The Quinoa Boom in Bolivia: An Interdisciplinary Scenario Analysis on the Future Well-being of Communities on the Bolivian Altiplano.

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The Quinoa Boom in Bolivia:

An Interdisciplinary Scenario Analysis

on the Future Well-being of

Communities on the Bolivian Altiplano.

Research Report for Interdisciplinary Project Lotus Arian - Business Administration - 10760016 Etienne Bastein - Earth Science - 10659595 Aimee van Nieuwenhuijzen - Political Science - 10492224 Viktor Wildeboer - Human Geography - 10782974

Tutor: Jaap Rothuizen MSc Expert: Dr. Alison Gilbert Date: 23 December 2016

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Abstract

Quinoa is a very nutritious crop that grows on the high plains of Bolivia, the Altiplano. At the moment the biggest international market share of quinoa consists out of quinoa from the Altiplano. In recent years, international demand for quinoa has risen enormously, introducing all kinds of pressures on the local communities. The aim of this research report is to assess the effect of the international quinoa market on the well-being on the local communities in 2030. Well-being To do this we applied an interdisciplinary approach in our research and used the scenario method. The scenario method aims at developing four possible scenarios. This is done through identifying two main driving forces the underling and impacting forces in the context at the Altiplano. Next, analysis describes the development of trends until now. Trends are factors relevant to the research context, that are influenced by the driving forces. Based on the driving forces and the trend analysis, four different timelines and scenario narratives are developed. An assessment of the scenarios based on five aspects of well-being making us able to compare the effects of the international quinoa market on the well-being in different scenario’s. The first identified driving force is political regime, divided in neoliberal regime and food sovereignty regime. The second driving force is international quinoa demand, divided in high and low quinoa demand. The identified trends are changes in population changes, land use and biodiversity. To conclude, the necessary material for a good life is best met in a scenario with high demand an neoliberal regime and worst met in a scenario with low demand and food sovereignty. Health of the communities stays the same in almost every scenario. Health severely decreases in the scenario with food sovereign regime and low demand. Social relations benefit from a scenario with a food sovereign regime and low demand but decreases in the other scenario’s. Also, security benefits from this scenario and is more or less stable in the other three scenarios. Freedom of Choice and Action increase in a scenario of high demand and neoliberal regimes, and in a scenario of low demand and a food sovereign regime.

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Introduction

Theoretical Framework

Methodology

Driving Forces

Policy Regime - Neoliberalism or Food Sovereignty

Quinoa Demand - High or low international demand for quinoa

Matrix of driving forces

Trend Analysis

Population

Land Use

Innovations

Biodiversity

Analysis of present situation

Scenarios

More than just quinoa - Low International Demand & Neoliberal Policies

Estimated timeline

Analysis of scenario

Quinoa boom 2.0 - High international demand & neoliberal policies

Estimated timeline

Analysis of Scenario

Back to Basic - Low International Demand & Food Sovern Policies

Estimated timeline

Analysis of scenario

Flourishing nature, degrading relations - High International Demand &

Food Sovern Policies

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Estimated timeline

Analysis of scenario

Conclusion

Discussion

References

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Introduction

At the start this millennium barely any quinoa was exported from Bolivia, while ten years later the region exported almost 40 000 tons of quinoa, with production and demand expected to grow even more (Furche et al., 2014). Almost all this quinoa is produced on the Altiplano, a high plain where little can grow except for quinoa, see Figure 1 and 2. It is situated in the south west of Bolivia, which is the poorest country of South America (World Development Report, 1998). Times started changing when the international Food and Agricultural Organisation promoted quinoa worldwide as a superfood. The resulting quinoa boom gave a sudden economic boost to the Bolivian economy. The price tripled per kilo between 2006 and 2010, and exports grew enormously, which made it the most increased growing commodity in world trade (Furche et al., 2014; Salcedo, Santivañez, Fernandez & Correa, 2014). However on a regional scale the effects were even more violent, and the unforeseen quinoa boom caused multiple economic, social and ecological pressures to arise that affect the well-being of the indigenous communities.

First, in 1960 only 36 percent of the population lived in urban areas, which increased to 68 percent in the subsequent 55 years (World Bank, 2016). However, since the quinoa boom, quinoa producing regions witnessed a population growth of 19 percent (Kerssen, 2015). These migrant bring new values to the region and thereby changing traditional culture of the indigenous communities (Kerssen, 2015). Secondly, the quinoa boom also caused ecological changes. In order to increase quinoa production the original shrub vegetation was transformed into agricultural fields (Killeen et

al., 2007). Which resulted in accelerated desertification and land degradation processes (Jacobsen, 2011). These changes were sudden, unexpected and unique for this region and the question arises how this region will develop in the future. Therefore, this paper explores what possible futures might await the local communities of the Altiplano and how this affect their well-being. Which leads to our research question: ‘How will the well-being of communities on the Altiplano be affected by the international quinoa market in 2030?’.

The structure of the paper is as follows. First we will discuss several conceptual aspects relevant to our research in the theoretical framework. Second, the method we use for our scenario analysis is discussed in the methodology. Third, a trend analysis highlighting which trends are of influence to the region now and in the future based on a literature review. Fourth, we propose four scenario’s that are based on the trends discussed in the trend analysis. Finally, we will conclude by assessing how well-being is represented in each scenario and reflecting to our research in the conclusion and discussion.

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Figure 1. Location of the Altiplano By: Horton, B., Perez, N., Fitch, J. & Saylor, J. 2014.

Figure 2. Locations of Quinoa Productions (Satellite image retrieved from ArcGIS).

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Theoretical Framework

In this theoretical framework are the following concepts discussed; well-being, ecosystem services, neoliberal policy, food sovereignty and demand.

