The influence of decreasing soil fertility on the
economic and political stability in Egypt
Source: (Crane, 2015)
Nienke de Visser 11067993
Maayke Thompson 11030062
Timo van den Berg 10801375
Mees van Milligen de Wit 11056967 Research Report
Abstract Introduction Theoretical Framework Soil Fertility Economic stability Political stability Methods Interdisciplinairy integration Results
How soil fertility is affected in the Nile delta
The role of the Egyptian authoritarian regime in the loss of fertile soil
How a decrease in soil fertility and political and economic stability impact one another
Conclusion, Discussion and Recommendations
Abstract
In this literature report research was completed on the impact of soil degradation in the Nile River delta on the political and economic stability in Egypt. Soil degradation is a severe problem in Egypt and soil degrading processes are mainly driven by anthropogenic forces both directly and indirectly (influence of natural trends). Several causes of soil degradation are covered in this report by the scientific disciplines Earth Science, Political Science and Economics. This interdisciplinary paper describes the problem of soil degradation by combining the concepts of soil fertility, political stability and economic stability into an integrated framework. This framework then serves as a tool for the involved actors to obtain further understanding of processes that influence soil fertility and stability. When the framework is evaluated it becomes clear that a significant reinforcing feedback loop occurs, not only creating but also expanding political and economic instability. The Nile delta may in fact be approaching a critical threshold. If the system were to pass this threshold, it may not be able to self-organise sufficiently and shift back into the old system state. Effective legislation, sustainable land use and the reduction of the gap between governmental institutions and farmers is the key to finding a sustainable solution to the problem of soil degradation in the Nile River delta. Further research may be necessary in order to collect data on how indispensable resources such as water and fertile soil are to be managed in Egypt.
Introduction
Egypt is a densely populated country and the population is not equally spread over the total land area. In fact, 60 million people live on less than 4 percent of the land, almost exclusively in the Nile Valley, Nile Delta and a few cities along the Northern coast (Kotb et al., 2000). The share per capita of agricultural land is ca. 0,05 ha in Egypt, which is among the lowest in the world (FAO, 2005). Furthermore, the Nile Delta is subsiding, largely attributable to reduced sediment load from the river Nile due to the Aswan Dam and irrigation upstream, as well as geophysical subsidence (Bohannon, J. 2010; Dumont & El-Shabrawy, 2007). As a result, seawater intrudes the delta, causing salinization of soils and freshwater (Yates et al., 1998).
Considering these figures and the high population growth rate (Awad & Zohry, 2005), it is not surprising that pressure on the agricultural sector and its productivity keeps increasing. Loss of fertile soil is one of the most common problems in the Nile delta and has affected almost the complete delta (El-Gunidy, 1989), as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. A map of the Nile delta which indicates the degree of salinization of soils, categorized by darker areas being non-saline to lighter areas being highly saline. Lighter boundary lines are catchment boundaries and dots are groundwater pump stations, adopted from El-Gunidy, 1989. The Egyptian government has introduced multiple policies in order to prevent soil degradation (Kotb, et al., 2000). However, solving the problem is complicated due to a malfunctioning authoritarian regime that has brought about many challenges that change over time (Kawy & Ali., 2000). The loss of fertile soil may also have serious consequences for the economy of Egypt. In 2013, agriculture employed 29,2% of the labour force (CIA Factbook, 2013). It is feared that low overall economic growth, combined with population growth and decreased land productivity will lead to short-term consumption rather than long term investment (Yates et al., 1998). This might severely harm the stability of the economic future of Egypt. It is relevant to examine how soil degradation will influence the political and economic stability in Egypt, because it is of large essence that the previously mentioned problems are being dealt with, as the Nile river and its fertile delta are of great importance for the livelihood of the large population of Egypt.
As the issue of loss of soil fertility is affected by land use practices, natural trends, political and economic policies that cause both damage and loss of soils, it is important to look
at all of these perspectives (Kotb et al., 2000). The loss of soil fertility meets the requirements to be qualified as a ‘complex system’ because it meets most of the stated properties of a complex system proposed by Rammelt (lecture, 2017). Scientific research in an interdisciplinary manner is crucial to address this topic to capture the complexity and broadness of the problem of soil degradation in the Nile Delta and its consequences. Solely focussing on one scientific area will not cover all relationships, causes and consequences regarding the overexploitation of fertile soil in the Nile Delta.
