Is the use of fungus the way forward for India? Could AM-rice help to meet the food demand of Mumbai until 2050?

Is the use of fungus

the way forward

for India?

Could AM-rice help to meet the food demand of Mumbai until 2050?

Authors:

James Haringa - 10555285 Joris Hulsman - 10731989 Joost Visser - 10794751 Luc de Vries – 10793631

Tutor: Roosmarijn Bakker, MA Expert supervisor: Kenneth Rijsdijk Course: Interdisciplinary Project Date: 12-12-2016

Table of contents

Introduction

Broad context

Rice is a high commodity food and one of the staples of the Indian diet. Since the 1960s the entire rice (Oryza sativa) production of India more than doubled while the total area of farmland remained the same due to intensification (AIREA, 2012). However, in the past decades a negative trend can be distilled from the agricultural yields which deviates from the successes of the previous Green Revolution (Sengupta, 2008). This is a troublesome development for the country’s main hubs due to the high food demands which have to be met here (Stones, 2011). In particular Mumbai, the country’s most densely populated city seems to be vulnerable. Mumbai is a megacity with over twelve million inhabitants, excluding its metropolitan area, and an average density of one person per 35 square meters (28000 people per square kilometre), which is five times as high as in the city of Amsterdam (Karkaria, 2014). Also its population has doubled in the past twenty-five years, and still continues to grow with an average of three percent per year (PIB, 2015).

Research question

The recent discoveries regarding the opportunities of the symbiosis between root-colonizing arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and rice plants could help relieve food insecurity in Mumbai through enhanced yields in the prospect of climatic adversity. Therefore, in this paper the following question will be answered: To what extent can the large-scale implementation of AM-rice throughout India help in safeguarding the food supply of Mumbai until 2050? The exploration of this technical agricultural measure could ensure a rapid solution to food insecurity, while improving food availability and access through policy measures is more contingent and less economically incentivized.

Scientific relevance

Through compiling the most recent research about the symbiosis between rice and AM-fungi and evaluating the large scale implementation of symbiotic rice cultivars a step will be made towards integrating the collective knowledge about this type of plant and the knowledge regarding the viability of implementing such a crop. Field studies could be set up in response to our theoretical analysis, to further test our hypotheses and to fill in the knowledge gap which exists between AM-rice in the laboratory and in practice. Furthermore, such pilot studies could make it possible to evaluate our economic theoretical framework on a small scale and help determine its potential for real-world applicability.

Societal relevance

The population growth in Mumbai will result in an increased demand for food while the autarkic supply-side of the food economy is simultaneously challenged by the consequences of desertification and land degradation. The average annual temperature in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is actually predicted to rise by 1.5 to 2 °C compared to 2000, by the year 2050 (IPCC, 2007). This will lead to significant changes in the precipitation regime. As a consequence, less water will be available and rice crops will be exposed to an increasing amount of heat stress. Experts from the Washington’s Peterson Institute for International Economics predicted that changes in the local climate could even lead to a reduction of 30% in the Indian agricultural production by the 2080s (Sengupta, 2008). This loss in output is likely to be even higher for rice as this crop requires constant waterlogging for optimal growth.

In addition, Chatterjee et. al (2012) conducted a qualitative randomized study in multiple slums around Mumbai. According to this study over 75% of the households in this area was food insecure, of which around 80% was categorized as severely food insecure, amounting to 60% of the total households in Mumbai's slums. Since 70% of Mumbai’s population live in these types of settlements it can be concluded that as much as 42% (0.7*0.6) of the entire people are severely food insecure. This study emphasized the need for action to assure that sufficient food becomes available for those most in need. The first step in order to enhance food accessibility is to assure a safe and resilient food production.

To compensate for the changes in climate and to offset the increased food demand stemming primarily from population growth and urbanization, a boost in rice yields could be one of the solutions, besides other policy measures such as safeguarding food imports. Ruiz-Sanchez et. al (2010) found that AM-rice was as much as 50% more productive when exposed to heat stress compared to regular rice plants, implying serious yield improvements. Although whether AM-rice outperforms non-inoculated, regular rice seedlings under real world conditions is still subject of current debate.

