Validation of the ASMITA‐marshes model
An application to the Langstone Harbour estuary
Final version Jasper Middelkamp
April 2009 – July 2009
Supervisor University of Twente: P.C. Roos Supervisor HR Wallingford: M.A.F Knaapen
Pre
This at th July I wo (Uni Ross me o In th fant Jasp Ensc
eface
report form he University at HR Wallin ould like to iversity of Tw sington (HR out when I w he end, I w tastic stay in per Middelka chede, Septe
ms my Bache y of Twente ngford Ltd.
o thank my wente) for th
Wallingford) was facing pr want to than the United K amp,
ember 09
elor thesis wi . This resear
supervisors heir feedbac ) and I.H. To roblems.
k my tempo Kingdom.
ithin my stud rch is carried
s M.A.F. Kna ck and their a wnend (HR W orary colleag
dy of Civil En d out from t
aapen (HR advice. Furth Wallingford) gues at HR
ngineering a he 20th of A
Wallingford) hermore I w ) for their ad Wallingford
nd Managem April till the 3
) and P.C.
want to thank dvice and he
for making
ment 3rd of
Roos k S.K.
lping g it a
Co
PREF LIST LIST SUM 1
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
2 2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
3 3.
3.
4 4.
4.
5 5.
5.
5.
5.
5.
6 6.
7 7.
7.
7.
7.
7.
7.
ntents
FACE ...
OF FIGURES . OF TABLES ...
MMARY ...
INTRODUCT .1 ESTUARI
.2 DESCRIP
.3 SALT MA
.4 OBJECTI
.5 OUTLINE
SENSITIVITY .1 METHOD
.2 EXCHAN
2.2.1 Diffu 2.2.2 Diffu 2.2.3 Diffu .3 SYSTEM
.4 VEGETAT
2.4.1 Boun
2.4.2 Grow
2.4.3 Scal .5 CONCLUSION DATA ...
.1 LANGSTO
.2 WESTER
3.2.1 Ritth 3.2.2 Zuid
3.2.3 Waa
DESCRIPTIO .1 DESCRIP
.2 SALT MA
PARAMETER .1 BATHYM
.2 HYDROD
.3 SALT MA
.4 SYSTEM
.5 UNCERT
CALIBRATIO .1 PROBLEM
RESULTS ...
.1 BRIER’S
.2 MARSH .3 FLAT ....
.4 CHANNE
.5 DELTA ..
.6 TOTAL E
...
...
...
...
TION ...
IES ...
PTION ASMITA ARSHES ...
VE ...
E OF THE THESIS . Y ANALYSIS ....
DOLOGY ...
NGE PARAMETERS
usion Channel usion FlatÆCh usion Marsh Æ
PROPERTIES ...
TION ...
ndaries ...
wth of marsh . ing Coefficien ...
...
ONE HARBOUR ..
RN SCHELDT ...
hem ...
dgors ...
arde ...
N LANGSTON
PTION LANGSTON ARSHES ...
RISATION ASM
METRY ...
DYNAMICS ...
ARSH VEGETATIO
PROPERTIES ...
TAINTIES ...
ON PROCESS ..
MS ...
...
SKILL SCORE ...
...
...
EL ...
...
STUARY ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
MODEL ...
...
...
...
...
...
S ...
l Æ Outside W hannel ...
Æ Flat ...
...
...
...
...
nts ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
NE HARBOUR .
NE HARBOUR ....
...
MITA ...
...
...
ON ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
World ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
... 2
... 5
... 6
... 7
... 8
... 8
... 8
.... 10
.... 11
.... 11
.... 12
.... 12
.... 13
.... 13
.... 13
.... 14
.... 16
.... 17
.... 17
.... 18
.... 19
.... 20
.... 22
.... 22
.... 23
.... 23
.... 24
.... 25
.... 27
.... 27
.... 29
.... 31
.... 31
.... 32
.... 34
.... 34
.... 35
.... 37
.... 37
.... 39
.... 39
.... 39
.... 40
.... 42
.... 43
.... 44
8 9 REFE APPE A.
A.
A.
A.
APPE APPE APPE APPE APPE APPE
CONCLUSIO RECOMMEN ERENCES ...
ENDIX A EQU .1 DEFINIT
.2 ASMITA
.3 MULTI‐E
.4 EQUATIO
ENDIX B INPU ENDIX C TABL ENDIX D VEGE ENDIX E TIDE ENDIX F PARA ENDIX G MAT
N ...
NDATIONS ...
...
ATIONS AND
IONS OUTPUT PA
A EQUATIONS ...