The objective of the research is to assess the conditions and consequences of the overexploitation of a finite resource such as fertile soil and thereby analysing the relation of political and economic stability on soil degradation. Moreover, this report aims to present a framework of the problem that can be used in future research on reducing overexploitation or for introducing new policies that can help shift Egypt towards more economically viable and sustainable alternatives.
This paper will examine the following research question: how will soil degradation in the Nile River Delta impact the economic and political stability in Egypt? In order to answer this research question two sub-questions are formulated: how is soil fertility affected in the Nile Delta ? and How does a decrease in soil fertility affect the stability in the Nile Delta?
The study will be structured as followed; firstly, a theoretical framework will define concepts such as soil fertility, economic stability and political stability. Second, a methodological section will include the operationalisation and elaborate on the interdisciplinary integration of the research. The results section will provide the findings of the research and formulate an answer to the research question. The report will be finalized with a conclusion and a discussion which will present specific recommendations for further research.
Theoretical Framework
The theoretical framework explains different concepts from the different, scientific disciplines to find overlaps and contrasts in order to interlink these concepts.
Soil fertility
Soil fertility is a complex concept that is still evolving as new research is conducted. For this research however, the following definition is adopted from Karlen et al. (1997) as it is the most common definition: "the capacity of a specific kind of soil to function, within natural or managed ecosystem boundaries, to sustain plant and animal productivity, maintain or enhance water and air quality, and support human health and habitation”. As this concept is naturally a more earth science-related concept, the definition by Karlen et al. also links the ecosystem services of soil to stability. If a threshold (ecosystem boundary) is passed (Folke et al., 2010), when present trends linked to soil degradation will continue in the Nile delta, it is evident that a soil is less able to provide maintenance of livelihood, habitat and other services for the human population. This reduced ability to sustain the population in the Nile delta in the future will decrease both the economic and political stability.
Economic stability
With regards to the concept of economic stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published the definition that is currently leading and is the most followed by scientists and policy makers:
Economic stability refers to avoiding economic and financial crises, large swings in economic activity, high inflation, and excessive volatility in foreign exchange and financial markets. Instability can increase uncertainty, discourage investment, impede economic growth and hurt living standards.[…] The challenge for policymakers is to minimize instability in their own country and abroad without reducing the economy’s ability to improve living standards through rising productivity, employment, and sustainable growth (IMF Factsheet, 2017).
This definition stresses the importance of continuity of economic activity and the absence of economic crises. In case of instability, a nation's economy does not function properly, which might lead to economic distortions, thereby changing the economic situation for the worse.
Furthermore, this definition sets out a clear task for policymakers to strive for as little instability as possible. This shows that in the view from the IMF, policymakers are the stakeholders that are responsible for reducing economic instability, as they are the ones that are able to actively take measures. In this case, these policy makers will mostly be the Egyptian government. However, their ability to mitigate economic instability is closely connected to the functioning of the government. Therefore, the concept of political stability will be discussed in the next paragraph. With regards to Egypt, the Nile Delta is economically particularly important as it accounts for 60 percent of the agricultural land and 60 percent of the population in Egypt (Yates, 1998). Furthermore, it hosts a number of highly populated cities, such as Alexandria, Port-Said, Rosetta and Damietta (El-Raey, 1997). As for the rest of the country, desert and uninhabited land represent about 95% of the total land area (Ghar et al., 2004). In 2013, agriculture employed 29,2% of the labour force (CIA, 2013). At the same time, urbanisation is an inevitable process due to economic development and rapid population growth, which still leads to a noticeable loss net loss of agricultural land (Ghar et al., 2004). Apart from the current economic implications, such as increasing land prices, future risks have also been assessed. In the scenarios of Milliman et al. (1989) losses between 14% until 16,5% of the gross domestic product in the Nile Delta in 2050 been expected, due to subsidence and dammed rivers. El-Raey (1997) expects severe
economic losses due to subsidence and sea level rise as well, since this will reduce the available agricultural land considerable.