This research focuses on the effect of different scenarios on the well-being of communities at the Altiplano. Well-being entails the ability to pursue health, happiness and prosperity, leading to a satisfied feeling about one's life. Following Alcamo et al. (2003), well-being is analysed according to five aspects, as displayed in Figure 3 (Alcamo et al , 2003). The first aspect, “Necessary material for a good life”, consists of revenues and assets, adequate nutrition at all times, shelter, clothing and other goods. The second aspect is “Health”; a healthy community is physically strong, in good health and has a healthy physical environment. The third aspect is “Social Relations”, this includes social cohesion, mutual respect, good gender and family relations, and the ability to help each other and provide for children. The fourth aspect is “Security”, includes secure access to natural and other resources, safety of person and possessions, and living in a predictable and controllable environment with security from natural and human-made disasters. And the last, “Freedom and Choice” includes having control over what happens and being able to achieve what the community values. These five dimensions reinforce each other positively or negatively, which is illustrated in Figure 3 (Alcamo et

al., 2003).

Figure 3. The Main Dimensions of Well-Being and its Obverse, Ill-being. Reprinted from Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment(p.75), by J. Alcamo, N. J. Ash, C. D. Butler, J. B. Callicott, D. Capistrano, et al., 2003, Washington, DC: Island Press.

Well-being is directly or indirectly supported by ecosystem services. Ecosystems are essential for the well-being of communities through their supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural services (Alcamo et al., 2003). For example, ecosystems supply goods like food, fiber and other products that are necessary as material for good life. Another example, regulating functions entail fresh water and a stable climate. These functions are necessary for good health and security. Change in these services could be substituted by technical innovations but only to a limited extend (Alcamo

et al., 2003).

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Two contrasting political regimes (will) strongly affect well-being of the communities at the Altiplano in very different ways. First, neoliberalism, which entails an emphasis on freedom of choice and ideal aspects of markets, as the market is, according to neoliberal policies, the answer to every societal and natural problem. It implies prioritising market principles over other social and political judgements. Through economic success the well-being of all will be enhanced and economic success requires full exploitation of these market principles. Thus, neoliberal policies could entail privatisation, deregulation, trade liberalisation and withdrawal of governments from social security (Stilwell, 2012; Wittman, 2011).

The counterpart of neoliberalism is food sovereignty. Food sovereignty is a broad concept which includes food security and the right for communities to social control on their food systems. First, this concept has an element of the right of access to the nutrition that is necessary for a healthy lifestyle. Second, it has the social element, where communities have the right to define which crops are produced in accordance with their culture, the right to produce crops by ecological and social sustainable methods, and the right to define their own food and agriculture systems. This way the people who produce, distribute and consume food are the focus points of food systems and policies, instead of the demands of markets and corporations (Kerssen, 2015; La Via Campesina, 2016; Patel, 2009).

Neoliberalism and food sovereignty are opposites at several aspects. On the one hand, neoliberalism has an individualistic approach while food sovereignty makes distinctions between communities to protect the interests of minorities. This translates into a prioritization of market principles in neoliberal policies while food sovereignty prioritizes social and political judgements. Next the economical approaches, neoliberalism favors free markets and globalisation to stimulate export which should increase economic success. Food sovereignty entails protectionist policies, limiting import and export to protect national and local interest. The two policies have different impacts on ecosystems because neoliberalism focuses on increasing production at the lowest possible cost through scientific innovation, adoption of technology and modern management. However, food sovereignty prioritizes the production of enough food to feed the population while protecting ecosystems. This perspective rejects technological advancement and favours traditional knowledge and the term sustainability, as production is important whilst ecosystems are protected (Bernstein, 2014; Stilwell, 2012; Wittman, 2011).

Almost all aspects of well-being are supported by wealth and aspects of ill-being, counterpart of well-being, ill-being are sustained by poverty. Particularly the aspect of “materially enough for a good life” benefits from wealth and therefore is disadvantage in poverty stricken communities. As mentioned before, the quinoa boom has decreased poverty in Bolivia (Koekoek, 2014; Furche et al., 2014). Moreover, the international demand can stabilize, increase or it can decrease, all with severe consequences. A high demand results in more privatisation and an increase in the export of quinoa (Kohl, 2002; Patel, 2009; Perreault, 2006; Salcedo, Santivañez, Fernandez & Correa, 2014). Therefore a high demand creates more wealth, which is beneficial to the well-being on the Altiplano. However, this is only possible if the Bolivian policy allows quinoa. This is plausible under a neoliberal regime but not under a more food sovereign regime.

The food sovereignty policies will theoretically make quinoa export impossible thus decreasing the wealth. This could lead to the return of the situation at Altiplano before the quinoa boom, even if the international demand is high. This illustrates the importance national policies and 8

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international demand have for the well-being of the locals on the Altiplano. These two uncertain trends are therefore the drivers of the scenarios.

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Methodology

This research consists of a case study on the well-being of the communities on the Altiplano, Bolivia. Well-being is influenced by a complex system, therefore an interdisciplinary approach is needed (Menken & Keestra, 2016; Repko, 2012). This system is inherently complex because concerns nature and society. This is illustrated by the different aspects constituting well-being, as well as its relation with ecosystems. The interdisciplinary approach is considered advantageous especially within a scenario method, as it opens up more possibilities than could be expected from a single discipline (Peterson et al. , 2003; Swart et al., 2004). Also, due to the lack of previous research on our topic, this method is very beneficial. Using this method results in four different scenario’s, thereby making the vision on the future less narrow and predetermined (Oglivy and Schwartz, 1998).

The first step of the scenario method is considering a range of external factors or ‘driving forces’. Driving forces are the underling and impacting forces in the context of our research that determine the development of the scenarios. Moreover, these driving forces are the forces that seem most uncertain and influential to the situation (Bradfield, 2009). The second step is to research the most opposite developments two driving forces. These will be projected along two axes, resulting in a 2x2 matrix. These axes form the foundations for the four scenarios (Lejour, 2003; Arnell et al., 2004). The third step is the trend analysis. Trends are changes in factors over time, and are influenced by the driving forces (Parris & Kates, 2003). The aim of this trend analysis is to see how they have developed in the history until now (Bradfield, 2009). The fourth step is to develop four different scenarios. As discussed by Bradfield (2009), for each scenario a timeline is build that creates an idea of future. Next, scenarios are constructed through assessing the identified driving forces and trends to build to build strong and logical narratives. The first requirement for these scenario’s is that they have to be relevant for the research question and credible for the research context. The second requirement is that they show a new vision by using different perspectives. This last requirement is secured by the inter disciplinary approach (Van der Heijden, 2004). The last step entails an assessment of the scenario’s though comparison to each other and the current situation.

