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– March 6, 2013 Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET February 28

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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET

February 28 – March 6, 2013

An increase in rainfall is expected across Central America during the next week.

1) Well below-average rains during December and January have reduced water availability and impacted crops and hydroelectric plants across the Atlantic basin of Costa Rica. The forecast increased rain during the next week could help to reduce moisture deficits in the region.

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MFEWS is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The MFEWS weather hazards outlook process and products include participation by MFEWS field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries such as, INETER of Nicaragua, Meteorological Service of Honduras, IMN of Costa Rica, INSIVUMEH of Guatemala, ETESA of Panama, NMS of Belize and SNET of El Salvador. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424. Questions about the USAID MFEWS activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for MFEWS, 1-202-219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.

Dry weather observed across Central America.

During the past seven days, dry weather prevailed throughout much of the interior of Central America. The heaviest rain fell along the Caribbean Basin of Costa Rica, while suppressed rain was observed elsewhere. The reduced rain since the beginning of the season has led to drier soil that is favorable for forest fire across many local areas of Central America. In Guatemala, forest fires have damaged up to 650 hectares of forest, most of which have occurred over the Jalapa and Baja Verapaz departments, according to the Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (CONRED). River water levels have also decreased significantly over Guatemala, potentially impacting drinking water and crops. Over the southern Caribbean, dryness has occurred from insufficient rain throughout the current month, already negatively impacted the central and eastern parts of Costa Rica. A gradual increase in rainfall is expected over the next few weeks, which should help to alleviate accumulated deficits in the region.

During the next week, an increase in rainfall is expected across Central America as a frontal system is forecast to bring moderate to locally heavy rain over northern Central America, including the northern half of Guatemala and northern coastlines of Honduras. Farther south, prevailing easterly winds and anomalous low-level convergence are expected to enhance rainfall throughout Costa Rica and Panama. Meanwhile, seasonably little to no rainfall is expected to continue across much of the inland of the region during the next week.

Seven-Day Rainfall Forecast (mm) 00Z February 27 – 00Z March 6, 2013

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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