Building recommendations for the British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program's outreach and promotion strategy

Building Recommendations for the British Columbia

Provincial Nominee Program’s Outreach and Promotion

Strategy

Lindsay Bisschop, MPA candidate School of Public Administration University of Victoria

July 12, 2013

Client: Erin Seeley, Director of Program Management and Planning,

Economic Immigration Programs Branch, Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training, Province of British Columbia

Supervisor: Dr. Lynne Siemens, Assistant Professor

School of Public Administration, University of Victoria

Second Reader: Dr. Kim Speers, Assistant Professor

School of Public Administration, University of Victoria

Chair: Dr. Lynda Gagne, Assistant Professor

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Thank you to Dr. Lynne Siemens for supervising this project and providing thoughtful guidance throughout the process.

I am grateful to the British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program for their willingness to trust me with this project. Thank you specifically to Erin Seeley, Aireen Luney and Salima Jethani for their support in the preparation of materials and project methodology as well as helpful feedback on ideas, concepts and project direction.

Finally, thank you to my family and friends for your encouragement and support over the course of the masters program. A special thanks to my dad for instilling in me a love for history and teaching me to listen to the past and use it to inform the present.

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With aging demographic trends and economic growth often dependent on competitive advantages in human capital, economic immigration programs are increasingly attractive to countries competing for skilled labour. However, the challenge remains targeting immigration flow to the specific occupations and regions where workers are most needed. As an economic immigration program, the British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program (BC PNP) is expected to play an important role in the attraction and retention of international migrants to fill provincial labour market needs. Labour market needs are forecasted to be the most acute in the Northeast and Northwest Development Regions.

Using a triangulation approach to ground truth labour market forecasting with consultation, this project analyzed the labour market needs of the Northeast and the Northwest and consolidates a list of priority occupations in the largest regional employment groups. Furthermore, using a literature review of research related to immigrant regionalization and regional economic

development strategies in Canada and other immigrant-receiving countries such as New Zealand and Australia, the project recommends developing a three-year domestic and international outreach and promotion strategy to be adjusted over time in order to accommodate the dynamics of the immigration and economic development policy landscape. This outreach and promotion strategy is intended to complement the building of domestic skills through the Regional Workforce Tables and other initiatives, and strategically position Northern BC to source the international talent and expertise needed to fill labour market gaps.

In addition, with differing needs and priorities among regions and industries, the project

recommends the BC PNP segment the outreach and promotion strategy by region and industry in order to target and customize domestic and international activities. An ongoing need exists to improve regional awareness and build human resource and recruiting capacity especially among regional small to medium-size enterprise (SME) employers. The development of technology tools and collaborative partnerships with regional economic development and community

stakeholders is recommended to further the BC PNP’s goal of responding to labour market needs and supporting priority sectors. While immigration cannot be a quick fix for the economic development or human capital needs of the Northeast and the Northwest, it can through

collaborative approaches continue to play a role in helping alleviate pressures on regional labour markets.

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Acknowledgements ... i

Executive Summary ... ii

Table of Contents ... iii

List of Figures/Tables ... v 1.0 Introduction ... 1 1.1 Research Problem ... 1 1.2 Research Question ... 2 1.3 Project Client ... 2 1.4 Project Scope ... 3 2.0 Background ... 4 2.1 Introduction ... 4

2.2 Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) ... 4

2.2 The BC Provincial Nominee Program ... 5

2.2 Outreach and Promotion... 7

2.4 Northeast and Northwest Development Regions ... 8

2.4 Conclusion ... 9

3.0 Conceptual Framework & Methodology ... 10

3.1 Introduction ... 10

3.2 Literature review ... 11

3.3 Labour market information ... 11

3.4 Stakeholder consultation... 12

3.5 Comparative analysis ... 13

3.6 Recommendations ... 14

3.7 Limitations and Constraints ... 15

3.8 Conclusion ... 15

4.0 Literature Review... 16

4.1 The BC Provincial Nominee Program ... 16

4.2 Regionalization of Immigrants ... 19

4.3 Immigration and the Northern BC Labour Market ... 21

4.4 Regional Attraction and Retention strategies ... 25

4.6 Conclusion ... 29

5.0 Comparative Analysis ... 30

5.1 High Level Labour Market Trends... 30

5.2 Forecasted Occupational Supply and Demand... 34

5.3 Population Characteristics and Migration Patterns ... 40

5.4 Domestic capacity and Regional Training ... 45

5.5 Employer Capacity, Strategies and Interest in Recruiting Internationally ... 47

6.0 Discussion & Implications ... 53

7.0 Recommendations for PNP outreach and promotions ... 58

7.1 High Level Recommendations ... 58

7.2 International Promotion... 58

7.3 Domestic Outreach ... 59

7.4 Program Development & Partnerships ... 60

8.0 Conclusion ... 62

References ... 63

Appendices ... 72

Appendix A: BC PNP Consultation Session Report ... 72

Appendix B: NE & NW Regional Workforce Table Under Pressure Occupations ... 85

Appendix C: National Occupational Classification (NOC) Matrix (2011)... 87

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Figure 1: Map of British Columbia’s Development Regions ... 1

Figure 2: Overview of Key BC PNP Milestones ... 6

Figure 3: Northeast Development Region ... 8

Figure 4: North Coast Development Region ... 8

Figure 5: Nechako Development region ... 9

Figure 6: Conceptual Framework ... 10

Figure 7: How the BC Labour Market Scenario Model works ... 11

Figure 8: Key NOC Occupational Groups in NE & NW ... 13

Figure 10: Northeast Supply/Demand gap 2011-2020 (NE RWT, 2013) ... 30

Figure 9: Northwest Supply/Demand Gap 2010-2020 (NW RWT, 2013) ... 30

Figure 11: The BC PNP’s Positioning in the Wider Provincial Human Capital Strategy ... 72

Figure 12: Northwest 2010-2015 Occupational Forecasts Used In PNP Stakeholder Engagement ... 83

Figure 13: Northeast 2010-2013 Occupational Forecast Used In PNP Stakeholder Engagement ... 84

Table 1: Northeast and Northwest Employment by Industries ... 32

Table 2: Employment By Development Region and National Occupational Classification (NOC) group 33 Table 3: BC PNP Priority Occupations By Major NOC Group and Rank ... 35

Table 4: NOC 7 Training Gaps Identified by the Regional Workforce Tables ... 38

Table 5: NOC 8 & 9 Training Gaps identified By the Regional Workforce Tables ... 39

Table 6: Labour Force Activity Comparing BC to the Northeast and Northwest - Annual Averages ... 41

Table 7: International, Interprovincial and Intraprovincial Migration to Northern BC ... 42

Table 8: BC PNP Applications (2008 - 2012) For the Northeast and Northwest Regions ... 42

Table 9: Distribution of TFWs across BC regions (2008-2011) ... 43

Table 10: BC PNP Nominations (2008-2012) - Northeast & Northwest Regions By NOC Grouping ... 43

Table 11: Nominees' Country of Citizenship & Percentage of PNP applicants with Relatives in Canada . 44 Table 12: Full Time equivalents (FTES) for PNP Nominating Employers ... 47

ACRONYMS

CIC Citizenship and Immigration Canada CMA Census Metropolitan Area

EIPB Economic Immigration Programs Branch LMI Labour Market Information

NE Northeast Development Region

NW Nechacko and North Coast Development Regions (also referred to as the Northwest) PNP Provincial Nominee Program

RWT Regional Workforce Table

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Economic immigration is a broad term used to describe immigration categories where selection criteria align with human capital or labour market needs (O’Shea, 2009, p.4). With aging demographics in most OECD countries and economic growth often dependent on competitive advantage in human capital, economic immigration programs are increasing attractive to

countries competing for skilled labour (OECD, 2012, Shachar, 2006; Suter & Jandl, 2008). Yet, the challenge remains targeting immigration flow to the specific occupations and regions where workers are most needed.