Sub questions & structure

In order to evaluate the potential of AM-farming in India an interdisciplinary approach is taken. Knowledge from the domains of Biology, Earth sciences and Business studies is used to evaluate the complex, multifaceted endeavour of introducing AM-rice as a viable alternative to regular rice cultivars. The following questions are answered subsequently:

1. What are the prime benefits and limitations of growing AM-rice compared to regular rice?

2. What areas in India are most suitable for growing rice, and what are the prevalent environmental conditions which have to be taken into consideration when optimizing Indian rice yields?

3. How will AM-rice fit into the existing agricultural market and how will this influence the behaviour of potential investors before, and the behaviour of producers after the product has been brought to the market?

Respective Disciplines: 1.Biology and Earth sciences 2. Earth sciences and Physics 3. Business studies

Theoretical framework

Benefits and limitations of AM-rice

Ruiz-Sanchez et. al (2010) demonstrated findings on the benefits of AM-symbiosis against heat-stress. AM-fungi enhanced both the short- and long-term growth development, benefited photosynthetic efficiency under heat stress by more than 40%, reduced the accumulation of harmful secondary metabolites and increased the shoot fresh weight by approximately 50%. A follow up study showed a similar improvement in stomatal conductance of 35% under a well-watered regime and 80% under heat-stress (Ruiz-Sanchez et. al, 2011). It can therefore be concluded that mycorrhizae plants are superior to regular rice cultivars both physiologically and biochemically, especially under conditions of drought.

The internal validity of these studies is high as the causal relationship between AM-symbiosis and the many heat and drought-related benefits is warranted, assuming little experimental errors. The external validity, the way in which the premises of this study translate to the specific agricultural systems around Mumbai is however uncertain. The results can probably be extended to real world situations although the methods used for this study, especially the application of an aerobic soil for a crop which has primarily been grown under waterlogged conditions for thousands of years might be a bold step forward for the Indian farmers. Farming rice on an aerated soil requires an overhaul of the farming system which requires a transfer of knowledge and is ideally accompanied by genetically tailored aerobic rice varieties. The risks involved in this transformation might prove too great for the average Indian rice farmer. In addition, abandoning an age old, culturally ingrained method of farming will require convincing evidence that this new farming system is as reliable as waterlogged farming. Therefore, pilot studies should be implemented in order to test the whether the advantages of AM-rice found in the lab transfer to real world environments. Yang et. al (2012) found that 70% of Phosphorus (Pi) uptake in AM-plants is derived from their symbiotic collaboration, demonstrating the importance of AM in enhancing Pi-uptake under aerobic conditions. The augmentation of Pi-uptake is a synergistic improvement. The over application of this macronutrient has led to its accumulation in the Indian soils (Figure 1) which, if left unattended, will erode and leach from the soils and possibly contribute to causing eutrophication of surface waters (MacDonald et. al, 2010).

This stock of phosphor can now be utilized more efficiently for plant growth. This will lead to a reduction in fertilizer costs due to a reduced demand for phosphorus fertilizer. Since phosphorus cannot be fixed from the atmosphere like nitrogen, and the world phosphorus reserves are located outside India this will simultaneously decrease its import-dependency (Cho,2013).

The external validity of this study about phosphorus uptake can also be questioned. By analysing the role of genes PT11 and PT13 their research simultaneously delves into the potential of this symbiosis for further genetic modifications. A reason for improvement on the other hand would be to use a rice variety which has been specifically tailored for aerobic soil conditions in order to improve the external validity of their research. The use of an aerobically tailored rice variety could also dissipate the border between its own efficacy boost to plant growth, and that of the AM-symbiosis. Scrutinizing and mapping the underlying genetic architecture behind each plant can potentially optimize agricultural yields. The merging of Earth Scientific and Biological insights by adhering to an interdisciplinary approach would be a step towards optimizing the potential of AM-rice and feeding the future population of Mumbai. At the moment the difficulty of finding a successful farming system to optimize rice yields is the major obstacle to overcome regarding the real-world application of AM-colonization in rice cultivars (Vallino et. al, 2008). The caveat between scientifically controlled studies and the unpredictable nature of farming still requires to be explored.

