Military Effectiveness in
An Age of Consequences
Climate Change and its effects on Military Presence
and Security in Mali
Rosalien Wagenaar
Source Cover Photo:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/unpeacekeeping/26034431323/in/album-72157634451123938/
Military Effectiveness in An
Age of Consequences
Climate Change and its effects on Military Presence and Security in
Mali
This Thesis is Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in Political Science (International Relations)
University of Amsterdam (Amsterdam)
By Rosalien Wagenaar (10318127), rosalienwagenaar@gmail.com
Supervisor: Dr. R.J. Pistorius
Second Reader: Dr. L.W. Fransen
Word Count: 21.755
23 June 2017
Preface
Before you lies the thesis ‘’Military Effectiveness in An Age of Consequences: Climate Change and its effects on Military Presence and Security in Mali’’. It has been written to fulfill the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Political Science (International Relations) at the University of Amsterdam.
The topic of my master thesis has arisen from an interest in climate change, security and the military. This special interest has developed during my Bachelor of Science and Master’s program at the University of Amsterdam, where I participated in many courses that focused on these topics.
I was engaged in researching and writing this thesis from February to June 2017. The research was difficult, but conducting intensive investigation has allowed me to answer the main research question. It has been a period of intense learning for me, not only in the scientific arena, but also on a personal level. During the career that now lies ahead of me I am inspired and ambitious to continue to explore the relationship between climate change and security.
Acknowledgements
I would like to reflect on the people who have supported and helped me throughout this period. I would first like to thank my supervisor Dr. Robin Pistorius for his guidance, advice and support during this process. I would also like to thank Dr. Luc Fransen for taking the time to read and assess this thesis as a second reader. Furthermore, I would like to thank my friends and family for their support. Finally, I wish to thank all of the respondents, without whose cooperation and inspiration I would not have been able to conduct this analysis.
I hope you enjoy reading my thesis.
Rosalien Wagenaar Heemstede, June 23, 2017
Abstract
Military leaders are increasingly expressing concern about the significant risk climate change poses to security. However, the ways in which the effects of climate change will affect security at various levels are still far from clear. Currently, there is a lack of attention and uncertainty about how climate security challenges should be approached. Also, the effects of climate change on military effectiveness remain unknown. Policymakers acknowledge that progress on preparing militaries for climate security threats has been slow and limited. If the connections between climate change, security and the military are identified, governments or the UN Security Council might be forced to take action.
Through the study of the current military presence in Mali this thesis aims to fill knowledge gaps on how climate change affects military effectiveness, and aims to provide empirical evidence for unraveling some of the complex linkages between climate change and security. To this end, the research question is as follows: What are the risks and impacts of climate change for military presence
in Mali, and what are the key policy and governance challenges at the intersection of climate change and security in the 21st century?
The research question has been answered through a case study. For this case study, the findings were obtained from literature study and were tested and complemented by conducted interviews with various experts involved in military presence in Mali.
This thesis concludes that, 1) Climate change acts as a threat multiplier and leads to insecurity in Mali, 2) Climate change leads to scarcer resources in Mali and as a consequence tensions rise, 3) Climate change indirectly has an impact on MINUSMA through changing the operating environment, 4) Temperature rise and extreme weather events directly affect military effectiveness, 5) Increased adaptive capacity at multiple levels is vital to improving the systemic ability to anticipate and respond to change rather than simply reacting to threats.
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Tables 8
Abbreviations 9
1. INTRODUCTION 10 2. A THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY AND THE MILITARY 14 Introduction……….15 2.1 The Changing Definition of Security……….15 2.2 Widening and Deepening of Security: Environmental and Climate Security………. 16 2.2.1 Climate Change and State Security………17 2.2.2 Climate Change and Human Security………..17 2.3 Seeking conceptual clarity………. 17 Conclusion………...…………. 20
3. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 21 Introduction……….22 3.1 Research Question………..……….22 3.2 Hypotheses…..……….22 3.3 Unit of Analysis.……….23 3.4 Case Selection……….24 3.4.1 Mali Country Overview……….24 3.4.2 MINUSMA………...………..25 3.5 Data Collection……….………. 26 3.5.1 Primary and Secondary sources……….26 3.5.2 Interviews………...………...………..26 3.5.3 Data Analysis………...………...………..………...…..26 3.6 Validity and Reliability……….……….27 Conclusion………...…………. 27
4. IN THE FRONTLINES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 28 Introduction……….29 4.1 Climate Change in Mali: Trends and Vulnerabilities…..……….29 4.1.1 Trends………...……….…….29 4.1.2 Vulnerabilities………...………...………...………..30 4.2 Climate Change as Threat Multiplier………...……….31 4.2.1 The Poverty Trap…………...……….……….31 4.2.2 Weak Governance and Institutions……….…..31 4.2.3 Climate Change and Conflict over Resources………...…..………..………..32 4.2.3.1 Identity and livelihood-based tension………...………..………..33 4.2.3.2 Extremisms, criminality and illicit activities..………..……….……….34 4.3 Instrument of consequences: Indirect Military Impacts of Climate Change………...….35 Conclusion………..……….………. 35
5. MILITARY PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY 38 Introduction……….39 5.1 Perceived Risks for Military Presence in Mali ………..……….39 5.2 Perceived Impacts for Military Presence in Mali…..………...……….41 5.3
The Consequences of Climate Change on Military Effectiveness.………...……41 Conclusion……….43
6. POLICY AND GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES 45 Introduction……….46 6.1 Taking up the Security Challenge of Climate Change.…..……….……….46 6.1.1 Climate Change……….……….47 6.1.2 Scarcity: adaptation, mitigation, resilience……….……….48 6.1.3 Climate Insecurity……….……….……….50 6.2 Integrating climate action and international peacebuilding efforts ………...……. 50 6.2.1 Creating a new paradigm for action……….……….51 6.3 Comprehensive Solutions for Complex Problems………..…. 52 6.4 Military Engagement in Climate Security ………….………..…. 53 Conclusion………..……….………. 54
7. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 57 References 61 Appendix I: Compilation of environmental threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks 72 Appendix II: Trends and Vulnerabilities 73 Appendix III: Interviews 77 III.I Interview Participants 77 III.II Interview Questionnaires (Dutch) 78
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1: Climate Change as Threat Multiplier
18
Figure 2: The Connection Between Climate Change and Climate Insecurity
18
Figure 3: The Connection between Climate Change and Military Effectiveness 19
Figure 4: Map of Mali and the Operating Area of MINUSMA
24
Figure 5: MINUSMA Facts
25
Figure 6: Temperatures and Precipitation trends
73
Figure 7: Population Growth in Mali
74
Figure 8: Migration trend Mali
74
Figure 9: Conflict trends in Mali
75
Figure 10: Conflict Vulnerability Monitor
76
Figure 11: Climate Change Vulnerability Monitor
76
Table 1: Compilation of environmental threats, challenges, vulnerabilities 72
and risks
Abbreviations
ACLED
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project
CERF
Central Emergency Response Fund
EU
European Union
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MAB
Military Advisory Board
MINUSMA Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
NGO
Non-Governmental Organization
NDVI
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
OOTW
Operations Other Than War
SDG
Sustainable Development Goal
UCDP
Uppsala Conflict Data Program
UN
United Nations
UNCCD
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
UNEP
United Nations Environment Program
UNDP
United Nations Development Program
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USAID
United States Agency for International Development
Chapter 1
Introduction
History has many examples of military leaders who have suffered at the mercy of climate conditions that they failed to consider adequately, or who have exploited climate conditions to their advantage (Pittenger and Gagosian 2003). An example of this is the Dutch Water Line. In 1672, the Dutch Water line was used successfully against the invasion of the French. However, in strong winters, the defensive value of the Dutch Water Line was decreased. In strong winters the ice on the big rivers and flooded land became thick enough for man and light vehicles to cross. With the second invasion of the French in 1794, the winter was very severe and the flooded land and big rivers were completely frozen. As a consequence, the French were able to concur Holland in 1795 (Kaufman and Kaufman 2014: 2).
Today, there is an expressive number of literature available that portrays climate change as a threat to security. Moreover, military leaders and experts express their concerns about the security implications of climate change.
‘’Some people may have seen climate change for a long time as a hobby for nature lovers, birdwatchers, or – as we used to say in the military – tree huggers. Obviously, the fact that I’m standing here in this uniform, at this conference, shows how times have changed. As the Dutch Chief
of Defense, I can truly say that I’m worried about the effects of climate change…. I believe climate change can be a root cause of conflict, can create breeding grounds for extremism, and can trigger
migration flows... And therefore I believe there is no security without climate security’’.
Speech by Netherlands Chief of Defense, General T.A. Middendorp, on the occasion of the Planetary Security Initiative (Ministry of Defense 2016).
The potential significance of the fact that the world’s military leaders and security institutions increasingly voice their concerns regarding the impacts of climate change corresponds with the fact that there has been a failure to act on the issue (EJF 2014: 38). According to Huntjens and Nachbar (2015), climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing risks to security. In this context, climate change presents both direct and indirect threats to human, national, international security. The threat comes not from climate change itself, but from how it interacts with existing security conditions (CCS 2015). Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the threat of more failed states and potential for conflict (Messer 2010).
The documentary the Age of Consequences (2016) investigates the impacts of climate change on increased resource scarcity, migration, and conflict through the lens of US national security and global stability. This documentary points out that if we go on with business as usual, the consequences of climate change (e.g. waves of refugees, failed states, terrorism) will continue to grow in scale and frequency, with severe implications for peace and security in the 21st century. However, the ways in
which the effects of global warming will affect security at various levels are still far from clear (Huntjens and Nachbar 2015). Of the studies that have been conducted on the relationship between climate change and security largely consists of mixed results (Idem: 6). Research literature does not provide clear evidence that climate change leads to insecurity. This can be a consequence of the lack empirical evidence. Moreover, results have been mixed because of the complexity of causal mechanisms present in different case studies (Ibid).
In addition to exacerbating existing risks to security, it is argued that climate change presents risks to the three elements of military effectiveness: readiness, operations and strategy (CCS 2015). In this context, climate change has direct and indirect impacts on the military. According to Schaik et al. (2015: 36), climate change is likely to affect military operations in two ways. First, climate change will shape the operating environment, roles and missions that armed forces undertake. It is likely to lead to an increased need for responses to instability and a broader variation in types of deployments.
Second, the Ministry of Defense may need to adjust its facilities, infrastructure, training and testing activities, and military capabilities (Ibid). In contrast with the United States, European security strategies seldom include detailed analysis of the risks and expected impacts of climate change, and how to respond to them (Stang 2014). The role of military institutions in public policy debates surrounding climate change and security continues to remain an emerging area of research and understanding. Policymakers acknowledge that progress on adapting and preparing militaries for climate security threats has been slow and limited (Youngs: 2014). This lack of understanding has exposed knowledge gaps. These knowledge gaps include how climate change might affect the peacekeeping objectives, operating environment, critical infrastructure, deployable military capabilities, the health and well-being of its workforce, but also how climate change regulation will impact Defense industry, costs or Defense procurement more broadly.
