Water Stress: Some Symptoms and Causes:
A Case Study o f Ta’iz, Yemen
C hristopher David Handley
Thesis subm itted for the degree o f D octor o f Philosophy
D epartm ent o f Geography School o f O riental and African Studies
U niversity o f London
1999
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S U fl m
W ater Stress: Som e Sym ptom s and Causes: A Case Study o f T a ’iz, Yem en
Abstract:
This study claim s that to develop w ater resources sustainably in areas facing w ater shortage an understanding o f the factors leading to scarcity require an integrated, interdisciplinary and holistic approach. This hypothesis has been tested in the context o f a w ater shortage crisis in the Yemeni city o f T a ’iz (population 400,000) that peaked in 1995.
The crisis was triggered by the dem ise o f the main aquifer supplying the city. N um erical assessm ent o f the aquifer’s w ater resources permits an historical reconstruction o f its degradation. The environm ental cost o f its demise, w ere irrigated agriculture to cease so that the aquifer could recover, is modelled. The returns to w ater from agriculture and industry are estim ated in econom ic and livelihood provision terms, and contrasted. Sectoral contribution to w ater resource pollution is also contrasted. The area’s dependence on grain imports is evaluated in term s o f ‘virtual w ater’ (Allan, 1998). Adaptation to w ater shortage o f individual households and w ater-related businesses is assessed quantitatively (through questionnaires) and that o f political actors qualitatively through interviews. An assessm ent o f the influence o f the legal and institutional fram eworks to the adaptive process utilises secondary data and interviews.
These data and analysis suggest that the reality o f water allocation in the T a ’iz area reflects politcal rather than econom ic factors, and econom ic rather than w ater resource criteria. The data are also used to exam ine critically the causes o f the crisis in term s o f political ecology and environm ental reconstructionist m odels o f sustainable developm ent. An alternative model is proposed which incorporates econom ic progress, environm ental protection and equity provision. N orthern hydropolitical theoiy is found inadequate to encom pass the allocative process o f a Southern w eak state (M igdal, 1988).
2
Acknowledgments
I w ould like to acknow ledge D r M oham m ed L u tf AI Eryani for m aking the research in Yemen possible and Abd A r Rahm an AI Eryani for giving insights into the political makeup o f the field area. Abd As Salam Abd AI Alim Hasan provided valuable exposure to indigenous legal and institutional fram eworks, A bdullah S aif provided hydrological data, and Drs Gazi As S aqqaf and K halid R iaz agricultural econom ics data. Digby Davies, C hristopher Ward, Cecile de R ouville and Drs A slam Chaudhry, M arcus M oench, Alex M cPhail, T ony Zagni and Peter M aw son are gratefully acknowledged for stim ulating discussion and assistance in
understanding socio-econom ic issues related to the study. Drs R ichard M orris, Malcolm L onsdale, B arry Lakem an and John and A ndrew M itchell, and Roy Avis, G avin Thomas and D ebbie Lakem an generously gave o f their tim e in discussions, statistical and m eteorological advice, support and logistics. Office facilities w ere m ade available by M argaret Shaw and the K erith C entre. Jane Dottridge (UCL) patiently guided chapter three and Y asir M ohieldeen and Hirouki Y oshida (SOAS) processed the satellite image data used in Figures 3.10 and 4.2.
T he frontispiece is by Dan W estin. I w ould especially like to thank G erhard Lichtenthaler for his continued encouragem ent, my wife for her patience and proof-reading and last, and perhaps m ost, P rofessor Tony Allan for his supervision, provision o f facilities,
encouragem ent and support.
I am also grateful to UNDP and Dar El-Yemen for permitting me to use data collected w hilst on contract to them.
Table o f Contents
1 In tro d u c tio n 14
1.1 Purpose and Scope o f the Thesis 15
1.2 Thesis Outline 16
1.3 Initial Concepts 17
2 H o t W a te r T opics: W h a t th e P a p e rs Say 22
2.1 Holism , Interdisciplinarity and Integration 22
2.2 The Global Position 25
2.2.1 Global w ater statistics indicate the size o f the problem 25
2.2.2 Some attem pt to solve the problem 26
2.3 The V alue o f W ater 28
2.3.1 The value o f w ater 2 8
2.3.2 Demand m anagem ent 30
2.4 Politically Deep W ater 37
2.4.1 Environm ental Politics 37
2.4.2 The R ole o f K now ledge or Information 38
2.4.3 B elief System s 39
2.5 W ater Rights and Legal Fram ew orks 40
2.5.1 W hat is law for? 40
2.5.2 Who owns the w ater; Private, Common or State? 41 2.5.3 W ater Laws o f Islam ic Countries - S hari’a, Custom or State? 42 2.5.4 Law Enforcem ent and W ater Rights versus Rights to W ater 43
