THE FEASIBILITY OF A TRANSITION TO AN ELECTRIC CAR SECTOR IN THE NETHERLANDS

INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH

THE FEASIBILITY OF A TRANSITION TO AN ELECTRIC CAR

SECTOR IN THE NETHERLANDS

Interdisciplinary Project Future Planet Studies Group D

Astrid Ruiter 27-11-2016

Wai Yin Liu 10787720 Tos Tegenbosch 10810277 Joost Elfers 10805958 Toon van Holthe tot Echten 10798595 Gergo Nemeth 10776311

In this literature study, the feasibility of the transition from cars powered by conventional

sources into electrical vehicles is reviewed. To examine this feasibility, the possibilities and

limitations of a large-scale transition towards electric vehicles are analysed. Preliminary

research has been done in order to describe the theoretical fundamentals. These

fundamentals are interconnected in a concept map. Charging strategies, the lithium ion

battery and the incentives are the main topics in this research. These themes were found

using the concept map and give insight in interdisciplinary topics. Eventually it can be

concluded that the most important limitation for a large-scale transition to electrical vehicles is the

Content

2. Methodology

5

2.2. An Interdisciplinary Approach 5

2.3. Integrating Disciplinary Perspectives 6

3. Theoretical Fundamentals of Several Disciplines

7

3.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 7

3.2. (inter-)national policies and business for EV stimulation 7

3.3 Planning for EVs 9

3.4. Lithium Availability and The Possible Limitations 10 3.5. Visualization of concepts 11

4. Limitations and Possibilities

13

4.2. Economic and Political/Spatial Planning Incentives 14

4.3. The EV battery 16

4.4. Charging 17

5. Conclusions and Discussion

20

5.1. Conclusion

20

5.2. Discussion

21

6. References

22

1. Introduction, Research Question and Aim

The climate agreement of Paris on December 12th 2015 will have significant impact on government policies regarding sustainability. The conference hosted 195 countries and is leading the global challenge of sustainability and climate improvement. Those countries accepted the objective of keeping the global temperature rise well under 2 °C, as ultimate endeavour under 1,5 °C. The agreement is furthermore set to undertow the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to realise a decrease of global emissions and an increase of global environmental resilience (United Nations, 2016).

The Dutch government also signed the agreement and has set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 80-95% by 2050 (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 2016). To achieve this decrease, a transition to sustainable energy must be realized. To structure this transition, the Dutch government distinguished 4 energy functions: energy used for the heating of buildings, industry process-heat, power and light, and transport (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 2016). An important ambition is to realize an emission reduction of 60% by 2050 in the transport sector. The use of electric vehicles (EVs) could be a significant actor for realizing this goal (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 2016). The amount of emission that can be reduced by using EVs is mainly dependent on the power source that is used for generating the electricity. However, this research will mainly focus on the feasibility of a large-scale transition, instead of the exact emission reduction of the transition.

As aforementioned, a transition to electric driving can be the key to realizing the 2050 goals. Such a transition is specifically suitable for The Netherlands. According to Zubaryeva et al. (2012), the Netherlands has the potential to become a leader in the EV market. The two most important reasons are the high Dutch GDP and the high percentage of urban environment (Zubaryeva et al., 2012). The high Dutch GDP increases financial possibilities for producers and consumers to engage in the implementation of EVs. In this research only plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) are considered and named as EVs. To determine to what extent this transition can take place the following research question will be answered:

What are the possibilities and limitations of a large-scale transition towards the use of electric vehicles in order to help meet greenhouse gas reduction targets in the Netherlands?

This research is divided in four sections. First, the methodology on how this paper is constructed will be examined. Since a transition is a complex process involving many actors, an interdisciplinary approach is used. The disciplines used are Planning Sciences, Business Sciences and Earth Sciences. This is further explained in section 2. Secondly, the theoretical and conceptual fundamentals of the three different disciplines will be presented. Hereafter, the possibilities and limitations of EVs are examined with an interdisciplinary approach. This paper will be concluded with a conclusion and discussion.

2.1. An Interdisciplinary Approach

As aforementioned, this research report uses an interdisciplinary approach. This report follows the definition of interdisciplinary research as defined by The National Academy of Science (2005, as cited in Rutting et al. 2016):

“Interdisciplinary research is a mode of research in which an individual scientist or a team of scientist integrates information, data, techniques, tools, perspectives, concepts, and/or theories from two or more disciplines or bodies of specialized knowledge, with the objective to advance fundamental understanding or to solve problems whose solutions are beyond the scope of a single discipline or area of research practice.”

The main reason why interdisciplinarity is used is because of the inherent complexity of a transition to large-scale Electric Vehicle (EV) use. Complexity is seen as the main cause of performing an interdisciplinary research. Four factors define a system as complex: first, there need to be several agents involved. In the case of a Dutch transition, this could be the government, consumers and producers of EVs. Secondly, these agents need to be interconnected and their behaviour must influence each other. Thirdly, some sort of self-organization between agents must take place as a result of feedback loops. At last, agents need to adapt to change or be able to learn in a complex system, these complex adaptive systems (CAS) are often unpredictable (Rutting et al., 2016). It will become more apparent in the remainder of this report that the four criteria of complexity are definitely present in this study of a transition to large-scale EV use in the Netherlands, thus justifying the use of an interdisciplinary research.