This thesis wants to address these knowledge gaps and hence will elaborate on the main research question:
What are the risks and impacts of climate change for military presence in Mali, and what are the key policy and governance challenges at the intersection of climate change and security in the 21st century?
Moreover, the existing academic and non-academic literature on climate change, security and the military highlights the need to search for more conceptual clarity. In order to understand the causal mechanisms between climate change and security and its impacts on military effectiveness, this thesis will test three hypotheses by means of conducting a case study. These hypotheses are:
H1: Climate Change is a Threat Multiplier and leads to Climate Insecurity in Mali H2: Climate Change is an indirect threat to Military Effectiveness in Mali
H3: Climate Change is a direct threat to Military Effectiveness in Mali
Through the study of the current military presence in Mali this thesis aims to fill knowledge gaps on how climate change affects military effectiveness, and aims to provide empirical evidence for unraveling some of the complex linkages between climate change and security. The most prominent reason for choosing Mali as a case of study above others is because of its uniqueness of the physical geographical features and the environmental problems that threaten it. Moreover, Mali has requested help from the international community in restoring stability in the country and protecting the civilian population. The United Nation’s instrument for this is the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). For this case study, the findings are obtained from literature study and will be tested and complemented by conducted interviews with various experts involved in military presence in Mali.
This thesis has both an empirical and a theoretical ambition. Empirically this thesis wants to contribute in the first place to a better understanding of the interactions between climate change and security in Mali. Second, this thesis wants to contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on military effectiveness in climate vulnerable countries, such as Mali. Theoretically, this thesis aims to explore in greater detail the connections between climate change and security. It is relevant to critically engage in the climate security debate, because there is a lack of attention and uncertainty about how climate security challenges should be approached. In addition, these links are of interest for policymakers. Some of the climate impacts on security may force governments or the
United Nations Security Council to take actions. The links between climate change and security are not just of interest to policy makers, they also have important implications for security studies as an academic pursuit. This thesis is a call for action and call to rethink how we should approach and incorporate climate security in our security strategies.
Structure
The thesis is divided into seven Chapters. In the next Chapter, the theoretical framework is developed using the key concepts relevant to this study. Chapter two elaborates on the ongoing debate about the definition and interpretation of the term security. Chapter two also seeks for conceptual clarity over the connections between climate change, climate security and the military.
Subsequently, Chapter three elaborates on the research design and methodology of this thesis. This third Chapter introduces the research question and sub-questions, but also the hypotheses. Furthermore, Chapter three presents how data was collected and how it was analyzed throughout this thesis. The data analysis takes place in Chapters four, five and six. Chapter four tests the first and second hypothesis and presents how climate change affects security in Mali. Chapter five tests the third hypothesis and presents how climate change affects military effectiveness in Mali. Subsequently, Chapter six discusses the key policy and governance challenges and draws up policy recommendations. Finally, Chapter seven first summarizes the findings and shows their relevance. Second, Chapter seven presents the limitations of the research and makes suggestions for follow-up research.
Chapter 2
A Theoretical Perspective on
Climate Change, Security
and the Military
Introduction
In order to answer the research question of this thesis - What are the risks and impacts of climate
change for military presence in Mali and what are the key policy and governance challenges at the intersection of climate change and security in the 21st century? – it is necessary to provide an
understanding of what theories, key concepts and ideas exist in relation to this research question. This Chapter will first set forth an overview of the ongoing debate about the definition and interpretation of the term security. Second, the concepts environmental security and climate security will be introduced in relation to state security and human security. Third, three conceptual models present the relationship between climate change, climate security and the military. Finally, this Chapter will end with concluding remarks about the theoretical framework.
2.1 The Changing Definition of Security
The term security is an essentially contested concept (Schäfer 2013). In spite of the lack of a comprehensive and widely accepted definition of security, there is always some form of threat to important values within the definitions. These threats usually endanger a particular referent object’s survival in the near future (Williams 2008: 5). In a general sense security is the condition of being protected from or not exposed to danger.
The term security has always been vague in terms of its definition. According to Malec (2003), after the end of the Cold War, this vagueness increased as new paradigms emerged. Academic discussions of definitions of security significantly expanded to include a broader range of threats to peace, including environmental threats. By the mid 1980s, this field of study was becoming known as environmental security. Interest in environment and security issues truly solidified in the mid 1990s (Dabelko 2004: 3). The findings of Homer-Dixon’s into the links between environmental scarcity and conflict were an important contribution to this solidification (Homer-Dixon 1991; Homer-Dixon 1994). Furthermore, in 1994 the United Nations Development Program adopted the term human security. They started emphasizing on the security of the individual with linkages to the environment and identified environmental security as a core component of human security (Dinar 2011: 57).
Throughout the evolution of the concept of environmental security a lively debate has been taking place in the background. There has been ongoing debate over whether the field of security studies should be narrowed or broadened, or even deepened. This debate has been framed in a more general discussion between so-called traditionalists and non-traditionalists of security studies (Dinar 2011: 56). Various perceptions of security within this debate ranges from Stephen Walt’s very narrow interpretation of a strictly military perspective, to the much broader view taken by, for example, Richard Ullman (Walt 1991; Ullman 1983).
Traditionalists argue in favor of military security as a goal of nation states (Morgenthau 1948: 121). Accordingly, security is the study of the threat, use, and control of military force (Walt 1991: 2). Traditionalists claim that while issues unrelated to war, such as the environment, are important, they should not be regarded as part of the definition of security as they ‘’destroy its intellectual coherence
and make it more difficult to devise solutions to many of these important problems’’ (Idem: 213).
