• No results found

Value of decomposition figures in emission reduction policy analysis at international level - Report of a traineeship at RIVM

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Value of decomposition figures in emission reduction policy analysis at international level - Report of a traineeship at RIVM"

Copied!
62
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)5,90UHSRUW1: 6UHSRUW1:6, 9DOXHRIGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVLQHPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQSROLF\DQDO\VLVDWLQWHUQDWLRQDOOHYHO 5HSRUWRIDWUDLQHHVKLSDW5,90  $&.HUNKRI. 7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\RUGHUDQGIRUWKHDFFRXQWRIWKH'LUHFWRUDWH *HQHUDOIRU(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ'HSDUWPHQWRI&OLPDWH&KDQJHDQG,QGXVWU\RIWKH 1HWKHUODQGV0LQLVWU\RI+RXVLQJ6SDWLDO3ODQQLQJDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQWZLWKLQWKH IUDPHZRUNRISURMHFWµ,QWHUQDWLRQDO(PLVVLRQVRXUFHV¶SURMHFW 5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQHWHOHID[.

(2) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. $EVWUDFW 'HFRPSRVLWLRQDQDO\VLVLVDPHWKRGIRUGLVHQWDQJOLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWNH\IDFWRUVWKDWGHWHUPLQH WHPSRUDOFKDQJHVLQHPLVVLRQOHYHOV,WLVDµWRSGRZQ¶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

(4) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. 3UHIDFH 7KLVUHSRUWUHSUHVHQWVWKHILQDOSURGXFWRIP\ZRUNSODFHPHQWDWWKH/DERUDWRU\IRU:DVWH 0DWHULDOVDQG(PLVVLRQV /$(

(5) DWWKH1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHIRU3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH (QYLURQPHQW 5,90

(6) ,DPJUDWHIXOWRWKHIROORZLQJRUJDQLVDWLRQVIRUSURYLGLQJPXFKRIWKH LQIRUPDWLRQQHHGHGLQSDUWLFXODU6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV &%6

(7) WKH)OHPLVK(QYLURQPHQW $JHQF\ 900

(8) WKH(QYLURQPHQW,QVSHFWLRQ'HSDUWPHQWRI$0,1$/ )ODQGHUV

(9) DQGWKH (FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU(XURSHRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV 81(&(

(10) ,ZRXOGDOVROLNHWR WKDQNWKH/$(VWDIIPHPEHUVIRUWKHLUKHOSZLWKVSHFLDOWKDQNVWR:LQDQG6PHHWVDQG $QQHPDUWK,GHQEXUJ,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQN$QQHPDUWK,GHQEXUJP\VXSHUYLVRUIRUWKLQNLQJ VHYHUDOGLIILFXOWLHVWKURXJKZLWKPH)LQDOO\P\WKDQNVJRWR+DQV:DDUGHQEXUJ 'HSDUWPHQWRI6FLHQFH7HFKQRORJ\DQG6RFLHW\RIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI8WUHFKWIRUKLVVXSSRUW.

(11) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI.

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

(13) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. /LVWRIILJXUHV )LJXUH5RXJKGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH12 HPLVVLRQIURPFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQWKH LQGXVWU\RIWKH1HWKHUODQGVLQWKHSHULRG  )LJXUH5RXJKGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRI12 HPLVVLRQVIURPFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQ%HOJLDQ LQGXVWU\IURPWR  )LJXUH'HWDLOHGGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH12 HPLVVLRQRIFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQ LQGXVWU\IRUWKH1HWKHUODQGVIURP  )LJXUH'HWDLOHGGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH12 HPLVVLRQVIURPFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQ LQGXVWU\IRU%HOJLXPIURP   )LJXUH'HFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH12 HPLVVLRQRIFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQLQGXVWU\IRU )ODQGHUVLQWKHSHULRGRI   )LJXUH2YHUYLHZRILPSRUWDQWHYHQWVFRQFHUQLQJ12 HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQSROLFLHV  )LJXUH%HOJLXP¶VLQVWLWXWLRQDOVWUXFWXUH 2(&'

(14)    )LJXUH/LQNEHWZHHQSROLFLHVDQGGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV  )LJXUH7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHµWHFKQLTXHHIIHFW¶GHWHUPLQDQWLQWKHUHGXFWLRQRI12  HPLVVLRQVIURPLQGXVWU\LQWKH1HWKHUODQGV  )LJXUH/LQNEHWZHHQSROLFLHVDQGWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHLQ%HOJLXP   [. [. [. [. [. [. [. /LVWRIWDEOHV 7DEOH&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRILQVWUXPHQWVDSSOLHGWRWKLVVWXG\ 9DQ:LMNHWDO

(15)    7DEOH12 HPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQVWREHUHDOLVHGSHUVHFWRULQ  [.

