Climate Prediction Center’s Central Asia Hazards Outlook January 12 - 18, 2017
Temperatures:
Above-normal temperatures prevailed across Central Asia during the first week of 2017 with the largest positive anomalies (7 to 10 degrees C) observed across northern Kazakhstan. The GFS model indicates that below-normal temperatures will return to northern and eastern Kazakhstan during mid-January. Minimum temperatures are forecast to range from -30 to -25 degrees C across these areas.
Precipitation
According to gauges and satellite estimates, widespread precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) occurred across the northern two-thirds of Afghanistan and Tajikistan from January 1 to 7. Despite this recent precipitation, the abnormal dryness hazard is posted for much of Afghanistan based on continued below-average snow water equivalent values throughout the basins of Afghanistan.
During the next week, the GFS model indicates little to no precipitation across the entire region. Therefore, concerns for developing drought are increasing across Afghanistan due to a lack of adequate snowfall.
Note: The Hazards outlook map is based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week), and assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
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