Non-traditionalists claim that the traditional school of security studies seems poorly equipped to deal with the realities of the post-Cold War world. They argue that a narrow military conception of national security excludes other public policy goals. Non-traditionalists expand the definition of security to encompass a variety of threats faced by nations, individuals and the international system (Brauch 2011).
In line with the non-traditionalists claim, Buzan et al. (1998) argued that the field of security studies should be re-conceptualized beyond the limits placed on it by traditional scholars. In line with
the Copenhagen School’s securitization theory, defining something as a threat to state security inevitably produces a need for “exceptional measures and a set of practices legitimated by the logic of
survival” (Waever 1995). Buzan et al. (1998: 74) pointed out that there has been comparatively little
successful securitization moves within the environmental sector that has motivated extraordinary measures. A reason for this could be that the effects of climate change often point to an unspecified, relatively remote future and therefore involve no panic but normal politics. Postponing decisions one more years does not have direct tangible consequences.
Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007; King 2014). Although uncertainty and unpredictability remain, the scientific basis of climate change is now well established. Science suggests that change is happening more quickly than previously estimated and no longer can be framed as a distant threat (Stern 2013; IPCC 2014). Since the IPCC report (2007), the number of publications increased significantly, also indicating a growing interest in the debate on the securitization of climate change. Barnett (2003), Barnett and Adger (2007), and Nordas and Gleditsch (2007) provide a critical examination on the securitization of climate change. It is argued that such a response to climate change is problematic because climate change cannot be mitigated by one state, let alone militarily. Those suspicious of the increased attention by security actors to climate change fear that the securitization discourse, will soon come to dominate the international agenda, thereby pushing other, more collaborative approaches to the periphery (Trombetta 2008). Dabelko (2009) also warns against simplifications and exaggerations by security actors.
2.2 Widening and Deepening of Security: Environmental and Climate
Security
According to Chalecki (2008), the security of individuals, communities, nations, and the entire global community is put at risk by non-military environmental threats. Environmental security reflects the ability of a nation or a society to withstand environmental scarcity, environmental risks or adverse changes, or environment related tensions or conflicts (Ibid).
According to Smil (1997), environmental security has replaced the threat of global nuclear warfare as it shares two characteristics. First, both are global in reach. Second, the effects of both could be highly devastating. However, environmental issues are still not high on the national security agenda (Chalecki 2008). As a reason for this Chalecki (2008) states: ‘’those who study environmental
problems, such as climate change, generally do not see the connection through to its higher-order effects, and those who study security problems such as non-proliferation, terrorism, and civil conflict often do not recognize the environmental roots and effects of these problems.’’
Climate security builds on extended concepts, such as common security, environmental security and human security (Scheffran 2009). The notion of climate security is what provides the linkages between climate change as a physical and environmental process and climate change as a human rights issue (EJF 2014). In security terms, it is necessary to underscore climate change as an aggravating influence that may put further stress on current local frustrations, regional tensions (Schaik et al. 2015: 36). The risks and threats of climate change are quite heterogeneous and influenced by a number of factors, including geographical location, the entity affected, and the social environment (Scheffran 2012: 8). In addition, since everyone is contributing to climate change and everyone is affected by it we would all pose threats to ourselves. However, the asymmetry between those who predominantly cause global warming and those who are largely affected by it, adds to the existing injustice between the rich and the poor (Ibid).
Throughout the evolution of the concept of environmental security more emphasis is being placed on human security in addition to state security.
2.2.1 Climate Change and State Security
For the nation state as the central provider of security, the security threats that climate change poses are regarded primarily as threats to the state and its functions. These functions are its institutional capacity, territorial integrity and national sovereignty. According to Huntjens and Nachbar (2015: 1) there is a distinction between direct and indirect implications caused by climate change on state security.
The most direct and visible effect is rising sea levels that threaten, for example, the existence of Small Island Developing States and coastal cities (Ibid). The most striking indirect security implication of climate change is the notion of climate change as a threat multiplier and driver of violent conflict. A dominant hypothesis is that climate change will lead to new or more intense resource scarcities, which in turn will trigger more intense competition and conflict between and within states sharing resources (Huntjes and Nachbar 2015: 2). Climate change may exacerbate existing or create new socioeconomic stresses such as loss of arable land, resource scarcities, and weakening institutions. According to Homer Dixon (1999) this may in turn make a violent escalation between or within states more likely. Climate change is typically considered to be an indirect but aggravating factor in conflict dynamics. However, its exact contribution to conflict is still subject to academic debate (Gleditch 2012; Bernauer et al. 2012).
2.2.2 Climate Change and Human Security
Climate change poses a threat to current and future human security (King 2014). Human security as a concept aims to capture the broad range of factors that determine people’s livelihoods and their ability to exercise their human rights and fulfill their potential. In an attempt to induce more rigorous scientific research on this issue, the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report has for the first time devoted an entire section to the linkages between climate change and human security (IPCC 2014).
Research shows, that failures in human security almost never has a single cause. Instead they emerge from the interaction of multiple factors. The diverse ways of interaction between a warming climate and the socioeconomic variables on which human livelihoods depend render predictions on the impact of climate change on human security highly complex. Climate change poses a threat by undermining livelihoods, compromising culture and identity, increasing mass migrations and challenging the ability of states to provide the conditions necessary for a stable society (King 2014). Furthermore, climate change is understood as a threat to human security in that it disrupts the capacity of both individuals and communities to adapt to changing conditions (Brauch and Scheffran 2012). Brauch (2004) introduced the survival dilemma as a new concept where environmental security challenges expose the societal vulnerability for those with a high degree of societal vulnerability that may be the most seriously affected during the realization of environmental hazards. The survival dilemma implies for the most vulnerable and poor either to stay and die, or to migrate as internally displaced persons and thus often to become victims of clashes with resident populations (Ibid).