Data for the assessment of the driving forces and trend analysis is derived from form extensive literature research. The used data is qualitative and quantitative. The assessment of the scenarios is based on the five aspects of well-being which each consists out of several variables. These variables get a score on a scale from “Very Poor” to “Very Good”. The average score of all these variables make up for the score of the five aspects. This makes it possible to compare the scenarios for Bolivia in 2030 and the current situation of the communities. For indicators and variables see Table 1.

Finally, a discussion of the methodology. First, the used methodology has a great reliability through the extensive literature research on the driving forces and trends. Also, the interdisciplinary approach increases reliability because of the ability to capture the complex system that influences well-being. Although, variability could occur in the scenario assessment due to the limited number of researchers involved. Second, the use of this method results in four different perspectives on the well-being of the communities at the Altiplano in Bolivia in 2030. This answers the research question and therefore, the use of the methodology is valid. At last, an acknowledgement of the limitation on the research. Due to the limited amount of words, only a limited number of trends could be

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discussed in this research. This problem is partly counteracted through use of the three most important trends bases on the concept of well-being.

Concept Indicator Variable

Well-being The necessary material for a

good life

Secure and adequate livelihoods

Income and assets Enough Food at all times Shelter

Furniture and clothing Access to goods

Health Being strong

Feeling well

Having a healthy physical environment

Social Relations Social Cohesion

Mutual respect

Good gender and family relations

The ability to help others

Security Secure access to natural and

other resources safety of person and possessions

Living in a predictable and controllable environment with security from natural and human-made disasters

Freedom and choice Having control over what

happens

Being able to achieve what a community values doing of being

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Table 1. Variables and indicators for scenario-analysis.

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Driving Forces

In this paragraph the following driving forces are discussed: political regime and international quinoa demand.

Policy Regime - Neoliberalism or Food Sovereignty

The Bolivian policies regarding agriculture and trade which influences the reaction to the quinoa trend could develop more in the neoliberal regime or more in the food sovereignty regime.

Bolivia started developing in a neoliberal regime since 1985, accepting the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). Following this a Law of Capitalization and Law of Popular Participation were developed (McKay, Nehring & Walsh-Dilley, 2014). The Law of Capitalization allowed partial privatization of five state-owned industries and initiated the process of economic liberalization. The liberalization threatened ecological and social sustainability. The Law of Popular Participation gave rise to decentralization and increasing responsibilities for municipalities (Kohl, 2002; Perreault, 2006). This decentralization shows democratic political restructuring in Bolivia. Most of the country does not benefit from the rising foreign investment, caused by economic liberalization, while social spending by the government decreased. Moreover, due to decentralization protests against neoliberal policies are more fragmented which gives rise to the question whether the process of neoliberalisation will benefit local communities effect on this national policy (Kohl, 2002; Patel, 2009; Perreault, 2006).

Under the law of Popular Participation there has been a movement in the direction of greater influence of local communities (Kohl, 2002). Municipalities received a great amount of revenue from the state and new organizational forms are created to give voice to local communities. However, there is evidence of inadequate development plans in most the municipalities incorporating these new visions. This shows that the introduction of formal democratic institutions does not guarantee substantive democratic practice (Kohl, 2002).

Following united social movements protesting against neoliberal reforms of the 1990s a political shift to the left has emerged in Latin America, the so called ‘pink tide’ (McKay et al., 2014). This has resulted in taking up the concept food Sovereignty at the national level by several countries, including this concept in their constitutions. In Bolivia, the election of Evo Morales in 2006 gave rise to these constitutional changes. However, food sovereignty is used as a part of a project favouring control over food systems by the state opposed to foreign governments and international institutions. This resulted in tension between authority of the state and local community. The state is necessary to change unequal agrarian structures dominated by a capitalist agrarian class in the eastern parts of Bolivia. Meanwhile, there has been relatively little devolution of control to the regional or community level compared to, for example, Venezuela. Thus, politics favouring food sovereignty have thus far have had little effect enhancing the freedom of choice and action of the communities at the Altiplano (McKay et al., 2014).

To conclude, the uncertainty of policy development lies in the wish to implement food sovereignty principles opposing the previous neoliberal trend and the inability to change old power structures up until now. This uncertainty and the very different impacts expected on well-being (discussed in the theoretical framework) makes this driver important for the development of scenario’s about the future of communities at the Altiplano.

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Quinoa Demand - High or low international demand for quinoa

In the last 5 years the quinoa production on the Altiplano became one of the most increased growing commodity in world trade (Furche et al., 2014), due to the growing demand for quinoa and quinoa derived products. Multiple reasons exist which explain this demand increase.

First, in the western world a trend of eating healthier occurred. For this change in consumer eating habits, quinoa is a logical new main food source, for it has a high nutritional quality, it has a high content of mineral salts, vitamins, and trace elements, quinoa started as a hype but became a trend (Furche et al., 2014; Koekoek, 2014). The FAO and NASA contributed to the resource which created the healthy image of quinoa (Koekoek, 2014). Second, another trend includes the demand for food related safety guarantees such as traditionally produced food. This increasing demand is due to the renewed interest in ancestral cultures and organic farming. Most of the quinoa production takes place at small farms therefore the production is mostly organic (Furche et al., 2014; Koekoek, 2014) and hereby appropriate to create the supply for this demand. Third, Koekoek (2014) states that quinoa is an irreplaceable health food, therefore consumers do not switch to another product (Koekoek, 2014).

Figure 4 (Salcedo, Santivañez, Fernandez & Correa, 2014, p. 320) illustrates the increase of the quinoa export prices. These price increases reveal the high systematic increase in international quinoa demand which started to increase in 2007 until it reached its highest level in 2011. A small decline is visible from 2011 till 2012. This decline could be the start of the overall decline in price or it could be only a temporarily decrease. To illustrate the impact of the price changes, Garcia & Milagros (2014) spoke of a ‘significant price reduction in 2000’. Garcia & Milagros (2014) claim that this price reduction has changed the strategies of the farmers and increased the self-consumption. Koekoek (2014) states that the quinoa price per ton was € 3,190 in 2013 and € 6, - per ton in 2014.

