• No results found

Lithium mining in Bolivia: an interdisciplinary research into mining practices at the Salar de Uyuni

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Lithium mining in Bolivia: an interdisciplinary research into mining practices at the Salar de Uyuni"

Copied!
25
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

Lithium mining in Bolivia

An interdisciplinary research of mining practices on the Salar de

Uyuni

Interdisciplinary project, Future Planet Studies

Joost Bakker, Minne Perdijk, Robin Oostenbrug & Charlie van Rooij Supervisor: Anne Uilhoorn

Expert: Rutger Bults Date: 18 dec. 2020 Words: 8278

(2)

Abstract

The increasing demand for lithium driven by growth in the renewable energy and transport sectors poses both challenges and opportunities for Bolivia. The future of the country is

dependent on how they will respond to changes in the lithium market, and how they will manage further development. Many factors have to be taken into account when discussing the future of lithium mining in Bolivia. Not only will it affect the (indigenous) people living there, it will furthermore have implications for the environment, Bolivia’s economy, and their place in the world market. Because lithium is crucial to building a sustainable future, exploring these issues is essential. In our research, we use diverse methods to try to find out what consequences current developments will most likely have in the future. These methods consist of a DPSIR framework combined with scenario-planning. Our research is interdisciplinary, combining Earth Sciences, Economics and Politics.

(3)

Table of Contents

Introduction ... 4

Methods and Data ... 6

Theoretical Framework ... 9

Drivers for Lithium extraction in Bolivia ... 9

Mining as pressure on the Salar de Uyuni ecosystem ... 10

Current State of the Salar de Uyuni and its inhabitants ... 11

Impact of mining on the wellbeing of the population ... 13

Scenario planning and responses ... 14

Scenario’s………. 14

Conclusion, discussion and recommendations ... 17

References ... 18

Appendix ... 21

Data Management Table ... 21

(4)

Introduction

Lithium has been gaining importance in the world economy because of its significance for renewable energy storage devices (Dorn & Peyré, 2020). It plays a key role in sustainability transitions because it is a critical component of batteries for electric vehicles(Sanchez-Lopez, 2019). This means that large quantities of lithium will be needed and demand for lithium will rise, possibly exceeding the supply. Demand is expected to more than double in the next four years, mostly driven by the growth of electric vehicle battery production (Fawthrop, 2020). Even the recycling of lithium will not stop this growing demand for new lithium, as indicated in Figure 1 below. Therefore, to meet this growing demand more lithium will have to be mined.

Figure 1: Global Lithium Demand

Note. This figure demonstrates how global lithium demand will rise even when 100% of lithium will be recycled. Reprinted from Conservation Letters, 4(3), p. 204, by T.C. Wanger, 2011. Copyright 2011 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bolivia plays an important role in the discussion about lithium availability. Estimates about the country’s lithium supply have suggested that the Uyuni salt flat in Bolivia possesses the largest world resource, holding 10.2 million tonnes of lithium (Sanchez-Lopez, 2019). Nevertheless, Bolivia has not yet started the extraction of lithium on an industrial scale. This is due to the many complexities the lithium discussion has encountered on a political, environmental and economic level.

The Uyuni is wetter and at a higher altitude than usual lithium mining sites, making evaporation very inefficient. The lithium in Bolivia is also harder to extract because it contains many impurities (Eisler, 2019). To overcome these complications new technologies and infrastructures were needed, but the project for extraction of lithium was delayed because the country lacked the money to invest in its project (Hopper, 2009). The project was further delayed because of social dynamics emerging around the resource (Revette, 2015).

Then, in November 2019 president Morales was asked to resign in what has been referred to by some as a military coup (Hetland, 2019). Claims have been made that this so-called coup was supported by the United States to gain some control over their lithium resources, for in January

(5)

showed that the geological reserves of lithium reached 21 million metric tons, instead of the estimate made in 2017 of 9 million metric tons (Aponte-García, 2020). After the coup, the United States was the first country to recognize the new government (Kapoor, 2020), and stock values of electric car manufacturer Tesla rose astronomically (Conese, 2019). The new administration, led by Luis Arce, is planning to move the lithium strategy towards a more neoliberal approach (Stone, 2020).

Not only is lithium extraction in Bolivia linked to many economic and political challenges, but its potential socio-environmental impacts are also a cause for concerns. The extraction of lithium could endanger the local ecosystems and their services. Many of these services, like provisioning services, are not only vital to the wellbeing of flora and fauna, but also to the wellbeing of humans (Aguilar-Fernandez, 2009).

The Uyuni salt flat has a sensitive wetland ecosystem and is thus heavily dependent on water resources (Aguilar-Fernandez, 2009). The very water intensive mining process therefore might harm the water availability to the ecosystem and the surrounding communities, depending on it for drinking water and agriculture. Much agriculture and animal husbandry takes place in the Uyuni salt flat, and the livelihoods of many people are thus dependent on it. Quinoa farming and llama husbandry are the main agricultural activities, and quinoa is in addition a source of regional and national pride (Abelvik-Lawson, 2019).

Tourism also provides many local people with an income, and before the COVID-19 pandemic it was the most important income-generating activity (Lopez, 2019). If large scale mining is to be conducted in the Uyuni salt flat it can possibly have a negative impact on the amount of tourism in the area. The development of lithium therefore has the potential to damage the two key industries in the region: agriculture and tourism (Bagley & Nazario, 2010).

The biggest environmental concern is that chemical substances used for the evaporation process may leak into the environment, leading to water pollution which can affect aquatic diversity and therefore biodiversity in the entire region. The various flamingo species living in the area could for instance suffer from a change in quality or quantity of the water (Wanger, 2011). Water resources are critical for sustainable development and if the protection hereof does not have the highest priority it will endanger agricultural, tourist, and economic (mining) developments (Messerli et al., 1997).