Political stability
In order to define the concept of political stability in Egypt it is important to understand how the ‘ruling’ authoritarian regime in Egypt has come into power and how this regime exercises this power. The ‘ruling’ authoritarian regime in Egypt refers to the individuals who ‘exercise power’ for a certain period of time. In Egypt, the regime usually consists of the president, his close family and a small group of ‘elite’ including carefully selected party, intelligence and military officers (Kienle, 2001).
When coup leader Gamal Abdel Nasser became prime-minister in 1954 and president in 1956, he ruled unchallenged up until his death in 1970. Nasser’s regime was not beneficial for the growing income inequality in Egypt and brought about the challenge of millions underemployed and poor citizens who lived in economic insecurity (Levitsky & Way, 2005).
After his death in September 1970, Nasser was succeeded by Vice-President Anwar al-Sadat. President Sadat’s regime came up with several open-door economic policies and increased economic liberalization. With Soviet funding, he completed the Aswan High Dam which had great impact on industry, irrigation and agriculture in Egypt (Blaydes, 2010). In October 1981, President Sadat was assassinated by Islamic extremist and succeeded by Vice-President Hosni Mubarak. Vice-President Mubarak imposed the State of Emergency, restricting assembly, freedom of expression and political activity in Egypt. In early 2011, the beginning of a period also known as ‘the Arab Spring’, anti-government demonstrations started to occur in Egypt. President Mubarak was forced to step down and hand over power to the army council. He went on trial in August 2011, charged with ordering the killing of demonstrators. In June 2012, Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, narrowly wins the presidential election (Blaydes, 2010).
When looking at these important political events, it becomes clear that most policies that are put forth by the ruling Egyptian regime represent a rational response to the challenges it was facing. In a political system, there are several political actors involved that have different assumptions, goals and aspirations. Political actors work to solve problems, resulting in a series of short-term decisions that accumulate into a set of policies (Pierson, 2004). The relationship between regime and state becomes complicated, due to the fact that the Egyptian state is large and has the tendency to promote policies that contradict each other (Poggi, 1978).
The short timeline presented in the paragraphs above indicate that the political system in Egypt has been far from stable in the last 60 years. Not only have successive regimes and state leaders introduced policies that contradicted those of their predecessors, violent demonstrations and even revolutions have made the evolution of political action in Egypt very unpredictable.
In order to conduct this research, the following methodology has been used. Data was gathered by making use of secondary scientific sources. This implies that this information has been acquired by a researcher and has been integrated in this study. Due to the limited availability of time and resources was it not possible to collect primary data. For this research, both qualitative and quantitative papers have been used. Acquiring the data has been done by studying and evaluating academic papers for an extensive period of time.
In sampling the data, there has been a focus on articles from scientific journals that have Egypt and/or the Nile Delta in particular as subject. However, articles that focus on other
countries or locations have been used as well, wherever it was useful to provide more context. With regards to the origin of the cited researchers, data was gathered from both Egyptian researchers as well as from non-Egyptian researchers. This choice has been made because on the one hand, Egyptian researchers may have inside information about local practices and may be better able to interpret their results in the right cultural context of Egypt. This could be valuable for the research. On the other hand, researchers with a different origin might have the ability to evaluate Egyptian practices and traditions from an outsider's perspective. This external view may be refreshing and therefore contribute to the research. There has been tried to use to most recent data as possible, in order to decrease the risk of data. However, in some cases it was useful to cite older papers, as the change over time in certain doctrines was an addition for the research. This occurred for example for data from the political science perspective. To understand several current phenomena, it is crucial to have a basic understanding of the policy history of Egypt. This provides a justification for using older secondary sources. In conclusion, the authors of this literature study have tried to keep data as independent and diverse as possible.
The search strategy that has been applied can be divided in different phases: firstly, the different disciplinary concepts have been studied separately, to achieve a basic understanding of the relevant subjects. Secondly, the disciplinary definitions have been compared in order to find connections and similarities. In order to cross these disciplinary boundaries, the search strategy has been expanded towards merely interdisciplinary papers.
The analysis of the data follows a similar pathway. In the first phase, the source is being appraised by assessing how the research has been performed, what its results are and how much it is cited by other researchers. In the second phase, the fit with this research has been investigated. Papers that contained context in line with this research made this research more convincing, whereas papers that showed contrast with the rationale of this paper where reason to further research that topic. By following this method, the authors were able to present a clear answer to the research question in the results and conclusion.