2.2. Research Methods

The foundation of this report consists of a literature analysis from three different disciplines: Earth Sciences, Business Studies and Planning Sciences. In addition, an interview is conducted with Bart Vertelman, project leader of Plan Amsterdam: The Electric City.

From the earth scientific point of view, the availability of lithium and the effects of lithium-ores mining on the environment will be investigated. Lithium mining is needed for the production of the batteries which the EVs run on. Lithium ores are scarce so this could be a future problem and limitation to the production of EVs.

The planning perspective will investigate charging infrastructure and different (smart) charging strategies. Charging is an important barrier to the large-scale introduction of EVs, as unregulated charging could lead to problems in the electricity network (Banez-Chicharro et al., 2013). However, EVs offer many potential benefits to the electric grid by means of smart charging. Furthermore, the planning perspective will also look at the most important international and national (spatial) policies that will have influence on the usage of the EV. Analysing the possibilities of different charging strategies and planning policies should give insights in the feasibility of a large-scale transition into the use of electric cars in the Netherlands.

From a business perspective different business models concerning the distribution of EVs will be compared. This is done in order to investigate whether or not alternative business models (eg. leasing, car sharing, battery swapping etc.) could be better suited to stimulate a transition to EVs. Furthermore, the economic stimulants and deterrents for electric driving will be analysed by means of a literature review. By analysing the economic incentives for using EVs, the possibilities of the transition to electric driving can be examined. Primarily incentives for consumers and producers tend to determine the extent to what electric driving will have an effect on the emission of greenhouse gasses. The incentives that have a negative influence on electric driving will also be mentioned, because these have an influence on the limitations of the transition towards electric driving.

By analysing and combining the outcomes of these individual literature studies, areas of common ground are created and thus creating an interdisciplinary approach, which will be used to form an interdisciplinary report in section 4.

2.3. Integrating Disciplinary Perspectives

After individual research from the three disciplines, the main results will be integrated using the strategy of organization proposed in Repko (2012). By identifying commonality in concepts and assumptions we can organise them using a concept map. In this way different concepts and processes are presented in one integrated visualization. This concept map provides a basis to elaborate the common ground and come up with interdisciplinary results, as it integrates the concepts of the different disciplines.

3. Theoretical Fundamentals

This chapter encapsulates the theoretical, conceptual and fundamental findings of the individual research reports that were conducted. As this research is interdisciplinary, the findings from the different disciplines are interconnected.

3.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Concerns over climate change related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasing (Hoen and Koetse, 2014). More than 90% of the global transport sector is powered by fuels derived from oil (Van Vliet et al., 2011). The introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) seems to be a useful way to reduce the environmental impact of the transport sector.

GHG emissions from EVs depend most on the fuel type used in the generation of electricity for charging. These emissions range between 0 g km−1 using renewable energy, and 155 g km−1 when using energy from coal-based plant. A coal plant is used as a reference point as it emits the highest amount of GHGs while producing energy. There is discussion about what emissions intensity (gCO2e/kWh) should be assigned to the electricity used by electric vehicles (Yang, 2011). In general, EVs reduce total CO2 emissions even in electricity systems with a high portion of conventional energy, due to the high efficiency of an electric motor in comparison to conventional cars (Richardson, 2013). When including energy sources based on the generation capacity projected for the Netherlands in 2015, electricity for EV charging would largely be generated using gas, emitting 35–77 g CO2 eq km−1 (Van Vliet et al., 2011). However, considering the Dutch renewable energy targets, these emissions should be decreased to reach the 2050 objectives.

3.2. (Inter)national policies and business for electric vehicle stimulation

Planning practices are important in stimulating the use of EVs, especially policymaking at international and national level. An international policy that will influence the transition to EVs in the Netherlands is the European Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure 2014/94/EU of the European Parliament (2014). This directive contains standard rules, regulations and minimum requirements on rolling out EU’s alternative fuels infrastructure, charging infrastructure for EVs falls within this category (European Parliament, 2014). Every EU country needs to implement this directive as a national policy framework and help develop the market for alternative transport fuels. Currently Directive 2014/94/EU is a guideline, it gives EU countries the opportunity to come up with their own policies to support EVs and to ensure the necessary infrastructure will be built. By 2020, every EU country needs to have built up sufficient charging infrastructure so it allows EVs to travel around populated areas (European Parliament, 2014).

To help achieve this goal at a national level, Bakker and Trip (2013) have come up with several measures:

- Support citizens and businesses by using subsidies and policies in favour of EVs. Car-sharing can also be implemented. Car-sharing, according to the experts, are suitable for use in cities. - Regulatory measures regarding parking and charging need to be formulated to increase

efficiency of usage.

- Provide information about charging points and EVs to raise awareness. 3.2.1. Economic Incentives

Economic incentives are considered to be one of the more important measures by Bakker and Trip (2013). When considering economic incentives for EVs, the theory of human behaviour must be explained, as this theory states that the behaviour of humans is predominantly determined by social

norms and economic incentives (Lindbeck et al., 1999). Therefore,economic incentives have significant influence on whether people buy EVs or not.

Second, the theory of supply and demand is used, a central theory of theoretical economics (Gale, 1955). According to this theory, rising prices will decrease demand for EVs and declining prices will increase demand. This theory gives information on how economic incentives change by rising or ascending prices of the EVs, substitutes and complementary products.

