An interdisciplinary scenario study on future Food Riots in Ethiopia Krijn de Groot Linde Berbers Sarah Scholten Frida Boone Interdisciplinary project, 2018 Donya Danesh University of Amsterdam 22/12/2018 Wordcount: 8300
Figure 1. Ethiopian food riots. Source:https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.forward.com/images/cropped/ethiopiariots-1475846268.jpg
The aim of this research is to investigate the consequences of precipitation change and differences in access to knowledge concerning agricultural
technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia. This has been done firstly through an extended literature study composing the natural and social economic state of Ethiopia, using earth scientific, biological and social geographic questions, from which 12 trends have been identified
influencing Ethiopian food riots together with two driving forces of the problem. Secondly a scenario analysis on the basis of these trends and the two driving forces has been conducted. Concluded can be that future precipitation is very unclear, and that variations precipitation either way will have a large negative consequence on Ethiopian agriculture. Also, the way technology concerning agricultural activities are spread will have a large impact on future agricultural yields and polarization within the country.
Table of contents
Introduction p. 4
Problem definition p. 5
Selected methods and data p. 6
Theoretical framework p. 8 Interdisciplinary integration p. 19 Results p. 21 - Scenario 1 - Scenario 2 - Scenario 3 - Scenario 4
Conclusion, discussion and recommendations p. 27
Introduction
In March 2008 a series of food riots occurred in Ethiopia (Berazneva et
al., 2013). The riots started as a consequence of rising global food prices,
prolonged drought and under- and malnourishment (hereafter: hunger) in the area (Berazneva et al., 2013). The trend of hunger in Ethiopia continued; in 2010 merely 17,7% of the Ethiopian population was food secure (Regassa et al., 2012), inducing the chance of a recurrence of the riots of 2008.
To illustrate, Ethiopia is primarily an agricultural country; around 80% of the entire population lives in the rural area and still finds itself in the early stages of the demographic transition (The World Factbook, 2017). With an urbanization rate of only 4.6% per year, this is not likely to change in the near future. Also religion plays a major role in Ethiopian society; only 0.6% of the population is faithless. Ethiopia sees a rapid growing population which causes increasing pressure on the natural state of the land, land resources and land degradation, raising vulnerability of possible food shortages (The World Factbook, 2017).
Even though the causes of the food riots in Ethiopia are widely
investigated (Alem et al., 2014 & Berazneva et al., 2013), no interdisciplinary scenario studies have been performed. The social and academic relevance of this research is therefore to provide a new perspective on future food riots in Ethiopia. Since hunger is a continuing problem in Ethiopia (Broussard et al., 2016), interventions must be found in order to prevent another series of food riots to occur.
Firstly, this research will define and justify the research objective and the research question. Also the complexity of the research problem will be
contemplated, explaining why the problem of this research is complex and why an interdisciplinary approach is necessary in order to bridge the knowledge gap. Hereafter the methodology of this research will be discussed, specifying that this research is comprised in two phases. The first phase being an
Ethiopia, using earth scientific, biological and social geographical questions. From the literature study 12 common grounds have been identified as the trends underlying food riots in Ethiopia as well as two driving forces of the problem. In the second phase these trends and driving forces will be used through a scenario analysis to design four scenarios. Next the trends, relevant theories and the main concepts will be explained in the theoretical framework. Moreover, the contrasts and overlaps within these theories and the different disciplines are shown here, integrating the perspectives into one integrated framework. Subsequently the interdisciplinary integration is explained, concerning how the disciplines are integrated by reflecting upon the chosen integration technique and through a visualization of the process. The mentioned structure will produce the final results of this paper through a comprehensive scenario analysis.
Since the trends, which are used to compose the scenarios, originate from different disciplines, interdisciplinary research is indispensable for answering the research question. The scenarios will help answer the overall research question: what are the consequences of precipitation change and differences in access to knowledge concerning agricultural technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia?