Interdisciplinary Integration
In order to perform an interdisciplinary research, it is of importance to define both the linkages between the involved disciplines and the conflicts that may rise by different approaches towards the subject. The integration process takes place based on the analysed linkages, aiming to merge all interdisciplinary lenses into one framework.
In order to analyse this complexity, it is necessary to find ‘common ground’ between the different disciplines. Repko (2016) clearly explains how ‘common ground’ can be formed in order to analyse different conflicting disciplines in an interdisciplinary approach. Because this research focuses on the influence of both soil fertility on the political and economic stability and
the influence of the political and economic stability on soil fertility it is of essence to find ‘common ground’ and approach this problem from an interdisciplinary perspective.
Due to numerous involved disciplines and concepts in the Nile delta considering the soil fertility problem, common ground between the different disciplinary insights have to be created in order to integrate towards an interdisciplinary framework. As earlier stated, the integration techniques provided by Repko (2016) will be used as a method to integrate the different disciplines and form common ground. In this research, the extension method by Repko (2016) is used to expand the meaning of an idea beyond the domain of one (sub)discipline into the domain of another (sub)discipline. The process of extension identifies collectivity/similarities in concepts of different disciplines interlinks them. Consequently, the different causal links or relations between different concepts can be mapped or arranged (Repko, 2016). The result of the process of this extension method is visualised in figure 3.
Figure 2: Integrated framework, visualising the different disciplinary insights in one interdisciplinary framework. For this framework, the extension method of Repko (2016) is used. This integrated framework shows the interactions between the different disciplines. The most important observation is the interconnectedness between the concepts, except for Sea level rise, all concepts influence each other and therefore create reinforcing feedback loops. In the case of the Nile delta, these reinforcing feedback loops have negative consequences for the stability of the system. Reinforcing loops in general have the tendency to destabilize a system and might even shift a system into another state. However, looking at it the other way around, it can be seen as an opportunity because it causes a system to change (Meadows, 2008). The integrated framework will be analysed in the results section of this research report. The different
interconnections will be explained and analysed, furthermore the meaning of these linkages will be presented.
Despite the fact that this integrated framework is an abstract view of the actual situation it gives insight in the interaction between the different concepts and actors. With this framework, it is possible to answer the stated research questions and sub questions in an interdisciplinary approach. Nevertheless, it should be noted that not all involved actors are studied and thus not incorporated in this abstract integrated framework and therefore not all interactions are taken into account.
Results
How soil fertility is affected in the Nile delta
Because the problem of loss of soil fertility covers multiple disciplines, this problem exists of a large number of interconnections between different elements of the system in the form of feedback loops which for example influence several scientific disciplines.
The Aswan High Dam (AHD) has been named by various authors as a negative influence on the availability of fertile soil in the Nile delta. It has altered the natural flow and sedimentation cycles from the Nile, causing a disappearance of the annual floods in the Nile delta (Bohannon, 2010; Stanley & Warne, 1998; Negm, 2017; Abd-El Monsef et al., 2015).
The Nile delta is subsiding due to compaction of the clayey soils that once were deposited by the river Nile (Stanley & Warne, 1993; 1998). This loss of land is not compensated anymore by sediment from the Nile, because of the blocking of sediment by the Aswan High Dam. This means that arable land is in a trend of disappearing into the sea, especially in relation to the projected sea level rise and related increased coastal erosion. When the dam was constructed in 1960, it was seen as a political project from Nasser, with comparisons between the dam and the building of the pyramids to boost nation-building (Van der Schalie, 1974). However, side-effects were mostly overlooked. The increased subsidence due to the lack of sediment, in combination with projected sea level rise due to the global warming theory and therefore increased coastal erosion, will further decrease the area of arable land.