Furthermore, the concept of economies of scale must be examined. This concept explains that increasing production lowers overall costs because of the advantages the increase in scale provides. The concept of economies of scale could have significant impact when combined with the theory of supply. Specifically, economies of scale could lower EV prices because of the increased scale. Hereafter, demand for EVs will grow because overall prices have declined.

3.2.2. Comparing Business Models

For the price decreasing effect of economies of scale to occur, an initial and growing demand in a product is necessary. It will be difficult to reach this threshold as the current EV prices are high stunting the demand. An alternative manner to decrease prices would be to utilize an alternative business model. Although there is no consensus on the exact definition of the term business model as of yet (Zott et al, 2011), one of the most influential frameworks is the one provided by

Osterwalder et al. (2005). In short, Osterwalder et al. (2005) define a business model as the blueprint of how a company does business and serves as a building plan that allows the business structure and systems to be designed and realized. The following three models have been examined:

1. The Vehicle Purchasing Model:

The Vehicle Purchasing Model is currently the most employed model for EVs. The procedure is almost identical to the purchase of a conventional car: The buyer owns the car and everything in it. The only differencebetween electric and conventional vehicles is that EVs requires charging infrastructure, usually installed at a by the customer desired location (Weiller et al., 2015).

2. The Battery Leasing Model:

In this model the customer purchases the car without the batteries and leases the batteries. In return for a monthly fee, dependent on a fixed number of kilometers, the customer is provided with a battery and charging infrastructure (Christensen et al, 2012). The customer can then either charge the leashed battery at the provided charging station or swap it out for a new one. In this model the customer does not pay for the electricity as this is covered by the monthly fee (Weiller et al., 2015).

3. The Car Sharing model:

Car sharing is a concept where a person is temporarily renting a car. With this business model customers pay a tariff depending on either the amount of time they use the car, the distance driven or a combination of the two (Weiller et al., 2015).

3.3. Planning for Electric Vehicles

Spatial interventions are also important for a transition to electric driving. Cities and their planners should come up with a strategic spatial plan of where charging points should be located, instead of placing them on demand (Bakker and Trip, 2013). According to Sierzchula et al. (2014), the

perception of EVs can be influenced in a positive way by setting up charging points at strategic (public) locations and implementing policies that focus on increasing the amount of charging stations. As consumers see more EVs and EV affiliated infrastructure, the perceptions of EVs will be positively changed which will increase their market attractiveness (Sierzchula et al., 2014). Spatial policies are therefore complementary to social and economic (planning) policies.

Steinhilber et al. (2013) state in their work that the lack of well formulated spatial planning policies are barriers that hinder the use of EVs in Germany and the United Kingdom. For instance, in both countries, there is no clear regulation as to where charging infrastructure should be installed. EV-exclusive parking spaces in inner-cities also causes shortages of parking spaces in both countries. Unclear regulation and the lack of government strategies regarding the building of (charging) infrastructure remain important barriers.

3.3.1. Theory of structure and agency

An important theory in social (planning) sciences for this research is the theory of structure and agency. A social structure can be seen as the pattern of social life that are not individuals and actually influences and determines conditions, thoughts and actions of individuals or human agents (Hays, 1994). The government is an example of a social structure, for they define rules that individuals have to follow. However, according to Anthony Giddens (1976, as cited in Sewell, 1992) structures must not be conceptualized as simply placing constraints on human agency, but also enabling. It provides possibilities to innovate. Using the theory in this research will give insights on whether it is the government that needs to start a transition to large-scale electric driving by producing policies and regulations, or that the consumers’ desire to use EVs needs to influence the policy of governments. 3.3.2. Unregulated Charging and Alternative Strategies

The charging pattern of EVs has been identified in many studies (e.g. Richardson, 2013; van Vliet et al., 2011; Banez-Chicharro et al., 2013) as the main factor that determines the impact that EVs have on the power system. Current EV charging patterns in the Netherlands take place with none or little external control, further referred to as unregulated charging. In this system the vehicle immediately begins charging as soon as it is connected to the grid, which is usually when users return home after work (Richardson, 2013). Unregulated charging results in a rise of the peak demand, increasing system variable costs while decreasing the reliability of the power system (Banez-Chicharro et al., 2013).

The battery of an EV can be recharged from the electricity grid with varying measures of external control, generally defined as charging strategies. An alternative charging strategy is assumed to be necessary to avoid capacity problems in the electricity network (Bellekom et al., 2012). Smart charging involves some measure of intelligent control over the charging of the vehicle by a system operator. The idea behind smart charging is to charge the vehicle when it is most beneficial based on different metrics. The rate of charge can be varied within certain limits; the most basic limit being that the vehicle must be fully charged by morning (Richardson, 2013).

The integration of renewable energy into the current electricity system is complex (Bellekom et al., 2012). Renewable energy sources are infrequent and the ability to predict production is limited. Moreover, renewable energy production has no correlation to changes in energy demand (Richardson, 2013). Peak moments of renewable energy production could cause an electricity surplus

in the Netherlands in the near future (Bellekom et al., 2012). Therefore, storage is required when excess electricity is produced. One possible way of doing that is to connect EVs to the grid, as those connected EVs can store electricity and thereby reduce the surplus. Such a buffer not only assists the electricity system but also the transport system. The EV battery can be charged at times of low electricity demand and excess electricity production.