Problem Definition
The analyzed problem of this research is food riots in Ethiopia, and more specifically, what the consequences are of precipitation change and differences in access to knowledge concerning agricultural technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia. Since the occurrence of food riots is explained by several actors (Berazneva & Lee, 2013), originating from different disciplines, complexity theory can be applied. Complexity theory is a
comprehensive scientific model, which helps understanding complex problems by separating multiple interacting actors within the system (Boulton & Allen, 2007). Food riots are an example of such a complex problem. Therefore,
complexity theory is indispensable for understanding relations between actors within the complex system of food riots. Moreover, complexity theory authorizes the description of multi-, inter- or transdisciplinary research (Boulton & Allen,
Understanding the relations between the actors is necessary for
predicting the possible future of Ethiopian food riots, as this research aims to do. Since the interaction between the actors can alter the very same actor again, predicting the future in a nonlinear system can be extremely hard or even impossible (Boulton & Allen, 2007). Within this research, the actors will be presented by 12 trends, which are divided over three disciplines.
As will be explained in more depth in the methodology part of this paper, the trends will be used to compose 4 scenarios. By integrating complexity theory in the scenario composition, the possible development of the different interacting trends can be better predicted.
Trend Analysis
Concerning the food riot problem in Ethiopia, 12 major trends are identified which together form the current underlying causes of food riots. All these trends originate from three different disciplines: earth science, biology and social geography. Together they form the ‘common ground’ of the problem of food riots in Ethiopia, which will later be presented by a system diagram in the interdisciplinary integration part of this paper (Repko, 2007). This system diagram puts all the different trends in the color of their disciplines, and connects them with arrows which tells the reader if there is a negative or a positive feedback loop between these trends.
Selected methods and data
This research is conducted in two phases. The first phase is an extensive literature study composing the natural and social economic state of Ethiopia, using earth scientific, biological and social geographical questions. The second phase is a scenario analysis, based upon findings of the literature study.
The main concepts of the research will firstly be analyzed with a
literature research study using secondary literature/data. Despite the fact that secondary data tends to be less reliable than primarily data -which consists of observations, experiences and recordings-, for the purpose of this study there is no other option in this case (Walliman, 2011, p. 69). Moreover, “All research
studies require secondary data for the background to the study.” (Walliman,
2011, p.78). Nevertheless, there are a lot of academic resources such as The
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Agriculture and Food Security and
the IPCC, which provide reliable information of the data needed to investigate the food riots in Ethiopia. This literature will be collected through google
scholar, web of science and the UvA database. Therefore the literature research will provide the fundament for the problem sketch of the food riots in Ethiopia.
Yet the aim of this paper is to provide a new perspective on the problem of food riots in Ethiopia by combining three different disciplines into a
theoretical framework. Therefore, it means that this paper has a deductive reasoning; it builds upon other theories and literature studies and tries to achieve new perspectives (Walliman, 2011; p. 19). This theoretical framework will connect all the main concepts of the different disciplines and will come to new insights of the problem. This will be based on connections and links
between the secondary data of the three different disciplines. Finally, this new insights will be presented in four different scenarios on the basis of a scenario analysis.
Scenario analysis
As has been mentioned, the goal of this research is to compose a scenario analysis based on the data collected through the literature study. A scenario methodology is used to produce a document consisting of correct, consistent and complete scenarios. Scenarios consist of certain events which change the system state and/or trigger a certain event (Hsia et al., 1997). This paper aims at providing four probable future scenarios in order to set out possible
implications and solutions for food riots in Ethiopia. To achieve this, a template is made with an emphasis on the main actors, which will influence future
development. According to Hsia et al. (1997), the main actors of scenario analysis should have a very large impact, but also a certain amount of
axes, each of them depicting extremes on both sides.
Above all, the scenario analysis is the method used for integrating the different disciplines. No scenario analysis can be conducted without an
interdisciplinary approach (Maack, 2001). The effort therefore of conducting an interdisciplinary research finds its merits and successfulness in the scenario analysis.
Time frame
Since many climate models and projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) used for this research range from 50 to 100 years, a time-frame of 75 years is chosen for this research paper.
