Reaching the tipping point in online communities: using connectors, mavens and salesmen

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Reaching the tipping point in online communities:

using connectors, mavens and salesmen

By Wouter Wiersma, s2401371

22-06-2015

Msc Small Business and Entrepreneurship University of Groningen

Supervisor: prof. dr. ir. J.M.L. van Engelen Second supervisor: dr. G.T.J. Zwart Word count (excluding references): 12.640

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Content

Abstract ... 3

Introduction ... 4

Theoretical framework ... 7

Method Section ... 14

Results ... 19

Conclusions ... 31

Discussion ... 34

Limitations and further research ... 37

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3

Abstract

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4 “These often evolve unobtrusively by offering small tibits, one at a time, until – suddenly – a tipping

point is reached, then bang! (Gummesson, Lusch, & Vargo, 2010: 10)”.

Introduction

“A butterfly flapping his wings can result in a hurricane several weeks later” (Lorenz, 1963). This statement is based on Lorenz’s lifework where he stated that certain experiments are impossible to reproduce. In relation with the business world, business should fight complexity with complexity (Nijs, 2014). This is due to a world where business has to deal with increasing complexity, but also because customer relations are becoming more and more important (Nijs, 2014). In her thesis (Nijs, 2014) introduces the model “Stairway to Heaven” in order to cope with growing complexity nowadays. Collective creativity can play an important role in the environment of growing complexity. In this new world view another role is not only reserved but also claimed for the customer in whom he plays an interactive role in the involvement of innovation. This changing role of the relation with customers, but also other stakeholders in the process of value creation (Nijs, 2014) calls Imagineering. Despite the information (Nijs, 2014) provided in her thesis, there are many concepts which are not investigated yet. This is mainly because of the infancy of the model. The article of (Prahalad & Ramaswamy, 2004) suggests that a customer is becoming an important partner in creating value, and that they need to learn how to harness and influence customer competences. (Nijs, 2014) provides a model how business can deal with the increased importance of customers nowadays. A way to deal with the increased importance of customers is by providing a platform where customers can participate in a dialogue. In the literature researchers refer to this phenomenon as collective creativity (Nijs, 2014; Prahalad & Ramaswamy, 2004). The idea of co-creation of (Nijs, 2014) has provided some leading examples. One of them refers to the city of Antwerp, which found itself in a downward spiral. The major problem rested in the lack of a future direction due to fragmented policy and structures. By reframing the city’s logic with the narrative “’t Stad is van Iedereen”, introduced a new way of thinking which eventually led to a new identity of the city Antwerp and winning the Financial Times award for best small city in 2011.

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5 be influence in some way. This paper tries to add to the model of (Nijs, 2014) how these chaotic processes can be influenced, by mobilizing specific individuals and their influence concerning the tipping point. Therefore, the literature fields regarding co-creation of (Nijs, 2014) and the tipping point (Gladwell, 2001; Rogers, 2003) will be combined.

In order to co-create value with customers (Prahalad & Ramaswamy, 2004), business should interact with their customers (Sawhney, Verona, & Prandelli, 2005). The internet can serve as a platform to engage with customers to co-create value. Online communities in specific, can play an important role to tap into customer knowledge through an ongoing dialogue (Sawhney et al., 2005). The mechanism of an ongoing dialogue can be attained if a dialogue reaches a tipping point, whereupon it can become self-sustaining. The tipping point is the point where adoption of an innovation, or in this case the participation in a dialogue, rapidly increases (Rogers, 2003); it is not a linear process. (Gladwell, 2001) describes three types of individuals who are crucial for reaching this tipping point; the connectors, the mavens and the salesmen. Those individuals are capable of starting social epidemics: “All you have to do is find them (p. 132)”. If firms are capable of tracing these three types of individuals and mobilize them to become active in a community, a dialogue can become self-sustaining. Another advantage for business is the relative low cost of identifying and convincing a few influential individual in order to hit the critical mass (Cha, Haddai, Benevenuto, & Gummadi, 2010). (Nijs, 2014) states that organizations can influence the self-organizing way. In order to do so, this paper will explain how certain actors can be identified and clarify in which manner these actors influence a community. This all, in order to reach the self-organized criticality, as described by (Nijs, 2014). This paper claim that the process towards this self-organized criticality can be fostered by identifying and mobilizing connectors, mavens and salesmen in a community. Most historic papers focus on how to target these individuals in other segments such as the blogosphere (Budak, Agrawal, & Abbadi, 2010) or health settings (Boster, Kotowski, Andrews, & Serota, 2011) but do not focus on how these individuals influence the process towards a tipping point in a generative dialogue, especially in the model of (Nijs, 2014). This is an underexposed field in co-creation, and therefore a reason to investigate in this paper.

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6 In order to answer this research question, the following sub questions are formulated:

 What is the tipping point and does reaching this tipping point lead to a self-sustaining dialogue?

 What are the characteristics of the three types of individuals which have to be mobilized in order to reach the tipping point?

 How can these types of individuals be identified in a community?

 In which manner do these different actors influence the process towards reaching the tipping point?

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Theoretical framework

In order to answer the research question, this paragraph provides a clear description of the different concepts which are central in this paper. Firstly, online innovation communities will be elaborated on basis of existing literature. Subsequently the model of (Nijs, 2014) “Stairway to Heaven”, and the role of specific individuals in this model will be introduced and further explained. Afterwards the diffusion of innovation by (Rogers, 2003) is shortly mentioned in relation to the process of how diffusion of a narrative evolves. (Rogers, 2003) mentions a certain tipping point in the diffusion of an innovation, where the adoption of an innovation is rapid increasing. This research paper will investigate how to reach this tipping point in an online community which eventually will lead to a self-sustaining dialogue. The tipping point will be elaborated in depth, in relation with the book of (Gladwell, 2001) on how to reach the critical mass. (Gladwell, 2001) stresses the law of the few in which three groups of individuals are extremely important; the connectors, the mavens and the salesmen. Those three groups will be described, followed by propositions in relation with the tipping point and the connectors, the mavens, and the salesmen.

