The relationship between unauthorized migration to Europe
and the political representation of the numbers related to the
migrants.
__________________________________________________
Master thesis
Graduate School of Social Sciences
European Politics and External Relations
Student: Morven Rosanna Cowey/11254602 Supervisor: Dr Darshan Vigneswaran Second reader: Dr Polly Pallister-Wilkins
Abbreviations 4
Introduction 5
Unauthorized migration arriving in Europe 5
Literature review 10 Theory of crisis 10 Construction of crises 11 Securitization of crises 13 Conclusion 14 Conceptual framework 16 Politics of numbers 16
Unauthorized migration flows 18
Political Communication 24 Conclusion 25 Methodology 27 Introduction 27 Document analysis 27 Semi-Structured Interviews 28 Analysis 31 Introduction 31
The IOM´s empirical story of the so-called ongoing refugee crisis 31
The German perspective and representation of the crisis 40
The BAMF - an insight on their perception of the crisis 40
CDU/CSU perspective on the so-called ongoing refugee crisis 45
The CDU´s formation as well as the party´s historical background 46
The CDU´s perception of the rising number of migrants arriving in Europe 48
Comparing the IOM data to the CDU´s notion of the crisis 58
Conclusion 60
Do political elites utilize manipulation of numbers in order to construct a crisis? 61 Conclusion 64
Limitations 65
Further Research 66
Bibliography 67 TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Abbreviations
BAMF = Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge/The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees CDU = Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands/Christian Democratic Union of Germany CDUD = Christlich-Demokratische Union Deutschland/Christian Democratic Union of Germany CEAS = Common European Asylum System
CSU = Christlich-Soziale Union/Christian Social Union in Bavaria
DDR = Deutsche Demokratische Republik/German Democratic Republic (GDR) DTM = Displacement Tracking Matrix
EC = European Commission EU = European Union
EUNAVFOR MED = European Union Naval Force Mediterranean EWI = Entries without inspection
FDP = Freie Demokratische Partei/Free Democratic Party FRONTEX = European Border and Coast Guard Agency IOM = International Organisation of Migration
MENA = Middle East and North Africa MP= Member of Parliament
NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization
SED = Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands/Socialist Unity Party of Germany SPD = Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschland/Social Democratic Party of Germany UNHRC = United Nations Human Rights Council
Introduction
Unauthorized migration arriving in Europe
The recent uprisings in the Middle Eastern and North African regions (MENA) have led to larger numbers of migrants arriving in Europe (Morgan, 2015: 2042; Werz and Hoffman, 2016). Especially from 2015 onwards the number of migrants arriving in Europe has increased. Parts of these migration flows to Europe are registered and well organized, but much of it sees migrants arriving in Europe in an unauthorized manner.
´´Unauthorized migrant´ refers to people who enter or stay in a country without legal authorization. Of course, not everyone residing in a country that is not his own needs explicit authorization to do so (as when an EU national has free movement rights within the EU) and we need to interpret ´unauthorized´ as ´not authorized to the law´´ (Triandafyllidou, 2016: 3). ´Most of the refugees arriving in Europe are fleeing civil war and unrest´ (Werz and Hoffman, 2016: 145).
This has become known as the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. This crisis brings with it logistical, organizational, and integrative problems (Cheung and Phillimore, 2017). There are political implications in the countries of Europe that need to be considered. The populace of many European countries has become increasingly uneasy about the large influx of migrants arriving in Europe (Holmes and Castaneda, 2016). Politicians have to strike a balance between solving the problems associated with the so-called ongoing refugee crisis as well as allying fears about integration and new elements within civil society. Politicians need to be able to have some idea about how many migrants are entering the country and Europe in total in order to be able to use numbers to be persuasive, control the situation, and make an effort to control immigration.
The so-called ongoing refugee crisis is a frequently and highly discussed topic within the European political sphere. Banulescu-Bogdan and Fratze (2015) state that in the first nine months of 2015 approximately 500,000 migrants arrived to Europe, which is twice as many as in the year before. Holmes and Castaneda (2016: 12) argue that many of the migrants arriving in Europe are ´Syrians fleeing their country's civil war, which began in 2011´. The assumption is that the number of migrants arriving in Europe has increased drastically within the last few years. Nonetheless, Holmes and Castaneda (2016) highlight that the so-called ongoing refugee crisis is not a fundamentally new
phenomenon. ´[L]arge numbers of refugees from across the world have entered western Europe at various times in its history´ (Holmes and Castaneda, 2016: 12). However, due to the massive influx of migrants arriving in Europe from 2015 onwards, it is considered a unique situation that European Union member states have to deal with. The media and the political discourse within EU member states have paid and are still paying enormous attention to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. Hence, the aspect of the number of unauthorized migrants arriving in Europe will be highlighted in order to shed light upon unauthorized migration flows to Europe. The aim of this thesis is to discuss the relationship between the number of migrants arriving in Europe unauthorized and the political representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe. This will be achieved by identifying the number of migrants arriving in Europe by analyzing available data.
Many scholars and institutions have attempted measuring and estimating the number of migrants arriving in Europe unauthorized (Vogel et al., 2011; Massey et al., 2004; Kraler and Reichel, 2011; Abel and Sander, 2014; Passel et al., 2005; Vogel, 2016; IOM 2016; FRONTEX, 2017). Problems and issues have been identified with reference to measuring the number of migrants arriving in Europe, such as migrants not willing to enter registration offices after arrival, which makes it impossible to identify the exact number of migrants arriving in Europe. This indicates that highlighting numbers of unauthorized migration flows is a complicated task that cannot be fully represented due to its complexity. Numbers are elusive, hard to capture and any number can be published. Hence, the thesis´ puzzle is to discuss what sources are considered reliable in order to estimate and measure the number of migrants arriving in Europe unauthorized as accurately as possible. Due to the vast number of attempts on measuring migration flows it is vital to critically discuss various methods in order to identify a feasible approach.
The relevance of this project is to examine and assess how counting and attempting to put definitive numbers on the influx of migrants into a country is regarded as a basis for political action. The use of these figures can be manipulated. The manipulation of numbers is associated with crisis construction and securitization of crises (Boin et al., 2009; Bigo, 2002; Buonfino, 2002). By identifying examples of the use of these figures this project contributes towards understanding political processes when faced with the issue of having to deal with large scale migration. This in turn is important to the well-being of civil society within a country. The population of any given country will inevitably have some sort of reaction to immigration on a large scale. For example, in the 1960s western European countries have underwent a drastic increase of industrial expansion.
