. Holistic growth

The first scenario, titled Holistic Growth, entails a (1) high local food supply and (2) low demand. According to the system in Graph 3, this [1] can be achieved by a combination of the following: (a) agricultural land increases, due to lower prices of land (e.g. adequate subsidies for farmers (Elinder (2005) stresses the importance of distribution) or less tourists (Garza & Ovalle, 2019); (b) productivity increases, by technological innovations (e.g. aquaponics (König, 2018), drip irrigation (Taylor & Zilberman (2017) and/or indigenous agricultural

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implications for the labour force. Increased productivity however, could neutralize this effect. Whilst a decrease in population does not seem plausible (according to prospects elaborated on in the trends section), tourism decline could be instigated by direct policies (e.g. tourist taxes) or exogenous phenomena such as ecological and/ or economic crises which can be either foreseen or unforeseen. The COVID-19 pandemic present at this moment can be

interpreted as a prime example infesting status quo.

Ecomodernism

The second scenario, titled Ecomodernism, entails a (1) high local food supply and (2) high demand. Following the system in Graph 3, this [1] can be achieved by either a combination of the following: (a) agricultural land increases, due to lower prices of land (e.g. adequate subsidies for farmers (Elinder (2005) stresses the importance of distribution) or less tourists (Garza & Ovalle, 2019); (b) productivity increases, by technological innovations (e.g. aquaponics (König, 2018) drip irrigation (Taylor & Zilberman (2017) and/or indigenous agricultural methods (Dible, 2019)); and/or (c) the labour forces increase, due to the increased amount of people on the island, specific education programs (Meek & Tarlua, 2016) and/or commending work in agriculture (e.g. schoolfarms or increasing salary).

The other axis [2] high demand, contains an overall increase in consumption by either an increase in (a) population (DBEDT, 2018), (b) tourism (Moore, 2019) or both. An increase in population puts pressure on the food supply, but could be negated by the fact of extra available labour in the agricultural industry. However, an increase in tourism, besides pressuring the food supply, also requires labour in both sectors [agricultural and tourist] in order to sustain the growth. Additionally, the tourist sector tends to have better wages (Torres, 2003) thus attracts away more ‘available’ labour from the agricultural sector as well as occupying arable land. Fortunately, tourism does support the economy of Hawaii and brings money to the table. These two trends seem to contradict one and other and require intervention.

Global dependence

The third scenario, Global Dependence, entails a (1) low local food supply and (2) high demand. According to the system in Graph 3, this [1] can be achieved by either a combination of the following: (a) agricultural land decreases , due to higher prices of land by pressures of housing (e.g. more tourists (Moore, 2019) or higher population (DBEDT, 2018)) or climate change (e.g. drainage or erosion by heavy rainfall (Kaur et al., 2018)); (b) productivity decreases, due to less available agricultural land (effect could be neutralized by increased productivity by technological innovations (Traore et al., 2017)); or (c) the labour forces decreases (e.g. bad working circumstances and/or low wages compared to other sectors (Torres, 2003)).

The other axis [2] high demand, contains an overall increase in consumption by either an increase in (a) population, (b) tourism or both. An increase in population puts pressure on the food supply, but could be negated by the extra available labour and support of the economy. The increase in tourism pressures the food system but tends to have better wages thus supporting the locals. The increased income from tourism helps cover the expenses on food import.

Decreasing normal

The fourth scenario, Decreasing Normal, entails a (1) low local food supply and (2) low demand. According to the system in Graph 3, this [1] can be achieved by either a combination

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of the following: (a) agricultural land decreases, due to climate change (e.g. drainage or erosion by heavy rainfall (Kaur et al., 2018)); (b) productivity decreases, due to less available agricultural land (effect could be neutralized by increased productivity by technological innovations); or (c) the labour forces decreases (e.g. bad working circumstances and/or low wages compared to other sectors (Torres, 2003)).

The other axis, [2] low demand, contains an overall decrease in consumption by either a decrease in (a) population or (b) tourism. A decrease in either one of these would have implications for the labour force. Increased productivity however, could neutralize this effect. Whilst a decrease in population does not seem plausible (according to prospects elaborated on in the trends section), tourism decline could be instigated by direct policies (e.g. tourist taxes) or exogenous phenomena such as crises.

In the following section the strategies for consciously steering the system into one particular direction will be put forward. Points of interventions and policy recommendations will be constituted.