Online communities

Creativity emerges from the conflicts and interaction of a diverse individuals and ideas rather than from the mind of one specific individual. Therefore collective creativity needs a platform where individuals can interact with each other in order to become creative. A platform which enables the process of collective creativity is the internet. (Nijs, 2014) states that the internet is a significant mediating infrastructure in this kind of processes and that this infrastructure is catalyzing collective creativity in new ways. Online communities, often referred as virtual communities, are a platform for collective creativity on the internet. (Chan & Lee, 2004) name five different types of online communities; virtual community customer community, beta testing volunteer corps, user content collaboration innovation community, user development community and the user product collaboration innovation community. In this study we focus on the virtual customer community, or virtual innovation community, which is a virtual community composed mainly of customers who had experience using products or services (Chan & Lee, 2004). (Preece, 2000) defines virtual communities as “groups of people who use communication technologies for repeated social interaction to meet certain needs”. Virtual communities bring users together with common interests and in online conversations individuals will share their experiences with those they can identify themselves with (Hagel & Amstrong, 1997). This is supported by (Shapiro & Varian, 2013) who state that a virtual internet community is a powerful innovative organizational resource, which is created by the collection of individuals who are likely-minded. The most relevant argument for business to use virtual communities as platform lies in the fact that firms can reach their customers in a much broader, faster en richer way (Sawhney et al., 2005).

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8 serve as a powerful instrument for firms in the process of attaining the tipping point. Additionally, firms can look into an online community and can also steer in the process towards a self-sustaining dialogue. In the next section, the fundamental mechanisms of the model of (Nijs, 2014) will be elaborated.

Stairway to Heaven

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9 The dialogue which is intended by an organization, is central in the model of (Nijs, 2014). A generative dialogue emerges as individuals start to see new possibilities in a strategic (more desirable) direction in a collective manner, which will lead to co-creation (Nijs, 2014). Co-creation relates to combining new and useful ideas/ways with existing elements, to create new creative solutions to challenges (George, 2007). In order to achieve a generative dialogue, (Nijs, 2013: 20) stresses the importance of leaders (and artifacts) in her thesis:

“Even while dialogues are the generative mechanism of the ‘self-organizing logic’ of emergence, these mechanisms are less self-organizing then they might sound. They are most probably always initiated by leaders, sometimes unconsciously, or they are initiated by artifacts or both”. (...) “Whether using leaders or artifacts or both, design is definitely needed to evoke the dialogues that can steer the transformative interactions in the strategically more wanted direction. Without design, without framing and the dialogues this framing evokes, no organization transformation will be realized”.

In order to cause a generative dialogue, leaders are of great importance in a community. Therefore an organization can influence those leaders in a community, for realizing a generative dialogue. (Gupta, Mela, & Vidal-sanz, 2009) support this idea as they state that an organization want to invest more resources if customers are identified as leaders, and influence the acquisition of customers, even when they may not be profitable for themselves. These leaders do exist in communities, and therefore firms need to locate these leaders and mobilize them in a community to attain a tipping point. In the next section, the literature field regarding the tipping point and the different type of leaders which influence this tipping point will be elaborated.

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10 Tipping point or critical mass

According to (Nijs, 2014) a dialogue needs a broad diversity of thoughts, to transform a dialogue into a generative dialogue. In order to achieve a broad diversity of thoughts, it is essential to reach a tipping point. The point where the rate of adoption rapidly grows (Rogers, 2003). (Gladwell, 2001) emphasizes in his book “The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference” three pillars to tip an epidemic; the law of the few, the stickiness factor and the power of the context. This paper argues that a dialogue can be influenced to mobilize certain actors in a community. Those type of leaders influence the process towards the tipping point, which is explained by (Rogers, 2003) as the rate of adoption which has to increase in order to hit the critical mass. Therefore, the focus in this paper will be on the pillar “the law of the few”, in which (Gladwell, 2001) names three types of individuals which influence the process towards the tipping point; the connectors, the mavens and the salesmen.

(Gladwell, 2001: 9) defines the tipping point as “that one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once”. (Rogers, 2003) has a specific view on the tipping point and relates this to the domino effect; adoption becomes a necessity as the implementation of an innovation by early adopters results in social and/or economic benefits. Furthermore, according to (Rogers, 2003) this tipping point occurs when a diffusion threshold between 10 and 20 per cent has been reached. When the tipping point is attained, the rate of adoption will rapidly grow, and after this point the adoption becomes self-sustaining. The practical part of the tipping point is that it is applicable in multiple disciplines. (Schelling, 1978: 89) supports this idea as he states “The principle of ‘critical mass’ is so simple that it is no wonder that it shows up in epidemiology, fashion, survival and extinction of species, language systems, racial integration, jaywalking, panic behaviour, and political movements”.

The other concept concerning the tipping point which is emphasized by (Rogers, 2003), relates to network externalities. Network externalities refer to the fact that a product or service becomes more valuable to individuals as the rate of adaptation increases (Mahler & Rogers, 1999). A lack of network externalities will slack up the rate of adoption. On the other hand, when the number of adaptation reaches the critical mass, the users in a system will create a sense that ‘everybody’s doing it”, which will speed up the rate of adaptation. In order to investigate a tipping point in a community and if this leads to a self-sustaining dialogue, the following propositions are proposed:

Proposition 1a: In online communities exists a point where the rate of participation rapidly increases; the tipping point.