All in all, the rising demand for lithium poses several challenges for Bolivia. In this research, we aim to answer the following question : In which way does the rising demand for lithium for renewable technologies cause lithium extraction in the Uyuni salt flat in Bolivia, and how does it affect the working and living conditions of the people living near the salt flat?

We will examine the causes for the rising demand for lithium and the policies leading to the extraction system in Bolivia in the following subquestion: What economic and political processes lead to the increased demand for lithium and its mining in Bolivia? Following from this

extraction are some consequences for the natural environment that we will research in the subquestion: What effects does lithium mining have on the ecosystem of the Uyuni salt flat? These effects on the ecosystem affect the local population in multiple ways that we will examine in the question: How does lithium mining affect the living and working conditions of people in mining areas in Bolivia?

(6)

Methods and Data

Lithium mining in Bolivia is a complex situation. This is the case because it consists of multiple systems, one of which is the political system in the country. The Bolivian political system is characterized by instability at the moment, to which it might adapt in new elections. This political system is intertwined with an ecosystem and economic system. This

interconnectivity provides feedback loops. As a result of this complexity, the problem can not be understood from one discipline alone. Since each discipline has its own assumptions, attention is paid towards our observer's dependence.

An interdisciplinary framework is needed to investigate the research question and to gain insight into the cause-effect linkages of lithium extraction at the Salar de Uyuni with its political, economic, and societal dimensions. A causal chain cascades throughout the process of

outsourcing of lithium production to Bolivia until the far-reaching consequences for the indigenous quinoa farmers living near the salt flat. This process will be explained by the integration of three fields of knowledge, respectively Earth Sciences, Economics, and Political Sciences. We connect these three fields by making use of the DPSIR framework as a tool to guide us. The DPSIR framework stands for Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response and is mostly associated with the European Environmental Agency (EEA). It helps meeting both the need for clear causal-effects linkages as for the integration of several disciplines. As such, it provides understanding and a visual overview of a problem (Ness, Anderberg, and Olson: 2009). To ensure interdisciplinary integration in our research we have chosen to incorporate it throughout our paper instead of in the visual manner represented below. The components of the DPSIR framework are woven through our theoretical framework and results to guarantee the integration of our three disciplinary backgrounds in our work.

There are five components in the DPSIR framework, see Figure 2: 1) Drivers, a driving force is articulated as a need and external cause. So, demands for lithium are rising due to the need for green transportation, e.a. electric vehicles. The Drivers of lithium extraction in general are discussed in the introduction. The drivers for lithium extraction in Bolivia specifically are discussed in the chapter: Drivers for lithium extraction in Bolivia. 2) Pressures are understood as human activities resulting from meeting the need. In this research, the pressure is the lithium exploitation on the Salar de Uyuni as discussed in the chapter: Pressures on the Salar de Uyuni ecosystem. 3) State: as a consequence of pressure, the physical, chemical, and biological state of the environment is affected as discussed in the Chapter: Current situation of the Salar the Uyuni and its inhabitants. 4) Changes in the state subsequently affect ecosystem services. Environmental and economic impacts are listed. Human health may also be affected. This is listed in the Chapter: Impact of mining on the wellbeing of the population. 5) Responses are formulated by

policymakers and either affect drivers, pressure, state or impact, or a combination of the four (Kristensen, 2004). How the responses are incorporated in this paper we will discuss in the following section.

(7)

Figure 2: The five components of the DPSIR framework

Note. This figure shows the components of the DPSIR framework and how they interact.d. Derived from The DPSIR Framework, by P. Kristensen, 2004.

To get an idea of what the future of the Uyuni salt flats will be like different scenarios will be made. Scenarios do not necessarily predict a certain future, but they will yield a landscape of possible futures (Bankes et al. 2001). According to Tromp (2018) scenario development has to start with a thorough problem analysis, in this case, that will consist of the Theoretical chapters using the DPSIR framework. The scenario planning and possible responses that we determine per scenario are part of the Responses part of the DPSIR framework. Trends need to be investigated to establish the possible directions of the scenarios. For this research, these trends will be based on the existing literature on the topic. To make meaningful and useful scenarios the scenarios should be based on the most influential and uncertain trends (Tromp, 2018). These trends will become the X and Y axes on which 4 scenarios will be plotted. These scenarios will include insights into the expected demography, political situation, economic situation, and ecological situation. Therefore it is also important that this research will be interdisciplinary. See Figure 5 for an example.

(8)

Figure 5: Example of scenario planning Note. This figure shows how a future scenario is plotted on 2 axes of trends.

.

Some of these scenarios might be more or less plausible based on existing scientific knowledge. However, there may also be scenarios that seem to be a best-case scenario. These scenarios are not only useful as a possible future. But they can also be used to find out how such a scenario might come to be and what can be done to make a certain scenario our future. According to Tromp (2018) backcasting, reasoning backward can be used to find the necessary subsequent actions and interventions can be designed to try to realize a certain future. “Scenarios can help to expand our horizon and enable us to think in more imaginative ways about our future which in turn may cause us to act differently.” - Harari (2017).

The Millenium assessment of human well-being will be used to gain insight into the human consequences of lithium mining. Based on our theoretical framework it is to be expected that a large role in the human well-being of the local inhabitants is played by the negative effects mining has on food security and ecosystem services in addition to their economic situation. We expect that possible positive economic effects of increased labor opportunities and improved

infrastructure are not enough to compensate for these negative effects.