2.3 Seeking conceptual clarity over the connections between climate
change, climate security and the military
Interactions between the political environment, socio-economic factors, and climate change lack in-depth research and empirical evidence. Moreover, the causal chains from climate change to climate insecurity are complex and shaped by many interactions that are not yet fully understood. Also, the connection between climate change and its impacts on the military remains underexposed. The role of
military institutions in public policy debates surrounding climate change continues to remain an emerging area of research and understanding. This lack of understanding has exposed knowledge gaps including how climate change might affect the military and security.
Contributing to the complexity is the lack of comprehensive and widely accepted definitions, but also phrasing used by non-academic parties, including governmental and non-governmental institutions. The existing academic and non-academic literature on climate change, climate insecurity and the military highlights the need to search for more conceptual clarity.
Researchers use conceptual models to simplify complexity and seek causality between variables. Conceptual clarity is essential in order to unravel complex situations. The following three conceptual models are essential in order to explore in greater detail the connections between climate change, climate insecurity and the military. These models help to discover the network of interactions and causality.
Figure 1. Climate Change as Threat Multiplier. Source: Compiled by the author
As presented in figure 1, climate change acts as a threat multiplier, which leads to climate insecurity. When climate change acts as a threat multiplier it exacerbates existing socioeconomic stress factors in societies with high exposure, high levels of poverty, and little institutional capacity to mitigate or adapt to climate change (Scheffran 2011; CNA 2007). Security is always related to individual or societal value systems (Brauch 2003: 52).Moreover, in a multi-actor environment, a perceived loss of security for one actor may provoke reactions leading to a loss of security for other actors whose responses may result in insecurity for all (Scheffran 2011: 747).
In this model, it has to be noted that the security threat does not come from climate change itself, but rather, from how it interacts with existing security conditions.
Figure 2. The Connection Between Climate Change and Climate Insecurity. Source: Compiled by the
author
According to the model in figure 2, in order to seek causality between climate change and climate insecurity, there needs to be a filter in between. Figure 2 presents scarcity as a filter between climate change and climate insecurity. One dominant assumption is that climate change will lead to new or more intense resource scarcities, which, in turn, will trigger more intense competition and conflict between local communities sharing common resources (Huntjens and Nachbar 2015). Climate change leads to scarcity. For example, it can lead to scarcity of land, water, resources, but also to scarcity of a
safe environment, access to markets and schools.
In addition, governments of weak or fragile states are not able to handle the effects of climate change, leaving citizens vulnerable to a range of shocks. These governments do not have sufficient reserves to cope with the stresses and shocks of climate change (Houben 2017: 92). In turn, scarcity in combination with a weak or fragile state leads to climate insecurity.
In order to address climate insecurity, it is important to define whose security is being threatened. In this model, it is about human security not national security. Climate security is largely about human security. It is about the security and insecurity of people. The primary purpose of military forces is to maintain peace and national security. Military forces are not optimized to address human security. Moreover, it has to be noted that the military is an instrument of consequences and is therefore not equipped to take action on the causes and effects of climate change.
At the same time, because the military primarily acts as an instrument of consequence, it is indirectly threated by climate change through the exacerbation of instability in critical fragile regions and operating environments. The effects of climate change could limit or complicate the ability of militaries to respond internationally to increasing demands, whether they are interventions in conflicts, or humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions (Werrell and Femia 2017: 44).
Figure 3. The Connection between Climate Change and Military Effectiveness. Source: Compiled by
the author.
Military leaders are increasingly expressing concern about the significant risk climate change poses to security. Next to indirect threats (figure 2), climate change can also pose direct threats to the military (figure 3). These direct threats are on military facilities, infrastructure, training and testing activities, and military capabilities. In this model, it has to be noted that the security threat comes from climate change itself, directly affecting military effectiveness. Together direct and indirect effects of climate change on the military present risks to three elements of military effectiveness: readiness, operations and strategy (CCS 2015).
Readiness: Readiness refers to the ability of a military to carry out operations in a timely manner (CCS 2015). This involves having a stable and secure military infrastructure, including bases, supplies and logistics, in order to carry out missions (Ibid). Climate change effects such as extreme weather events (e.g. droughts and flooding) can also put stresses on critical military infrastructure (DoD 2014).
Operations: Extreme drought or flooding in operating areas, for example, can compromise water supply lines, and thus threaten military personnel directly (CCS 2015). An increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters may also put strains on the capacity of armed forces to deliver humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Moreover, an increase in extreme weather can make the most demanding of tasks even more challenging (CNA 2007: 42).
destabilizing conditions in strategically significant regions of the world. These risks can increase the likelihood of militaries being called on to resolve conflicts, or provide post-conflict assistance (CCS 2015: 4). All of these dynamics will put stresses and strains on military strategies. According to Briggs (2010: 6), it is likely that climate change will lead to an increased need for responses to instability and a broader variation in types of military deployments.
Conclusion
This Chapter has elaborated on the concept of security and its evolution with the aim to provide an understanding of the relation between climate change and security, and about the different positions, complexity of interactions and knowledge gaps related to the topic of research. Table 1 (appendix 1), shows a compilation of the key concepts such as environmental threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks. This table also shows the risks climate change poses for human security. These concepts will be used in the Chapters four and five to investigate the impact of climate change on security in Mali. It has been argued that a more profound understanding about the relationship between climate change, climate insecurity and the military is needed. Through a case study this thesis aims to fill existing knowledge gaps and to provide empirical evidence for unraveling some of the complex linkages between climate change and security. The conceptual models that have been described in paragraph 2.3 will be tested in the following Chapters. The next Chapter will first elaborate more precise on the research design and methodology of the study.