2.6 Institutions 45
2.6.1 Types o f Institution 45
2.6.2 A Q uestion o f Scale 47
2.6.3 A Q uestion o f Function 48
2.6.4 Institutional paths to m ore jobs and crops per drop 50
2.7 Sustainable D evelopm ent 54
2.7.1 Environm entally U nsustainable D evelopm ent to Date 54
2.7.2 The V alue o f the Environm ent 55
2.7.3 Environm entally Sustainable Development 55
2.7.4 Roles o f Aid and Poverty 57
2.7.5 W hy aid now focuses on institutions 60
2.7.6 C onceptual Fram ew orks o f Sustainable D evelopm ent 61
2.8 Summary: key them es relevant to Yemen 62
3 A u to p sy o f an A q u ife r 64
3.1 Introduction 64
3.1.1 Outline M ethodology 66
3.2 R ainfall 68
3.3 R unoff 69
3.3.1 M ethodology 69
3.3.2 R unoff to W adi AI Hayma 72
3.4 Evapotranspiration 75
3.4.1 Choice o f Evapotranspiration Model 75
3.4.2 FAO Penm an M onteith M odel Param eterization 76 3.4.3 Soil M oisture Content: M odel M ethodology 77
3.4.4 Irrigation 78
3.4.5 Irrigation Trends 80
3.4.6 M odel Checks 82
3.5 G roundw ater Flow M odelling 83
3.5.1 Steady-State G roundw ater Flow M odel 83
3.5.2 Transient W ater B alance Model 86
5
3.6 W ho took the w ater?
3.6.1 A quifer Recovery: the hydrogeology o f
89
potential resource reconstruction 91
3.7 W ater Resources Pollution 91
3.7.1 M ethodology 92
3.7.2 Polluted Areas 92
3.7.3 Pollution Sources 93
3.8 Summary. Environm ental Im pact on the U pper W adi Rasyan C atchm ent 95
3.8.1 Conclusions 96
A S ocio-E conom ic M ap o f W a te r A llocation an d Use 109
4.1 Agricultural Sector W ater Use 109
4.1.1 N ational and Governorate C ontext 109
4.1.2 M ethodology o f the socio-econom ic surveys o f rural w ater use
1995 & 1996 110
4.1.3 Survey Results 115
4.1.4 Returns to W ater 125
4.1.5 Ten year shift in irrigated area 133
4.2 Industrial Sector W ater Use 134
4.2.1 M ethodology 134
4.2.2 Observations 135
4.3 Rural Dom estic W ater Supplies 139
4.4 Urban Dom estic W ater Supplies 142
4.4.1 M ethodology 143
4.4.2 Results Summary 145
4.4.3 Conclusions 153
4.5 W ater M arkets 154
4.5.1 M ethodologies and D escriptions 154
4.5.2 W ater M arket Overview 168
4.6 Summ ary and Observations 171
5 Discussion: Anatomy of a Water Crisis 207
5.1 The role and lim itations o f dem and m anagem ent in T a ’iz
and the virtual w ater solution 208
5.1.1 W ater has a value vs W ater as an econom ic good 209 5.1.2 Intrasectoral Productive Efficiency M easures 211 5.1.3 Intersectoral A llocatively Efficient W ater T ransfers via M arkets 212
5.1.4 Suppressed Demand M anagem ent 213
5.1.5 International A llocatively Efficient W ater Transfers
via Virtual W ater 214
5.1.6 Some Equity Issues 215
5.1.7 Summary 216
5.2 Yemeni hydropolitical reality: economic sense vs political expedience 217 5.2.1 The Political Map: Historical Roots
o f ‘N o rth ’ a n d ‘S outh’ Yemen 218
5.2.2 The case history o f AI Hayma - Habir: The Political A ctors 219
5.2.3 Some Observations 223
5.2.4 Political ‘R iyalities’: self-interest in regional, national
and international contexts 225
5.2.5 Conclusions: Actors, A llocations and A sym m etries 227 5.3 Im plications o f legal pluralism for w ater allocations in Yem en 228
5.3.1 Sources o f Law 228
5.3.2 Legal A pplications to W ater A llocations 229 5.3.3 Local Reality and The Problem o f Law Enforcem ent 233 5.3.4 Legal fram ework im plications for institutions,
5.4 Institutional A ppropriateness: M atters o f Function and Scale 236 5.4.1 Introduction: Im m ediate Problem s and B roader Issues 236
5.4.2 The Institutions 237
5.4.3 D iscussion - the Com bination o f Scale and Function 247 5.4.4 Conclusion - T he Potential for Local W ater M anagem ent 249 5.5 The C ontribution o f K now ledge and B elief Systems to the
D egree o f Sanction o f D iscourse on the A llocation o f W ater and
som e Im plications for D evelopm ent 252
5.5.1 B elief Systems: Facts vs Truths 252
5.5.2 Some W ater-R elated Truths 254
5.5.3 Types o f K now ledge and their Roles 257
5.5.4 Im plications for Developm ent 258
5.6 Equitably, Environm entally and Econom ically Sustainable D evelopm ent 265 5.6.1 G etting Things in Perspective:Environm ent and Equity 265 5.6.2 Theoretical Background: Political Ecology 266
5.6.3 The Karshenas / EK curve Debate 267
5.6.4 Conclusions: Can you have your w ater and drink it?:
D onor Agency Practice 271
5.7 Conclusions: Individual, Econom ic, Institutional, and Political ‘Social’
A daptive Capacity to w ater shortage and The Integrated H olistic M odel 272
6 Conclusions 285
6.1 Key Issues 285
6.2 Beyond T a ’iz 287
6.3 H 201ism: O ur Man in H abir 290
R eferences 291
Photographs 306
A ppendices 310
A ppendix A U rban Survey Q uestionnaires 311
A ppendix B U rban Dom estic W ater U se - Survey Sam pling and A nalysis 322
A ppendix C N ew spaper Articles 331
7
List o f Figures (Figures are located at the end o f each chapter) 2.1 Perspectives on Sustainable D evelopm ent
2.1 a The environm entalist view 2.1b The Ekcurve / K arshenas view 3.1 Location M ap
3.2 R ainfall D istribution - U pper Wadi Rasyan Catchm ent 3.3 Average M onthly Rainfall (T a’ iz A irport)
3.4 Annual R ainfall (T a’iz Airport) 3.5 M onitored Catchm ents
3.6 R unoff/R ainfall C oefficient C alibration 3.7 M odelled Types o f R unoff to W adi H aym a 3.8 R unoff T hreshold from Individual T a ’iz Storms
3.9 R unoff C oefficient / Catchm ent Size Relationship from Individual T a ’iz Storms 3.10 Changes in Irrigated Areas in AI H a y m a -H a b ir 1986-1995
3.11 M odelled and m easured 1976 groundw ater head distribution in W adi H aym a 3.12 Transient M odel - Channel / Basin Configuration
3.13 W adi AI Lasab Hydrograph 4/9/96 3.14 Transient M odel Calibrated Hydrographs
3.15 Modelled A bstractions from AI H aym a / M iqbaba
3.16 U pper W adi Rasyan Environm ental Impact: Surface and G roundw ater Q uality 3.17 Grow th in the num ber o f w ells drilled and dug 1976-1996
4.1 Locations o f villages included in 1995 survey 4.2 U pper W adi Rasyan Catchm ent Land Use M ap 4.3 Sectoral Share o f Y em en’s GDP
4.4 N W SA W ater Supply Frequency and Quality 4.5 Population D ata
4.6 Household W ater Expenditure
4.7 Education and Em ployment Levels - M en 4.8 Education and Em ploym ent Levels - W om en 4.9 Education Levels - Children
4.10 H ousehold Demographic, Education and Em ployment Data 4.11 N um ber o f facilities per household
4.12 Percentage o f households in income bracket using w ater source 4.13 T a’ iz Piped W ater Supplies
4.14 T a ’iz Tankered W ater Supply
4.15 Total tim e spent fetching w ater per household 4.16 W ater C ollection
4.17 Time spent on w ater-related tasks during crisis 4.18 Per capita N W SA w ater sales
4.19 Reasons for preferring source 4.20 R anking Source D ependability 4.21 A dequacy o f W ater Supply
4.22 Reasons for Preferring Private or N W SA Supply 4.23 C urrent Problem s due to Lack o f W ater
4.24 Proportion o f w ater supplied to households from different sources during the w ater crisis and during the survey (by quantity)
4.25 H ousehold expenditure on w ater as a percentage o f income 4.26 Price elasticity o f demand for N W SA water
4.27 T a ’iz w ater treatm ent companies established annually 1989-1996 4.28 Sale Price vs Q uantity o f w ater sold in water markets
4.32 Is w ater perceived as an econom ic good ? 5.1 V irtual W ater Im ported to Yemen
5.2 Political Structure o f H abir - AI H aym a 5.3 Dhi Sufal-H abir-Al Hayma H ydropolitics
5.4 Increase in proportion o f w ater losses with increased supply 5.5 N W SA W ater and Sewerage Connections
5.6 G overnm ent Institutions and D onor Projects involved in the w ater sector in T a’iz 5.7 The U nequilateral Triangle o f Sustainable Development
5.8 U rban-Rural / N ational-Local Spectrum o f Allocative Causation 5.9 The A llocative Process
5.10 A Sustainable D evelopm ent M odel
9
L ist o f Tables (Tables are located in the text)
2.1 The relevance and application o f the main aspects o f dem and m anagem ent at various scales.
2.2 Principles and examples o f w ater rights.
2.3 Summary: aspects o f institutions: local - national scale polarisation.
3.1 Summary description o f the function, inputs and outputs o f each o f the models.
3.2 Curve numbers derived from the SCS method and those proposed by TS- HW C as applicable to Yemen,
3.3 1983-1995 m ean runoff (m 3/day) to the AI Hayma valley from the main tributaries and from the flanks as determ ined by the different m ethods used in the runoff model
3.4 Values used for the location-specific variables/constants o f the Penm an M onteith equation and the basis for their selection in the T a ’iz context.