Theoretical framework
In this research, food riots are the main subject. Food riots do not evolve from one discontented person or factor. There are many factors influencing these riots (Berazneva & Lee, 2013). This theoretical framework will clarify all factors and concepts that are important to understand the current state of affairs in Ethiopia. This will be done by referring to important data and literature on the different concepts.
After the explanation of the main concepts and theories on the case in Ethiopia, the focus will be on discussing the current state in Ethiopia on the basis of 12 trends. These 12 trends have all influenced the current state of food riots in Ethiopia and will remain having influence in the future. The trends are subdivided in one of the three disciplines (biology, social geography and earth science). Hereafter the two driving factors of the scenario analysis will be discussed.
Note that, the timeframe of the different trends is an important factor to consider. Since no trend develops at the same pace, it is important to realize what trends develop in the timeframe of this research.
Population transcending factors
When analyzing trends concerning the population, the major cause of food riots in Ethiopia is hunger. Hunger arises in circumstances without enough food or when food prices are high. In Ethiopia specifically, both the poor agricultural circumstances as well as the high food price are partly due to the ongoing drought (Berazneva & Lee, 2013). Moreover, producing food for the international market poses problems for small scale farmers (Berazneva & Lee, 2013).
In the case of Ethiopia, there is not enough food supply to feed the entire population (Berazneva & Lee, 2013; Hadley et al., 2008). This results in an
by subsistence farmers (farmers who produce food for their own livestock) and the food supply for the population of Ethiopia; the food gap rose from 0.75 million tons in 1980 to 5 million tons in 1994 (Morton, 2007; Devereaux, 2000). Subsequently this gap also leads to a group that does not receive an adequate food intake and thereby faces food insecurity (Hadley et al., 2008; Negash, 2013). Currently, there are 7.78 million people food insecure in Ethiopia, thereby food insecurity is stated as a significant problem (FAO, 2017; Di Falco et al., 2011). There are multiple definitions of food security. The FAO and the World Food Summit define food security as: “...when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy and active life.” (FAO & World Food Summit, 1996; Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009). Taking this definition into consideration and the large food gap in Ethiopia, it can be concluded that Ethiopia is not food secure (Morton, 2007; Deveraux, 2000). Moreover, food insecurity is a measurement on the amount of hunger: when there is a high food insecurity, there is more hunger. The larger the gap between food production and food supply for the population, the more chance on increasing famine in a country or region (Sassen, 2012; Bedeke, 2012).
Since the rate of hunger depends on agricultural yields, one of the major causes of hunger is too little yields to feed the population (Berazneva & Lee, 2013; Hadley et al., 2008). As stated in the food security definition of the FAO and the World Food Summit, physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food at all times for people would prevent hunger in Ethiopia (FAO & World Food Summit, 1996; Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009).
Natural state of the land
Yields, on their turn, are mainly affected by the natural state of the land. The natural state consists broadly of ecosystems, soils, water availability and climate. The natural state is dependent on many circumstances and therefore difficult to analyze or to maintain in a certain way. The main factors influencing the natural state in Ethiopia are: climate change, droughts, land degradation, land management and Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) (Berazneva et al., 2013).
As a result of climate change, the climatic factors in the environment change. The natural state reacts on the state of the environment, because it depends on and is part of the environment. Since there is no overall consensus
between climatologists in how the climate of Ethiopia will change (Anyah & Qui, 2012; Williams & Funk, 2011; McSweeney et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014), projections of the effect of climate change on food riots is impeded. Some climatologists say droughts might increase (Anyah & Qui, 2012; Williams & Funk, 2011), while others say that droughts will become less prevalent (McSweeney et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014).