Figure 4. Trend of quinoa export prices: 1992-2012. Reprinted from State of the Art Report on Quinoa Around the World in 2013 (p. 320), by S. Salcedo, T. Santivañez, D. Bazile, D. Bertero & C. Nieto, 2014, Santiago, Chile: Lynne Reiner.

The export prices increased along with the number of tons Bolivia exported, as is illustrated in Figure 5 (Salcedo, Santivañez, Fernandez & Correa, 2014, p. 317). This cases a wealth growth in Bolivia, for it exported systematically more quinoa and earnt more per ton. This phenomenon is unusual, for more cultivated area became available therefore more supply was accessible to equalize the demand, still the prices for quinoa are relatively high. There is no sign that the quinoa export to the more demanding markets (the European Union and the United States of America) will be limited (Furche et al., 2014), unless the demand will decrease or if the Bolivian government chooses to limit 14

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the export. The Bolivian government could choose to limit the export to be able to feed the Bolivian citizens with quinoa. However, if the Bolivian government chooses more neoliberal policies a particular aspect of well-being can be stimulated, namely the amount of material which is enough for a good life, this consists, as described before, of revenue and assets, adequate nutrition at all times, shelter, clothing and other goods. Therefore, if the price per ton quinoa remain increasing and the export increases simultaneously this aspect of wellbeing will be secure.

Figure 5. Bolivian exports of quinoa: 1992-2012. Reprinted from State of the Art Report on Quinoa Around the World in 2013 (p. 317), by S. Salcedo, T. Santivañez, D. Bazile, D. Bertero & C. Nieto, 2014, Santiago, Chile: Lynne Reiner.

Figure 6 (Salcedo, Santivañez, Fernandez & Correa, 2014, p. 323) illustrates the estimated export and production increase which shows that only 10 000 ton quinoa will remain in Bolivia in 2016 instead of the 50 000 tons from 1997 until 2004 (Furche et al., 2014). Koekoek (2014) states that a volume increase of 70 percent occurred in 2013.

Figure 6. Projections: production and exports of Quinoa 1992-2018. Reprinted from State of the Art Report on Quinoa Around the World in 2013 (p. 323), by S. Salcedo, T. Santivañez, D. Bazile, D. Bertero & C. Nieto, 2014, Santiago, Chile: Lynne Reiner.

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To predict the future of quinoa in Bolivia one should take Gartner’s hype cycle into account.

Gartner’s hype cycle, can be used to make a business decision, it illustrates maturity and evolution of technologies and is illustrated in Figure 7 (Linden & Fenn, 2003). Gartner’s hype cycle describes a hype concerning a certain product, Bolivian quinoa in this case. After the initial interest the disillusion occurs, where the demand is at is lowest point then a demand increases occurs until it finally stabilizes.

Figure 7. Reprinted from Gartner’s hype cycle, by A. Linden & J. Fenn, 2003.

To conclude, the uncertainty of the international demand is described by Gartner’s hype cycle and the small decline of the export prices. This uncertainty and the very different impacts expected on well-being (discussed in the theoretical framework) makes this driver important for the development of scenarios about the future of communities at the Altiplano.

Matrix of driving forces

As discussed above the two driving forces will be implemented in a matrix. The first driving force, governmental policy, will be projected along a horizontal axe. The second driving force, quinoa demand, is situated along the vertical axe. two axes the institutional path that the government will take, and increasing or decreasing demand for quinoa. See Figure 8.

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Figure 8. Matrix of driving forces.

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Trend Analysis

Population

In the following analysis, a description is given of several trends that are of influence on the communities and their well-being in the Altiplano. Starting off with the population size, data from the World Bank (2016) show a steady increase in population in Bolivia, it nearly quadrupled since 1960. This is a national trend and thus does not tell us directly how the regional area of the Altiplano has developed in this regard. How this will develop in the future is possibly dependent on the degree of development of the country. As Coale (1989) argued, strong population increase will decrease when societies shift from a traditional state into a modernized state, which might be a result of neoliberal policies.

Another factor which is influencing the population size is; migration, which is of significant influence to the rural region (Gisbert, et al., 1994). As in many parts of the world Bolivia is urbanizing, at the expense of rural areas. Where in 1960 only 36 percent of the Bolivian population lived in urban areas, it has increased to 68 percent in 2015 (World Bank, 2016). Especially since the 1980s the rural to urban migration increased dramatically, caused by a heavy reliance on off-farm earnings by rural households (Gisbert et al., 1994). This trend was reinforced by the economic crisis from which the country, and especially the rural population, suffered from around the 1980s (Mosley, 2001). Although this nation-wide trend was also observable in the Altiplano region, recent studies found that since the ‘quinoa-boom’ a different migration pattern is happening and out-migration decreased (Kerssen, 2015; Ensor, 2015; Cheleri et al., 2015). As the price of quinoa increases many people return from the city to their ancestral lands to cultivate it again. A national census in 2012 confirmed this trend, as it showed a growth rate of the rural population in the quinoa producing provinces of 19,25 percent since the previous census in 2001 (Kerssen, 2015). How migration will shape the region in the future is highly uncertain, as it is dependent on the demand and the employment opportunities in the quinoa sector.

Another trend shaping the country and the region is a decrease in poverty. In 1998 the World Development Report showed that Bolivia was the poorest country in South America, and poorer than the world's average of developing countries. Since the 1950s many programs were initiated by the government to improve the well-being of its citizens, but with little result (Mosley, 2001). Levels of poverty worsened further after a new government in 1985 liberalized the Bolivian market, with the negative effects hitting the poor income households the hardest (Mosley, 2001). This new policy was the so-called New Economic Policy (Morales, 1991). Some of these policies were directly aimed at the Altiplano as it was an ‘underdeveloped’ and poor area (Bebbington, 2001). But, since then things started to change, and new forms of government intervention were implemented (Andersen, 2002). Nevertheless, this did not spread (or trickle down in neoliberal vocabulary) to all corners of the country, rural regions like the Altiplano lagged. However, since the quinoa boom this changed as farmers in the region were able to catch up (Winkel et al.,2014). Thus, there is a steady decrease in poverty nation-wide and recent data suggest that the Altiplano is following this trend. Nevertheless, the direction this trend will take in the region is very uncertain it depends on many other factors.