Although the potential of AM-symbiosis for heat resistance and Pi-uptake are qualities which make AM-infused aerobic fields a viable alternative to waterlogged fields, at this moment there is not enough evidence to validate a big-scale agricultural transition to feed Mumbai. Pilots, whether scientific or societal should first be implemented to further gauge the potential of the symbiosis. A transition with such developments stresses the need to further bridge the gap between science and society, internal versus external validity, and demands a transdisciplinary approach.

Environmental analysis

A strategy that has been used for centuries to increase rice yields in India is extensification, the reclamation of more land for farming purposes. Areas which are prone to flooding, such as low-lying river lands and delta areas, have been used for the production of rice for centuries (De Datta, 1981). These areas are most productive during the monsoon season (April to September) because of the large amounts of precipitation.

Figure 2. Major Crop Areas in India (University of Texas, 2008) Bombay is Mumbai. The winds are drawn with arrows. Blue arrows indicate the direction of the winds during the winter months and the red arrows indicate the direction of the winds in the summer months.

Furthermore, coastal areas such as the coast of Maharashtra, the western coast of India, are suitable for the production of rice due to the fact that they are easily irrigated as well. At present, the area surrounding Mumbai is therefore mainly used for rice production (Fig. 2). In this research the focus is only on this area, although it must be acknowledged that the rice that is needed to meet the demand of the population of Mumbai could also come from other regions.

The flooding of the fields in the area of interest, just like in the river and delta areas, mainly occurs in the monsoon season. The large amounts of precipitation in this season are caused by the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during these months (Figure 3). The ITCZ is a belt-like area which shifts incrementally throughout the year between the two Sub-tropical highs which lie 30° north and 30° south of the Equator respectively. In this area the Sun’s rays are perpendicular to the Earth’s surface, as a result the incoming solar radiation travels relatively quickly through the ozone layer, allowing more energy to reach the Earth’s surface. This surplus of energy results in a low pressure zone which is induced through the rising of warm air until the tropopause (transition zone between the troposphere and the stratosphere) creating a vacuum which drags in air currents. This phenomenon leads to monsoon torrents during the time of the year when this stream of air passes an ocean before reaching the continent. Monsoon rains are prevalent in India because the country is surrounded by oceans.

The ITCZ was originally identified in the 1920s as the ‘intertropical front’, naming it a front because it was thought that the zone was a boundary between masses of air with different densities. But after the recognition that wind field convergence in tropical weather production was significant in the 1940s the term ITCZ was applied (Barry & Chorley, 2009). The ITCZ moves during the year due to the Earth’s axial tilt of 23.4°. As the Earth rotates around the Sun this tilt remains the same changing distribution of radiation. The angle causes the ITCZ to be North of the equator during the summer months and South of the equator during the winter months. The ITCZ is lying right across India during the summer months. This causes a slight vacuum drawing in southwestern oceanic winds. These winds bring precipitation in the form of rain with them, causing the area of Mumbai, which is right between the ocean and the ITCZ during the summer months to have high amounts of rainfall during these months. The other half of the year the area of Mumbai is fairly dry due to north-eastern winds rolling over the continent.

However, because of the coastal position of Mumbai there is still enough water available during this part of the year for crop production (Survey of India, 2016). The Coriolis force also increases the amount of rainfall during the summer months. Because Mumbai is North of the equator winds alternate throughout the year from northeast to southwest. As the Earth’s rotates around its axis winds diverge; winds south of the equator generally have a southeast/northwest direction, while winds north of the equator generally have a northeast/southwest direction. The first scientists to describe the Coriolis effect was the Italian Giovanni Battista Riccioli and his assistant Francesco Maria Grimaldi. They noticed that a cannonball fired North deflected to the East as early as 1651 (Graney, 2011). Laplace described the effect in tidal equations in 1778 (Duff, 2014). Coriolis (1835) described the supplementary forces detected in machines with rotating parts, like water wheels, in a rotating wheel of reference. One of the forces detected included a force that arises from the product of the angular velocity of a coordinate system and the projection of a particle's velocity into a