3.4. Lithium Availability and the Possible Limitations

In addition to the aforementioned concepts and theories, it is important to know the limitations and possibilities of the lithium ion battery. There are still uncertainties concerning the future of the lithium battery, since it has only been used for a relatively short time. The ultimate retrievable resources (URR) of lithium is able to keep up with the rising demand of the fast-growing lithium ion battery production for the coming few decades. However, the distribution of the element is very uneven over the world. Most of the lithium is currentlymined in brine lakes located in South America. The majority of the countries in South America might not have the technologies and infrastructureto be able to keep up with the increasing demand of lithium (Oliveira et al., 2015).

Figure 1: Litmium production in litihium per year for different countries and the cumulative total are shown in this figure (Mohr et al., 2012).

The lifespan of lithium ion batteries is not infinite. The battery loses lithium ions over time, this is called metal deposition or lattice deformation (Armand, 2001). In practice the lithium ion battery loses capacity with each charging cycle. When the battery loses its functionality, it is important that the material will be recycled (Kushnir and Sandén, 2012). Kunshnir and Sandén (2012) calculated that the cumulative lithium demand will increase over the century with a factor of four compared to a situation where 100% of all batteries would be recycled.

3.5. Visualization of Concepts

The visualization of the concepts of the individual scientific papers, as show on the following page, represents the most important interdisciplinary findings. The concept mappresented in figure 2 shows all the variables which have influence on the potential of EVs. Following the arrows in the figure, it is noticeable that almost all the relations have a direct or indirect effect on the EVs

potential. The figure is used to get a better understanding of the interdisciplinary possibilities and limitations, as it shows the connection between different concepts. With the help of the concept map, several interdisciplinary interactions were found. These interactions narrowed down into the three concepts that have the biggest effect on EV potential. These concepts -economic incentives, the battery and charging- are examined in respectively section 4.2., 4.3. and 4.4.

Figure 2: Concept map of the important concepts of all disciplines interconnected. Ev potential is registered at the center of the map, as it is influenced by all other concepts.

The following paragraph presents the interdisciplinary findings regarding the possibilities and limitations of large-scale electric vehicle (EV) usage in the Netherlands. First, a short summary of the current situation of EVs in the Netherlands will be presented. Secondly, the effects of economic, social and regulatory incentives will be examined. Thirdly, the EV battery will be discussed. This includes the current situation, as well as future perspectives (i.e. technological development and lithium availability). At last EV charging will be examined, including charging infrastructure and different charging strategies. As the results will show, these four main subjects are strongly interconnected.

4.1. Current Situation in The Netherlands

As the Dutch government has acknowledged that barriers of a transition to sustainability, like large-scale EV use, are partly caused by the compartmentalization of (government) institutions and the lack of effective joint policy formulation (VROM, 2001) the aspect of interdisciplinarity increases importance. In this paper, only plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) are considered and named as EVs.

As mentioned in the introduction, the applicability of EVs in the Netherlands is evident when looking at the country’s geographic and socio-economic characteristics. The Netherlands has a high

population density of around 400 people per square kilometer (van Dijk, n.d.). In the heavily urbanized Randstad area of the Netherlands (the region between Amsterdam, The Hague, Utrecht and Rotterdam) population density is even higher at about 1500 people per square kilometer (van Dijk, n.d.). People in the Netherlands travel around 15 – 30 kilometer a day by car (van Dijk, n.d.). There are about 7.2 million cars in the Netherlands, almost 1 car per 2 inhabitants. This number excludes vehicles for transport, distribution and public transportation (van Dijk, n.d.). These statistics suggest a large potential for the implementation of EVs to replace existing combustion engine vehicles. In addition, the Dutch population is characterized by a relatively high level of education and high GDP per capita (van Dijk, n.d.) making them more susceptible to using and buying new

innovative technology, such as EVs. Moreover, the Netherlands are characterized by an efficient and high quality infrastructure regarding roads, public transport, grids and ICT.

Concluding, the Dutch car market has significant suitability for a large-scale transition towards electric driving. As in figure 3, the total amount of EVs in The Netherlands is indeed growing. This amount is calculated to grow steadily to 140.000 EVs in 2020(ING, 2011).

Figure 3: Amount of EVs 2010-2020 in The Netherlands, according to ING (2011).

4.2. Economic and Political/Spatial Planning Incentives

The first thing that acts as an economic incentive for a large-scale implementation of EVs, the first thing that acts as an incentive is vehicle and fuel price. The impact of fuel prices for conventional cars on the attractivity of EVs is significant, according to several researches (Small & Dender, 2007; Eppstein et al., 2011; Hidrue et al., 2011; Galaggher & Muehlegger, 2011; Perdiguerero & Jimenez, 2012). These papers collectively conclude that high conventional fuel prices increase the industry attractiveness of EVs. Next, the vehicle purchase prices are considered. According to the ANWB (2016), EVs are between €9.000 and €17.000 more expensive than conventional cars. The main contributor of this high price is the battery pack. Perdiguero and Jimenez (2012) have concluded that the battery cost is one of the main barriers for a transition towards large-scale electric driving, as this cost is responsible for 23% to 58% of the total vehicle price. This implicates that changes in the costs of battery packs will have significant impact on the total EV price. As the theory of supply and demand will conclude, lowered prices will increase demand and therefore increase the possible impact of the large-scale transition towards electric driving. Currently, the production price for the batteries is approximately 300 USD/kWh and is decreasing between 6% to 9% annually (Riesz et al, 2016). For EVs to become price competitive with ICE vehicles, this cost needs to decrease to approximately 130 USD/kWh. This is predicted to be achieved by 2025-2030 (Riesz et al, 2016). Other possibilities of reducing the cost for consumers are available within the use of different business models. Since 23% to 58% of the vehicle's price lies with the battery pack, both the leasing and car sharing model circumnavigate this obstacle. The Battery Leasing Model, as explained in section 3.2.2., allows the consumer to lease the battery packs separately from the vehicle, reducing