The axes on which the scenarios will be plotted will probably be something related to the amount of lithium that will be mined and the people and/or companies that will mine the lithium because those factors are quite uncertain and will have the biggest implications on the future of the Uyuni salt flat.

(9)

Theoretical Framework

We will now proceed to discuss our theoretical concepts. As visualized in Figure 3, Lithium extraction encapsulates economic, environmental and social dimensions. Politics as discipline is not shown, since the interplay of these processes is inherently political and we view the political system as the way of dealing with economic, social and environmental questions. At the

intersection between economic, environmental and social dimensions we find the concept of Vivir Bien, which we discuss first in the following chapter on drivers for lithium extraction. At the intersection between the social and economic dimension, progressive welfare politics are pursued and poverty is alleviated. a form of welfare politics is part of the Vivir Bien policy. At the interplay between the social and natural dimension, the concept of sustainable livelihoods will be highlighted. These sustainable livelihoods related to Quinoa farming and tourism are discussed in the chapter: Impact of mining on the wellbeing of the population . Ecosystem services are a concept on the interception of the economic and environmental dimension. For example, the effect of lithium-exploitation on soil properties are discussed further in the chapter: Mining as pressure on the Salar de Uyuni ecosystem.

Figure 3: Vivir Bien encapsulates economic, environmental and social dimensions.

Drivers for Lithium extraction in Bolivia

As discussed in the introduction, the rising demand for Lithium on the world market might be causing the exploitation of new lithium mines like the one on the salar the Uyuni. These macro level economic trends are not the only thing influencing the opening of mines however. In this paragraph the theoretical concepts will be discussed that we identified to be causes for lithium extraction in Bolivia and the way in which it takes shape: Vivir Bien, Ricardian strategy and the

(10)

rentier state hypothesis. A Ricardian strategy is adopted when a country has a comparative advantage in the production of a good (Bombardini et al., 2012). First, the concept of Vivir Bien is discussed. This political concept brings together economic, environmental and indigenous life as seen in figure 3.The administration under president Evo Morales (2006-2019) pursued the Ricardian strategy causing the national exploitation of lithium mines under the state doctrine of Vivir Bien. This Kichwa indian indigenous concept of living in harmony with nature and other human beings became a state doctrine under the administration. Economic and social life and the relation with nature are organized around this concept. Beside a state doctrine, Vivir Bien is also employed as a justification method for natural resource exploitation. The revenues from state-led natural resource exploitation are converted into progressive social welfare programs (Lalander and Lemke, 2014). This is also known as resource nationalism. The revenues of natural resource exploitation are kept within the country. This is used as an argument for state-owned mines. However, state control of minerals does not guarantee positive development. This is described by the rentier state hypothesis, which states that natural resource exploitation generates short-term increases in public revenues and this tends to hinder the long-term fiscal sustainability of

resource-rich countries and benefits particular individuals instead of the entire population (Badia-Miró et al., 2015).

Attempts made by the Morales administration, proponents of resource nationalism, to realize Bolivian’s lithium dream have failed. Morales faced a public opposition and a lack of expertise, eventually leading to his exile (Vella, 2020). His successor, Luis Arce, plans to continue the planned lithium extraction and wants to turn Bolivia into the “lithium capital of the world” (Stone, 2020). In order to achieve this goal it is expected that Arce will take a more neoliberal approach, stepping away from resource nationalism and risking realization of the rentier state hypothesis.

Mining as pressure on the Salar de Uyuni ecosystem

The aforementioned economic and political drivers are cause for the government to pursue mining on the Salar the Uyuni salt flat. The intensive mining process however, might change the delicate balance of the ecosystem on the salt flat. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

distinguishes four ecosystem services: supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services (Board, 2005). It is very important that its supporting and regulating services, which maintain the balance of the ecosystem, will not be negatively affected by mining. In this chapter we will discuss the effect of mining on some regulating and supporting ecosystem services, and the next chapter will discuss the provisioning and cultural services.

Supporting ecosystem services include biodiversity, nutrient cycles and soil formations and are the basis of the other three ecosystem services. Firstly, looking at biodiversity, the flat is a unique environment. The Uyuni salt flat has a rich avifauna and vegetation cover. Because the plant species are very sensitive to water availability, even a small chance in water availability can greatly affect plant diversity and vegetation cover (Agusdinata et al., 2018). The Rio Grande de Lipez river floods the Salar during the rainy season, but most of the playa dries out completely in the summer (Garrett, 2004). The region also has a low precipitation rate, as the average rainfall varies from 100-200 mm/yr. The current evaporation rate, however, greatly exceeds the precipitation rate with an average of 1300-1700 mm/yr (Aguilar-Fernandez, 2009). Because groundwater resources were formed when precipitation rates were greater than they are today water is now a resource that is renewed very slowly, or is even non-renewable (Messerli et al.,

(11)

1997). Due to the evaporation rate already being very high, and water renewing slowly or not at all, the environmental impacts of evaporative lithium extraction must be extensively evaluated (Wanger, 2011), for the threat it may pose to water availability.

In addition to the quantity of the water, mining might also influence the regulating ecosystem service of water purification. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) linen ponds, used to evaporate the lithium brine, could leak substances like lime, potentially leading to water pollution.

(Kavanagh et al., 2018). From PVC pipes volatile organics and substances, like organotin, and various chlorinated compounds have also been reported leaching to waters (Skjevrak et al., 2003).This can be a health concern to humans, but may also have further consequences on biodiversity. Three of the world's six flamingo species live in the region, and during summer the salar becomes a flamingo breeding ground (Aguilar-Fernandez, 2009). Water pollution could pose health problems to these flamingos and affect the number of flamingos in the region. Flamingos feed on cyanobacteria, and if there are less flamingos feeding the microbial biomass will increase, and more toxins will be produced by these cyanobacteria (Wanger, 2011). Ecological effects of toxic cyanobacterial blooms pose risks to all vertebrates present in the area (Chen et al., 2014), and therefore poses a risk to biodiversity.