Large numbers of ´guest workers´ migrated to Germany, the Netherlands and France (Pettigrew, 1998: 79). These ´guest workers´ were considered minorities in receiving countries. Pettigrew (1998: 77) discusses ´four major reactions to the new minorities: prejudice, discrimination, political opposition, and violence´. How politicians deal with the aspects of immigration and how it is represented in the media and at political meetings obviously has a knock effect for the welfare of the state.
Additionally, this thesis is a contribution to the concept of politics of numbers and raises awareness to paying attention to the sources of numbers referring to the number of migrants arriving in Europe. Thus, these findings can at best contribute to understanding the reactions of society, the actions of the politicians and the resulting development of the attitudes within society. This affects the lives and well being of all European citizens.
The definition of unauthorized migration flows includes various aspects such as irregular migration. Triandafyllidou (2016: 2) argues that ´[t]he adjectives ´irregular´, ´illegal´, ´undocumented´, ´unauthorized´ or ´clandestine´ are combined with the nouns ´migrants´, ´immigrants´, ´aliens´ or ´foreign nationals´. Koser (2005) argues that irregular migration is a concept that relates to migration stocks as well as migration flows. An irregular migrant is a migrant ´who, at some point in his migration has contravened the rules of entry or residence´ (Triandafyllidou, 2016: 2). Furthermore, irregular migration from the view of a receiving country is a form of ´entry, stay or work in a country without the necessary authorization or document required under immigration regulation´ (IOM, 2017). Hence, unauthorized migration is a form of irregular migration. Undocumented migration is a further aspect of unauthorized migration. Within the so-called ongoing refugee crisis migrants enter certain European countries, such as Greece and Italy, without any legal documents hoping to seek an official right to stay. Again, before legally gaining the status of a refugee these migrants are considered unauthorized. Black (2003: 34) ´examines the responses by [...] related disciplines to asylum-seeking and other forms of migration that are increasingly categorised as ´illegal´´. He critically discusses the term of illegal migration. As illegal migration is associated with asylum seekers and refugees, this thesis will include the term illegal migration in the definition of unauthorized migration. Hence, terminology wise this thesis has chosen to refer to unauthorized migration flows with regard to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis, as the term includes further forms of migration, such as irregular, illegal and undocumented migration.
Within this thesis the International Organisation of Migration´s (IOM) data collection on measuring migration flows is identified as a reliable source and the ´best estimation´. Other datasets such as CLANDESTINO also offer an insight into measuring unauthorized migration flows. Vogel et al. (2011) used CLANDESTINO data amongst other data in order to analyze the number of migrants arriving in Europe irregularly. Nevertheless, the IOM´s data offers a more in depth analysis on migration flows due to the implementation of the DTM and active field staff. Therefore, the IOM´s data is considered as a neutral baseline that capture the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe. Additionally, the BAFM data will be highlighted. The CDU´s representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe during the so-called ongoing refugee crisis has been identified as a feasible case study.
The CDU will be closely examined. The CDU is the leading centre-right conservative party within Germany. Also, the CDU is a people´s party. Germany is the largest EU member state and many migrants arriving in Europe aim on traveling further to seek asylum in Germany (European Union, 2017; BBC, 4th of September 2015). The CDU has been chosen, as Germany is a well established and stable EU member state. Also, the CDU is at present the main leading party within Germany. The CDU´s representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe will be closely portrayed. The assumption is that the CDU presents reliable data on migrants arriving in Europe. Similarities between the IOM analysis of migrants arriving in Europe and the CDU´s outline of migrants arriving in Europe are expected. Disparities will also be expected as the CDU relies on documents published by the Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF) and the number of migrants arriving in Europe do not always match exactly within different datasets. The thesis´s puzzle is trying to answer the question on why data is presented differently or similarly at various points throughout the last two years in order to analyze the relationship between the number of migrants arriving in Europe and the political representation of the numbers related to the migrants who have been said to have entered Europe. Hence, the research question is drafted as followed: What is the relationship between the number of migrants entering Europe in an unauthorized manner and political representation of the number of migrants who are said to have arrived to Europe?
The correlation between the number of migrants arriving in Europe and the political representation of these numbers has been identified as a research gap. The measuring of the number of migrants arriving in Europe and comparing the numbers to the CDU´s representation is vital to consider. Even though the so-called ongoing refugee crisis has been discussed in depth by various scholars
there is a lack of research which examines the comparison and correlation of the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe by institutions, such as the IOM, and their political representation. Therefore, this thesis will analyze whether the numbers published by the IOM match the numbers political elites claim entered Europe. Referring to the numbers this thesis will highlight peaks of migration flows of the selected case study and will then analyze political elites´ reactions within that period of time in order to discuss whether the numbers published by the IOM and the political elites´ reactions correlate causally or through circumstances.
This thesis concludes that the IOM is considered a ´best estimation´ with regard to measuring unauthorized migration as accurately as possible. The BAMF data complements the IOM data although the BAMF does not measure unauthorized migration flows. Empirical chronologies of the crisis have been established highlighting the IOM´s and the BAMF´s perspective of the crisis. The initial aim was to establish an empirical chronology of the CDU´s representation of the crisis, but this was not possible due to the fact that the CDU rarely refers to direct numbers. However, it is vital to highlight that when the CDU does refer to numbers these numbers do show similarities to the IOM data. The CDU does not construct this particular crisis. Nevertheless, it is noticeable that the CDU does pick and choose certain numbers and events that fit their agenda. This leads to a form of misperception within society, as the CDU does truthfully present numbers, uses these, however, in order to highlight the party´s success with respect to certain events and policies.
This conclusion has been drawn from highlighting the construction and securitization of crises within its literature review. The conceptual framework discusses the politics of numbers, unauthorized migration flows as well as political communication. Semi-structured interviews and document analysis are the two methods applied within this thesis. The IOM findings, as well as the BAMF and CDU analysis are highlighted before discussing and comparing these finding in order to highlight the relationship between the number of migrants arriving in Europe and the political representation of these numbers.
Literature review
The theory of crisis, crisis construction, and crisis securitization demonstrate that crises are fabricated and constructed by political elites for their own benefit.
Theory of crisis
The so-called ongoing refugee crisis has been selected as the thesis´ case study. Particular attention will be paid to the German political representation. It is important to highlight the theory of crisis in order to establish a basis of understanding the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. Firstly, the term crisis will be defined before highlighting the construction and securitization of crises.
