Skill of the 5-day Forecast for 2007
5-day forecasts, 4xdaily, 365 day
ALL vs. noTAO
Anomaly w.r.t 30-year 6-hr climatology (R2, 1981–2010)
Day Day ALL (global)
noTAO (global) ALL (TPcf) noTAO (TPcf)
Global: AC calculated over all grid points TPcf: AC calculated over tropical Pacific domain (150oE–90oW, 20oS–20oN)
Tropical Pacific domain
Tropical Pacific domain
Systematic errors in the R2 model:
A comparison between first guess (ft06) and BUFR OBS (A topic suggested by Wesley)
OBS: AIRCFT and AIRCAR
Variables: T, U, V between 200 and 300 hPa
Mean bias averaged over 3 years (2004, 2005, 2006)
Purposes
Global and regional evaluation of the R2 model
Understand model errors in mean state and variability
Improve model representations of the related physical processes (convection, clouds, radiation, precipitation)
Large number of OBS over the US
Overall cold bias over the US
Positive bias over the central US
Positive bias over the western US