3.5 C ropping Patterns, length o f season and crop coefficients for m ajor crop types.
3.6 M ean crop evaporation (m m /day) calculated for the full season.
3.7 Approxim ate irrigated crop portions in the AI Hayma valley derived from discussions with farmers and used in the evaporation model.
3.8 Proportion o f the grow ing season o f each crop in which the soil w ater content falls below the threshold in a mean rainfall frequency year as determ ined by the evapotranspiration model.
3.9 V ariation in evapotranspiration and runoff inputs to the groundw ater m odelling.
3.10 N et recharge contributed to the valley as runoff from the eastern and w estern flanks.
3.11 Steady state model sensitivity.
3.12 Range o f wadi flows (m3/day) determ ined by the steady state m odel for the
‘best f i f range o f recharge and perm eability and the ‘target’ flow s generated by the runoff modelling.
3.13 Summary o f the analyses and results o f the Transient W ater B alance m odelling o f the AI Hayma basin.
3.14 Three scenarios tested by the Transient W ater Balance model (1983-1995).
3.15 Industrial w aste discharges.
3.16 Heavy metal pollution.
4.1 Yemen N ational A gricultural Statistics 4.2 Rent, Zakaat and Tenancy Agreements 4.3 Irrigation regime and conflict potential 4.4 Agricultural Land Use
4.5 A gricultural w ater requirem ents o f the wadi areas o f the U pper W adi Rasyan catchm ent
4.6 Stream irrigated land in the U pper Wadi Rasyan catchm ent 4.7 Crop yields
4.8 Agricultural expenditure and returns and w ater costs in the U pper W adi Rasyan catchm ent
4.8a Ditto, dollar equivalent 4.9 Cost o f w ater to agriculture 4.9a Ditto, dollar equivalent
4.10 The cost o f environm ental degradation 4.10a Ditto, dollar equivalent
4.11 Industrial W ater Use in T a ’iz
4.12 Returns to water: Irrigated A griculture vs Industry
4.13 Types o f W ater Supply and Sanitation in Yemen and the T a ’iz G overnorate
4.18 M ean w ater prices from the different sources
4.19 Percentage o f men, wom en and children responsible for collecting water 4.20 N um ber o f households using different w ater sources
for different households tasks
4.21 Proportion o f households that considered the quality o f the w ater source adequate or inadequate
4.22 Types o f W ater M arket in T a ’iz
4.23 T a’iz Private Supplier Survey - Piped Connections 4.24 Private W ells Supplying Tankers - T a ’iz.
4.25 Tankered W ater Supplies - T a ’iz 4.26 W ater Treatm ent Com panies - T a ’iz
4.27 E ffect o f assum ptions on per capita consumption
4.28 Q uantities o f w ater consum ed by the city population from non-N W SA sources 4.29 C ost and sale price o f w ater for various w ater sources
4.30 Q uantity, Q uality and Sale Price o f W ater
5.1 Summary o f w ater users and intersectoral transfers 5.2 R elationships o f Legal Systems to the S hari’a
5.3 R esponsibilities o f governm ent institutions involved in the T a’iz w ater sector 5.4 N ational and T a ’iz N W SA perform ance indicators, 1997
5.5 Traditional Yemeni Support System s Relating to W ater Use B 1 Salaries o f occupations encountered in the survey
B2 M ultipliers in Regression Equation B3 Household income brackets B4 Data sub-sets
L ist o f Photographs (Photographs are located between the references and the appendices) 1 Dom estic Use o f U ntreated Sewage Effluent
2 Inequitable W ater A llocation
3 W ater D iversion Structure Tapping Sub-Surface W adi Flow 4 W adi Terrace Erosion
5 A rtesian Flow from Fault-Bounded Taw ilah Sandstone 6 Environm ental D egradation
L ist o f Boxes (Boxes are located in the text) 1 History o f H ydraulic Events in T a ’iz 2 T a ’iz W ater - T he Reality
3 Political A ctors in AI Hayma / H abir
N otes
1. During the main period o f field work (1995 to 1998) the exchange rate for the Yemeni Riyal varied from 120 to 140 Y R = $1US
2. Because the literature prefers N orth - South term inology to Developed W o rld - Developing W orld or First W orld - Third W orld term inology, N orth - South has been used. However, when the context is internal to Yem en N orth — South refers to the pre-unification states (pre
1990) or after that date, or generally, to the peoples north and south o f Yarim.
Abbreviations and Acronyms
AREA A gricultural Research and Extension Authority CACB C ooperative and A gricultural C redit Bank CES C onsulting Engineers Salzgitter GmbH
CPR Common Pool Resources
CRO PW A T Com puter program for irrigation planning and m anagem ent CSO Central Statistical Office (M inistry o f Planning)
DISW C D epartm ent o f Irrigation and Soil and W ater Conservation
EEC European Econom ic Com munity
EC Electrical Conductivity
EKC Environm ental K uznetz Curve
FAO Food and A gricultural O rganisation
GAREW S General A uthority o f Rural Electricity and W ater Supply
GDP Gross Dom estic Product
GPS Geographical Positioning System (Hardware)
GTZ D eutsche G esellschaft fur Technische Zusam m enarbeit GW V Ground W ater V istas (Softw are)
HP Horse Pow er
HW C High W ater Council (o f Yemen Arab Republic) IDAS Innovation D evelopm ent in the Agricultural Sector
LC Local Council
LCCD Local Councils for Cooperative Developm ent LDA Local D evelopm ent A ssociation
LW CP Land and W ater Conservation Project
M ENA M iddle East and N orth A frica (W orld Bank Region) MEW M inistry o f Electricity and W ater
NG O N on-G overnm ent Organisation N IE N ew Institutional Econom ics N W RA N ational W ater Resources Authority N W SA N ational W ater and Sanitation Authority
PE Potential Evaporation
PPP Polluter Pays Principle PRA Participatory Rural Appraisal PSP Private Sector Participation RASM R eadily A vailable Soil M oisture
RO R everse Osmosis
RRA Rapid Rural A ppraisal
scs
US Soil C onservation ServiceSOAS School o f Oriental and A frican Studies SURDU Southern U plands Rural D evelopm ent U nit TO R Terms o f R eference
TS-HW C Technical Secretariat o f the High W ater Council
TSW SSSR Technical Secretariat for W ater Supply and Sanitation Sector Reform TW SSP T a ’iz W ater Supply and Sanitation Project
UCL U niverstiy College London
UNDP U nited N ations Developm ent Programm e
UND DSM S United N ations Dept, for D evelopm ent Support and M anagem ent Sen
W DM W ater Demand M anagem ent
W HO W orld Health Organisation W IER W ater is an econom ic resource W INER W ater is not an econom ic resource W RM W ater R esources M anagem ent
W TP W illingness-to-Pay
YR Yemeni Riyal (Currency)
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Chapter 1 Introduction
A m eeting w as held in T a ’iz, Yemen, in observance o f the W orld Day for W ater, 1998. The m eeting was attended by representatives from m ajor organisations associated with foreign aid and developm ent, local com m unity and local and central governm ent representatives, N G O ’s involved in environm ental protection, and, in the name o f public aw areness, several hundred noisy school children. The m eeting was hosted by the relatively new ly established national body responsible for w ater resources. A fter the m eeting, a group o f sm artly dressed people representing m ost o f these organisations w ent on a brief field trip in a rather new and
luxurious Layla ‘alawi (Totyota Landcruiser status symbol, named after a Yem eni politician’s daughter who acquired one). The chosen destination was a 400m deep borehole in H abir being tested to determ ine its safe yield with a view to connecting it to the m ain pipeline supplying the city o f T a ’iz 25 km to the South. A fter a brief conversation with the engineer responsible for the test, a nearby shallow w ell dug into the wadi gravels w as visited, from which its ow ner happened to be irrigating a field o f tomatoes. Standing in his farm -soiled local dress he inform ed the group with great conviction regarding the detrim ental effect the pum ping test was having on his w ater supply. The group then returned to the G overnor’s lunch aw aiting them in the city o f T a ’iz, the 400,000 inhabitants o f w hich, received poor quality w ater once every 3 weeks from the public utility.