ELEMENT MODEL ONS SALT MARSH
UT PARAMETE LES SENSITIVIT
ETATION MA INFORMATIO AMETER SETT TLAB PLOTS ...
...
...
...
OUTPUT OF T
ARAMETERS ...
...
L ...
H ...
ERS SENSITIVI TY ANALYSIS P LANGSTON ON ...
TING ...
...
...
...
...
THE ASMITA‐
...
...
...
...
ITY ANALYSIS ...
E HARBOUR 1 ...
...
...
...
...
...
MODEL ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1994 ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.... 45 .... 47 .... 48 .... 50 .... 50 .... 50 .... 52 .... 53 .... 54 .... 55 .... 59 .... 60 .... 61 .... 62
List
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
FIGUR
t of Figu
RE 1: CROSS‐SEC RE 2: SALT MARS RE 3: BASE MOD RE 4: GRAPH CH RE 5: SENSITIVIT RE 6: SENSITIVIT RE 7: SENSITIVITY RE 8: MOVING V RE 9: BOUNDAR RE 10: MOVING RE 11: LANGSTO RE 12: LOCATIO RE 13: MARSH A RE 14: MARSH A RE 15: WAARDE RE 16: LOCATIO RE 17: AERIAL P RE 18: CHANGE RE 19: COMPUTA RE 20: COMPAR RE 21: COMPAR RE 22: COMPAR RE 23: COMPAR RE 24: VEGETAT RE 25: MOVING RE 26: MOVING RE 27: MOVING RE 28: MOVING RE 29: MOVING RE 30: MOVING RE 31: MOVING RE 32: MOVING RE 33: MOVING RE 34: MOVING RE 35: MOVING RE 36: MOVING RE 37: MOVING RE 38: MOVING RE 39: MOVING RE 40: MOVING
res
CTION ESTUARY W SH TYPE IN RELAT DEL SENSITIVITY A ANNEL VOLUME TY CHANNEL ELEM TY CHANNEL ELEM Y RATE OF SEA LE VOLUME MARSH M
IES MARSH ELEM G VOLUME MARS ONE HARBOUR SA
N SALT MARSHES AREA RITTHEM 1
AREA ZUIDGORS E MARSH 1957 (
N LANGSTONE H
HOTOGRAPH LA IN AREA OCCUPI ATIONAL PROCED RISON MOVING V RISON MOVING V RISON MOVING V RISON MOVING V TION MAP 1994
G SURFACE CHAN G VOLUME CHANN G SURFACE DELTA G VOLUME DELTA G SURFACE FLAT N G VOLUME FLAT N G SURFACE MARS G VOLUME MARSH G SURFACE CHANN G VOLUME CHANN G SURFACE DELTA G VOLUME DELTA G SURFACE FLAT W G VOLUME FLAT W G SURFACE MARS G VOLUME MARSH
WITH ELEMENT V TION TO TIDE (PA ANALYSIS ...
DIFFUSION CHAN MENT DIFFUSION MENT DIFFUSION EVEL RISE ...
MINIMUM DEPTH MENT ...
SH BETA COEFFICI ALT MARSH AREA S WESTERN SCH
1970 (GREEN) &
1944 (LIGHT GR
(GREEN) AND 19 HARBOUR IN THE NGSTONE HARBO
ED BY SPARTINA DURE SEMI‐EMP OLUMES MARSH OLUMES FLAT ...
OLUMES CHANN OLUMES DELTA . 4 (HR WALLINGF NEL NO VEGETAT NEL NO VEGETAT A NO VEGETATION A NO VEGETATION NO VEGETATION NO VEGETATION H NO VEGETATIO H NO VEGETATIO NEL WITH VEGET NEL WITH VEGET A WITH VEGETATI A WITH VEGETATI WITH VEGETATIO WITH VEGETATIO H WITH VEGETAT H WITH VEGETAT
VOLUMES ...
ARTLY AFTER EFF
...
NNEL Æ FLAT ...
N MARSHÆ FLAT N MARSHÆ FLAT
...
H ...
...
IENT ...
A 1955 (GREEN)
ELDT ...
& 1998 (ORANG REEN), 1981 (GR
998 (ORANGE) ..
UNITED KINGDO OUR (GOOGLE E
A ANGLICA (HR W
IRICAL MODELS (
H ...
...
EL ...
...
FORD, 1997) ...
TION CHANGE ...
TION CHANGE ....
N CHANGE ...
N CHANGE ...
CHANGE ...
CHANGE ...
ON CHANGE ...
ON CHANGE ...
TATION CHANGE TATION CHANGE .
ION CHANGE ...
ON CHANGE ...