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sLQGHSHULRGH,QGHFDVHVWXG\LV12  HPLVVLHUHGXFWLHEHOHLGJHNRSSHOGDDQGHGHWHUPLQDQWµWHFKQLHNHIIHFW¶'HLQWHUDFWLHWXVVHQGH RQWZLNNHOLQJYDQDISHOSODDWMHVHQGHEHVFKULMYLQJYDQEHOHLGKHHIWHUWRHJHOHLGGDWHU NRSSHOLQJHQJHYRQGHQ]LMQWXVVHQEHOHLGHQWHFKQLHNHIIHFW'DDUQDDVWKHEEHQGH LQVWUXPHQWNHQPHUNHQRQWZLNNHOGGRRU9DQ:LMNHWDO 

(17) VWUXFWXXUJHERGHQELMGH EHSDOLQJYDQGHHIIHFWHQYDQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHLQVWUXPHQWHQ'HLQVWUXPHQWNHQPHUNHQ µGZLQJHQGKHLG¶µDPELWLHQLYHDX¶µWRHSDVVLQJVEHUHLN¶HQµXLWYRHULQJHQKDQGKDYLQJQLYHDX¶ ]LMQWRHJHSDVWLQGHFDVHVWXG\8LWHLQGHOLMN]LMQGHJHYRQGHQNRSSHOLQJHQYDQ1HGHUODQGHQ %HOJLs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sEHVFKUHYHQ(HUVW]LMQGHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHDIVSUDNHQEHVFKUHYHQGLH YDVWJHOHJG]LMQLQGHFRQIHUHQWLHYRRUJUHQVRYHUVFKULMGHQGHHPLVVLHV &/57$3

(18)  

(19) HQ KHW6RSKLD3URWRFRO 

(20) +LHUQD]LMQGH(8ULFKWOLMQYDQHQEHKDQGHOGGLH JHULFKW]LMQRSUHGXFWLHYDQHPLVVLHVGRRUJURWHYHUEUDQGLQJVLQVWDOODWLHV1DHHQEHHOGWH KHEEHQYHUNUHJHQYDQKHWLQWHUQDWLRQDOHEHOHLGVNDGHUYDQ1HGHUODQGHQ%HOJLsZRUGWKHW QDWLRQDOHEHOHLGEHVFKUHYHQ'HEHOHLGVSODQQHQZRUGHQEHVFKUHYHQHQHUZRUGWLQJHJDDQRS GHEHOHLGVLQVWUXPHQWHQRPGDWLQVWUXPHQWHQHHQEHODQJULMNHSODDWVLQQHPHQLQGHNRSSHOLQJ YDQEHOHLGDDQDISHOSODDWMHV6SHFLDOHDDQGDFKWLVEHVWHHGDDQGHMXULGLVFKHLQVWUXPHQWHQ RPGDWYHUZDFKWZHUGGDWGH]HLQVWUXPHQWHQHHQJURWHLQYORHGKHEEHQRSKHWHPLVVLHYHUORRS 9RRUKHW1HGHUODQGVHEHOHLG]LMQHQNHOHNRSSHOLQJHQJHYRQGHQPHWWHFKQLHNHIIHFW'H]H NRSSHOLQJHQ]LMQJHYRQGHQWXVVHQKHWMXULGLVFKHLQVWUXPHQW%HVOXLW(PLVVLH(LVHQ 6WRRNLQVWDOODWLHV %((6

(21) HQWHFKQLHNHIIHFW,Q%HOJLsKHHIWWHFKQLHNHIIHFW]LFKQDXZHOLMNV RQWZLNNHOGZDDUGRRUUHODWLHVPRHLOLMNWHOHJJHQZDUHQ'HDIZH]LJKHLGYDQWHFKQLHNHIIHFW ZRUGWYHUNODDUGGRRUGHPDNNHOLMNKDDOEDUHHPLVVLHHLVHQLQ%HOJLs'HNRSSHOLQJHQWXVVHQ EHOHLGHQDISHOSODDWMHYDQ1HGHUODQGHQ%HOJLs]LMQPHWHONDDUYHUJHOHNHQ+LHUXLWZRUGW GXLGHOLMNGDWKHWYHUVFKLOLQWHFKQLHNHIIHFWWXVVHQ1HGHUODQGHQ%HOJLsYRRUDOZRUGW YHURRU]DDNWGRRUKHWYHUVFKLOLQDPELWLHQLYHDXYDQGHHPLVVLHHLVHQ.

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

(25)  

(26) DQGWKH6RSKLDSURWRFRO 

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

(28) DQGWHFKQLTXHHIIHFW7HFKQLTXHHIIHFWKDUGO\GHYHORSHGLQ%HOJLXPZKLFK KDPSHUHGWKHOLQNLQJRISROLFLHVWRWHFKQLTXHHIIHFW7KHHDV\DFKLHYDEOHHPLVVLRQOLPLWVRI %HOJLXPH[SODLQWKHDEVHQFHRIWHFKQLTXHHIIHFWLQ%HOJLXP7KHOLQNDJHVEHWZHHQSROLFLHV DQGGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG%HOJLXPKDYHEHHQFRPSDUHG7KLVKDVOHG WRWKHLGHDWKDWGLIIHUHQFHVLQWHFKQLTXHHIIHFWEHWZHHQWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG%HOJLXPDUH FDXVHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQFHLQDPELWLRQOHYHORIWKHHPLVVLRQOLPLWV.

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

(30) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. . ,QWURGXFWLRQ. /DUJHVFDOHDLUSROOXWLRQLVDZHOONQRZQWKHPHLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLFLHV7KLV SUREOHPFDPHXSIRUGLVFXVVLRQDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHVZKHQWUDQVERXQGDU\DLU SROOXWLRQZDVUHODWHGWRWKHGHJUDGDWLRQRI6FDQGLQDYLDQODNHV0DQ\LQYHVWLJDWLRQV GHPRQVWUDWHGWKHOLQNEHWZHHQVXOSKXUHPLVVLRQVLQFRQWLQHQWDO(XURSHDQGWKHDFLGLILFDWLRQ RI6FDQGLQDYLDQODNHV/DWHUVWXGLHVFRQILUPHGWKDWDLUSROOXWDQWVOLNHVXOSKXUGLR[LGH 62

