Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook December 18 – December 24, 2014
A favorable distribution of rainfall was observed over Southern Africa during the past week.
Seasonally-dry weather observed in Eastern Africa.
1) Although good rains were observed over the Greater Horn of Africa during late November and early December, the delayed onset of the October- December rainy season combined with an erratic distribution of rains during the season had already negatively impacted ground conditions in northern Kenya and southern Somalia. As the season is coming to an end, a recovery is unlikely.
2) Insufficient rains since the beginning of October have led to dryness and delayed planting throughout eastern Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, western and central Mozambique, and southern Malawi. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast in western and northern Zambia during the next week, which should help partially alleviate dryness.
3) Prolonged dry spells since October have resulted in large rainfall deficits and below-average vegetation conditions over parts of eastern Zambia, Malawi, western and northern Mozambique. Light to moderate rains are forecast in eastern Zambia and Malawi during the next week, which could sustain drought conditions.
4) While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the northernmost and eastern parts of the country have accumulated below-average rains, affecting agricultural conditions in the region.
Moderate to heavy rains are forecast over the Limpopo province of South Africa during the next week, which should help reduce moisture deficits.
5) Below-average rains since the start of the rainy season have resulted in large moisture deficits and unfavorable ground conditions in western Madagascar. Little to no rainfall is expected across the western half of the island during the next week, potentially worsening conditions on the ground.
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
Dry conditions worsened in eastern Southern Africa.
During the past week, widespread, favorable rains were observed over Southern Africa. Heavy rains fell in southern Angola, northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, South Africa, central Mozambique, and central Madagascar (Figure 1). The heaviest rains were recorded in eastern Zimbabwe and central Mozambique, where rainfall amounts in excess of 140 mm were reported. Meanwhile light to moderate rains were observed mostly elsewhere. In contrast, little to no rainfall was recorded over Tanzania and the northern parts of Malawi and Mozambique. Although this past week’s widespread rains have helped reduce rainfall deficits over many local areas of eastern Southern Africa, particularly, eastern Zimbabwe and western Mozambique, large (> 100 mm) thirty-day moisture deficits have remained in eastern Zambia, central Malawi, and parts of western and northern Mozambique.
An analysis of rainfall percentile since October has indicated that eastern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Zimbabwe, and southwestern Madagascar have accumulated rains ranking only below the 10th percentile, indicating much drier than average conditions (Figure 2). The acute dryness has stemmed from a delayed onset and poor distribution of the rainy season across the eastern portion of Southern Africa. Similar below-average rainfall patterns were observed over parts of the Limpopo and KwaZulu- Natal province of northern and eastern South Africa, respectively.
The insufficient rains have already negatively impacted cropping activities and ground conditions over many local areas. A comparison of the latest vegetation indices to that of the period prior has also indicated worsening conditions in eastern Southern Africa.
During the next week, forecasts suggest continued heavy rains in eastern Angola, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, and southern Mozambique. This should help erode rainfall deficits further over many local areas. Heavy downpours are also expected over the eastern half of Madagascar, potentially leading to localized flooding over some areas. However, light to no rainfall is forecast in western Madagascar, Malawi, eastern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique.
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Dry weather prevailed in Eastern Africa.
During the past week, a dry weather was mostly observed in Eastern Africa. Little to light rains were recorded along coastal Kenya and localized areas of southern Somalia, while suppressed rains were registered elsewhere (Figure 3). Compared to climatology, this past week’s rainfall totals were marginal to slighlty below-average and contributed to maintain thrity-day moisture deficits in northern and central Kenya. Since the beginning of the October-December rainy season, below-average rains have been observed across the dry portions of central Kenya and southern Somalia due to a delayed start and erratic distribution of rainfall throughout the season.
During the next week, dry weather is expected to continue across much of Eastern Africa. Little rains are possible along coastal Kenya. Suppressed rains are forecast elsewhere.
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Valid: December 08 – December 14, 2014
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
Satellite Estimated Rainfall Percentile Valid: October 01 – December 14, 2014
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Valid: December 08 – December 14, 2014
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
