Sink or Swim
A research on how the climate related migration in southern Bangladesh affects the employment rate of the inhabitants of the slums of Dhaka
Emma Pennings Business Administration 10756213
Jason Evenden Planning 10773568
Lotte Kortbeek Political Science 10712852
Amber Mulder Earth Science 10771263
Course: Interdisciplinary Project Expert Supervisor: Kenneth Rijsdijk
Tutor: Roosmarijn Bakker
Date: 11/12/2016
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Abstract
Bangladesh is facing the effects of climate change due to level rise (SLR) and sea-surface temperature (SST) rise. In Bangladesh 80 per cent of the population is exposed to flood risk, including riverine and marine floodings. The area at the highest risk is the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), which lies within ten meters above sea level. Due to these environmental hazards people lose their income source in the rural areas and have an urge for livelihood. Consequently, there is an ongoing large flow of refugees from southern Bangladesh to Dhaka. In this interdisciplinary research, it will be investigated how the climate related migration in southern Bangladesh affects the employment rate of the inhabitants of the slums of Dhaka. This will be examined by the extrapolation of data to prepare a composition of a business-as-usual scenario for the year 2050 through a literature review. When looking at a future scenario for 2050 for the development of the employment rate in Dhaka, the trend of unemployment in the formal sector increases. Increased flood damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements will occur, even as an increase of heat related human mortality and drought related water and food shortage. Consequently, it is estimated that in 2050 85% of the slums inhabitants are climate refugees. With the available data it is not possible to determine the exact employment rate. However, the informal sector will take up the majority of the working force. The informal sector will start to have more and more traits from the formal sector, due to its large size. The city’s economy will not expand similar to the population growth, leaving many inhabitants jobless. The pressure on the labour market of Dhaka will severely increase, which will be exacerbated by the easy access to the informal sector of Dhaka. The biggest challenges depicted for Bangladesh and Dhaka are to cope with the increasing amount of climate migrants.
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Content
Introduction 3
Theoretical Framework 5
Push and pull factors of rural-urban migration 5
Climatological causes for the migration 5
Employment potentials and problems 8
Planological theories and the role of institutional systems 9 Urban Governance of Dhaka and the role of NGO-GO partnerships 11
Integration of the perceived push and pull factors 12
Methodology 13
Climate 13
Demographics 14
Employment 14
Results: a scenario for the year 2050 14
Conclusion 16 Discussion 17 Recommendations 18 Policy recommendations 19 Research recommendations 19 References 20
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Introduction
Global warming has begun changing the environment on earth and the first effects are becoming much clearer since the start of the 20th century (Easterling et al., 2000). Rising sea levels and extreme weather circumstances, two major consequences of global warming, are affecting regions that are equal to sea level or slightly above. Most of these regions are deltaic areas. People are migrating from their homes, farms and environments, which affects the food security, access to natural drinking water and the overall livelihood of people (UNHCR, 2009). By these developments, the number of world’s climate refugees rises, whom are migrating from their original homes due to flooding and salinization of agricultural land due to rising sea levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) already noted in 1990 one of the biggest impacts of climate change would be human migration, since the attack of changing weather conditions can be disastrous to certain sensitive living areas (IPCC, 1990).
Bangladesh is one of those countries that is already feeling the effects of climate change rapidly (Fig 1 and 2). The region which is most vulnerable is known as the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), which is the coastal region that is approximately ten meters above sea level. Ten meters seems like a high level, however not only the rising sea level is a threat. Salinized groundwater, extreme weather circumstances and denser populated areas are also affecting this area. In 2000 there were 63 million Bangladeshi living in the LECZ, which is alarming when realised this part of the population potentially needs to be reallocated (Neumann, Vafeidis, Zimmermann & Nicholls, 2015). Scenarios of the IPCC point out that 15 to 18 million people in Bangladesh will be affected if the sea level rises to respectively 1 and 1.5 metres (UNEP, 2008). Due to the relatively poor livelihoods, and the capacity constraints for travelling, of these people this reallocation can only happen on a local to regional scale (Demeny, 1975).
Since 2009, one person each second has been displaced by a disaster, with annually a total of 22.5 million people displaced by climate or weather related circumstances since 2008 (UNHCR, 2009). Around 60% of the inhabitants of Bangladesh are indirectly or directly dependent on the agricultural sector, and due to the effects of climate change like sea-level rise and cyclones the arable land deteriorates (Hassaini-Mahmooei & Parris, 2012). This mostly triggers the rural urban migration (RUM) process in Bangladesh, a global trend which is nowadays (2016) mostly severe in Asian countries. In recent years, due to the RUM, the cities of Bangladesh are experiencing one of the biggest urbanization rates in the world (Jahan, 2012). The city with the biggest urbanisation rate is the capital, Dhaka. According to the centre of Urban studies (2006) the number of migrants that end up in the slums of Dhaka has grown by two million between 1996 and 2005 (Anwer, 2012). The density of the slums is intense (220.246 people per square kilometer), about 40 per cent of the total Dhaka population lives here (Angeles et al., 2009; Ishtiaque & Ullah, 2013). For these people it is difficult to get employed, especially for the new migrants. Most of the newcomers end up in the informal sector and 81.1 per cent is active in the low paid informal sector under bad labour circumstances (Ishtiaque & Ullah, 2013).
