Dutch mayors, framing contests and
political outcomes during riot related
‘mini-crises’
Source: DailySurge
Source: HarendeKrant
Source: Volkskrant
Master: Crisis and Security Management, Leiden University Class February 2015
Student: Caspar Pille, S1637940 Final Thesis, 12.01.2016
Words: 35848 words (incl. references) Pages: 102
Thesis supervisor: Dr. R. S. (Ruth) Prins Second reader: Prof. E. (Edwin) Bakker
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Content
Summary ...4
1. Introduction and central question ...5
1.1 Introduction...5 1.2 Research question...6 1.3 Academic relevance ...6 1.4 Societal relevance...7 1.5 Structure ...8 2. Literature review...9
2.1 Contemporary literature on crisis leadership, meaning making and political and policy consequences ...9
2.2 Theoretical lens of this thesis ... 11
2.3 Framing during crises ... 12
2.4 The Staged Response Theory... 13
2.5 Framing contests and success in terms of political outcomes ... 15
2.5.1. Framing strategies and political outcomes ... 15
2.5.2. ‘Framing coalitions’ of political opponents ... 17
2.6 Contextual factors influencing the framing contest... 18
2.6.1 Mini-crisis with a clear problem ... 18
2.6.2. Media ... 19
2.6.3. Time in office ... 19
2.6.4. Official inquiry ... 20
2.7 Summary and operationalization table ... 20
3. Research Design ... 25
3.1 Multiple and most similar case study design ... 25
3.1.1 Case study ... 25
3.1.2 Multiple and most similar cases ... 25
3.2 Methods of data gathering ... 26
3.2.1 Cases... 26
3.2.2 Units of analysis and units of observation ... 28
3.3 Methods of data analysis ... 30
3.3.1 Qualitative content analysis ... 30
3.3 Important validity and reliability issues ... 34
3.3.1 Construct validity ... 34
3.3.2 External validity ... 34
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3. Analysis ... 36
3.1 Case 1: Festival Riots in the Hoek van Holland... 36
3.1.2 First reactions of the mayor and the first municipality council meeting after the occurred events 36 3.1.3 Framing contest... 42
3.1.4 Second municipality council meeting after the publication of the COT report ... 44
3.1.5 Framing contest... 51
3.1.5 Political outcomes case 1... 53
3.1.6 Conclusion case 1 ... 54
3.2 Case 2: Project X Riots Haren ... 55
3.2.1 First reaction of the mayor and first municipality meeting after the occurred events ... 55
3.2.2. Framing contest ... 60
3.2.3 Period between the first reactions and the Cohen Report ... 61
3.2.4 The publication of the Cohen Report ... 62
3.2.5 Framing contest... 68
3.2.6 Political outcomes case 2 ... 69
3.2.7 Conclusion case 2 ... 70
3.3 Case 3: Schilderswijk Riots in the Hague summer 2014 ... 71
3.3.1 Used framing strategy by the mayor and his political opponents ... 71
3.3.2 Framing contest... 79
3.3.3 Political outcomes case 3 ... 82
3.3.4 Conclusion case 3 ... 82
3.4 Comparison between cases ... 83
3.4.1 Most similar cases but different findings ... 84
3.4.2 Staged response ... 85
3.4.3 Contextual factors ... 85
5. Conclusion and recommendations ... 87
5.1 Research question and findings... 87
5.2 Theoretical implications ... 88
5.3 Practical implications ... 89
5.4 Shortcomings of this research and areas for future research... 90
7. References ... 92
4 Summary
Local mini-crises are often crucial moments in the careers of public leaders. The way in which they deal with a crisis, in terms of crisis communication, strategic framing, and questions of blame, has strong implications for their reputation and political survival. This thesis seeks to gain knowledge about the framing contest between mayor and their political opponents by analyzing their framing strategies during riot related mini-crises. The following research question has been used: ‘What framing strategies are used by Dutch mayors and their opponents during ‘riot related’ mini-crises and to what extent and how are the strategies of the mayors successful in terms of political outcomes?’.
In answering that question this thesis uses the theoretical notions about framing contests and political outcomes, described by Boin, ‘t Hart, and McConnell arguing that the outcome of a crisis in terms of political consequences is related to the type of frame used by the office holders and their opponents (Boin, ‘t Hart, and McConnell, 2008). In addition, this thesis combines the framework of Boin et al. with the ‘staged response theory’ of Hood, Jennings, Hogwood and Beeston arguing that office holders and their political opponents are likely to adjust their frames during different stages of the aftermath in light of contextual pressures (Hood, Jennings, Hogwood and Beeston, 2007).
This thesis analyzed three mini-crisis: the riots in the Hoek van Holland of 2009 during the Veronica Sunset Grooves Festival, the Project X riots in Haren of 2012, and the riots in the Schilderswijk in the Hague of 2014. By using a qualitative content analysis this thesis has aimed to identify different framing strategies used by the mayor and his political opponents and the success in terms of political outcomes for the particular mayor. This thesis furthermore focuses at possible explanations for successful political outcomes by analyzing the way frames of the mayor and his political opponents clashed, the adjustment of frames overtime, and potential contextual factors influencing the framing contest.
Findings suggest no identifiable pattern between a specific used framing strategy by the mayor and success in terms of political outcomes. They further suggest that the aftermath of riot related mini-crisis is characterized by a landscape of various framing positions, rather than the simplistic clash between three potential frame types (denial, critical threat and critical opportunity) as described by Boin et al. In two of the three cases a staged response was visible in the sense that the mayor adjusted his frame to less defensive position in light of the
contextual factor of an official inquiry. At last, the factors media and time in office seemed to have influenced the framing contest in individual cases.
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1. Introduction and central question
1.1 Introduction
Local mini-crises are often crucial moments in the careers of public leaders. The way in which they deal with a crisis, in terms of crisis communication, strategic framing, and questions of blame, has strong implications for their reputation and political survival (e.g. Boin, ‘t Hart, and McConnell, 2008). It is argued that in the aftermath of a crisis both the public leaders in charge as well as their political opponents seek to exploit the situation for their own political gain (e.g. Boin, ‘t Hart, and McConnell, 2008). In the Netherlands this phenomenon seems to become increasingly more relevant at a local level. Recent years have shown that Dutch mayors as they are charged with more crisis management responsibilities also become more vulnerable to critique on their performances (NRC, 2015). The ‘Law Security Regions’ implemented in 2010 tasked Dutch mayors in cases of (potential) crisis or disasters with the highest operational command as well crisis communication activities (Nederlandse Overheid, 2016). It therefore becomes more and more relevant for Dutch mayors to perform well during such events, not only in order to protect the safety of their citizens, but also to secure their reputations and political careers.