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11 Three different types of early adopters

(Nijs, 2014) argues that a dialogue can be influenced, where (Gladwell, 2001) distinguish three different types of individuals which have to be identified and mobilized in order to hit the tipping point. Therefore, this paper tries to identify and clarify the role of the three different types of individual according to (Gladwell, 2001) in order to influence the dialogue on a favourable way. The connector

The first individual which plays an important and necessary role in reaching the tipping point according to (Gladwell, 2001) are the connectors. Connectors are characterized by the fact that they know a broad scale of different people. Those people are master in making friends and acquaintances, are acting in several social circles and have the skills to span those different worlds. A typical connector is interested, self-confident and social. (Granovetter, 1973) points out in his study that people often get their jobs through weak ties; the acquaintances of people. The reason behind this lies in the fact that weak ties are a source for new information and new ideas, because a person does not act in the same world as their acquaintances. (Granovetter, 1973) even states that the more acquaintances a person has, the more powerful he is, which he has called in a majestic way: the strength of weak ties.

(Chuah, 2009) investigated the usefulness of utilizing connector nodes information in human contact-based networks. The author presents techniques how to identify a connector in a community and the nodes that the connector can reach. These nodes are essential due to the fact that an individual can surpass information by nodes. The role of weak ties is fundamental in this process, which is supported by (Granovetter, 1973) who states: “No strong tie is a bridge (p. 1364)” Furthermore the role of connectors in communities is investigated (Nichani & Hung, 2002). They propose that a graph of relationships in a community (social network analysis) would result in high density for connectors, mavens, and salesmen. So they state the presence of connectors (as well mavens and salesmen) is necessary for a community to grow in reach and engagement. Due to fact that they make friends and acquaintances easily, the capability of a connector in bridging ties, and that they are active in different subcultures shows us the importance of a connector in the process towards the tipping point.

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12 which eventually leads to reaching a tipping point in participation. Furthermore, an individual who executes the role of a connector will lead to a closer connection between people whereby individuals are more likely to participate (Kotowski & dos Santos, 2010). (Goodman et al., 1998) state that the sense of being connected leads to participation and active membership in communities. Therefore, if a connector becomes active in a online community in the sense of bridging nodes, which results in a more connected community the participation in a community increases. Eventually, this will lead to reaching the tipping point in a dialogue. The presence of only a connector in a community is not a sufficient condition for reaching the tipping point, in other words also mavens and salesmen are necessary to reach the tipping point in a community. So, the following proposition is proposed:

Proposition 2: A connector who becomes active in a community, in the sense of bridging nodes, is a necessary (but not in itself a sufficient) condition for reaching the tipping point.

The maven

The word maven finds its origin in Yiddish, which means a person who accumulates knowledge. “Mavens are people who connect other people with information” (Gladwell, 2001: 67). Mavens have an urge to collect information and are willing to share this information with other individual. (Gladwell, 2001: 67) states “The fact that Mavens want to help, for no other reason that they like to help, turns out to be an awfully effective way of getting someone’s attention”. (Feick & Price, 1987: 85) define them as “Individuals who have information about many kinds of products, places to shop, and other facets of markets, and initiate discussions with consumers and respond to requests from consumers for market information”. To deal with rapid changes nowadays, information possessed by mavens could be seen as a distinctive resource.

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13 These three characteristics influence other people in a community in the sense to participate, which enhance the rate of interaction on a specific topic. Therefore, mavens are of extreme importance in a community in order to hit the critical mass in a dialogue. But, the presence of only a maven in a community is not a sufficient condition for reaching the tipping point, as it needs connectors and salesmen. This leads to the following proposition:

Proposition 3: A maven who becomes active in a community, in the sense of sharing information or helping others, is a necessary (but not in itself a sufficient condition) for reaching the tipping point.

The salesmen

(Gladwell, 2001) propose a third actor which is essential in reaching the tipping point; the salesmen. Those kinds of individuals can persuade someone when they are undecided. (Gladwell, 2001: 85) states: “Salesmen are very good at expressing emotions and feelings, which means that they are far more emotionally contagious than the rest of us”. This is probably the reason why salesmen have a high influence in the decision making process of individuals. Because salesman talk with people in a very articulated and eloquent way, it will activate other individuals. Hence, a salesman is crucial in convincing an individual to do something.

The way (Gladwell, 2001) describes salesmen, they can be characterized as persuasive people. (Boster et al., 2011) state persuasive people are able to conceive and express their positions on issues from multiple points of view and are able to convince others to see their side of the issue. They are “highly argumentative and effective debaters (p. 181)”. Furthermore, persuasive people have a great feeling for understanding people, which improves someone’s suasory capability, particularly if the reason of someone’s opinion is understood (Hullett & Boster, 2001). (McLure Wasko & Faraj, 2000) state that discussing and debating enables mechanisms that support posting and responding to opinions. This is supported by (Koh, Kim, Butler, & Bock, 2007) which state that most activity takes place as a result of posting questions or information. If individuals with these capabilities become active in a community, they will mobilize other individuals to react on them. This results to more participation in a dialogue, which eventually leads to reaching a tipping point of participation. Although, a salesman is from huge importance for reaching the tipping point, it is not a sufficient condition for reaching the tipping point. Therefore the following proposition is proposed:

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Method Section

As mentioned before, this paper tries to seek for a comprehensive understanding to foster the tipping point in a community in order to make the generative dialogue self-sustaining. In this section, the method of investigating will be elaborated in depth. After that the method of data collection will be elaborated and finally an explanation will be given about the analysis of these data.