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Discussion and Conclusion

It has become clear that Hawaii is largely dependent on tourism for its economy and only produces 10% of the consumed food for it own inhabitants, the other 90% is imported. Governmental organisations and researchers have been trying to promote local farming in order to increase its self-sufficiency, but so far without significant results. The tourism industry presently offers better wages than agriculture and available labour tends to move to the cities for this reason. Arable land is used for the growing tourism industry and only counteracts towards sufficiency. Moreover, other trends in the FSA of Hawaii are not supporting self-sufficiency either. The population is still growing, only putting more pressure on the food supply, while the governments seem to have a better interest in technological advancement than the environment. These trends are noticeable around the whole world and climate change is expected to decrease the agricultural potential of Hawaii. The status quo and trends of the FSA of Hawaii all seem to counteract the growth towards self- sufficiency and are promoting import and if not acted upon will result in a fully dependent state that loses its own character (Mak et al., 2012).

The Hawaii FSA and the scenario analysis clearly shows how connected every part of the system is, how an increase is established and how this also affects the other end of the system. However, such system will always be one that contains compromises and is not an exact replica of that of the real world. Its basis on peer reviewed literature however, does ensure accuracy and reliability. For the purpose of this research (finding points of intervention) it is well suited. Also, using an interdisciplinary approach, clear points of intervention were shown. This was especially needed here, for a food system is very interdisciplinary; different challenges arose from multiple perspectives. Due to this approach these challenges were identified, processed in the scenario analysis and recommendations can now be given.

This research is done using secondary data, academic literature as well as databanks and documents derived from the internet. The gathering of this research certainly has its advantages for most data is available online. However, numbers are always hard to get exactly right as one is not able to count everything and sometimes statistical samples from the total population have to do. This does bring some error to the table and depending on where the samples are from (either real life counting or data analysis) they could differ significantly. Several news articles (e.g. Hollier, 2014) for example stated higher percentages of import and export (most likely for its dramatic effect) than other articles or research. Moreover, models such as that of climate change has been created multiple times, each with different methods. In order to battle these insecurities we have tried to source our data from as few scientific articles (for their peer reviewed character) as possible or governmental website recognizable by their .gov url.

The purpose of the scenario analysis is described in the conceptual framework and the method section and is set out accordingly. Although a low food demand would make steps towards self-sufficiency easier, it is unlikely regarding the population and tourism predictions for these trends will only increase. Therefore, depicting a scenario on the right of the vertical axis is realistic: a high food demand. The preferable scenario then, where both independency and profits can come to its full potential, is Ecomodernism. Here, a self-sufficient food system is achieved through optimizing agricultural production and decreasing the dependency on other countries, therefore increasing food security. Currently, the Local Food Supply, written on the Y-axis, is presently absent and tends towards the lower right corner Global

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Dependence. However, this scenario has a low food security as well as a tourist-dependent

economy. A large percentage of food is imported and only a small amount is locally produced. Moreover, pressures like tourism and a growing population stimulate this scenario.

The concept of a self-sufficient food system is attained by the provision of local food and is achieved by implementing policies such as export bans, tariffs and subsidies. Classical economists rebuke any government interference and view these policies as inefficient and market distorting. This neoliberal approach was articulated and ratified by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The discussion about food entails arguments regarding the commodification of food. On one hand people argue food is a basic necessity in life stressing the influence of the economic global market whilst others amplify the advantages of it being a tradable commodity. Both sides stress the dangers of the other thoroughly by strong rhetorical statements making it a polarised debate. Clapp (2017) pleads for a more nuanced understanding since arguments that both sides address, are not that black and white. Most countries fall somewhere between open borders (complete reliance on import) or closed borders (domestic food production) making the debate of extremes shortsighted. In Hawaii, import rates are relatively high whilst state-funded initiatives are increasing in occurrence as well. Each country should, in coherence with their circumstances, judge what objectives fits best and what policy is needed.

Hawaii’s political sphere has a great role in structuring the system because of its power relations to different actors in the system. Companies are primarily fixed on generating profit whilst the government exists to secure the wellbeing of her citizens. In Hawaii this role has been fulfilled by the progressive governor David Ige whom has initiated many projects in favor of stimulating farmers, educating people, raising awareness or shifting the diet. It should be noted however that the state of Hawaii is part of a greater federal system with certain priorities and is obliged to work within the legal framework of for example trade (regulations favoring own products are not in line with the principles of the WTO). Consumers therefore remain the most valuable variables in altering the food system since they are the ones who make the choices in the supermarkets.