This thesis aims to gain knowledge about this development by analyzing the crisis exploitation effort of both Dutch mayors and their political opponents during ‘riot-related mini-crises’. Riots typically pose public order issues and therefore require actions of the mayor (Nederlands Genootschap van Burgemeesters, 2015). They give valuable information about how such incidents and the performances of the mayor are strategically exploited by the mayor and his political opponents in the aftermath of the events. This thesis has analyzed three events: the riots in the Hoek van Holland of 2009 during the Veronica Sunset Grooves Festival (CCV, 2009; NRC, 2009; NOS, 2010; Het Parool, 2010), the Project X riots in Haren of 2012 (AD, 2012; NOS, 2012; RTV Noord, 2012; Volkskrant, 2012), and the riots in the Schilderswijk in the Hague of 2014 (NOS, 2014 I; NRC, 2014; Omroep West, 2014; Volkskrant, 2014). The three cases are defined as ‘mini-crises’ since they include a limited number of victims and/or material damage, but did have disruptive effects on local
6 1.2 Research question
In order to gain knowledge about the phenomenon of crisis exploitation in the area of riot related mini-crisis in the Netherlands this thesis aims to identify different framing strategies used by Dutch mayors and their political opponents during these riot related mini-crises. Furthermore, this thesis seeks to determine the extent of political success in terms of political outcomes. The following central question has been used:
This study deals with the following sub questions:
What frames have been used by Dutch mayors during the examined mini-crises? What frames have been used by their political opponents during the examined
mini-crises?
What have been the political outcomes of the used frames in terms of elite damage, elite escape, or elite rejuvenation and to what extent were these outcomes successful? How can the extent of success of the used framing strategies of the mayors be
explained?
1.3 Academic relevance
Most research done so far has been focusing on ‘big’ or ‘extreme’ crises or disasters1
(e.g. ’t Hart 1993; Tarrow 1994; Brändström and Kuipers 2003; De Vries 2004; Boin et al., 2008). This research will be one of the first attempts to empirically examine the political outcomes of framing efforts of Dutch mayors during riot related mini-crises in the Netherlands. By doing so, it aims to fill the gap of empirical knowledge about crisis framing and exploitation with regard to local mini-crises in the Netherlands. Next to the aim to increase empirical
knowledge about crisis framing and exploitation, this thesis is academically relevant due to its ambition to improve our theoretical understanding of crisis framing and exploitation.
This thesis builds upon the theoretical notions about framing contests and political outcomes, described by Boin, ‘t Hart, and McConnell (2008). Their framework is an attempt
1 Firework disasters, floods, big (deadly) fires, etc.
‘What framing strategies are used by Dutch mayors and their political opponents during ‘riot related’ mini-crises and to what extent and how are the strategies of the mayors successful in terms of political outcomes?’
7 to conceptualize the political and policy implications of framing contests and crisis
exploitation efforts during the aftermath of a crisis. Boin et al. their argument is that the outcome of a crisis in terms of political or policy consequences is related to the type of frame used by office holders, as well as how this frame has been contested by their political
opponents (Boin, ‘t Hart, and McConnell, 2008). This thesis builds upon this claim, but adds a more process sensitive approach. By combining the framework of Boin et al. with the ‘staged response theory’ of Hood, Jennings, Hogwood and Beeston (2007) this thesis aims to
improve our theoretical understanding of crisis exploitation by showing that the political outcome of a framing strategy is not only related to the type of frame used by office holders, but also to the way they adjust their frames in the case of continued pressures over time.
The specific focus of this thesis has been on the framing contest between Dutch mayors and their political opponents within the municipality council debate as this is the political arena where eventually is decided about the mayor his position. In addition, this thesis aims to analyze the role of contextual factors (‘crisis with a clear problem’, ‘media’, ‘time in office’ and ‘official inquiry’) potentially influencing the framing contest and thus important to broaden our empirical and theoretical understanding about framing contests in the aftermath of (mini)-crises.
1.4 Societal relevance
In the Netherlands large crises with many victims and/or extensive material damage do not occur often (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013). However, so called ‘mini-crises’ with a limited number of victims and material damage but with potentially disruptive effects occur more frequently2 making them relevant topics of research (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013). Since mini-crises are local phenomena knowledge about framing contests and crisis exploitation related to these events serves as valuable information for Dutch mayors and crisis
professionals that assist them. The findings of this research could inform their strategies and increase their understanding of how framing contests in the aftermath of riot related mini-crises evolve. As discussed earlier this seems to become more and more relevant in light of the increased role of mayors as crisis managers and their enhanced exposure to public and political judgment.
2 e.g. related to extreme weather, fires and the spread of hazardous materials, social unrest due to the re-entry in society of convicted sex-offenders (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013).
8 1.5 Structure
The structure of this thesis is as follows. First, important theoretical concepts and assumptions related to crisis framing, exploitation, staged response and political outcomes, are explained. Second, important methodological decisions and strategies are outlined. Special attention is paid to issues of this study regarding construct validity, external validity and reliability. Third, the findings on the three cases are presented followed by a cross case comparison. At last, the conclusions are discussed, policy recommendations are given and areas for further research are highlighted.
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2. Literature review
This study aims to identify the extent of political success of certain framing strategies used by mayors during mini-crisis. The following chapter provides an overview of the state of the art literature regarding the political dimension of crisis management. Furthermore, key concepts and theoretical models regarding crisis framing, staged response, framing contest, and political success, important for answering the central question of this thesis, are discussed.
2.1 Contemporary literature on crisis leadership, meaning making and political and policy consequences
During and in the aftermath of a crisis office holders are confronted with the crucial tasks of sense, decision, and meaning making (Boin, ‘t Hart, Stern, and Sundelius, 2005). They need to make sense of what is going on, they need to make crucial decisions based on often limited information, and they need to give meaning to the occurring events (Boin, ‘t Hart, Stern, and Sundelius, 2005). These crucial tasks lead to different streams of academic literature.
Academic contributions regarding sense- and decision making tend to be more concerned with the organizational and process-oriented aspects of dealing with a crisis, in terms of for instance the alignment of operational and strategic level sense making and the different (psychological) factors influencing processes of decision making (Klein, Orasanu,
Calderwood, and Zsambok, 1993; Boin and Renaud, 2013). Contributions regarding meaning making, on the other hand, are more concerned with the efforts of office holders to promote a certain dominant reality to the outside world about the nature of the events, the question of blame and the role of existing policies and practices (e.g. Benoit, 1995; Coombs and
Holladay, 2002; Hood, Jennings, Hogwood and Beeston, 2007; Boin, ‘t Hart and McConnell, 2008). It is within this process of meaning making that political careers are potentially
damaged and existing policies are under threat.