In addition to the increasing subsidence and sea level rise which lead to loss of soil availability and fertility, poor land use practices by the periphery put even more pressure on the agricultural lands. In the Nile delta, excessive irrigation, human intervention in natural drainage, improperly time use of heavy machinery, poor water quality and the absence of conservation measurements are the key processes causing loss of soil fertility in the Nile delta (El Baroudy, 2005; El Baroudy, 2011; El Baroudy, 2014; Elewa & Nahry, 2008; El-Kway et al., 2011; Mohamed et al., 2013; Morgun & Kovda, 2011; Shalaby & Tateishi, 2007). These processes need to be defined in order to be applicable for different stakeholders.
Conservation of water is closely related to excessive irrigation and is defined as the capacity to reuse water. The reuse of water can be achieved through several water-saving methods. Compaction due to heavy machinery is defined as the increase in bulk density due to increased pressure (g/cm3) (Mohamed et al., 2013). Water quality is measured by the electric
conductivity (EC), temperature, pH, ionic composition of major and trace components and total dissolved solids (TDS) (Masoud, 2014; Wahaab & Badawy, 2004) Lastly, poor human intervention in natural drainage systems can be defined as the extent to which human negatively interfere with natural drainage systems and thereby causing water logging which is measured in the height of the water table (Abdel-Dayem, & El-Safty, 1993; El Baroudy, 2011). These processes are mostly used as a response to lower yields due to decreased soil fertility (El Baroudy, 2011; Shalaby & Tateishi, 2007). Furthermore, these processes are usually carried out to increase the amount of available water. At first hand these processes might seem to be beneficial for farmers because of increased yields over a short period of time, however, over a longer period of time these processes severely increase the loss of fertile soil and thereby decreasing soil fertility and consequently decreasing yields (Kotb et al., 2000). In addition to this, the absence of floods from the river Nile due to the Aswan High Dam cause salinization and pollution of soils in combination with the projected sea level rise. The delta is not ‘rinsed’ of polluted water anymore due to floods and the increased water table leads to an increased
evaporation. Pessarakli & Szabolcs (1999) state, concerning the fertility of soils affected by increased salinity, that for instance, but not only, increased evaporation in (semi-)arid climates (Hussein & Mohamed, 2016) lead to salt stress by plants, seriously hindering crop yield and growth. This further affects the fertility of soils in the Nile delta.
The periphery in the Nile delta was and still is heavily dependent on the same type of resource namely, water and fertile soil. Therefore, little differentiation within the agricultural industry has occurred. As a result, it can be argued that the periphery is currently in the social trap of path dependency (Boonstra & de Boer, 2014). This means that the periphery counters the loss of soil fertility with processes that eventually further increase loss of soil fertility. Path dependency might even lead to reinforcing feedback loops (Boonstra & de Boer, 2014; Meadows, 2008).
Because the Nile delta is heavily dependent on fertile soil and water, multiple scholars researched the past and current high rates of loss of soil fertility in the Nile delta (Elewa & Nahry, 2008; El-Kway et al., 2011; Mohamed et al., 2013). Therefore, knowledge seems to be abundant. However, loss of fertile soil is still increasing in the Nile Delta (Mohamed, 2016). In conclusion, multiple factors that decrease the fertility of soils in the Nile delta can be divided in two main categories. The first category includes consequences for the fertility of soils due to the altered water regime of the Nile river and the trend of rising sea levels. Subsidence, coastal erosion, salinization and water logging tend to be examples of these negative consequences. Furthermore, the loss of fertile soil, incurred by the periphery in the Nile delta further diminishes the soil fertility by excessive irrigation, intervening in the natural drainage system of the delta, improperly time use of heavy machinery, poor water quality and the absence of conservation measurements.
One important actor in the system that causes the periphery to continue these poor agricultural land use practices, further degrading the land to a point of adverse yields, is the Egyptian authoritarian regime (Bush, 2007).
Figure 3. Location of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) in Egypt (Source: Heldal, T., n.d. Assessed on 21 November 2017, retrieved from:
The role of the Egyptian authoritarian regime in the loss of fertile soil
President Nasser’s regime was not beneficial for the growing income inequality in Egypt and brought about the challenge of millions underemployed and poor citizens who lived in economic insecurity (Levitsky & Way, 2005). During Nasser’s rule, protests in Egypt’s peripheral regions occurred as a reaction to changes in tenancy law that had kept Nasser’s reforms from giving rights and economic security to land tenants and rural poor (Bush, 2007). Since 1987, small-scale farmers had repeatedly suffered from market reforms, withdrawals of state guarantees, increased poverty, misunderstanding over land boundaries and struggles with access to irrigations (Bush, 2007).
