LEIDEN UNIVERSITY
Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs
Master in Crisis and Security Management
Master’s Thesis
Climate Change as a threat multiplier in the Middle East
A comparative analysis of Syria and Jordan
Written by: Jean-François De Hertogh (S1600389)
Supervisor: Dr. Elke Devroe - Leiden University Second reader: Dr. C. Kees Nagtegaal - Leiden University
Acknowledgments
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Elke Devroe, for the continuous support of my thesis, her patience, motivation and knowledge. Her guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis.
My sincere thanks also goes to Drs. C. Nagtegaal for his insightful comments and encouragement, but also for the hard question which motivated me to widen my research from various perspectives.
Chapter 1: Introduction
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5
Chapter 2: Literature Review
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8
2.A. Climate Security ...8
2.A.1. Global Warming ...8
2.A.2. Security ...10
2.A.3. Climate security in the MENA region ...11
2.A.3.1 Water stress and the role of climate change in the Syrian uprising ...11
2.A.3.2. Water stress and the role of climate change in Jordan ...13
2.B. Refugee: a term with multiple definitions ...14
2.B.1. The 1951 Refugee Convention ...14
2.B.2. The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) ...15
2.B.3. The Council of Europe and the European Union ...16
2.B.4. Internally displaced persons ...18
2.B.5. Internally displaced persons and the problem of environmental refugees ...19
2.B.6. Conclusion ...19
Chapter 3: Social Research Method
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21
3.A. Research questions ...21
3.B. Framework of analysis and operationalisation ...22
3.C. Research design ...25
3.C.1. Methodology ...25
3.C.2. Data collection methods ...27
Chapter 4: Case Study and analysis
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28
4.A. Syria ...28
4.A.1. Case Study ...28
4.A.2. Analysis and environmental concerns ...34
4.B. Jordan ...37
4.B.1. Case study ...37
4.B.2. Analysis and environmental concerns ...41
Chapter 5: Results
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44
5.A. Syria ...44
5.A.1. Water stress in Syria and potential linkage with climate change ...44
5.A.2. Competition for resources ...45
5.A.3. Political framework and environmental governance ...46
5.A.5. Conclusion on Syrian governance ...50
5.A.5.1. The pre-war strategy ...50
5.A.5.2. The human factor ...51
5.A.5.3. The war strategy ...52
5.B. Jordan ...54
5.B.1. Water stress in Jordan and potential linkage with climate change ...54
5.B.2. Competition for natural resources ...55
5.B.3. Political framework and environmental governance ...55
5.B.4. Peace in Jordan and feedback effect ...56
5.B.5. Conclusion on Jordan governance ...57
5.B.5.1. The human factor ...57
5.B.5.2. First general conclusion ...58
Chapter 6: General conclusion and Policy recommendations
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60
6.A. Answer to the research question ...61
6.B. Limitations of the study ...63
6.C. Policy recommendations ...64
6.D. Discussion ...65
Bibliography
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67
Chapter 1: Introduction
Since the start of the war in Iraq in 2003, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East has been very unstable. In just over a decade, authoritarian leaders were overthrown in Iraq, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Four years on from the Arab Spring and the start of the Syrian war in 2011, challenges have never been so many in the region. Climate change, terrorism and civil unrest are some of the difficult barriers that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region must overcome in search of a better future.
The civil war in Syria has been raging since 2011 and leaves the international community powerless to views of political and military actions already undertaken. Five years later, everyone still wonders how such chaos has taken place in this country which used to maintain relatively peaceful relations across the region. In the continuation of the Arab Spring in the Maghreb, the Syrian Spring has turned into a bloody conflict between various factions over a period of a few months. Popular protest began in Damascus in reaction to the sectarian policies of President Bashar al-Assad and his Alawite government. The country is currently divided between several zones of influence in which different armed groups are fighting for control of land and resources. With the support of the Russian military, government forces are able gradually to gain ground but are faced with the determination of several protest movements such as the Syrian Democratic Forces in the North, the self-proclaimed Islamic State in the East, the Al-Nusra front near Aleppo and Homs, and the Syrian opposition.
Because of increasingly frequent droughts in the Middle-East, climate change is viewed as a threat multiplier in this region. As argued by Francesca De Châtel in 2014, “While climate change did not cause conflict or unrest on its own, it played a significant role as a ‘threat multiplier’” (De Châtel, 2014). This thesis will focus on the climate security aspect of the Syrian conflict in order to understand how climate change and environmental governance have impacted massive population movements within Syria just before the beginning of the war, leading to a growing population in urban centres and an endless conflict. However, only a single case study on Syria lacks scientific evidence. A comparative analysis is needed to identify why climate change leads to chaos in Syria, while relative stability prevails in nearby countries, who also experience global warming and influx of refugees. Jordan is the southern neighbour of Syria and is also facing recurrent droughts as well
as massive influx of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) because of environmental changes (Al-Salihi, 2002, p.585). Like Syria, Jordan is confronted to an impoverishment of its land in terms of water supply because of declining rainfall. Yet the country is doing significantly better than Syria, by hosting many refugees and providing them with food security, education and healthcare (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2015). The reasons for these significant differences between the two countries are many, but overall, good environmental governance and regional cooperation play a predominant role (Weinthal, Zawahri & Sowers, 2015, p.299).
The main research question of this thesis is formulated as follows: “To what extent is climate change a major factor in the occurrence of violent conflicts in Syria, while Jordan, a comparable country in terms of natural resources, has been less impacted by this change?”. This question involves the comparative analysis of these two countries in terms of impact of climate change, political framework, economy, competition for natural resources and government management of the environment. The analysis of these concepts will be conducted in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period that preceded the emergence of the Syrian conflict until to the most recent developments of 2016. The goal is to analyse why a good environmental management by the State is crucial for the stability of a region severely confronted with climate change. Afterwards, the outcomes of climate change and its consequences will be compared between Syria and Jordan.