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Research on the RUM and the poor inhabitants of the slums of Dhaka has already been done. However there are still existing gaps of knowledge on more specific causes of the poor livelihoods. Linking different pull and push factors to RUM has been an interesting topic for researchers (Bhuyan, Khan & Ahmed 2001, Ullah 2004, Ishtiaque & Mahmud 2011 and Ishtiaque & Ullah 2013). Linking and defining those different pull and push factors from perspectives of different disciplines has not yet been done, and therefore it has the opportunity to create new insights within the complex issue.
The socio-economic and natural science factors influencing the employment rate related to the growing number of inhabitants in the slums of Dhaka will be assessed in this report. Therefore, this report is perfectly suitable for an interdisciplinary approach, due to the subject being important in several fields of expertise. First of all, it is important to understand where the problem is coming from. Climatological causes play a crucial role in this, because of the understanding how the southern environment is being affected. Second, the current state of the city through policies and spatial planning on the slums will be elaborated. Lastly,
5 the important insights and problems in employment rates and how businesses cope with the ever-growing slums of Dhaka will be addressed.
In this research, the following research question: ‘’How does the climate-related migration in southern Bangladesh affects the employment rate of the inhabitants of the slums of Dhaka?’’ will be investigated. Besides climate change as a push factor for migrants to relocate, there are also socioeconomic side-drivers. This distinction will become more clear in the theoretical framework. To answer the research question, a composition of a business-as-usual scenario for the year 2050 will be prepared through a literature review. By comparing the present and 2050 several conclusions can be drawn concerning demographic trends, climate trends and economic trends. This again implies the interdisciplinary character of the research.
Theoretical Framework
Push and pull factors of rural-urban migration
Climate related migration and resulting effects on the area of destination are processes that involve concepts of different disciplines. For instance, motivations for migrants to leave their homes can be sought in the earth scientific discipline (i.e. threat of disasters) as well as the economical discipline (i.e. no jobs available). Another example, work opportunity and availability in the slums of Dhaka depend on, among other things, the economic situation as well as the policy of the government. However, a common ground is present that directly connects all the different disciplines relevant for the researched problem, namely, the push and pull factors of the rural urban migration (RUM), which the migrants in Bangladesh experience. The push factors are the characteristics of their original environment (mostly the low-lying areas of southern Bangladesh) and the pull factors are the characteristics of Dhaka which are appealing since they provide better living standards than the locations where they flee from. In order to understand the origin of the problem of climate refugees, the effects of climate change as experienced in Bangladesh are presented below.
Climatological causes for the migration
In the upcoming paragraphs an overview will be given of the direct hazards that the Bangladeshi inhabitants are facing.
Two main consequences of global climate change, that strongly enhance the risks present, are sea-level rise (SLR) and sea-surface temperature (SST) rise (Islam, Mitra, Dewan & Akhter, 2016).
Local, regional and global oceanic and land processes all influence sea level (Cooper, Beevers & Oppenheimer, 2008). Islam et al. (2016) shows that the observed SLR, measured at different stations at the coast of Bangladesh, differs. Four different locations gave values of SLR ranging from 6.8 mm up to 15.7 mm per year. Although these stations show strong variation, all these values are strikingly higher than the global mean SLR rate of 3.1 mm per year. SLR accompanied with an increase in precipitation and melting of the Himalaya's results in one of the biggest hazards for the country: coastal and riverine floods
6 (Church et al., 2013). By the year 2050, IPCC predicts that 27 million Bangladeshi people are at risk of SLR (IPCC, 2014a).
In Bangladesh 80 per cent of the population is exposed to flood risk, including riverine and marine floodings. The highest risk is, as noted before, in the LECZ, which lies within ten meters above sea level. Sea, river and delta floods form a combined threat to the population. More than 110 million people live on the floodplains of one of the most vulnerable river systems in the world for floods; the Ganges-Bragmaputra-Megna (Smith, 2013 & Paul & Routray, 2010). Different areas in Bangladesh are affected by different types of floods (Figs 1 and 2). The area’s most vulnerable to the normal seasonal flooding are at the edge of the delta and alongside rivers. These seasonal floods can easily inundate 20 per cent of the total land area of Bangladesh and in extreme cases, 70 per cent of the land is covered. It is important to note that normal floods can be considered as a positive process, since arable land becomes more fertile which stimulates agricultural production (Brammer, 2000). However, Paul and Routray (2010) have done research in Bannabari and Suvagacha villages and they show that the effects of high-magnitude floods, such as in 2007 and 2010, strongly differ per area. Consequences found are severe soil erosion, riverbank erosion, loss of soil fertility as a result of siltation, drinking-water pollution, surface water pollution, damage to village roads and an increase in the occurrence of water related diseases. However, floods as a result of SLR and increase in river inflow, are not the only big hazard for Bangladesh. In the past 100 years Bangladesh has warmed approximately 0.5◦C. An increase in sea surface temperarture (SST) is also present (IPCC, 2014b & Karim & Mimura, 2008). SST strongly influences the formation of tropical cyclones. In theory, rise of SST will result in more frequent and strong cyclones (Karim & Mimura, 2008). If the by IPCC (2014b) predicted temperature rise of 2 by 2100 will become true, the increases in maximum cyclone wind speed in Bangladesh will be 10 percent (Emanuel, 2005). However, it should be noted that this increase is not yet detected by observations in Bangladesh. Cyclones can cause destruction when passing overland, but the most inordinate damage comes from the resulting surges and high tides (Figs 1 and 2) (Lein, 2000 & Ahmed, Kelman, Gehr & Saha, 2016). Also, the combining effect of SST rise and SLR can result in even higher cyclone-related storm surges (Karim & Mimura, 2008).
