Hele tekst
To do
1. Download and process CFSv2 SCP from July to December 2. Based on GEFS method done by Hui wang
Forecast SW (LSR3) with the linear regression model - Using GEFS predicted SCP as a predictor
o Forecasts from January to June
o Forecast skill assessed based on cross-validation
• Anomaly correlation
• Hit rate (3 categories, 33% each)
CFSv2
Doing the same for Wee1 to Week4
Do the same for Wee1 to Week4
GEFS SCP
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A linear regression model is developed to forecast the number of severe weather (LSR3) using the GEFS predicted SCP as a predictor and based on their relationship depicted in
It uses the dynamical model (GEFS) predicted SCP as a predictor, and then forecast severe weather (LSR3) based on the statistical relationship between model SCP and actual LSR3
It uses the dynamical model (GEFS and CFSv2) predicted SCP as a predictor, and then forecasts severe weather (LSR3) based on the statistical relationship between model SCP
A hybrid model is developed to forecast the number of severe weather (LSR3) using the GEFS predicted week-2 SCP as a predictor and based on their relationships depicted in either
A hybrid model is developed to forecast the number of severe weather (LSR3) using the GEFS predicted week-2 SCP as a predictor and based on their relationships depicted in either
The forecast tool developed in this project is a dynamical-statistical model, which uses the dynamical model (GEFS or CFSv2) predicted week-2 SCP as a predictor, and then
One-day difference between the 7 days for week 1 and