Climate change is the most urgent problem faced by humanity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems” (2014). Although various scholars pose a causal link between global warming, climate refugees and the beginning of the Syrian conflict, these studies remain vague on the link between government management of the environment and its security implications (Gleick, 2013; De Châtel, 2014). Climate change poses “multilevel governance challenges” (Huntjens & Nachbar, 2015, p.9). Gaps remain in the literature on the effect of climate change. Particularly, studies addressing simultaneously climate migration and the appearance of conflict are rare. Of course, this thesis is not intended to justify the whole Syrian
conflict through the single issue of climate change. Nevertheless, this planetary turmoil has a strong impact on the Syrian conflict.
The first part of this thesis will aim to gather information regarding climate change and its implication in terms of security. The second part will describe the comparative research design as well as the theory of Robert McLeman about the system linkage between scarcity and conflict (2011), which will form the core analysis of this thesis. This theory provides an innovative framework of analysis, and allows to establish linkages between climate change and conflict in the Middle East. The third part aims to gather factual information regarding Syria and Jordan through a case study. The fourth part is the comparative analysis between Syria and Jordan. Four stages of the theory of Robert McLeman will be used to determine the crucial differences between environmental governance in Syria and in Jordan. Based on this analysis, the last part of this thesis will aim to provide recommendations and future prospects. Overall, this thesis aims to bridge the gap in the literature on the implications of climate change in the Syrian conflict of 2011.
Chapter 2: Literature Review
This chapter will be divided into two parts. In the first section, the implications of the term “climate security” will be described. Then, the main definitions of the term refugee will be detailed to emphasise the role of this group as victim and conflict enabler in the MENA region. Indeed, the word refugee has no standardised definition in international treaties and most of the countries in the Middle-East are not even part of international conventions, leading to uncontrollable population displacement. Furthermore, the issue of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) will be addressed.
2.A. Climate Security
2.A.1. Global Warming
In December 2015, the 21st Conference Of the Parties (COP 21) has received unprecedented media coverage, which shows the growing interest of the public and politicians for the preservation of the environment. Although awareness is now almost unanimous on the planet, the first United Nations (UN) environment conference only took place in 1972. Indeed, the first theory of the greenhouse effect have emerged in the late 18th century. Decades later, two French scientists made the demonstration which upheld the first theory of the greenhouse effect. There followed numerous studies and experiments with alarming results. However, it was not until 1987 that the UN created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to gather a maximum of scientific data on climate change (Collectif Argos, 2009). The creation of this organisation initially brought together scientists independently, but more importantly, it allowed the holding of conventions that have permitted the adoption of a global climate agreement at the end of the COP 21. The 196 parties present have concluded the Paris agreement, which includes diverse horizons to achieve in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Article 2 Paris Agreement
This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change (…), including by:
Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change . 1
Although already concluded, this agreement is not yet in force. First, the 50 countries that produce 55% of global emissions must ratify the agreement.
With technology, the scientific world has observed radical climate changes in the early decades of the 21st century, starting with rising seas. During the 20th century, sea levels rose by 170 millimetres and if nothing is done, sea levels will rise by 31 centimetres by 2100. Various observations also show that the overall global temperature increases since 1880 (Lyons & Reinhard, 2012). This warming has accelerated dramatically since the 70s. Since 2007, record surface temperatures are exceeded annually. While there has been a global surface warming of the planet, it seems that it is the oceans that are charged with absorbing these unusual heat. The consequences for wildlife and marine life seem in irreversible because of the acidification (Brewer & Barry, 2008). According to observations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, 2016), the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are shrinking each year. Arctic gradually disappears. Glaciers around the world are endangered. The snow season is delayed in Europe and elsewhere, iconic glaciers like the snowy summit of Kilimanjaro are disappearing rapidly (Zemp, Nussbaumer, Naegeli, Gärtner-Roer, Paul, Hoelzle & Haeberli, 2013). Also, once exceptional weather events start to become commonplace, evidenced by the numerous hurricanes that hit the United States or droughts ravaging the Middle East and China. Rainfalls also go awry, with increasingly frequent and brutal flooding, even in Europe (IPCC, 2012).
Although often questioned, all these observations are real, and announced a radical change of lifestyle for the human species if nothing is done for the rest of the 21st century (NASA, 2016). A UN Security Council meeting on Climate Change addressed the climate change problem as a “threat multiplier for global security” (Werrel & Femia, 2015). In this context, refugees are central
UN Conference Of the Parties, Adption of the Paris Agreement, 11 December 2015, United Nations, available 1
to the problem to the views of recent reports that although announcing various forecasts, are always alarming, including an inevitable amplification of the influx (UNHCR, 2015).
2.A.2. Security
Baldwin (1997, p.13) defines security as ‘a low probability of damage to acquired values’. In many parts of the world confronted with global warming and rising seas, claims for climate security emerge as populations are forced to leave their homeland. During the COP 21, the president of Kiribati, Beretitenti Anote Tong, made a brilliant speech on climate change as a threat to the entire planet: “For it is not about science, it is not about economics, it is about the survival of this planet - of people, men, women and children, whole communities, cities and nations (…).” However, it is not only the Pacific Islands that are threatened by climate change. Jon Barnett (2003) argues that every community around the world will be affected in one way or another and for this reason, climate change should be treated as a global security problem.
Lester Brown (1977) is the first author to associate impacts of climate change to security problems. His analysis consists primarily of emphasising that climate security cannot be addressed with armed forces like other security problems. Only ambitious and comprehensive policies can respond to this new threat. It was not until 1987 that the UN published his first paper on climate change. Entitled “Our Common Future”, this paper aims to develop a first long-term strategy in order to reach global sustainable development. Later, and because of recurrent violent natural events in different countries, the climate issue has gradually been integrated into national security policies (Barnett, 2003). Also, the UN started to hold Conferences of the Parties, resulting in more or less binding agreements. However, the concept of security was discussed only at the last Conference of the Parties to date, namely that of Paris. The text recognises the impact of climate change on food security. Yet, it makes no link between climate change, scarcity, environmental displaced and the emergence of conflict.
Brown and Crawford (2009, pp. 2-3) argue that climate change presents a security threat in six distinct ways:
• Competition for scarce water resources, complicating peace agreements. • Food insecurity (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 2008). • Hindering of economic growth
• Destabilising forced migration
• Militarisation of strategic natural resources
• Growing resentment and distrust of the West (and Israel) by Arab nations
These six climate security threats are particularly dangerous for developing countries, especially the Middle East–North African (MENA) countries, which must face severe long-lasting droughts since 2006 (De Châtel, 2014, p.12).