Shaluf et al. (2003: 24) argue that ´[c]risis may develop from political, economic issues as well as from disasters´. Furthermore, Shaluf et al. (2003) state that no universally tolerated definition of crisis exists. However, Shaluf et al. (2003) attempt to define crises. ´The original meaning of the word ´crisis´ is a situation in which important decisions have to be made in a short time´ (Shaluf et al., 2004: 29). Furthermore, ´[a] crisis may also be defined by feelings of panic, fear, danger and shock´ and each crisis has unique traits (Darling, 1994: 5). Davies et al. (1998: 6) define a crisis ´as a ´´turning point for better or worse´, ´decisive moment´ or ´crucial time´ i.e. a situation that has reached a critical phase´. A crisis ´is a man-made event´, has perks and disadvantages, and a crisis ´is a situation in which a decision has to be made in a short time´ (Shaluf et al., 2003: 27). Also, a crisis is ´subjectively perceived, and brought into existence through narrative and discourse´ (Hier and Greenberg, 2002: 491). Crises occur in various sectors such as ´business failure crisis, creeping crisis, political crisis, environmental crisis, industrial crisis, community crisis, [...], corporate crisis´ and financial crisis (Shaluf et al., 2003: 25; Burnham, 2011: 493). This thesis considers Shaluf et al. ´s (2003: 27) definition of crises as a suitable way of looking at crises, especially referring to a ´man-made event´, as this thesis refers to the construction of crises within a political discourse.
The Arab Spring events, also referred to as the Arab Uprising, highlights events mainly within the MENA countries that have led to an influx of migrants arriving in Europe. These events have been considered a crisis within the media, political discourse and among scholars (e.g. European Commission, 2016). This thesis refers to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis when discussing the increase of migrants arriving in Europe due to the Arab Uprising. Different terminology is applied
when referring to the amount of migration to Europe. Terms like ´refugee crisis´ (DeBono, 2016; Albahani, 2015; Guild et al., 2015), ´European refugee crisis´ (Rozakou, 2017), ´migration crisis´ (Pallister-Wilkins, 2016; Jeandesboz and Pallister-Wilkins, 2016; Perkowski, 2016), ´humanitarian crisis´ (Perkowski, 2016; Thakur, 2013) are used in order to describe the current situation. Noticeable is also that some scholars refer to the this crisis by using quotation marks. ´´Crisis´ also suggests, or asks us to consider, the idea of a ´crisis´ for whom? The Mediterranean ´migration crisis´ is painted as a crisis for Europe´ (Pallister-Wilkins, 2016: 314). Due to the influx of migration it is considered a European crisis. However, it is also important to question who else is affected by the crisis and who is suffering. Hence, this crisis cannot only be described as a European crisis due to the severe suffering taking place in various MENA countries such as Syria, Egypt and Jordan, which leads to the increase of migrants arriving in Europe from the MENA regions (Howard et al., 2011).
Within this sections Shaluf et al.´s definition of crises has led to a greater understanding of crises. Furthermore, many terms have been used in order to describe the current influx of migration arriving in Europe. This thesis has decided to refer to the term ´so-called ongoing refugee crisis´, as it is migration from the MENA regions to Europe that is still occurring. Also, the term ´so-called´ has been chosen, as many different phrases have been associated with this particular crisis and it is vital to understand that one term might not cover all aspects of this complex migration influx.
Construction of crises
In order to answer the question on how political representation influences the perceptions of migration flows it is important to highlight the concepts of construction of crises as well as securitization of crisis. Scholars have argued that crises can be perceived differently and can be constructed by political elites, for example. In the following, these concepts will be outlined by referring to important scholarly work.
´A great political scientist, Murray Edelman, argued that ´crises´ are simply certain events that are defined in a certain way and promoted to serve the political interest of leaders - and, we could add, other interest groups - who will benefit from these definitions. He observes that ´crisis´ is oriented
action (Edelman 1971, 1985). Fear is used increasingly to define crises and to bump along those claims so that leaders can take political action, against ´external enemies´ or ´internal enemies´´
(Altheide, 2002: 12).
Within this statement Altheide argues that political elites construct crises in order to fulfill their political interests. Fear is used in order to construct crises. Also, McNamee et al. (1992: 197) highlight that a crisis ´is a cooperative, communal construction´, which indicates that crises can be perceived as being constructed. Further scholars deal with the topic of constructed crises (Pieper, 2016; Linschinsky, 2011; McBeth et al., 2014; Bourne et al., 2015). Not every scholar refers to migration crises, but highlights the process of constructing crises based on portraying various crises. Nevertheless, their analysis of constructed crises are relevant to the thesis´ topic as Shaluf (2003: 25) pointed out that crises do not only occur within the field of migration, but also in the the economic sphere, for example.
Linschinsky (2011: 153), for example, deals with the topic of the global financial crisis and argues that ´labelling [certain events] as a crisis is a prime example of the social construction of economic phenomena´. This demonstrates that perceiving certain actions as a crisis already is a form of constructing a crisis. Linschinsky (2011: 154) also refers to the importance of crisis communication within the discourse of constructing crises, which will be discussed more closely in the following. Also, Macbeth et al. (2014: 138) discuss whether crises are ´constructed through policy narratives´ and contribute to the understanding of constructed crises. Additionally, ´the construction of a crisis involves two paradoxical components: first, the state´s ability to respond to the perceived crisis; and second, the state´s ability to identify, define, and contribute to the construction of that crisis´ (Hier and Greenberg, 2002: 491-492). This statement highlights that a state is involved in how a crisis is perceived as well as the fact that crises are recognized differently in various states. Hier and Greenberg (2002) analyze the Canadian situation in 1999. Approximately 600 Fujianese migrants arrived in Canada unauthorized. These scholars discuss how these migrants ´were ´problematized´ and transformed into a discursive crisis centre on the constructs of ´risk´ and, more precisely, ´risk avoidance´´ (Hier and Greenberg, 2002: 490). Hier and Greenberg (2002: 509) analyzed the Canadian media coverage on this particular topic and concluded that fear, anxiety, ´social change, racial integration and contested Euro-Canadian hegemony´ within society led to the ´discursive construction of a crisis´. Moreover, Boin et al. conclude that strategies referring to crisis exploitation do matter. This article also highlights the importance of media within the framing
context of crises, such as Greussing et al´s (2017) article. Greussing et al. (2017) focus on one country in particular whereas this article offers an analysis of 15 different cases referring to crises and framed incidents, which offers a greater variety of crises exploitation. Boin et al. (2009: 81) argue that crises ´generate framing contests to interpret event, their causes, and the responsibility and lessons involved in ways that suit their political purposes and visions of future policy directions ´. This leads to the assumption that within a political discourse political elites use certain events in their favor, which is a form of crisis construction. Questionable is whether this is applicable to the case of the CDU. Hence, a sub question of this research is: Are crises constructed by political elites using certain events in order to manufacture a crisis?
Securitization of crises
It is important to highlight the aspect of securitizing crises in order to analyze the impact organizations such as FRONTEX have regarding the number of migrants arriving in Europe as well as the CDU´s opinion on securitizing borders, for example, with reference to the amount of migration.