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Recommendations

The main research question ‘Using a Food System Approach (FSA), what interventions are

required to initiate a (sustainable) self-sufficient food supply?’ involves recommendations for

the state of Hawaii. Therefore, multiple interventions are suggested to steer the current situation in Hawaii towards a more self-sufficient one, the scenario of Ecomodernism. The first two suggestions regard the tourism trend. Ambelu et al. (2019) emphasize the importance of an independent economy and state that Hawaii’s economy is tourism dependent. Seen the current crisis concerning the Coronavirus, less tourists are visiting Hawaii. Moreover, employment rates in the whole of the United States are falling. Thus, as research done by Chi (2016) showed, people will not be able to afford travelling long distances solely as a vacation, resulting in a decrease in tourism. These will have the necessary consequences on the economy of Hawaii. In order to avoid dependency on tourists, policymakers should make business plans including short- and long term strategies regarding these uncertain

developments (Chi, 2016).

Recent news articles have been investigating the possibilities of applying agricultural methods from indigenous people (Dible, 2019). In his article, Dible (2019) states that indigenous people (or otherwise stated as the ‘pre-contact’ era, ending in 1779 AD) were able to produce over 1 million tons of food on 250.000 acres of land which is roughly today's current consumption. In comparison, presently Hawaii uses 370.000 acres of land to produce 152.000 tons of food: ten times less efficient. Dible (2019) found that most of the current agricultural land could be used to accommodate pre-contact farming, but also requires currently state protected ancestral lands to reopen for the public to learn and practice pre-contact farming. Moreover, agricultural studies are unpopular among young people due to the high costs of studying and relatively low future prospect and income, mentioned in the Status Quo (Dible, 2019). Dible noted that the government should invest in the agriculture educational sector to lower the cost of living and encourage people to farm again and study the old methods of agriculture. Education revitalizes the agricultural sector by informing people about the impact of their dietary choices and could motivate people to become active in the sector in any form which is possible. Growing crops conventionally, explore new agricultural practices (e.g. aquaponics), investigate agricultural innovation (R&D) or initiatives raising awareness are all

examples of increasing local potential.

The final recommendation is the shift from cash crops to a diverse variety of consumable crops. This recommendation is dependent on the others, reason being that only cash crops are currently able to provide enough money to sustain a living. However, if subsidies were put in place and agriculture would become more popular, it is necessary that farmers actually change their crops and supply the local food market instead of only increasing their income by continuing with the production of cash crops. Regulations on the direction of subsidies will have to be put in place and be dependent on the productional purpose of a farm.

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Research question (Individual Scientific paper):

Using a Food System Approach (FSA), what interventions are required to initiate a (sustainable) self-sufficient food supply?

Sub division

Negative pressures on food supply

Tourism ‘Traditional food’ Effects of and reasons for high food prices

.. Darowski, L., Strilchuk, J., Sorochuk, J., & Provost, C. (2007). Negative Impact of Tourism on Hawaii Natives and Environment. O'Connor, K. (2008). The Hawaiian luau: food as tradition, transgression, transformation and travel.

Food, Culture & Society, 11(2),

149-172.

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of the Asia Pacific Economy,

1-20. Sub division policy structures Existing power structures

Policy implications Politics of identity

-Brower, A. (2016).

From the sugar

oligarchy to the agrochemical oligopoly: situating Monsanto and gang’s occupation of Hawai ‘i. Food, Culture

& Society, 19(3),

587-614.

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Agriculture and human values, 35(1), 181-192.

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food sovereignty.

Globalizations, 12(4),

529-544.

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power of identity (Vol. 14).

John Wiley & Sons.

Sub division

Hawaiian soils

What soil types are on Hawaii?

What crops are best used on Hawaii?

Fertilizer use

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Nelson, S. C. (2001). Noni cultivation in Hawaii.

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oa.hawaii.edu/handle/101 25/15232

Costa-Pierce, B. A. (1987). Initial feasibility of integrated aquaculture on lava soils in Hawaii.

Aquacultural Engineering, 6(3), 171-182.

in Intensive Vegetable Systems of Hawaii. In 2017 ASHS Annual

Conference. ASHS. Sub division agriculture and hydrology Hawaii’s current hydrological cycle and agricultural elements Current agricultural pressure on hydrological cycle Consequences of agricultural growth and development on the hydrological cycle

Lau, L. K. S., & Mink, J. F. (2006). Hydrology of the

Hawaiian Islands.

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Anthony, S. S. (2004).

Water quality on the Island of Oahu, Hawaii, 1999-2001 (Vol. 1239). US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey . El-Swaify, S. A. (2002, May). Impacts of land use change on soil erosion and water quality—a case study from Hawaii. In

Technology and method of SWC. Proceedings of 12th international soil conservation organization conference (pp. 26-31).

Haygarth, P. M., & Jarvis, S. C. (Eds.). (2002).

Agriculture, hydrology, and water quality. CABI

Pub..

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