2.A.3. Climate security in the MENA region
After the Syrian uprising in 2011, various experts attempted to understand what caused the crisis in a country viewed as stable and immune to protests in the Middle East. The majority of the literature focuses on the phenomenon of the Arab Spring as well as on the demands of freedom and democracy of the Arab people. However, the impact of climate change in the 2011 uprising is only partly addressed.
2.A.3.1 Water stress and the role of climate change in the Syrian uprising
Before the start of Syrian conflict in 2011, many frustrations were already born in the unconscious of the Syrian people. There were ethnic, religious and political tensions, but also environmental tensions, dividing the country between the countryside and the large urban areas. Although the international community has provided alarming reports on the state of Syrian natural resources, this is the political and religious context of an entire region that has mostly focused the attention of the public.
Francesca De Châtel (2014) argues that 50 years of mismanagement of the natural resources of Syria combined with drought and aggressive economic liberalisation through the removal of subsidies for agriculture, has potentially triggered the 2011 uprising. Although climate change may partly explain the crisis, it is necessary to keep in mind the broader picture, which includes various socio-economic causes. Francesca De Châtel emphasises that 50 years of intensive agriculture on fragile lands has depleted soils and groundwater, which led to a growing frustration among the rural community, to the point of creating a humanitarian crisis. However, she points out that the analysis of climate change as a root cause of the Syrian uprising must be taken with caution, since the
al-Assad regime itself desperately tries to invoke external factors to explain the crisis (De Châtel, 2014, p.12). A study made by the GLOWA Jordan River project stresses that the Jordan River basin is one of the most sensitive regions to the effects of climate change (2009). The impacts in terms of resources, human development and politics can be very severe as the world observes numerous crises in the region since the start of the 21st century. Before the start of the conflict in Syria in 2011, the country has experienced its most severe time of drought in the instrumental record between 2006 and 2010 (Kelley, Mohtadi, Cane, Seager, & Kushnir, 2015). In the very arid region of Al Raqqa, the Tigris is gradually drained by Turkey. South west near Damascus, sources of drinking water are scarce. As a result, 1,5 million people had to leave their homes in the countryside and joined larger urban areas in search for freshwater and survival (Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN), 2010). Drought is becoming one of the most urgent concerns in Syria. Freiman and Kadioglu stress that human activity has released large amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere during the second half of the 20th century, leading to global warming and the depletion of natural resources of the Middle East (2007, p. 1). Thus, long-term perspectives for the whole Jordan River basin in terms of desertification are very severe, with longer droughts likely to last several years.
Haddad, Szeles and Zsarnóczai (2013) argue that the “agriculture “self-suffiency” policy in Syria and the misuse of water accelerated the decline of the whole agricultural sector. Although the Syrian government tried to implement new modern techniques of irrigation in cooperation with the FAO, positive results would only last in the medium-term. No long-term realistic plan has been envisioned for a sustainable agriculture in Syria. In addition, the Syrian government has never thought to tax water at its fair value in order to motivate farmers to consume water with caution. As evidenced by Faour and Fayad (2014), the impact of war affects the entire country. The war amplifies the problems related to water and induces population displacement. Furthermore, war provokes a decrease in the management of natural resources, which increases general pollution and deterioration of modern irrigation infrastructure. Also, water prices peaked before and during the war, as accessibility to natural resources becomes dangerous.
Although these various scientific articles highlight poor water management in Syria, the authors remain very cautious about the potential link between the general deterioration of access to water and the appearance of the conflict in 2011. Moreover, Francesca De Châtel calls for prudence in her
article since it could advantage the al-Assad regime. However, by taking into account socio-economic factors and comparing environmental governance between Syria and a neighbouring country, a link will be established between scarcity and conflict.
2.A.3.2. Water stress and the role of climate change in Jordan
During the Arab Spring, Jordan has not experienced a broad protest movement. Unlike Syria, the government has managed to contain the few protests by promulgating cosmetic reforms. While Jordan also had problems in terms of religion, ethnicity and environment, Jordanians continue to live in peace in a region devastated by war. In response to these cosmetic reforms, protest movements are starting to become increasingly important, especially among young people (Beck & Hüser, 2015, p.95).
Jordan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world but benefits from water access rate close to 100%. In a project funded by the European Union, Hosny Khordagui and Vangelis Constantianos (2014, p.92) stress that “due to the semi-arid climate, compounded with high population growth rates, water scarcity in Jordan has become of permanent nature and water resources overstressed”. Between the years 2002 and 2011, Jordan has experienced six years of drought. Between 2007 and 2008, the country suffered extreme drought (Khordagui & Constantianos, 2014, pp.93-94). In addition to an increase in the frequency of droughts, the country is also experiencing more severe and frequent floods since the start of the 21st century. In 2013, extreme floods hit the Jordanian territory. As a result, refugee camps were destroyed and many agricultural lands were flooded. Muwaffaq Freiwan and Mikdat Kadioglu are two meteorological experts from Jordan and Turkey. In their article “Climate variability in Jordan”, data analysis in various weather stations in Jordan since 1986 reveals that “the days are becoming somewhat warmer, and the nights are becoming more warm in the Jordan Valley” (2008). Regarding precipitation, there is no significant decreasing trend, except in the southwest of the country near the Dead Sea. The Dead Sea is not only a prominent tourist activity in the kingdom, but it is also a supplier of a wide variety of commodities. The increased intensity and frequency of droughts in the region forces Jordan to use drastic means to ensure its economical activity (Asmar & Ergenzinger, 2004).
Thus, various local and Western experts demonstrate climatic urgency in Jordan and Syria. The comparative analysis will describe present and future plans undertaken by the kingdom of Jordan to tackle the security impacts of environmental changes. Thereby and in addition to the analysis of socio-economic factors, the thesis will aim to bridge the gap in the literature on the security impacts of environmental changes in the MENA region.