Over the past years several claims have been made regarding meaning making in the aftermath of a crisis and the implications for office holders. Scholars as Benoit, Coombs and Holladay have been examining the reputational consequences of crises for organizations and office-holders. Benoit developed the so called ‘image repair theory (1995)’ arguing for accommodative strategies that include apologies in order to repair damaged reputations after crises (Benoit, 1995). Coombs and Holladay in addition developed the ‘situational crisis communication theory (2002)’, stating that such accommodative strategies and the acceptance of responsibility can and should be avoided due to amongst others, legal and financial
10 consequences in specific crisis situations (Coombs and Holladay, 2002). They argue that the reputational consequences of a crisis are related to the specific crisis situation and the extent of responsibility that can be attributed to the organization or office holders in charge during the crisis (Coombs and Holladay, 2002). According to their research the more organizations or office holders can be held responsible for a crisis, the more likely they are to suffer reputational damage from it (Coombs and Holladay, 2002).
Hood, Jennings, Hogwood, and Beeston in addition offer a more ‘process-sensitive’ approach with their ‘staged response theory’ (Hood et. al., 2007). In essence they state a similar claim as Coombs and Holladay linking the amount of responsibility to the extent of damage (political and reputational) (Hood et. al., 2007). They add, however, that office holders their initial stance is therefore likely one of responsibility denial and only when they perceive this as unfeasible they will accept certain amounts of responsibility, following a ‘staged retreat under fire’ (Hood et. al., 2007).
Next to the described literature about the relationship between responsibility and reputational consequences for office holders (and their organizations), there has been an extensive range of literature focusing on the policy implications of meaning making during crises in the sense that it describes a relationship between the allocation of responsibility and the implementation of new policies. Scholars as Kingdom (1984), Keeler (1993), Primo and Cobb (2003), and Birkland (2006) have been studying the relationship between crises and meaning making in light of their agenda setting effects regarding policy. The general
assumption in this field of research is that policy is made when separate streams of thinking and action (problem recognition, the formation and refining of policy proposals, and politics) are brought together during critical moments, partly as a result of the crisis opening a window of opportunity and partly under the influence of policy entrepreneurs (Kingdon, 1984). Thus, important to this branch of literature is the idea that crises are linked to a question of
responsibility which results in a window of opportunity for advocators of policy change. In this sense, this type of literature closely connect to the literature about the relationship between crisis and reputational consequences in the sense that both fields of inquiry connect crises to a question of responsibility which could have respectively political (reputational) consequences, as well as policy implications.
The next paragraph explains how Boin, ‘t Hart and McConnell (2008) combine this link between crises and the impact they have on both the office holders in place and their political careers as well as the status quo policies and practices. In addition, it argues why this
11 thesis takes their framework as point of departure and explains the choice for combining it with the ‘staged response theory’ of Hood, Jennings, Hogwood, and Beeston (2007).
2.2 Theoretical lens of this thesis
In their article about crisis exploitation Boin, ‘t Hart and McConnell (2008) recognized the previously described link between crises and the impact they have on both the office holders in place and their political careers and the status quo policies and practices. They further build upon research of authors such as ‘t Hart, Tarrow, Brändström, Kuipers and De Vries, that focuses on the competition between different actors in producing crises frames or narratives in the aftermath of crises (’t Hart 1993; Tarrow 1994; Brändström and Kuipers 2003; De Vries 2004). These studies in particular explore how contestants often seek to exploit a crisis in order to defend and strengthen their positions and to maintain old or incent new policies (’t Hart 1993; Tarrow 1994; Brändström and Kuipers 2003; De Vries 2004). In line with these studies Boin et al. argue that the aftermath of a crisis is often dominated by crisis exploitation efforts (Boin et al, 2008). They define crisis exploitation as:
‘The purposeful utilization of crisis-type rhetoric to significantly alter levels of political support for public office-holders and public policies (Boin et al, 2008:83).’
With crisis exploitation they thus mean efforts of office holders as well as their political opponents to strategically frame the events in order to produce particular political and policy outcomes that coincide with their ambitions (Boin et al., 2008). In addition, Boin et al. argue that based on these crisis exploitation efforts by office holders and their political opponents framing contests emerge in which different types of frames can clash (Boin et al., 2008).
This thesis takes this theory of crisis exploitation of Boin et al. as theoretical point of departure. It builds upon the idea that in the aftermath of a crisis different types of frames are adopted regarding the nature of events and the role of the mayors and the existing policies (Boin et al., 2008). In addition, this thesis builds upon Boin et al. their assumptions regarding the framing contest that seek to explain the clash between different frames and their political outcomes in terms of elite damage, escape or rejuvenation (Boin et al., 2008). This thesis, thus, while including policy critique as part of the possible used frames by both the mayor and his political opponents, does not examine the eventual policy outcomes in terms of policy maintenance or change. The goal of this thesis is to identify framing strategies and their political outcomes.
12 Furthermore, this thesis adds a more process sensitive approach that is absent in the framework of Boin et al. The theoretical assumptions of the ‘staged response theory’ of Hood, Jennings, Hogwood and Beeston (2007), referring to the idea that different frames are not used in a static sense during the entire aftermath of a crisis, but are likely to be selectively deployed depending on the specific stages of the crisis, has been combined with the
framework of Boin et al. The next paragraphs further outline how this thesis aims to improve the framework of Boin et al. by moving away from the non likely assumption that actors use a particular type of frame during the entire aftermath of a crisis, but that they are likely to adjust their frames along the process influenced by continued pressure over time and possible
contextual factors.
2.3 Framing during crises
Before the staged response theory and the relation between framing contests and political outcomes can be explained, it is necessary to discuss the different frames that can be used by mayors and their political opponents in the aftermath of a crisis.
Crises have a socially constructed nature, actors confronted with the same set of events may adopt fundamentally different perspectives (Boin et al., 2008). Framing can therefore be seen as a method of constructing the nature of a crisis. As Entman argues:
‘To frame is to select some aspects of a perceived reality and make them more salient in a communicating text, in such a way as to promote a particular problem definition, causal interpretation, moral evaluation, and/or treatment recommendation for the item described (Entman, 1993:52).’
In their article Boin, ‘t Hart and McConnell describe three types of framing strategies that represent such selective aspects of a perceived reality regarding crisis, namely: denial, critical threat, and critical opportunity (Boin et al., 2008). These different crisis frames all represent different perspectives on the significance of the events as well as its causality (Boin et al., 2008).