Bourbeau (2011: 1) argues that ´[i]nternational migration has become a key security issue and is perceived, in some eyes, as an existential security threat. Scholars have referred to this current state of affairs as securitized migration or as the securitization of migration´. This statement highlights the importance of the topic with reference to the securitization of migration. Also, McDonald (2008: 565) argues that especially after 9/11 ´there is now a vast array of analyses of the securitization of migration´. Furthermore, Castles (2003: 13) deals with the topic of migration and security. An influx of migrants can be perceived as posing a threat on a state. This then leads to securitizing borders (Ceyhan, 2002: 22). Arguably, the current influx of migrants arriving in Europe leads to certain parts of society feeling threatened. Buonfino (2004) assesses how security concerns have become a dominant point of discussion within the European political discourse. Buonfino refers to Bigo´s statement arguing that ´proliferation of border controls, the repression of foreigners and so on, has less to do with protection than with a political attempt to reassure certain segments of the electorate longing for evidence of concrete measures taken to ensure safety´ (Bigo, 2002: 2 in Buonfino, 2002: 23). This indicates that securitization measures can be perceived as politically constructed. Furthermore, Buonfino (2002: 48) argues ´[b]ecause of the fear and perceived risk that immigration arouses in receiving societies, securitization has gradually become the optimal national
discourse type amongst many possible, coexisting discourses competing for hegemony´. This leads to the assumption that in the case of the so-called ongoing refugee crisis securitization measures are used in order to ensure safety among society. This shows that it is important to link the political representation referring to the number of migrants arriving in Europe to the aspect of securitizing migration. Furthermore, Huysmans (2000: 751) deals with the topic of ´how migration has developed into a security issues in western Europe and how the European integration process is implicated in it´. Huysmans (2000: 751) believes that from the 1980s onwards the aspect of migration to and within Europe has been politically constructed. Additionally, Huysmans (2000: 751) analyses ´social construction of migration into a security question´. Huysmans (2000: 751) concludes that ´supporting the political construction of migration as a security issue impinges on and is embedded in the politics of belonging in western Europe´. This leads to the assumption that securitization of migration can be referred to as being constructed, too.
FRONTEX is a border control agency that has been established in 2004 (Neal, 2009: 333). FRONTEX frequently publishes data on irregular migration to Europe in their FRAN Quarterly
reports (FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 4: Oct.-Dec. 2016). As this European agency is often referred to
within the political discourse during the so-called ongoing refugee crisis it is important to be aware of its involvement (Guild et al., 2015: 4; Albahari, 2015: 1).
Furthermore, irregular migration is a form of unauthorized migration. Combating irregular migration by enhancing security measures at the EU external borders is a form of securitization. The CDU refers to irregular and illegal migration as well as to FRONTEX, which is why it is important to highlight the aspect of securitizing migration in the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. Hence, securitization of migration has an impact on the CDU´s portrayal of the number of migrants arriving in Europe.
Conclusion
Overall, the presented literature on crisis construction and crisis securitization highlights that former crises have been fabricated and manufactured by political elites for their own purpose and benefit (McNamee, 1992; Linschinsky, 2011; Hier and Greenberg, 2002; Burbeau, 2011; Buonfino, 2004; Huysmans, 2000). Referring to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis it is vital to observe whether numbers of migrants arriving in Europe have been and are constructed by political elites. Hence, the
following chapter will take an conceptual stance on how numbers are represented in the political discourse as well as demonstrating how challenging it is to identify and measure the number of unauthorized migrants arriving in Europe. So far, it is not clear whether it is possible to find numbers of unauthorized migrants referring to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis.
Conceptual framework
The concept of politics of numbers will be highlighted. This concept sheds light upon how numbers can be used in order to construct a crisis. Analyzing to what degree a crisis is constructed based upon measuring unauthorized migration flows is particularly difficult, as finding accurately and precisely portrayed numbers of a crisis is challenging.
Politics of numbers
Alonso and Starr´s (1987) book The Politics of Numbers is considered one of the most important contributions to the concept of politics of numbers. The politics of numbers refers to the process of converting ´distinctive qualities […] into numerical quantities, which are then compared and assessed in terms of orders of magnitudes´ (Broome and Quirk, 2015: 814). Furthermore, the politics of numbers is an aspect of generating ´a large volume of numerical information describing practices through the globe´ in order to improve unreliable, inconsistent and incomplete data within the political sphere (Broome and Quirk, 2015: 814). Throughout Alonso and Starr´s (1987) work the question about who will have access to the numbers and how reliable they are is evaluated and discussed. Alonso and Starr´s (1987) contribution to the politics of numbers can be criticized for being outdated. However, Brewer (1989: 358) believes that it ´hardly matters that its focus is on the 1980s because its message are for 1990s, and beyond´. Alonso and Starr´s (1987) work further highlights what is getting counted and states that ´much modern politics can be observed and understood in term of competing pressures on deciding what and whom to count´ (Brewer, 1989: 357). Antonelli (2016: 351) believes that ´on the basis of political interests and the political mobilization of a public budget for official statistics research, some social problems could be expelled by the production of official statistics because they are unwelcome or not considered important by political elites´. The EU has invested vast amounts of money in measuring migration flows and migrants arriving in Europe, but lacks and inconsistencies are still associated with statistical datasets within the EU (European Commission, 2017). Hence, Antonelli´s claim of problems vanishing through increasing budgets is not applicable in the case of the so-called ongoing refugee crisis.
Since 1987 vast changes referring to technological advances of measuring numbers have taken place. The ´digitalization of data construction through both new instruments (e.g. web
questionnaire) and new means of collection (e.g. smart-phone)´ have broadened the possibility within the sphere of the politics of numbers (Antonelli, 2016: 352). Also, Antonelli (2016: 352) states that social networks offer a greater amount of data available for analysis with regard to societal, economic and political changes.
Broome and Quirk (2015: 814) argue that ´[i]t is hard to think of any area of International Relations, from international security to global political economy, grand strategy, climate change, human rights, international development, and global public policy, which has not been pulled into this politics of numbers´. Hence, it is an important aspect of migration studies, as migration is discussed within international relations.
Brewer (1989) states that the concept of the politics of numbers links to the sociology of official statistics. Antonelli (2016: 351) defines the sociology of official statistics as ´an analysis of the relationship between an expert system as the official statistics System and the governance system; between technical and cultural problems and political problems and their connections to cross-national and global levels […] beyond methodological and epistemological aspects´. The sociology of official statistics is considered an objective phenomenon in order to ´support description of social and economic situations, denunciations of social injustices and justifications for political actions´ (Antonelli, 2016: 351). However, the reliability of objectivity with reference to the number of politics has been questioned and highly criticized (Antonelli, 2016).
