May 28 – June 3, 2020

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook May 28 – June 3, 2020

• High risks for flooding remain over many parts of Central America as heavy rains are forecast to continue.

1) Heavy rains during the past several weeks have oversaturated the grounds and have triggered flooding and landslides over areas of southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and southern Honduras, according to reports. Torrential rains are forecast to persist during the upcoming outlook period, elevating risks for flooding, landslides, and also lahars over many local areas, including the Quetzaltenango, Retalhuleu, Escuintla of Guatemala and local areas of El Salvador.

Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

High and widespread flood risks exist over Central America due to the forecast heavy downpours during the next week.

During the past week, heavy rains continued throughout Central America. Large (> 100 mm) weekly rainfall accumulation was received over parts of southern and northern Guatemala, western and southern Honduras, central Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains were observed elsewhere. Consequently, over the past thirty days, wetter-than-average conditions persisted across much of the region.

Rainfall surpluses increased further across northern Central America, triggering flooding and landslides over many local areas, including the Huehuetenango, Quetzaltenango, Chiquimula, Zacapa, and El Progreso Departments of Guatemala, Tegucigalpa of southern Honduras, and San Salvador of El Salvador, according to reports. Also, the recent increase in rainfall helped reduce thirty-day deficits over certain areas of Nicaragua and the southern Caribbean. Recent vegetation products have indicated that positive conditions were observed throughout Central America due to the vigorous return of good rains over the recent few weeks.

During this upcoming outlook period, widespread, heavy and above-average rainfall is likely over the Pacific-facing regions of Central America, including Guatemala, El Salvador, western and southern Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. The forecast wet weather pattern elevates the risks for flooding, landslides, and lahars, which could exacerbate or trigger new hazards conditions over many local areas of the region.

Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH Climatology (mm) May 27 – June 3, 2020

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC