National Centers for
Environmental Prediction:
An Overview
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director
1 February 11, 2011
Climate Services Program Managers Meeting
2
Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service
Space Weather Prediction Center
National Hurricane
Center
3
Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Respond &
Feedback Respond &
Feedback
NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
IBM Supercomputer
Gaithersburg, MD DistributeDistribute
Observe Observe
Products & Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource
Planning, Transportation, Health organizations
(CDC…)
NCEP
Feedback
- Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict
Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models
Central Guidance
Central
Guidance Local
Offices Local Offices
4
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to
produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
Space Weather Prediction Center
NCEP Central Operations
Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center
5 5
46 FTE 26 FTE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts
• EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• CPC Climate Test Bed
• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed
• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed
• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA
• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed
• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
Test Beds
Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community
6
7
What Does NCEP Do?
- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation - Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
“From the Sun to the Sea”
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
• Climate Seasonal Forecasts
• El Nino – La Nina Forecast
• Weather Forecasts to Day 7
• Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)
• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings
• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
7
8
Climate/Weather Linkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty
Minutes Minutes
Hours Hours
DaysDays 1 Week 1 Week
2 Week 2 Week
Months Months
Seasons Seasons
Years Years
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
Forecast Lead TimeForecast Lead Time
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert Coordination Coordination Watches Watches Forecasts Forecasts Threats Assessments
Guidance Guidance Outlook Outlook
Benefits
TPC OPC
HPC
SWPC AWC
SPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8
:
NDFD, Days 4 -7 6-10 Day Forecast
MaritimeMaritimeMaritimeMaritime
Life & PropertyLife & PropertyLife & PropertyLife & Property Space OperationsSpace OperationsSpace OperationsSpace Operations RecreationRecreationRecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystemEcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironment
Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture
Reservoir ControlReservoir ControlReservoir ControlReservoir Control Energy PlanningEnergy PlanningEnergy PlanningEnergy Planning
CommerceCommerceCommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropowerHydropowerHydropower
Fire WeatherFire WeatherFire WeatherFire Weather HealthHealthHealthHealth
AviationAviationAviationAviation
Seasonal Predictions
Climate/Weather Linkage
Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty Forecast Forecast Uncertainty Uncertainty
Minutes Minutes
Hours Hours
DaysDays 1 Week 1 Week
2 Week 2 Week
Months Months
Seasons Seasons
Years Years
NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System
Forecast Lead TimeForecast Lead Time
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert Coordination Coordination Watches Watches Forecasts Forecasts Threats Assessments
Guidance Guidance Outlook Outlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System
North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF
NCEP Model Perspective
MaritimeMaritimeMaritimeMaritime
Life & PropertyLife & PropertyLife & PropertyLife & Property Space OperationsSpace OperationsSpace OperationsSpace Operations RecreationRecreationRecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystemEcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironment
Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture
Reservoir ControlReservoir ControlReservoir ControlReservoir Control Energy PlanningEnergy PlanningEnergy PlanningEnergy Planning
CommerceCommerceCommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropowerHydropowerHydropower
Fire WeatherFire WeatherFire WeatherFire Weather HealthHealthHealthHealth
AviationAviationAviationAviation
10
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAM
WRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane
GFDL HWRF
Global Forecast
System
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Fo re ca st
Severe Weather
Rapid Update for Aviation
Climate CFS
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
MOM3
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global Data Assimilation
Oceans
HYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
10
Regional DA
Regional DA
Satellites + Radar 99.9%
3.5B Obs/Day
Land Ocean
• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems
• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers
Atmosphere
Cryosphere
Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth
“Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models
11
Computing Capability
Number of Hits (Millions)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
“reliable, timely and accurate”
• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete
– Declared operational August 12, 2009
– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec – Factor of 4 increase over the
IBM Power5
– 156 POWER6 32-way nodes – 4,992 processors
– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space – 3.5 billion observations/day – 27.8 million model fields/day
• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD
• Backup: Fairmont, WV
– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes
– Web access to models as they run on the CCS
2010
Example of Forecast Metric
13
14
Record Scores
Record
Improvement
Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means
F or ec as t d ay
8.02d
17
18
19 2010
(preliminary)
20
Forces for Change
Model Region 1
Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite
– SREF – NAEFS
– Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP)
• Entering the JPSS era
– More rapid access to hyperspectral data
– GPS soundings
– Higher resolution surface radiance data
• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate – Coupled
– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro,
climate and ecosystems applications
Attribute Operational Configuration Q2FY11 Configuration
Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km
Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds
100 km/64 levels Variable CO2
AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water
Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag
Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S
1/3 x 1 deg.
Assim depth 750 m
MOM-4 fully global
¼ x ½ deg.
Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model
(LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM
No separate land data assim
4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip
Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice
Coupling Daily 30 minutes
Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995
analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background
Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)
124/month (week 3-6)
Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade
for Q2FY11
22
National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3 12 km
4 km 6 km
3 km
3 km 1.5 km
1.33 km
Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB
-- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)
Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs
Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs
IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs
23
EUROSIP Update
• MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo- France, UKMet)
• The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and
STRATUS (in restricted access directories)
• CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP
23
Ecosystem Prediction
Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. 24 quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007
• Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora
quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay
• Generated since 2002
• Important for water
management and recreational purposes
* Research initiated, developed and
results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers
Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay
Current Demonstration Ready for Transition*
Climate and Health in Africa
• Collaborate with NMHS Burkina Faso on predicting meningitis outbreaks
– Target countries: Burkina Faso, Niger – Preliminary results suggest NCEP
reanalysis can be used to predict epidemic outbreaks
• Collaborate with UMD on
predicting water-borne diseases
– Target countries: Angola, Cameroon, Mozambique, Senegal
– Preliminary results suggest role of SST and rainfall in triggering an epidemic disease
– Rainfall increase of 277 mm in 7 days, 15-22 Aug 2005
– Cholera outbreak peaks about 30 days later.
Observed and Predicted Meningitis Incidence Rate in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina Faso
Base Period: 1968-2005
Observed rainfall (blue) and cholera data (red) Case of Dakar, Senegal
Yaka et al., 2008
25
26
Summary
• NCEP is
– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”
– Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events
– Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach
– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations”
process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery
– Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research,
transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities
26
Appendix
27
• The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete.
• In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover
“damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without
prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal;
resolution of this appeal is pending.
• In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In
November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction.
• In December 2010, the Receiver filed a motion to petition the Federal Court to transfer the pending Federal appeal to the County Court. Once
transferred, the Receiver can ask that the claim be dismissed with prejudice, after which construction can resume promptly.
• GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of
construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012.
28