2.B. Refugee: a term with multiple definitions
This section aims to gather the main interpretations of the term refugee through the analysis of different international treaties. Although climate security forms the basic approach of this thesis, the human factor plays a predominant role. As described in the case study below, many Syrian people are forced to flee their home because of climate change and mismanagement of natural resources. Moreover, there are an increasing number of people who are fleeing from precarious living conditions in the countryside to bigger cities or countries. Although very similar in terms of location, ethnicity and climate vulnerability, Jordan is viewed as a good host country for refugees in comparison with Syria, which does not provide aid to refugees and internally displaced persons. The comparative analysis of this thesis highlights the need for countries in the MENA region to participate actively in the following conventions.
2.B.1. The 1951 Refugee Convention
The Convention on the Status of Refugees describes a refugee as a person who left his country of residence because of a political, religious or racial reason, and does not benefit, in the country where he resides, the same status as indigenous people, which it has not acquired citizenship.
As a result of events occurring before 1 January 1951 and owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of
his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it . 2
Unlike asylum based on legal practices of ancient customs, it was not until 1951 and the Convention
on the Status of Refugees that the status was legally recognised. This Convention was originally
held in the aftermath of World War II in Geneva under the supervision the UN to address the influx of people displaced during the war. The 1951 Convention aims to specify who is a refugee, it establishes the rights of asylum seekers, and the responsibilities of States that gives asylum. In 1967 a new protocol modifies this Convention in order to expand it in time and in space. Indeed, the 1951 Convention used to restrict the refugee status to only displaced people before 1951 and was mainly focused on Europe.
However, the definition of United Nations merely states the type of individuals which qualifies for the refugee status, and does not emphasise ‘the right to be received’ neither. Thus, the States retain much prerogative to decide who has the right to be received in its land (Penchaszah, 2010). The 1951 Convention lists five different reasons for persecution: race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion. Today, these 5 limits are out of context given the current challenges of the Third World, which is facing violence, massive exodus, economical difficulties, but also severe effects of global warming. Extreme poverty, lack of basic conditions of subsistence and climate change are current reasons of mass displacement but are not yet considered by the Convention of the Office of the UNHCR. Therefore, different parts of the world have decided to issue their own definition.
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.B.2. The Organisation of African Unity (OAU)
The Organisation of African Unity is an intergovernmental organisation, which was created and headed by the Emperor of Ethiopia Haile Selassie in 1963 and dissolved in 2002 to make way for the African Union. The OAU Convention on Governing the specific aspects of refugee problems in Africa reproduces the definition of the Geneva Convention, but it widens to almost any endangerment interpretation possible and imaginable in its Article 2:
UN General Assembly, Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, 28 July 1951, United Nations, Treaty Series, 2
The term “refugee” shall also apply to every person who, owing to external aggression, occupation, foreign domination or events seriously disturbing public order in either part or the whole of his country of origin or nationality, is compelled to leave his place of habitual residence in order to seek refuge in another place outside his country of origin or nationality . 3
This Convention follows the myriad problems faced by African countries after coming out of colonialism. It was intended to set out standards to be respected by every African country when receiving refugees. This Convention was intended to fill the gap faced by many African refugees fleeing instability in their region induced by decolonisation (Moses Okello, 2014).
The definition of the 1951 Convention assumes that a refugee is a person who has suffered damage because of specific characteristics based on race, religion, political opinion… The definition of the
OAU Convention is much more comprehensive. It does not comment on specific criteria but rather
on the harmful consequence and the objective situation of a particular country. Events seriously disturbing public order, regardless of their nature, are reason enough to seek refuge and thus obtain refugee status. In the African context, “Events seriously disturbing public order” can refer to political problems (colonialism, ethnic conflicts) but also for other reasons such as economic and ecological problems (famine, drought) (Rwelamira, 1959, p.557). This momentum was short-lived. Today, African countries are often hit by terrorism or ethnic conflicts and prefer to secure their borders. African solidarity has crumbled against the new threats of globalisation and terrorism (Moses Okello, 2014). However, the OAU Convention managed to address the problem in a comprehensive way by focusing on the reasons that can push an individual to seek refuge in a foreign country (whether this reason is political, economical or ecological).
2.B.3. The Council of Europe and the European Union
In Europe, individual countries have their own legislation regarding the problem of refugees, in addition to the Geneva Convention of 1951. In Belgium for example, the right of asylum is aimed at people covered by the Geneva Convention. In addition, the Belgian Parliament added that people who are at risk of suffering serious harm by returning to their country of origin are also entitled to
OAU Convention. Governing the specific aspects of refugee problems in Africa, Addis-Abada, 10 September 1969, 3
claim asylum. Depending on the situation, Belgium provides a list of countries considered as dangerous. A refugee cannot be returned to his country if it is on this list. Thus, the right to asylum in Belgium is in danger. Indeed, the list of dangerous countries may be updated by a minister, leaving a dangerous power of interpretation of the law (CIRE, 2015).
However, European countries have never adopted a comprehensive and continental approach to the refugee issue, even though the continent is facing a massive influx of refugees since 2003 and the start of the war in Iraq. The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) contains no provision specifically devoted to refugees. Nevertheless, Article 3 of the Convention states that: “No one shall be subjected to torture, inhuman or degrading treatment.” Implicitly, Article 3 extends the scope of the 1951 Convention, prohibiting the return of anyone to a country where there is a real risk for that person to be subjected to torture, inhuman or degrading punishment or treatment. It is forbidden for members of the Council of Europe to send someone back to a country where there is such a risk. Apart from this article, Article 2 concerning the right to life, as well as Article 6 and the right of a fair trial can be useful for protection in a member State of the ECHR (Council of Europe, 2013).
From a legal standpoint, very few cases relating to forced returns of refugees are treated by the Strasbourg Court. However, the question of applicability of Article 3 in case of extradition or deportation was solved in the case of Soering v. the United Kingdom. The United States of America asked for the extradition of Soering in order to apply death penalty. However, the European Court of Human Rights stressed that the United Kingdom needed to interpret Article 3 in its broadest sense. No more specific treaty was therefore necessary (Mole, 2000). Regarding refugees, it appears that the Court's answer is similar. In 2012, Italy was condemned by the Court after intercepting Eritreans at sea. Afterwards, the Italian authorities have forcibly returned them to Libya, an unstable country (Council of Europe, 2013).