Figure 3. Urbano, L., 2011. Global Atmospheric Circulation and Biomes, Retrieved December 21st, 2016, from Montessori Muddle: http://MontessoriMuddle.org/ .

the ‘compound centrifugal force’ because it has similarities with the centrifugal force (Price, 1862 & Dugas, 1988). The force later became known as the ‘acceleration of Coriolis’ (Webster, 1904) and even later as the Coriolis force (Wilson, 1920). Since the amount of rainfall increases in the area of Mumbai due to the Coriolis this force this area is more usable for the production of rice than areas further northward. The winds over there do not blow from the sea to the land, thus less rainfall occurs in these areas.

The production of rice is furthermore dependent on the type of soil (Figure 4). Since the demand for water of rice plants is high soil that can hold a substantial amount of water are more usable for the production of rice. The most suitable soil type for rice production are red soils. These soils have a porous structure, making these soils able to hold a lot of water. These soils have a red colour due to the presence of iron oxide in these soils. The red soils are known as acrisols in the world reference base for soil resources (2006). In addition, alluvial soils are very usable for rice production, since these soils are fairly saturated with water from rivers.

The industrial viability of AM-rice

So far the scientific context related to the biological and environmental aspects of the research problem have been elaborated upon. However, to clarify how AM-rice could possibly be implemented on a large scale, it is essential to create a business model that predicts the attractiveness of the AM-rice product for the agricultural industry. If the product itself is not attractive enough concerning economic value, there is almost no chance to succeed in the market and therefore it will most certainly be impossible for AM-rice to help Mumbai boost their agricultural production. Economic attractiveness mainly relies on the increase in efficiency AM-rice can contribute to the rice production. An increase in efficiency will make

the product attractive for customers, in this case the agricultural producers, and thereby create a market for producers to produce AM-rice. In addition to the biological and environmental advantages and possibilities for growing this new type of rice a business perspective is required to evaluate the investment opportunities, analyze the future industry structure of AM-rice and examine the competitive relationships that will arise when the product would be implemented.

In any business environment, the first consideration made to contemplate on developing or investing in a new product is the landscape of the new product. The landscape of a new product first of all contains the sort of industry the product will be placed in and secondly the market, within the industry, a product has to compete in. The reasoning behind this is that the industry a product is situated in is one of the big influences on how profitable a product could be in the future. Michael Porter developed one of the leading theories to analyze industries and thereby determining their attractiveness on the basis of profitability in 1979. Porter developed a framework to analyze the competition existent within a certain industry (Porter, 1979) (Figure 5). The ‘Porter’s five forces of competition framework’ states that the eventual return of capital for firms in relationship with their expenditure on capital is always the result of five bases of competitive pressures. In any analyzed industry the five forces remain the same and consist of: threat of new entrants, threat of substitutes, bargaining power of buyers, bargaining power of suppliers and rivalry among existing firms (Porter, 1979).

Firstly, the concept of threat of new entrants relates to the possibility of new firms entering and competing in an industry. The ease with which new firms can enter a new industry depends on the ‘barriers of entry’: the disadvantages new entrants experience compared to established firms (Heflebower, 1957). If an industry does not have any barriers to entry it becomes ‘contestable’ and prices are established on an extremely competitive level, which has a negative influence on profitability (Grant, 2016). Secondly, the concept of threat of substitutes considers possible substitute products that can be used by consumers instead of the original product. When a consumer can easily substitute the product, the price of the original product will be influenced by the substitute price and this in turn influences profitability of the overall industry (Grant, 2016). Thirdly, the competition within an industry is determined by the concept of rivalry among competitors. The general state of competition within an industry influences the way businesses compete through price, advertising, innovation or other factors. Instead of competition based on differentiation of any kind like most luxury goods do; such as Apple laptops or expensive cars for example, competition based on price makes an industry less attractive to compete in, as profitability tends to fall (Grant, 2016). Finally, both the bargaining power of suppliers and buyers has an influence on the strength firms have within an industry and how profitable they can produce and sell their products. As firms have more power over their buyers and raw material suppliers they get a stronger position in the market and can increase their cost efficiency (Grant, 2016).