The prevalent factors in the process of rural-urban migration are investigated by Bhuyan, Khan & Ahmed (2001), Ullah (2004), Ishtiaque & Mahmud (2011) and Ishtiaque & Ullah (2013). Bhuyan, Khan & Ahmed (2001) examined by means of a questionnaire the activity of rural-urban migration and in particular the lack of jobs in the rural areas. Ullah (2004) has also assessed research collected by a questionnaire with FGD’s (focus group discussions) in the Dinajpur district in 2003 with a sample of 197 migrating families. According to Ullah (2004), migration is influenced by both push and pull factors. In accordance with Bhuyan, Khan & Ahmed (2001), the study encountered that push factors have the greatest impact and were explaining 51,6% of the variance, means it is the most powerful factor in determining migration. The variables with the highest push factor loadings are search for work, landlessness, the urge for livelihood and the threat of hazards present.
7 Ishtiaque & Mahmud (2011) conducted a face to face interpersonal interview (in some cases FDG’s) in the Korail and Baonia Badh slum in 2009 with a questionnaire, random sampled, with 373 respondents. This study has found the pull factor of getting access to the city’s informal sector is the predominant objective of migrants coming to Dhaka. Ishtiaque & Ullah (2013) also conducted a random sampled questionnaire in 2011 in the Korail slum with 263 respondents. To collect and process the data there has been made use of face to face interviews and five FDG’s with a regression model. This study shows that with 35,11% the pull factors were dominating the push factors with 26,46% of the variance. Variables with the highest pull factor loadings are getting access to city’s informal economy, high income probability and availability in jobs. This corresponds to the findings of Ulla (2004), mentioned above.
According to Todaro (1969) and Harris & Todaro (1970), rural-urban migration in developing countries like Bangladesh is determined by the difference of the expected urban wage from migration versus agricultural wage. The expected wage is calculated by the actual industrial wage balanced with the probability of a migrant to find a job in the city. As rural-urban migration is often accompanied by unemployment, Johnson (1971) added a new ‘’wage sharing’’ variable to the Harris-Todaro model. This was important to overcome urban unemployment and lower rates of job turnover. Later, Gugler & Flanagan (1978), Fields (1975) and Cordon & Findley also added new variables to the model to consider obstacles like the difference in access to information. Generally, all scientists agreed with the primary Todaro hypothesis that the difference in wage is a pull-factor of rural-urban migration.
Among the pull factors investigated by Ishtiaque & Ullah (2013), ‘’high income probability’’ has the second highest factor loading and thereby strengthens the Todaro model of wage differentials between rural and urban regions as a migration factor. It has become apparent from both the push and pull factors and the Todaro model that migrants enter the urban areas with some objectives, and in almost every case it is financial and employment orientated. In case of rural urban migration, there is a consensus that the dominant factor is high employment opportunity in urban areas, which is why this research into the employment trend is even more relevant.
It should be noted that interrelations between consequences of disasters and lack of economic opportunities on-site may be present. Resulting in migrants being correctly qualified as economic refugees, but it is not taken into account that they have become economic refugees as a result of long-term consequences of disasters. Methodologies of the researches should be revised in such a way that this type of error is cancelled out, for instance by adding the question to the surveys if the bad economic position of the concerning refugee is a result of consequences of disasters, or due to other reasons.
Employment potentials and problems
Higher income probability and search for work together with the urge for livelihood and natural disaster are some of the most significant determinants influencing migration (Ishtiaque & Ullah, 2013). In case of rural urban migration, there is a consensus that one of
8 the dominant factors is high employment opportunity in urban areas, which ensures the relevance and the need for research into the employment trend of rural urban migrants. Bhuyan, Khan & Ahmed (2001) interviewed respondents using a survey about the relative difficulty in getting a job in Dahka. While about 21 per cent of the respondents considered job search easy, about 66 per cent considered it as difficult or relatively difficult. This implies, that for a newcomer in the city, the process of getting a job is in most cases difficult and approximately three migrants compete for each job established in the urban area (Ullah, 2004).