(31)  QLWURJHQR[LGHV 12

(32) DQG9RODWLOH2UJDQLF&RPSRXQGV 92&

(33) FDQWUDYHOVHYHUDOWKRXVDQG NLORPHWUHVEHIRUHGHSRVLWLRQDQGGDPDJHRFFXU ZZZXQHFHRUJHQYOUWDS9DQGHU6WUDDWHQ 

(34)  . [. 7UDQVERXQGDU\DLUSROOXWDQWVQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWQDWXUHDJULFXOWXUDOFURSVPDWHULDOVDQGKXPDQ KHDOWK1HJDWLYHHIIHFWVRQQDWXUHILQGH[SUHVVLRQLQGHFOLQHRIVRLOTXDOLW\LQFUHDVHLQWKH DOXPLQLXPDQGQLWUDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHJURXQGZDWHUURRWGHJUDGDWLRQRIWUHHVDQGSODQWV DQGLQFUHDVHGVWUHVVVHQVLWLYLW\RIWUHHV7KHVHHIIHFWVXOWLPDWHO\OHDGWRGHJUDGDWLRQRIQDWXUH DQGGHFUHDVHLQELRGLYHUVLW\7UDQVERXQGDU\DLUSROOXWDQWVDOVROHDGWRSRRUDLUTXDOLW\ZKLFK QHJDWLYHO\HIIHFWVKXPDQKHDOWK12 IRUH[DPSOHLVDUHDFWLYHR[LGLVLQJFRPSRXQGZKLFK FDQUHDFWZLWKWLVVXHVLQWKHDLUZD\V(VSHFLDOO\DVWKPDDQGEURQFKLWLVSDWLHQWVH[SHULHQFH QHJDWLYHHIIHFWVIURPWKLV 9520

(35)  [. ,QWKHODVWIHZGHFDGHVPDQ\HIIRUWVKDYHEHHQPDGHWRVROYHWKHSUREOHPRIWUDQVERXQGDU\ DLUSROOXWLRQDWLQWHUQDWLRQDODQGQDWLRQDOOHYHOV,QWHUQDWLRQDODJUHHPHQWVZHUHODLGGRZQLQ WKH&RQYHQWLRQRQ/RQJ5DQJH7UDQVERXQGDU\$LU3ROOXWLRQ &/57$3

(36) RIZKLFKZDV VLJQHGE\FRXQWULHVDQGWKH(88QGHU&/57$3VHYHUDOSURWRFROVRQGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRI SROOXWDQWVZHUHSDVVHG7KH3DUWLHVWRWKH&/57$3DQGLWVSURWRFROVKDYHWKHREOLJDWLRQWR FRPSO\ZLWKWKHDJUHHPHQWV,QWKHFRXUVHRIWLPHFRXQWULHVKDYHGHYHORSHGVWUDWHJLHVDQG SROLFLHVWRUHGXFHWKHLUHPLVVLRQV,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHDJUHHPHQWVFRXQWULHVUHSRUW SHULRGLFDOO\WRWKH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU(XURSH 81(&(

(37) RQWKHSURJUHVVLQSROLF\ PDNLQJDQGWKHDFWXDOHPLVVLRQVRISROOXWDQWV&RPSOLDQFHRIWKH3DUWLHVZLWKWKHDJUHHPHQWV LVFRQWUROOHGLQWKLVZD\7KHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQFRXQWULHVPD\EHUHYHDOHGWKURXJKWKH H[FKDQJHRIQDWLRQDOVWUDWHJLHVDQGSROLFLHV)RUH[DPSOHWKHUHSRUWVSURYHWKDWWKHGHJUHH RIUHGXFWLRQGLIIHUVSHUFRXQWU\ 81(&(81(&(>QLHWRSOLMVWZHO@

(38)  7KHDYDLODELOLW\RIWUDQVSDUHQWPHWKRGRORJLHVZLOOSURYLGHDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI GLIIHUHQFHVLQQDWLRQDOFLUFXPVWDQFHVEHWZHHQFRXQWULHVDQGWKHLULQIOXHQFHRQFXUUHQWDQG IXWXUHHPLVVLRQOHYHOV 3K\OLSVHQ

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

(40) DQG+DUPHOLQNHWDO 

(41) 1RWRQO\FDQWKLVPHWKRGVXVWDLQHPLVVLRQ WUHQGDQDO\VLVRIDFHUWDLQFRXQWU\LWFDQDOVRSURYLGHDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIGLIIHUHQFHVLQ QDWLRQDOHPLVVLRQFRXUVHV7KHPHWKRGTXDQWLILHVWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWGHYHORSPHQWV.

(42) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. XQGHUO\LQJWKHFRXUVHRIHPLVVLRQV +DUPHOLQNDQG,GHQEXUJ

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

(45) DQG+DUPHOLQNHWDO 

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

(47) ZHUHXVHGIRUGHWHUPLQLQJLWVHIIHFW$QLQVWUXPHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFFDQEH VHHQDVDVSHFLILFSDUWRIWKHSROLF\LQVWUXPHQWGHVLJQVRDVWRVWLPXODWHDFRPSDQ\WRDFW DFFRUGLQJWRWKHEHKDYLRUDOVWDQGDUGZKLFKWKLVLQVWUXPHQWLPSRVHVRQLW7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RIWKHLQVWUXPHQWGHYHORSHGFRUUHVSRQGZLWKVXSSRVLWLRQVUHODWHGWRWKHHIIHFWRISROLF\ LQVWUXPHQWVLQWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVRILQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVWRLQYHVWLQHQHUJ\VDYLQJ PHDVXUHV 9DQ:LMNHWDO

(48) )RXURXWRIWKHWZHOYHLQVWUXPHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFVGHYHORSHG ZHUHVSHFLDOO\DSSOLHGLQWKLVVWXG\WKHVHDUHµLPSHUDWLYHQHVV¶µDPELWLRQOHYHO¶µUDQJH¶DQG µOHYHORIH[HFXWLRQDQGHQIRUFHPHQW¶7DEOHGHVFULEHVWKHLQVWUXPHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV [. )LQDOO\12 HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQSROLFLHVDQGWKHUHVXOWLQJHIIHFWVRIWKHVHSROLFLHVZHUH FRPSDUHGEHWZHHQWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG%HOJLXP7KLVFRPSDULVRQZRXOGJDLQLQVLJKWLQWR WKHYDOXHRIGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVXVHGLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLF\DQDO\VLV [.

(49) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. 7DEOH&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRILQVWUXPHQWVDSSOLHGWRWKLVVWXG\ 9DQ:LMNHWDO

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

(51) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. . 'HFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHV. ([SODQDWLRQRIGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHV 7KHHPLVVLRQWUHQGDQDO\VLVPHWKRGXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\LVEDVHGRQWKHDUWLFOHVRI6HOGHQHWDO 

(52) DQG+DUPHOLQNHWDO 

(53) ,QWKLVPHWKRGWKHIROORZLQJGHWHUPLQDQWVDUH GLVWLQJXLVKHGVFDOHHIIHFWVWUXFWXUHHIIHFWHQHUJ\LQWHQVLW\HIIHFWPL[RIIXHOVHIIHFWDQG WHFKQLTXHHIIHFW7KHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQVFDOFXODWHWKHHPLVVLRQRIDSROOXWDQWLQDFHUWDLQ \HDU 3

(54) WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHGHWHUPLQDQWV LQG. 3  LQG. *3,  680 > *3, *3,

(55)   ( *3,

(56)   ( (

(57)   3 (

(58) @ LQG. LM. M. LQG. M. M. LM. M. LM. LM. *3,  680 >6  ,  )  (0 @ LQG. *3, *3, ( ( 3 6 , ) (0. LQG M. M. LM. LM M. M. LM. LM. LM. M. M. LM. LM. JURVVSURGXFWRILQGXVWU\ *3,

(59) *3,RIVHFWRUMLQLQGXVWU\ HQHUJ\XVHVHFWRUM HQHUJ\XVHRIIXHOLLQVHFWRUM HPLVVLRQRIIXHOLLQVHFWRUM FRQWULEXWLRQRIVHFWRUMWR*3,RILQGXVWU\ HQHUJ\LQWHQVLW\RIVHFWRUM FRQWULEXWLRQIXHOLWRHQHUJ\XVHRIVHFWRUM HPLVVLRQLQWHQVLW\RIIXHOLRIVHFWRUM. (DFKGHWHUPLQDQWDIIHFWVWKHHPLVVLRQFRXUVHLQLWVRZQZD\7KHGHJUHHRILQIOXHQFHRIWKH GHWHUPLQDQWVGLIIHUVEHWZHHQFRXQWULHVDQGLQWLPH7KHGHWHUPLQDQWµVFDOHHIIHFW¶UHSUHVHQWV WKHFKDQJHVLQWKHHPLVVLRQFRXUVHDVDUHVXOWRIFKDQJHVLQJURVVSURGXFWRIWRWDOLQGXVWU\ *3,LVSRVLWLYHO\FRUUHODWHGZLWKWKHGHJUHHRIHPLVVLRQRISROOXWDQWV)RUH[DPSOH 12 HPLVVLRQVZLOOLQFUHDVHZLWKJURZLQJ*3,µ6WUXFWXUHHIIHFW¶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

(60) 7KHGHWHUPLQDQWµIXHOPL[¶ UHSUHVHQWVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIFKDQJHVLQIXHOPL[RQWKHHPLVVLRQFRXUVH)XHOPL[LQIOXHQFHV WKHHPLVVLRQFRXUVHEHFDXVHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIIXHOVHPLWGLIIHUHQWDPRXQWVRISROOXWDQWV$ VKLIWLQIXHOXVHIURPFRDOWRJDVFDXVHVDGHFUHDVHRIHPLVVLRQV7KHGHWHUPLQDQWµWHFKQLTXH HIIHFW¶UHIOHFWVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIHPLVVLRQUHGXFLQJWHFKQLTXHVLQLQGXVWU\RQ WKHFRXUVHRIHPLVVLRQV [. 7KHILJXUHVSURGXFHGE\WKHHPLVVLRQWUHQGDQDO\VLVPHWKRGDUHFDOOHGµGHFRPSRVLWLRQ ILJXUHV¶7KHQDPHµGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHV¶UHIHUVWRWKHXQUDYHOLQJRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJ GHYHORSPHQWVRIHPLVVLRQFRXUVHV,QGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVERWKWKHDFWXDOHPLVVLRQFRXUVH DQGWKHXQGHUO\LQJGHYHORSPHQWVDUHPDGHYLVLEOH7KHLQIOXHQFHRIGHWHUPLQDQWVLVPDGH.

