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Table I. Baseline characteristics at completion of the fertility workup

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Table I. Baseline characteristics at completion of the fertility workup

n = 1203 Mean or n 5th – 95

th

percentile or %

Female age, in years 33.3 25 - 41

Duration of subfertility, in years 2.7 1.3 - 5.6

Primary female subfertility 697 58%

Percentage of progressive motile sperm 51 24 - 76

Referral by secondary care 84 7%

Table II. Calibration of the dynamic prediction model by risk groups: mean and maximum of the absolute differences (in percentage points) between predicted and observed one year natural conception rates per risk group of n=135, stratified by the elapsed period of expectant management (EM)

Mean difference Max difference Number of risk groups

After completion of workup 3.2 9.6 9

After half a year EM 3.0 4.7 7

After one year EM 2.1 3.5 5

After one and a half years EM 2.7 4.5 4

Total 2.8 9.6 25

(2)

Figure 1. Flow chart

5466 couples registered between 1998 and 2011 in the Aberdeen

Fertility Clinic

Women excluded with diagnoses other than unexplained subfertility (n=3945)

1521 couples with unexplained subfertility

Couples that did not provide consent for treatment data to be used for research (n=10)

Couples conceived before completion of fertility workup (n=234) Couples excluded with missing outcome data (n=8) Couples excluded with missing predictor values (n=39) Couples excluded that were followed for less than one cycle of

expectant management (n=6)

Couples with a duration of subfertility of 50 weeks or less (n=21)

1203 couples in the final analysis

(3)

Figure 2. Cumulative chances of natural conception leading to ongoing pregnancy.

Cumulative chances after completion of fertility workup (upper panel) and updated chances of natural conception over the course of 1 year at completion of the fertility workup or 0.5 years, 1 year and 1.5 years thereafter (lower panel) in the validation cohort.

Percentages are Kaplan-Meier estimates of the observed fraction of natural

conception leading to ongoing pregnancy.

(4)

Figure 3 Calibration of the predictions of the dynamic prediction model: predicted

versus observed 1 year natural conception rates at four fixed time points.

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Table I. Baseline characteristics n=602 Mean or n 5th – 95

Estimated cumulative natural conception rate leading to ongoing pregnancy after 12 months of sexual intercourse derived from the Cox model.. The leap in the model was due