Porter’s theory is widely spread and accepted as one of the leading frameworks when analyzing competition for scientist focused on business. However, critics state that the framework makes several assumptions that are not correct and point toward a 6th force that is relevant. In 1996 Coyne and Subramaniam pointed out three assumptions made by Porter, which they found incorrect (Coyne & Subramaniam, 1996). The first assumption that is not correct according to them is that Porter assumes that all buyers, suppliers and producers do not have any relationship with each other. Conversely, they state that current industries contain many strategic alliances, between suppliers and producers for example, which makes this assumption incorrect. Secondly, Porter adopts the thought that the main source of advantage is a structural advantage over competing firms. Structural advantage can be gained from advantages over other businesses in cost structure, brand, distribution network and such. However, Coyne and Subramaniam state that this thought is outdated and that frontline execution and insight are just as important sources of advantage in the new business environment (Coyne & Subramaniam, 1996). Thirdly, Porter’s framework assumes that

uncertainty in industries is low and that a firm that would want to enter a new industry could forecast strategy of competitors. Coyne and Subramaniam reject this assumption by stating that there are four levels of uncertainty that should be determined when forecasting strategy.

The relevance of this theory to this specific case can be found in the fact that it is essential to evaluate the business climate AM-rice would come into when it is implemented. As AM-rice could be seen as a competitor to fertilizers and genetically modified crops and thus would have to compete with these products in order to become widely implemented and be able to contribute to the food security of Mumbai. The possible investors for AM-rice would also use a similar approach and check wherever AM-rice is a viable investment.

However, there remains criticism concerning ‘Porters five forces framework’. An example is that Porter’s framework does not directly take into account that firms have competitive interactions with one another and that it does not help to analyse these interactions. This has to do with the fact that Porters solely sees competition in-between companies as a link for industry structure and profitability. To get a better insight into the way competition amongst companies works and show how their decision-making is influenced by one another the ‘Game Theory’ was applied. The theory itself was developed by John van Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern in 1944 and had as purpose to be utilized to comprehend the behaviour of actors in circumstances where their fortunes were dependent on each other (Von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944). This theory was utilized in the scope of business study to understand competitive interactions and better substantiate strategic choices that are made by companies based on their competition (Brandenburger & Nalebuff, 1995).

When used in practical business situations the Game theory showed that once analyzing relationships between competitors, they do not always have to be entirely competitive in nature. Porter’s five forces framework assumes that the relationships between companies are always competitive and therefore Brandenburger & Nalebuff proposed to add a 6th force to the framework named ‘complements’ (Brandenburger & Nalebuff, 2011). This proposition was influenced by the use of Game theory and showed that when two products complement each other, the value of both products tends to go up. For example, the value of the DVD-player increased when the offer of DVD’s increase over the years. Furthermore, the exact model used from Game theory as evidence for the fact that complementary products add value to each other was the Prisoner’s dilemma (Grant, 2016). In essence the Prisoner’s

of many industries there is a lack of cooperation between companies and the added value of possible cooperation’s is not always captured. This is the case because the firms primarily focus on making profit for themselves and do not see the possible added value in other companies and industries.

To understand the usefulness of this theory for this specific case it is important to understand that when AM-rice turns out to be a viable option to boost the food production in Mumbai the market that would emerge would include competitive interactions. The strategic choices, made by companies that start investing in AM-rice implementation, would be led by the behavioral norms given by the Game theory. Furthermore, Game theory shows that AM-rice could also fit into the position of sixth force for Porters forces of competition framework, by being a complement to either fertilizers or other production enhancing products. By applying the Porters five forces in combination with the game theory the critics mentioned earlier can be incorporated to make it a more complete framework, which will give a proper basis to analyze the future competitive business environment of AM-rice.