Land degradation is the process by which the agricultural land becomes less favorable for agricultural purposes (Bai et al., 2008). For the purpose of this research two major types of land degradation will be distinguished: salinization and nutrient depletion due to weathering. Firstly, salinization is the process of the accumulation of salts in the soil, due to an evapotranspiration surplus (Vengosh, 2003). Secondly, nutrient depletion is driven by overland flow which creates runoff; the amount of soil nitrogen and carbon is decreased, making the agricultural land less productive for agricultural purposes (Meshesha et al., 2012; Kassa et al., 2017). As a consequence of rapid population growth, limited arable land and the high intensive work on the agricultural field, the pressure on the forest en grazing land resources in Ethiopia has increased. Subsequently, land degradation has increased as a result of this exploitation and misuse of the land. Since most of the population in Ethiopia depend on agriculture for their livestock, land degradation is seen as a great challenge in the future (Taddesse, 2001).
Land management is defined as the managing and development of agricultural land. In Ethiopia the mechanization of the agricultural management is approximately the same throughout the country (Sg et al., 2016). ‘Maresha’ is a tillage technique that uses large ploughs (Kidane, 2014; Nyssen et al., 2015). This tillage technique induces soil erosion (Kidane, 2014; Nyssen et al., 2015). Additionally, LUCC is the process of changing the surface of the earth by changing the economic purpose of the land (Meshesha et al., 2012).
Human factors, interactions and choices
Besides the natural state of the land, human factors, interactions and choices influence the possibility of food riots to occur. First of all, due to Ethiopia having the highest number of HIV infections on the global scale, illness of agricultural employees is also a great challenge in Ethiopia (Hladik et al., 2006). Subsequently, illness affects the land management, because crops can be
neglected, since those farmers are not able to work when they are ill (Dercon & Krishnan, 2000).
Some other minor effects that directly influence food riots are improper pest control and social polarization. Pest can play a detrimental part in crop yields. Those pests need to be combated in order to prevent failing harvests (Shenkut et al., 2006). Social polarization is the segregation within a society as a result of inequality resulting in different social groups associated with, for example, high or low income. This can cause dissatisfaction among members of those groups (Sassen, 2012).
Most importantly, the Ethiopian population is growing extremely fast (Kloos & Adugna, 1989; Tadesse, 2001). Poverty and hunger are also affected by a greater rise in population rate than the growth of the economy or the growth of the food production (Broussard & Tandon, 2016). If the personal yields fail, food can be bought from neighboring farmers or countries to
minimize the hunger. However, large parts of the Ethiopian population are not able to buy food, due to lacking monetary resources.
Justification
The theoretical framework has an underlying approach of an
interdisciplinary study, since it consists of different factors originating from several disciplines. The complexity theory is a proper method to combine these disciplines, since it is able to help predicting possible futures. The major
advantage of using this theory in this research is helping to predict possible futures, because this research will develop a scenario analysis with four trends. The theoretical framework in combination with the system diagram, form the link between those disciplines. This complexity explains that the focus lays on the scenarios, so that the three disciplines can be combined.
12 trends
Biology
Pests and diseases
All crop species are susceptible to diseases both in the field or after harvest (Strange & Scott, 2005). Pathogens are mainly introduced due to migration facilitated by humans (Bebber et al., 2013). Besides, due to globalization, plant species grow in areas far from their origin and might not be able to withstand
the domestic pathogens of that area (Strange & Scott, 2005). Although there are multiple methods to address pests (Damte & Tabor, 2015), indigenous farmers rely on little knowledge about pests and how to combat them (Mendesil
et al., 2007; Amera et al., 2017). This results in incorrect pest management
(Williamson et al., 2007; Damte & Tabor, 2015; Amera et al., 2017). Only proper use of pesticides is efficient, otherwise it can affect the crops and the farmers negatively (Williamson et al., 2007). .
The application of genetically modified organism techniques
Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) are defined as organisms which are created by taking a beneficial trait from one living organism and
introducing it into a new organism to help it thrive in its environment. Those organisms can be planted anywhere (Beringer, 2000; Nandeshwar, 2015). It is claimed that genetically modified crops can be immune for certain threats, grow faster, have higher yields and they might contain more nutrients. Although, there will be more food security (Azadi & Ho, 2010), there are also many
concerns. In September 2009, Ethiopia presented a biosafety law regarding the GMO regulation system, which is mainly limiting on biotechnologies and tries to be protective (Abraham, 2013). The composition has been done by the
Environmental Protection Authority, which is judged of not looking at the advantages of GMO but also at containing the quality of the yields. Nowadays, all field releases of GMO are forbidden in Ethiopia (Nang’ayo, 2006).