According to Ishtiaque & Mahmud (2011), the largest proportion of the slum dwellers are looking for temporary employment (52%), while 48 per cent are permanent. Temporary migrants plan to quickly make lots of money in Dhaka and after a certain period of time return to their origins. These figures evoke discussion on whether migrants stay in the city from either climate related objectives (push factors), so that there is no option to go back to their origins, or from economic and job related perspectives (pull factors), unfortunately data for this issue is not available. Easy access to city’s informal industries is one of the major pull factors for rural-urban migrants to make quick money. As rural inhabitants are mostly poorer than urban people, many cannot afford the living expense in the city. Consequently, most of the rural-urban migrants end up in the slums (Ishtiaque & Ullah, 2013). In Dhaka, many migrants get exposed with the informal sector in these slums and will make their living in the informal economy, 81.1 per cent is employed in the low paid jobs in the informal sector (Ishtiaque & Ullah, 2013). The informal sector has two characteristics signifying the informal activities, first they are labour intensive and second, they avoid formal state supervision and regulation (Alam, 2012). The informal sector fits well with the Todaro model, which assumes that the urban informal sector is a pull factor where migrants keep looking for employment opportunities until they get un/underemployed and will end up in most cases in the urban informal sector (Ullah, 2004; Todaro, 1969).
To provide better insight in the life of rural-urban migrants, where they find their livings within the informal sector and what the conditions of those jobs are, this section concentrates on the workers and their work life. There are variations in the types of informal employment between male and female migrants. Males are engaged in eighty different types of occupations, like rickshaw pulling, day labouring and roadside small business (Ishtiaque & Ullah, 2013). Females are only found in occupations like maid servants and housewives (Hossain, 2008). According to work participation data from Opel (2000), the employment of the migrants in Dhaka city is concentrated in the labour-intensive sectors of the market (table 2). Hossain (2005) also conducted a questionnaire to investigate the economic activities of the urban poor and resulted that rickshaw pulling, like Opel (2000), is the main occupation in Dhaka.
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Table 2: Percentage distribution of main occupation types in Dhaka (Opel, 2000)
The urban poor involved in the formal urban employment sectors have better economic conditions than the poor in the informal sectors. Approximately 35 per cent of the urban poor often deals with underemployment because of the inadequate employment opportunities and diseases in the poor slums (Hossain, 2005). Migrants working in the formal industries perceive various benefits and are better off compared to their informal colleagues. About 32 per cent of the urban poor are physically, sexually and mentally harassed in their work environment (Jahan, 2012). Alam (2012) investigated that, in most cases (58.4%) an informal sector worker has to work +10 hours a day and almost 46 per cent of the respondents mentioned that they have to work 7 days a week.
The pull factors for Southern Bangladeshi people are almost all financial and employment orientated. Easy access to city’s informal industries is one of the major pull factors for rural-urban migrants. In Dhaka, many migrants make their living in the informal economy, 81.1% is employed in the low paid jobs in the informal sector. Consequently, most of the migrants end up in the slums of Dhaka. From planning and political perspectives, the carrying capacity of these areas is heavily exceeded. The territorial container model of Taylor (1994) shows that it is difficult for the Bangladeshi to come out of these slums and find better housing. Another concept, called planning as control, implies that the inhabitants of Dhaka are excluded and have no say in what happens in their direct environment. From the political science and policy making perspective, various insights into the cause of these problems can be investigated.
Planological theories and the role of institutional systems
In this paragraph an overview is given of the different urban related processes that happen around the world, and how this is visible in Dhaka.
Around 60 per cent of the citizens of Bangladesh are indirectly or directly dependent on the agricultural sector, and due to the effects of climate change like glacial retreats, sea-level rise and cyclones the arable land is in depletion (Hassaini-Mahmooei & Parris, 2012). This mostly triggers the rural urban migration (RUM) process in Bangladesh, a worldwide trend which is nowadays (2016) mostly occurring in Asian countries. Back in 1800 the
10 worldwide population living in urban areas was 2.5 per cent of the total. Now, according to the United Nations (2014), 54 per cent of the world’s population is residing in urban areas. Urban areas that are not always on locations safe from the natural hazards. Dhaka is the perfect example for this, due to its dense population and the fact that its is viable for natural hazards. An alarming matter, when looked at the critique effects of climate change on the city.
In Dhaka we encounter a similar trend, urbanization to Dhaka is increasing which means that there is a huge impact on the physical and social environment of Dhaka. This is why the city must cope with the issues of sustainable urbanisation. Especially in Dhaka, where the urban climate is changing rapidly, due to the fast growing city. Through good sustainable land use planning decentralisation can be achieved. For example decentralisation of the municipality where each district has more say and power within their own borough (Roy, 2009).