The British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program (BC PNP), administered by the Economic Immigration Programs Branch (EIPB) within the Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training (JTST), is a policy based economic immigration program which gives the Province the authority to nominate individuals for accelerated permanent residence based on provincial economic needs (Grant Thornton, 2011, p.2). Provincial economic needs are defined by the government and primarily focus on developing the economy and labour market in the eight regions of BC displayed in Figure 1. The BC Jobs Plan describes the priority sectors—agrifoods, forestry, mining, natural gas, international education, technology, tourism and transportation—as well provincial economic goals and implementation strategies (British Columbia [BC], 2012, p.7-11). Created as a partnership with Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC), the BC PNP is “a mechanism to increase the benefits of immigration to British Columbia, based on economic priorities and labour market conditions” (CIC, 2010, 1.2.1). Within the wider purview of Canadian immigration policy, the PNP nominates workers and entrepreneurs for permanent residence primarily to meet short

to medium term labour market needs.

1.1 RESEARCH PROBLEM

BC’s Labour Market Scenario Model forecasts tightening provincial labour market

conditions from 2010 to 2020 with more acute labour shortages expected at a regional level in the Northeast and North Coast and Nechako— hereafter referred to as the Northwest— development regions (BC JTST, 2011e, p.2-4). The outlook predicts a decline in new entrants to the labour market resulting in demand for labour outgrowing supply. With a gap anticipated, interprovincial and international migration is expected to fill approximately a

third of job openings from 2010 to 2020 (BC JTST, 2011e, p.4). As the primary provincial FIGURE 1: MAP OF BRITISH COLUMBIA’S DEVELOPMENT REGIONS

economic immigration tool, the PNP is expected to play an important role in the attraction and retention of international migrants to fill provincial labour market needs (BC JTST, 2013, p.22).

1.2 RESEARCH QUESTION

The BC Labour Market Outlook acknowledges that forecasts may not capture unique conditions and changes over time within particular occupations and regions (BC JTST, 2011e, p.2).

Consequently, to further investigate the labour market needs within the Northeast and Northwest regions and understand how these needs align with the BC PNP’s outreach and promotion strategy, the research question for this project is:

How do the needs of the labour market in the Northeast and Northwest development regions inform the BC PNP’s domestic and international outreach and promotion strategy?

To answer the research question, the project builds a conceptual framework of how to understand the interaction between labour market information and consultation, and then uses comparative analysis to determine how the evidence supports recommendations for domestic and

international outreach and promotion activities. Using a broad definition of “labour market needs,” the project analyzes the following areas:

 Labour market trends in the large employment sectors for the Northeast and Northwest;

 Population characteristics including migration patterns;

 Forecasted occupational supply and demand including anticipated timeframes;

 Current domestic capacity and regional training plans; and

 Employer recruitment strategies, capacity and interest in international labour sources.

1.3 PROJECT CLIENT

The client for this project is the BC PNP’s Program Management and Planning (PMP) Unit. The project is relevant because the PMP unit was recently created to improve the program’s research, planning and outreach functions. The goal of this unit is to strategically align activities and initiatives to the BC Jobs Plan and the Ministry Service Plan. PMP goals relevant to the project are to:

 Respond to labour market needs across the province by supporting priority sectors and;

 Identify regional business opportunities and supporting regional employers with their labour market needs (BC JTST, 2012e, p.1).

Traditionally, the BC PNP conducted outreach and promotion activities based on employer and industry request or through existing relationships with the federal government and other

international partners. When the PNP was launched, the planning and execution of outreach activities were juggled by executive and program staff along with operational duties. One consequence of this tactic was the majority of outreach and promotion centered on the Lower Mainland & Southwest with a smaller number in the Thompson & Okanagan and Vancouver Island & Coast development regions (BC JTST, 2012e, p.2). Very few, however, were conducted in BC’s other regions and only within the last year has the BC PNP canvassed these regions in a more consistent and uniform manner.

1.4 PROJECT SCOPE

The focus of the project is on two development regions: the Northeast and Northwest. These regions were selected because 2010 to 2015 is a critical period for their labour markets as several large infrastructure projects are planned or under development (BC JTST, 2011e, p.8; BC JTST, 2012b). As stated above, the BC PNP has limited information about the specific labour market needs of these regions. For this reason, it recently initiated and expanded outreach in Northern BC In October 2012, two program staff visited the Northeast and Northwest regions and conducted stakeholder consultations with employers to gather information about labour market needs. The consultations focused on the following questions:

 What occupations are in greatest shortage in the community and when are these occupations required to be filled?

 What are some considerations for employers when recruiting or retaining a foreign worker?

 What tools and systems do employers utilize to recruit and retain immigrants or foreign workers and what is their experience using these tools and systems?

 What suggestions do employers have to enable to the BC PNP to better support their recruitment and retention efforts of immigrants and foreign workers? (Appendix A, BC PNP Stakeholder Engagement Report, 2012).

This project analyzes the findings of these consultations as well as other publically available labour market information sources. Choosing two regions allows the BC PNP to develop and test a model for how to link domestic labour market needs to international outreach and promotion. The eventual goal is to learn from this project and develop an evidence-based model to use in all BC regions.

In addition, in January 2012 the Labour Market & Immigration Division, EIPB’s sister branch, spearheaded the Regional Workforce Tables (RWT) in the Northwest, Northeast and Kootenay regions to bring together educators, industry, employers, local chambers of commerce, First Nations and other stakeholders to plan how best to align training and educational programs to meet regional labour market needs. The primary deliverable for each RWT is a detailed Regional Skills Training Plan which aligns training with local employment opportunities (BC JTST, 2012c, p.27). While the goals of the RWT are primarily training and education needs, the Training Plans provide valuable information on the regional labour market and efforts to build domestic human resource capacity. This project evaluates the work of the RWT to ensure the BC PNP’s domestic and international outreach and promotion strategy compliments local activities. With this introduction in mind, the next section provides a brief definition and background to PNPs in Canada and the BC PNP specifically. Included is also a definition of outreach and promotion within the immigration context as well as some relevant background on the Northeast and Northwest development regions.