Since the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union features the Charter of
Fundamental Rights. This common and legally binding Charter includes two useful measures for
the protection of people about to be dismissed from a member country. Article 18 guarantees the right of asylum on the basis of the 1951 Convention of Geneva. Article 19 prohibits collective expulsions and deportation to a risky country on the basis of Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights.
No one may be removed, expelled or extradited to a State where there is a serious risk that he or she would be subjected to the death penalty, torture or other inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment . 4
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.B.4. Internally displaced persons
As mentioned above, the theme of refugee enjoys special attention when it comes to people forced to leave their country. However, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) did not receive the same attention from the international community until recently. According to the Article 1 of the African
Union Convention for the protection and assistance of internally displaced persons in Africa
(Kampala Convention, UNHCR, 2009), internally displaced persons are:
People or groups of people who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalised violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognised State border.
IDPs are persons who have not crossed a border to seek refuge and are thus on the run in their home country. The situation of IDPs is particularly problematic. Due to various circumstances, IDPs are forced to remain under the authority of its government, even if the government is directly responsible of this type of population displacement within its country. Thus, IDPs are very vulnerable and difficult to protect. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC, 2014), 38 million of people were considered as internally displaced in 2014. Moreover, 6.5 million of people were considered as internally displaced in Syria, placing the country on the top of the IDMC ranking (IDMC, 2015). According to the annual monitoring of the IDMC, internally displaced people largely outnumber refugees crossing internationally recognised State borders. Yet, there is no international convention which formally recognises this group of persons.
Council of Europe, European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, as amended by 4
Protocols Nos. 11 and 14, 4 November 1950, ETS 5, available from http://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/ Convention_ENG.pdf
2.B.5. Internally displaced persons and the problem of environmental refugees
In the case of Syria, IDPs are running from a hostile climate, which prevents them to ensure their survival. Various authors and international organisations support the recognition of the status of environmental refugees, especially for the people from Africa and the MENA region (IOM, 2009 ; Mayer, 2011 ; Raleigh, Jordan & Salehyan, 2008). Given that neither IDPs nor environmental refugees are recognised by international treaties, this thesis defines environmental refugees as:
Persons or groups of persons who, for sudden or progressive changes in the environment caused by climate change and greenhouse gas emissions induced by humans that adversely affect their lives or living conditions are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad . 5
As evidenced by the chapter of analysis below, the drought in Syria and the mismanagement of the water by the State undoubtedly pushed many rural people to flee their homes in search for clean water. Furthermore, the lack of the legal framework on IDPs and environmental refugee has left these populations under the yoke of the government of Bashar al-Assad, given rise to four consequences that may have a predominant role in the appearance of the Syrian civil war: competition over resources, loss of confidence against government policies, ethnic divisions and migration from rural to urban areas (Withagen, 2014).
2.B.6. Conclusion
It is necessary to give the widest and most liberal interpretation possible to the refugee concept. Indeed, the definition of the 1951 Refugee Convention is too restrictive regarding new political, economical and ecological challenges, leaving many suitors for refugees’ status with no legal tool to assert their human dignity. Furthermore, internally displaced persons do not benefit from the same attention than refugees crossing internationally recognised State border. There is no international convention that recognises internally displaced persons. This legal vacuum poses many risks to displaced populations, especially in countries exposed to severe environmental and political changes.
Adapted climate refugee definition (IOM, 2009)
These limitations imply many challenges for displaced people. Some will be swung from one country to the other, or even from one continent to another, whenever confronted with different approaches often hostile to their fate. This thesis will attempt to speak of refugees in very liberal terms, considering them as people forced to flee because of objectively intolerable conditions of life in their living area or in their country of origin. Therefore, the definition of the OAU Convention is the one adopted here, thanks to the rich interpretation that may be made of the expression “events seriously disturbing public order”. Furthermore, special attention will be dedicated to internally displaced persons throughout the Syrian case.
Chapter 3: Social Research Method
This thesis aims to conduct a social research on the link between climate change, environmental governance and conflict in the Middle East. In addition to the research questions, the following sections describe what type of social research will be conducted, and explains the theory used to carry out the analysis of the Syrian and the Jordan cases.
3.A. Research questions
“To what extent is climate change a major factor in the occurrence of violent conflicts in Syria, while Jordan, a comparable country in terms of natural resources, has been less impacted by this change?”
The following sub-questions will help answer to the main question:
“How the concept of climate change is defined by the literature and the international community?” “What are the effects of climate change on populations in the MENA region?”
“What are the different human, cultural, economic and political resources in Syria and Jordan?”
This thesis can be divided into two main parts. The first part will provide factual information to answer the three sub-questions. This way, a solid background based on history, ethnicity, migrations, culture, economy and politics will be produced. In order to comprehensively analyse Syria and Jordan, it is crucial to look at the whole picture, and especially at the political context of the last decade. Furthermore, this background will help to determine how climate change has modified the situation for people living in MENA countries. The second part of this thesis will answer the main research question through the analysis of every factual information provided in the case study. Based on the framework of analysis described below, the analysis chapter aims to follow a clear one direction structure. Links between climate change, scarcity, competition for resources, governance and conflict will be analysed in order to answer the main research question on the basis of a specific framework of analysis.
The factual information combined with the analysis of the security impacts of climate change in Syria and Jordan will help to answer the main research question.
3.B. Framework of analysis and operationalisation
The framework of analysis will be based on Robert McLeman system linkage between scarcity and conflict (2011). In their article “Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa”, Oli Brown, Anne Hammill and Robert McLeman developed a system linkage between the lack of natural resources and conflict (2007). In 2011, this theory was updated by Robert McLeman in order to introduce the critical notion of climate change.
Figure 1: Adapted scarcity-conflict scenario (McLeman, 2011, p. 27)
On Figure 1, the link between scarcity and violent conflict is established. There would then be a link between the search for scarce natural resources and the emergence of conflicts in the Middle East. In views of these associations, this analysis seems the most appropriate to study the impact of environmental governance and climate change in recent conflicts.
The analysis will aim to focus first on the scarcity-conflict scenario in Syria. In the theoretical framework, the notion of refugee is largely addressed. Indeed, climate change cannot be taken as a sole cause while applying this scenario to a comparative case study. The human factor plays a predominant role.