Changing traditions and culture heavily influence the region. This is partly a consequence of the above mentioned migration, with migrants returning to their ancestral roots bringing with them

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new norms, values and mindsets (Kerssen, 2015). And a more market based mindset from farmers, thereby displacing local ecological knowledge (Cheleri et al.,2015). But changing cultures can also be attributed to globalization, which started with the earlier mentioned New Economic Policies. These policies facilitated the introduction of international companies to the Altiplano who paid little attention to the needs and wishes of the local communities (Bebbington, 2001; Schroeder, 2007). However, along with this neoliberal trend came numerous policies that protected indigenous people; in 1989 the Convention of the International Labour Organisation on Indigenous and Tribal Peoples (Fontana, 2014); in 2008 a constitutional amendment (Ensor, 2015); increased recognition from the World Bank (2014); the in 2006 elected president Evo Morales tries to take great care of indigenous communities (Schroeder, 2007). Globalisation was reinforced with the quinoa boom, where it became very clear that global market changes have dramatic effects on the local scale, in this instance the Altiplano (Cheleri et al., 2015). Additionally, bottom-up action was taken too, as the Andean communities still hold strong to their traditions and history (McNeish, 2002). Strong movements countering neoliberal global economy are geographically situated in the Altiplano (Schroeder, 2007). Lastly, globalization is a development that is not likely to retreat and thus forms a stable trend.

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Land Use

According to Killeen et al. (2007) the Bolivian Altiplano is changing. For the agricultural expansion on the plateau needs to keep up with the rise of quinoa demand, this causes among others the Altiplanos recent transformation from savannah and shrub vegetation to agricultural fields.

The productivity efficiency of quinoa has stayed the same, which resulted in higher land conversion rates to meet rising quinoa demand (Killeen et al., 2007; Furche et al., 2014). The data in figure 9 clearly shows the expansion of agricultural fields of quinoa in the Altiplano region in Bolivia (Chelleri, 2016).

The increased production and intensification of agricultural fields for quinoa production has accelerated desertification and land degradation processes in the Bolivian Altiplano (Jacobsen, 2011). Due to these changes in land use and the rise of agricultural practices, highland habitats have disappeared. Generally speaking, as habitats vanish, biodiversity decreases, resulting in less stability for crops as well since they become more vulnerable for diseases (Altieri & Masera, 1993).

Figure 9. Quinoa field growth of selected Bolivian Altiplano villages. Image: Chelleri, L, Minucci, G. and Skrimizea E. (under review) “On quinoa revolution and vulnerability trade-offs”, Regional Environmental Change. Reprinted from Nature of Cities, by L. Chelleri, retrieved from

http://www.thenatureofcities.com/2016/02/18/resilience-and-the-butterfly-effect-could-a-grain-of-quinoa-from-bolivia-inf luence-barcelona-city-resilience/.

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Innovations

Historically, hunger and rural poverty are a problem in Latin-American countries (Pinstrup-Andersen, 1982), these problems are aggravated by the rising export of quinoa. This decreases the availability of quinoa for local consumption (Altieri, 1991). The problem with the production of quinoa is that farmers increase the size of their arable land instead of increasing the efficiency of their land (Chelleri, 2016). In order to ensure fertile lands at their expanded agricultural fields, farmers use crop rotation and build terraces on hillsides to prevent erosion for biodiversity conservation (Gari, 1999).

Walker _{et al. (2000) states that development prospects are very different across the country.} The main limitation of available research is the urge to improve access to the market rather than the improvement of technology. Hence, the minimal adoption of new technologies (Furche et al., 2014). Also, technological adoption is not the main focus of the government as well as the farmers as they are more market oriented. Although, with the help of donor agencies and regional foundations they provide some technological development to farmer groups. These foundations contract knowledge consultants to transfer knowledge to the farmers, who are meant to apply their knowledge in production practices and diffuse their knowledge within the community (Hartwich, 2007).

This additional knowledge op top of their local, indigenous and ancestral knowledge, may link newer generations with their ancestors, as they can improve and expand their knowledge (Warren, 1989).

Biodiversity

The environmental conditions at the Altiplano are similar to tundras due to the high elevation of this area, alpine tundra (Sadava, Hillis, Heller & Berenbaum, 2011). The climate is characterised by low temperatures and low precipitation rates throughout the year. Dominant plant species are herbs and small shrubs. The biodiversity in plants is low but a little bit higher than tundra’s above the polar circle due to the absence of permafrost. Also biodiversity in animals is low and consist out of a few mammals like alpaca’s, a few bird species and a medium amount of insect species. Moreover, there are only a few soil biota species that are responsible for the quality of the soil (Sadava et al., 2011). Plus, the mountain ecosystem of the Altiplano is vulnerable to erosion and other environmental pressures (Gari, 1999).

For the communities to benefit from ecosystem services, the supporting services have to be functioning. This is the result of nutrient cycle, photosynthesis and soil formation (eg.), if these parts of the supporting services are not met, the whole ecosystem services system will cope with the effects (Wallace, 2007). Thus supporting services are essential for provisioning, cultural and regulating services (Alcamo _{et al.}, 2003). Cultural services are the nonmaterial benefits the communities obtain from the ecosystem. This consists out of recreation, education or enrichment of the spirit, these are a few examples in which the ecosystem provides benefits as cultural service for the people (MEA, 2005). As already stated, the vulnerability for erosion, and other environmental pressures is high and biodiversity low. Therefore, human interventions changing land use can have a rapid effect on ecosystem services like soil fertility, food production and other cultural services.

Quinoa production in the Altiplano is rising (Furche et al., 2014). As described earlier, land use changes and intensification of the agriculture sector causing habitats to vanish and therefore, 21

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provide less shelter for animals and land for plants. Because of this habitat loss, biodiversity decreases. Cultivating multiple varieties of quinoa in the Andes region ensures the agroecological adaptation for food provisioning (Furche _{et al., 2014). By maintaining this biodiversity with multiple} varieties, peasants ensure their agricultural stability and contribute to the provisioning services, like food production. Also, by cultivating multiple varieties of quinoa, farmers regulate their ecosystem by controlling diseases (Sadava et al., 2011). Cultivating more varieties of quinoa enables the ecosystem to be more resilient, part of regulating services (ibid.). Thus, by maintaining this biodiversity farmers ensure their agricultural stability and contribute to the provisioning services of the ecosystem (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board, 2005).