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2.1 INTRODUCTION

This section provides an overview of PNPs within the context of Canada’s immigration system, the evolution of the BC PNP, a definition of immigration outreach and promotion activities as well as a broad backgrounder on the Northeast and Northwest development regions. This section is intended to provide the reader with the necessary legislative context, definitions and

background to understand the research framework.

2.2 PROVINCIAL NOMINEE PROGRAMS (PNPS)

Immigration is a shared federal and provincial jurisdiction or concurrent power under Section 95 of the Canadian Constitution Act, 1867. Yet, the role of selecting immigrants was traditionally the sole responsibility of the federal, not provincial/territorial, government (Hiebert, 2006, p.6). Section 8(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) allows the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration to enter into immigration agreements with provincial and territorial governments in effect providing the legal authority for a separate provincial nominee

immigration class (CIC, 2011a, p.1). Shared jurisdiction creates a dynamic policy landscape and makes it important for policy makers to monitor interactions and the interplay between

international, inter-state and inter-governmental actors (Baglay, 2012, p.138).

Under immigration agreements, the provincial nominee class is jointly administered by both the federal and provincial or territorial governments. Each province or territory has the authority to set its own selection criteria which is expected to align with the economic priorities and labour market conditions specific to the province in order to increase the regional benefits of

immigration (CIC, 2010, 1.2.1). Provinces and territories can identify economic immigrants for nomination and the federal government retains the security, criminal record and medical checks related to finalizing permanent residence. Prospective immigrants apply directly to the PNP and are assessed based on provincial selection criteria. If nominated, they submit a separate

application for permanent residence to CIC. PNPs are designed in effect to focus on short to medium term labour market shortages. Federal-provincial agreements provide a commitment by CIC to process all provincial nominee applications as expeditiously as possible (Office of the Auditor General [OAG], 2009, Section 2.79). Beside Quebec’s program, where the province has exclusive authority to set targets and select immigrants, the PNP is a two-step economic

immigration process (OAG, Section 2.8; Seidle, 2010).

The two-step immigration process focuses on provincial economic needs. PNP criteria thus include the intent to reside in the nominating province (CIC, 2011a, p.31). Nevertheless, when an immigrant obtains permanent resident status, he or she has the same mobility rights under

Section 6 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Hence, in order for a province to benefit from immigration it must remain competitive with other jurisdictions and ensure the selected nominee is a good fit for the labour market and community. Due to their different design, PNPs allow for regional flexibility and expand eligibility to occupational groups not favored by the Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) program such as trades and lower skilled occupations (Bagley, p.138; Kustec, 2012, p.14; O’Shea, p.18). Differing from other immigration categories, PNPs also do

not currently have mandatory language testing except for lower skilled occupations (CIC, 2011a, p.32).

Several factors led to the development of PNPs across Canada including demographic and labour market pressures as well as advocacy by provincial governments for a mechanism to influence immigration. Federalism, the division of powers, and regional diversity are major factors influencing Canada’s immigration policy landscape (Baglay, p.122). Over the past two decades immigration approaches shifted from centralized nation-building systems to decentralized models targeting economic priorities such as competitiveness and labour market attachment (Bagley, p.134). Immigration became a tool to balance demographic decline, increase population, fill labour market needs and attract investment (Kukushkin & Watt, 2009, p.3). Provinces and territories were recognized as best positioned to determine economic needs due to their closer proximity and sensitivity to local labour market needs (Kustec, p.8, 13; Walton-Roberts, 2004, p.25). It is important to note that federal immigration policy is currently changing to increase flexibility and mirror Australia and New Zealand’s immigration systems (CIC, 2012b). While these changes are not yet fully implemented and beyond the scope of this project, it is important to mention because the PNP’s outreach and promotion will inevitably be impacted by these changes due to the dynamic immigration policy environment.

The importance of the PNP, as a tool for BC to fill labour market shortages grew in part because of a substantial decrease in permanent immigrants arriving through the FSW program (Grant Thornton, p.13; Lowe, 2010, p.26). With a reduced number of FSW immigrants coming to BC, the PNP was viewed as a method to increasing the number of economic immigrants arriving in the province. To provide perspective on the size and scope of PNPs compared to other

immigration categories, in 2011 provincial nominees accounted for 24.6 percent of economic immigrants and 15.4 percent of all immigration classes (CIC, 2012a). BC’s total during the same time period was 4,306 permanent residents or 19.7 percent of all economic immigrants and 12.4 percent of all immigration classes. Thus, in relative terms, the PNP has a small share of total immigrants though the Province would like to increase its quota. The next section will go into more details about the BC PNP’s legislative context and program design.

2.2 THE BC PROVINCIAL NOMINEE PROGRAM

BC’s first bilateral immigration agreement, the Canada-British Columbia Cooperation on Immigration, was signed in 1998 and primarily dealt with the devolution of responsibility, finances and management of settlement services for immigrants related to integration, English-language training and accessing services (CIC, 2011a; Klassen & Wood, p.259; WelcomeBC, 2013a). In 2001, BC followed Manitoba’s lead and used this existing bilateral framework to develop the second PNP in Canada – a worker immigration program geared to attracting health care professionals such as physicians and nurses (Canadian Press, 2000). This became the foundation for the current Worker or Strategic Occupations component which is used to attract and retain skilled immigrants to fill labour market needs. This stream remained small until 2004 when the agreement was amended and extended for a 5-year term with the Canada-British Columbia Immigration Agreement (CIC, 2010). As outlined in the Figure 2 timeline of key BC PNP milestones, at the same time as the agreement was extended the Province combined the separate Worker and Business Immigration components into a single economic immigration program. Within Annex B of the Agreement, the roles and responsibilities of the federal and

1998: Signing of the Canada-British Columbia Cooperation on Immigration March 2001: Strategic Occupations program launched Sept 2002: Business Immigration program launched Dec 2002: Internationa l Graduate Stream introduced April 2004: Renewal of the Canada-British Columbia Co-Operation on Immigration. PNP worker and business programs are combined. Feb 2008: Entry-Level and Semi Skilled (ELSS) Pilot introduced April 2010: Signing of the Canada-British Columbia Immigration Agreement March 2011: BC PNP Program Evaluation Sept 2011: CIC Evaluation of PNPs 2011: Creation of the PMP Unit

provincial governments are outlined under the legal framework of IRPA (CIC, 2010). Each year the federal government, in consultation with the provinces and territories, allocates a specific quota of nominations to each province. BC received 3,500 nominations in 2012 and negotiated and an increase to its nominations allocation to 3,800 in 2013 (BC JTST, 2012a, p.26). With continued strong employer demand, the provincial government is working with the federal government increase the allocation for 2014.