Research design

This research aims for finding a comprehensive understanding concerning how to foster the tipping point in an online community, and tries to contribute to the model of (Nijs, 2014) by giving grips of making a dialogue generative. The main purpose of this paper is to generate knowledge, due to the very limited addressing of this subject in existing literature, theory development is the most appropriate research design (van Aken, Berends, & van der Bij, 2012).

In this research, the knowledge object is extracted from online communities, where the development of knowledge finds itself in an early stage. Consequently, the use of a case study in an online community has to lead to find evidence for the propositions made earlier in this thesis. This case study needs to be conducted for empirical interrogation, looking at the nature of the propositions. To take in mind the accessible options, it requires an existing community in which access is allowed to investigate certain patterns. This will lead to a more comprehensive answer to the research question. The type of research for this survey will be a social network analysis in combination with analysis of posts in the community. Social network analysis are ideal for describing behaviour of certain individuals in a community and because to measure those patterns in a quantitative and qualitative manner. The analysis imply a partial interpretive research design in combination with content analysis to capture behaviours and relations in a community (Gleave & Welser, 2009). According to (Walsham, 2006) interpretive methods are useful to identify social roles and to understand motivations of participants. Interpretive research methods are found to neglect social structures in which these behaviours occur. In relation with the proposed propositions in this paper, these social structures are a suitable way for investigating the behaviours of individuals in online communities. Therefore, a social network analysis will be conducted because integrating these two approaches makes it possible for the identification of the social roles that are significant at the interaction level (Gleave & Welser, 2009). Data collection and analysis

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15 Case: Wijmantelzorgers.nl

One of the communities of PUO is Wijmantelzorgers.nl, which is a platform where members can come together and share their experiences, thoughts and problem concerning informal care. Due to government cutbacks the society has to take care of mutual care, which is called “mantelzorg” or informal care. The community of informal care has started to enhance the loyalty among the customers of PUO and to give informal caretakers a platform to interact with other caretakers. The community has around 60-70 participants at this moment, which include a few highly active members. Most topics are initiated by the community manager of PUO, but also are some topics initiated by members. It requires an account to respond or create a topic, but without an account it is possible to view the community.

Because this community has a relative high level of interaction, we try to find an answer on how the community has reached a tipping point in the dialogue. This will be done by the identification of the three types of users; the connectors, the mavens, and the salesmen. This is essential for providing answers on the propositions made in this paper. After the identification of these types as such, the influence of these actors on the tipping point can be determined. Analyzing different dialogues in communities will provide a broader insight and a more concise conclusion. Furthermore, a social network analysis will be conducted in this community in order to find patterns between the users in the community. Each user in the community is represented by a number along the axes of a matrix. The names which were used by the users in the community are recoded into nodes, due to privacy reasons. All the interactions in the community regarding informal care of PUO will be analyzed. Each actor plays a role in posting, reacting and liking other posts in this community. This will be done in order to provide a clear overview of the interaction in a community which will result in a sociogram. This sociogram will represent the strength of a tie and the direction of a tie among participants in the community. The rules which are used for determining interaction are included in table 1.

Action Categorized as

Reacting on a forum A tie towards the initiator of the topic Mentioning someone’s name A tie towards the name mentioned in a post Quoting someone’s post A tie towards the person which post is quoted

Table 1: Rules for interaction

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16 determines their meaning, translation of these posts has been found irrelevant in consultation with the supervisor of this thesis.

Concepts

In order to conduct a proper research, each variable will be operationalized next. The central concepts in this paper are the tipping point, the connectors, the mavens and the salesmen.

Tipping point

The definition of (Rogers, 2003) regarding the tipping point will be used in order to determine a tipping point in a community. (Rogers, 2003) defines the tipping point, or hitting the critical mass, as the point where the rate of adoption, in this case participation, rapidly increases. The number of posts in a community will be analyzed to find the point where the rate of participation (posts) rapidly increases. According to (Page & Lamberson, 2012) does a tipping point occur if a small change in the value of x has large effects on the end state, concluding there can be seen a kink in the rate of participation.

Furthermore, (Rogers, 2003) states that diffusion leads to self-sustaining, which means that the fittest members of a community have self-organized and adopted the innovation. Related to the model of (Nijs, 2014) this implies that a dialogue becomes self-sustaining. This is operationalized as the community leaders of the organization PUO do not have to interfere in the dialogue and the rate of participation does still increase.

Connectors

(Hullett & Boster, 2001) use a tool for identifying connectors. These indicators are being used and transformed into suitable indicators in the informal care sector. So, the identification of a connector in a community can be conducted by examining these indicators on the posts in a community. In table 2 the four indicators of identifying a connector are presented. If there can be given an example of all four items of a participant in a community, this person can be characterized as a connector.

Connector item

This person is often the link between participants in different communities. This person is often introducing people to each other.

This person tries to bring people together when they find the same subject interesting.

This person is often the connection between people who would not otherwise know one another.

Table 2: Indicators for connectors

Mavens

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17 of identifying a maven are presented. If there can be given an example of all four items of a participant in a community, this person can be characterized as a maven.

Maven item

This person finds it important to share information with others regarding informal care. This person is willing to help if someone is seeking for an issue regarding informal care. People often seek for this person regarding questions about informal care.

This person liked to be aware of the most up-to-date informal care information in order to share with others when it is relevant.

Table 3: Indicators for mavens

Salesmen

In order to identify a salesman in a community, the indicators of (Boster et al., 2011) will be used. The indicators of (Boster et al., 2011) are converted into appropriate indicators related to informal care. These indicators will be examined on the posts in a community, as will be done by connectors and mavens. The four indicators of identifying a salesman are presented in table 4. A person can be characterized as a salesman if there can be given an example of all four items of a participant in a community.