Analysis of present situation

Indicator Variable Score

(Very Poor/ Poor/ Fair/ Good/ Very good)

The necessary material for a good life

Secure and adequate livelihoods Fair

Income and assets Fair

Enough Food at all times Poor

Shelter Fair

Furniture and clothing Fair

Access to goods Fair

Average score: Fair

Health Being strong Good

Feeling well Good

Good

Average score: Good

Social Relations Social Cohesion Fair

Mutual respect Fair

Good gender and family relations Fair

The ability to help others Fair

Security Secure access to natural and other

resources

Fair

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safety of person and possessions Living in a predictable and controllable environment with security from natural and human-made disasters

Poor

Average score: Fair Freedom and choice Having control over what happens Fair

Fair

Table 2. Analyses of the present situation of the aspects of well-being.

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Scenarios

More than just quinoa - Low International Demand & Neoliberal Policies Estimated timeline

Year Event

2017 Further investments and expansion of agricultural fields for quinoa production under neoliberal policies.

- More export and migrants arrive for work 2018 Quinoa demand has faded

2019 High levels of unemployment and migration to cities.

- Quinoa prices have dropped, which is beneficial to the poorest. 2021 The Altiplano struggles with resilience.

2024 Desertification expansion of the Altiplano. 2025 Communities lose food security.

2027 Introduction of genetically modified crops and animal farms. 2028 Small farming communities remain.

2029 Stabilisation of Altiplano its farming communities

Table 3. Estimated timeline of the scenario: ‘More than just quinoa’.

This scenario describes the influence of low demand under neoliberal policies on the future well-being of the communities at the Altiplano. Initially there was a high quinoa demand because of the label ‘superfood’; being very nutritious it is also very saleable. Following the neoliberal policies of free market principles, companies invested in the exploitation to make it as profitable as possible. As a result of these investments more land was converted into agricultural fields to enlarge their business. This provided opportunities for the people who were part of the farming community as well as outsiders. Outsiders migrated to the Altiplano area in search for work, which they found at the expanding agricultural fields.

However, after the rapid decrease of quinoa demand in 2018, the investments and expansion of quinoa fields proved to be inadequate to cope with the trend in global food behaviour.

Since the quinoa demand dropped dramatically and there is still a respectable provision and production, quinoa becomes affordable for the poorest in the farming communities on the Altiplano. The drop in quinoa demand created social unrest and disharmony across these farming communities on the Altiplano, as a result of high levels of unemployment. and migration back to the cities.

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The lack of demand and unemployment increased people migrating back to the cities, abandoning agricultural land. The barren lands of the Altiplano struggle with their resilience, given the cold climate and minimal amounts of rain, few plants germinate on these open plains. Because of this minimalistic reintroduction of indigenous plants further (cold) desertification arises on the plateau, becoming less fertile through time. Decreased fertility makes food production unsustainable resulting in an un secure food supply.

For companies, to get a return on some of their investments and for farming communities to remain and sustain on the Altiplano, they provide them with genetically modified crops to cultivate on the remaining fields. These genetically modified crops are other crops, which are popular in countries like the United States and China. While the soil on the Bolivian Altiplano is no longer highly fertile, the genetically modified crops are designed to grow in harsh climate conditions and limited available nutrients. Besides that, companies also reintroduce alpacas to the plateau, as they are suited for the terrain and climate. A benefit is that they are suited natural fertilizers on the remaining fallow lands. Besides the role as natural fertilizer the alpacas also provide the communities with wool for clothing as well as consumable products such as milk and meat.

Given these new opportunities, farming communities can make a sustainable living again, providing and producing more than just quinoa. Land is now distributed in different crop fields and grazing plains to ensure the progress of the Altiplano its biodiversity and sustainability for plants and animals, subsequently lands are rotated as the grazing plains are used to capture nutrients from the faeces.

This process of land distribution and land rotation allows the soil quality to increase and therefore enhances the supporting services of the Altiplano ecosystem. Ensuring a stabilized and varied diet and export opportunities for the farmers as well as the companies on a sustainable, durable and long-term agricultural and human well-being.

Analysis of scenario

Secure and adequate livelihoods Fair

Income and assets Fair

Enough Food at all times Poor

Shelter Fair

Furniture and clothing Good

Access to goods Good

Average score: Fair

Health Being strong Fair

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Feeling well Good

Having a healthy physical environment Good

Average score: Good

Social Relations Social Cohesion Poor

Mutual respect Poor

The ability to help others Poor

Average score: Poor

Security Secure access to natural and other resources Good

safety of person and possessions Fair

Poor

Freedom and choice Having control over what happens Good

Good

Table 4. Analyses of the of the aspects of well-being in the ‘More Than just Quinoa’ scenario in 2030.

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Quinoa boom 2.0 - High international demand & neoliberal policies Estimated timeline

Year Event

2017 Poverty is decreasing but inequality on the Altiplano is increasing.

2019 The monopolization of quino on the Altiplano caused the migration of the original quinoa farmers.

2021 Quinoa is being eaten as regularly as mais, pasta and rice. 2023 The Altiplano is mostly populated by new migrants.

2027 Educational programs are stimulation sustainable and efficient agricultural methods, but they are used by only a small fraction of the farmers.

2030 The soil is degraded and much of the biodiversity is lost. Which caused a decrease of farms is the area and an decrease of new migrants. Some original quinoa farmers have returned to the Altiplano.

Table 5. Estimated timeline of the scenario: ‘Quinoa Boom 2.0’.

In the past 2 years quinoa demand kept on rising and rising, and with it Bolivia remained an important player on the world market. At first the socialist government tried to resist this movement, but with the next elections several parties with a more neo liberal agenda managed to form a government. As a result trade barriers were lifted, corporate taxes decreased, free trade agreements were established and foreign agribusinesses were attracted. As a result of these policies, the Altiplano of 2030 suffers under monopolization of a few big agricultural firms that produce quinoa for the world market. Moreover, the ways of the indigenous communities on the Altiplano are lost. They were not able to keep their ancestral grounds as competition with these businesses was almost impossible. This was among others caused by the technical innovations such as genetically modified crops and mechanization. However, the private companies took over some roles of the government as they increased the investments in infrastructure and educational and health related institutions.

