Drought Outlook Discussion for August 2016
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
Call in number 877-680-3341
Passcode : 858747
Drought Monitor
2
Drought areas
• Southern California and Western region
• AZNM- a weak monsoon
• Tennessee Valley
• Ohio , Penn and Northeast
% of the CONUS cove 2000
2003
3
P anomalies over the United States
July
•Dryness over the Northeast (3 months)
•Weak monsoon over the AZNM
•Dry Texas
•Dry Southeast
•Wet North Central
Base period 1951-2010
Recent 30 days rainfall anomaly
La Nina infleunce
4
AZ NM
Monsoon Daily rainfall over Arizona and New Mexico Below normal over most places
Thanks Wei Shi
SPI
drought areas:
•California south of 36N, Southern states
•Northeast
•Ohio Valley, Michigan and Pennsylvania, N.Y.
Streamflow (USGS)
6
Feb mean 2016 June
April
• Dryness over the Northwest improving
• Southern California, AZ
• Northeast, Ohio , Pennsylvania, N.Y.
• Southeast :Georgia June •
14-day map of low flow areas
Mean drought indices based on the EMC NLDAS
Integrated Drought index=mean of SRI3, SMP and SPI3 and mapped to a uniform distribution
Concurrence measure- % of members agree with the IDI Thanks for the CPO funding to make this possible
Mean T for July
8
ssta
• OLRA shows suppressed convection over the
Tropical Pacific
ENSO neutral but La Nina watch is on
La Niña is slightly favored to develop during August - October 2016, with about a 55-60%
chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
10
12
• La Nina watch is on
•
60% chance for La Nina to develop in NDJ, 55% in DJF
JAS JFM
2017
NMME SSTA fcsts
13
SON 2016 DJF 2017
The pattern is the same but cold SSTA in the Tropical Pacific weakens a bit
14
ASO La Nina Precipitation Composites
From cpc enso website
Rainfall and Temp forecasts
SON 2016 SON 2016
Not a confident forecasts
Spread is large except the dryness over the Northeast
GFS 1-7 and 8-14 fcsts p anom
16
11-17 aug fcst anomaly 18-24 aug fcst anomaly
CPC seasonal outlook
P ASO Temp ASO
18
SPI6 SPI3
August 2016
September 2016
October 2016
SPI forecasts ICs Jul 2016
/
SPI6 SPI3
September 2016
October 2016 Nov 2016
20
Target date
August 2016
September 2016
October 2016 MSU Lifeng Luo
ESP UCLA/UW
Hydro climate Fcsts