At the moment decentralisation within the city of Dhaka is an important topic according to Mowla (2016). He criticizes the most recent structure plan (2016-2035) of the city. The successes and mistakes of the previous plans are not implemented in the new plan, which implies that the municipality of Dhaka is not efficient and progressive enough in redeveloping her city (Mowla, 2016). This implies that the current partition of people stays the same. The poorer part of the inhabitants stay centred in the slums. Decentralisation of the municipality is an option to enhance a better way of developing a solution. A more stable form of development helps the city to cope with the ever growing climate migrant
When the city's segregation, concerning the poor in the slums, is clearly vissible, you could argue that the territorial container theory of Taylor (1994) is at play. This theory states that countries and cities, through a spatial power structure, strengthen the interests and aspirations of certain social elites. Yiftachel (1998) then argues that on top of this, the instruments of spatial planning assists this container model through planning. It gives the nation/city the power to create spatial areas with uneven social relations. The slums in Dhaka could be a result of this type of planning. Climate migrants end up in the slums and barely live in the better parts of the city. Spatial planning acknowledges the fact that there are slums and therefore it is a spatial structure that is separated from other parts in the city.
This type of planning with territorial containers, causes different social environments for the inhabitants of Dhaka. This leads to exclusion in all type of activities within the city, especially for the less fortunate. If people lack the integration in social networks through employment and co-working with local government, inequality might rise among inhabitants (Marcuse et al., 2009). The lack of legal job opportunities for the migrants in Dhaka therefore strengthens this division between the poor, the middle class and the rich through exclusion in employment. People still tend to end up in the informal sector (Hossain, 2008), and therefore exclusion only widens the gap between the rich and the poor.
Urban Governance of Dhaka and the role of NGO-GO partnerships
To understand the current economic policy, we must first understand the complex system that is the urban governance of Dhaka. The knowledge about urban governance in Asia
11 derives mainly from colonial influences. Under colonial governance, the most important issues of public sanitation and crime were solved by racial segregation of neighbourhoods, military force and policy. After the installation of municipal governments in 1880, voting only permitted for property owners, hence it was the elite who ruled (Institute of Governance Studies & BRAC University, 2012). Some of these colonial influences on governance are still visible in modern Bangladesh; only property owners are allowed to vote. Because of this, money extracted from citizens across the country through taxation is invested in areas inhabited by property owners, like Dhaka. This policy is enhancing inequality across the country (Haque, 2004).
The concept of urban governance has gained significance in policy and academic research, due to the trend in which the majority of economic development and population growth of developing countries is expected to occur mainly in their cities (Institute of Governance Studies & BRAC University, 2012). The definition of urban governance is not controversial. The UN (2016) offers a clear definition on urban governance.
“It is the software that enables the urban hardware to function, the enabling environment requiring the adequate legal frameworks, efficient political, managerial and administrative processes, as well as strong and capable local institutions able to respond to the citizens needs” (UN-HABITAT, 2015).
In Bangladesh, governance is based on NGO – Government partnerships (from here on NGO-GO partnerships). These partnerships include joined efforts in projects, subcontracting public service goods to major NGOs and direct NGO-financing by the Bangladesh government (World Bank, 1996 ; Dutta, 1999). The partnerships can be described in terms as cooperation, complementary and collaboration (Brinkerhoff & Brinkerhoff, 2002). The most common form of NGO-GO partnership in Bangladesh is that of subcontracting public service goods to NGOs, in which government enters in formal contracts with NGOs in implementing projects in Bangladesh (World Bank, 1996). The scope of issues addressed by NGO-GO partnerships is broad, however, in the domain of poverty relief and employment there is now greater recognition of the need for these partnerships (Haque, 2004). This partnership evolved from merely informal consultation and discussion to formal partnerships in different sectors, such as agriculture, population control and housing (Mujeri, 1999).
In the case of Dhaka, the main policy challenge lies in employing the thousands of new immigrants that enter the city every year. The Bangladesh government has implemented several subsidy programmes to encourage migrants to return to their home villages, but none of these programmes have had a significant effect on impaction in Dhaka (Institute of Governance Studies & BRAC University, 2012; World Bank, 1996).
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Integration of the perceived push and pull factors
In order to integrate these different insights, the integrating technique of theory organisation from Repko (2012) is used. Instead of redefining concepts and variables to show interfaces, one can also explore interactions that preserve the tension between them. According to Repko (2012), organisation identifies commonality in concepts or assumptions, redefines them and organises arranges or maps the causal links between them. All different push and pull factors within this research combine and influence each other under an umbrella of organisational behaviour.
To be able to receive an overview of the push and pull factors present, a table is created (table 1). From this table, it can be noted that there are many push and pull factors that come from different schools of thought. Of course, the presented push and pull factors are not the only ones’ present. However, based on previous discussed research by Ullah (2004), Bhuyan, Khan & Ahmed (2001) and others, these factors are considered to be the most important.