Chapter 3
Research Design and Methodology
Introduction
This third chapter will present how data was collected and how it was analyzed throughout this thesis. Based on the theoretic assumptions presented in the previous Chapter, three testable hypotheses were formulated. These hypotheses were formulated in order to help answer each of the research question and sub-questions. These questions are presented in the first paragraph of this Chapter. The hypotheses are about causal mechanisms and will be presented in the second paragraph of this Chapter.
The methodology used in this study is of a qualitative nature. The methodological approach for writing this thesis was executed in line with the standards of inductive qualitative research. Whereas a deductive approach would proceed from a broader generalization and then theory-building, the advantage of an inductive qualitative approach is that it is able to incorporate a larger array of empirical observations and to offer a more detailed description of the complex causal mechanisms underlying them.
One specific contribution of qualitative research is its potential to analyze causal mechanisms. In a qualitative approach, a case study refers to the in depth analysis of a single or small number of units. The units of analysis are presented in the third paragraph of this chapter.
For this thesis a case study was conducted to obtain a rich understanding of case specific developments and to identify causal mechanisms. The case selected in this thesis is a single case study on military presence in Mali. For the case study in this thesis, relevant documents were analyzed and semi-structured interviews were conducted with various experts. The fourth paragraph will present the case that is being studied in this thesis, followed by the fifth paragraph, which will explain the data collecting and data analysis process. This is followed by the sixth paragraph, which will discuss the validity and reliability of this research. Finally, this Chapter will be concluded with some concluding remarks about the use of the methodological approach throughout the thesis.
3.1 Research Question
The main research question is:
What are the risks and impacts of climate change for military presence in Mali, and what are the key policy and governance challenges at the intersection of climate change and security in
the 21st century?
This question is disaggregated into the following, interrelated sub-questions: 1. How does climate change affect security in Mali?
This sub-question will investigated in Chapter 4.
2. How does climate change affect the readiness, operations and strategy of MINUSMA?
This sub-question will be investigated in Chapter 5.
3. What are the key policy and governance challenges for governments at the intersection of climate change and security?
This sub-question will be investigated in Chapter 6. Builds upon conclusions and challenges identified while testing hypotheses 1, 2 and 3.
4. How can current policies and governance arrangements be improved to better meet these challenges and what is the role of the military in this?
This sub-question will be investigated in Chapter 6.
3.2 Hypotheses
A hypothesis is a statement or explanation that is suggested by knowledge or observation but has not, yet, been proved or disproved (Prasad et al. 2001). The hypotheses are tested through a case study in
this thesis and are derived from what has been graphically presented in the conceptual models in Chapter 2 (figure 1, 2 and 3). The next step is to test if these expectations are correct or incorrect. Each hypothesis will be discussed in a separate chapter of this thesis.
As presented in the conceptual model in figure 1, climate change acts as a threat multiplier, which leads to climate insecurity.
H1: Climate Change is a Threat Multiplier and leads to Climate Insecurity in Mali
This hypothesis will be tested in Chapter 4.
As presented in the conceptual model in figure 2, climate change causes scarcity and as a consequence this leads to climate insecurity. Because the military primarily acts as an instrument of consequence, it is indirectly threatened by climate change through the exacerbation of instability in critical fragile regions and operating environments.
H2: Climate Change is an indirect threat to Military Effectiveness in Mali
This hypothesis will be tested in Chapter 4.
As presented in the conceptual model in figure 3, climate change can pose direct threats to the military. It is argued that climate change presents risks to three elements of military effectiveness: readiness, operations and strategy. It should be noted that this study does not investigate the impacts of the military on climate change.
H3: Climate Change is a direct threat to Military Effectiveness in Mali
This hypothesis will be tested in Chapter 5.
3.3 Unit of Analysis
The term unit of analysis can be simply defined as the entity that is being analyzed in a research and is the most basic element. Understanding the unit of analysis is important because it shapes what type of data should be collected for the study and whom it should be collected from.
The literature of international relations provides a good example of units of analysis. Waltz (1959), created an analysis with three different units of analysis: the man (individual), the state (a group), and the international system (the system in which groups interact). In social science, other typical units of analysis include organizations and countries.
The research for this thesis is directed at understanding the influence of climate change on security and on military presence in Mali. The main units of analysis in this thesis are country, organization and state. First, the goal of this research is to understand how climate change affects security in Mali, therefore the unit of analysis is country. A country is defined as a region that is identified as a distinct national entity in political geography. Second, the goal of this research is to understand how climate change affects military presence in Mali and the related operation MINUSMA, therefore the unit of analysis is organization. An organization is defined as an organized group of people with a particular purpose. Third, the goal of this research is to understand the key policy and governance challenges for governments at the intersection of climate change and security, therefore the unit of analysis is state. The most commonly used definition is Max Weber's, which describes the state as a political organization with a centralized government that maintains a monopoly of the legitimate use of force within a certain territory. In this context, governments are the means through which state power is employed.
3.4 Case selection
Case selection is crucial. A case study was conducted to obtain rich understanding of case specific developments and to identify causal mechanisms. A case study is an intensive study of a single unit for the purpose of understanding a larger class of similar units (Gerring 2004: 341). Within this definition a unit is a spatially bounded phenomenon. Case studies have the advantage that they allow for a detailed study in which a multitude of factors can be included.