The scarcity-conflict scenario is based on one single root cause: climate change. Each concept developed by Robert McLeman is studied in light of natural resources and human development. The flowchart includes successive steps, meaning that each stage is induced by the previous. In this scheme, a population is dependent upon a particular natural resource endangered by climate change. Scarcity causes imbalance between population and livelihoods, which provokes competition. Afterwards, the appearance of a conflict depends on the power of the country's institutions and its ability to cope with the crisis. Violent conflict forms the last stage of this chart, causing a feedback loop towards scarcity. In this crucial part of the scenario, Robert McLeman stresses that the emergence of conflicts further impoverishes country's resources (2011, p.25). As mentioned, the scientific community regularly proves that climate change is real. However, the information on a potential relation between climate change, climate migration, environmental governance and violence is rare. In this context, environmentally and internally displaced persons occupy a central role as victims but also as conflict enablers. To the views of environmental governance as well as internal and external massive population movements that scene from Syria, the hypothesis developed in the article “Climate change, migration and critical international security considerations” will be tested to see its applicability and implications in terms of security (McLeman, 2011). Above all, the important role of good environmental governance and refugees will be highlighted.
In order to answer the main research question, four key concepts of the theory developed by Robert McLeman (2011) will be analysed. The link between climate change and scarcity will be first studied to understand the impacts of environmental change on countries with limited resources already. Then, the competitive aspect will be developed. A competition between human beings to meet their most basic needs in term of water supply. The environmental policy and State institutions resilience will then be assessed. Finally, the conflict caused by these previous indicators and the feedback effect will be explained.
The main research question of this thesis is related to the security impacts of environmental changes. As mentioned, this thesis will use the scarcity-conflict theory developed by McLeman (2011) in order to analyse the effects of this theory in Syria before the conflict of 2011 and in Jordan. According to this theory, there are four main stages which are used to conceptualise the security impacts of environmental changes: water scarcity, competition, institutional breakdown and violent conflict. This conceptualisation is explained in the table below through the use of definitions and indicators related to the two cases of this thesis.
Theory Concepts Definition Indicators
Security impacts of environmental changes
Water Scarcity The inability of water resources to meet water demands
(Veldkamp, Wada, Aerts and Ward, 2016)
Drought
Competition “Competition is an interaction between organisms or species, in which the fitness of one is lowered by the presence of another. Limited supply of at least one resource (such as food, water and territory) used by both can be a factor”. (Biology: How life Works, 2016)
Population displacement Disputes over water
Institutional Breakdown “Today States must fulfil their citizens’ aspirations for inclusion and
development and also carry out a constellation of interrelated functions”. (Clare Lockhart, 2008)
Loss of legitimacy of the national government
Violent Conflict “A violent conflict involves at least two parties using physical force to resolve competing claims or interests. Violent conflicts may occur among individuals or groups not affiliated with a government, but the term is most commonly applied as a synonym for war. At whatever level it occurs, a violent conflict usually involves more than one confrontation.” (Jacob Shively) Ethnic conflict Civil war Water war
3.
C. Research design
The theme of climate change and its potential linkage to conflicts in the Middle East is already addressed by several authors mentioned above, but remains strongly debated. In view of the policy vacuum, the qualitative approach which generates an inductive methodology is best suited to bring out new theories from observations and interactions in the social world (Bryman, 2012, p.380). Through a comparison between two similar countries in many ways (climate, localisation, ethnicities), but different in terms of economy and politics and results, data will emerge and then be analysed to produce recommendations on how to deal with climate change in emerging countries. In this social research, the epistemological position of ‘interpretivist’ is preferred in order to understand the social world through the analysis and the interpretation of climate change. Similarly, this approach is constructivist because it aims not only to analyse climatic events and their consequences, but to analyse the internal and external social interactions of the group of refugees and their roles in recent conflicts in the Middle East (Bryman, 2012, p.33). Generalities about Syria and Jordan as well as factual information on the links between climate change and conflict in the Middle East will be given at the beginning of Chapter 4.
3.C.1. Methodology
Climate change is viewed as a threat multiplier (Huntjens & Nachbar, 2015). As mentioned above, the impact in terms of meteorology are increasingly visible around the world. These changes directly threaten the human species. In Bangladesh for example, the population is in serious danger because of rising seas. In the Middle East, more frequent droughts push entire populations to leave their homes to find new livelihoods. These people can move from one country to another to find the means of subsistence, but often travel within their country, resulting in a competition for natural resources and violence in large urban areas if the State cannot respond effectively to the influx. To analyse the climate change phenomenon, a comparative analysis between the management of these changes in Syria and Jordan is conducted below. While Syria and Jordan are two very similar countries in terms of location, natural resources and even ethnic groups, the impacts of climate change in the two countries are totally different, evidenced by the war in Syria and the stability of Jordan. A comparative design is indicated and viewed as a design that “entails studying two contrasting cases using more or less identical methods” (Bryman, 2012, p.72). In order to better apprehend the social phenomenon that is currently taking place in Syria, it is better to compare it
with one other case which presents similar characteristics, but also crucial differences. Thus, a most different case study design confronting Syria and Jordan, two countries very close in terms of climate, localisation and ethnicities, is best suited to understand deficiencies of the Syrian system. Multiple case study improves theory building and allows to determine strong causality linkages. This particular multiple case study based on differences between Syria and Jordan will aim to examine the effect of a specific factor of interest in order to establish a causal link between climate change and the appearance of conflict. Thus climate change will form the independent variable while conflict will form the dependent variable. At the end of the results, two flowcharts will be constructed in order to link the independent variable and the dependent variable. The most different cases approach will be then justified since each dependent variables will present crucial differences. Although this thesis focuses on this specific causal link, the analysis does not aim to explain the 2011 Syrian conflict in light of this sole relationship. The start of this conflict is a complex mix of different causes such as politics, ideologies and ethnicities (De Châtel, 2014). However, climate change is viewed as a conflict enabler by many authors cited below. National as well as international organisations also point out the violent outcomes resulting from climate change. Thus, this thesis will narrow the scope to one single cause by emphasising the importance and the numerous consequences of other factors such as environmental governance and climate migration.