On the way from field to city the plight o f the (assum edly) poor farm er was discussed by the em inent experts. D epending on the background o f the speaker, discussion topics ranged around how soon the well could be on-line, the need to com pensate locals for derogation, the role o f appropriate stakeholder representative local institutions, the need to understand the locals’ perceptions and social w ater uses, the application o f Islam ic law to the situation and many others. However, the discussion seemed to miss the reality. A ctually, m onitoring o f the farm er’s well indicated no effect after extended pum ping from the test w ell in term s o f water level or hydrochem istry. He was simply being opportunistic. A lthough the visitors had failed to determ ine this inform ation, vital as it was to their grand strategising, it was not the central issue. M ore importantly, the visiting actors m anaged to reach the w rong conclusion by follow ing the scripts and narratives their disciplines had taught them, resulting in their m issing the ‘big picture’ o f the links the common subject o f w ater m ust form between those disciplines if w ater resources m anagem ent is to be effective. The incident described above not only contains in m icrocosm som e o f the m ulti-faceted aspects o f w ater resources m anagem ent involved in the area o f T a ’iz, but also, and, more importantly, the need for the m anagers to have a m ulti-faceted grasp o f their task.
1.1 Purpose and Scope o f the Thesis
A central hypothesis to this study is that an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to w ater use is needed if determ inants o f allocation are to be understood and sustainable measures
introduced. The w ater stressed situation w hich has evolved in T a ’iz between 1965 and 1995 provides an exam ple with which to test that hypothesis. The T a ’iz data are also used to exam ine critically:
a) the relevance o f dem and m anagem ent, b) the role o f social adaptive capacity,
c) the relative im portance o f econom ic and political factors, d) the contribution o f plural legal and institutional frameworks e) the significance o f virtual w ater and population growth, and
f) the potential for sustainable developm ent in the allocation o f w ater in the context o f severe w ater stress in a Southern state.
T he w ater resources o f a specific area (W adi AI Hayma, 16 km2) are evaluated within the context o f the record o f abstraction for dom estic use and, using satellite imagery and water balance m odelling, for agricultural use as well. The environm ental cost o f the depletion o f the m ain aquifer in AI Hayma is evaluated in terms o f projected lost agricultural production that w ould be incurred in enabling aquifer recovery. The returns to w ater from industrial use are analysed num erically and contrasted w ith those from agricultural use for the w ider (930 km2) U pper W adi Rasyan catchment. [The locations and areas o f W adi AI Hayma and U pper Wadi R asyan included in this study are indicated in Figs. 3.1 and 3.2.] The environm ental impact o f industrial and urban dom estic w ater use is also qualitatively assessed. The politicisation o f w ater allocation between agricultural and urban dom estic users and the potential for conflict are critically examined. The dependence on virtual w ater to meet the food needs o f the increasing population is quantified. The plural institutional and legal fram ew orks are appraised from the perspective o f w hether they contribute to providing or preventing
equitable w ater allocation. The efficiency o f the w ater markets and w hether their provision is equitable are critically exam ined and the volum e o f w ater transacted on the market, and its quality and price are evaluated quantitatively. The capacity to adapt to w ater shortage across the spectrum o f social scale from individual households and businesses to the governm ent is portrayed statistically and through an exam ination o f specific allocative issues respectively. A review o f past and present econom ic developm ent efforts permits a critical assessm ent o f
15
sustainable developm ent models and the potential for environm ental protection and equity provision.
1.2 Thesis Outline
N o doubt the literature w ould be m ore replete with the useful lessons learnt from failures if professionals w ere not so econom ically and politically insecure. In m any fields the study o f failures offers the greatest opportunity for understanding processes. T a ’iz is an exam ple o f failed w ater resources management. The author o f this study was privileged to be able to observe the consequences o f that failure. The fieldw ork spanned the period 1995 to the end o f
1998. A lthough the ‘w ater crisis’ peaked in the sum mer o f 1995, it continues to this day and yet higher peaks may lie ahead. Some causes o f the crisis are traced from 1960’s roots, although an earlier beginning is explored to explain some o f the deeper causes.
Many factors have contributed to the w ater problem s o f T a ’iz and the ‘knock-on’ effects o f those problem s have been num erous and diverse. An analysis o f the problem s, their causes and effects dem ands an integrated, holistic exam ination o f their linkages. The locals and the passing observer view the ‘w hole picture’ as it faces them. Specialists from the disciplines o f hydrogeology, agriculture, developm ent, economics, politics, environm ental and any other field involved notice the colour o f their discipline that contributes to the painting. The policy m aker also w ants to see the whole ‘w ater colour’ and needs to understand the linkages betw een the various aspects o f it that w ould traditionally belong in different academ ic pigeon-holes. The thesis attempts to exam ine the nature, extent and origins o f the shortage.
A ttem pting to integrate the different fields which contribute to the T a ’iz w ater crisis provides a unique opportunity to exam ine the linkages between many diverse physical and human aspects o f w ater resources m anagem ent in the context o f extrem e w ater shortage.
A fter a review o f related literature, the physical w ater environm ent that T a ’iz impacts, and affects T a ’iz, is investigated in term s o f w ater availability and quality in chapter three. The developm ent o f the m ost im portant aquifer to T a ’iz is examined in detail and a reconstruction o f the causes o f its dem ise is attem pted. The social response to w ater availability and use is considered against the underlying econom ic realities in chapter four. These tw o chapters provide physical and socio-econom ic ‘m aps’ o f the shortage. Because different
m ethodologies w ere used to create the ‘m aps’ o f the shortage, each m ethodology is described in its relevant section, and there is no single ‘m ethodology’ section. In chapter five, the
concepts and principles discussed in the literature are used as filters for looking at the T a ’iz
‘m aps’. The ‘m aps’ are also used as a m eans o f testing and revising the concepts and principles. C hapter five is structured on the basis o f the proposed causative sequence described below, but in the direction o f symptom to cause rather than vice versa. The T a ’iz experience is considered in the context o f the apparent contradiction o f sustainable
developm ent. C hapter six concludes the study by considering the appropriateness o f the integrated approach and asking w hether the lessons learnt from T a ’iz could be o f value to other population centres facing sim ilar crises.
1.3 Initial Concepts
The lateral and vertical distribution o f people vis-a-vis water provides a means o f attempting the contradictory; the com partm entalising o f something which is inherently holistic, that is, water.