The BC PNP assesses whether a worker or business immigrant adds “significant benefit to the economic development” of the province and has “a strong likelihood of becoming economic established” (CIC, 2010, 3.1). Basically, nominees are selected because of their contribution to the economy and ability to establish economically in the province. The BC PNP website specifies that provincial nominees may be selected to:

 meet critical skill shortages;

 create or maintaining employment;

 transfer skills and knowledge to Canadians;

 accelerate the adoption of new technologies;

 develop new products, technologies, services or markets; and

 establish new or enhance existing businesses in BC (WelcomeBC, 2012).

The program is divided into two main components: Strategic Occupations for foreign workers and Business Immigration for investment-ready entrepreneurs. The worker stream is employer-driven in that skilled or experienced workers and international students generally require a job offer from an eligible BC employer to be eligible for nomination (BC JTST, 2012a, p.23). The International post-graduates pilot project, open to master’s and doctorate graduates from BC post-secondary institutions in the natural, applied and health sciences, is the only category that does not require a job offer. In addition, BC will not nominate workers if their employment affects the settlement of a labour dispute or adversely affects employment or training

opportunities for domestic workers (CIC, 2010, Section 3.9). Wages offered must be comparable to salaries offered to domestic workers and allow the immigrants to support themselves as well as any eligible dependants such as spouses or children. Essentially, the PNP recognizes the FIGURE 2: OVERVIEW OF KEY BC PNP MILESTONES

important contribution immigrants make to provincial economic development and thus facilitates and accelerates permanent immigration for individuals who fit provincial labour market needs.

2.2 OUTREACH AND PROMOTION

The goal of aligning immigration with BC’s economic development needs is what drives the PNP’s outreach and promotion. The goal of outreach is raising awareness of the PNP in target markets and to potential beneficiaries both domestically and internationally. The key element is thus increasing knowledge, explaining program requirements and outlining how the process works for domestic stakeholders such as employers and economic development officers, and potential immigrants within or outside of the province. This project defines outreach and

promotion activities as any activity undertaken by government, economic development agencies, employers or other organizations at the local, regional or national level to recruit and retain immigrant workers, entrepreneurs and investors. With over 97 percent of BC PNP nominations in the worker stream, the focus of the project is limited on outreach and promotion for workers though a summary discussion of business immigration may be mentioned where relevant. Ultimately, the concept of immigration outreach and promotion is highly connected with talent management, a strategic human resource philosophy and practice that results in integrated recruitment, human capital development and retention strategies (Hugh & Rog, 2006, p.743). Section 6 of the Canada-British Columbia Immigration Agreement describes immigration outreach and promotion as a shared responsibility between the two jurisdictions. Canada is responsible for the national coordination of activities while BC pursues its own specific demographic, social and economic objectives (CIC, 2010, Section 6.0). One example of

coordinated recruitment and promotion activities is with francophone immigration. Destination Canada, held annually in Paris, includes most provinces and territories as well as other Canadian overseas visa offices. The objective of this immigration and employment fair is to share

information about Canada’s regions to potential French-speaking immigrants. Employers also attend and those who cannot participate in person will send along job profiles for potential applicants (CIC, 2011b). Provincial delegations include PNP staff, municipal government, employers and employer representatives. Other active recruitment initiatives include trade fairs, targeted missions, print and web promotional material, and consultation with regional and community representatives (CIC, 2010, Section 6.1.3). An example of a targeted PNP

international outreach event was the March 2012 overseas recruitment mission to Ireland which focused on skilled trades and was a partnership with the BC Construction Association (BCCA) (Gilbert, 2012). Other federal outreach and promotional activities in the Agreement include identifying prospective immigrants and temporary residents to help BC meets its labour market strategy, displaying provincial promotional materials at Canadian missions abroad, participating in or working with provincially initiated recruitment missions, sharing labour market and

demographic information, and communicating externally about BC specific needs and opportunities (CIC, 2010, Section 6.1.4). In short, the legislative framework outlines the

responsibility and authority of the two governments for immigration outreach and promotion and gives the BC PNP the role of targeting activities to its regional labour market needs.

2.4 NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST DEVELOPMENT REGIONS

In order to define regional labour markets, BC primarily uses 8 development regions that are

aggregations of regional districts (BC Stats, 2011a, 2011b). The boundaries are essentially static following established geographic regions and natural physical borders. This project focuses on the two largest and northern most regions: the Northeast and Northwest. While these regions are sparsely populated and make up only 4 percent of the provincial population, they comprise up over 55 percent of BC’s landmass and 71 percent of its export wealth (BC Stats, 2011d, 2011e, 2011f; Halseth, Manson & Markey, 2007, p.62).

The Northeast development region

shares a border with Alberta and the Yukon. The Northeast is made up of two regional

districts: the Northern Rockies and Peace River. The region’s total population is approximately 64,000 people equating to 1.6 percent of the provincial population (BC STATS, 2011b, p.2). The

population is young as youth in the Northeast make up 1.9 percent of BC’s total. Yet, the region is sparsely populated and contains 21.9 percent of the

province’s landmass (BC Stats, 2011b). There are 2 communities, Fort St. John and Dawson Creek, with over 10,000 people. A third of the population lives outside incorporated communities

(Northeast Regional Workforce Table [NE RWT], 2012, p.1). Resource industries such as natural gas production, coal mining, hydro-electric and wind power generation, farming and eco-tourism are the economic drivers of the Northeast region (Institute of Chartered Accountants of British Columbia [ICABC], 2012). The Northwest region is an amalgamation of two sparsely populated regions: the North Coast & Nechako. The North Coast includes the northern coastal areas and is made up of two regional districts: the Kitimat-Stikine & Skeena-Queen Charlotte. The Nechako region

FIGURE 3: NORTHEAST DEVELOPMENT REGION

stretches through the central and far northwestern area of the province and is made up of two regional districts: the Bulkley-Nechako and Stikine. There are 2 communities, Prince Rupert and Terrace, with over 10,000 people. The total population in the Northwest region is approximately 57,600 equating to only 1.4 percent of the provincial total (BC Stats, 2011a, p.2). While sparsely populated, the Northwest region makes up 34.4 percent of BC’s landmass (BC Stats, 2011e, p.1; 2011f, p.1). Economic drivers in this region are hydroelectricity and wind power generation, forestry, mining, natural gas, transportation, agriculture and eco-tourism (ICABC, 2012).

2.4 CONCLUSION

The BC PNP is part of a concurrent area of federal-provincial jurisdiction and thus within a dynamic policy environment. Using federal-provincial agreements, the provincial nominee class provides the province with the authority to determine its own selection criteria and program design. Outreach and promotion activities, an area of cooperation between the federal and provincial governments, are a means to linking economic development and immigration goals. For the province one way to divide up economic development goals is to use development regions. As aggregates of regional districts, they follow natural boundaries. The Northeast and Northwest development regions are large and sparsely populated, but rich as economic drivers for the provincial economy. The next section builds upon these definitions by describing the project’s conceptual framework and the methodology used to answer the research question.