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

(62)  [. 'HFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVRIWKH1HWKHUODQGV%HOJLXPDQG )ODQGHUV 'HYHORSPHQWRIGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHV 5RXJKGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG%HOJLXPKDGDOUHDG\EHHQGHYHORSHGDW WKH5,90IRUWKHSHULRG )LJXUHVDQG

(63) ,QWKHVHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVWKHIXHO PL[HIIHFWLVVXEGLYLGHGLQWRIXHOPL[ZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVWKHPL[RIHQHUJ\XVHLQWKHIRUP RIHOHFWULFLW\DQGIXHOVDQGIXHOPL[ZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVWKHPL[RIHQHUJ\XVHLQWKHIRUPRI FRDORLODQGJDV7KHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVZHUHGUDZQIURPGDWDIURPYDULRXVVRXUFHV 'DWDIRUWKHJURVVSURGXFWRIWRWDOLQGXVWU\DQGWKHLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG %HOJLXPRULJLQDWHIURPWKHUHSRUWµ(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ULRULWLHVDQ,QWHJUDWHG (FRQRPLFDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW¶ 

(64) 7KHHQHUJ\VWDWLVWLFVDUHWDNHQIURPWKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QHUJ\$JHQF\ ,($

(65) DQG12 HPLVVLRQVRULJLQDWHLQWKH3URJUDPIRU 0RQLWRULQJDQG(YDOXDWLRQRIWKH/RQJUDQJH7UDQVPLVVLRQVRI$LU3ROOXWDQWVLQ(XURSH (0(3

(66)  [. 7KHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVDOUHDG\GHYHORSHGZHUHDGDSWHGZLWKDYLHZWRSROLF\DQDO\VLV )LUVWFKDQJHVLQHPLVVLRQVZHUHFDOFXODWHGSHU\HDULQVWHDGRIRQFHLQILYH\HDUVEHFDXVH GHWDLOHGGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVIDFLOLWDWHUHFRJQLWLRQRIHIIHFWVRISROLFLHVRQWKHHPLVVLRQ FRXUVH7RRURXJKILJXUHVFDQVPRRWKGRZQHIIHFWVRILQGLYLGXDOSROLF\PHDVXUHV1H[WWKH SHULRGZDVFRQWLQXHGWREHFDXVHDORQJHUSHULRGZRXOGSURYLGHPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQ.

(67) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. 12 HPLVVLRQ NWRQ

(68). . [. . VFDOH VWUXFWXUH HQHUJ\LQW IXHOPL[.  . IXHOPL[ UHDOL]DWLRQ.    . . . . . . . . \HDU. )LJXUH5RXJKGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH12[HPLVVLRQIURPFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQWKH LQGXVWU\RIWKH1HWKHUODQGVLQWKHSHULRG. 12[HPLVVLRQV NWRQ

(69) .  . VF DOH. . VWUXF WXUH H QH UJ \LQW. . IXH OP L[. . IXH OP L[ UH DOL]DWLR Q.   . . . . . . . . \HDU. )LJXUH5RXJKGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRI12[HPLVVLRQVIURPFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQ%HOJLDQ LQGXVWU\IURPWR DERXWGHYHORSPHQWVLQHPLVVLRQFRXUVHV%HVLGHVLQWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH 1HWKHUODQGV )LJXUH

(70) WKHHIIHFWRIWKHWHFKQLTXHZDVFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKHDLGRIHPLVVLRQ IDFWRUV,QWKHILUVWYHUVLRQRIWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVWKHµWHFKQLTXH HIIHFW¶ZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHVWHSVRIµIXHOPL[¶DQGµUHDOL]DWLRQ¶ 6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV &%6

(71) FDOFXODWHGHPLVVLRQIDFWRUVSHUIRVVLOIXHO 12 HPLVVLRQHQHUJ\ XVH

(72) RIWKH1HWKHUODQGVIRUWKH\HDUVDQG)RU%HOJLXP )LJXUH

(73) WKH HPLVVLRQIDFWRUIRUWKH1HWKHUODQGVZDVXVHGIRUDOO\HDUV7KLVHPLVVLRQIDFWRUZLOOQRW [.

(74) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. GHYLDWHPXFKIURPWKHHPLVVLRQIDFWRUIRU%HOJLXPDWWKDWWLPHEHFDXVHQR12 UHGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHVKDG\HWEHHQLPSOHPHQWHGLQHLWKHUFRXQWU\DWWKDWWLPH7KHµWHFKQLTXHHIIHFW¶ ZDVQRWFDOFXODWHGIRU%HOJLXP7KHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWHFKQLTXHVLQLQGXVWU\IRU%HOJLXPLV LQGLFDWHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHVWHSVµIXHOPL[HIIHFW¶DQGµUHDOL]DWLRQ¶ [.  . 12 HPLVVLRQ NWRQ

(75).    . VF D OH VWU X F WX UH. . H Q H U J \  LQ W . . [. I X H O  P L[   I X H O  P L[  . . U H D O L ] D W LR Q.     . WH F K Q LT X H .  .   .  .   .  .   .  . \ HD U. )LJXUH'HWDLOHGGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHRIWKH12[HPLVVLRQRIFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQLQGXVWU\ IRUWKH1HWKHUODQGVIURP .  12 HPLVVLRQ NWRQ

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

(77) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. RWKHUVRXUFHVWKDQWKHGDWDRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG%HOJLXPEHFDXVHLQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQVGRQRWSURYLGHUHJLRQDOGDWDRIFRXQWULHV7KHGDWDRQJURVVSURGXFWRIWRWDO LQGXVWU\RULJLQDWHLQWKH1DWLRQDO%DQNRI%HOJLXP 1%%

(78) 'DWDZHUHDYDLODEOHIRUWKH\HDU RQZDUGEHFDXVHDQHZPHWKRGKDGEHHQXVHGDIWHU7KHJURVVLQGXVWULDOSURGXFW IRUZDVFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHVHGDWD(QHUJ\VWDWLVWLFVRULJLQDWHLQWKH)OHPLVK,QVWLWXWH IRU7HFKQRORJLFDO5HVHDUFK 9,72