The research design that is used in this thesis is a single case study of Mali. The most prominent reason for choosing Mali as a topic of study above others is due to the uniqueness of the physical geographical features of the region and the many complex and interconnected challenges that threaten it.
Mali is part of the Sahel region. According to the IPCC (2007; IPCC 2014), the Sahel has been described as one of the regions with the most impactful climate changes. Moreover, Mali has requested help from the international community in restoring stability in the country and protecting the civilian population. The objective of the United Nations efforts is to ensure that Mali will be able to guarantee its own security independently (United Nations n.d.). The UN’s instrument for this is MINUSMA.
Figure 4. Map of Mali and operating area MINUSMA. Source: Ministry of Defense:
https://www.defensie.nl/onderwerpen/missie-in-mali
3.4.1 Mali Country Overview
Mali is a large, land-locked country in the Sahelian zone with a climate that exhibits large inter-annual variability, particularly with regards rainfall. The Sahel is one of the most difficult places on earth to live. The Sahelian zone is an extremely hot, savanna zone (United Nations n.d.)
Mali is the world's 24th largest country. The population of Mali is 17,6 million (World Bank
n.d.). The northern part of Mali, with borders deep in the Sahara desert, has dealt with severe drought, food and water scarcity in recent years. More than 90 percent of the population lives in the southern part of the country, especially in Bamako, which has over 1 million residents (Central Intelligence n.d.). Mali's population encompasses a number of sub-Saharan ethnic groups. The Bambara are the largest single ethnic group, making up 36.5 percent of the population. Other ethnic groups in Mali are Fulani (Peul) 14.7%, Sarakole 10.8%, Senufo 10.5%, Dogon 8.9%, Malinke 8.7%, Bobo 2.9%, Songhai 1.6%, Tuareg 0.9%, other Malian 6.1%, from member of Economic Community of West African States 0.3%, other 0.4% (Ibid).
Mali was once considered a successful democracy but in early 2012 it suddenly collapsed after a separatist rebellion by the Tuaregs (Muiderman 2016). A civil war started, for the most part in the northern part of the country. Regionally based extremist Islamist groups took advantage of the unrest
in the north and a weakened Malian army overthrew the weakened and corrupt Malian government (Ibid). When the armed Islamic groups advanced on the capital of Bamako, a French military intervention returned a fragile control, allowing the establishment of an interim government and the international peacekeeping force (Ibid). The government is still relying on these international intervention forces such as the UN’s MINUSMA (Ibid).
3.4.2 MINUSMA
The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali was established by Security Council resolution 2100 of 25 April 2013 ‘’to support political processes in that country and
carry out a number of security-related tasks.’’ The mission was asked to support the transitional
authorities of Mali in the stabilization of the country and implementation of the transitional roadmap (United Nations n.d.).
By adopting resolution 2164 of 25 June 2014, the Security Council further decided that ‘’the mission
should focus on duties, such as ensuring security, stabilization and protection of civilians; supporting national political dialogue and reconciliation; and assisting the reestablishment of State authority, the rebuilding of the security sector, and the promotion and protection of human rights in that country’’
(Ibid).
In order to achieve its goals, MINUSMA has been working together with the Malian government and its security and defense forces, the French forces, the European Union Training Mission, UN agencies, the humanitarian community in Mali, and a range of other local and regional organizations (Vermeij 2015).
MINUSMA is currently facing several challenges that prevent the mission from achieving its full potential and implementing its mandate. Many of these challenges are related to the aggravating security situation in Mali, the lack of a peace agreement, disapproval and mistrust on the part of the Malian population, complex working relationships with the Malian authorities and security forces, internal problems within MINUSMA, a lack of capacity due to insufficient numbers of personnel as well as technical and logistical support, and the unreliable infrastructure in the country (Vermeij 2015).
Countries contributing troops to MINUSMA: Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cambodia,
Cameroon, Canada, Chad, China, Denmark, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Italy, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Liberia, Mauritania, Nepal, The Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Norway, Portugal, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sweden, Switzerland, Togo, United Kingdom, United States of America, Yemen (MINUSMA n.d.). Figure 5 shows the division in personnel within MINUSMA.
Figure 5. MINUSMA Facts.
Source: http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/ resources/statistics/factsheet.shtml
3.5 Data Collection
Case study as a method uses many methods to gather information, from observation to interview to testing. For the case study in this thesis, relevant documents were analyzed and semi-structured interviews were conducted with various experts. It is important to note that the information of the different data sources complement each other throughout the thesis.
3.5.1 Primary and Secondary sources
The study of primary and secondary sources was the primary method used to collect relevant sources in this thesis. Conducting literature research provides insight into existing knowledge and theories related to the topic of this thesis. It also ensured that this thesis has a strong scientific grounding. Moreover, secondary data with knowledge and research that already available on the topic could offer support to some of the findings of this study.
In order to investigate the first research question and hypothesis, about how climate change affects security in Mali, this study focused on specific data on trends and vulnerabilities. This data came from various databases such as the World Bank and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and can be found in Appendix II.
3.5.2 Interviews
Next to the use of primary and secondary sources, 10 interviews were conducted to gain qualitative information. The types of interviews that were carried out had explorative and investigative motives. The explorative interviews gave a broad overview of the case, its stakeholders involved, but also an overview of the themes and sub-themes related to the research question. The investigative interviews mainly focused on the perceived risks and impacts, but also on the policy and governance challenges at the intersection of climate change and security experienced by the interviewees. The first few interviews had an explorative objective. Furthermore, by means of the snowball effect (obtaining new respondents via the surveyed respondents) relevant individuals were added to the list of interviews (Biernacki and Waldorf 1981). The complete list of all respondents can be found in Appendix III. When citing the interviewees, a number behind the name indicates the respondents’ number of that list.