The Lateral D istribution o f W ater and Humans: Urban - Rural Distinctions
A t the most basic level, homo sapiens interacts with the environm ent extracting needs and returning waste:
Air, W ater, Food
Man Environm ent
--- W aste Products
Hum an com m unities, seeking to enhance their comfort, shelter, convenience and security, tend to concentrate in settlem ents. These settlem ents must look to ever increasingly technological means to provide m an’s needs (and wants). The location supplying the basic needs typically lies outside the settlem ent, and the ‘footprint’ o f supply and environm ental im pact spreads as the settlem ent grows. In term s o f w ater this is probably better term ed a m aldistribution o f people than o f rainfall (Turton, 1999a) and results in a rural - urban (and even N orth South) distinction:
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Urban
R esource Demand Centre W aste Supply Centre
Industrial Activity
Rural
Resource Supply Footprint W aste D isposal Area*
Agricultural A ctivity Rural Dom estic Supply Urban Dom estic Supply
Increasing Livelihood Provision D eclining Livelihood Provision
Result: Population Pull Population Push ^U rbanisation
* The urban area can also be one o f w aste disposal, but the ‘ footprint’ o f environm ental impact by w aste may spread beyond the area occupied by the urban w aste producers (Serageldin, 1994;5).
Lundqvist (1998;Table 1) makes a sim ilar urban-rural distinction using the term inology o f industrial-m echanical and biological-landscape, differentiating w aste disposal (externalities) as being diffuse and concentrated respectively.
T he V ertical D istribution o f W ater and Humans:
Since w ater is unbreathable for humans, when they need water they have to lift it. The
m ovem ent o f resources and waste, for example o f air, w ater and food is largely determ ined by their physical state, thus gaseous fresh air and Chernobyl clouds are at the mercy o f the w eather to drift w here they will. Solid food products and w aste tend to stay w here they are put, but liquid w ater supplies and polluted w aste-w ater flow down-hill under gravity unless im pounded by technologically adequate means.
The prim ary dynam ic acting on w ater is the physical one o f gravity. H ow ever, ‘w ater flows up-hill to m oney and pow er’ (R eisner,1986). In attempting to reverse gravity-flow, human demand (an ‘anthropocentric’ dynam ic, or ‘egocentric’ dynamic when w ant exceeds need) is m et by technological innovation. As w ell as a preference to be upwind, upstream and as far as possible from a landfill site, Yem eni settlem ents, unlike tem perate clim ate settlem ents, tend to be located in m ountainous areas and are often on the mountain ridges. This may be for defence reasons and also to keep away from the dangerous flash floods o f the wadis. The result is the need for a lot o f w ater to be lifted. (Allan, 1994a notes a sim ilar population / w ater elevation separation on a larger scale in the Jordan catchm ent). The rainfall distribution also results in com m unities on the m ountains being nearer to the ultim ate source, that is the rain, and enjoying the econom ic advantages associated with being upstream users rather than
dow nstream users (V arisco, 1983). The poor, who often seem to be located at the downstream end and are m issed out by the ethnocentric dynamic, are sometimes provided for by religious or areligious equity-driven do-gooding. This third, least evident, and therefore weakest dynam ic perhaps could be called ‘good’ or ‘theocentric’.
D issecting the H olistic for the Purpose o f Analysis
For w ater resources m anagem ent to contribute constructively to the establishm ent o f an econom y developing in a sustainable m anner, the unenviable task o f policy formulation and decision m aking m ust weigh a host o f variables, some o f which are inherently in tension. The need for holism in determ ining those weights is self-evident, but the variables still have to be isolated to be weighed. As a starting point prim ary aims must be distinguished from
secondary and ends from means. The follow ing table summarises som e basic aims in providing water:
P ro b le m s / A im s Adequate Provision Environm entally Sustainable
Provision
Equitable Provision
In providing w ater there are tw o ways o f m aking it go further. One is to make it produce more o f the same (productive efficiency) and the other to produce som ething else o f greater value (allocative efficiency). ‘The sam e’ is typically defined as within the sam e broad sector, agriculture, for example, rather than the same item, potatoes, for example.
O v e rall M eth o d s / M ean s: In c re a se d W a te r Use E fficiency
Productive Efficiency A llocative Efficiency
V arious m echanism s contribute to both allocative and productive efficiency, though engineering ones tend to be directed more at the latter and fall in the category o f supply m anagem ent m easures (that is, which increase the supply). The dynamics acting on water provision are depicted as:
D eterm ining Dynamic
Gravity M oney Pow er vs. Equity
Coercion vs. C o-operation C ontext Physical Econom ic Cultural / Socio-Political M echanism s Engineering Signals Legal Fram ew ork - ‘R ules’
Enablers Projects M arkets Institutions - ‘P layers’
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These forces operate within, and help to shape, a context which is not static and in which various allocative trends or processes are taking place. The removal o f w ater subsidies, creation o f w ater m arkets and establishm ent o f reallocative w ater transfers are economic m easures which can help reduce demand, but which all require political facilitation. Political enabling, in turn, is conducted by institutions directed and supported by a legal framework.
This sequence may be depicted as:
Political => Legal => Institutional => Econom ic => <= Social => <~ Physical
For example, the outer layer o f this sequence, the environment, is perhaps the easiest to observe and measure. A bstracting resources from it and returning w aste to it is the sphere o f human activity, which is in turn influenced by underlying econom ic realities. In a
dem ocratised society, such as the UK, the econom ic realities o f w ater transactions, for instance the m agnitude o f o n e’s w ater bill, are m eant to reflect rates set by the relevant institution, for instance the w ater authority or w ater company. Thus the institutional layer underlies the economic. That institution has a legal mandate, for instance from OFW AT, which is in turn established by a legal fram ew ork (the next layer), which itself came into existence through the deliberations o f an elected political body (the core). The extent to which this sequence o f causation allocates water, and thereby the benefits o f w ater use, equitably or for the perpetuation o f pow er asymm etries is a key issue.
The sequence is used here m erely to provide a means o f examining a whole. Some o f these categories are rather loose, may overlap to an extent, and may be short-circuited. In some instances the occurrence o f feedback suggests the relationships betw een them are interactive (such as those in pow er responding to the needs o f the electorate). For the purpose o f this discussion ‘physical’ refers to the quantity and quality o f water, that is, the w ater
environm ent, with w hich com m unities interact. Together with econom ic signals, or their absence, these environm ental constraints largely determ ine the hydraulic activity limits o f those com m unities (for instance limiting the extent to w hich the desert can be made to bloom).
W hen com pared with other rather unidirectionally changing trends and processes that typify the South, some o f which are listed below, the mechanisms and contexts in which the com partm ents o f the sequence operate are much more static :
Trends / Processes Population Increase
Urbanisation Technology / Communication
These trends have been evident in Yem en, particularly during the past thirty years. During this period econom ic developm ent has entered a water resources m anagem ent arena in which the various contexts, m echanism s and trends mentioned above are already operating. As a consequence, econom ic developm ent which seeks to modify the status quo is itself modified by the lim itations o f that arena.
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Chapter 2 Hot W ater Topics: What the Papers Say
This chapter exam ines the thinking o f those w ho publish their thoughts on w ater resources m anagem ent w ithin the various traditional academ ic com partments or epistem ic groups. As discussed in the introduction, this m ethod is put forward as a basis for exam ining the situation in T a ’iz, Yemen. Since there is overlap between the com partments, the headings are not intended to be water-tight. A fter considering the need for an integrated, holistic approach and a b rief look at the ‘global w ater issues picture’, the discussion m oves from an exam ination o f the role econom ic principles play in the allocation o f water resources, to the political. The contribution o f political ecology, beliefs and knowledge to the political debate is considered.
Between the econom ic and the political are the ‘transmission gears’ o f institutions
em powered by a legal fram ework. The discussion then looks at the sustainable developm ent contradiction. Each facet presents some ‘current thinking’ am ongst the international
com m unity w hich provides both a context against w hich to com pare the Y em eni data in chapter 5.