(79) 12 HPLVVLRQVRIFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVLQLQGXVWU\ZHUH FDOFXODWHGE\WKH)OHPLVK(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\ 900

(80) 12 HPLVVLRQVIRU)ODQGHUVVHHP WRRORZLQFRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUH+RZHYHU12 HPLVVLRQVIRU)ODQGHUV VHHPDOVRWREHWRRORZLQSURSRUWLRQWRWKH%HOJLDQWRWDO12 HPLVVLRQVRULJLQDWLQJLQ LQGXVWU\7KHFRHIILFLHQWRIWKHPRQLWRUHG12 HPLVVLRQLVHTXDOWRWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIWKH FDOFXODWHGIXHOPL[OLQHLPSO\LQJWKDWWKHWHFKQLTXHHIIHFWLVDEVHQWLQ)ODQGHUV )LJXUH

(81)  [. [. [. [. [. 12 HPLVVLRQ NWRQ

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

(83) 6RZRUNLQJZLWKGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHV UHTXLUHVDWWHQWLRQIRUUHOLDELOLW\RIGDWD [. [.

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µWHFKQLTXHHIIHFW¶DOVRSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWSDUWLQWKH12 HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQRIWKH 1HWKHUODQGV+RZHYHUWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQILJXUHVRI%HOJLXPDQG)ODQGHUVGRQRWVKRZWKH µWHFKQLTXHHIIHFW¶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

(86) )LJXUH2YHUYLHZRILPSRUWDQWHYHQWVFRQFHUQLQJ12[HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQSROLFLHV. 5,905HSRUW. 3DJHRI.

(87) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI.

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

(89) RQ+XPDQ(QYLURQPHQWLQ6WRFNKROPLQ$WWKHFRQIHUHQFH FRXQWULHVGHFODUHGWKHPVHOYHVXQSUHSDUHGWRWDNHPHDVXUHVEXWGHFLGHGWRFDUU\RXWH[WHQVLYH UHVHDUFK%HWZHHQDQGVHYHUDOVWXGLHVFRQILUPHGWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWDLUSROOXWDQWV FRXOGWUDYHOVHYHUDOWKRXVDQGVRINLORPHWUHVEHIRUHGHSRVLWLRQDQGGDPDJHRFFXU,QUHVSRQVH WRWKHVHILQGLQJVDKLJKOHYHOPHHWLQJZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRIWKH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU (XURSH (&(

(90) ZDVKHOGDWPLQLVWHULDOOHYHOLQ*HQHYDLQ,WUHVXOWHGLQWKHVLJQDWXUHRI WKH&RQYHQWLRQRQ/RQJ5DQJH7UDQVERXQGDU\$LU3ROOXWLRQ &/57$3

(91) E\JRYHUQPHQWV DQGWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLW\ (&

(92) 7KH&/57$3ZDVWKHILUVWOHJDOO\ELQGLQJLQVWUXPHQWWR DEDWHDLUSROOXWLRQRQODUJHVFDOHDQGFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRILQWHUQDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQWDOODZV8QGHUWKH&/57$3VHYHUDOSURWRFROVSDVVHGLQFOXGLQJWKH6RILD 3URWRFROLQ%XOJDULD 

(93)  ZZZXQHFHRUJHQYOUWDS

(94) 7KH3DUWLHVWRWKH6RILD 3URWRFRORQWKHFRQWURORI12[HPLVVLRQVKDYHWKHREOLJDWLRQWRVWDELOLVH12[HPLVVLRQVE\ WKHHQGRIDWOHYHOV$OPRVWDOOSDUWLHVWRWKHSURWRFROUHDFKHGWKLVREMHFWLYH,Q DGGLWLRQWZHOYHSDUWLHVPDGHDGHFODUDWLRQWRWKHHIIHFWWKDWWKH\ZLOODLPIRUDUHGXFWLRQRI 12[HPLVVLRQVLQWKHRUGHURIEDVHGRQHPLVVLRQOHYHOVRIDQ\\HDUEHWZHHQDQG DVVRRQDVSRVVLEOHDQGDWWKHODWHVWE\ 81(&(

(95)  7KHSDUWLHVWRWKH6RILD3URWRFROKDYHWRPHHWDQXPEHURIREOLJDWLRQV%R[VKRZVWKH UHOHYDQWDJUHHPHQWVIRU12[HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQLQLQGXVWU\7KHPDLQSRLQWVDUHHVWDEOLVKLQJ FULWLFDOORDGVDSSO\LQJHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGVEDVHGRQWKH%HVW$YDLODEOH7HFKQRORJLHV1RW ([FHHGLQJ([FHVVLYH&RVWV %$71((&

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

(98).  ,QGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVVLJQHGWKH*RWKHQEXUJ3URWRFROIRUWKHDEDWHPHQWRIDFLGLILFDWLRQ. HXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGJURXQGOHYHOR]RQH7KH3URWRFROVHWVHPLVVLRQFHLOLQJVIRUIRUIRXU SROOXWDQWVVXOSKXU12[92&V1+2QFHWKH3URWRFROLVIXOO\LPSOHPHQWHG(XURSH¶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