ON CHANGE ...
N CHANGE ...
TION CHANGE ...
TION CHANGE ...
...
FING, 2005 AND
...
...
T = 200 ...
T = 100 ...
...
...
...
...
) & 2001 (ORAN
...
E) ...
REEN) & 1998 ( ...
OM ...
EARTH) ...
WALLINGFORD, 1 (WANG ET AL, 20 ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
NRA, 1995) ..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
NGE) ...
...
...
(ORANGE) ...
...
...
...
1997) ...
007) ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
... 9 .... 10 .... 12 .... 14 .... 15 .... 15 .... 16 .... 17 .... 18 .... 20 .... 22 .... 23 .... 24 .... 24 .... 25 .... 27 .... 28 .... 30 .... 31 .... 40 .... 41 .... 42 .... 43 .... 59 .... 62 .... 62 .... 63 .... 63 .... 64 .... 64 .... 65 .... 65 .... 66 .... 66 .... 67 .... 67 .... 68 .... 68 .... 69 .... 69
List
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
TABL
t of Table
E 1: SENSITIVITY E 2: SENSITIVITY E 3: SENSITIVITY E 4: SENSITIVITY E 5: SENSITIVITIE E 6: SENSITIVITIE E 7: SENSITIVITIE E 8: SENSITIVITIE E 9: SENSITIVITIE E 10: MARSH AR E 11: MARSH A
E 12: MARSH A
E 13: DISTURBA E 14: PREDICTIO E 15: PREDICTIO E 16: PREDICTIO E 17: PREDICTIO E 18: PREDICTIO E 19: PREDICTIO E 20: PREDICTIO E 21: PREDICTIO E 22: BSS VOLU E 23: ELEMENT E 24: VEGETATIO E 25: SENSITIVIT E 26: SENSITIVIT E 27: SENSITIVIT E 28: SENSITIVIT E 29: SENSITIVIT E 30: SENSITIVIT E 31: SENSITIVIT E 32: SENSITIVIT E 33: SENSITIVIT E 34: SENSITIVIT E 35: SENSITIVIT E 36: SENSITIVIT E 37: SENSITIVIT E 38: SENSITIVIT E 39: SENSITIVIT E 40: SENSITIVIT E 41: SENSITIVIT E 42: SENSITIVIT E 43: SENSITIVIT E 44: SENSITIVIT E 45: TIDE INFO E 46: TIDE INFO E 47: TIDE INFO E 48: ELEMENT E 49: ORIGINAL E 50: CHANGED
es
DIFFUSION OUTS Y DIFFUSION FLAT Y DIFFUSION COE Y RATE OF SEA LEV
ES MINIMAL DEP ES MAXIMUM DE ES BIOMASS ...
ES PRODUCTIVITY ES SCALING COEF REA RITTHEM ....
REA ZUIDGORS ..
REA WAARDE ...
ANCE DATA, AFTE ON MARSH VOLU ON MARSH VOLU ON FLAT VOLUME ON FLAT VOLUME ON CHANNEL VO ON CHANNEL VO ON DELTA VOLUM ON DELTA VOLUM UME AND SURFAC
PROPERTIES SEN ON PARAMETERS TY DIFFUSION CH TY DIFFUSION CHA TY DIFFUSION FLA TY DIFFUSION FLA TY PER PARAMET TY PER PARAMET TY SEA LEVEL RIS TY SEA LEVEL RIS TY SEA LEVEL RIS TY MINIMUM DE TY LOWEST MINIM TY HIGHEST MINI TY MAXIMUM DE TY LOWEST MAXI TY HIGHEST MAX TY LOWEST BIOM TY HIGHEST BIOM TY LOWEST PROD TY ALPHA COEFF TY BETA COEFFIC
RMATION 1955
RMATION 1974
RMATION 1997
PROPERTIES VAL VEGETATION PAR VEGETATION PA
SIDE WORLD Æ
TÆCHANNEL ...
FFICIENTS MARS VEL RISE (INCLUD TH ...
EPTH ...
...
Y ...
FFICIENTS ...
...
...
...
R ROSSINGTON (
UME NO VEGETAT UME WITH VEGET
E NO VEGETATIO E WITH VEGETAT LUME NO VEGET LUME WITH VEG ME NO VEGETATI ME WITH VEGETA CE BOTH SCENAR
SITIVITY ANALYS S SENSITIVITY AN ANNEL OUTSIDE ANNEL OUTSIDE AT CHANNEL WIT AT CHANNEL ONE ER DIFFUSION M ER DIFFUSION M E WITHOUT MAR E WITH ONE MAR E WITH TWO MA EPTH ONE SPECIE MAL DEPTH TWO
MAL DEPTH TWO EPTH ONE SPECIE
MUM DEPTH TW IMUM DEPTH TW MASS TWO SPECIE
MASS TWO SPECIE DUCTION TWO SP ICIENT TWO SPEC CIENT TWO SPECI
...