Other countries have invested in quinoa production too. To be able to compete with these countries Bolivia has introduced a marketing strategy, emphasising the difference and authenticity of the ‘original Bolivian quinoa’. The production is eventually being limited by the natural restrictions (Koekoek, 2014). This all has several consequences for the remaining communities living on the Altiplano. To start, quinoa is a product they can no longer afford to eat. Therefore they import cheap grains like wheat and maize. Also, inequality has risen in spite of and increase in wealth of the Altiplano as a whole. Where this region was first an economically subordinate part of the country, now much capital is situated there. Native communities do work on the farms but stand low on the hierarchy within these companies. For them mostly the simple jobs are laid aside. On the other hand many expats have travelled to the region in order to acquire managerial functions with high wages, and with success. Third, a big influx of Bolivians to the Altiplano is happening. These are both the people who once left the Altiplano to search for work in the city, but also people who have no origins in the region. Population numbers are increasing and slums appear in areas with work, putting big 27

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pressures on the already limited social services and traditional ways of governance. Returning migrants come back to claim back their ancestral lands, thereby causing friction with those who stayed. New migrants are perceived not to fit in with the traditions of the region. Both these groups plus the foreigners bring new values, techniques and traditions which the natives find it hard to cope with. This all has led to a erosion of Andean culture, to a more western and superficial form.

The intensification decreases soil quality, by increased erosion and exhaustion of the soil. Furthermore, the extensification of the agricultural fields by the big international companies stresses the fragile ecosystem, resulting in decreased biodiversity. However, since a few years sustainable agricultural production is stimulated via education in order to prevent the soil from becoming infertile. This results, in more efficient and sustainable agricultural methods being applied today.

This all contributes to the well-being or ill-being of the remaining local communities in several ways. Due to the intensification, the sustainability of the ecological system on the Altiplano has become insecure. Furthermore, the high influence of foreign companies limits the freedom and choices of the original Altiplano residents. On the other hand, the investment by companies in infrastructure and health institutions has increased the health of the communities, and people are better able to feed themselves and lacking little in ways of material goods.

Analysis of Scenario

Secure and adequate livelihoods

Income and assets Good

Enough Food at all times Good

Shelter Good

Furniture and clothing Good

Access to goods Good

Feeling well Good

Having a healthy physical environment Poor

Social Relations Social Cohesion Very Poor

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Mutual respect Poor

Good gender and family relations Poor

The ability to help others Poor

Average score: Poor Security Secure access to natural and other resources Very poor

safety of person and possessions Good

Very Poor

Freedom and choice Having control over what happens Very Poor

Very Poor

Average score: Very Poor

Table 6. Analyses of the of the aspects of well-being in the ‘Quinoa Boom 2.0’ scenario in 2030.

Back to Basic - Low International Demand & Food Sovern Policies

Estimated timeline

Year Event

2017 International quinoa demand starts dropping rapidly.

2019 High level of unemployment and food scarcity, many people migrate to city. 2020 Heavy protests force the government to promise to take drastic steps. 2022 First policies implemented, heavily limiting import and export to

protect domestic market.

2026 Local communities reinstall system of Ayllus

2027 Several researches show policies successfully increased levels of food sovereignty. 2029 Altiplano gains international attention due to a ‘return to traditional culture’ level of

tourism on the rise.

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Table 7. Estimated timeline of the scenario: ‘Back to Basic’.

The quinoa boom quickly showed to be a hype and demand for quinoa started dropping. As a result, people lost their work in the agricultural business and poverty increased. International companies took advantage of the increasing unemployment rates by offering low paid jobs to a few of these civilians, other remained unemployed. This led to social unrest and protest directed at the government, they called for more protection from the state. The Bolivian president Evo Morales and his successors gave answer to this call and started to implement protectionist policies. These policies aim at protecting farmers against the competition, existing out of big international companies, who are able to import crops at a more efficient price-production rate. One of these measures are high subsidies for farmers to keep quinoa production profitable. Nevertheless, the government still provides little in ways of social security, making the people of the remote Altiplano to rely mainly on their community.

Consequently, the Altiplano today does not differ much from the situation before the quinoa boom. A small population size decrease has occurred as more people migrated to urban areas to

search for work, GDP has decreased a little, poverty levels have stabilized and

innovation/mechanization has come to a halt. Although, the empty high plains of the Andes do not have an abundance of food the communities can survive due to tough labour intensive agricultural work, as they did for thousands of years. Moreover, farmers have returned to the keeping of livestock, the main stock being the Alpaca. This was stimulated by the national and municipal governments who promote subsistence farming, and local food distribution.

Attributable to government intervention and less international demand for quinoa, the increasing globalization of the region has stopped, western values that once threatened to overrule local culture are now of little influence and many people have returned to their ancestral ways. The national government has empowered the local communities by granting revenues to restore biodiversity and degraded lands. Thus, ayllus, a traditional way of governance, are re-implemented. This means that the Altiplano area consists out of several areas with common ownership of land and a connected system of rotating local leadership. Furthermore, this restoration of cultural ecosystem services on the Altiplano attracts high amounts of eco-tourism, thereby slightly putting new pressures on the environment. Reflecting on the concept of well-being, there are several developments of influence. First, security and vulnerability have both increased, security in ways that people are responsible for their own food network, but this makes them even more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. However, social relations have improved significantly, the ayllus governance system has helped to reinstall social order, and this ‘closer to home’ government has increased the freedom of choice and action of the communities. All in all, time seems to have stopped on the Altiplano, people have tough lives, working hard to produce just enough for subsistence.

The necessary material for a Secure and adequate livelihoods Poor

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good life

Income and assets Poor

Enough Food at all times Fair

Shelter Fair

Furniture and clothing Poor

Access to goods Poor

Health Being strong Fair

Feeling well Poor

Having a healthy physical environment Poor

Social Relations Social Cohesion Good

Mutual respect Good

The ability to help others Good

Security Secure access to natural and other resources Fair

safety of person and possessions Fair

Fair

Freedom and choice Having control over what happens Good

Good

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Table 8. Analyses of the of the aspects of well-being in the ‘Back to Basic’ scenario in 2030.