Salesman item

This person is good at thinking of multiple ways to explain an issue related to informal care. In a discussion, this person is able to make others see it from his/her side of the issue. This person can easily offer multiple perspectives on an issue related to informal care.

This person is often able to convince others of his position in a discussion related to informal care.

Table 4: Indicators for salesmen

The possibility exists that an individual qualifies itself as more than one archetype. In this case, the role of both archetypes this person is playing will be analyzed.

Controllability

A precondition for reliability and validity is controllability (van Aken et al., 2012). This research design will describe every step that will be taken, so that other researchers can replicate the study and in order to conduct a controllable research.

Reliability

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18 from communities, as it will be analyzed by performing a social network analysis. To overcome the respondent bias, multiple posts and posts in different topics of a participant will be analyzed. Also the circumstance bias is controlled, by looking into different topics and communities that engage in the co-creation process. This research has strong time constraints which will result in unavoidable restrictions. Nevertheless, the available time will be used to provide an extensive foundation for the proposed propositions and research question.

Validity

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Results

The aim of this research is to provide a better understanding how certain individuals influence the process towards a tipping point in a community. There are four main concepts in this process: the tipping point, the connector, the maven and the salesman, as been discussed in the previous chapters. In order to give an answer on how to reach the tipping point, all four concepts are investigated and presented in this section. All data is analyzed from a community and discussed from different perspectives. The results will be discussed in line with the propositions made earlier in this paper, without giving conclusions already.

Social Network Analysis

A sociogram is developed in order to provide a clear overview of the interactions in the community. All these interaction are processed in an excel sheet, where the direction of the interaction is not important because the strength of these ties and the number of ties of an individual need to be investigated. This results all in the following social network analysis (figure 2) of the community regarding informal care at PUO.

Red = Connectors Yellow = Salesmen

Green = Mavens Blue = Other participants in community

Proposition 1a and 1b

The propositions made in the theoretical framework regarding the tipping point are:

Proposition 1a: In a community there exists a point where the rate of participation rapidly increases. Proposition 1b: Hitting the tipping point in a community will lead to a self-sustaining dialogue.

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20 All posts in the community are investigated and determined in which week they were posted in order to draw conclusions on the propositions concerning the tipping point. The number of posts in each week in the community is presented in graph 1. The first post in the community was on the 18th of January, thus in week 3. This information is essential to determine a tipping point in the community, that point where the rate of adoption rapidly increases (Rogers, 2003). When we look at graph 1, there are three points where this rate of rapidly increases; in week 7/8, week 12/13 and week 19-21. The first tipping point is related to the appearance of just one topic: “Wat willen we bereiken met Wijmantelzorgers” . Participation in five different topics is observed during the second tipping point and a total of nine different topics are detected concerning the third tipping point.

Graph 1: Number of posts

In the diagram below the number of posts in different topics are presented. This data can be compared with graph 2, in the sense that we can see a broader variety in posts among topics when the rate of participation increases.

Graph 2: Posts in different topics

0 5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Number of posts

Posts 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Posts in different topics

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21 The second proposition regarding the tipping point refers to the point where a dialogue becomes self-sustaining. According to (Rogers, 2003) something becomes self-sustaining after it has reached a tipping point. Three points where the rate of participation rapidly increased are determined as researched in the previous proposition; the tipping points. After each tipping point the rate of participation decreased, where after it increased again towards a new tipping point. As operationalized in the method section, a dialogue can be seen as self-sustaining if community leaders of PUO do not interfere in a dialogue but the rate of participation increases. This occurred during the first tipping point, where the community leaders did not interfere in the dialogue but the rate of participation increased. Furthermore, the first tipping point showed up in just one topic, where after the community leader did not participate in the dialogue anymore. From this point only individuals from the community participated in the dialogue, which can be an indicator of the emergence towards a self-sustaining dialogue.

Proposition 2

A short recall of the second proposition in this paper concerning connectors, which were made earlier in this paper:

Proposition 2: A connector who becomes active in a community, in the sense of bridging nodes, is a necessary (but not in itself a sufficient) condition for reaching the tipping point.

First, connectors need to be identified in order to answer this proposition. Therefore the indicators of (Hullett & Boster, 2001) regarding connectors are used. This leads to two identified connectors in the community; node 1 and node 5. The justification of why these actors are connectors in this community is elaborated next.

Node 1

Connector items Examples

This person is often the link between participants in different communities.

“Ik kijk, net als node 5, uit naar je blogs” This person is often introducing people to each

other.

“Kortom, ik nodig jullie allemaal van harte uit om hier mee te doen”

This person tries to bring people together when they find the same subject interesting.

“Dus, wie trapt er af?”, “Op deze manier proberen we de drempel zo laag mogelijk te maken, voor iedereen; bestaande en nieuwe leden”.

“In dit topic maken we kennis met nieuwe leden van Wij Mantelzorgers”

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22 Node 5

Connector items Examples

This person is often the link between participants in different communities.

“Maar ik hoop dat de overige leden van Wij-mantelzorgers ook even laten horen wat onze doelen gaan worden”

This person is often introducing people to each other.

“ik denk dat veel mensen hier op het forum graag willen weten of je zelf mantelzorger bent” This person tries to bring people together when

they find the same subject interesting.

“Ik volg en lees jouw blogs al enige tijd en ik kan deze aan iedereen van harte aanbevelen”, “Wat vinden jullie hiervan? Hiermee bedoel ik niet alleen node 3 en node 4, maar iedereen die dit stukje leest”

“Door node 1, node 2, node 3 en node 4 zijn al punten aangedragen”

Table 6: Indicators node 5

In graph 3, the number of posts of connectors during the three tipping points is processed. The tipping points occurred in week 7/8, week 12/13 and week 19/20. The frequency of posting of connectors increased during the tipping points, as we look at graph 3. This tells us that connectors play a pivotal role in the emergence of a tipping point, when looking at the activity in number of posts of connectors.