the price of the car by the aforementioned percentage. The batteries also pose a financial risk to the consumer as they deteriorate over time, reducing the driving range of the car (Christensen et al, 2012). The fact that the consumer does not have ownership over the battery means that he/she can get a free battery replacement, which negates this risk. In addition, the customer does not need to pay for the charging as this is covered by the monthly fee, thus he is not susceptible to fluctuating energy prices (Weiller et al., 2015). The drawback of this model is that it loses its most significant advantage specifically the lower car price over the vehicle purchase model once the battery prices have been reduced sufficiently.

The other alternative business model is car sharing, which has the potential to greatly popularize EVs. Namely, this business model removes many of the drawbacks of EVs, such as the heavy cost burden that comes with an EV while being a cheaper solution than leasing and thus more suitable for people who only use a car occasionally. It also allows people to try out EVs without having to commit to purchasing one or being stuck with a long-term contract. This will allow people who are uncertain to gather experience with EVs which could help increase the long-term acceptance rate (Foutnier et al., 2015). This could lead to more sales which means that this model could be effectively combined with either of the other two discussed business models. The car sharingmodel also has other beneficial effects, including the reduction of needed parking spaces as a single car could be used by multiple people (Foutnier et al., 2015). A drawback however is that car sharing requires you to park the car at specific places, this could reduceyour mobility (Foutnier et al., 2015). A limitation to both of the two models is that they are very capital intensive, meaning that they require large amounts of initial investment for producers to set up. This could serve as a deterrent for companies from utilizing these models (Christensen et al, 2012; Foutnier et al., 2015).

When looking at parking spaces, Bakker and Trip (2013) and Steinhilber et al. (2013) both claim that whether you charge and park or only park an EV, this needs to be regulated. The use of charging spots in the UK and Germany is not effective since there is no regulation (Steinhilber, 2013). The situation in the Netherlands is slightly different. In cities/municipalities such as Amsterdam and The Hague parked EVs are obliged to charge when parked at a EV charging spot, otherwise you will be fined (Gemeente Amsterdam 2016; Gemeente Den Haag, 2016).

Additional economic policies could contribute to a possible large-scale transition towards electric driving. As stated by Eppstein et al. (2011) and Hidrue et al. (2011), the use of subsidies as an economic incentive will have the most positive impact on the transition by attaining a substantial market share. However, the extent of the impact of subsidies is dependent on the distribution of the subsidies and the availability of a charging infrastructure. According to Sierzchula et al. (2015), the conditions for subsidies are good in The Netherlands, since Dutch subsidies are mostly recurring and a significant charging infrastructure is available.

However, there are also some barriers in the Netherlands related to planning policies. The Dutch government only provides (financial) assets for municipalities to formulate policies regarding EV use (Agentschap NL, 2012). A lack of national guidance and policy formulation is a limitation for a large-scale transition towards electric driving. Furthermore, in November 2016, the Dutch minister of Economic Affairs has decided to stop the provision of subsidies for the purchase of EVs in the Netherlands (NOS, 2016). This subsidy-stopthreatens the ability to meet emission goals and a transition to electric driving. Because of this lack of coordination between the policies regarding EVs, the market has trouble realizing significant market share (Geels & Kemp, 2000). The Dutch

the compartmentalization of (government) institutions and the lack of effective joint policy formulation (VROM, 2001).

Besides subsidies, there are more monetary incentives that could promote the use of electric vehicles and therefore act as a possibility for a large-scale transition towards electric driving.

According to Ajanovic (2014), tax relief, free parking and recharging systems could be measurements that will increase the attractiveness of electric driving. Another possibility is integrating the external costs of conventional vehicles in the purchase or usage price. According to Sierzchula (2015), the absence of external costs in the prices of cars and fuel is leading to market failure, as the market will not achieve maximum welfare. Vertelman (personal communication, 2016) also acknowledges the importance of external costs by imposing that the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is the most significant determinant for consumers when buying electronic or conventional vehicles. The

integration of external costs within the TCO will increase the market attractability of EVs. However, to internalize external costs, constant and unfragmented policies are crucial.

4.3. The EV battery

As stated in section 4, battery packs have significant influence on EV implementation. Looking at the technical development of the lithium ion battery production, several developments show promising potential. In order to understand how the battery will evolve, the trends that have had influence on this progression need to be analysed.