Through this analysis, several units will be observed in each country. The geographical unit will have a predominant role. Two countries are compared but also regions within these two countries and more specifically the gap between towns and countryside. Moreover, the impact of decolonisation and the Arab Spring will be addressed in each country. These political events are crucial to understand the stability of a regime. The policy evaluation unit will also be compared to highlight what has been done by both countries to tackle the threat of climate change and drought. Thus, the modes of comparison are plural since the analysis aims to compare two countries that have made choices to counter a threat variable in its spatial and temporal scope. Although all these units of observation are crucial to apprehend the way climate change has more or less impacted Syria and Jordan, this thesis uses the theory of Robert McLeman on climate change as a threat multiplier (2011). Economic, political and geographical matters will all be analysed in the light of climate change and security implications.
3.C.2. Data collection methods
In order to collect data on the issue of climate change, several methods are used. The first is the research of empirical data. To begin, the data of the IPCC will be valuable information. Indeed, several conferences and debates took place on the theme of climate change within the UN. Other international organisations such as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Food Programme (WFP), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) provide valuable data’s and models to attest the impact of climate change on natural resources in the Mediterranean region as well as reports on refugees’ movements. Also, various authors are known for their academic work on climate change in the Jordan River basin such as Francesca de Châtel for Syria and Muwaffaq Freiwan for Jordan. They are both well-known authors for their work on the linkage between climate change and conflict in the Middle East. Many studies flourish in academic circles because of the climate emergency, but mainly because of the recent war in Syria. Regarding internet, key words will be linked together in order to narrow the study of Syria and Jordan. Thus, key words such as ‘climate change’, ‘Syria’, ‘conflict’ will directly orientate the case study towards right authors and reports on the issue of climate security in the MENA region. Moreover, key words such as ‘internally displaced persons’ and ‘environmental refugee’ are already very specific. The use of these words on the internet allows to directly access internationally recognised treaties or studies on the matters. This thesis aims to explain a succession of events which began in 2003 and the start of the war in Iraq as well as the start of longer periods of droughts until the year 2016 and the ongoing civil war in Syria. Thus, most of the data’s, articles and studies that are used will cover this specific period of time. Only some older articles will be used to emphasise history and political changes. The triangulation method is indicated in order to analyse data sources, several observers and various theories (Bryman, 2012, p.392). Thus, this thesis will always validate every datas’ using a cross referencing system. As mentioned above, several types of sources will be used to check every factual information. Most of the documents used are secondary sources that discuss and analyse historical and meteorological observations made during the last decade. However, field observations from Francesca de Châtel and various meteorological experts will provide highly valuable primary sources and an innovative insight on the ongoing Syrian civil war.
Chapter 4: Case Study and analysis
In this section, two comprehensive case studies will be conducted on factual information regarding history, ethnic fragmentation, internal and external refugees, economy as well as the political framework political framework of Syria and Jordan. Moreover, this information will be directly analysed in the light of the climate security aspect through the analysis of climate changes in the MENA region and environmental governance. Although these two countries are geographically close, many differences appear regarding climate change and its effects. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992):
"Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
The following case studies and analysis aim to use the UNFCCC definition from a security point of view by considering climate change as a threat multiplier in the MENA region. All information given below come from open sources, the press, academic studies as well as from expertise on water issues and weather events in the Middle East.
4.A. Syria
4.A.1. Case Study
In Syria, the conflict between the regime of Bashar al-Assad and various factions already lasted for five years and made hundreds of thousands of victims. This conflict is the result of a complex mix of social, cultural, religious but also climate factors (De Châtel, 2014). Whether it is the forces of the regime, the moderate groups like the Free Syrian Army or the self-proclaimed Islamic State, all are fighting for access to scarce country's natural resources.
The modern history of Syria begins at the end of the First World War, after a long domination of the Ottoman Empire. It was not until 1945 that the country gained independence, quickly challenged by the unification between Egypt and Syria. However, this union will be short. In 1961, a coup
organised by the Ba'ath Party and Hafez al-Assad will mark the rest of the country's history until today (BBC, 2016).
There are over 18 million of people in Syria divided into several ethnic groups (Khalifa, 2013, pp. 3-4).
• The Sunni Muslim population with the many Kurds and Turkmen makes up the largest ethnic group with a presence estimated at 70%. The Sunni population is distributed throughout Syrian territory, with an important presence in the countryside.
• Shia Muslims form the second largest ethnic group in the country, about 15% of the population. The Shiite populations include Alawites, ethnicity of the al-Assad family and the regime in place since 1961. The Shiite population is mainly concentrated near Damascus, as well as near the seafront in the north of Lebanon.
• Kurds make up 10% of the population and live mainly in the north of the country
• The third ethnic group is Christian, with an occupancy of 10% among the Syrian population and is mixed among the Muslim population in large urban areas such as Damascus, Homs and Aleppo.
• The last ethnic group is the one of the Druzes, that mixes different faiths like Judaism and Christianity.
Although the Ba’ath regime has shared power with the Syrian Sunni group in past governments, the al-Assad regime has always ensured to keep the coercive power within their Ba’ath political family in order to form a unitary dominant-party. This retention of coercive power to the only Alawite ethnicity has caused a loss of legitimacy among the Syrian population, and at the same time, revived tensions between Sunnis and Shiites as well as between Kurdish and Arabs (Goldsmith, 2016, pp. 138-141). In 1978, a first bloody repression took place between the regime and an Islamist insurrection. In the city of Hama, the Muslim Brotherhood led an uprising against the regime, but was stopped by the annihilation of entire neighbourhoods and the killing of thousands of innocent people (BBC, 2016). Although this first altercation between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Alawite power did not directly translate into a deeper ideological split, areas hit by the violence of the attack started to denigrate the power, especially in the education of the young people (Saouli, 2015, p.322). In a country with a Sunni majority but dominated by an ethnic minority class, sectarianism displayed by the al-Assad regime has a strong impact in the unconscious Sunni youth.