Push factor contributing to all other push factors
Push Factors to leave their homes
Pull Factors to come to Dhaka
- Reoccurrence of natural disasters (E)
- Failure to repay NGO loan (PS) - Not enough work opportunities (B) - Livelihood destroyed/ urge of livelihood (E/S)
- Homelessness (E/PL)
- Threatened by opposition (PS) - Loss of income source (E,B) - Financial crisis (B)
- Village politics (PS)
- Easy access to informal sector (B/PS)
- Positive information received about the city (-)
- Higher income probability (B) - Joining relatives (-)
- More social amenities and services (PL/PS)
Table 1: Selected push and pull factors which stimulate the Southern Bangladeshi inhabitants to migrate to Dhaka. B= business studies, E= earth science, PL= planning, PS= political science, S= social geography, - = Other.
The fact that natural disasters in the southern parts of Bangladesh was a push factor that influences all the other push factors in the sketch, makes a clear inter-connection between the views of the different disciplines. As a result of climatological disasters, which will be discussed in the chapter ‘Climatological causes for the migration’, many circumstances in the low-lying areas of Bangladesh become less beneficial. Direct consequences are easy to detect, for instance, houses get destroyed by floods. Indirect consequences of climatological disasters are also present. Almost all the push factors are indirectly related to the hazards and disasters. However, it is more challenging to interlink these push factors to climatological disasters. For example, floods occurring in the rural areas of southern Bangladesh can result in salinization of soil and water, leading to infertile soils, resulting in lack of agricultural opportunities (Kabir, Cramb, Alauddin & Roth, 2016). If
13 thus farmers will be unable to practice their occupation, they can decide to migrate to a city with more job opportunities. When this type of RUM occurs, it is often (correctly) qualified as economic refugees, but it is not taken into account that they have become economic refugees as a result of long-term consequences of disasters. Interrelations between consequences of disasters and lack of economic opportunities on-site are present, but are mostly not taken into account for methodologies researches. These researches should be revised in such a way that this type of error is cancelled out, for instance by adding the question to the surveys if the bad economic position of the concerning refugee is a result of consequences of disasters, or due to other reasons. Because of this error in existing literature it is not possible to establish how big the influence of climate change on other push factors is. However, as stated above as well as in the chapter ‘Climatological causes for the migration’, a correlation between the two is present.
Methodology
To understand the effects the climate related RUM has on the city of Dhaka and the employment rate, the push and pull factors and, demographic, economic and climate related trends have been studied. By analysing these trends for the year 2050, a scenario will be sketched. Scenarios are by many claimed to be a good tool for decision makers, and are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties (Postma & Liebl, 2005). It therefore lends itself perfectly for this wicked problem in Bangladesh. Policy makers in Dhaka therefore could use future scenarios to rethink their policy implementations. By comparing the present and 2050 several conclusions can be drawn by extrapolating data concerning demographic trends, climate trends and economical trends.
The year 2050 is a year where a lot of present scenarios are already focussing on, therefore it creates a good basis for finding quantitative data for trends. For example institutions like the IPCC, UN and CIA factbook have already sketched several scenarios representatively concerning climate, demographic and economic trends. The scenarios that have been analysed are the business as usual scenarios. This has been done to acquire the most to be expected results within the different trends. To make the results even more realistic, extrapolated data from trends will be added. The combined results from the different sources and the extrapolated data, will then provide the data for the scenario 2050. The future scenario will then be compared with the current situation to obtain information about the future developments of employment rate.
Climate
For the main trend concerning the climate change effects on the Bangladeshi shoreline, the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the IPCC (2014) is used. This is the most recent report of the intergovernmental panel and has been released in 2014. The AR5 has been delivered in stages, and for example the physical science part is based on 9,200 peer-reviewed studies. This shows a greatly overall consensus in the scientific community over
14 the threat of sea level rise due to climate change. Statistics of the World Bank (2013) will also contribute to the scenario. The international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries is linked with the UN, and it therefore has reliable information.
For examining a trend in yearly sea level rise a highly cited article by Church and White (2006) is used. This article states the global-mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Results of this research are unrealistic if you compare them to regional trends, however the GMSL is an interesting figure to compare with the figures of the IPCC. When taking three figures into account a more solid base is formed for the 2050 scenario.
Demographics
For demographic developments the CIA factbook and United Nations provide for a solid bases of the current population of a country and city. Figures like urbanization rate are also further assessed. For the present population we take figures of the year 2016. Future figures are collected through the United Nations data query. For the city of Dhaka the world population review site is used, which uses several spreadsheet data about demographics to map out the population figures of cities and countries.
Employment
The employment developments are, compared to the first two trends from the scenario, more reliant on other variables. Politics and policy are highly influencing this trend. For this reason it is harder to set figures for a future scenario, especially in a developing country like Bangladesh. In a country like this the statistics concerning this topic are harder to find and even harder to calculate. However, in the scenario two main sources will be used. The BRAC university and the Habitat organ of the UN. Respectively these are statistics about the employment rates with a division between the informal and formal sector from a local scale and from an international scale, which provides more support than solely from a national or international level.