Not only biodiversity and water quality are affected by lithium mining. The intensive, open-pit process occupies large pieces of the salt flat and may influence its composition or the soil quality in the surrounding regions. The traffic and infrastructure needed for extraction and distribution will damage the salt-flat as well as fauna in the nearby areas as well as producing large quantities of dust and fine particles that might change soil and water compositions. The chemicals involved in the extraction process of the material often produce high levels of alkalinity in the soil. They increase when carbon hydroxide is used to split magnesium from lithium and magnesium hydroxide is formed (Abelvik-Lawson, 2019).

Current State of the Salar de Uyuni and its inhabitants

The Salar the Uyuni covers an area of more than 10,000 km2 and is estimated to be one of

the lithium-richest deposits in the world, containing an estimated 10,2 million tons (Sanchez-Lopez, 2019). Together with around 75 other salt flats it is located at an altitude higher than 3600 meters above sea level in the Southwest of the Bolivian Altiplano (Bagley & Nazario, 2010). It can be classified as a cold desert climate. The Salar experiences two seasons: a dry season from June to September, and a rainy season from October to April.

The area of the salt flat is surrounded by four provinces and inhabited by an estimated 329 indegenous communities of Quechua and Aymara origins. The salt flat does not belong to any specific municipality because of its special characteristics, meaning that none of the communities living there have jurisdiction (Sanchez-Lopez, 2019).

Ecosystem services and sustainable livelihoods are closely related to each other and share causal relationships.

(12)

Figure 4: the interface between ecosystem services, sustainable livelihoods and food sovereignty.

As mentioned in the last chapter, and visualized in figure 4, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment distinguishes four ecosystem services: supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services. The Uyuni salt flat provides benefits to people through all four services. As previously mentioned, the supporting ecosystem services have to stay balanced to be able to provide for the regulating, cultural and provisioning services.

Provisioning ecosystem services are the goods produced by ecosystems. The Uyuni salt flat provides people with food, through quinoa agriculture and animal husbandry, freshwater and salt for selling in the region. Regulating services are for example the purification of water and climate regulations. Cultural ecosystem services include cultural, recreational and spiritual aspects of ecosystems. Among these cultural ecosystem services are the tourism that depends on the salt-flat and for instance the weather dependent way of life that the indigenous population has adapted to keep up with the wet and dry season. The salt-carvings and artworks they sell are also part of the cultural aspects of the salt-flat (Alcamo, 2003). If these ecosystem services are damaged by mining practices this might harm the natural, human and financial capital of inhabitants of the region as we will discuss now.

(13)

Impact of mining on the wellbeing of the population

Important when looking at the cross-over between the indigenous populations on the flat and the ecosystem as shown in figure 4, is the concept of sustainable livelihoods. A life is regarded as a sustainable livelihood when the five livelihood assets are met, those include human capital (health), social capital (networks), natural capital (for example land and water resources), physical capital (infrastructure) and financial capital (savings for example) (Serrat, 2017). Social capital falls outside the scope of this research as it won’t be directly affected by the mining process. The concept of sustainable livelihoods will be used to highlight the effects of natural degradation on human life as a cause of lithium mining.

For example, human capital is likely to decrease since critical levels of dust for the human population will be met due to the transportation of for instance the 4000 tonnes of produced waste per day. This is a result of trucks travelling on dirt roads, generating dust that is a severe health hazard to workers and nearby communities because it contains heavy metals that, when inhaled, can lead to diseases (Cecala et al., 2012).This matter also includes a decrease in physical capital, e.a. infrastructure, when those dirt roads become unstable due to heavy rainfall (Abelvik-Lawson, 2019). One way to mitigate this dust pollution as well as the water intensity is the use of

Magnesium Chloride Hexahydrate. Using this byproduct of lithium production to spray the sides of the dirt roads results in a 99% percent reduction of water use for this purpose and reduced dust release (Gonzalez et al., 2019). Human health is also affected by possible dust pollution of the drinking water or pollution of the agricultural products.

Natural capital in the form of fertile grounds and water accessibility decreases as well. Land becomes less fertile due to high levels of alkalinity in the soils. They increase when carbon hydroxide is used to split magnesium from lithium and magnesium hydroxide is formed. This limits the growth of quinoa plants and thus harvests decline (Abelvik-Lawson, 2019). Many people around the salt flat depend on quinoa as an important source of food and employment. Besides that, large-scale lithium extraction might also damage the tourism industry around the Salar the Uyuni, a large source of income for locals. The reflecting and desert-like properties of the salt flat bring large groups of tourists to the area. When this surface of the flat is damaged therefore by the open mining pits and all the needed infrastructure, the hospitality and souvenir business in the region might collapse. Thus, financial capital for quinoa farmers and people working in the tourist industry reduces as well (idem).

Closely intertwined with the concept of sustainable livelihoods is the term food sovereignty. Wittman (2010) defines food sovereignty specifically as ‘the right of nations and peoples to control their own food systems, including their own markets, production modes, food cultures and environments...as a critical alternative to the dominant neoliberal model for agriculture and trade’. As mentioned before, the quinoa harvest is likely to decrease and this will result in a decrease in food sovereignty.