Additionally, the politics of numbers is associated with questions such as whether ´numbers can be trusted […] [w]hat is to be counted and by whom´, ´[i]n which direction is the trend line moving´ as well as ´[w]ho is at fault for the (now numerically defined) failure of a policy or program´ (Prewitt, 1987: 261). Furthermore, the politics of numbers refers to ´numerical estimates and forecasts´ (Prewitt, 1987: 261). Vogel et al. (2011) argues that referring to irregular migrants arriving in Europe it is the case that the numbers are mainly based on estimations. Additionally, political scientists focus on ´how numbers are generated, and then used or misused in politics´ (Prewitt, 1987: 261). Prewitt (1987: 261) claims that ´public statistics are not politically neutral´.
He does not refer directly to statistics on unauthorized migration flows, however, his statement can be used to highlight political subjectiveness with regard to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. Political elites are accused of using publicly available data in their favor. Is that the case for the
CDU? This aspect will be discussed within this thesis. Lewis (2001) believes that political elites construct public opinion. Additionally, Sevenans et al (2016: 605) argue that ´aggregate political agenda-setting effects are a consequence of the way in which individual MPs process media information that matches their task-related needs´. Sevenans et al focus on Belgium, however, their statement referring to political elites using or rather misusing data-sets that fit their agenda and opinion is also applicable to other countries such as Germany. In this context it is important to highlight that ´political agendas are influenced by the media agenda´ (Sevenans, 2016: 605).
When referring to the politics of numbers ´cherry picking´ is another effect that needs to be considered. ´Cherry picking of data means we look for particular data and statistics that help us illustrate our point of view. It can also mean we present data in a certain way which is more favorable to creating the impression we want. Even the same statistic can be presented in different ways to give a very different impression´ (Economics, 25th July 2016). Due to the presumed outcome that political elites pick and choose data in their favor the ´cherry picking´ effect is a vital aspects that needs to be considered.
Unauthorized migration flows
Politicians, experts and scholars focusing on migration as well as policymakers are interested in further measuring unauthorized migration flows worldwide. Advantages and disadvantages of different methods will be portrayed as well as analyzing how reliable certain methods of measuring unauthorized migration flows are. As mentioned beforehand, representation of numbers sheds light upon whether crises are considered constructed and securitized. Measuring unauthorized migration in order to examine whether a crisis is constructed is particularly challenging due to the difficult nature of measuring unauthorized migration flows.
Passel et al´s work focuses on unauthorized migrants within the United States and mainly researches Mexican unauthorized migration. Passel et al´s approach is a form of measuring unauthorized migration flows. Passel et al´s method is particularly important as it directly refers to the term unauthorized migration, whereas Massey et al´s (2004) method as well as Kraler and Reichel´s (2011) research can be linked to unauthorized migration flows, but does not use the term of unauthorized migration flows.
Furthermore, it is important to define migration flows with regard to unauthorized migration flows. It is also vital to differentiate between migration stocks and migrations flows. Migration stock refers to the absolute number of people born in a certain state different to the state they live in. Migration flows are associated with the number of persons migrating in a certain time frame (Abel and Sander, 2014). Searching for valid and feasible data on migration stocks is less complicated and more accessible than finding reliable data on migration flows (Massey et al, 2004). Abel et al. (2014) are specialized on documenting global migration flows and offer detailed graphs and statistics on migration flows from 1990 to 2010. Nevertheless, it is important to critically assess the migration flows´ sources, as data on unauthorized migration flows are considered estimations and need to be analyzed carefully before making bold claims on patterns and developments of unauthorized migration flows worldwide.
Passel et al´s definition of unauthorized migration states that unauthorized migrants are not ´legal´, as they are undocumented or non-immigrants, visa overstayers and individuals that enter a certain state without inspection (EWIs - ´entries without inspection´) (Passel et al, 2005: 9). Furthermore, Passel et al (2005: 9) state that another ´view of this population is to consider various administrative categories not included in the estimated legal foreign-born population´. For example, individuals that ´have applied for asylum but have not had their cases adjudicated´ (Passel et al, 2005: 9). Hence, individuals may enter a country legally but are awaiting their work permit or residential permit, which in various cases will not be approved, and could then result in a case of unauthorized migration. In other words, a certain amount of unauthorized migration belongs to the category of having ´full legal statuses sending but are not yet fully legal´ (Passel et al, 2005: 9).
Graph 1 demonstrates the case of unauthorized migration flows within the United States compared to legal immigrants from the 1980s to March 2004. Noticeable is that from 1995 onwards the amount of unauthorized migration is distinctly higher than the amount of legal immigration within the United States. The question is how unauthorized migration is measured in this particular case and whether this is a unique case or if it is applicable to different states. Passel et al´s (2005: 7) method of identifying unauthorized migrants is by taking the total sum of foreign-born individuals (census) minus the legal foreign-born (estimation). This equation of measuring unauthorized migration seems simplistic and questionable is whether Passel et al´s method provides society with reliable numbers of unauthorized migrants within a certain state.
Graph 1:
Source: http://www.migrantclinician.org/files/resourcebox/pew_hispanic_center.pdf
Also, Massey and Capoferro (2004) focus on measuring migrants, in particular undocumented migration. Within the thesis´ definition of unauthorized migration undocumented migrants are considered a form of unauthorized migration. These two scholars assess data sources to measure undocumented migration by identifying problems regarding existing data and forms of measuring migration such as the registration system. The registration system is not highly reliable in order to measure unauthorized migration flows, as individuals who are undocumented and unauthorized will not approach a registration office or ´voluntarily [go] to governmental representatives upon arrival´ (Massey et al, 2004: 1080). However, this article was published in 2004 and since then further data sets of how to measure undocumented migrants have been established that need to be considered. Arguably, measuring migration flows is flawed and inconsistent, which undermines Massey et al´s ethnographic research (Butler, 2017; Abel and Sandler, 2014). Further scholars that have engaged with the topic of measuring migration are Donato et al (2011). Donato et al. (2011) argue that unauthorized migration has been a highly discussed topic for several decades. They outline complexities associated with measuring unauthorized migration flows and believe that the increase and ´prominence of the unauthorized population […] is related to the emergence of scholarship
emphasizing the social construction of immigrant legal states´ (Donato et al., 2011: 529). This leads to the assumptions that measuring issues can lead to the construction of a crisis.