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3.1 INTRODUCTION

The conceptual framework depicts the interaction between the sources of labour market information and the analysis used to develop recommendations for the BC PNP’s outreach and promotion strategy. The framework is based on the belief that research and analysis of labour

market needs can improve the effectiveness of and better align outreach and promotion activities to regional needs. Outreach and promotion activities in turn directly or indirectly influence the migration and settlement decisions of potential immigrants. The findings of the BC PNP Evaluation lend support to this assumption as 58 percent of nominees stated the program influenced their decision to live and work in BC (Grant Thornton, p.25). To build

recommendations for the outreach and promotion strategy, relevant research and labour market information (LMI) is consolidated and summarized. Next, this evidence is compared with

Findings and Recommendations

•Map regional occupational priorities by 4-digit NOC

•Prioritize occupations into immediate, medium term and emerging categories

•Recommend specific actions/activities for BC PNP Outreach and Promotions Strategy

Comparative Analysis •Regional specificities •Industry/occupational trends •Employment structure or employer capacity •Social or local culture

factors Labour Market Information •Occupational Supply/Demand •Population (-/+) & Migration Patterns •Time frame •Domestic Training Stakeholder Consultation •Employers •Associations •Community Stakeholders

information obtained through consultation. Afterwards, labour market needs are mapped based on occupational codes and level of volume, growth and criticality. The research outcome, recommendations for the PNP’s outreach and promotion strategy, are thus built from comparative analysis and a literature review. In this way, the project follows an inductive approach of inferring from the available LMI the needs of the Northeast and Northwest development regions and using these findings to build recommendations for outreach and promotion.

3.2 LITERATURE REVIEW

Understanding this conceptual framework exists within a dynamic economic and policy environment, the project starts with a review of relevant literature. Using key words to search online academic journals, the Metropolis Project’s online database and related publically available research, the literature review provides a background on research related to the BC PNP and immigrant regionalization policies. There is also a survey of immigration research related to Northern BC including economic development in the Northeast and Northwest. Finally, the literature review closes with an overview of outreach and promotion strategies in Canada and other immigrant-receiving countries such as New Zealand and Australia.

3.3 LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION

To consolidate available labour market information (LMI), the project incorporates information from several sources with various methodologies. The primary sources of LMI for the Northeast and Northwest regions are the BC Stats regional employment projections and the BC Labour Market Scenario Model (BCLMSM) (BC Stats, 2011a, 2011b). BCLMSM is a complex

modeling system using regional macroeconomic and occupational models. It is validated through input from industry, business and professional groups. However, forecasts may not capture unique conditions and changes over time within particular occupations and regions. While this project recognizes these methodological limits to labour market forecasting, it accepts the validity of the BCLMSM because it is carried out by BC Stats, the provincial statistical agency, and was reviewed by the Conference Board of Canada.

Recognizing industry associations and economic groups conduct their own and often different industry-specific labour forecasts, the project incorporates these into the conceptual framework with equal weight to the BCLMSM. The industry reports included in this project are from Go2, HealthMatch BC, Institute of Chartered Accountants of British Columbia, Small Business BC, the BC Construction Association, the BC Mining Association, the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), the Aerospace Association of BC, BC Stats’ Input Indicators of the BC High Technology Sector, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of BC, the Canadian Agriculture Human Resource Council and the Association of BC Forestry Professionals. While some of these reports may not be specific to the Northeast and Northwest regions, the key industries in these regions such as natural gas, mining, industrial construction, clean energy and agriculture are relevant as they relate to large percentages of total regional employment. Thus, the project examines industry forecasts, trends and strategies from the key regional employment sectors. Understanding the changing dynamics of domestic labour supply such as building training capacity and regional migration is also important. The Northeast and Northwest RWTs survey domestic capacity, regional training institutions and develop training plans. BC Stats

intraprovincial, interprovincial and international migration statistics provide an overview of regional in- and outmigration. Included in this section are labour force participation rates, unemployment and employment rates, issuances of positive Human Resource and Skills

Development Canada (HRSDC) Labour Market Opinions (LMOs), CIC work permit issuances, and BC PNP nominations. The project includes LMO and work permit issuance as these indicate employer use of temporary foreign workers to fill labour market shortages when domestic supply is not available. These indicators are counted within the consolidated LMI, but weighed with less importance as they are complicated to interpret because foreign worker demand may be based on truly temporary needs and the genuineness of domestic recruitment efforts is often unclear (Baxter, 2010; Gross, 2011; Nakache & Kinoshita, 2010; Goldring & Landolt, 2012). To overcome differences in methodology, the conceptual framework uses a triangulation approach to different types of data. The triangulation approach allows the project to incorporate multiple sources with different methodologies and consolidate the findings to bring the Northeast and Northwest’s labour market needs into focus (Heath, 2001, p.15901). Using sources with different methodologies is also intended to improve the depth and scope of understanding as it assumes a variety of perspectives will provide a more comprehensive final product. Choosing this methodology also accommodates and accounts for the uncoordinated nature of Canadian LMI (Sharpe & Qiao, 2006, p.69). In short, LMI is consolidated from various sources to provide the fullest picture of labour market needs.

3.4 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION

After consolidating the LMI, the next aspect of the project is incorporating the consultation information. The BCLMSM recognizes how within particular occupations and regions unique conditions may not be captured and conditions may change over time. An important determining factor of regional differential growth is the nature and size of major projects coming on-stream over time. Yet forecasting major project employment can be difficult because they are subject to market volatility and often long approval processes. Hence, this project uses consultation or information “closest to the ground” to validate forecasts. The conceptual framework assume local actors are best positioned to understand local labour market needs and should participate in

providing information and developing solutions for their communities (Halseth, Markey, Reimer & Manson, 2010, p.15).

In October 2012, the PNP conducted consultation sessions with employers and stakeholders from the communities of Fort St. John, Dawson Creek, Chetwynd, Terrace, Prince George, Kitimat and Prince Rupert. In total 46 employers attended the Northeast sessions and 21 attended the Northwest sessions. The BC PNP completed 2 visits with stakeholders in the Northwest to improve the representativeness of the feedback given that a smaller number of employers

attended the consultations. The intention of these consultations was two-fold: first, to gain direct insight from key stakeholders with regards to their labour market needs and barriers; second, to better support these communities in BC PNP program design and activities (Appendix A, BC PNP Consultation Session Report). The consultation sessions started with the facilitator providing a forecasted list of in demand occupations based on the BCLMSM and asking

stakeholders to validate the list based on their experience. Throughout the consultation feedback was coded by occupation, recorded without personal identifiers, and grouped by region and community. The findings are summarized in the BC PNP Consultation Session Report found in Appendix A. This project conducts secondary analysis by using the consultation report to validate other available LMI. In addition, the Immigrant Employment Council of BC (IECBC) also conducted consultations in 2012 with communities across BC and published a consultation report. While the primary consultation tool is the BC PNP’s own consultation, the IECBC report is also used to obtain general feedback from regional employers and stakeholders on what economic immigration programs, strategies and processes work, which do not and should be improved, and suggestions on how to improve these tools. Thus, within the conceptual framework, consultation plays a validation role.