Graph 3: Number of posts connectors

But instead of only looking at the quantity of these posts, also the quality of posts has to be analyzed in order to say something about the role of connectors during the tipping points. The quality of posts is analyzed by investigating whether these connectors became active in the sense of bridging nodes. The three tipping points as set earlier in this section occurred in week 7/8, week 12/13 and week 19-21. Node 1 and node 5 posted in the process towards these tipping points the following posts:

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23 Tipping point week 7-8

In the stage before the tipping point, node 1 initiated the topic “Wat willen we bereiken met wij mantelzorgers”. The rate of interaction increased in this period only in on topic. The topic was initiated by node 1 as follows:

In the process towards the first tipping point node 5 posted the following posts:

and

These are examples of posts given by node 5 in the process towards the first tipping point. Looking at proposed proposition 2, it can be stated that node 5 has become active in bridging nodes and making acquaintances. Node 1 has shown its importance by initiating a topic where the dialogue emerged to a tipping point.

Tipping point week 12/13

The second tipping point is detected in week 12/13, in those two weeks the rate of interaction increased in multiple topics, in contrast with the previous tipping point. Node 1 posted the following reactions in the process towards this tipping point:

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24 These are two examples of bridging nodes and bringing individuals together who are interested in the same subject. So, also in the process towards this tipping point a connector became active in his role of bridging nodes and making acquaintances.

Tipping point week 19-21

The third tipping point in the community of informal care at PUO emerges from week 19 to week 21. Also in these weeks towards the tipping point, the interaction was spread over multiple topics. Reactions of connectors (node 1 and node 5) were in these weeks:

and

These are examples of posts of node 1 in the communities. In the process towards this tipping point, node 5 did not post. An explanation for this could be that participants in the community already know one another and therefore have already a connected feeling.

Proposition 3

In the theory section, a third proposition was developed regarding mavens, the proposition which was made earlier is:

Proposition 3: A maven who becomes active in a community, in the sense of sharing information or helping others, is a necessary (but not in itself a sufficient) condition for reaching the tipping point. In order to provide a conclusion for this proposition, it is necessary to identify mavens in the community. (Feick & Price, 1987) developed some indicators to identify a maven. They will be used for this research, which results in three identified mavens in the community; node 3, node 6 and node 7. Next is explained why these actors are mavens in this community.

Node 3

Maven items Examples

This person finds it important to share

information with others regarding informal care

“Het filmpje zal op korte termijn in de community geplaatst worden”

This person is willing to help if someone is seeking for a issue regarding informal care

“Wie interesse heeft of meer wil weten over de cursus kan bij bellen op mijn werktelefoon: 06-********”. People often seek for this person regarding

questions about informal care

Node 4: “De mantelzorger is echter niet de pat/client toch, hoe zie jij dat node 3?

Node 5: “Wat vinden jullie hiervan? Hiermee bedoel ik niet alleen Node 3 maar iedereen die dit stukje leest”. Node 13: “Over de ‘kunst van het loslaten’ heb ik het gehad met node 3”.

This person likes to be aware of the most up-to-date informal care information in order to share with others when it is relevant

“Afgelopen twee weken heft een ASS-moeder een cursus bewustzijn georganiseerd in Almelo. Op haar website www.******.nl kan je meer info over haar vinden”  node 18

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25 If we look closer to the quantity of post of the identified mavens, it can be stated that at least one maven was active during each tipping point. Graph 4 shows us the quantity of posts of mavens during the three tipping points. While looking at the graph 4, the high number of posts in the first tipping point is striking. Also in this case it can be suggested that a maven plays a pivotal role in the emergence of a tipping, when looking at the number of posts.

Node 6

“Helpend is de beschikking over informatie en instanties weten te vinden die mij en degene die zorg nodig heeft kunnen helpen en ondersteunen”. This person is willing to help if someone is

seeking for a issue regarding informal care

“Welkom Resi. Als ik lees: ... dan komt dat bij me binnen” (helpt vervolgens node 25 bij haar vraag) “Meedenkend met jou (node 5)…”

People often seek for this person regarding questions about informal care

“Je uitnodiging om ‘voer te leveren over het thema helpen’ pak ik graag op”.

@ node 21: “Ik schrijf net een discussie op een LinkedIn groep van Movisie…”

Node 7

“Mochten je daar vragen over hebben vind ik het altijd leuk om met je mee te denken”.

This person is willing to help if someone is seeking for a issue regarding informal care

“Onderstaand 2 adressen (websites) hierover” People often seek for this person regarding

questions about informal care

Node 1: Wat vind je daarvan? (vraag gericht aan node 7).

“Nu ik me meer verdiep in de wereld van de mantelzorger…”

In het zorgland zijn al heel vele instructiefilmpjes gemaakt. Voor de basistraining voor zorgverleners of vrijwilligers maak ik dankbaar gebruik van die filmpjes. Hierbij een lijst: “…”.

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26

Graph 4: Number of posts mavens

Beside the quantity of posts of a maven, also the quality of these posts needs to be analyzed. By taking a closer look of what a maven posted in the process towards the tipping point, it can be determined whether a maven became active in the sense of providing information and helping others. In the three tipping points, as described before, the nodes identified as a Maven posted the following posts:

Node 3 refers in her first post in the topic “Wat willen we bereiken met wij mantelzorgers” to the first meeting of the community. Node 3 shows in this post the urge to share information with others and the desire to help others in this community:

and

Others refer to node 3 for questions regarding informal care

Also node 6 plays an active role in this topic. This, in the role of a maven, node 6 provides information and tries to help others in the community:

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27 Whereas also node 7 plays a role as a maven, which is illustrated by the following post:

In the process towards the second tipping point (in week 12/13), the individuals which are characterized by being a maven, are playing an active role. This is illustrated by the following examples of each node.