Also, Kraler and Reichel (2011) offer a vast amount of statistical data relying on data sources from various European countries including Germany. In the case of Germany Kraler and Reichel (2011) highlight the Fremdenstatistik of 2007. Kraler and Reichel´s (2011) research might offer an insight into statistical data on Germany, but does not offer information on unauthorized migration to Europe. Vogel et al (2011) dedicate their research to a European level of measuring migration. Terminology wise Vogel et al. (2011) refer to irregular migration. Irregular migration can be considered a form of unauthorized migration, as migrants cross borders in an unauthorized manner. In Vogel et al´s research (2011: 83) asylum seekers are excluded from the definition of irregular migration. Triandafyllidou (2016: 8) argues that the ´rejection of asylum seeking applications, or withdrawal of toleration status are other important types of ´status flows´ into irregular status´. This demonstrates that scholars and experts define irregular and unauthorized migration flows differently. This leads to the assumption that also measuring unauthorized migration flows is perceived differently within the academic sphere. Within this thesis asylum applications and asylum seekers arriving in Europe will be considered as being part of unauthorized migration flows, as not every asylum application is successful, which leads to asylum applicants regaining the status of an unauthorized and irregular migrant. Vogel et al (2011: 78) argue that it ´is difficult to estimate the size of the irregular migrant population in a specific city or country, and even more difficult to arrive at estimates at the European level´. Moreover, Vogel et al (2011) believe that previous research is based on rules-of-thumb estimations. Within their research Vogel et al (2011) developed the method of aggregated estimations, which is a system of analyzing previously published work of scholars and EU datasets such as CLANDESTINO. This method has been chosen due to the fact that estimated numbers of migrants have been stated without offering any justification. Tyldum and Brunovsky (2005) believe that false data is worse than no data published. However, Vogel et al (2011: 92) state that ´if there are no data, there will be wrong and misleading estimates´. Therefore, Vogel et al (2011) suggest that it is more beneficial to highlight medium quality data rather than not publishing any numbers on migration flows. Questionable, however, is whether this is a feasible approach and whether this approach works in the European political context. Their method of aggregated estimations is considered an estimation of medium quality or rather a ´sophisticated literature review´ (Vogel et al, 2011: 92). Yet, inaccurate numbers quoted in the media could falsely misinform and mislead society (Clarke, 2000). Furthermore, Triandafyllidou (2016: 1) states that
´[m]ost policy and media reports are based on ´guesstimates´ which often acquire a life of their own. Numbers, once quoted, are cited again and again, and obtain the character of a scientific finding without, however, finding any methodological or conceptual backing´. This statement, again, demonstrates that challenges exist with reference to portraying migration flows correctly and adequately. Hence, ´easy access to well-documented and transparent information is a necessary first step for creating greater clarity around estimates of the size of irregular migration´ (Vogel et al, 2011: 81). Transparency, differentiation and comparability is especially important on a European level in order to measure unauthorized migration flows to Europe (Vogel and Kovacheva, 2009). Nevertheless, various different measuring and estimation methods exist in Europe, which makes it harder to establish a standardized system (Jandl, 2008). Different methods exist in various EU member states, as countries set different priorities as well as the fact that measuring migration flows is a costly business and certain states do not feel the need to invest in measuring migration flows (Vogel et al, 2011). Furthermore, Vogel (2016) has criticized the aspect of measuring irregular migrants from 2015 onwards due to the number of migrants arriving in the EU seeking asylum. She highlights the case of Germany and how the BAMF struggles to deal with the large number of asylum seekers (Vogel, 2016: 5). Nonetheless, not only Germany is affected by an increase of asylum seekers, but also countries such as Greece and Italy struggle immensely with a larger amount of migration. Hence, Vogel (2016: 1) claims that estimations for 2015 are more complicated as well as the fact that for ´2016, an increase in the number of undocumented immigrants can be assumed which cannot yet be concretely assessed´. Nevertheless, institutions such as the IOM do attempt measuring migration flows. From Vogel´s perspective the IOM´s data cannot be accurate. Nevertheless, this thesis defines the IOM´s approach of measuring migration flows as feasible in order to assess the relationship between the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe and the political elites representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe.
Moreover, measuring unauthorized migration flows may be regarded as measuring the uncountable. The concept of irregular and unauthorized migration ´is by nature a non-registered phenomenon´ (Triandafyllidou, 2016: 6). Triandafyllidou (2016: 7) believes that within the EU Spain is the only country that has a registration system that effectively captures undocumented, unauthorized and irregular migration flows within their country. ´Spanish migration law [...] tries to ensure that irregular migrants register at their municipality of residence´ (Triandafyllidou, 2016: 7). This system has led to successfully tracking migration flows within Spain. Also, datasets such as the IOM monitor and measure mixed migration flows to tackle the issue of inconsistent data on
unauthorized migration. Nonetheless, Triandafyllidou (2016: 1) argues that the concept of irregular migration is still a topic within the political sphere that is under-researched. More attention on improving measuring methods and abilities are a necessity in order to improve validity on statistics with regard to various types of migration flows such as irregular migration flows and unauthorized migration flows. Furthermore, Morehouse and Blomfield (2011: 14) argue that ´[c]ombating irregular migration in the coming years is likely to remain challenging´. This statement shows that there has not been an ideal version or method discovered to track and measure unauthorized migration flows accurately. Nevertheless, feasible attempts have been made such as the IOM´s method of measuring migration flows.
The IOM offers an insight into measuring migration flows on a European level. The European Union prioritizes measuring migration flows, as due ´to security and financial concerns, increasing resources are devoted to preventing people from entering and staying without authorization, and to enforcing the return of non-EU citizens who are not or are no longer authorized to stay´ (Vogel et al, 2011: 78). Hence, the EU instructs the IOM to closely measure mixed migration flows to Europe. The IOM works with various migration datasets and databases in order to establish valid numbers referring to migration flows. For example, the IOM uses databases such as the DataBank - The World Bank; Eurostat; FRONTEX; OECD: International Migration data, and UNHRC Population Statistics database (IOM, 2016). All these databases are vital in order to critically analyze unauthorized migration flows.
Overall, the existing literature highlights that measuring unauthorized migration flows is complicated. Scholars and researchers have put a lot of effort into portraying migration flows as accurately as possible by using various methods and estimations. It is explicit and clear that missing data, inconsistencies and disadvantages are associated with methods trying to measure, monitor and truthfully present unauthorized migration flows. Nevertheless, it is important to further focus on improving methods with reference to unauthorized migration flows in order to avoid false representation. However, disagreements amongst scholars occur with reference to their aim for perfection before publishing data rather than publishing medium quality data (Tyldum and Brunovsky, 2005; Vogel et al, 2011).