The Tesla Gigafactory which is being built in Sparks, Nevada, will be fully operational in 2018 being able to produce 500.000 batteries per year, which equals 35 GWh (Tesla, 2016). This large-scale production of lithium ion batteries will cut in the production costs worldwide. The factory will be fully operational on renewable energy sources. This is an example of the theory of economies of scale as was explained in section 3.2.1. As the company's projections are to obtain the total production of all lithium ion batteries at the end of this decennia, this will have direct effect on the batteries used in the Netherlands (Tesla, 2016). The lithium ion battery has shown significant progressive results during the last few years. Over the years the amount of lithium needed to produce one KWh decreased from 200 to 160 grams (Kushnir and Sandén, 2012). This is a 20% decrease and makes the production efficiency much higher. This example illustrates how progressive the EV battery market is.

Another subset of this progression is that the driving range of EVs is increasing each year. The mean distance that can be covered by EVs is approximately 360 kilometers (Thompson, 2016). This is a much shorter range than that of conventional cars, which could be seen as a limitation. However, technological development has shown significant increase in the last few years and show potential increase of range during the coming years. Furthermore, the problem of short range can be limited using the right charging strategies. The other way around, increased driving range could decrease the pressure on charging infrastructure. This will be further explained in the following subsection. However, some factors could limit the upscale of the production of lithium ion batteries.

Underdeveloped countries contain the most lithium resources such as brines (Mohr et al., 2012). The infrastructure in these countries could possibly not support the transportation of the lithium ores. Furthermore, possible limitations can arise from the underdeveloped recycling methods for lithium.

Recycling is, as stated before, one of the most important technological developments that needs to increase to supply the increasing demand in lithium ion batteries (Kushnir and Sandén, 2012). Fuel price fluctuation has a large influence on the production and mining of lithium, as Grosjean et al. (2012) states:

“From 2005 to 2006, a slight increase of the price is noticeable due to a trade bottleneck caused by production problems in the Chilean salt lake of Atacama and a concomitant increase of the captive battery demand. Presumably because of the soaring price of oil, the average exportation cost of lithium also rose sharply from 2007 to 2008 till reaching a 6.4 $/kg record value. More recently, the economic crisis affected most of the lithium users who accordingly restrained their consumption.” As described in this paragraph, there are several key limitations and possibilities. Firstly, uneven distribution of the lithium sources and the underdeveloped countries which contain the largest amounts of lithium. Secondly, fuel price can affect the battery’s price either positive or negative. Thirdly, the progression in recycling the batteries is a key limitation or possibility. The possibilities are the improvement of the range for lithium ion batteries and the construction of the Tesla Gigafactory can reduce production costs and GHG emissions.

4.4. Charging

Charging is one of the main differences in practice between a conventional car and an EV. Understanding the possibilities and limitations charging offers is therefore important when discussing the feasibility of a large-scale transition into an EV sector.

An important limitation for EVs in the Netherlands is the charging infrastructure. Charging stations can be public, semi-public (limited public access) and private. About 60% of the charging stations in the Netherlands is private (van Mil, van Schelven & Kuiperi, 2016). According to Bart Vertelman (personal communication, 11-22-2016) the Dutch charging infrastructure is only sufficiently available in urban areas, whereas infrastructure is lacking outside these areas. But the charging infrastructure in cities is also susceptible to problems. Charging spots are often allocated at the expense of regular parking places, which might cause discontent among the general public. Furthermore, these EV reserved parking places are likely to be used less efficiently than regular parking spots, thus possibly increasing parking pressure in inner-city areas (Bakker et al., 2014). Moreover, an evaluation of Dutch governance regarding EVs shows that though private charging infrastructure might be increasing, public charging infrastructure has a larger positive impact on a transition due to public visibility (Sierzchula et al., 2014). There is no appropriate governmental strategic plan as to where and how public infrastructure needs to be build (van Mil, van Schelven & Kuiperi, 2016). The Dutch government claims that the infrastructure roll-out is in the end not a government task, but a commercial market activity (van der Wees, 2014). However, a profitable business case is still missing. Charging patterns could also cause a limitation for large-scale EV usage. This limitation is caused by the timing of charging; electricity demand peaks at the same time as most transport movements end and EVs start charging. This creates problems for the electricity network (Bellekom et al., 2012). If no charging strategy is used, the Dutch electricity system might not be able to include large numbers of EVs. Van Vliet et al. (2011) examined the effect of EV charging patterns on household and total electricity demand in the Netherlands. According to van Vliet et al. (2011) the usage of an electric vehicle increases the electricity consumption of a household in an industrialised country by

approximately 50%. Uncoordinated charging would increase national peak load by 7% at 30% penetration rate of EV and household peak load by 54%, which may exceed the capacity of existing electricity distribution infrastructure in the near future (van Vliet et al., 2011).

However, EVs could also offer many potential benefits to the electric grid. Technologies for alternative (smart) charging strategies are developing over the last years. A smart charging system will offsets charging to take place when it is most beneficial based on different metrics. To implement such a system, a smart-grid is required. Such a system can providethe visibility and control needed to protect components of the distribution network from being overloaded by EVs and ensure electricity generating capacity is used most efficiently. The flexibility that such strategies can provide will ultimately benefit customers as energy costs are reduced and new services are created (Eurelectric, 2015). Smart charging will also benefit society at large, because it optimises the use of the power system and supports renewable energy integration. An important part of this renewables integration is the recycling of the lithium batteries as stated in paragraph 4.2. This recycling can entail multiple methods such as the re-usage of the raw materials or the direct expansion of the smart charging grid by the utilization of old deteriorated battery packs. These packs are no longer able to maintain enoughcharge to be used for an EV but can still be used for stationary energy storage and serve as a buffer for the electric grid (Kley et al, 2011). For this to be realized, old battery packs need to be collected from individuals, although in the case of a leasing and car sharing model the packs are already collected by the company that owns them. This recycling would also positively affect the lithium efficiency and thereby its availability.