The first ‘denial frame’ interprets the events in question as not more than an unfortunate incident (Boin et al., 2008:84). This framing strategy describes the events as independently from the influence of the specific office holders and policies into question and downplays the idea that the events should have any political or policy consequences (Boin et al., 2008). Proponents of this frame type seek to minimize event significance by denying the occurrence of a crisis (Boin et al., 2008).
13 In addition, the second ‘critical threat frame’ presents the events as a threat towards the collective good embodied in the status quo of which current policies and practices are part (Boin et al., 2008:84). This framing strategy tends to recognize the event significance but defends the office-holders and status quo policies against critics (Boin et al., 2008). It seeks to ‘exogenize’ the causality of the events and therewith accountability and blame (Boin et al., 2008).
At last, the third ‘critical opportunity frame’ describes the events as a critical opportunity to expose shortcomings of existing policies and practices (Boin et al., 2008:84-85). This framing strategy attacks the office-holders in place and seeks to mobilize support for the removal or substantive alteration of dysfunctional policies and organizations (Boin et al., 2008). This frame type seeks to maximize event significance and ‘endogenize’ accountability and blame (Boin et al., 2008).
The three described crisis frames can be used by office holders and their political opponents and represent their ambitions regarding political and policy outcomes.
2.4 The Staged Response Theory
In addition, to Boin et al. the Staged Response Theory of Hood, Jennings, Hogwood and Beeston (2007) gives theoretical insights regarding the development of used frames over time during a crisis (see figure 1). In general Hood et al. claim that when office-holders respond to a continuing firestorm of public critique they will likely follow a ‘staged retreat under fire’, moving from problem denial through problem admission and responsibility denial, to problem and responsibility admission, see figure 1 (Hood et al., 2007:4-5). Thus in terms of the
different frames described by Boin et al. this idea of a staged response implies that office Table 1: Three crisis frames
(Boin et al., 2008)
Type 1: denial Type 2: critical threat Type 3: critical opportunity Event significance Minimizes significance Acknowledges significance Maximizes significance
Causality No crisis occurred Exogenizes the
cause
Endogenizes the cause
Political stance No blame Diffuses blame Focuses on blame
14 holders are likely to use different frames during different points in time. This notion is
important for the empirical part of this thesis since it provides a structure to examine the development of specific frames used over time during a crisis. Figure 1 shows how this integration of the three crisis frames of Boin et al. with the staged response model can be visualized.
Figure 1: Staged Response and crisis frames
Hood et al. assume that only if the problem denial stance (frame type 1) is, or becomes, unfeasible, office holders will choose a problem admission stance (Hood et al., 2007). And even in that case they expect officer holders their preferred initial position to be one in which problem admission is matched with responsibility denial (frame type 2), claiming that blame has yet to be determined or that it lies elsewhere (Hood et al., 2007). And again only if that position becomes unfeasible they might expect office holders to move to a third and less politically comfortable stage, namely admission both of the problem as well as responsibility for it (frame type 3) (Hood et al., 2007).
It is important to note that Hood et al. furthermore add that while blame-avoiding office holders might normally be expected to stage their response to a ‘blame firestorm’ in that sequence, they do not argue that every aftermath will follow the same pattern (Hood et al., 2007). They argue that for some kinds of crisis a stance of problem denial can be short-lived or indefensible from the start, making office holders to move directly to the ‘problem
15 admission, responsibility denial’ stage (Hood et al., 2007). In addition, some kind of crisis would never go beyond the stage of problem denial or the stage of problem admission but denial of responsibility (Hood et al., 2007). Hood et al. argue that only if pressure is continued over a longer period they might expect the more exposed defensive positions on the bottom-right corner of figure 1 to be reached (Hood et al., 2007). Paragraph 2.6 further discusses the different contextual factors that could influence the staged response and the framing contest and eventual the political outcomes of a crisis.
In sum, both Boin et al. and Hood et al. identify three types of frames that are likely to be used by office holders in times of crisis. Hood et al. add an important dimension by
arguing that these different frames are not used in a static sense during the entire aftermath of a crisis, but are likely to be selectively deployed depending on the specific stages of the crisis. Frames are used in a dynamic way and can change over time.
2.5 Framing contests3 and success in terms of political outcomes The previous paragraphs have outlined the theoretical assumptions regarding different
framing strategies and the point in time during a crisis that they are likely to be used by office holders. These theoretical assumptions are important for the first more descriptive part of the central research question aiming to identify the different framing strategies used by mayors and their political opponents during the examined mini-crises. This paragraph further elaborates on the theoretical assumptions regarding the second part of the research question ‘to what extent and how are these (framing) strategies successful in terms of political outcomes?’.
2.5.1. Framing strategies and political outcomes
Coombs and Holladay in their research of 2002 empirically confirm the idea that the more office holders can be held responsible for a crisis the more likely they are to suffer
reputational damage from it (Coombs and Holladay, 2002). Based on the assumption that office holders aim at political survival during the aftermath of a crisis, a successful political outcome can be defined as an outcome in which the office holder remains in office and suffers limited to no reputational damage.
Boin et al. provide a matrix (table 3) in which they seek to predict the success of a specific frame type in terms of political outcomes (Boin et al., 2008:89). The success of the
3
Based on differences between adopted frames due to a tendency of both the mayor and his political opponents to exploit the crisis for their own political gain, a clash of frames emerges in the thesis referred to as the framing contest.
16 mayor in terms of political outcomes can be divided in three categories: ‘elite damage, elite escape, and elite rejuvenation (Boin et al., 2008:91)’. Elite damage occurs when office holders their political careers, aspirations and reputations are damaged as a result of crisis-induced political blame (Boin et al., 2008). Elite damage can be seen as the most unsuccessful political outcome. In addition, elite escape occurs when office holders are able to avoid political
damage and blame in the aftermath of a crisis (Boin et al., 2008). Elite escape is therefore seen as a successful political outcome. At last, elite rejuvenation occurs when office holders not only escape damage but also benefit from their crisis performance (Boin et al., 2008). Elite rejuvenation is seen as the most successful political outcome (paragraph 3.3.1 further operationalizes these different categories of political outcomes).