(14)

Scenario planning and responses

The results of the DPSIR framework are the following: The main driver behind the outsourcing of lithium production to Bolivia is the need for green transportation, e.a. electric vehicles. The human activity resulting from meeting the need is the actual lithium exploitation at the Salar de Uyuni. As a consequence of this pressure, the physical, chemical, and biological state of the environment is affected. Alkalinity levels in the soil will rise and Bolivia's CO2 emissions will increase by 2% (Abelvink-Lawson, 2019). These changes in the state will subsequently affect ecosystem services. Water shortages and rising alkalinity levels will result in declining levels of quinoa production. A living on which multiple indigenous groups living around the salt flat depend upon. Due to the transportation of the expected 4000 tonnes of waste per day, the air will become dusty. Critical levels for human health will be exceeded (idem). It is uncertain to which extent the revenues of the lithium production will be beneficial to the indigenous people living near the salt flat and thus bear the costs of extraction. Scenario planning might give an insight into this dubious future. Based on both the scenario planning and the outcomes of the DPSIR

responses are formulated which either affect drivers, pressure, state or impact, or a combination of the four.

Scenario’s

The vertical axis of the scenario plot represents the amount of lithium that will be mined in the foreseeable future on the Uyuni salt flat. This is an important axis to use for these scenarios because the amount of lithium that will be mined in the area will for a big part determine the future of Bolivia and especially the future of the people around the Uyuni salt flat. In addition to that the amount of lithium that will be mined is greatly dependent on government policy and therefore quite uncertain. Being uncertain and impactful are both important properties for axes in a scenario plot according to Tromp (2018). For this exact reason the horizontal axis represents how much of the mining will be done by private companies or by government owned companies. Whether the mining will be done by private companies or by government owned companies will likely have a great impact on the people and the wealth distribution in the area.

(15)

Figure 5: Scenarios 1, 2, 3 & 4 with the used axes.

Private Profit

In the first scenario, in the upper left corner of the plot, the mining activities will drastically increase and the mining will be done by private companies. This scenario is mainly good for companies and countries as more lithium will become available on the world market lowering the costs by increasing the supply. One of the benefits of this scenario could be that private

companies can compete with each other and therefore lithium prices will likely stay at market value. However for Bolivia and the people living around the Uyuni salt flat this scenario seems to be the least beneficial or even quite negative. It is likely that very few of the profits made will end up in the hands of the local population or in social programs for the country. Also the increase in the exploitation of the mines is likely to cause damage to the ecosystems around the Uyuni salt flat and therefore impact the ecosystem services in a negative way like explained in the

Theoretical framework. The mining activities will benefit the locals temporarily by increasing the amount of jobs in the area. However this might not be positive in the long term as the lithium reserves are finite and will therefore not last forever.

Wealth to the people

In the second scenario, in the upper right corner of the plot, the mining activities will

drastically increase and the mining will be done by government-owned companies. Because of the increased mining activities in this scenario the global demand for lithium will more likely be met just like in the ‘Private Profit’ scenario. However since the mining companies in this scenario are not privately owned there might be less of a pressure to keep the lithium price low. The upside of

(16)

this scenario is that the profits made by mining will for a big part benefit the people of Bolivia because of the Vivir Bien policy. The revenues from state-led natural resource exploitation are converted into progressive social welfare programs (Lalander and Lemke, 2014). Just like in the ‘Private profit’ scenario the increased amount of mining activities form a threat for ecosystems and their services in the area. Therefore this scenario doesn’t seem to be the most positive for the local population.

Little change & Business as usual

In the third and fourth scenarios mining activities do not increase much. The scenario in the down right corner of the plot, ’Business as usual’, represents the current situation. However the scenario in the down left corner of the plot, ‘Little change’, in which the limited mining activities are done by privately owned companies will not look very different. The impact on the

ecosystems, ecosystem services, and people living close to the Uyuni salt flat is very limited in these scenarios. However, in these scenarios the local people and Bolivia as a country will also not increase their wealth by making use of the opportunities that the lithium source can provide. Also these scenarios don’t seem very positive for the rest of the world because it limits the supply of lithium, increasing the lithium price and making sustainable innovation like EV development more expensive.

Conclusion and discussion

From these scenarios it becomes clear that there does not seem to be a perfect scenario in which no harm is done to the local ecosystems and in which the people of Bolivia and the world profit from the opportunities that lithium mining in the area poses. The Private Profit scenario seems to be the least preferable for the people of Bolivia because it is very likely in that scenario that ecosystems and their services around the Uyuni salt flat will be damaged. Also it does not seem very likely that the profits made with the lithium mining will end up in social programs for the people of Bolivia. The scenarios ‘Business as usual’ and ‘Little Chance’ seem quite okay for the people living near the Uyuni Salt flat because the ecosystems won’t be damaged in those scenarios. However the people of Bolivia won’t profit from the opportunities that the lithium can potentially bring them in these scenarios. In the Wealth to the people scenario people do profit from lithium mining because the government will use the profits made by lithium mining for social programs through the Vivir Bien policies explained earlier. For that scenario we do assume that the government of Bolivia will continue this Vivir Bien policy. It could also be the case that the government changes their policies and therefore the scenario would be less positive for the people of Bolivia. Something else to keep in mind when looking at these scenarios is the fact that the techniques used for the mining, for example having the water pumps at the right distance from each other, can influence the impact on the local ecosystems. These scenarios provide an insight into what the future could be like, however they do not show us what the future will look like. There are many factors that could lead to different future scenarios which are not included in this research.

(17)

Conclusion, discussion and recommendations

The increasing demand for lithium poses both challenges and opportunities for Bolivia. This study demonstrates that the growing demand for electric vehicles and the following production growth of batteries for these vehicles is a driver for lithium expansion in the Uyuni salt flat. The data suggests that the demand for Lithium-Ion batteries will lead to the degradation of the physical, chemical and biological state of the environment surrounding the Uyuni salt flat. This will subsequently have a negative impact on water quantity, water quality, and soil quality in the area. It is uncertain to which extent the lithium mining activities will be beneficial to the people living near the salt flat. The consequences of lithium mining for inhabitants of the Uyuni salt flat can only be assessed when the mining starts being conducted on a larger scale. However, this analysis indicates that the living standards of inhabitants will most likely lower because they rely heavily on the provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services that lithium mining endangers.