Health of farmers and workers
There are various causes of illness among farmers in Ethiopia (Hladik, et
al., 2006). The three main causes are HIV & aids, mal- and undernutrition and
malaria (Maleta, 2006; Ogundari et al., 2016; Guthmann et al., 2007). Since in Ethiopia, usually all family members work together on their farm (Dercon & Krishnan, 2000), they face risks and varieties in their income in case of sickness (Beyene, 2008; Dercon & Krishnan, 2000). Because this results in decreasing labour capacity on the farms, and thereby less yield (Dercon & Krishnan, 2000; Salama et al., 2001; Ulimwengu, 2009).
The application of fertilizer can improve the growth and yield of crops significantly (Bayu et al., 2006).
Fertilizer is expensive and most of the time limited in supply. Poor farmers rarely use fertilizer (Amanuel et al., 2000). However, there are also
negative consequences from the use of fertilizer, including leaching, runoff, emission and eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems (Miransari, 2011). The use of fertilizer in Ethiopia has been increased through the years. 95% of this part is used by subsistence
farmers (Croppenstedt et al., 2003). Figure 2 emphasizes this increase of fertilizer use.
Social geography Population growth
In 2004, the total population of Ethiopia was estimated at 69 million people. This was expected to grow to a number of 170 million people in the future (Alexandratos, 2004). Other sources such as the department of Economic and Social affairs and the population division of the United Nations also
estimate the total population of Ethiopia at roughly 176 million people in 2045 (United nations, 2015). Figure 3 visualizes the population increase of only the last two decades. For the reason that more people in the future also means more people to feed, countries such as Ethiopia will face increasing pressure in the future on their food supply, food insecurity and undernourishment
(Alexandratos, 2004).
Figure 2.Fertilizer use in Ethiopia from 2002 till 2014. Source: FAOSTAT, 2015.
Food price
Ethiopia has faced major food price inflations over the past 10 years. Figure 4 shows the Ethiopian consumer price index from 2000 to 2011
(Lindberg, 2013). The overall inflation increase between 2007-2008 was 27,2% (Lindberg, 2013). This is first of all a result of the increase of the global food prices; the food price index of the FAO reached a peak that was almost 160% greater than the lowest point in 2007 (FAO, 2011). The rising food price had a significant influence on African countries, in particular on Ethiopia (Benson et
al., 2008). Hadley et al. (2011) refers to Minot (2010) who states that the food
price of Ethiopia increased with percentages between 83% and 184% more than the baseline of the domestic price (Minot et al., 2010 cited in Hadley et al., 2011).
The fluctuation of the food price in Ethiopia is also partly the result of the ongoing droughts; Ethiopia faced a long period of drought in 2007. Since there is no consensus about whether or not Ethiopia will be facing more droughts in the future, future food price fluctuations are still uncertain (Sassen, 2012; Demeke et al., 2008; Lindberg, 2013).
Poverty
In 2000, Ethiopia had one of the highest poverty rates in the world (World Bank Group, 2015). Since then, the country has experienced progress in the wellbeing and welfare of her population; the amount of people living in poverty fell from 44% in 2000 to 30% in 2011. This decrease in poverty was mainly the result of agricultural and economic growth, taking into account that the country knew an annual economic growth of 10.9% (World Bank Group, 2015).
Moreover, in comparison to other African countries, the pace of poverty
Figure 3.Expected population growth of Ethiopia. Source: FAOSTAT, 2017.
reduction in Ethiopia was significantly high; only Uganda saw a higher annual poverty reduction during the same period (World Bank Group, 2015).