Also, the question remains to what extend an increased rice production would serve the people of Mumbai in terms of food security. India does export rice currently, so it could be the case that they would export the increased yield entirely because they could get a higher price on the world food market. However, data shows that India’s export – production ratio’s average, dived export per year by production per year and take the average of all years, is 3.15% since 1995 (Global Rice Science Partnership, 2012). This percentage will, based on the data presented above, remain the same even if the yields are increasing due to the implementation of AM-rice. Assuming that the distribution of the increased yield across India will remain the same as it is now, this thus means that the people of Mumbai will encounter an improved food security in terms of absolute numbers. 0,00% 1,00% 2,00% 3,00% 4,00% 5,00% 6,00% 7,00% 8,00% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Export / Production ratio per year

Graph 1. Plot of the export / production ratio per year, 1995-2013.

Finally, an analysis of the demand side of the product needs to be made. It is yet impossible to completely make such an analysis since AM-rice is not in production currently, but still in the developing stage, which means that real numbers on the costs of producing AM-rice seeds are missing. Moreover, the precise costs of overhauling the system that farmers nowadays use for their rice production, to a system that is suitable for AM-rice production as described in the first part of the theoretical framework, are missing as well. It remains unclear what is necessary for this switch, and so the costs remain unclear as well. However, what is clear, is that the Indian government subsidizes agricultural processes in a generous manner. Statistics show that the government subsidizes 50% of the general costs that farmers make (Global Rice Science Partnership, 2012). This means that farmers will be supported by their government when they wish to overhaul their farming system to suit AM-rice, making the overhaul process much less costly (Qaim, 2009). Furthermore, with the help of the government and the attractive benefits distribution (30% farmers, 42% consumers, Figure 6), it can be assumed that the demand will be large since farmers can easily increase their efficiency of production, receive the eventual benefits and will be helped with their investments. Moreover, as opposed to GM-rice (genetic modification), AM-rice will have the consumers support since it utilizes a natural symbiosis and has nothing to do with the sometimes contentious practices of genetic modification.

Methods

Since the aim of this research is to propose a strategy to improve the food security of the population of Mumbai firstly the demand for food of this population needs to be know. The demand for food has been determined through theoretical research. Based on the fact that rice forms one of the staple foods of the Indian diet the focus of this research is on improving the rice production to improve the availability of food and thereby the food security. Different strategies to improve the rice production by either increasing the total amount of rice produced or improving the quality of the rice produced were being investigated. Some theoretical research showed improving the quality of the rice produced was considered to be too difficult. Making rice more nutritious for instance appeared to be nearly impossible. Thus the focus of this research came to be on improving the rice production through increasing the amount of rice produced. From theoretical research it was concluded that there is a need to increase the amount of rice produced, because the population of Mumbai is growing as well as the fact that climate change will cause drought in the areas used to produce the rice for Mumbai nowadays. Looking at the land areas that could be used for rice production and the land areas that are already used for rice production it can be concluded that increasing the rice production through using more land for rice production would not increase the total amount of rice produced significantly, since almost all land that could be used for rice production is already used for rice production. Thus the rice production can only increase through growing rice in a more efficient way.

After looking through several researches on increasing yields of rice through strategies already in practice, the decision was made to look for a strategy that would increase the production of rice that had not been implemented yet. A new strategy was considered to be more interesting, because both how this strategy would work and how this strategy would be implemented had to be looked into more extensively than when a strategy would have been chosen that had already been implemented elsewhere. In recent lab experiments regarding the symbiosis between root-colonizing arbuscular mycorrhizal and several different crops, including rice, the opportunities of that symbiosis were discovered. The introduction of this symbiosis seemed an ideal strategy to increase the rice production for Mumbai, mostly due to the fact that this symbiosis makes plants more drought resistant and that climate change is causing drought in the areas used for rice production. Integrating the knowledge gathered from these lab experiments and Porters five forces of competition framework, by organizing the insights received from both, an interdisciplinary overview on the costs and benefits of the

introduction of this strategy has been created. Porters five forces for competition framework is used to get an insight on whether it is attractive to introduce a new product within an industry comparing it with products within this industry. Furthermore, this research looks at who will benefit from the introduction of this new strategy. It is calculated what percentage of rice produced is used for export and the consequences of the introduction of the AM-symbiosis for farmers, companies and the population of Mumbai are discussed. This research is both qualitative, since it discusses how different parties are influenced by the production of AM-rice, and quantitative, because an estimation is made on how much rice will be produced through the use of arbuscular mycorrhizal.