Node 3:

Node 6:

Node 7:

and

A closer look at emergence of the tipping point in week 19-21, teaches us that only node 7 plays an active role, in this timeframe node 3 and node 6 are playing an inactive role.

Node 7:

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28 Proposition 4

Finally, a short recall of the fourth proposition made in the theoretical framework concerning salesmen in a community:

Proposition 4: A salesman who becomes active in a community, in the sense of expressing their point of view clearly or initiating a discussion, is a necessary (but not in itself a sufficient) condition for reaching the tipping point.

The identification of salesmen in the community is also necessary for making conclusions concerning these propositions. To identify these type of individuals, the indicators of (Boster et al., 2011) will be used. This leads to one identified salesmen in the community; node 4. The explanation of why node 4 can be categorized as a salesman is elaborated next.

Node 4

Salesmen items Examples

This person is good at thinking of multiple ways to explain an issue related to informal care.

“Ik neem aan date en ieder weet, date r via de wijkverpleging een cursus gegeven kan worden aan een groep m/z en tips individueel per m/z over ziekenverzorging thuis waar als de ondersteining technieken aan de order komen. Dan is er nog in veel gemeente,s een formulieren briggade die oook m/z helpen bij de paperassen die er aan te pas kunnen komen. En door de transisitie zijn bij veel Welzijnsorganisaties allerlei projecten aan de gang ter bevordering van ondersteuning m/z.

In a discussion, this person is able to make others see it from his/her side of the issue.

“Begrijp ik goed dat...”, “Boeiende discussie” This person can easily offer multiple perspectives

on an issue related to informal care.

“In je laatste zinnen zet de M.Z. central, de hulpverlener of dat nu de W.V. of de M.W. er is of iemand van welzijn moet du seen

hulpverleningsrelatie aangaan me de M.Z. De M.Z. is echter niet de pat/client toch, hoe zie jij dat? node 4”

This person is often able to convince others of his position in a discussion related to informal care.

“Mijn wens is date r een landelijk platform komt, aar Mantelzorger ANONIEM hun verhaal kwijt kunnen!!!”

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29

Table 11: Number of posts salesmen

Besides looking at the quantity of posts of salesman, also the quality of these posts is analyzed in the community. In order to do so, the posts are analyzed by focussing on the role the salesman played in initiating a discussion or expressing his or her point of view clearly. Node 4 posted in the process towards the tipping points the following posts:

Concerning the first tipping point, node 4 became active in the role as he was identified; the salesman. This person has an active role in discussions and is good in expressing their point of view. This is illustrated by following sentences in posts:

When analyzing the posts in the process towards the second tipping point, we can see that node 4 has played the role of a salesman. In this timeframe, the following parts are observed in node 4 posts:

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30 and

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31

Conclusions

The conclusions on the results will be given in this section. A brief conclusion will be given about each proposition, based on the analyzed data in the results section.

Propositions 1a and 1b

A short recall on the propositions 1a and 1b regarding the tipping point:

Proposition 1a: In a community there exists a point where the rate of participation rapidly increases. Proposition 1b: Hitting this tipping point in a community will lead to a self-sustaining dialogue. All posts are analyzed in the community concerning informal care at PUO. As a result of this analysis graph 1 is drawn. Three tipping points have been observed, in those weeks the rate of posts rapidly increased. The tipping point occurred in week 7/8, week 12/13 and week 19-21. Therefore proposition 1a can be supported, although it is possible that multiple tipping points emerge in a community. An addition towards this conclusion is the spreading of posts among different topics. In the community “Wij Mantelzorgers” are 21 different topics concerning dialogues of informal care. The first tipping point occurred in only one topic. In contrast with the second tipping point, the spread of posts was among five different topics. The third tipping point even had a spread of eight different topics. If the tipping point is characterized by a broad spread of topics, it is likely that a dialogue in a community does not emerge to a self-sustaining dialogue. This tentative assumption can be made because the number of posts in a topic is likely to decrease if there is a broad variety of posts among topics. To illustrate this assumption; the first tipping point had only one topic, so an average about 15 posts in a topic, where the third tipping point had eight topics, which results in an average about 2,5 posts a topic.

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32 Proposition 2

The second proposition concerning the connectors is as following:

Proposition 2: A connector who becomes active in a community, in the sense of bridging nodes, is a necessary (but not in itself a sufficient) condition for reaching the tipping point.

The individuals participating in the dialogue have been analysed in order to determine if an individual is a connector. In this process two individuals are categorized as connectors; node 1 and node 5. Because an example could be given of each indicator of a connector, these nodes have been identified as connectors. Taking a closer look at the role of a connector in a community, we can see in graph 3 that node 1 has been active during all three tipping points, and node 5 has been active during the first two tipping points. But during all three tipping points at least one connector has played an active role by posting comments in the community. When these connectors played a less active role, the rate of participation also decreased. Therefore can be stated that an active connector in a community will enhance the emergence of a tipping point.