(99) 7KHILUVWIRXUDFWLRQSURJUDPPHV ZHUHRIOHVVLQWHUHVW6LQFHWKHVLJQLQJRIWKH(XURSHDQ6LQJOH$FWLQHQYLURQPHQWDO SROLFLHVEHFDPHDQH[SOLFLWUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH(87KH(8DOVRLQFOXGHVKDUPRQLVDWLRQRI HQYLURQPHQWDOSROLFLHVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDO0HPEHU6WDWHVLQLWVILHOGRIZRUN7KHJXLGHOLQHIRU WKH)LIWK$FWLRQ3URJUDPPHRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQLVFDOOHGVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQW 9DQGHU6WUDDWHQD

(100) ,QWKH)LIWK$FWLRQ3URJUDPPHWKHEDVLFSULQFLSOHVRID(XURSHDQ VWUDWHJ\ZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGIRUWKHSHULRG ZZZHXURSDHXLQW

(101) 7KH1DWLRQDO (QYLURQPHQWDO3ROLF\3ODQ 1(33

(102) RIWKH1HWKHUODQGVFDQEHUHFRJQLVHGLQWKLVDFWLRQ SURJUDPPH2QHRIWKHVLPLODULWLHVLVWKHIUDPHZRUNZKLFKVWLOOKDVWREHFRQYHUWHGLQWR FRQFUHWHPHDVXUHV'LUHFWLYHVQRUPDOO\H[SUHVVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKH(83ROLFLHVDUH HVWDEOLVKHGLQGLUHFWLYHVWKDWKDYHWREHLPSOHPHQWHGE\0HPEHU6WDWHV(&GLUHFWLYHVDUH QRWDOZD\VFRPSOHWHO\LPSOHPHQWHG 9DQGHU6WUDDWHQD

(103)     .

(104) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI  XURSHDQSROLFLHVRQ12[HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQLQLQGXVWU\ (  ,QWKH(8EHFDPHDPHPEHURIWKH&RQYHQWLRQRI7UDQVERXQGDU\$LU3ROOXWLRQ. &/57$3

(105) $VDUHVXOWRIWKLVPHPEHUVKLSDQGWKH$FWLRQ3URJUDPPHRIWKH &RPPLVVLRQ¶VDPELWLRQZDVWRHVWDEOLVKDLUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGVDQGHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGV,Q WKH(&'LUHFWLYH ((*

(106) RQWKHFRPEDWLQJRIDLUSROOXWLRQIURPLQGXVWULDOSODQWV ZDVGUDZQ7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVGLUHFWLYHLVWRSURYLGHIRUIXUWKHUPHDVXUHVDQGSURFHGXUHV GHVLJQHGWRSUHYHQWRUUHGXFHDLUSROOXWLRQIURPLQGXVWULDOSODQWVZLWKLQWKH&RPPXQLW\ 9DULRXVPHDVXUHVKDYHWREHPHWE\WKH0HPEHU6WDWHV %R[

(107)   %R[3DUWVRIWKH(&'LUHFWLYHRQFRPEDWLQJDLUSROOXWLRQIURPLQGXVWULDOSODQWV 

(108). ZZZHXURSDHXLQW

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

(110) VSHFLDODWWHQWLRQZDVSDLGWRDLUSROOXWLRQDEDWHPHQWDWWKHVRXUFH(PLVVLRQ OLPLWVZHUHGHWHUPLQHGLQWKH(&'LUHFWLYHRI ((*

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

(115) ZKLFKDSSHDUHGVLQFH7KHPRVW LPSRUWDQWLQVWUXPHQWVDUHWKHGHFUHHRQHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGVRIFRPEXVWLRQLQVWDOODWLRQV %((6

(116) SHUPLWVDQGYROXQWDU\DJUHHPHQWV,PSOHPHQWDWLRQWDNHVSODFHLQDF\FOLFSURFHVVLQ ZKLFKGLIIHUHQWSKDVHVKDYHWREHWUDYHUVHGE\JRYHUQPHQWDQGLQGXVWU\ +RHNHWDO

(117)    3ROLF\SODQV  3ROLFLHVFRQFHUQLQJ12[HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQEHJDQWRGHYHORSLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKHHLJKWLHV. ,QWKH,QGLFDWLYH/RQJ5DQJH3URJUDPPHRQ$LU 

(118) ZKLFKZDVWKHVHFRQGUHSRUW LQDVHULHVRI\HDUO\XSGDWHG/RQJ5DQJH3URJUDPPHVFRQFHUQLQJDLUSROOXWLRQDEDWHPHQWD.

(119) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. VWUDWHJ\ZDVGUDZQXSWRGHWHUPLQHHPLVVLRQOLPLWVIRUVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV7KLVVWUDWHJ\ GHVFULEHGSUHFLVHO\LQZKLFKZD\HPLVVLRQOLPLWVZRXOGEHVHW,WZDVLQWHQGHGWRVHW HPLVVLRQOLPLWVIRUH[LVWLQJDQGQHZSODQWVVHSDUDWHO\%HVLGHVHPLVVLRQOLPLWVIRUQHZ SODQWVZRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHFRQFHSWRIµVWDWHRIWHFKQLTXH¶7KLVFRQFHSWZDV LQWURGXFHGLQFRQIRUPLW\ZLWKWKHDSSURDFKWRWKH(&'LUHFWLYHRIRQDLUSROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQWFDXVHGE\LQGXVWULDOSODQWVZKLFKZDVLQWKHPDNLQJDWWKDWWLPH(PLVVLRQ VWDQGDUGVZRXOGEHVHWGRZQLQDGHFUHH'UDIWVRIWKLVGHFUHHZHUHSXEOLVKHGLQ ,QGLFDWLYH/RQJ5DQJH3URJUDPPH$LU