Table 2: Political outcomes and degree of success
Political outcome category Degree of success for the mayor
Elite rejuvenation Most successful outcome
Elite escape Successful outcome
Elite damage Unsuccessful outcome
The matrix of Boin et al. (table 3) provides several theoretical assumptions regarding the political outcomes of clashes between different frames (Boin et al., 2008). Based on the assumption that the office holders’ primary concern is their own political survival, boxes I and III are the most successful outcomes (Boin et al., 2008). In addition, the consideration
whether to deploy a framing strategy aiming to accept or deny responsibility depends on their assessment of the opponent’s determination and ability to damage them or not (Boin et al.,
2008). Office holders could choose to proactively accept responsibility in order to appear strong, fair and self-reflective (Boin et al., 2008). On the other hand, if they make the more
Table 3: Political outcomes matrix (Boin et al., 2008)
Political opponents Mayor
Absolve blame Focus blame
Accept responsibility I. Blame minimization: Elite escape likely
II. Blame acceptance: Elite damage likely Deny responsibility III. Blame avoidance:
Elite escape likely
IV. Blame showdown: Elite damage, escape, rejuvenation all possible
17 likely assessment that the opposition seeks to inflict damage, denying responsibility seems the better strategy in order to avoid the most unsuccessful scenario (box II) (Boin et al., 2008). However, as the matrix shows even an attempt to deny responsibility may end in elite
damage, following a ‘blame showdown’ in which the different political outcomes are equally presumable (box IV) (Boin et al., 2008).
In general, Boin et al. assume that a blame showdown (box IV) is the most likely shape the framing contest in the aftermath of a crisis will take (Boin et al., 2008). In addition, they argue that blame minimization by denying responsibility by the office holders as well as absolving blame by their opponents (box I) is the least likely form since in practice this combination rarely occurs, which is in line with the claim of Coombs and Holladay that taking responsibility generally leads to reputational damage (Boin et al., 2008). At last, they state that blame avoidance (box III) and blame acceptance (box II) should be seen as the low to medium likely outcomes (Boin et al., 2008).
The matrix provided by Boin et al. is important since it emphasizes that the political outcomes and the degree of success are not solely explained by the one sided framing efforts of the office holders, but are the result of a framing contest between the office holders and their political opponents. The next paragraph elaborates in more detail on these ‘political opponents’.
2.5.2. ‘Framing coalitions’ of political opponents
In order to examine the political outcomes of the deployed framing strategy of the mayor this research not only examines the frame(s) used by the particular mayor but also the frames used by his political opponents. With political opponents is meant the municipality council
members representing specific parties within the council. The formal role of council members is to control the mayor, which makes them the ‘natural’ opponents of the mayor in the sense that they have to evaluate the performances of the mayor, the effectiveness of existing policies, the need for new policies, and eventually the position of the mayor (Politiek
Compendium, 2012). It is therefore important to emphasize that the framing contests between the mayor and his political opponents (the council members) mainly takes place within the context of the municipality debate. The council meeting is furthermore the arena where final political decisions about the position of the mayor take place and thus political outcomes can be identified (Politiek Compendium, 2012). In analyzing the framing contest between the mayor and his political opponents this thesis therefore focuses in particular on these council debates.
18 In order to analyze the used frames by the opponents this study builds upon the
concept of discourse coalitions developed by Maarten Hajer (1989). Hajer defines discourse as a selective composition of ideas, concepts, and categories present in the form of language in certain framing efforts (Hajer, 1989:249). A discourse coalition emerges when a group of actors, in this case members of the municipality council, forms a inter-subjective
interpretation of events (Hajer, 1989). Such a consensual interpretation will then serve as a dominant force behind the used frames of a particular group of opponents. Within this study the idea of discourse coalitions is transformed to ‘framing coalitions’, meaning that these coalitions have specific inter-subjective understandings regarding the nature of a specific mini-crisis and the political and policy consequences.
2.6 Contextual factors influencing the framing contest
There are several contextual factors that could influence the framing contest between office holders and their political opponents and therefore eventual political outcomes. Contextual factors are thus important to explain potential variety in the crisis responses and deviation from the standard patterns within the framing contest described in the previous sections.
2.6.1 Mini-crisis with a clear problem
Hood et al. and Boin et al. argue that the specific problem related to the particular crisis could make a stance of problem denial impossible from the beginning (Hood et al., 2007; Boin et al., 2008). This is generally the result of a situation in which there is a common understanding at an early stage of the crisis as being caused by endogenous factors (Boin et al, 2008). For instance, in the case discussed by Hood et al. about the Scottish ‘exam fiasco’ of 2000 in which a substantial number of exam grades was missing due to a failure of the public
examination system (Hood et al, 2007). In such a case it is likely that from the start the crisis is perceived as caused by internal problems, making problem denial an impossible stance. On the other hand, there are examples of crises that are likely to be perceived as exogenously caused outside of the influence of office holders and existing policies, but from the start are consensually perceived as a problem, for instance terrorist attacks (Hood et al, 2007). In such cases problem denial seems not a likely initial stance. Independent from its causality a crisis can thus have a clear undeniable problem from the beginning, which could influence to course of the framing contest in the aftermath of the crisis.
19 2.6.2. Media
Media (traditional and social media) can be seen as ways for office holders and their political opponents to communicate their frames outside the formal political arena, in this thesis the municipality council (Boin et al., 2008). However, as Boin et al. argue especially traditional mass media do not exclusively serve as communication channels, but have the power to influence how frames are broadcasted outside the framing contest that takes place within the municipality council (Boin et al., 2008). The media in terms of traditional broadcasting agencies, can therefore negatively or positively influence the collective image about the performance of the mayor and role of status quo policies in the aftermath of the crisis (Boin et al, 2008).
Regarding the influence of the media on the framing contest in the aftermath of a crisis, this thesis thus takes the point of departure that outside the municipality council the media can positively and negatively influence how the frames of both the mayor and his political opponents are represented (or misrepresented). The media can therefore potentially influence how frames are represented prior and after to the council meeting on the topic of the particular mini-crisis. However, the media has less influence on how the clash of frames within the council develops during the meeting and on the specific ‘majority’ understanding that emerges during the debate about the mini-crisis and the role of mayor and status quo policies. In order to determine potential contextual influence of the media in the framing contest within the council meeting, this thesis therefore looks at how this influence is perceived by the mayor and his political opponents (see figure 2).
2.6.3. Time in office
Another contextual factor that can potentially influence the framing contest is the time the specific office holder has spend in office (Boin et al, 2008). According to Boin et al. office holders that have only served a short time in office are more likely to survive a framing contest than those who have spend a long time in office (Boin et al, 2008). This is because office holders that only served for a short period are to a smaller degree seen as
representatives of status quo policies and practices by political opponents (Boin et al, 2008). It is thus likely that the time an office holder has spend in office could be a potential factor influencing the extent to which the frame of that office holder is attacked by its opponents during the framing contest.