2.1 Holism, Interdisciplinarity and Integration
A review o f the literature suggests the need for a holistic approach w hen considering w ater resources m anagem ent issues is not new. Since 1990 the term integrated has replaced
‘h o listic’ in w ater resource studies, how ever integration o f a partial analysis is inadequate and both term s are necessary. M cSw eeney (1998) describes w ater as “a transient resource” which
“transcends the boundaries o f every living thing on the planet”, and disparages the tools o f
“our ‘atom istic’, fragm ented and departm entalised academ ic disciplines” w ith which we analyse w ater and w ater m anagem ent. One exam ple o f discipline m yopia is the tendency for som e to em phasise w ater volumes and w ater quality, w hilst others focus on w ater quantity and price. R eality is a com bination o f all three. As B erkoff (1994;xvi), after m entioning its econom ic value, com pletes the vital trio stating, “w ater quality should be considered sim ultaneously with w ater quantity” .
Significant problem s arise when holism and integrated are omitted. A llan (1996b; 117), citing the exam ple o f the international legal com m unity’s tendency to base their rules on principles o f hydrology and environm ental science, that is, closed watersheds, rather than on the political realities o f open problem sheds, points out that hydrological system s are subordinate to national political economies. He suggests that this very stance o f the legal com m unity
contributes to the problem o f not solving w ater allocation in the Jordan basin. A nother exam ple is that o f the technical m odifications intended to solve problem s o f efficient operation o f irrigation systems in the N ile Delta. Radwan (1994;57) suggests the technical interventions not only may not achieve the desired improvement, but may even im pair it. The reason, he suggests, is that the efficiency problem s are related to the social m echanism s governing the irrigation system.
A lthough not explicitly m entioned in the conference statem ents o f N ew Delhi, Dublin and Rio, their scope assumes an holistic approach. Participants call for a ‘com prehensive’
fram ew ork and analysis encom passing the relationships between the (physical) ecosystem and (hum an) socio-econom ic activities (W orld Bank 1993; 10), or the integration o f social equity as w ell as econom ic efficiency (M cSw eeney,1998). In the light o f w ater’s ‘u nitary’ nature, the need for integrated resource m anagem ent in order to meet national economic, social, security and environm ental objectives (Berkoff, 1994;xi) is clearly stated. T he holistic hypothesis is therefore not new and integrated approaches to w ater are at least paid lip- service throughout the literature (eg Keenan, 1991 ;34, Delft D eclaration, 1991 ;Annex Point 2).
However, in practice, other situations may occur:
a) To sim ply ignore the interdisciplinary nature o f w ater resources m anagem ent planning:
in particular, ignoring the non-engineering aspects o f the plans (Therkildsen, 1988; 15) was the traditional stance.
b) Om itting disciplines from an ‘interdisciplinary study’:
such as the absence o f team m embers with expertise in physical aspects o f w ater m anagem ent from ‘interdisciplinary’ field studies o f urban w ater and sanitation utilities (C ow en,1994;27).
c) To have the w rong discipline tackling the w rong aspect:
such as engineers busy constructing w ater supply schemes but ignoring the fact that intrigues and conflicts over w ater rights will determ ine w hether those schemes will ever be operable (M orris, 1991 ;75), or sociologists choosing drilling materials which resulted in the w ater supplied becom ing saline (Carl Bro International, 1988;5.2.2).
d) To conduct an ‘integrated’ study which is not interdisciplinary, when interdisciplinarity was called for:
such as om itting the w ater resources assessm ent in an ‘integrated’ rural developm ent plan (CPO et al 1976 in M acM illan, 1976).
e) To fail to distinguish between interdisciplinary and integrated.
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The latter is, perhaps, the m ost com mon mistake and can result in a “series o f largely unconnected reports or studies” achieved by “long, drawn-out m ultidisciplinary research in w hich each discipline wanders o ff into the m inutae o f its specialized by-ways, leaving gaps, and rendering more difficult tight integrating analysis needed to generate good
recom m endations for action”(Cham bers and Carruthers, 1986; 10,1, see also Therkildsen, 1988,15 and 82). The Wadi Rim a project, Yemen may well fit this category. 20 professionals w orked for 2 years to make recom m endations to increase water capture. The implementation resulted in a reduction o f cropped areas downstream , up to 2/3 sharecroppers being driven o ff the land and only slightly m ore w ater being captured (M orton, 1994;35).
W hy should w e be blind to our lack o f interdisciplinarity and integration? Some are quite disparaging about the trespassing o f experts into fields other than their own (Uphoff, 1986;2).
O thers think that this is precisely the problem, suggesting “a balanced pluralist approach, em pirically based and w ith a wide span in both political economy and physical ecology is more likely to fit the reality” w here “pluralism recognises m ultiple causation” (Chambers, 1983;44). Similarly: “It becam e clear that the poor perform ance o f m any irrigation systems in term s o f productivity and equity was .... due to the tunnel vision o f traditional irrigation science” (O orthuizen & W ester 1994;i). Cham bers identifies U p h o ff s trespassers as a solution: "Narrow specialists can be a liability, and the ideal are m ultidisciplinary individuals w hose horizons are not limited by their own original disciplines." (Cham bers and Carruthers,
1986; 10).
Perhaps the field o f irrigation was one o f the first to graduate from the single cause (typically technical, Jurriens & de Jong, 1989;35) to the m ultiple cause concept o f w ater m anagem ent problem s. Irrigation was then recognised as a physical, human and socio-technical process in w hich social relations o f pow er and technological development m utually influence each other (M ollinga, 1998; 12-14, M anzungu,1999;7,l 1,14). We need to get the engineering, prices and process right (U phoff 1986;1). Jurriens & de Jong (1989;35 et seq.) also trace a shift in the m eaning o f O & M from operation and m aintenance to organisation and management, reflecting the underlying shift in em phasis towards institutional matters.
The m ore recent 'arena1 model o f irrigation planning described by DISW C (1993;4) parallels the broad scope o f integrated interdisciplinarity needed in any area o f w ater resources m anagem ent which:
“seeks to develop an interdisciplinary p e rsp e c tiv e by considering the relationship between technology and management... and the integration o f
rural developm ent issues” in w hich “w ater m anagem ent is a form o f social interaction o f different actors em ploying different methods, resources and strategies around the issue o f w ater distribution.,., in a socio-technical system., with a spatial hydraulic/social elem ent and a tim e elem ent that is em bedded in the agrarian structure, the institutional infrastructure o f the state and state-like institutions and the m aterial infrastructure., o f ecology and technology”(ibid;7)
Beyond the m ono-sectoral irrigation literature, in the broader field o f w ater resources m anagem ent, this m ulti-faceted arena has been categorised by Van B eek (quoted in Hansm a and Hermans, 1997; 11) into three systems, natural resources, socio-econom ic and
adm inistrative/institutional systems; a broad grouping o f the facets o f this thesis.
2.2 The Global Position
2.2.1 Global water statistics indicate the size of the problem
A llan (1994a;4) points out the huge differences in annual human w ater needs: for drinking, lm 3; for dom estic purposes, 100m3; and in food, 1000m3. To m eet those needs plus industrial dem and, O hlsson (1995;5) estim ates that around one third o f the w o rld ’s 12-14 thousand km3/yr o f non-soil, renew able freshw ater resources are w ithdraw n. He breaks down these w ithdraw als as 69% to agriculture, industry 21%, and municipal 6%, how ever, sector
consum ption is 89% to agriculture, industry 5% and municipal 2%. The huge consum ption by agriculture is exacerbated by irrigation. However, 36% o f agricultural yields com e from the
16% o f farm land which is irrigated.