In terms of interviews, semi-structured interviews were conducted. In semi-structured interviews the predetermined questions were structured in such a manner that the respondents had the ability to speak in their own words and include other relevant information. A list of the questions asked in the interviews can be found in Appendix III.
Semi-structured interviews gave the ability to ask process-focused questions in a more structured way and allow for more flexibility to adjust the order in which the questions are asked and to add questions depending on how the conversation goes. In addition to semi-structured interviews, a standardized style of interviewing was be used. This style of interviewing was used in order to gain more information about the severity of the identified risks factors and impacts perceived by the interviewees. Examples of this were: on a scale from 1-5 where do you put this risk/impact (1 being not posing a significant security risk/impact and 5 being a critical security risk/impact).
3.5.3 Data Analysis
All primary and secondary sources were analyzed manually. In addition, all discussions and interviews were recorded using an iPhone voice recorder. These interviews were conducted in Dutch. After recording the interviews they were transcribed manually and translated into English. Thereafter, these transcriptions were categorized by relevance and theme. Moreover, primary and secondary sources
were combined with the information obtained from the interviews. In the research results, all interviewees remain unanimous. Voice recordings and transcriptions could be made available on condition that the interviewee gives his/her permission.
3.6 Validity and Reliability
The terms validity and reliability are problematic terms when it comes to their ability to judge the quality of qualitative research. Despite the advantages of the case study method, its reliability and validity remain in doubt (Reige 2003: 75). There are several techniques, which can enhance the validity and reliability in case study research. This thesis strives to follow these techniques. In order to construct validity a study should: use multiple sources of evidence; establish chain of evidence; have key informants review draft case study report. In order to achieve external validity a study should: use theory in single-case studies. In order to achieve reliability: demonstrating that the operations of a study can be repeated with the same results (Yin 2013).
Davies and Dodd (2002) claim that notions of reliability and validity in qualitative studies can be replaced by an overarching idea of scientific rigor that encompasses the general conceptions of terms as objectivity, reliability and validity in qualitative research (Davies and Dodd 2002: 280). This thesis strives ‘’to organize reliability based on consistency and care in the application of research
practices, and a reliability in the analysis and conclusions, reflected in an open account that remains mindful of the partiality and limits of the research findings’’ (Davies and Dodd 2002: 290).
Conclusion
This Chapter has presented the research design method to fulfill the overall aims of the study. Moreover, it has clearly articulated the reasons why particular steps have been taken in order to find an answer to the main research question and sub-questions. The next Chapters will present the outcomes of research questions and the hypotheses that were drafted conceptually.
Chapter 4
In the Frontlines of
Climate Change
Introduction
In this Chapter the first hypothesis and second hypothesis are tested. To be more precise, hypothesis 1:
Climate Change is a Threat Multiplier and leads to Climate Insecurity in Mali, and hypothesis 2: Climate Change is an indirect threat to Military Effectiveness in Mali. In general, this Chapter aims to
identify the causal mechanism between climate change and security in Mali.
The first paragraph presents the trends and vulnerabilities of Mali documented by several databases. All data and figures used for this analysis can be found in Appendix II. The second paragraph of this Chapter aims to expose the causal mechanisms between climate change and security. The second paragraph demonstrates how climate change and a range of existing problems in Mali interact. Finally, the third section of this Chapter focuses on the implications of the identified relationship between climate change and insecurity means for MINUSMA and its armed forces in Mali.
4.1 Climate Change in Mali: Trends and Vulnerabilities
“I wasn’t convinced by a person or any interest group—it was the data that got me.”
Richard H. Truly, Former NASA Administrator (CNA 2007: 14)
4.1.1 Trends
Temperatures and Precipitation:
temperatures across the Sahel have increased almost 1 degree Celsius since 1970 (figure 6). Temperature has increased at a rate nearly twice the global average. Moreover, Mali has experienced higher temperatures and less rainfall during shorter rainy seasons, resulting in poor harvests and drought (Adano and Daudi 2012). These trends in temperatures and precipitation are a direct consequence of climate change.It should be noted that a lack of data makes it difficult to draw conclusions about trends in rainfall over the past century (Crawford 2015). Moreover, precipitation is one of the most complex variables to grasp when reviewing the impacts of climate change in the Sahel. The climate in Mali has large regional differences (Drakenberg 2008). Overall the region is receiving less rainfall in total however some parts are receiving a big increase (interviewee 4, May 11 2017). Projections on future rainfall are less certain than those on temperature rise (Boko et al. 2007). Table 1 shows how and for whom this long-term temperature increase and absence of rain poses threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks (appendix I).
Extreme Weather Events:
climate variability is not new in Africa’s history (interviewee 2, May 9 2017. However, the severity of floods and droughts has increased in recent years (Adano and Daudi 2012). Extreme weather events are no longer isolated. In recent years, drought has become increasingly common (Crawford 2015). The Sahel region has experienced three major drought periods during the last century: 1910-1916, 1941-1945 and a longer period starting in the 1970s. This period can be considered to be still ongoing despite some interruptions due to one-off seasons with adequate rainfall (Ibid). These trends in drought are an indirect consequence of climate change.The resultant threat to health and livelihoods is set to become worse with desertification likely to increase by 5–8% by the 2080s. Moreover, drought and desertification, lead in turn to resource scarcity (interviewee 2, May 9 2017; OECD 2012: 89). Table 1 shows how and for whom these extreme weather events pose threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks (appendix I).