Results

When the climate and soil maps are combined it can be seen that most of the production of rice in India is situated in the areas with red or alluvial soils already. The area surrounding Mumbai consisting of red soils is also almost fully used for the production of rice. Only small parts of the area containing red soils are used by forest and shrub land. Therefore, it can be concluded that not much additional land can be exploited for the production of rice. Since only a small portion of the potential farmland in India can be used for rice production other solutions should be found to increase the production of rice to meet the demand for food of the population of Mumbai until 2050. The use of AM is one of the strategies that could be useful to increase the production of rice without increasing the amount of land that needs to be used. The use of AM is likely to increase the production of rice on the soils it is produced right now as well as make the production of rice on other soils (with similar features) possible. Studies have shown the fresh root mass of plants has increased by 50% through the use of AM. Assuming the weight of the plant is equally distributed over the plant the eventual production of rice could be increased by 50% as well. Furthermore, the use of AM causes the plants on which AM is used to take up more phosphorus. This could decrease the need to use fertilizers containing phosphorus. Because of this less fertilizer will have to be imported making the area of interest less dependent on other areas for their food production. The possible pitfalls could be that research suddenly discovers that the AM-rice has less nutrients than regular rice or that the increase in yield is less than 50%, which would mean a less viable investment. However, the occurrence of these pitfalls is assumed to be rather unlikely.

rice species that have an increased efficiency in production. By using Porters five forces framework the position of AM-rice in the rice industry can be analysed and an insight can be given into the eventual scale it is likely to be produced in the future. Since AM-rice is a rather new product and the development of the product is still in progress it is hard to predict how many companies are willing to invest in cultivating this symbiotic relationship, this speaks to the first force of Porter, ‘threat of new entrants’. However, there is a high chance that the AM-symbiosis will be patented at the moment a company starts exploiting this technique on an industrial scale. Assuming the symbiosis will be patented the threat of entrants is rather low since the symbiosis itself does not have any substitutes that are currently known. It is assumed that AM-rice will be patented since companies like Monsanto patent all of their projects, and on the basis of the study conducted by Qaim (2009). On average, a patent on agricultural development in India will last 20 years (Intellectual property India, 2013).

The threat of substitutes for AM-rice is low because the symbiosis is difficult to copy since it will be patented and few similar plant growth enhancers exist. Also, AM-rice does not have to compete with major businesses from the fertilizer industry, but can work in collaboration with them to increase efficiency of production. Since fertilizers can be used in conjunction with AM-fungi to optimize growth it can simultaneously invigorate this market, both can profit from each other.

The third and fourth force in Porters five force’s framework, bargaining of suppliers and buyers, can be combined. The power of both buyer and supplier will be low. Suppliers of the AM-rice will be supplying the regular rice seeds to the “middleman” (Figure 7) that are currently used in rice production. Since this is a major industry already with a large variety of products and producers the choice for different seeds will be high. This leads to a comfortable position for the AM-rice industry in which they have a wide choice and can buy for a fair market price since they can easily switch from supplier. Furthermore, the buyers of AM-rice will have to deal with a producer, again the “middleman”, who has most likely patented the symbiosis and this producer will probably be the sole seller. Therefore, the choice to buy for rice producers will be small and the power of AM-rice producers will be high over them. Also, the fact that AM-rice is an addition to current products makes it a flexible product with a potential for big scale production. The different parties that are involved are visualised in a simplified diagram (Figure 7).