3.5 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

The analysis section breaks down the LMI and consultation findings into categories. First, the priority occupations for the Northeast and Northwest regions are mapped and findings from different occupational groups are compared. The National Occupational Classification (NOC) system is the authoritative reference guide on occupational

information in Canada (Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, 2012). Occupations are coded with 4-digit codes and categorized based on major

occupational groups. In 2011 the NOC structure and coding was updated. This project thus converts all 2006 NOCs into the 2011 coding system. With limited time and resources for outreach and promotion, the BC PNP’s goal is to target the five key regional employment groups listed in

NOC Occupational Groups by Skill Type

1 - Business, finance and administration occupations

2 - Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

3 - Health occupations

6 - Sales and service occupations

7 - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

8 & 9 - Natural resources, agriculture and related production, manufacturing and utilities

Figure 8. Thus, the project focuses on the NOC occupational groups that pertain to the largest percentages of regional employment and employment growth (See Appendix A, BC PNP Consultation Session Report, p.83-84 for BC Stats figures on NE and NW employment). It then quantifies the estimated volume of shortfall between labour market supply and demand.

Management occupations are grouped into the relevant sub-categories and not broken out as a separate Skill Type as in the NOC. Wherever possible, 4-digit NOC codes are used as this provides the highest level of detail for planning and is compatible with the BC PNP database in order to evaluate metrics. In addition, the priority occupations map categorizes each occupation on a range of Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3 based on the volume of job openings, annual

forecasted growth and anticipated time frame for when the occupations are most needed to help the BC PNP prioritizes outreach and promotion activities overtime.

The next part of the analysis evaluates the findings to assess differences and similarities between the Northeast and Northwest regions. This section uses a wider definition of labour market needs because it recognizes that the availability of human capital is influenced by various factors such as employer recruitment and retention strategies, firm size and resources, community amenities and welcome to newcomers, and regional readiness for participating in two-way settlement and integration of immigrants. For example, Nolin, McCallum, and Zehtab-Martin (2009) show that the size and health of the labour market is an important factor for the attraction and retention of interprovincial and international migrants. In addition, Bourgeois (2006) states that employment needs, recruitment strategies and employer capacity to use immigration programs to fill labour shortages differs especially when comparing large to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are generally differentiated from large employers by the fact they have less than 50 full-time equivalent employees (BC JTST, 2011d, p.3). The analysis in this project follows this definition. Furthermore, BC’s Welcoming and Inclusive Communities and Workplaces Program also found links to successful immigrant integration from factors such as local culture, access to amenities and infrastructure and intercultural networks (Bains, Pollard, & BC Stats, 2011, pp.115-118). While some of the above mentioned factors are outside the scope of the PNP’s mandate, the project only includes a summary discussion in order to explore partnership opportunities. The objective of the analysis is recognizing that labour market needs are located relationally at a variety of levels and seeks to balance the influence of global, regional and local factors throughout the assessment of regional labour market needs (Weller, 2008, p.2206). The final section discusses the findings in lieu of their implications for BC PNP outreach and promotion. This section incorporates research from the literature review on outreach and

promotion strategies in Canada and other immigrant-receiving countries. It will also discuss BC PNP priorities and how they influence the strategy recommendations. Thus, the analysis breaks down the findings by occupation, region and implications for outreach and promotion.

3.6 RECOMMENDATIONS

The consolidation of LMI, validation through consultation, and comparative analysis leads to developing recommendations for the BC PNP’s outreach and promotion strategy. The project breaks down recommendations into 4 categories: high level strategic overview, international promotion, domestic outreach and program development and partners. The final category, program development, pertains to areas for partnership or further evaluation which could improve the effectiveness of regional outreach and promotion. In short, the conceptual

framework and methodology outlined are the means to obtaining the research findings needed to build policy recommendations.

3.7 LIMITATIONS AND CONSTRAINTS

This project is limited by the availability and timeliness of LMI, representativeness and reliability of consultation feedback, and scope and priorities of the BC PNP. As with most research, the project is constrained by the availability of accurate, timely, reliable, accessible, complete and valid data. While using a triangulation model improves the depth and scope of LMI, the project does not produce a complete picture of the Northeast and Northwest labour market needs (Heath, p.15904). Employment projections are not certain and present a picture of what could happen if certain economic assumptions remain true (BC Stats, 2011b, p.1). Ongoing analysis will be needed to augment the findings of this project.

Another limitation is that consultation data is only as good as the participants attending the session. The project is limited by the small number of participants who attended the BC PNP consultation in particular in the Northwest region. The project recognizes the need in the future to conduct further consultation in underrepresented industries and with a wider employer group. To overcome the methodological weakness, wherever possible the project uses other LMI sources to supplement regional consultation. Finally, the project’s outcome and the focus of the PNPs mandate constrain the study of labour market needs. The project prioritizes research related to outreach and promotion and the BC PNP’s current mandate. The recommendations provided are intended to be the best solution for the current circumstances such as time, place and audience.

3.8 CONCLUSION

As shown the project’s conceptual framework and methodology involve bringing together information from various sources, comparing it and developing a fuller picture of the labour market needs of the Northeast and Northwest development regions. It starts by reviewing relevant literature, consolidating the available LMI, and validating this through consultation. Next, it involves conducting comparative analysis based on occupational groups and regions, discussing the implications of the findings for the BC PNP and providing recommendations for domestic and international outreach and promotion. The next section begins the review of relevant literature related to the research topic.

4.0

L

R

The literature review provides an overview of research relevant to immigration, regional labour markets and outreach and promotion. The first section reviews studies and evaluations of the BC PNP as an immigration tool to assist employers to attract and retain workers to meet labour market needs. Relevant findings from other PNPs are included to give a wider context to the literature review. Afterwards, there is a discussion of research related to attracting and retaining immigrants in regions. The next section evaluates research on immigration to BC’s north. Finally, there is a discussion of domestic and international outreach and promotion activities related to regions and smaller communities in Canadian jurisdictions and other immigrant-receiving countries.

4.1 THE BC PROVINCIAL NOMINEE PROGRAM

Research on the BC PNP concentrates on evaluating the program’s outcomes compared to other economic immigration categories. For example, both CIC and the BC PNP completed program evaluations in 2011. These evaluations focus on nominee profiles and break down the outcomes of selected immigrants by immigration class. The PNP is often contrasted with the Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) program because it uses a different selection model. As an employer-driven and job-offer dependent stream, the BC PNP is different from the FSW program where immigrants are evaluated upon competencies such as education, work experience, language skills and adaptability (O’Shea, p.12). Researchers studying the FSW program have observed declining economic outcomes and higher unemployment rates among immigrants compared to the

Canadian born population (Reitz, 2004; Hiebert, 2006; Statistics Canada, 2007; Hawthorne, 2008; Lowe, 2010; Abbott & Beach, 2011). Wulff, Carter, Vineberg and Ward (2008) suggest the ability to match immigrant skills to the labour market is the key to an economic immigration program’s success (p.123). Consequently, labour market outcomes and selection models are an important area of study because they provide justification for particular selection models. With regards to specific labour market outcomes, research shows PNP nominees on average perform better than other economic immigrants. CIC’s (2011a) evaluation found provincial nominees had higher employment earnings compared to immigrants selected under the FSW program (p.7). PNP nominees also have higher labour market attachment and are more likely compared to other economic streams to stay in their jobs after becoming permanent residents (Kustec, p.13; CIC, 2011a, p.48). After reviewing various PNPs, Pandey and Townsend (2010) argue immigrants arriving through PNPs have higher earnings than their counterparts who arrive through federal immigration classes and stay in regions after the first two years of landing. Zhang (2012) suggests BC PNP nominees did not have the same credential recognition issues as FSW permanent residents and this improves their economic outcomes (p.29-30). One reason for the difference is employers in their decision to offer a job and support the PNP nomination will screen the foreign worker for language skills and adequate credentials. Yet, Zhang points out that employer screening may increase the potential risk of ethnic discrimination (Zhang, p.14).