20 2.6.4. Official inquiry
At last, the framing contest in the aftermath of a crisis could be influenced by and official inquiry that is issued as a result of the crisis (Boin et al, 2008). This influence on the framing contest could be in two ways. First, by issuing an inquiry into the occurred events, the mayor and his political opponents can postpone specific claims about the role of the mayor and status quo policies at the beginning of the aftermath (Hood et al, 2007). This could result in unclear and indecisive frames till the moment the conclusions of the inquiry are published (Hood et al, 2007). Second, the conclusions of an inquiry can form a contextual pressure that influences the used frames of the mayor and his political opponents regarding the claims about the role of the mayor and status quo policies (Hood et al, 2007; Boin et al, 2008).
2.7 Summary and operationalization table
This study looks into the question what different framing strategies are used by Dutch mayors during riot related mini-crisis over time and to what extent and how these strategies are successful in terms of political outcomes. The theoretical model presented at the next page summarizes the central theoretical aims of this study. First, the assumption is that mayors as well as their political opponents adopt crisis frames in the aftermath of a mini-crisis, that take the form of denial, critical threat or critical opportunity. Based on differences between these adopted frames due to a tendency of both the mayor and his political opponents to exploit the crisis for their own political gain, a clash of frames emerges in the model referred to as the framing contest. In addition, this study assumes that the framing contests and the used framing strategy of the mayor is linked to certain political outcomes. It is important to note that this study does not claim there is a causal relationship between framing strategies and political outcomes, but that they do coincide regarding their objectives. For instance, using a frame of denial can be regarded successful when the political outcomes argue that no
resignation nor great reputational damage took place.
The theoretical model furthermore shows that the framing contest is influenced by the elements ‘staged response’ and ‘contextual factors’, and that the staged response is potentially influenced by contextual factors. The overall expectation of the model is therefore that the way in which the used frames by the mayor and his political opponents clash within the framing contest is influenced by contextual factors and the ability of the mayor to adjust is frame in light of continued pressures. In addition, the nature of the framing contest (clash or no clash) is linked to the success in terms of political outcomes.
21 Theoretical model
The next ‘Methodology’ chapter further explains the indicators that have been used in order to identify certain frames and political outcomes. It furthermore addresses the case selection, methods of analysis, and issues around the validity and reliability of this research.
Framing contest
Clash of frame types: Denial Critical threat Critical opportunity
Political outcomes
Elite rejuvenation (most successful)
Elite escape (successful) Elite damage (unsuccessful) Contextual factors:
Crisis with clear problem Media Time in office Official inquiry Staged response Adjustment of frame during aftermath
22 Figure 2
Theory
Concept Definition Indicators Data sources
Theory of crisis exploitation (Boin et al., 2008). ‘crisis frames’
Crises have a socially constructed nature, since actors confronted with the same set of events may adopt fundamentally different perspectives (Entman, 1993; Boin et al., 2008).
Boin et al. (2008:84) distinguish three types of crisis frames that can be used by actors:
1) denial
2) critical threat 3) critical opportunity
Indicators of used crisis frame (actor refers to the actors ‘mayor’ and ‘political opponent’):
Denial:
The actor states that no crisis occurred
The actor minimizes the significance of events The actor states that office holders are not to blame
for the occurred events
The actor argues to go back to business as usual Critical threat:
The actor states that a crisis occurred, but exogenizes the cause
The actor acknowledges event significance
The actor argues that blame for the occurred events is diffuse/not clear
The actor defends the status quo policy practices Critical opportunity:
The actor states that a crisis occurred and endogenizes the cause
The actor maximizes events significance
The actor focuses on the question of blame around the occurred events
The actor attacks the status quo policy practices
Mayor - Press statements of the mayor - Interviews of the mayor with broadcasting agencies - Statements of the
mayor during the municipality council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis Political opponents - Interviews of the political opponents with broadcasting agencies - Statements of the political opponents during the municipality council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis
‘contextual factors’
The framing contest in the aftermath of a crisis can be influenced by contextual factors (Hood et al, 2007; Boin et al., 2008).
Mini-crisis with clear problem:
A majority of the municipality council acknowledges at an early stage that there is a specific problem related to the particular mini-crisis
Media: Mayor - Press statements of the mayor - Interviews of the mayor with
23 The mayor or a political opponent states that the
media has misrepresented his narrative
The mayor or a political opponent states that the media has confirmed their narratives
Time in office:
The political opponents state that the mayor is less responsible for the occurred events due to his short time in office
The political opponents state that the mayor is to blame for the occurred events due to his long time in office
Official inquiry:
In response to the occurred events an official inquiry is issued
The inquiry evaluates the policies in place and the performances of the mayor during the mini-crisis
broadcasting agencies - Statements of the
mayor during the municipality council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis Political opponents - Interviews of the political opponents with broadcasting agencies - Statements of the political opponents during the municipality council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis
‘political outcomes’
A framing contest can have different political implications: elite damage, elite escape, and elite gain (Boin et al., 2008:91)
Elite damage:
The mayor resigned after the mini-crisis;
Most municipality council members fully blame the mayor and his performances during the crisis.
Elite escape:
The mayor stayed in power after the mini-crisis; Most municipality council partly blame the mayor
and his performances during the crisis.
Elite gain/rejuvenation:
The mayor stayed in power after the mini-crisis; Most municipality council members praise the
mayor and his performances during the crisis.
Mayor
- Statements of the mayor during the municipality council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis Political opponents - Statements of the political opponents during the municipality council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis
24 - Vote results on
‘motions of distrust’ within the council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis
3. Research Design
This chapter explains the methodological approach of this thesis. Attention is paid to the used methodological strategy, methods of data gathering, methods of data analysis and important validity and reliability issues.
3.1 Multiple and most similar case study design
3.1.1 Case study
In order to answer the central research question, ‘What framing strategies are used by Dutch mayors and their political opponents during ‘riot related’ mini-crises and to what extent and how are the strategies of the mayors successful in terms of political outcomes?’, this research uses a qualitative approach and a multiple case study design. The goal of this research is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the link between framing strategies and political outcomes during riot related mini-crises. A case study design provides the best strategy to achieve this goal, since it aims to gain in-depth understanding of a single or small number of cases set in real world contexts (Yin, 2012). An important feature of the case study design is furthermore the assumption that analyzing the context and other relevant conditions related to the cases is crucial for understanding these cases (Yin, 2012). This element of the case study design is important for this research since it analyzes the link between framing strategies and political outcomes in light a staged response and contextual factors. Framing strategies and political outcomes are not approached as isolated variables, but as context dependent phenomena. The approach of this research can therefore also be described as a ‘holistic’ multiple case study design, aimed at studying a small number of mini-crises within different contexts.