After his death in September 1970, Nasser was succeeded by Vice-President Anwar al-Sadat. President Sadat’s regime came up with several open-door economic policies and increased economic liberalization. With Soviet funding, he completed the Aswan High Dam which had great impact on industry, irrigation and agriculture in Egypt (Blaydes, 2010), as mentioned earlier in the result section of this paper. In October 1981, President Sadat was assassinated by Islamic extremists and succeeded by vice-President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak started to dismantle Nasser’s redistributive reforms from the 1950’s and 1960’s, but his counter revolution only worsened rural poverty and failed to raise agricultural productivity. Furthermore, Mubarak imposed the State of Emergency, restricting assembly, freedom of expression and political activity in Egypt, making it hard for the oppressed to express their dissent (Bush, 2010).
One of the most violent food riots and opposition to authoritarian governmental policies occurred in 2008. At this point, more than half of Egypt’s population was living below the poverty line. Egypt was severely food insecure (Bush, 2010). Anger in peripheral regions over every day struggles were fuelled by price inflation. Farmer mobilization challenged the increasing privatization of land and local inequality, but the opposition was very uneven (Bush, 2010). The food riot that occurred offered a glimpse of responses from oppressed peripheral regions to failing policies created by the authoritarian regime, which the government only countered with violence and palliatives of temporary price controls. It almost seemed as if governments waited for the market to lose its volatility because this was an easier practise than addressing issues of agricultural policies (Bush, 2010).
It is important to create a link between the failing policies created by powerful Egyptian authoritarian regimes and the failing agricultural practices exercised by farmers in peripheral regions that keep increasing the degradation of fertile soil in Egypt. A theory that can help to understand this connection is the resource dependency theory which is based on the fact that power and resource dependence are directly linked. Pfeffer & Salancik (1978) state that this linkage comes into being because resources are a basis of power and actors depend on resources. As political or economic environments contain several actors, resources required by one actor are often in the hands of other actors. Originally independent actors can therefore be dependent of each other; actor A’s power over actor B is equal to actor B’s dependence on actor A’s resources.
So how can the resource dependency theory and its core concept be applied to the Egyptian case of declining fertile soil? Although the Nile River flows through Egyptian land, its water is considered to be a scarce natural resource due to a rapidly growing population, a limited quota of Nile water and to wide desert lands where main drinking and irrigation water originates from underground sources (Afifi, 2009). More than 97 percent of Egypt’s freshwater
emanates from the Nile of which it spends 86 percent on agriculture (Wiebe, 2001). Even though the country has the longest history of water engineering and management in the world, Egypt is facing some key development challenges (Handoussa, 2010).
Like in in many other countries, the water crisis in Egypt affects the poorer regions, or periphery, the most. Nearly 70 percent of the poor or food insecure people live in these peripheral areas (Wiebe, 2001). Communities in these areas depend of the Nile for fertile soils (water, irrigation for crops). One could state that the situation in Egypt is in line with concepts of the resource dependency theory, which notes that resources flow from a ‘periphery’ of mostly poor and underdeveloped regions to a ‘core’ of wealthier and developed regions (Bush, 2007). Peripheral regions in Egypt are dependent on a resource of which the management is controlled by the current governmental regime via policies that fit to their best interests. The resource fertile soil is handled by uninformed and poor peripheral regions but the yield from the resource is controlled by the government, which has resulted in severe economic distortions.
The discussed imperfect land and capital markets can also significantly influence the decisions of farmers whether or not they will try to control soil erosion. Land prices are the most reliable indicator that a farming household will have of the effects of soil erosion on land productivity (Barbier, 1997). However, rural land markets are distorted by the governmental policies, as discussed above. Consequently, the costs of soil erosion, in terms of future crop productivity and income, may not be reflected in, or is not even related to the price of land (Barbier, 1997). As a result, the lack of effective markets distorts the farmers decision as to whether an investment in soil protection is worthwhile (Barbier, 1997). Furthermore, poverty clearly constraints farmers ability' to manage soil fertility (Barbier, 1997). For a large group of small-scale farmers in Egypt, land productivity, and therefore household income, is declining and there is limited access to capital and/or alternative economic opportunities (Sowers, 2011). Thus, farmers have the option (and sometimes do not even have the possibility to do so) to protect the soil because of future productivity and income potential, even though this choice is not reflected in the price of the land, or to exploit the soil for immediate gain today. This makes the opportunity costs of soil conservation in Egypt extremely high (Barbier, 1997). As a result, due to economic distortions, farmers do not have an incentive to improve their land use and to protect their soils.