Alboim & Cohl (2012) note the advantage of involving employers in immigration selection as it increases the likelihood of positive labour market attachment and immediate economic benefits. However, they point out potential conflicts of interest with the devolving of immigrant selection authority to employers as there is a disincentive to train and recruit locally (Alboim et al., p.18). Lewis (2010) also critiques Manitoba’s PNP’s program design to address ethno-cultural

inequality because it relies on employers and community stakeholders in selecting immigrants (p.242). Lowe contests the heavy emphasis in economic immigration policy on selecting the “right immigrant” rather than seeing immigration as a two-way street and evaluating institutional structures and the community context which the immigrant enters and joins (p.27). While

research points out the need to mitigate the risk of ethnic bias and inequality, it also shows more successful economic establishment and labour market outcomes among provincial nominees. Arguably, one reason for the improved outcomes of nominees is that they are typically

temporary residents or international graduates transitioning to permanent resident status. As of 2009, approximately 88 percent of BC’s PNP nominees were already in Canada on a work permit (CIC, 2011a, p.24). The average age was 35 years old (Grant Thornton, p.16). With a high percentage of nominees already in Canada, many individuals are on temporary work permits obtained from the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program which allows employers who are unable to find suitable local candidates to hire foreign workers. Others come to Canada under International Experience Canada youth exchange programs—the Student Work Abroad (SWAP), Working Holiday, Young Workers’ Exchange, and Co-op Education Programs—which allow substantial numbers of young people to work temporarily. They often fill seasonal

positions within the tourism industry such as at ski resorts and eco-tourism lodges (Joppe, p.668). Kustec confirms that participation in international youth exchange programs has

increased by 17.5 percent from 2000 to 2011 (p.21). Nevertheless, even with a large percentage of youth exchange programs, 33.2 percent of positions nominated by the BC PNP were in professional occupations (NOC A) such as nurses and engineers while 32.7 percent were in skilled and technical roles (NOC B) such as financial administrators, medical technologists and electricians (Grant Thornton, p.6). Thus, while the BC PNP is a two-step immigration process, nominees also tend to be those already in Canada on a temporary work permit.

Researchers evaluating outcomes also focus on the profile of employers who use the PNP. Some researchers, like Gross (2010, 2011), argue that the increased use of temporary foreign workers depresses wages while others are concerned about the overuse of immigration programs by employers. The BC PNP program evaluation found 70 percent of employers hire only one nominee. Some employers, primarily in health care, post-secondary education, construction, tourism, hospitality and information technology, use the BC PNP repeatedly and account for 25 percent of nominees (Grant Thornton, pp.18-19). Highest use of the program exists among tourism and hospitality employers followed by the health care and construction industries (Grant Thornton, p.18). Nevertheless, when CIC interviewed employers using the PNP, they stated they experience difficulties hiring domestically because of skills gaps, limited labour pools and rural/remote work locations (CIC, 2011a, p.35). The Conference Board of Canada also found that employers are frequently turning to a combination of PNPs and TFWPs to meet their labour market requirements as it is difficult to attract and retain workers for “certain positions due to growing skills and labour shortages, often tough and remote working conditions, and competition from other sectors” (Baxter, p.23). Three out of four employers surveyed found the BC PNP helpful to find workers for difficult to fill vacancies (Grant Thornton, p.19). They also

appreciated the client service as they value the ability to speak directly to staff during the often complex application process (BC, 2012a, p.16). However, not all employers are equally as likely to support a provincial nominee application or hire foreign workers and immigrants. The PNP and TFWP are found to be popular among large employers, but often too expensive or time

consuming for SMEs (Baxter, p.23). A potential reason for this disparity is larger firms are more likely to have formalized recruitment strategies whereas SMEs often conduct ad hoc recruitment (Hughes & Rog, p.754). Assessing the experience and education of foreign workers and then completing the immigration paperwork can be too arduous for SMEs (BC, 2012a, p.21). The Immigration Taskforce also discovered that a lack of awareness and knowledge prevents employers from using economic immigration programs (BC, 2012a, p.3). Nevertheless, among the suite of immigration options to assist with labour market shortages, the BC PNP is viewed by employers as one of the most effective tools.

Beyond labour market attachment, studies of PNP outcomes focus on regional distribution. With large concentrations of immigrants in urban centres, PNPs are intended to counteract this trend and attract immigrants to communities outside urban areas (CIC, 2011a, p.34). The Grant Thornton (2011) evaluation of the BC PNP found twenty-five percent of nominees settled outside Metro Vancouver which is higher than the ten percent of FSW permanent residents. From 2006 to 2010 the BC PNP was found to provide greater distribution of immigrants outside of Metro Vancouver compared to FSW, but the Vancouver area total was still seventy-eight percent of immigrants. CIC’s (2011a) Evaluation of PNPs found these streams were successful in distributing a larger proportion, in total forty-seven percent, of economic immigrations outside urban centers (p.69). Carter, Morrish and Amoyaw (2008) describe the strategic impact of Manitoba PNP in influencing the distribution of immigrants to smaller urban and rural communities. Another research study by Lewis (2010) finds PNPs are more successful in attracting immigrants outside urban centers, but suggests there are more gaps in service delivery as more and more of the burden of selection, attraction and integration is carried by immigrants or regional communities. However, a CIC study noted that the top destinations for PNP

nominees remain larger cities, not smaller communities (CIC, 2011a, p.24). Interestingly, immigrants actually perform better in smaller rather than larger census metropolitan areas (CMAs) (Bernard, 2008). Several reasons exist for this finding including fewer credential recognition barriers because a smaller percentage of the domestic population have higher education, greater interaction with individuals outside the immigrant’s ethnic community, and a greater portion of immigrants selected to meet labour market needs through programs such as the PNP (Bernard, p.152-153). Nonetheless, regionalizing labour migration for both immigrants and Canadian-born workers remains a conundrum for economic development researchers (Kustec, p.13). This will be discussed in more detail in the next section.