4 ...
...
LIDATION RUN....
RAMETERS ...
RAMETERS ...
CHANNEL ...
...
H Æ FLAT ...
DING FIXED VOLU
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
(2007) ...
TION CHANGE ...
TATION CHANGE N CHANGE ...
TION CHANGE ....
TATION CHANGE .
ETATION CHANG ON CHANGE ...
ATION CHANGE ..
IOS ...
IS ...
ALYSIS ...
WORLD WITHOU WORLD ONE MA THOUT MARSH ...
E MARSH SPECIES ARSH ‐‐> FLAT 2
ARSH ‐‐> FLAT 2
RSH ...
RSH SPECIES ...
ARSH SPECIES ....
S ...
O SPECIES ...
O SPECIES ...
S ...
WO SPECIES ...
WO SPECIES ...
ES ...
ES ...
PECIES ...
CIES ...
ES ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
UME & SURFACE) ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
GE ...
...
...
...
...
...
UT MARSH ...
ARSH SPECIES ...
...
S ...
200 ...
200 ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
) ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.... 13
.... 14
.... 15
.... 17
.... 18
.... 18
.... 19
.... 19
.... 20
.... 23
.... 25
.... 26
.... 35
.... 40
.... 40
.... 41
.... 41
.... 42
.... 42
.... 43
.... 43
.... 44
.... 54
.... 54
.... 55
.... 55
.... 55
.... 55
.... 55
.... 55
.... 56
.... 56
.... 56
.... 56
.... 56
.... 56
.... 57
.... 57
.... 57
.... 57
.... 57
.... 57
.... 57
.... 58
.... 60
.... 60
.... 60
.... 61
.... 61
.... 61
Sum
Tida inte impo dete long exte The pred follo How how In o
In th inlet but mod stan para pred othe The spec ASM Sche
mmary
al inlets form resting site ortant proce ermines the g‐term devel ended to rep objective of diction corre owing main r w are the pa w reliable are
rder to answ
• How do
• To which
• What ar the salt result?
• How do predictio his research t (UK). There due to a lack There was v del. This is t ndard veget
ameters.
The predict diction. For er elements w
Langstone cies. Due to MITA‐salt ma
eldt.
m an impor for researc esses is the
long‐term d opment. Ma resent estua f this study i esponds to o research que arameters us e the model p wer this main the vegetati h parameter re the differe
marsh and, o regional d
on?
the ASMITA e was also d k of time the very little in he reason w tation para tion of the the marsh t were worse
Harbour es this the ma rsh model to
rtant part o ch due to a exchange of development any tidal inle aries with sal is to validate observed est estion:
sed in the A predictions co n question, th ion paramet rs is the mod ences betwe if necessary differences
A‐salt marsh ata retrieved ese data coul
formation a why two scen ameters and e scenario
the volume than in the s stuary show arsh erodes
o an estuary
of coastlines ll the proce f sediment w t of the tida ets form a ha lt marshes.
e the ASMITA tuaries. This
ASMITA salt ompared wit he following ers affect th del most sens
een the mod y, how can t affect the v
model was d for marshe ld not be tes available for narios were d another
with estima prediction w scenario with
ed a massiv very fast. Th y were this is
in the wor esses in the within the in al inlet. The abitat for sal
A salt marsh s objective is
marsh mode th measured
sub‐researc e ASMITA‐sa sitive?
del predictio the model b vegetation p
applied to es in the We sted.
the vegetat tested in th scenario w ated param was very go h standard p ve dying of he recomme s not the cas
rld. These in ese inlets. O nlet. This sed
ASMITA mo t marshes. A
h application s satisfied b
el related to d data?
h questions alt marsh mo ns and the r be improved parameters
the Langsto estern Scheld
tion parame he model: on
with estima meters show
ood. The pre parameters.
f Spartina A endation is m
se, for exam
nlets are a One of the m
diment exch odel predicts ASMITA has b
n to test how by answering
o each other
are formulat odel?
real behavio to give a b and the m
ne Harbour dt (Netherla eters used in
ne scenario ated vegeta wed a satis
edictions for
Anglica, a m made to test mple the Wes
very most ange s this been
w the g the
r and
ted:
ur of etter model
tidal nds), n the with ation fying r the
marsh t the stern