Results: a scenario for the year 2050
According to the IPCC AR5 (2014) the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) is expected to rise 0.2 meter by 2050 compared to 2000. Projections on the acceleration of the GMSL rise as described by Church and White (2006) support these expectations. However, the GMSL does not give a legitimate projection on the sea level rise of Bangladesh, since local changes in mean sea level can differ significantly from changes of the GMSL (IPCC, 2014). A report of the World Bank (2013) projects an increase in mean sea level by 0.34 meter for Bangladesh by 2050, which translates to a loss of 20% of productive land in Southern Bangladesh. By the year 2050 a potential ten-year return cyclone is expected to hit Bangladesh, which could expose 9.7 million people to more than 3 meters of inundation, further threatening agriculture and lives (World Bank, 2013). The effects of climate change are already evident in Bangladesh and further rising temperatures will affect more people
15 every year. By 2050, increased flood damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements will occur, even as an increase of heat related human mortality and drought related water and food shortage (IPCC, 2014).
These effects of climate change will influence the migration related push factors, as shown in the theoretical framework section above. Today (2016), Bangladesh has a little more than 156 million inhabitants, of which 17.5 million live in Dhaka (CIA, 2016). Urbanization levels are relatively high in Asian countries, Bangladesh included. How rapidly the urban population is rising is clearly visible in this graph by the World Bank. In 1960, the urban population represented 5% of the total population, as for today, this number has increased to 34%.
Figure 4: The rising number of inhabitants in Bangladesh. www.tradingeconomics.com/Bangladesh/Dhaka (24/11/2016).
The annual population growth of Dhaka is 4.2%, which is slightly higher than the countries urbanization rate of 3.5% (WorldPopulationReview, 2016). Climate change is expected to gain importance as a driver of urbanization (World Bank, 2013). According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN-Habitat (2015), 70% of the inhabitants of the slums of Dhaka are climate refugees and this group is currently growing by half a million a year. By the year 2050, it is estimated that 85% of the slums inhabitants are climate refugees (IOM & UN-Habitat, 2015). To conclude, climate change will have a significant effect on RUM, which will have a significant effect on the demographics of Dhaka. Many cities in developing countries experience rapid population growth without the corresponding economic growth needed to sustain the livelihoods of all inhabitants (Kim &
16 Short, 2008). This phenomenon known as impaction is occurring in Dhaka and is expected to become even more evident as the city welcomes new migrants every year (UN-Habitat, 2015). According to a report of BRAC (2012), the country’s largest NGO, the national employment trends support the choice migrants make every year. The average share of formal employment is 51%, which is significantly higher than the country’s average of 20%. Rural areas are lacking the informal sector, as a result, this low formal employment rate equals a high unemployment rate. About 65% of the jobs are represented by the informal sector, where rickshaw pulling and peddling are the main occupations (BRAC, 2012; Mukherjee, 2006). Wages in Dhaka are higher than anywhere else in the country, but this is compensated by the higher cost of living (BRAC, 2012). It is noted that the formal housing and economic sector cannot keep up with the fast urbanization. As a result, the informal sectors are developing features that are most commonly seen within formal sectors, such as taxation on work and rent to landlords. These features increase inequality and exploitation, since these informal taxes and rents are not monitored by the government and workers and renters have no legal rights in these transactions. If these developments continue, by 2050 these informal sectors might function the same as formal sectors, accommodating up to 90% of the slums working force (UN-Habitat, 2015).
Conclusion
SLR and the reoccurrence of natural hazards due to climate change are severely affecting the lowlands of Bangladesh. This has resulted in a large figure of urbanisation, in particular to the capital of the nation, Dhaka. When looking at a future scenario for 2050 for the development of the employment rate in Dhaka the trend of saturation of the formal sector increases. The pressure on the labour market of Dhaka will severely increase, up to the point that the slums of Dhaka will be not viable anymore. The population growth of the city due to climate related urbanisation from the southern parts of Bangladesh is extensively contributing to the issue of unemployment. Several other push and pull factors, like the easy access to the informal sector of Dhaka seem to even further enhance this problem. With the available data it is not possible to determine the exact employment rate. However, the informal sector will take up the majority of the working force, up to the point that the sector forms its own institutional framework. The informal sector will start to have more and more traits from the formal sector, due to its large size. The trend of impaction will continue and become more prominent, meaning the city’s economy will not expand similar to the population growth, leaving many inhabitants jobless.
The interdisciplinary approach showed different sides of this alarming problem in the Asian developing country. And therefore it created an interesting scenario in which the biggest challenges are depicted for Bangladesh and Dhaka to cope with the increasing amount of climate migrants. Acknowledging the fact that the use and the interlinkage of different disciplines helped forming the framework of the push and pull factors concerning migration to the south. A mutually agreement on the importance of the overlying push factor, the recurrence of natural disasters, made it clear that through this approach the issue of climate migration in Bangladesh has been influenced by the effects of climate change. This
17 would have certainly be a different result when looked through one discipline.
The framework of the push and pull factors also led to reasons to assume that the urbanisation would be bigger due to climate change, and that the importance of the pull factor the easy access to the informal sector was of great importance. Which all led to the 2050 scenario results, and the trends found in the development of the informal sector of itself.