On the other hand, the fear of losing power locks the dominant minority into a very harmful paranoia for running the country. Disproportionate use of violence of the al-Assad regime killed thousands and marked the beginning of a severe authoritarian regime. In addition to these ethnic divisions, the international geopolitical context surrounding Syria since the end of the Cold War has created a deep identity crisis within the country. Although heavily influenced by Russia, Syria opened to its neighbours and the Western world after the Cold War, making impossible alliance games. The father of Bashar al-Assad has advocated a policy of appeasement in the international arena by opening dialogue with the West (BBC, 2016). Thus, the country is now under the yoke of various influences. Iran is supporting the regime against Israel and the Sunnis of the self proclaimed Islamic State, Russia wants to continue its trade with Syria and is still locked in a bipolar mentality of the Cold War, and the US is trying somehow to ensure the stability of the region, divided between ethnic and partisan struggles. In addition, and as evidenced below, movements of internal and external refugees add pressure on the country.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the Middle East is hit by repeated wars, pushing many people to flee to neighbouring countries in search of livelihood. Furthermore, competition between farmers increases in the Syrian countryside due to lack of water (Almohamed & Doppler, 2008, p. 82). In addition, many people were forced to leave their homes because of the drought which is hitting Syria since 2006. This results in massive population movements towards and within Syria. These internally displaced persons (IDPs) converge in urban areas which are unable to offer basic services to the population because of overcrowding. Since 2003, Iraq is an unstable country because of the chaos left behind after the removal of Saddam Hussein and the endless battle for power between Sunnis and Shiites (Bazán, 2008). More recently, the self-proclaimed Islamic State got hold of Mosul and a large part of Iraq. All these events have caused many civilians to seek refuge in neighbouring Syria (Bazán, 2008). This choice is explained by the historically close relations between the two countries, but also by the porous border between the two countries. Indeed, there is no real border between the two countries, but just a vast desert. Although Syria has opened its doors to Iraqi refugees, the country is not part of the 1951 Refugee Convention, leaving the Syrian State total freedom of interpretation on the rights of these new communities in Syria (al-Miqdad, 2008). However, the Syrian government has attempted to integrate these populations to the Syrian population, including by giving them access to free health care and education. During the first Iraqi refugee crisis in 2005, the Syrian government gave the opportunity to Iraqis to integrate the society
by giving them work permit as well as other benefits mentioned above. Nonetheless, the problems generated are many according to the UNHCR (Hoffmann, 2016, p.351).
Figure 3: Estimated Number of Displaced
Iraqis in the Middle East (Doraï, 2008).
The UNHCR estimated that nearly 1.2 million Iraqis have fled to Syria in 2007. These Iraqi refugees are mostly Christians and Shiites, because of the strong presence of these religious communities in Syria. Most of these Iraqis have taken refuge in Damascus, making it one of the largest groups of urban refugees in the Middle East (Figure 3) (Doraï, 2008). The influx of Iraqi refugees has had a direct impact on food prices and that of water, which increased significantly. Also, the unemployment rate has skyrocketed. These refugees are mostly a burden to the Syrian government, which is unable to provide work in an already precarious economic context. Although health care is free in public hospitals, the arrival of many refugees in Damascus caused a serious crisis in the sector, which is starved of resources. About education, the problems are the same. UNHCR noted that at least 100 schools should be built to educate newcomers. These observations were conducted by the UN in 2007, a time when already, the Syrian government was warned but unable to cope with the huge investments required. Thus, the government had no choice but to limit the arrival of Iraqis imposing $50 entry fees to any refugees (Dewachi, 2009). The little support from the Syrian government and the utter helplessness of UNHCR in Syria have created many ghettos in the suburbs of the Syrian capital, mingling Syrian refugees of the Golan, Palestinians and Iraqis. The area including most of Iraqis is the one of Jaramana, which was entirely appropriate by this population, leaving the government powerless to poverty and rising crime (Dewachi, 2009). The government's inability to assimilate these people poses great challenges to the country's economy.
In addition to Iraqi refugees, internally displaced persons within Syria form a much greater threat. In 2011, the beginning of the conflict and a new severe drought have pushed millions of Syrians to leave their homes. The UN estimates that this year alone, nearly one million Syrians were plunged
into food insecurity. In total, there are more than one and a half million farmers and their families who have been forced to join larger urban centres in Syria in order to find the necessary resources for their subsistence (Gleick, 2013). As mentioned above, the water supply system of Damascus and Raqqa already showed its weaknesses in 2006 at the beginning of the long drought. With the massive internal displacement in 2011, there are additional hundreds of thousands of poor people who also claimed their right to employment and drinking water in these urban centres. The protest against the Syrian regime was born from this growing frustration, both in smaller towns where agriculture is the primary economy, than in large urban centres, in which the influx of IDPs has given rise to new competitions around freshwater supply (Femia & Werell, 2013).
Economy of Syria is based on four main sectors. The exploitation of oil and gas resources of the country is the main economic commodity. Tourism is then the most beneficial sector. Finally, agriculture and industry are the last two of the most productive economic sectors.
Syria was largely spared by the global financial crisis of 2008. Unlike many MENA countries, tourism has continued to increase and the GDP growth was not severely impacted. Furthermore, thanks to the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement and increased trade between Syria and the EU, the future of the Syrian economy was quite encouraging in 2010 to views of the new opportunities to cope with the decline of the oil industry. However, Syria has encouraged foreign companies to invest in the Syrian energy market, which resulted in new discovery of oil wells in 2010. Also, some golf countries began to invest in the construction sector in Damascus, although the city already reaches its limits in terms of space and population (Haddad, 2011). Besides the energy and the construction markets, tourism forms 11% of GDP. For example, Syria has welcomed more than 6 million tourists in 2009. Until 2011, the attraction of tourists to cultural wealth of the country has not decreased, while neighbouring countries have experienced a decrease in number of tourists due to the instability of the region. Regarding agriculture, the situation is catastrophic. The majority of water supplies is drying up in the country, causing massive abandonment of many rural villages. Ambitious environmental reforms are necessary but fraudulent relationships between State and business in Syria make progress in the matter almost impossible. The Syrian industry is a damaged sector. Because of declining oil reserves and Chinese imports of textiles, Syrian industry is encountering great difficulty. Although the effects of the global economic crisis of 2008 have been rather limited in Syria, the industry is in poor condition and is marked by a massive decrease of domestic demand for most industrial products (Haddad, 2011, p.52). The public sector is the first