The literature presented highlights that it is difficult to establish an accurate measuring method on how to capture unauthorized migration flows precisely due to its complexity. However, Vogel et al. ´s method of aggregated estimations offers a thorough overview and estimation of irregular
migration flows. Even though scholars refer to measuring unauthorized migration as measuring the uncountable (Triandafyllidou, 2016) or that challenges associated with measuring unauthorized migration are not easily to overcome (Morehouse and Blomfield, 2011), estimates do offer an insight into unauthorized migration flows. Hence, estimations are considered a form of portraying unauthorized migration flows as accurately as possible. Within this project the IOM data is considered the ´best estimation´ referring to measuring unauthorized migration flows. Questionable, is whether it is possible to develop an empirically verifiable chronology of the crisis. Within this thesis, it is assumed that it is possible to establish an overview of the number of migrants arriving in Europe unauthorized. The gap this literature highlights is the question how these numbers correlate with the political representation of the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe.
Political Communication
Political communication is important in the process of understanding how political parties communicate the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe. Also, communication among politicians and political actors is an important aspect when referring to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. This is due to the fact that all EU member states are affected by the influx of migrants arriving in Europe. Some member states are more affected than other states. Nevertheless, especially in such a situation it is important to focus on political communication within the EU as well as within affected states itself. In the following the concept of political communication will be observed more closely with reference to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis.
McNair (2011: 3) argues that the term political communication is difficult to define as the term
political as well as the term communication include various types of definitions. Denton and
Woodward (1990) and Perloff (1998) argue that political communication is seen as a form of written and verbal statements within the political sphere. Also, ´public communication involves public discussion, official authority, and official sanctions´ (Wasburn, 1986: 465). Furthermore, the content of political communication is intentional (McNair, 2011: 4; Denton and Woodward, 1990: 11). McNair´s (2011: 4) definition of political communication follows ´Denton and Woodward by stressing the intentionality of political communication, which [is defined] simply as purposeful communication about politics´. Additionally, McNair highlights three aspects that are incorporated with reference to political communication:
1. ´All forms of communication undertaken by politicians and other political actors for the purpose of achieving specific objectives.
2. Communication addressed to these actors by non-politicians such as voters and newspaper columnists.
3. Communication about these actors and their activities, as contained in news reports, editorials, and other forms of media discussion of politics.´
Graph 2:
Graph 2 demonstrates the different c o m p o n e n t s o f p o l i t i c a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n . P o l i t i c a l organizations interact with the media and vice versa. Citizens interact with the media as well as the media with the citizens. This indicates that McNair´s definition of political communication covers and incorporates most aspects of political discourses. The aspect of p olitical co mmu nication is important to the thesis topic. Observing the CDU´s political communication within the party as well as further actors, such as the EC, sheds light upon the CDU´s representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe during the so-called ongoing refugee crisis.
Conclusion
Overall, the concept of politics of numbers, introduced by Alonso and Starr (1987) clarifies the importance of numbers within a political discourse (Antonelli, 2016). Measuring issues and problems associated with portraying unauthorized migration flows demonstrate the difficulties and complexity of finding accurately presented numbers of unauthorized migration flows (Massey et al.,
2004; Abel and Sander, 2014; Passel et al., 2005; Kraler and Reichel, 2011; Vogel et al., 2011). This thesis, however, assumes though that it is possible to select numbers that estimate the representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe sufficiently. The research gap, highlighted within this chapter, is the lack of demonstrating the correlation and relationship between the representation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe and the the political representation of these numbers. The concept of political communications portrays the importance of political communication processes within a party in order to analyze whether crises are constructed intentionally (McNair, 2011; Washburn, 1986).
Methodology
Introduction
This chapter will highlight the methods chosen and applied within this particular thesis. Why specific methods have been chosen over other methods applicable to social sciences will be explained and what these chosen methods entail. Documents and qualitative semi-structured interviews will be used for analysis. There will be a discussion of the aim on these interviews and of the basis for the choice of the documents presented in the course of the analysis.
Document analysis
Bowen (2009) discusses the impact of document analysis as a qualitative method. In order to establish the relationship between the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe and the political representation of the numbers of migrants entering Europe unauthorized, it is vital to highlight, examine and compare documents published by the IOM versus CDU and BAMF documents. This method has been chosen in order to discuss the relationship between the representation of numbers by the IOM and the numbers highlighted by the CDU. The IOM document analysis consists of selecting numbers of migrants arriving in Europe and establishing graphs and charts to offer a timeline that shows how many migrants arrived to Europe from January 2015 onwards. These graphs as well as the timeline are mainly created by the thesis´ author. The IOM website published and publishes documents that contain data on mixed migration flows on migrants arriving in Europe. These documents have been analyzed closely in order to establish an accurate representation of how many migrants arrived and are arriving in Europe. The IOM data is treated as a ´best estimate´ of numbers referring to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis as an empirical phenomenon, which is why the IOM data has been chosen in order to represent the number of migrants arriving in Europe. The timeline established referring to the IOM data will be compared with the representation of numbers by the CDU. Also, these CDU documents are analyzed to assess how numbers impact on the CDU´s representation of the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. The assessed CDU documents consist of published speeches, policy documents and official statement by CDU representatives and politicians. These documents highlight a less empirical analysis of the crisis, which is considered a limitation referring to the empirical comparison of the IOM data and the BAMF data. These documents published by the CDU were found via the Bundesregierungs
website, websites of CDU representatives and via the Bundestag. Furthermore, the BAMF data, portrayed within this thesis, has been extracted from BAMF documents that demonstrate how many migrants have applied for asylum within Germany and also within Europe. The graphs represented in the analysis are mainly established by the thesis´ author.
Semi-Structured Interviews
Longhurst (2003: 143) defines a semi-structured interview as ´a verbal interchange where one person, the interviewer, attempts to elicit information from another person by asking questions´. There are different types of conducting interviews - structured interviews; semi-structured interviews; unstructured interviews. Leech (2002: 665) argues that semi-structured interviews ´can provide detail, depth, and an insider´s perspective, while at the same time allowing hypothesis testing and the quantitative analysis of interview responses´. Additionally, Leech (2002: 665) highlights that semi-structured interviews entail open-ended questions, which is a method that is often used within a political discourse. Galletta (2013: 24) argues that semi-structured interviews offer ´a repertoire of possibilities´. A semi-structured interview ´is sufficiently structured to address specific topics related to the phenomenon of study, while leaving space for participants to offer new meanings to the study´, which can be considered as a positive trait of semi-structured interviews. However, this method has also been criticized (Alvesson, 2003; Diefenbach, 2009). A negative aspect of semi-structured interviews is that semi-structured questions are harder to compare if questions differ from interview to interview. Also, great flexibility might lead to weakened reliability. Nevertheless, this method has been selected as a feasible approach to this particular thesis, as a great advantage of semi-structured interviews is that it is a more flexible approach than conducting structured interviews (Galletta, 2013; Noor, 2008: 1604). This flexibility highlights the fact that the interviewer can address certain topics and aspects mentioned in the interviews more closely or refer to other aspects if needed, which is a reason why this method has been chosen for this thesis. The aim of this thesis is achieving insightful answers relevant to the thesis´ topic by asking semi-structured questions. Barriball and While (1994: 330) state that semi-structured interviews ´are well suited for the exploration of the perceptions and opinions of respondents regarding complex and sometimes sensitive issues and enable probing for more information and clarification of answers´.