There are really only two ways o f ‘losing’ water, either through evaporation (from which state it will rain on som eone else) or through contamination. Seepage o f aquifers to the sea and the flow o f rivers to the sea are the equivalent o f loss through contam ination. The assessm ent o f soil-w ater in global w ater statistics is referred to by A llan (in prep.). Its under
utilisation can only occur if evaporation is taking place instead o f evapotranspiration. Fallow ground therefore is a source o f w ater loss to an area. If the soil cannot retain enough w ater to support the crop for the full season and there is no potential to supplem ent the w ater supply then it is difficult to see how the soil w ater could be utilised. Some w ater w ill inevitably be Tost’ to evaporation from the soil. That which is ‘lost’ through seepage to the aquifer could be reclaim ed but only with energy input for lift.
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In 1991, V incent (1991; 197) stated that only 1.3Bn o f the w orld population had clean water and 700m sanitation, noting that coverage was especially poor in the M iddle East. Serageldin (1994;3) suggested that IB n people lacked an adequate w ater supply and that 1.7Bn were w ithout sanitation. Lundqvist (1998) states that IB n are w ithout access to safe w ater and 800m are w ithout a secure food supply. Although many global w ater statistics are bandied about, some o f w hich are contradictory, whilst others do not com pare like with like, the overall picture o f w ater shortage and an increasing drain on the resource base is consistent.
T he consequences o f shortages are literally a m atter o f life and death. W ithin the M ENA area (W orld B ank designation for the M iddle East and N orth Africa) B erkoff (1994; 14) considers that the provision o f uncontam inated w ater supplies could reduce death in rural and urban areas by 30% , and another 20% if sanitation were to be provided. M ost o f the deaths are am ongst the 0-14 year age range who account for 43% o f the area’s population.
Population growth is the single m ost im portant factor affecting the above estimates. Ohlsson (1995;28) estim ates a w orld population o f over lOBn by 2050, 96% o f whom will be in the South. A llan (1994b;66) bem oans the em phasis by regional leaders on the w ater supply deficiency w hilst de-em phasising the dem ographic explosion that is its cause. However, the global picture is not all gloom. D espite a population increase o f 23% in the developing world betw een 1.980 and 1990, access to safe w ater increased from 77 to 82% and from 30 to 63%
in urban and rural areas respectively and sanitation coverage increased from 69 to 72% and from 37 to 49% in urban and rural areas respectively (W orld Bank, 1993;36).
2.2.2 Some attempt to solve the problem
The reason for such increases in safe w ater and sanitation provision in the 8 0 ’s was partly due to the efforts o f the global developm ent com m unity in response to the ‘W ater D ecade’. The declaration that the 1980’s should be designated as the International W ater Supply and Sanitation D ecade occurred at the UN W ater Conference in M ar Del Plata, A rgentina in 1977.
The conference was described as ‘the first o f its kind ever held in the area o f w ater’ which
‘sensitised the world com m unity on the importance o f w ater for developm ent’ (Thanh and Bisw as, 1990;xiii). This was followed by the UNDP Global Consultation on Safe W ater and Sanitation for the 1990's in N ew Delhi at which participating m usketeers aim ed at “som e”
safe w ater “for all rather than all for som e” by the year 2000. Four parts o f the conference statem ent (quoted in V incent, 1991 ;212) reflect the state o f play in w ater debates:
1: "Protection o f the environm ent and safeguarding o f health through the integrated m anagem ent o f w ater resources and liquid and solid w astes".
2: "Institutional reform s prom oting an integrated approach and including changes in procedures, attitudes and behaviour, and the full participation o f women at all levels in sector institutions"
3: "Com m unity m anagem ent o f services, backed by m easures to strengthen local institutions in im plementing and sustaining w ater and sanitation program mes"
4: "Sound financial practices, achieved through better m anagem ent o f existing assets and widespread use o f appropriate technologies"
V incent is particularly critical that the statem ent suffers from "confusing and contradictory rhetoric" and anticipated that it would have no impact. She cites the ‘m ixed b ag ” o f item 2 m easures as “confusing” and item 4 as “contradictory and controversial”. However, the points did focus on the main w ater issues o f our tim es, or at least on those o f the changing agenda o f the aid fraternity. A ccording to Serageldin (1994;1), the previous ‘old agenda’ had been about providing household services, whilst this ‘new agenda’ em phasises environm entally
sustainable development.
O ther international conferences have also influenced the ‘new agenda’. In 1991, the UNDP held the D elft conference entitled A Strategy for W ater Sector C apacity B uilding which dealt prim arily w ith the need for reform in w ater institutions. The International C onference on W ater and the Environm ent held by the UN in Dublin in 1992 felt that "it is vital to recognise first the basic right o f all human beings to clean w ater and sanitation at an affordable price"
(quoted in Lundqvist, 1998;9) and stated the new agenda rather m ore clearly in w hat are widely referred to as the Dublin principles:
a) Fresh w ater is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, developm ent and the environm ent.
b) W ater developm ent and m anagem ent should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy-makers at all levels.
c) W om en play a central part in the provision, m anagem ent and safeguarding o f water.
d) W ater has an econom ic value in all its com peting uses and should be recognised as an econom ic good.
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The w ater resources policy m easures o f D elft and Dublin were endorsed by world leaders at 1992 UNCED in Rio de Janeiro and were included in the Earth Summ it o f 1993 (Le M oigne et al, 1994;3). M cSw eeney (1998;10), sum m arises Dublin as identifying th at w ater is “to be treated as a scarce valuable resource” and that the conference marked the “ introduction o f dem and m anagem ent m echanism s” . He also describes Rio as “the m ost com prehensive international environm ental and social declaration to date” and as having “equity at its heart”, by w hich he m eans * intergenerational equity’: that is, not dum ping the consequences o f our environm ental m isuse on future generations. Although Rio diluted D ublin it did identify the fundam ental dilem m a in the regulation o f com petitive water use: conservation o f w ater as a prerequisite for developm ent versus developm ent threatening w ater availability (Du Bois, 1992;1).
B riscoe (1994) succinctly describes the ‘new agenda’ o f the international conferences as “no more than the application, to water, o f the great ideas o f our time, nam ely dem ocracy and the m arket” (quoted in Davies and Sahooly, 1996;9). However, w hether the slippery concept o f equity at the heart o f R io will becom e the “greatest good to the greatest num ber o f people”
(M cSw eeney, 1998) is questioned in Orw ellian style by Allan (1994a;3) w hen he asks “equity for w hom ” and “on w hat scale”?
2.3 The Value o f Water
2.3.1 The value of water
The value o f w ater to a man dying o f thirst in the desert is very different to the large negative value o f w ater to the engineer trying to dew ater foundations. M cSw eeney (1998) asserts that
“things only have a value w hen their existence affords a utility to some person” . The potential for ownership im parts value and value arouses the desire to own. The capacity o f w ater to flow and to dissolve substances which pollute it make it respectively difficult to own and urgent to use. C lassical (Rogers, 1992;7.14) and neo-classical (Burrill, 1998) economics equate value with price. A part from the sim ple model o f w ater having different values to different individuals, Burrill distinguishes a societal value for water (ibid.). She discusses many
‘difficult to price’ aspects o f water. These include the health, sustenance and pleasure aspects enjoyed by society as a whole, the ‘knock-on / trickle-dow n’ value o f w ater to those
associated in a secondary way to w ater (such as food provision, w ater tanker m echanics etc), the future value o f w ater and the value to non-users. Allan (1994b;99) com m ents on the failings o f leaders, legislators, officials and engineers to understand the value o f water. Our
value systems are based on our perceptions, and Rogers (1992;7.27) points out the different perceptions o f w ater by individuals, as opposed to groups who collectively make decisions about future uses o f water. The latter, he suggests, adopt the com m on social m isconception that w ater is a pure public good, w hilst the form er are more likely to understand w ater as an economic or private good.