Figure 7. A simplified visualisation of the different parties involved in the AM-industry Finally, the fifth force is titled ‘the rivalry amongst existing firms’. As elaborated on earlier, there will be low to non-existing competition with currently existing products. It is more likely to be a complement to other products and therefore the sixth force, mentioned in the theoretical framework, will be present here. The moment AM-rice is implemented the nutrient uptake increases and will thereby increase the growth of the rice plants. However, fertilizers can play a role in supplying these nutrients because the soil the rice is grown on will not have the luxury of unlimited nutrient supplies.

Conclusion

Enhancing the physiological and biochemical resilience of rice plants against perturbations, in particular to drought and heat stress, through the application of mycorrhizal root networks, seems to be a process which could become a vital component of the Indian rice industry. However, in order to facilitate a transition from waterlogged to aerobic farming an overhaul of the current farming system is required. This challenge might prove too great for the average Indian farmer unless the government continues with their subsidy policy. Pilot studies are necessary to further accommodate this transformation. The improved ability of rice plants to extract phosphorus from the soil is another noteworthy result of the symbiosis. This development could lead to a reduction in costs and reduce the import-dependency on phosphorus fertilizer while simultaneously preventing leaching. Hereby the accumulated phosphorus in the soil is utilized most efficiently (before it erodes) and eutrophication, a consequence of this process, is prevented. Although it is yet impossible to compose a price for the AM implementation, the possible economic benefits of the implementation are clear and present. Therefore, it can be concluded that AM-rice could indeed be the way forward for Mumbai.

Discussion

The use of AM on rice is a strategy proposed to increase the production of rice. This strategy is proposed partly because not much additional land could be used for rice production when looked at the areas which have soils that are suitable for rice production. There are however still areas that could be used for the production of rice that are not yet used for rice production. Using these areas will create controversy because these areas are mostly used as shrub land at the moment and therefore form the habitat for lots of animals. Furthermore, the use of AM could make the production of rice on soils that can not be used for rice production in its current form possible. Since AM-rice should be produced in aerobic soils, soils that have a high water holding capacity are no longer the only soils suitable for rice production. This might increase the possibilities of increasing the rice production through the use of AM-rice even more.

How much rice will be produced additionally because of the AM-symbiosis is uncertain. It is known that the fresh root weight of plants increases by 50% when they are grown in symbiosis with the AM-fungi, this however does not imply the weight of the plant will be evenly distributed throughout the plant. Therefore, stating that the yield will increase by 50% by using the AM-symbiosis can be considered to be bold. Furthermore, it is still uncertain to what extent the use of AM will improve the nutrient uptake of the plants. The biggest obstacle for the implementation of AM-rice on a large scale however is the need for growing rice in an aerobic environment. How much the use of arbuscular mycorrhizae in symbiosis with rice plants will be beneficial thus should be thoroughly investigated through lab experiments before the symbiosis could be implemented in real life.

Recommendations

Finally, a few recommendations could be made for future research into this subject. First of all, pilot studies should be implemented to gauge the necessary investments, and the return rate of aerobic AM-rice. Ideally the pilot studies should be set-up in the form of field studies, testing the net-return of AM-rice in comparison to regular rice similar to the setup of Vallino et. al (2009) with the purpose to close the gap between scientific research and societal implementation. In this way the real-world applicability of aerobic AM-rice farms can be tested. If it turns out that the beneficial properties found in the laboratory transfer to the real world a process of valorisation can start where farmers are instructed on setting up and perpetuating aerobic farming systems. Once the effectiveness of this system is established the use of AM-fungi in conjunction with rice varieties genetically tailored to thrive under aerobic soil conditions can be investigated. However, the delay between starting these field studies, establishing the effectiveness of aerobic AM-farming, and educating a large portion of the Indian farmers should be taken into consideration. Nonetheless, even with a small delay, AM-rice could contribute significantly on a 30-year time scale. Once the potential of AM-fungi to improve vital mechanisms and the inhibition of detrimental forces in rice plants is established it should inspire similar studies analyzing the potential of this symbiotic relationship for other major crops as well. Furthermore, additional research into the total costs of implementing AM-rice on a large scale should be conducted. Only then it would become clear wherever the investment in AM-rice is really as viable as it looks.

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