Since the 1980's the Egyptian government has been taking strict measures in order to reduce the pressure on agricultural land (Ghar et al., 2004). Legislation that prohibits appropriation of agricultural land for urban purposes has been issued as well as land use legislation (Ghar et al., 2004). However, Ghar et al. (2004) concluded after a land monitoring research that the urbanisation process still has led to a noticeable net loss of agricultural land. Apparently, the government is not able to protect the productive agricultural soils. Even more, Bohannon states in his paper published in 2010 that environmental policies regarding water availability have little to no effect. The greatest power that the Egyptian government has, is the control of the influx of water into the Nile delta (Stanley & Warne, 1998; Bohannon, 2010). But the key to effectively use that water for agriculture in the Nile delta, lies in effective policy making in that specific area.
Assuming that farmers have the possibility to adjust their land use, Barbier (1997) argues that several phenomena can affect the farmers perception of the costs and benefits of controlling soil erosion. These are market, policy and institutional failures such as insecure tenure or ownership of the land and distorted market prices for input and output (Barbier, 1997).
All of the above elements are present in the current economy of Egypt. As discussed above, Egypt has a turbulent history of governmental involvement and reform policies. This also applies to the tenure and ownership of land, where uncertainty about property relations accelerated migration from the countryside into the great cities (Malm & Esmailian, 2013).
Furthermore, Egypt has a long tradition of governmental subsidies. During the period 2001-2011, more than 20 percent of total governmental expenditures were spent on subsidies. (Ghoneim, 2012). A significant part of those are food subsidies. However, the food subsidy system is put under pressure by inefficiencies, related to corruption, waste and lack of right targeting (Ghoneim, 2012). Because the food subsidies make the state the largest buyer of wheat (about 30 percent of the wheat production), the Ministry of Social Solidarity is able to set the leading food price (Malm & Esmailian, 2013). These practices have suffered greatly from corruption, as it turned out that influential people had private companies that benefited from manipulating the prices of wheat (Ghoneim, 2012). This is a clear example of both institutional failure as well as a distorted market price for output and is an obstruction to a free and well-functioning market. In addition, small scale farmers are often not able to manage. Now salinization is speeding up, farmers see their harvests fail more often. As a way of coping, they pour sand on their land to elevate it (Malm & Esmailian, 2013), change to rice cultivation (Bohannon, 2010) and pumping up groundwater (Stanley & Warne, 1998; El-Agha et al., 2017). But sand is the property of the owners of the land on which it is found, which makes it a commodity in private hands; on the sand market, prices are constantly rising (Malm & Esmalian, 2013). The lack of monitoring and effective regulation of groundwater and surface water use (Bohannon, 2010; El-Agha et al., 2017) also leads to a ‘tragedy of the commons’, where farmers pump up water and use land elevation techniques, if they have the resources, creating serious problems for agriculture in the Nile delta in the long term. This creates a division between farmers, the poorer farmers have to abandon their land, while those who stay are the ones who can afford the sand (Malm & Esmalian, 2013). This distorts the free market even further.
In conclusion, the market distortions, mainly caused by government policies affect economic stability. The Nile Delta is of high importance for the agricultural economy of Egypt. Therefore, declining productivity due to soil degradation obviously has negative consequences on the economic stability. In the earlier discussed definition of economic stability, policymakers are held responsible for economic stability. In this case, the Egyptian government has the difficult task to reduce economic distortions in order to reduce soil degradation.
How a decrease in soil fertility and political and economic stability impact one another
The relationships between all concepts have been illustrated in the integrated framework (figure 3). The arrows show the causal connections. When taking the relationships illustrated in the integrated framework into account, the structure and presentation of the results can be anticipated as followed: the two main actors, being the government (policies) and farmers in peripheral regions (cultivation), both (in)directly contribute to poor agricultural practices. These poor agricultural practices together with factors such as sea level rise and enhanced subsidence due to sediment blockage by the AHD, account for almost all loss of fertile soil.