This study is in line with research on the effects of lithium mining on the environment, concluding that it negatively affects ecosystem services. On the other hand, it must be mentioned here that not all research points in this direction. There is a more optimistic view that believes that lithium mining is able to create opportunities for Bolivia to shift power relations in their favour, and that it would be possible to do this in a sustainable way, for instance by using less land and avoiding leakage. Although we cannot conclude that this will not happen, it seems highly unlikely because this would require more investments.

It is beyond the scope of this study to completely take into account all factors determining the outcome of lithium mining in the Uyuni salt flat. First of all, this study is mostly based on existing research. To understand the dynamic workings of the ecosystem of the Uyuni salt flat and the interactions between its inhabitants and its ecosystem services it is necessary to conduct own research on location. Furthermore, the future of lithium mining in Bolivia is extremely dependent on the position the Bolivian government takes. Since the new administration is very new it is difficult to establish what approach it is most likely to take, and what its role will look like moving forward.

The results of this study add on to the belief that the way lithium mining is conducted has to change to avoid permanently damaging already sensitive ecosystems and endanger local

communities. Further research is needed to identify ways in which the mining process can be made less destructive and how pollution can be prevented. More careful inquiries should also be made into the position the newly elected president will take on lithium mining.

(18)

References

1. Abelvik-Lawson, H. (2019). Indigenous Environmental Rights, Participation and Lithium Mining in Argentina and Bolivia: A Socio-Legal Analysis (Doctoral dissertation, University of Essex).

2. Aguilar-Fernandez, R. (2009). Estimating the Opportunity Cost of Lithium Extraction in the Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Master's project, Duke University.

3. Agusdinata, D. B., Liu, W., Eakin, H., & Romero, H. (2018). Socio-environmental impacts of lithium mineral extraction: towards a research agenda. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9b1

4. Alcamo, J., Ash, N.J., Butler, C.D., Callicott, J.B., Capistrano, D. et al. (2003). Chapter 3: Ecosystems and Human Well-being. MEA pp 71-84.

5. Aponte-Garcia, M. (2020). Bolivia: A World Power in Lithium, the Coup d'etat and the Dispute for Technological Supremacy Between the USA and China 1, The Journal of Applied Business and Economics; Thunder Bay, 22:3, 55-58.

6. Badia-Miró, M., Pinilla, V., Willebald, H. (2015). Natural Resources and Economic Growth: Learning from History. Abingdon, United Kingdom: Taylor & Francis.

7. Bagley, B., and Nazario, O., "Lithium and Bolivia: The Promise and the Problems" (2010). Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center. 53.

8. Bankes, S.C., Lempert, R.L. & Popper, S. W. (2001) Computer-assisted reasoning, Computing in Science and Engineering, vol. 3, pp. 71-77.

9. Board, M. A. (2005). Millennium ecosystem assessment. Washington, DC: New Island, 13. 10. Bombardini, M., Kurz, C., & Morrow, P. (2012). Ricardian trade and the impact of domestic

competition on export performance. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne D'Economique, 45(2), 585-612. Retrieved December 18, 2020, from

http://www.jstor.org/stable/41485663

11. Canessa, A. (2014). Conflict, claim and contradiction in the new ‘indigenous’ state of Bolivia. Critique of Anthropology, 34(2), 153-173.

12. Cecala, A. B., O’brien, A. D., Schall, J., Colinet, J. F., Fox, W. R., Franta, R. J., ... & Schultz, M. J. (2012). Dust control handbook for industrial minerals mining and processing.

13. Chen, J., Zhang, D., Xie, P., Wang, Q., & Ma, Z. (2009). Simultaneous determination of microcystin contaminations in various vertebrates (fish, turtle, duck and water bird) from a large eutrophic Chinese lake, Lake Taihu, with toxic Microcystis blooms. Science of The Total Environment, 407(10), 3317–3322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.02.005 14. Conese, I. (2019). Was Bolivia's coup over lithium? TRTWorld.

15. Daniela Sanchez-Lopez, M. (2019). From a White Desert to the Largest World Deposit of Lithium: Symbolic Meanings and Materialities of the Uyuni Salt Flat in Bolivia, Antipode, 51:4, 1318-1339, DOI:10.1111/ANTI.12539

16. Daniela Sanchez-Lopez, M.(2019) Sustainable Governance of Strategic Minerals: Post-Neoliberalism and Lithium in Bolivia, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 61:6, 18-30, DOI: 10.1080/00139157.2019.1662659

17. DFID (1999a, 2000d, 2001) Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets, Numbers 1–8, London: Department for International Development (also available on www.livelihoods.org) 18. Dorn, F. M., & Ruiz Peyré, F. (2020). Lithium as a Strategic Resource: Geopolitics,

Industrialization, and Mining in Argentina. Journal of Latin American Geography, 19(4), 68– 90. https://doi.org/10.1353/lag.2020.0101

(19)

19. Eisler, M. (2019). Bolivian lithium: why you should not expect any ‘white gold rush’ in the wake of Morales overthrow. The Conversation.

20. Ellsmoor, J. (2019). Electric Vehicles Are Driving Demand For Lithium - With Environmental Consequences.

21. Falkenmark, M., Finlayson, M., Gordon, L., Bennett, E., & Wasson, R. (2007). Agriculture, water, and ecosystems: avoiding the costs of going too far. ResearchGate.

