Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET
June 20 – June 26, 2013
A tropical depression in the Gulf of Honduras resulted in torrential rains for coastal areas in Honduras, Guatemala and Belize.
1) Despite a moderate increase in moisture during the last three weeks, poorly distributed rainfall since April has resulted in developing Primera season dryness throughout the Olancho department of Honduras, as well as in the Jinotega and Atlántico Norte departments of Nicaragua.
2) During the next week, rains, enhanced by a tropical depression to the north, are likely to be heavy across already saturated and flood/landslide prone areas in northwestern
Guatemala.
FEWSNET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The FEWSNET weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by FEWSNET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries such as, INETER of Nicaragua, Meteorological Service of Honduras, IMN of Costa Rica, INSIVUMEH of Guatemala, ETESA of Panama, NMS of Belize and SNET of El Salvador. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424. Questions about the FEWSNET activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for FEWSNET, 1-202-219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.
Torrential rains caused by a tropical depression impacted locations around the Gulf of Honduras
During the last seven days, heavy rains (>50mm) fell across the Caribbean coastlines of Central American. The heaviest rains (>75mm) were recorded across northern Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, central/eastern Nicaragua, and localized areas in El Salvador. The abundant and above- average weekly rainfall across Nicaragua helped to reduce seasonal rainfall deficits that had been steadily growing since the start of May. The previously poor rains had begun to negatively impact cropping activities in the Jinotega and Atlántico Norte departments of Nicaragua. The heavy rains in El Salvador also helped to reduce thirty-day and Primera season rainfall deficits. Farther north, rains were light to moderate (5-40mm) in drier-than-average locations in the Olancho department of Honduras. However, torrential rains (>100mm), associated with a tropical depression, impacted the northern coastline of Honduras, the Izabal department of Guatemala and Belize. Elsewhere in Guatemala, light rains provided relief from recent wetter-than-average conditions that had caused localized flooding and landslides during the past month.
For the next week, an increase in precipitation is expected across northern Central America as a developing tropical depression is expected to impacts areas along the Bay of Campeche at the beginning of the period. This will increase rains and flooding risks across portions of northwestern Guatemala. Farther south, east to west winds through the southern Caribbean are likely to enhance rainfall along the Caribbean coastlines of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the Gracias a Dios department of Honduras. The rains will continue to help reduce seasonal rainfall deficits in Nicaragua.
Seven-Day Rainfall Forecast (mm) June 19 – June 26, 2013
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