The potential buffer function of EVs is one of the reasons why the Dutch national government used to subsidise electric driving (Vleugel and Bal, 2016). Using a smart grid, this form of load management results in a more consistent level of electricity demand and could play an important role in the integration of renewable energy into existing electricity system (Bellekom et al., 2012). Smart-grid systems could facilitate consistent load management. The literature on this subject is mainly focused on wind and solar energy, with wind energy receiving much greater attention and more detailed analysis. This is because wind energy is also produced during the night, when electricity demand is low, thus a surplus is faster reached. Also, most EVs are connected to the grid during the night (Richardson, 2013). Bellekom et al. (2012) have studied the combination between wind energy and EVs in the Netherlands. They researched the possible effects on the electricity system when introducing a large number of EVs and an increasing amount of wind power for the 2020 Dutch situation. According to Bellekom et al. (2012), 4 GW of wind can be introduced without problems under the no EV scenario; this increases to 10 GW with the introduction of 1 million EVs. This difference can be explained by the possible interaction between EVs and the electricity grid. Namely, there are two ways in which EVs can undertake such an interaction. In a grid to vehicle (G2V) system, EVs only store power from the grid. When vehicle to grid (V2G) is included, vehicles can also deliver power to the grid. Adding V2G to the system will further decrease CO2 emissions. However, V2G plays a limited role in improving the penetration of renewables in the literature (Richardson, 2013), most likely due to excessive battery degradation which reduces its lifetime and could thereby increase the pressure on lithium availability (see paragraph 4.3).

Vleugel and Bal (2016) present two different approaches for the use of EVs in the electricity network: grid-oriented/top-down, where EVs can be controlled and used as buffers on a large-scale and bottom-up, where users take care of their own power demand. Governments and private companies prefer a top-down approach, because it maximizes tax income and dependency of consumers. When

consumers do not prefertheir EVs to be controlled under such circumstance, price incentives could be a suitable method. In the second scenario, users may (eventually) disconnect from large network facilities and only pay for what they consume. This scenario is expected to score better in terms of environmental sustainability. However, a scenario consisting of individual power production and EVs as mobile storage system is not realistic with current technology, the required space and the investments needed (Vleugel and Bal, 2016). Furthermore, grid-oriented charging can either be direct, through direct control of the vehicle, or indirect by designing the vehicle to respond to price signals. Richardson (2013) suggest that indirect charging is a more promising concept as it is more likely to lead to consumer acceptance than direct external control.

Although the possibilities of (smart) charging strategies seem promising, the implementation is a complex challenge, involving different stakeholders. Moreover, maintaining and modernising an electricity grid requires billions of euros per year (Vleugel and Bal, 2016). No clear-cut business model has yet emerged for how the government will support EV charging strategies. Regardless of the approach, policy and regulation initiatives will be needed to support the implementation of smart charging strategies. The current Dutch legal framework does not provide sufficient space for experimentation regarding smart charging application (Vertelman, personal communication, 11-22-2016). However, some smart charging pilots are ongoing at the moment.

5. Conclusion and Discussion

After reviewing all the obtained data and information, it can be concluded that the most important limitation for a large-scale transition is the current political and charging-infrastructural planning situation in The Netherlands. The subsidy loss is a result from unclear institutional politics. The Netherlands currently has a fragmented charging infrastructure, as charging systems in rural municipalities are insufficiently available. A proper governmental strategic plan concerning public charging-infrastructure is lacking. Additionally, the introduction of a large number of EVs could negatively impact the Dutch electricity network. Smart charging strategies could possibly help overcome this problem and offer many benefits to the system by optimizing the use of the power

system and support renewable energy integration. However, the implementation of smart charging systems is also limited by the Dutch legal framework.

The second largest limitation is the current vehicle price, which can mostly be attributed to the high battery costs. Uneven lithium distribution in underdeveloped countries could lead to scarcity and therefore increase battery prices even further.

When current vehicle and battery prices are considered, these factors also bring certain possibilities for a large-scale transition towards EVs. Technological developments could decrease both vehicle and battery prices. Furthermore, battery prices could be further reduced by engaging in efficient battery recycling, as this increases lithium efficiency. These factors will have an increased effect when combined with the theory of economies of scale. Furthermore, the driving range of EVs is still is limited. However, over the past few years significant increase in this distance has been realised. Improving the EVs driving range will also help to decrease the pressure on public charging infrastructure, as EVs can drive longer without charging.

Another possibility for improving the attractiveness of EV prices is implementing external costs in conventional vehicle prices. A lower price could also be achieved by the implementation of alternative business models. However, the capital intensity of these models ascertains that the impact of these models will be severely limited without subsidies or other government incentives. The fragmented political situation holds such subsidies and incentives down.

Although the geographic and socio-economic characteristics of The Netherlands are suitable for a large-scale transition towards electric vehicles and many possibilities to improve these conditions exist, the current political fragmentation is limiting the potential of this transition. The theory of structure of agency can be applied to this case. In order for consumers to adapt to a transition, government structure needs to be present. The Dutch government has aimed to supply frameworks for a transition, however policy inconsistencies (i.e. recent plans to discontinue government subsidies) limit the possibility of consumers buying EVs. Furthermore, the implementation of smart charging structures is also restricted by this fragmentation.