3.1.2 Multiple and most similar cases
The choice for a ‘multiple’ case study design is based on the possibility to explore differences within and between cases with the goal to replicate findings across cases (Baxter and Jack, 2008). This aim to compare between cases is crucial for the explanatory part of this research focused at explaining how the framing strategies of mayors are successful in terms of political outcomes. Furthermore, this research has used most similar cases. Paragraph 3.2.2 further explains the elements on which the cases are most similar. Keeping the cases similar on
26 important elements enables this research to identify certain varieties or patterns in outcome regarding the linkage between crisis framing and political outcomes (Gerring, 2007).
3.2 Methods of data gathering
3.2.1 Cases
First of all, cases within this research are mini-crises. A mini-crisis is defined as an event with potentially disruptive effects on local societies, but with a limited number of victims and/or material damage (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013:11). This research looks into three mini-crises: the riots in the Hoek van Holland in 2009 during the Veronica Sunset Grooves, the Project X riots in Haren of 2012 organized through Facebook, and the riots in the Schilderswijk in the Hague of 2014 as a result of escalated pro-Gaza and pro-Patria demonstrations. The selected duration and thus the analyzed period of each mini-crises is based on the following criteria. First, this research aims to analyze the used framing strategies in the aftermath of a mini-crises and the political outcomes. The needed data therefore ranges from the first press statement given by the mayor directly after the occurred events to the final debate on the topic of the crisis within the municipality council. The final debate is a logical way to demarcate the end of the aftermath since these debates generally entail final voting procedures (e.g. ‘motions of distrust’) on the position of the mayor and therefore give valuable information about the eventual political outcomes of the mini-crisis (Politiek
Compendium, 2012). Second, the period between the first press statement of the mayor and the last debate on the topic of the mini-crises enables this research do identify the role of possible official inquiries that take place within this period. In addition, this has led to the following demarcation of the analyzed mini-crises:
The riots in the Hoek van Holland in (23-08-2009 till 17-12-2009) The Project X riots in Haaren (22-09-2012 till 12-03-2013)
The riots in the Schilderswijk in the Hague (29-07-2014 till 14-08-2014)
Most similar case selection technique
As argued earlier the three mini-crises are selected based on their most similar nature. In the first place all three mini-crises are examples of local mini-crises. In order to determine whether particular occurred events can be described as local mini-crisis this research uses the conceptual approach of Van Duin and Wijkhuijs (2013). They argue that crisis and disasters always have a physical and social component in the sense that there are many victims and/or
27 extensive material damage leading to the disruption of society (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013:11). In the case of ‘mini-crises’ the physical component is limited, they can occur without (or with a small amount of) deadly victims or material damage (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013). However, similar as during ‘regular’ crises and disasters, mini-crises result in a disruption of society, but in the case of mini-crises this disruption primarily takes place at a local level (Van Duin and Wijkhuijs, 2013). It is furthermore important to emphasize that this element of disruption in the case selection of this research does not refer to any
objectively determined degree of disruption, but to perceived disruption by the local community.
Following the first criteria of Van Duin and Wijkhuijs the selected mini-crises, Hoek
van Holland riots, the Haren Project X riots and the Schilderswijk riots, are mini-crises in the sense that they all had a relatively small physical impact but did have a disruptive effect on the local community. The Hoek van Holland riots resulted in one deadly victim and relatively small material damage in the sense that rioters thrown bottles, bikes and fences (COT and Beke, 2009). The riots however had disruptive effects on the local community since present police officers, emergency workers and visitors of the festival perceived it as a traumatic experience and local trust in the law enforcement capabilities of the local authorities has been compromised (COT and Beke, 2009; Gemeenteraad Rotterdam, 2009).
The Haren Project X riots did not know any deadly victims and resulted in relatively limited material damage in the sense that local businesses were subject to looting and
vandalism (AD, 2012; NOS, 2012; RTV Noord, 2012; Volkskrant, 2012). Despite the fact that this was perceived as severe damage by the local community of Haren, it is relatively small when compared to for instance the firework disasters in Enschede of May 2000 in which 23 persons died and 200 houses were damaged or completely destroyed (Gemeente Enschede, 2015). In the case of the Haren riots perceived disruption occurred in the sense local residents
experienced severe violence and the incapability of the local authorities to maintain public order (Gemeenteraad Haren, 2012). At last, the Schilderswijk riots had a relatively small physical impact since no death occurred and only limited damage was inflicted to public property due to the use of sidewalk tiles as weapons against the authorities (NOS, 2014 I; NRC, 2014; Omroep West, 2014; Volkskrant, 2014). Perceived disruption was presence in the sense that the media and some local politicians fostered the idea of chaos and anarchy in the area (Gemeenteraad Den Haag, 2014; NOS, 2014 II; Telegraaf, 2014; Volkskrant, 2014).
Next to their specific nature as local mini-crises the selected cases are similar in the sense that they are all dealing with riots in the public sphere and required actions from the
28 mayor. In short all three cases thus contain a riot related mini-crisis in which actions of the mayor were required. The choice for a most similar case selection technique is based on the idea that the goal of the research is to explore the mechanism that links a specific used framing strategy by a mayor to a particular political outcome. The aim is thus to explore variety in outcome between the different cases regarding the theoretical linkage between crisis framing and political outcomes, while they are most similar on earlier outlined elements (Gerring, 2007). It is furthermore important to note such a most similar approach can lead to confirmation of the theoretical link between crisis framing and political outcomes as
explained in the theoretical chapter, as well as to the identification of additional factors explaining the mechanism (Gerring, 2007).
3.2.2 Units of analysis and units of observation
The units of analysis of the research are the mayors and their political opponents. The mayors are analyzed based on their formal role as crisis manager, as well as first citizen (in Dutch ‘burgervader’) during mini-crises in the Netherlands (Nederlands Genootschap van
Burgemeesters, 2015). The political opponents in this research are the municipality council members with the formal role to control and evaluate the mayor and local policies. The statements of the mayor and his political opponents within the selected period of the mini-crisis serve as the basis for analyzing the units of observation:
The frames used by the mayor
The frames used by the political opponents Political outcomes of the framing contest Contextual factors.
Frames used by the mayor
Within the different mini-crises this research has examined the frames used by the mayor based on their press statements, statements in media interviews and statements during
municipality council meetings. These data sources have been selected based on the following criteria. First, they need to fit within the selected period of each mini-crises ranging from the first press statement of the mayor on the occurred events till the last council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis (see paragraph 3.2.1). Second, the sources need to provide information about the specific crisis frame used by the mayor. Based on these two criteria the data sources have been chronologically selected within the selected time period of the mini-crisis. In
29 addition, a triangulation of data sources has been applied by making use of video recordings and textual reports of press statements and media interviews, as well as textual reports of municipality council meetings. Triangulation of data sources enhances construct validity (see paragraph 3.3.1).