22. FAO (2009). Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

23. Fawthrop, A. (2020, October 9). Global lithium demand to more than double by 2024, say analysts. NS Energy.

24. Garrett, D. E. (2004). Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium Chloride (1st ed.). Academic Press.

25. Greenfield, P. (2016). Story of cities #6: how silver turned Potosí into 'the first city of capitalism'. The Guardian.

26. Gonzalez, A., Aitken, D., Heitzer, C., Lopez, C., & Gonzalez, M. (2019). Reducing mine water use in arid areas through the use of a byproduct road dust suppressant. Journal of Cleaner Production, 230, 46-54.

27. Haferburg, G., Gröning, J. A., Schmidt, N., Kummer, N. A., Erquicia, J. C., & Schlömann, M. (2017). Microbial diversity of the hypersaline and lithium-rich Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Microbiological research, 199, 19-28.

28. Harari, Y. (2017) Homo Deus. A Brief History of Tomorrow, London: Vintage.

29. Harrop, P., & Collins, R. (2019, July). Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030. IDTechEx.

30. Hetland, G. (2019). Many wanted Morales out. But what happened in Bolivia was a military coup. The Guardian.

31. Hopper, A. (2009). Recharging Bolivia: Evo Morales' Lithium Dilemma. Harvard International Review; Cambridge, 31:2.

32. Javiera Barandiarán, J. (2018). Lithium and development imaginaries in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, World Development, 113, 381-391, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.019

33. Kapoor, R. (2020). Bolivia’s new government and the lithium coup, Daily Collegian. 34. Kavanagh, L., Keohane, J., Garcia Cabellos, G., Lloyd, A., & Cleary, J. (2018). Global

Lithium Sources—Industrial Use and Future in the Electric Vehicle Industry: A Review. Resources, 7(3), 57. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources7030057

35. Kristensen, P. (2004). The DPSIR Framework. European Topic Centre on Water, European Environment Agency.

36. Lalander, R. (2014). Rights of nature and the indigenous peoples in Bolivia and Ecuador: A Straitjacket for Progressive Development Politics?. Iberoamerican Journal of Development Studies, 3(2), 148-172.

37. Liu, W., Agusdinata, D. B., & Myint, S. W. (2019). Spatiotemporal patterns of lithium mining and environmental degradation in the Atacama Salt Flat, Chile. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 80, 145–156.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.04.016

38. Messerli, B., Grosjean, M., & Vuille, M. (1997). Water Availability, Protected Areas, and Natural Resources in the Andean Desert Altiplano. Mountain Research and Development, 17(3), 229. https://doi.org/10.2307/3673850

39. Natural Resource Governance Institute (2015). The Resource Curse: The Political and Economic Challenges of Natural Resource Wealth, NGRI Reader

(20)

40. Ness, B., Anderberg, S., & Olsson, L. (2010). Structuring problems in sustainability science: The multi-level DPSIR framework. Geoforum, 41(3), 479-488.

41. OECD. (2001, November 14). Land Degradation. Retrieved October 2, 2020, from

https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1494

42. Patel, R. (2009). “Food Sovereignty” The Journal of Peasant Studies, 36(3), 663-706. 43. Perreault, T., Valdivia, G. (2010). Hydrocarbons, popular protest and national imaginaries:

Ecuador and Bolivia in comparative context, Geoforum, 41:5, 689-699.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2010.04.004.

44. Revette, A.C. (2017) This time it’s different: lithium extraction, cultural politics and development in Bolivia, Third World Quarterly, 38:1, 149-168, DOI:

10.1080/01436597.2015.1131118

45. Silvertown, J. (2015). Have ecosystem services been oversold?. Trends in ecology & evolution, 30(11), 641-648.

46. Skjevrak, I., Due, A., Gjerstad, K. O., & Herikstad, H. (2003). Volatile organic components migrating from plastic pipes (HDPE, PEX and PVC) into drinking water. Water Research, 37(8), 1912–1920. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0043-1354(02)00576-6

47. Speirs, J., Contestabile, M., Houari, Y., Gross, R. (2014). The Future of Lithium Availability For Electric Vehicle Batteries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 35, 183-193, DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.018

48. Stone, M. (2020, November 12). The world needs lithium. Can Bolivia’s new president deliver it? Grist.

49. Swain, B. (2017). Recovery and recycling of lithium: A review. Separation and Purification Technology, 172, 388-403.

50. Tromp, C. (2018). Wicked Philosophy: Philosophy of Science and Vision Development for Complex Problems (Perspectives on Interdisciplinarity). Amsterdam University Press. 51. U.S. Geological Survey. (2020, January). Lithium Data Sheet - Mineral Commodity

Summaries 2020. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf 52. Wanger, T. C. (2011). The Lithium future-resources, recycling, and the environment.

Conservation Letters, 4(3), 202–206. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-263x.2011.00166.x

53.

Wittman, H. 2010. Reconnecting agriculture & the environment: food sovereignty & the

(21)

Appendix

Data Management Table

Theory Concepts Assumptions Insights

Indigeneity “A discourse of

place and belonging” (Canessa, 2014)

Indigeneity is mostly

characterized by a minority of indigenous people, who are often marginalized. However, in contemporary Bolivia the state itself became an indigenous state and indigenous people are a majority. This event challenges former understandings of indigeneity. Sustainable livelihoods According to Alcamo (2003) there are three dimensions of sustainable livelihoods: 1) when its able to recover from stress and also maintains its capabilities and assets in the future (DFID, 1999). 2) in its social context, when it does not harm the livelihoods of others. 3) no depletion of ecosystems to the prejudice of living well. Intergenerational justice. Ethnical dimension which places healthy ecosystems before living well.