In the process towards the tipping point, both connectors became significant active in the community as stated before. But explicitly in bridging nodes, which resulted in a community with more connectivity. Examples of posts given in the result section refer to these nodes were supporting other individuals to participate and bringing individuals together. However, the intensity of posting comments did decrease when reaching a new tipping point. An explanation for this could be that the community already knew one another and therefore did not need a connector, because “the nodes were already bridged”. Another reason for the decrease in participation of node 1 and node 5 is the amount of different topics in which individuals did participate. Although there is a decrease in participation of connectors in a community, it can be supported that an active connector is a necessary condition for reaching the tipping point in an online community. Due to the fact that those individuals provide a connected community, by bridging nodes results in other individuals participating in the dialogue. This is illustrated by connectors who refer to names in a discussion, supporting others to participate, and bring people together. Whereupon other individuals will react on these posts, which results in an increased frequency of participating and eventually leads to a tipping point.

Proposition 3

The third proposition regarding the mavens is as following:

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33 active in the community when the tipping point arises. And, a maven becomes active when the rate of participation has already increased, as can be seen the time when mavens did participate in a dialogue. Furthermore, when the rate of participation of mavens decreased, also the rate of participation in the whole community decreased. Therefore can be stated that an active maven in a community will enhance the emergence of a tipping point.

If we take a closer look to the activity of a maven in the process towards the tipping point, there can be seen that the identified mavens do become active. Although the rate of participation decreased after a tipping point. The reason given by connectors does also apply for mavens; the number of posts has a broader variety among topics. Because the three mavens in the community did help other individuals and were sharing information, the discussion emerged to a tipping point. Because of these reasons, other individuals did react on this information or came with new questions or information. Therefore an active maven can be seen as a necessary condition for reaching the tipping point; proposition 3 is supported.

Proposition 4

The last, and fourth proposition with respect to the salesmen is as following:

Proposition 4: A salesman who becomes active in a community, in the sense of expressing their point of view clearly or initiating a discussion, is a necessary but not in itself a sufficient condition for reaching the tipping point.

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34

Discussion

A short recall from the main purpose of this thesis is to find a better understanding in fostering the tipping point in a community. (Nijs, 2014) refers in her thesis to the ‘broad variety of thoughts’, which is essential in making a dialogue generative. This thesis focuses on certain individuals in a community who are essential in reaching a tipping point where the rate of participation rapidly increases. These individuals are the connector, the maven, and the salesman. Each type of individual has certain characteristics which help those types of individuals to identify in a community. If these types of individuals can be located and mobilized, it will lead to reaching a tipping point in a community; as is suggest in this paper. The connector has to play an active role in the sense of bridging nodes, which will lead to a community where one knows another. Secondly, a maven has to become active in a community in helping others and providing information. This leads to a community in which individuals will react on each other which increases the rate of participation. And finally, the salesman needs to play an active role by initiating a discussion, so others can react on this individual. For investigating these propositions, a community has been analyzed which has led to the following conclusions.

Propositions 1a and 1b focused on the tipping point: to determine if a point exists where the rate of participation rapidly increases in a community and if this tipping point would lead to a self-sustaining dialogue. This paper argues that multiple tipping points can occur in a community: points in time where the rate of participation rapidly increases. This is in line with the research of (Rogers, 2003), who argues that at a certain moment the rate of adoption rapidly increases which will eventually leads to a tipping point. If we look at the second proposition regarding the tipping point, which specifies on self-sustaining the dialogue, it is hard to find evidence for the fact that the community has become self-sustaining. The question which arises is if the detected tipping points can be categorized as tipping points if the dialogue did not became self-sustaining. (Rogers, 2003) described the tipping point as the point where the rate of adoption rapidly increases, whereupon it becomes self-sustaining. Although during the first tipping point the rate of participation increased but a community leader did not interfere in the dialogue, it has not led to a self-sustaining community. In addition, there are three points determined in the community where the rate of adoption did rapidly increase. These three tipping points can lead eventually to a real tipping point where the community becomes self-sustaining. This idea is supported by (Aouragh, 2011) who investigated the internet revolution of the Arab Spring and states that several tipping points eventually will lead to a crucial moment of significance. Connectors, mavens and salesmen have to play an important role for reaching this crucial moment by posting and encouraging individuals to participate in the dialogue.

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35 The second proposition focussed on the role of connectors in a community, and in specific towards the tipping point in a community. This paper argues that connectors have a pivotal role in the process towards the tipping point in the way that those types of individuals bring individuals together and in bridging nodes. Eventually, this will result in a more connected community which leads to more participation and finally in reaching the tipping point. This seems in line with existing literature regarding connectors and reaching a tipping point. (Gladwell, 2001) argues that connectors are essential in reaching a tipping point, because those types of individuals are capable of bridging nodes. Due to the fact that connectors bring individuals together, which will result in a more connected community. This connected community is a basis for individuals to participate in the dialogue (Goodman et al., 1998).

The third proposition concerned the role of mavens in a community in the process towards a tipping point. In this paper, also mavens have a crucial role in hitting the tipping point in a community. Mavens are described as connecting other individuals with information (Gladwell, 2001). If mavens become active in a dialogue in the sense of providing information and helping others, a dialogue will emerge towards a tipping point. This is in line with existing literature which states that information and knowledge sharing enhances the quantity of participation (Chiu et al., 2006).

With respect to the fourth proposition, it can be stated that also salesmen play an important role in the achievement of the tipping point. If this type of individual becomes active in a community, in the sense of initiating discussions and expressing their opinions, a community is more likely to emerge towards the tipping point. (Gladwell, 2001) describes these types of individuals as argumentative and effective debaters. The effect of active salesmen in a community will lead to more interaction, which is in line with (McLure Wasko & Faraj, 2000) who stated that this enables individuals to post en respond.

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36 Managerial implications

The conclusions made in this paper have certain practical implications. In order to create a self-sustaining dialogue, firms need to identify certain individuals in a community. This research has provided a simple way to identify all three types of individuals with clear indicators. If these

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37

Limitations and further research

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38

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