(120) 6LQFHWKH'HFUHHRQHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGV IRUFRPEXVWLRQLQVWDOODWLRQV %((6

(121) LQWKHVWLPXOXVIURP12[UHGXFWLRQSROLFLHVLQ LQGXVWU\EHFDPHVWURQJHU 9DQ3HSSHOHWDO

(122)   )URPWKHUHSRUWVµ2XU&RPPRQ)XWXUH¶ 

(123) E\WKH%UXQGWODQGW&RPPLVVLRQDQGWKH. UHSRUWµ&RQFHUQIRU7RPRUURZ¶ 

(124) RIWKH1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHIRU3XEOLF+HDOWKDQG (QYLURQPHQW 5,90

(125) WKHFRQFOXVLRQZDVGUDZQWKDWLQWHQVLILFDWLRQDQGEURDGHQLQJRI HQYLURQPHQWDOSROLFLHVZHUHXUJHQWDQGWKDWVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWZRXOGWDNHGHFDGHV 7KLVVRFLDODQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHOHGWRWKHDSSHDUDQFHRIWKHILUVW1DWLRQDO (QYLURQPHQWDO3ROLF\3ODQ 1(33

(126) LQ,QWKLVSODQDVWUDWHJLFPHGLXPORQJWHUPSODQ KDGEHHQGUDZQXSIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLFLHVIRUWKHILUVWWLPH7KHVWUDWHJ\DLPHGDW UHDOLVLQJVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQW1(33FRYHUVWKHSHULRGDQGFRQWDLQVWKH SROLF\DFWLRQVZKLFKZHUHLQDQ\FDVHQHHGHGGXULQJWKHSODQQLQJSHULRGWRJHW WKHGHVLUHGGHYHORSPHQWJRLQJ  1(33 

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

(128) )XUWKHUPRUH LQGXVWU\ZDVHQFRXUDJHGWRVDYHHQHUJ\ VWUXFWXUDOVRXUFHRULHQWHGPHDVXUH

(129) ZKLFKZRXOG.

(130) 5,90UHSRUW3DJHRI. DOVRUHGXFH12[HPLVVLRQV.  6XSSRUWLQJDFWLYLWLHVZHUHDOVRGHYHORSHGIRUDPRUHHIIHFWLYHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI 12[HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQPHDVXUHVIRUH[DPSOHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQ. V\VWHPVE\HQWHUSULVHV&RPSDQLHVFRXOGRXWOLQHWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWDOREMHFWLYHVDQG VWUDWHJLHVWRUHDFKWKHVHREMHFWLYHVLQDQHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQV\VWHP7KHGHYHORSPHQWRI HQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQV\VWHPVVWUHQJWKHQWKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\RILQGXVWU\ 1(33

(131)  1(33DWWUDFWHGDWWHQWLRQDWLQWHUQDWLRQDOOHYHO 9DQGHU6WUDDWHQD

(132) EHFDXVHWKH WUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKJHDUHGWRLQGLYLGXDOWUHDWPHQWRIDLUZDWHUDQGVRLOSUREOHPVZDV UHSODFHGE\DQLQWHJUDOSROLF\DSSURDFKJHDUHGWRWKHPHVFRQQHFWHGWRORQJWHUPREMHFWLYHV 7KLVZDVDZKROHQHZDSSURDFKLQHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\7KH'XWFKDSSURDFKRILQWHJUDO SROLF\SODQQLQJZDVWUDQVIHUUHGWRLPSRUWDQWSDUWVRIWKH)LIWK(QYLURQPHQWDO$FWLRQ 3URJUDPPHRIWKH(8 1(33

(133)   1(33SOXV 

(134)  1(33SOXV 

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

(137)  VHHVHFWLRQ

(138)  1(33 

(139) 1(33DQG1(33SOXVVHWREMHFWLYHVDQGVWUDWHJLHVIRU12[HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQIRUWKH V1(33IRFXVHGPDLQO\RQWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRISROLFLHV3ODQVFRQFHUQLQJ VWUHQJWKHQLQJRILPSOHPHQWDWLRQZHUHGHYHORSHGZLWKWKHDLGRIWKHUHSRUW 1(33(YDOXDWLRQ IRULQGXVWU\ LQZKLFKH[SHULHQFHVRILQGXVWU\ZLWKSROLF\PHDVXUHVZHUHGHVFULEHG :KHQLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI1(33DQG1(33SOXVZDVHYDOXDWHGLWZDVIRXQGWKDW1(33.

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

(141) VLQFHPRVWPHDVXUHVZHUHUHODWHGWRUHSODFHPHQWLQYHVWPHQWV 1(33 

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

An individual can work as unskilled in both periods, or investment in human capital in the first period and work as a skilled worker in the second period, where h&gt;0,

Considering long-term lags of L4 to L7, the net long-term enrollment effect on the store revenue is, on average, positive and significant (Table 12), which supports

Besides differences between the building periods caused by the dependent variables, the independent input values appear to have different influence on the output. Most of

During the next six months I will write a thesis about with the main title ‘Increase the customer value of current international accounts, a study on the internal marketing and

The indicators show the state of and trends in the main natural or semi-natural ecosystems in Flanders, and only well-researched plant and animal species are discussed..

Jensma to do an internship under his supervision for the Centrum Groninger Taal en Cultuur (Center Groningen Language and Culture) focusing on the regional language

(Classroom, group work, individual work) Individual work in groups with iPad Dutch/English language switches by the teacher: Central language Dutch by teacher

In a few weeks, the Mongolian parliament would be discussing new laws on whistleblowing and anti-corruption, thus my boss wanted me to write articles about whistleblowing,