Moreover, malfunctioning governmental policies regarding the agricultural sector and poor agricultural practices executed by farmers in rural areas therefore (in)directly lead to economic distortions which in turn puts more pressure of the government and the farmers and thus, leads to an even greater loss of fertile soil. From both the results in paragraph 6.1 and the integrated framework, it becomes clear that multiple feedback loops occur; forcing the entire system to keep reinforcing itself.
Distance and a lack of communication between the government and peripheral regions lead to a continuous loss of fertile soil, which in turn leads to more political malfunctioning and more detachment between the government and the periphery. This phenomenon can be explained as followed; when state institutions are weak and budget procedures lack transparency, resource dependent countries tend to undermine democratic governance and generate authoritarian governments (Wantchekon, 2002). According to Dahl (1971), an uneven distribution/a lack of/a declining stock of resources can push actors to try and influence the behaviour of actors that are in grand possession of the required resources. Furthermore, extreme inequalities in the distribution of key resources often go with similar inequalities in political resources. In other words, a country with extreme inequalities in resources stands a very high chance of having extreme inequality in the exercise of power and hence to an authoritarian regime. It is often these authoritarian regimes that incite the opposition (peripheral citizenry) to resort to political violence in competing for political power and thereby generating political instability (Wantchekon, 2002). Taking this into account, the complexity of the problem can be simplified, which can help to clarify the interconnectedness of the illustrated concepts. A potential limitation of this structure can be that other influential factors may be overlooked. However, these factors are likely to fall outside the scope of our disciplines and thereby outside the scope of our research, or are too large and/or complex to fit within our system boundaries.
Conclusion, Discussion and Recommendations
This paper has examined the following research question; how will soil fertility in the Nile River Delta impact the economic and political stability in Egypt? Sea level rise, subsidence and poor human land practices are the processes leading to severe loss of soil fertility in the Nile delta region. These processes decrease both political and economic stability by increasing the gap between the periphery and the authoritarian governmental regime. It is evident that continuous soil degrading practises will indeed impact the future development of political and economic stability. However, the answer to this question is far from unambiguous and needs more, elaborate research to provide a relevant framework for stakeholders to sustain the future of the Nile delta. In the process of this research it became clear that the current level of political and economic instability will in turn impact the ongoing phenomenon of loss of soil fertility. This reinforcing feedback loop might have a disastrous effect on all involved actors because it has the potential to further destabilize the system shifting the system towards a new stable state where salinization and infertile soils make it impossible for the large population that depends on agriculture to sustain. The Nile delta might be approaching a critical threshold, and beyond this threshold the system might not be able to self-organise sufficiently in order to shift back into the old system. In order to break these reinforcing and recurring phenomenon’s, action by different actors is needed. However, this research recognizes Egyptian governmental institutes as the actor with the most power considering soil fertility (and inherently fresh water) as resources, knowledge and legislation and might therefore be the key in breaking this feedback loop. Effective legislation, sustainable land use and reducing the gap between governmental institutions and farmers to find common ground is key in finding a sustainable solution for the problems in the Nile delta. It is relevant for further research to find this solution and to collect detailed data on how resources as water and soils are divided in the Nile delta among farmers and to gather specific, quantitative data on water use, salinization and land use and to structure this data for effective policy making.
The provided interdisciplinary framework can serve as a tool for the different actors to obtain further understanding of the current processes that influence soil fertility and stability. Consequently, these actors might be able to collaborate in order to cope with the increasing soil degradation. As earlier stated in the interdisciplinary integration, not all actors are taken into account and therefore the integrated framework is a simplified model.
In this research only a small part of the complexity of the problem of soil fertility in the Nile Delta is analysed. Earth science, economics and political science are used as a basis for this interdisciplinary literature review. However, there are more disciplines involved in this problem which can play an important role in revealing and clarifying certain feedback loops such as social sciences and human geography to identify key factors in population dynamics in the region and where to effectively intervene to relieve farmers from the social trap of path dependency.
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