5.2. Discussion

The interdisciplinary research provided possibilities and limitations of a transition to EVs use in the Netherlands. EVs could help diminish some of the greenhouse gasses emitted by the transport sector and thus help the Netherlands reaching climate goals. However, because of time and size constraints, the source of electricity used by EVs are not considered, neither are the greenhouse gas emissions during the production of EVs considered in this paper. To be exactly sure to what extent EVs are more sustainable than cars powered by conventional energy sources, further research about the

aforementioned should be conducted. After this research, a prediction of the reduction of the amount of GHG could be made.

Also, this research does not differentiate the different types of EV that exist. As stated in the Introduction, only plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) are considered

and named as EVs. As there are more types of EVs that could have different possibilities of limitations, the remaining EV types must be examined.

Furthermore, the inconsistency of government policy also means that some limitations could be considered temporarily, such as consumer subsidies. Additionally, to meet certain climate change goals, it will be highly likely that the transport sector must undergo a transition to sustainability. Therefore, though the lack of subsidies is a limitation, the possibility for a potential market switch to EVs in the Netherlands should still be considered reasonable as subsidies could be re-enforced.

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Appendix A

Interview Bart Vertelman, Projectleider Plan Amsterdam: the electric city

- Wat zijn de grootste uitdagingen (beleid, juridisch, technisch, ruimtelijk, etc.) voor de ontwikkeling van ‘smart charging’ technieken in Nederland?

De grootste uitdaging is om binnen de wettelijk mogelijkheden te zoeken naar oplossingen die voor alle partijen (exploitant, netbeheerder, gebruikers, etc.) interessant zijn. Het wettelijk kader biedt onvoldoende ruimte om te experimenteren. Hierdoor is het bijvoorbeeld moeilijk om een flexibele netaansluiting te creëren die pieken in de netbelasting voorkomt en goed is voor de businesscase van de exploitant én de gebruikers.

- Welke economische redenen hebben de meeste negatieve invloed op de transitie naar elektrisch rijden en hoe kunnen deze redenen verholpen worden?

Belangrijk zijn de ‘Total Cost of Ownership’ voor de gebruikers van elektrische voertuigen. Als deze hoger of gelijk zijn aan een diesel, zullen mensen op dit moment geneigd zijn om toch voor een Diesel voertuig te kiezen.

Zeer bepalend voor deze TCO zijn de fiscale maatregelen van het Rijk zoals de bijtellingsregeling voor leaserijders en de vrijstelling van BPM. Het belangrijkste is echter dat dit een consistent beleid is voor de langere termijn, zodat consumenten en bedrijven vertrouwen krijgen.

- In Plan Amsterdam The Electric City wordt voor een groot deel gesproken over een transitie naar elektrisch rijden in de lease sector, onder andere het gebruik van subsidies stimuleert het gebruik. Minister Kamp van Economische Zaken wil echter de subsidies voor elektrisch rijden afschaffen en

subsidies voor privaat elektrisch rijden is nog nauwelijks op nationale schaal geregeld. Welke alternatieve maatregelen, zoals ruimtelijke interventies, kan de overheid nemen om een transitie alsnog mogelijk te maken in zowel de private sector als de lease sector? En zouden maatregelen op nationaal niveau geregeld worden of op gemeentelijke/ regionaal niveau voor maximale

efficiëntie?

Lokaal kunnen we vooral zorgen voor faciliterende maatregelen (laadinfrastructuur) en privileges voor bijvoorbeeld schone taxi’s (voorbeeld: taxistandplaatsen waar alleen schone taxi’s mogen staan en klanten oppikken).

Op landelijk niveau hoeven het niet alleen subsidies te zijn, maar vooral consistent beleid waar consumenten op kunnen vertrouwen. Dit kan bijvoorbeeld ook door juist de kosten van ‘vervuilende’ voertuigen te verhogen, waardoor dat minder aantrekkelijk wordt, en juist aantrekkelijk om

elektrisch te rijden.

Een ander goed voorbeeld is het verlagen van de energiebelasting op de geladen kWh op de openbare laadpunten, zoals nu door staatssecretaris Wiebes wordt uitgewerkt.

- De hoge prijs van elektrische auto's wordt vaak gezien als de voornaamste factor die de adaptatie van elektrische auto's in de weg staat. Denkt u dat alternatieve business modellen zoals car sharing en leasing de adaptatie van elektrische auto's kunnen bevorderen? En welke rol denkt u dat zulke methodes in de transitie naar elektrisch rijden zullen spelen?

Dit soort modellen kunnen zeker helpen (nu al kunnen veel mensen elektrisch uitproberen via het Car2Go car sharing) in de transitie. De komende jaren is het vooral belang dat er veel elektrische modellen beschikbaar komen met voldoende range. De grotere aantallen zorgen voor een daling van de prijs.

- Wat zijn volgens u de grootste valkuilen voor het elektrisch rijden binnen Nederland?

Wisselend beleid vanuit de rijksoverheid (wel bijtelling/geen bijtelling, fiscale voordelen wel/niet etc.) en voldoende aanwezigheid van laadinfrastructuur. In de grote steden gaat dit goed, daarbuiten nog niet.