Dhaka is under a lot of pressure of the growing urbanization from the south due to the changing climate. Bangladesh is one of the first countries to feel the effects of the widely recognized climate change. And the livelihood of the people is at stake, especially in the slums of the big cities like Dhaka. If no radical change is imagined by the city the slums will overflowed and the control over employment will be lost to the informal sector.
Discussion
In the discussion section of the research the value of the results will be addressed. after this a few contradictions and difficult points will be addressed from the report. Logically following some research recommendations to further research this topic to fill the gaps where this research could not include all different information sources and research approaches.
One of the two major parts of the research, the results, needs to have a certain amount of value to society. The scenario that has been sketched supplies this value to in particular the nation of Bangladesh and the municipality of Dhaka. In the last section of this research three policy recommendations have been adapted for these governmental organizations. By acknowledging the effects of climate change the government can adjust their policy and implementations to the future state of being of the country and the city of Dhaka. Through the scenario there is hoped to add some value to the society of Bangladesh.
On the other hand the value of the results is also for the scientific community. It can be seen as the first stepping stone in a broader scenario analysis with the use of more variables, which is highly recommended to sketch a better scenario and embrace more contributing factors to the future state of 2050. The variables of demographics, climate change and employment have set the first steps in creating an overall scenario for the municipality of Dhaka. However, by looking at more developments for example food security, water security and the developments of the ecology around the city of Dhaka including the interlinkage between one another, a broader more complete scenario can be produced. And to even create a more reliable scenario the research insists on more on the place research, with face-to-face contact. An example where this was truly missed in this research, was with the information concerning the employment. Through monitoring this data should be acquired, and therefore it should be more reliable. Research done is this corner in developing countries and cities should be done more on the location itself. The research therefore recommends for the follow up research to do this in Dhaka, to acquire more and better information.
18 The other major part of this research is the mapping of the push and pull factors. The increase in power and reoccurrence of the disasters in the low-lying areas of Bangladesh is predicted to result in high quantities of climate refugees arriving in Dhaka. Although being of high importance, not all refugees arrive in Dhaka as a direct result of the disasters. Many push and pull factors are present which are influential. For instance, the reoccurrence of the disasters is a strong push factor, but the easy access to the informal sector in Dhaka is a strong pull factor. The importance of each of those push and pull factors however, is still a point of discussion. From the point of view from this paper, the reoccurrence of the natural disasters is the leading push factor. However, from a more economical point of perspective work related matters may be the most important factor. However, due to an interdisciplinary approach, the overlapping push factor reoccurrence of natural disasters seems like the most acknowledged push factor through different school of thoughts.
However, a different approach to effects of the push and pull factors has not been taking into account. For example preventing the southern Bangladeshi from leaving the southern parts, is an interesting option that has not been greatly looked into in this research. The same goes for the alternative urbanisation routes for the people other than going to Dhaka.
Finally, there can be stated that the developments in Bangladesh and Dhaka and this research can contribute to the ever-growing canon of literature of the effect of climate change on developing countries. By addressing this research the awareness of climate change disasters on all levels among scientific circles should be strengthened yet again. And therefore provide literature for an ever growing consensus that climate change plays a big role in developments within a socio-economical dimension.
Recommendations
In this section a few policy recommendations will be briefly assessed as a result of the scenario that has been sketched for 2050. And secondly, the research recommendations that were earlier introduced in the discussion section have been briefly summarized.
Policy recommendations
1. Implement universal suffrage in Bangladesh. This prevents the uneven distribution of government spending and the exclusion of poor Bangladeshi. Furthermore, investments by the government to serve the interests of all inhabitants will lead to better preservation of natural resources and environmental management. This will reduce the effects of climate change, such as salinization and riverbank erosion, and will thus temper the migration flow to Dhaka.
2. Create a system to manage the taxes and rents paid by informal workers. This will reduce inequality and exploitation amongst the informal sector, and by regulation these transactions informal sectors will be shifted to the formal economy. This will increase government income which can be spend to serve the interests of the poor.
19 3. Reduce territorial containment through planning on a more local scale through decentralisation. By reducing the spatial segregation of rich and poor, living conditions will improve and exclusion will decline.
Research recommendations
1. Further research on the link between climate change and migration is needed to form a better understanding of the interconnection of the different push and pull factors. This research focussed on Bangladesh, further research will show if these findings can be implemented elsewhere.
2. Much information on the employment statistics of the inhabitants of the slums of Dhaka is missing. More thorough monitoring should be implemented to collect up to date, reliable, data.
3. When assessing motivations for people to migrate in Bangladesh, it should be noted that interrelations between consequences of disasters and lack of economic opportunities on-site may be present. Resulting in migrants being correctly qualified as economic refugees, but it is not taken into account that they have become economic refugees as a result of long-term consequences of disasters. A revision of the methodologies of the researches should occur to ensure that this type of error is cancelled out, in example by adding the question to the surveys if the bad economic position of the concerning refugee is a result of consequences of disasters, or due to other reasons.When this type of information is included it will result in a better understanding of the RUM in Bangladesh.
20
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