The purpose and goal of applying semi-structured interviews to this topic is to gain more information on unauthorized migration flows to Europe from experts dealing with the numbers of migration as well as CDU experts in order to compare the IOM´s analysis of migration flows to Europe and the CDU´s analysis of migration flows to Europe. Additionally, the aim of conducting semi-structured interviews is to investigate and review the analysis of the relationship between the IOM data and the CDU´s representation of the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. This method has been chosen over other methods, because semi-structured interviews offer an insight into how experts view the situation on unauthorized migration flows to Europe, which is most achievable via semi-structured interviews within the timeframe of this thesis. Hence, experts on this particular topic have been contacted in order to analyze and further investigate the relationship between the numbers represented by the IOM and the CDU.
Within the timeframe of this thesis project 43 potential interview partners have been contacted via email or phone. A detailed list on who has been contacted highlights the efforts that have been made in order to conduct valuable interviews . However, it was only possible to conduct two interview s. 1 One with an academic from the Fachhochschule Freiburg, who is specialized on migration and societal consequences of migration. The second interview partner requested to stay anonymous, which is why when referring to this particular interview the thesis will refer to this person as the head of Foundation xx. Further scholars and expert have been contacted, but interviews have either been canceled at the last minute or the contacted experts did not reply. Furthermore, not only experts have been contacted, but also CDU politicians as well as BAMF employees in order to further examine the relationship between the numbers represented by the IOM and the CDU from a German perspective. However, no CDU politicians were willing to conduct an interview, as the German federal elections are in September of this year and these politicians have a tight working schedule. Furthermore, several experts working for the BAMF have been contacted in order to gain a greater insight into how the German system measures migration and asylum seekers. The BAMF has been struggling recently, though, as a German citizen applied for asylum at the BAMF and was granted asylum. This highlights that there are gaps within the system of the BAMF, as a German citizen is able to pretend being someone else and the BAMF not noticing it. Hence, the BAMF has been heavily criticized within the media (SPIEGEL, 17th of May 2017). Additionally, many asylum application need to be reviewed. The negative media attention as well as the process of reviewing
A list of contacted potential interview partners is listed in the appendices. 1
many applications presumably have led to the fact that the BAMF was not willing to conduct an interview referring to the thesis´ topic. Due to the lack of conducted semi-structured interviews this thesis now focuses more intensively on document analysis. Also, not being able to conduct as many interviews as planned leads to the fact that the thesis´ analysis of the research findings and results is a more speculative interpretation than originally hoped for. This can be seen as a limitation to this research project.
Analysis
Introduction
This chapter will outline the thesis´ findings and analyze them. Firstly, the IOM data will be highlighted in order to shed light upon the number of migrants arriving in Europe during the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. The IOM´s story of the crises will be demonstrated by presenting graphs and a timeline of important events from January 2015 onwards. The intention behind this project was to achieve a similar empirical timeline of numbers of migrants arriving in Europe represented by the CDU. The purpose of presenting the CDU representation of the numbers is to compare the CDU´s representation of the crisis to the IOM´s representation of this particular crisis. However, within the process of collecting findings on the CDU´s representation of the numbers, it became rapidly clear that the CDU´s representation of numbers of migrants arriving in Europe is not possible on the same level as it is for the IOM´s representation of these numbers. The CDU´s representation of the crisis focuses more on a national level than on a European level. Furthermore, the CDU´s perception of these numbers are expressed by demonstrating decreases and increases of numbers rather than stating concrete numbers. Hence, within this research project the BAMF data has been assessed in more detail in order to analyze the numbers of migrants applying for asylum in the EU and in Germany. By closely examining the BAMF data it is then possible to compare the IOM´s data to the BAMF findings on an empirical level even though these two institutions have different focuses and measure different aspects associated with migration, as the IOM focuses on mixed migration flows and the BAMF highlights asylum applications. Nevertheless, the IOM and the BAMF data offer an insight into the perception of numbers during the so-called ongoing refugee crisis. Furthermore, the CDU´s findings will be taken into consideration in order to answer the question on how the representation of the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe correlate with the political representation of these numbers.
The IOM´s empirical story of the so-called ongoing refugee crisis
The IOM measures migration flows. During the so-called ongoing refugee crisis the IOM measures the total number of migrants and refugees to certain European member states such as Greece and Italy. Furthermore, the IOM publishes numbers and statistics of stranded migrants and refugees, which can be considered a form of smuggling. The IOM does not use the term unauthorized
migration flows, however, available data on the IOM website does cover aspects that are associated with unauthorized migration such as undocumented migration, irregular migration and smuggling. In the following, the IOM data on migration flows referring to the so-called ongoing refugee crisis will be demonstrated, as it is considered the ´best estimation´ within this thesis due to its detailed presentation of the number of migrants arriving in Europe. The IOM´s statistical data does offer an insight into unauthorized migration flows. The Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), used and implemented by the IOM, monitors and tracks further migration flows and ´analyses human mobility in different displacement contexts´ (IOM, 2017).
´In the past year, the report, "Compilation of available data and information on mixed migration flows in the Mediterranean and beyond" has evolved into a valuable resource for data and analysis on mixed migration flows to Europe. Data from fifteen countries in the Mediterranean and beyond
is consolidated, updated and analysed into a comprehensive package of the highest standard of reporting on migration.´ (IOM, 2017)
In 2015 the DTM formed a special Flow Monitoring system to collect further information on migration populations traveling to the Mediterranean from the Western Balkans and taking the Northern route to Europe. The DTM´s analysis is available to the public sphere via their website . 2
´The Flow Monitoring System includes this weekly flows compilation, which provides an overview of migration flows into countries of first arrival and other countries along the route in Europe, and analysis of trends across the affected region. The data on registered arrivals is collated by IOM through consultations with ministries of interior, coast guards, police forces, and other relevant national authorities´ (IOM, 2017). The available data is collected by IOM field staff in various countries. Countries that are important to this research project are Greece and Italy, as these EU member state countries received and are still receiving the most first arrivals of migrants. The IOM in cooperation with the DTM then highlights the amount of relocations of disorganized and irregular migration to EU member states. It shows the number of migrants relocated to Germany, for example.
link to website: http://iom.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapAndAppGallery/index.html? 2