No discussion of regionalization is complete without an evaluation of retention. BC’s retention rate of provincial nominees was ninety-six percent, the highest in Canada (CIC, 2011a, p.53). Similarly, the BC PNP evaluation found a retention rate of ninety-four percent with eighty-six percent of nominees continuing to live in the first community where they settled (Grant

Thornton, p.21). However, the evaluation suggested the BC PNP should “develop strategies to increase regional employers’ participation in the program, and enhance support for regional development priorities such as small business succession” (Grant Thornton, p.7). One employer at a session with the Immigration Taskforce commented that more than fifty percent of

immigrants do not intend to stay in BC’s regions. This is partly because these communities lack the settlement and integration programs for newcomers (BC, 2012a, p.20). Yet, where some of the research points to settlement and integration difficulties, Aydemir and Robinson (2008)

provide evidence that often a large percentage of permanent immigrants are actually temporary and find that the first year after arrival is a critical period for retention (OECD, p.92).

4.2 REGIONALIZATION OF

IMMIGRANTS

Part of the rationale behind creating PNPs was the high concentration of immigrants in Canada’s three largest cities – Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver (MTV)—and concern about population aging and outmigration in regional areas (Wulff at al., p.120). Canada, like most OECD

countries, experiences lower population growth and higher concentrations of immigrants in urban metropolitan centres (Hugo, 2008, p.127). International migration is expected to account for seventy-four percent of BC’s population in the next decade (BC Stats, 2011c, p.2). With other countries experiencing the same demographic challenges and economic growth highly dependent on human capital, attracting skilled immigrants is expected to become even more difficult with increased global competition (Alexander, Burleton & Fong, 2012, p.5). Nolin at al. (2009) argue the FSW program by design indirectly encourages urban immigration as it

prioritizes highly skilled and educated immigrants who are not typically drawn to regions (p.44). Strong arguments exist to use immigration as an economic tool to improve a country’s human capital by matching the occupations of prospective immigrants to labour market needs (Kustec, 2012; Lenard & Straehle, 2010; Tu, 2010). Nevertheless, it is difficult through economic forecasting to predict economic cycles and truly achieve a perfect match. Immigration, as such, cannot be viewed as “quick fix” for labour market gaps and shortages though it can play a role in alleviating pressure on certain segments of the labour market (Kustec, p.25). The focus is on getting the immigration mix right. Yet a more balanced distribution of immigrants would arguably alleviate overcrowding in cities and improve the population growth of regions and remote areas. As previously mentioned, PNPs are found to improve the regional distribution of immigrants. Bagley underscores the importance of partnerships to the success of regionalization. Mobility rights under the constitution make it impossible force new immigrants to stay in regions or continue working for employers supporting PNP nominations unless the immigrants

themselves voluntarily choose to stay (Bagley, p.134). By design, thus, PNPs require two-way immigration and include local actors and communities as jointly responsible for the settlement and integration of newcomers.

The difficulty for regionalization policy continues to be the often uneven and unequal

distribution of immigrants. Even with improvements in regionalization, Akbar, Kelly and Park (2012) found most PNP immigrants from 1996 to 2009 live in western provinces and in major metropolitan areas. In Prairie Provinces there was a sharp increase in immigrants from 2000 to 2010 because of the introduction and growth of the provincial nominee class (Baglay, p.123). While provincial nominees make up seventy-five percent of immigrants to the Atlantic

Provinces, the figures are less significant for British Columbia as the percentage of immigrants arriving through other immigration classes remain large (Baxter, p.15-16). Gender distribution is also unequal as sixty-seven percent of BC PNP nominees are male though this is similar to the distribution for the FSW class (BC Stats, 2011a, p.3). Some regions within provinces also benefit more from regionalization strategies. The BC PNP Evaluation found nominees destined outside the Mainland Southwest region were primarily living in the Vancouver Island & Coast and the Thompson & Okanagan regions. Only two percent overall were destined for the Northeast with none to the Northwest (Grant Thornton, p.16-17). Yet, this distribution, excluding the Northwest,

is similar to the size of the Northern BC labour force. Ultimately, when it comes to

regionalization the question of equity continues to be problematic for all immigration classes. CIC (2001) analyzed ways to achieve a better balance of regional distribution. Mechanisms suggested to improve regionalization are “financial incentives (e.g. waiving application fees), reduced entry requirements, and provincial nominee programs as mechanisms for increasing immigrant dispersal” (Kukushkin at al., p.10). The 2011 CIC evaluation affirmed that through PNPs regions outside large metropolitan areas receive a greater share of the benefits of

immigration and are able to address gaps in local employment especially for lower and semi-skilled workers (Okony-Myers, p.27). Okony-Myers’ study found a link between regional economic development strategies and migration as the former needs to be in place in order to attract and retain immigrants (Okony-Myers, p.55). This finding is consistent with other research as Devoretz (2006) found the most important reasons for immigration to regions are better employment opportunities and increased income (p.413). The size and health of the labour market is another key settlement factor (Nolin et al., 2009, p.11). Previous studies indicate a greater likelihood of migration from smaller CMAs to larger ones especially when there are higher rates of unemployment (Finnie, 2004). If better jobs and opportunities are located in larger provinces and urban centres, immigrants will move in the same way as Canadians (Houle, 2007, p.23). In short, there is a relationship between economic development and the

regionalization of immigrants.

While employment opportunities are an important factor, they are not the only factor influencing immigration and retention to smaller communities. Smaller communities are appealing to

immigrants because of lifestyle factors such as proximity to leisure activities, lower housing costs, cleaner air and shorter commutes (Kukushkin et al., p.48). Proximity to ethnic networks and a critical mass of people from the same source country increased the likelihood of

immigrants choosing areas outside CMAs. Immigrants often migrate to areas where they have ethnic networks or relatives (Kukushkin et al., p.6). Interestingly, Ruddick (2004) found most immigrants know where they want to live in Canada prior to leaving their home country because of the strong pull of networks and family connections. Factors such as housing availability, cost of living, adequate transportation, amenities, education quality and prospects, health care services, childcare facilities are used along with employment prospects to assess the appeal of a place and successful settlement and integration of immigrants (Canadian Labour and Business Centre, 2005, p.5; Nolin et al., 2009, p.12-13). One incentive, or disincentive depending on the region, is climate as milder climates are appealing to migrants. Spousal employment factors into the equation as a lack of opportunities in smaller communities poses difficulties to attract skilled immigrants to regional labour markets (Kukushkin et al., p.49).

Furthermore, immigration is a two-way process as the community context the immigrant enters and joins is critical to successful attraction and retention (Hiebert & Ley, 2003). Abu-Laban, Derwing and Krahan (2008) document reasons for secondary migration among immigrants. Frequent responses relate to finding more inclusive or less expensive communities, employment or education opportunities, and family ties (p.888). CIC found non-metropolitan areas on average less supportive of immigration though the level of dissatisfaction tended to be positively

correlated to higher regional unemployment rates (CIC, 2001, p.51). Evidently people in regions are more concerned about immigration’s effect on employment than local culture though the