To contrast this view with the concept of human well-being and Vivir bien. Sustainable livelihoods incorporate

intergenerational justice. The third dimension of sustainable livelihoods includes a hierarchy and places the health of ecosystems above human well-being.

(22)

Food security “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” (FAO, 2009) Pyramid of Maslow. Security and basic needs have to be met.

Quinoa farmers are expected to lose their livelihoods because of climate change and the effects of mining, namely groundwater stress and increasing levels of alkalinity in the soils (Abelvik-Lawson, 2019). This might lead to food security in the region of the salt flat.

Human well-being There are five determinants of human well-being: the basic material needs for a good life, freedom and choice, health, good social relations, and personal security (Alcamo, 2003). Human well-being is the opposite of ill-being which is interchangeable for poverty. Ecosystem services provide the commodities to live well. Anthropocentric view.

The Western conceptualization of Human well-being partly overlaps the indigenous concept of Vivir bien, although differences remain. Human well-being stretches the importance of the ecosystem as providing to meet human needs. However, Vivir bien stretches the importance of living in harmony with nature. The spiritual side of cultural ecosystem services is highlighted. Sumak Kawsay / Vivir Bien Anthropocentric, ethical-philosophical notion, Indigenous principle, doctrine, alternative development (de-colonialization)

It’s the backbone of the new Bolivian constitution. It arose as Indigenous principle to live life in harmony with nature and human beings. Currently it is used as a doctrine by the Bolivian government. It is also used as alternative development pathway in contrast with Western capitalism (Lalander, 2014).

(23)

Ecosystem services The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment distinguishes four ecosystem services: supporting-, provisioning-, regulating- and cultural ecosystem services (Alcamo, 2003). Neoliberal ideology. Enchances the finalization of nature (Silvertown, 2015).

The division between the several ecosystem services helps to specify risks and hazard regarding the lithium exploitation at the Salar de Uyuni.

Circular economy recycling cradle-to-cradle LIB (lithium-ion batteries) urban mining Based on the capitalist system (in the case of a

circular lithium economy)Lithiu m market is bound to exponentially grow over the next few decades.

Only 1% of the lithium worldwide is recycled at the moment.

Recycling has many benefits reducing the environmental cost of extraction,

landfilling of the e-waste and as a solution for the predicted scarcity of lithium.It could be combined with the recovery of other metals from the battery

Hydrometalurgy seems to be the most efficient and small-scale solution. (Swain, 2017) Resource nationalism national patrimony nationalism

The Morales government also tried a policy of resourcer nationalism with their gas production, failed investment and

mismanagement finally led to Bolivia having to import gas. Bolivia’s government is overselling the benefits of lithium production to the country and overestimating bolivia’s suitability for the process (Mares,2010)

(24)

Land degradation Land degradation is the reduction or loss of the biological or economic productivity and complexity of rain—fed cropland, irrigated cropland, or range, pasture, forest or woodlands resulting from natural processes, land uses or other human activities and habitation patterns such as land contamination, soil erosion and the destruction of the vegetation cover. (Glossary of Environment Statistics,1997) Land degradation is something that should be minimised because the higher the biological or economical productivity of a piece of land the more useful that piece of land is.

There is a positive correlation between lithium mining and land degradation in a salt flat in Chile which is very similar to the Uyuni salt flat. Therefore this might also be a problem for the Uyuni salt flat in Bolivia. (Liu, 2019)

Resource

curse/paradox of plenty

The resource curse (also known as the paradox of plenty) refers to the failure of many resource-rich countries to benefit fully from their natural resource wealth, and for governments in these countries to respond effectively to public welfare needs (Natural Resource Corruption, inequality, conflict, weak state institutions, rentier state hypothesis.

The resource curse has been a primary framework for examining the role of natural resources in development (Revette, 2015). Therefore it can be used in the case of Bolivia and explaining why it is still a poor country despite all its natural resources.

(25)

Governance Institute, 2015). Resource imaginaries Useful analytical tool for identifying alternative positions characterized by distinct views of mining, development, the state and society (Barandiarán, 2019). Imaginaries are collective constructions of how individuals understand their place in a culturally and historically-specific world (Perreault & Valdivia, 2009). Sociotechnical imaginaries, identity, discourse, framing, imaginative geographies

“Imaginaries both reflect and constitute new identities and the relationships between different groups, such as citizens, indigenous communities, workers or the state” (Barandiarán, 2019). This analytical tool is thus useful in explaining why the demand for renewable energy is influenced by how people think about lithium.

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

Yet, it cannot be ignored that there is a lot of overoptimism in these research groups about the capability of indigenous knowledge to guarantee sustainable resource exploitation

Komt slepen- de melkziekte bij vijf procent van de lactaties voor, in plaats van in twee procent, dan neemt de gemiddelde schade toe tot 657 euro per bedrijf, terwijl de schade in

RESVM con- structs an ensemble model using a bagging strategy in which the positive and unlabeled sets are resampled to obtain base model training sets.. By re- sampling both P and U

Exploring and describing the experience of poverty-stricken people living with HIV in the informal settlements in the Potchefstroom district and exploring and describing

The promoter and signal peptide region of Bacillus licheniformis MBB01 lipase gene was therefore cloned, and evaluated for its potential as an expression /secretion tool

For the steel manufacturing case, little (failure) data were collected and the experience-based techniques are widely applied from a historical perspective. B) Within cluster

The results in Table 4 indicate that Chla concentrations were significantly influenced by hydrodynamic conditions of the Tucuruí reservoir such as local depth,

Based on the results of the mapping using GIS with the consideration of a variable number of flood events, local curvature of the river, slope and land use, it can be seen