D istinguishing between public and private goods (Pearce, 1993;3) is related to their subtractability and excludability (W orld Bank, 1993;81). Subtractability m eans that if one person consum es the good another person cannot, and excludability m eans how easy or difficult it is to prohibit access to the good. D rinking w ater o f essence is subtractable within quality constraints in that it cannot be drunk again w ithout treatm ent. Sim ilarly, a tanker o f w ater is more subtractable and easier to exclude people from than an urban w ater supply and is thus considered m ore private and less public. The subtractability/ excludability aspect is directly related to the natural m onopoly (and hence greater econom ies o f scale) characteristic (W orld Bank, 1993;83, Berkoff, 1994;23) o f infrastructure-rich, and hence capital
investm ent-rich, pieces o f plum bing such as urban w ater supplies and sew erage systems. This lends the plum bing a certain predeterm ining allocative logic (Falkenm ark and Lundqvist, 1995;204).
Some have said that “w ater is no longer free anym ore” (D elft 1991; 19). O f course, it never was, as w ater auctions in Oman going back to pre-Islam ic times (W ilkinson, 1977; 113), and many other situations, testify. However, the rainfall-rich, traditionally engineering-orientated, N orth (Ohlsson, 1995;5) is waking up to the fact that w ater is an econom ic good (Berkoff,
1994;21). Its value must also include its opportunity cost (W inpenny, 1994;83, Rogers 1992;7.15, Berkoff, 1994;21). That is, its price m ust reflect the lost opportunity for use by one potential user when it is used by another. Ideally, the incorporation o f opportunity cost should ensure that w ater gravitates to the highest value use, and, according to Rogers (1992;7.15) should reflect ‘w illingness-to-pay’(W TP). For many in low -incom e countries, their W TP is a trade o ff between time spent collecting w ater and m oney (Pearce, 1993;78).
Allan (in prep;5.21) contrasts users’ w illingness-to-pay and their capacity-to-afford, where
“affordable m eans the price acceptable to current users which, if left unchanged, brings a political dividend, and if exceeded generates opposition and dangerous political stress” .
How demand is expressed by users and how it is determ ined by providers are other m ajor questions with which econom ists and sociologists grapple. A lthough 2% o f disposable household income is the rule o f thumb maximum limit for w ater supply and 5% is
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unacceptable (W orld B ank quoted in A llan,in prep;5.22), W TP’s o f 8% (U kundu) or even 10- 18% (N igeria) can occur, especially if bought from vendors (Rogers, 1992;7.20,
Pearce, 1993;78, W orld Bank, 1993;49), with poorer sectors often paying higher proportions of their incomes. The switch to vendors typically reflects the declining reliability o f the piped supply (Littlefair,1998), N ot that the consum ers are willing buyers but are trapped into m arket participation by their predicam ent (Allan,in prep;5.30). The fact that agencies have noted consum ers’ w illingness to pay a high price for water and are prom oting private sector participation in w ater supply may prove unfortunate for the consum er in the near future (A llan,in prep;5.33). In areas o f w ater shortage, such as T a ’iz, it is argued, principles o f
‘suppressed dem and’ apply, that is people do not purchase simply according to price.
Sim ilarly, the study o f Mu et al (1990, quoted in Rogers, 1992;7.20) in K enya dem onstrated that price and incom e had little effect on consum ption but did reflect the source (which usually reflects quality) chosen. R oger’s claim that demand is specified by tw o numbers;
quantity and price (1992;7.20) needs correcting to three, so that quality, at least, is included.
2.3.2 D e m a n d m a n a g e m e n t
Before discussing dem and m anagem ent, it is w orth asking what dem and is. M errett (1997;55) contrasts the engineer’s concept o f consum ption, the econom ist’s effective dem and and the u se r’s concept o f need. Lundqvist (1998), equates demand with purchasing power, suggesting dem and can be changed by changing the price o f w ater (price elasticity o f demand,
W inpenny,1994;76). Rogers (1992;7.20) and Lundqvist (1998) also contrast dem and with need, asserting that need is “ a requirem ent for w ater which exists independently o f economic or political status and...cannot be m anipulated” (ibid.). The more ‘need status’ a product, such as w ater has, the less price elastic and less am enable to demand m anagem ent it becomes.
Follow ing in the footsteps o f the power industry (Brooks, 1995;46), part o f the w ater industry’s ‘new agenda’ is sum m arised under the heading ‘demand m anagem ent’. The ‘old agenda’ was perceived as centred on engineering measures to increase supply for anticipated future dem and driven by changes in population, standard o f living (and expectations), sectoral allocation and distribution efficiency (Allan, 1994b;87). Increasing supply to cope with future dem and is term ed ‘supply m anagem ent’. Demand management, on the other hand is the m anipulation o f the forces driving dem and by “the use o f price, quantitative restrictions, and other devices to limit the dem and for w ater” (W orld Bank, 1993;5). B rooks describes this change in approach as an em phasis on end-use rather than on sources o f supply (1995;47).
B erk o ff (1994; 37) defines supply m anagem ent as activities required to locate, develop and m anage new sources, and as actions that affect the quantity and quality at the entry point o f
the distribution system. He sees dem and m anagem ent as com prising actions that influence the use or w astage o f w ater after this point w hich, ideally, should prom ote m ore desirable levels and patterns o f w ater use.
Although B erkoff (ibid.) points out that supply and dem and m anagem ent roughly separate engineering from social and behavioural sciences, there is a problem with the technological innovations and distribution efficiency m easures as at least some o f these effectively tend to increase supply rather than reduce dem and, and, as M errett points out, the estim ate o f demand is increased if distribution losses are included as part o f consum ption (1997; 12). A solution for the urban supply instance is to move B e rk o ffs supply/dem and divide from the entry point to the distribution system to the entry point to the private property it serves, which is also the public/private w atershed on the clean w ater side.
O ther dem and m anagem ent anom alies include the farm er with m ore land than water. Any increases in w ater use efficiency simply increase the land area he can cultivate, and, providing there is a m arket for his produce, the efficiency m easures have effectively increased his supply, not reduced his demand. Also, despite L undqvist’s observation that dem and m anagem ent is particularly needed w here low efficiency and low -value production prevail (1998) there is a greater need to reallocate w ater from low to high value uses even w here efficiency is high if we are to avoid being efficiently unsustainable (ibid;9,
Pearce, 1993 ;47).
An assortm ent o f demand m anagem ent devices appear in the literature (W inpenny,1994;42 et seq., Lundqvist, 1998, M errett, 1997;64-65) and may be grouped in various w ays e.g.:
a) w ater m arket creation and w ater reallocation to facilitate transfer to higher value uses;
b) m arket incentives such as tariff structures and disposal/pollution charges aim ed at
‘responsible w ater use’;
c) technological innovations designed to reduce consum ption, and related distribution efficiency and re-use m easures such as leak detection;
d) educational methods such as public aw areness campaigns;
e) birth control, or at least, children by choice.
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