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Flourishing nature, degrading relations - High International Demand & Food Sovern Policies Estimated timeline

Year Event

2017 The influence of the Food Sovereignty Movement has increased.

2018 Restriction on export are introduced and land conversion has been banned. 2020 Export has decreased to levels before the quinoa boom.

2022 Revenue to local communities has been increased. 2024 Ayllus have been restored.

2026 Great protests from migrated people.

2028 Biodiversity loss has stopped and land degradation has been brought back to level before the quinoa boom.

Table 9. Estimated timeline of the scenario: ‘Flourishing nature, degrading relations’.

The Bolivian government saw quinoa demand rising and rising. High demand for quinoa negatively impacted ecosystems through land conversion and threatened social sustainability in agricultural areas because of re-peasantization. With fear for the consequences, especially for the communities at the Altiplano, the government started to transform policies and old structures favouring food sovereignty. The new policy direction has limited the possibilities to convert land for agricultural purposes. The land devoted to quinoa is limited by the local demand for quinoa. Moreover, technical advancements are forbidden and traditional agricultural practices are embraced. Plus, protectionist policies that shielded the international market form international forces. This policy regulates that only a small percentage of the produced quinoa was allowed for export but only in times of surplus.

The market share of Bolivian quinoa dropped because of the restriction causing a rapid increase of quinoa production in other countries around the world. The small amount of exported Bolivian quinoa is bought by a small target group which is interested in the authentic quinoa which is grown at the Altiplano. This quinoa is relatively expensive, thus no variations of quinoa are explored. However, quinoa from other countries is very popular, it is sold and bought in great amounts and a lot of diverse products are being made this includes non-organic, non-fair trade and non-authentic varieties (Koekoek, 2014).

Added to this, under pressure of the Food Sovereignty Movement the governance structure of indigenous communities in the past have been restored. The restoration has led migrants, attracted to the Altiplano by the high quinoa demand, powerlessness and lacking of material. These people had no rights to use the communal lands because they had no blood ties to the region. The protest led to re-evaluation of the governance forms and migrants get included in rights to communal grounds. Also, a significant portion of people among the communities is dissatisfied by the production and export restriction because it limits their possibilities to increase revenue. The dissatisfaction of multiple groups caused degrading social relations.

However, the government has established high funding programs in 2020 for farmers to keep quinoa production profitable. This caused decreasing poverty rates at the Altiplano. The rest of the 33

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funding is spent on restoration of biodiversity and degraded land. Moreover, land that was converted for quinoa after 2016 is after 8 years completely used for pasture for livestock of alpaca’s. Sufficient food production due to funding and flourishing nature increases the necessary material for a good life, security and health of the communities. Yet, decreased export caused a decreasing GDP thus there is little money available to invest in other public spending on education, healthcare and infrastructure keeping the freedom of choice and action low.

Secure and adequate livelihoods Good

Income and assets Good

Enough food at all times Good

Shelter Fair

Furniture and clothing Fair

Access to goods Poor

Feeling well Fair

Very good

Average score: Good

Social Relations Social Cohesion Very poor

Mutual respect Poor

Good gender and family relations Good

The ability to help others Fair

Average score: Poor

Security Secure access to natural and other

resources

Very good

Safety of person and possessions Good

Living in a predictable and Very good

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controllable environment with security from natural and human-made disasters

Average score: Very good

Freedom and choice Having control over what happens Fair Being able to achieve what a

community values doing of being

Fair

Table 10. Analyses of the of the aspects of well-being in the ‘Flourishing nature, degrading relations’ scenario in 2030.

Conclusion

In this paper the present situation of the Altiplano is described and all the current trends. Based on these trends the scenarios were developed, combining our four disciplines, while focussing on the dimensions of well-being. The value level of the aspects of well-being of every scenario is summarized in the table below.

Necessary material for a good life Health Social Relations Security Freedom of Choice and Action

Present Fair Good Fair Fair Fair

Scenario High Demand & Neoliberal Policies Quinoa boom 2.0

Good Good Poor Poor Very Poor

Scenario Low Demand & Neoliberal Policies More than just quinoa

Fair Good Poor Fair Good

Scenario High Demand & Food Sovereignt y Flourishing nature, degrading relations

Fair Good Poor Very Good Fair

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Scenario Low Demand & Food Sovereignt y Back to basic

Poor Poor Good Fair Good

Table 11. Summary of the of the aspects of well-being in the four scenarios in 2030.

First the freedom of choice and action, in the ‘back to basic’ scenario is described by the decentralisation of power by the national government which increased the political freedom of choice and action of the region. As well as in the ‘more than just quinoa’ scenario in which farmers have got the chance of introducing other crops and livestock to the region. Shortly a low demand will provide more power to the farmers regarding the freedom of choice and action.

Second security, which is best provided in the ‘Flourishing nature, degrading relations’ scenario. The communities are protected from international pressures by the restrictions on export. The agricultural situation is being improved by the funds available for the restoration of biodiversity and degraded land.

Third good health, health status is rising in the ‘flourishing nature, degrading relations’ scenario, as converted quinoa lands are now used for livestock. Due to funding, there is now sufficient food production for communities to stay in good health. Likewise happened in the ‘more than just quinoa’ scenario, in which companies invested in the food production at the Altiplano. In order to earn back some of their investments they funded a program in which crops are cultivated alongside of pasture for livestock. Providing enough food for good health.

Fourth materially enough for good life, is also beneficial because of restoration of ecosystems in the scenario ‘flourishing nature, degrading relations’. In the ‘more than just quinoa’ companies invested in the Altiplano, providing enough revenue to satisfy material needs. The threatened ecosystems and decreased revenue in the other two scenarios result in relatively poor material status.

Fifth good social relations, social relations have improved significantly in the back to basic scenario with the reintroduction of ayllus, a more organic and traditional system wherein social relations and community rules are embedded. This is only possible because the population mainly consists out of indigenous people. Social relations are poor in the other scenarios due to the clashing cultural values of the population

Discussion

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