Frames used by the political opponents
Next to the frames of the mayors this thesis has analyzed the frames used by their political opponents based on their statements in media interviews and statements during the
municipality council meetings. These data sources have been selected based on similar criteria as has been used for the frames of the mayor. First, they need to fit within the selected period of each mini-crises ranging from the first press statement of the mayor on the occurred events till the last council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis. Second, the sources need to
provide information about the specific crisis frames used by the political opponents. Based on these two criteria the data sources have been chronologically selected within the selected time period of the mini-crisis. Again this research used for the cases where data sources were sufficient, a triangulation of data sources by making use of video recordings and textual reports of media interviews and textual reports of municipality council meetings.
Political outcomes of the framing contest
The political outcomes (elite rejuvenation, elite escape, or elite damage) of the framing contest between the mayor and his political opponents have been analyzing based on press statements, statements in media interviews and statements during municipality council meetings of the mayor. In addition, the political opponents their statements in media interviews and statements during the municipality council meetings have been analyzed. Furthermore, vote results on ‘motions of distrust’ within the reports of the council meetings on the topic of the particular mini-crisis have been analyzed. These data sources have been selected based on the following criteria. First, they need to fit within the selected period of each mini-crises ranging from the first press statement of the mayor on the occurred events till the last council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis. Second, the sources need to provide information about the specific political outcome for the mayor. Based on these two criteria the data sources have been chronologically selected within the selected time period of the mini-crisis. Also regarding the political outcomes the aim has been a triangulation of data sources
30 by analyzing video recordings and textual reports of press statements and media interviews and textual reports of municipality council meetings.
Contextual factors
The contextual factors (‘crisis with a clear problem’, ‘media’, ‘time in office’, and ‘official inquiry’) have been analyzed based on the press statements, statements in media interviews and statements during municipality council meetings of the mayor, and based on statements in media interviews and statements during the municipality of the political opponents. The contextual factors thus have been identified based on statements of the mayor and his political opponents (see paragraph 3.3.1 for a more detailed discussion). Again these data sources have been selected based on similar criteria as the previous described data sources. First, they need to fit within the selected period of each mini-crises ranging from the first press statement of the mayor on the occurred events till the last council meeting on the topic of the mini-crisis. Second, the sources need to provide information about the specific contextual factor. Based on these two criteria the data sources have been chronologically selected within the selected time period of the mini-crisis.
3.3 Methods of data analysis
3.3.1 Qualitative content analysis
This research has conducted a qualitative content analysis in order to analyze the previously described data sources. Qualitative content analysis is a systematic technique used to analyze the informational contents of textual and in this research also video data (Mayring, 2000). The aim of this technique is to systematically categorize data in order to make sense of it (Miles and Huberman, 1994). This research made use of predetermined theoretically based categories for identifying crisis frames, political outcomes and contextual factors. In addition, these categories are applied to the data through close reading.
Used framing strategies
The strategy that has been adopted in order to identify the used framing strategies by the mayors and their political opponents, has been to examine the data sources on the use of specific paragraphs, sentences and words that represent an indicator of a particular type of
31 frame. In table 4 the indicators are outlined that have been used to identify the different types of frames. Based on these indictors the following system is used to analyze the different statements:
Table 4: Code system different frame types
Code Frame type Indicator Description
0 Denial Significance The actor4 minimizes the significance of
events
1 Denial Causality The actor states that no crisis occurred
2 Denial Political stance The actor states that office holders are not
to blame for the occurred events
3 Denial Policy stance The actor argues to go back to business as
usual
4 Critical Threat Significance The actor acknowledges event significance
5 Critical Threat Causality The actor states that a crisis occurred, but
exogenizes5 the cause
6 Critical Threat Political stance The actor argues that blame for the occurred events is diffuse/not clear
7 Critical Threat Policy stance The actor defends the status quo policy
practices
8 Critical opportunity Significance The actor maximizes events significance 9 Critical opportunity Causality The actor states that a crisis occurred and
endogenizes6 the cause
10 Critical opportunity Political stance The actor focuses on the question of blame around the occurred events
11 Critical opportunity Policy stance The actor attacks the status quo policy practices
Political outcomes
The second part of the research question examines 1) to what extent the framing strategies of the mayors have been successful in terms of political outcomes, and 2) how this success can be explained. The political outcomes give solely information about the extent of success of the framing strategies of the mayors. This research, however, also seeks to provide insights in how this success can be explained. These explanations will be based on the earlier described assumptions related to the stage response theory (paragraph 2.4) and possible contextual factors outlined in the next subparagraph.
4 With actor is meant the mayor or the particular opposing political opponent or discourse coalition. 5 This refers to the actor stating that the crisis is not directly related to the performances of the mayor and followed policies during the occurred events.
6 This refers to the actor stating that the crisis is directly related to the performances of the mayor and followed policies during the occurred events.
32 Returning to the political outcomes, the different outcomes have been identified based on two central elements. First, the support for the mayor of the council during the last council meeting on the topic of the particular mini-crisis. Second, critique on the performances of the mayor amongst the council members. Based on these two elements indicators have been attributed to the different categories of political outcomes: elite damage, elite escape, or elite rejuvenation. As described in paragraph 2.5.1 these three categories represent the degree of success in political outcomes in terms of unsuccessful, successful, and most successful outcomes. Table 5 shows the particular indicators that have been used. Based on these indicators municipality council reports related to each mini-crises have been researched on voting results. In addition, the frames of the political opponents analyzed and presented in the first section of the analysis have been used to determine how the council views the
performance of the mayor during the mini-crisis.
Table 5: Indicators political outcome Categories of political
outcomes
Indicator
Category 1 Elite damage The mayor resigned after the mini-crisis
Elite damage Most municipality council members fully blame the mayor and his performances during the crisis.
Category 2 Elite escape The mayor stayed in power after the mini-crisis
Elite escape Most municipality council partly blame the mayor and his performances during the crisis.
Category 3 Elite rejuvenation The mayor stayed in power after the mini-crisis
Elite rejuvenation Most municipality council members praise the mayor and his performances during the crisis.
Contextual factors
In order to explain how certain framing strategies result in particular political outcomes this research examined contextual factors related to each analyzed mini-crisis. These contextual factors could potentially influence the framing contest and therefore the political outcomes. The strategy that has been adopted is as follows. Regarding the contextual factor ‘crisis with a clear problem’, the identified frames of the political opponents have been used to identify whether a majority of the council at an early stage of the crisis acknowledged that there was a specific problem related to the examined mini-crisis. In addition, with regard to the contextual factors ‘media’ and ‘time in office’ the data sources (different statements of the mayor and his political opponents) have been examined on the use of specific paragraphs, sentences and