Even though the poverty rate in Ethiopia has made a remarkable
reduction since 2000, it is still significantly low in comparison to other countries outside Africa (FAOSTAT, 2015). Figure 5 shows the Gross Domestic Product per Capita in the United States (US) dollars for Ethiopia, Brazil and the
Netherlands. The choice of comparing Ethiopia with Brazil and the Netherlands comes from the fact that Brazil is a developing country and the Netherlands is a developed country. Thus, Ethiopia is, from a global perspective, still far behind on the other developing and developed countries (FAOSTAT, 2015).
Figure 5.Comparison of the Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDP) in US dollars for Ethiopia, Brazil and the Netherlands. Source: FAOSTAT, 2015.
Polarization
Due to the large amount of the population living in rural areas and the high level of poverty in Ethiopia, the rising food price has had a significant impact on the country (Hadley et al., 2011). The higher food prices resulted subsequently in an increase of food insecurity for all Ethiopian households, yet the rate of food insecurity was not equally distributed. A study by Hadley et al. (2011) reveals that the rural households became more food insecure than the urban households due to the fact that rural households are poorer (Hadley et
al., 2011). This resulted in polarization of the rural and urban households in
Ethiopia (Hadley et al., 2011). This division of the rural and urban population in Ethiopia is captured in figure 6. As the figure shows, 79,6% of the people in live on the rural land, working on the farm and only 20,4% of the population lives and works in the city (FAOSTAT, 2017).
Similar to the data of FAOSTAT, Hadley et al. (2011) and Berazneva & Lee (2013) refer to the polarisation between producers (farmers on the rural land) and consumers (households in urban areas) in Ethiopia. Whereas a higher food price leads to benefits for producers, the consumers are facing more food insecurity (Berazneva & Lee, 2013).
Figure 6.The division of rural and urban population in Ethiopia. Source: FAOSTAT, 2017.
Earth science
Traditional agricultural techniques
In Ethiopia, the status of mechanization and agricultural methods are roughly the same throughout the country (Sg et al., 2016). Even though
Ethiopian agriculture is highly susceptible to climate variation, merely 0.8% of its agriculture is supported by irrigation (Bachewe et al., 2015). Moreover, this percentage has not statistically changed over the last couple of decades. This means that the agricultural land of Ethiopia will be more deeply affected by droughts, taking in considering the occurrence of droughts in the future and that there will be no improved irrigation system to protect the yield (Bachewe
et al., 2015).
Throughout Ethiopia the traditional ‘Maresha’ tillage technique is used to cultivate the pastures (Kidane, 2014; Nyssen et al., 2015). This technique is said to induce land degradation (Kidane, 2014; Asmamaw et al., 2012). Additionally, population and livestock growth go hand in hand (FAOSTAT, 2016), causing the
process of overgrazing, accompanied by land degradation, to prevail in most parts of Ethiopia (FAOSTAT, 2016; Mwendera & Saleem, 1996).
Salt accumulation
Salt accumulation occurs when evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. Since Ethiopia has major parts with semi-arid climates (McSweeney et al., 2010), salt accumulated soils are becoming more prevalent in the arid parts of Ethiopia (Asfaw et al., 2016; Zewdu et al., 2015). The amount of salt
accumulation has a negative relation with the amount of crops yielded (Tesfaye
et al., 2014; Adane et al., 2015). Land Use Cover Change (LUCC)
Over the last couple of decades the Ethiopian population grew nearly exponentially (Kibret et al., 2016; Kloos & Adugna, 1989). In all parts of
Ethiopia, forests and grasslands have to make room for pastures and meadows, to maintain the underprivileged growing Ethiopian population (Tadesse, 2001; Kibret et al., 2016). Meshesha et al. (2012) state that poverty is one of the major drivers behind the process of LUCC in Ethiopia. Consequently, the decrease in forests and grasslands has had significant negative impact on the richness of the biodiversity in Ethiopia, leading to a monoculture of pastures and meadows (Meshesha et al., 2012). The Loss of forest from 1972 to 2013 is shown in figure 7 (Kibret et al., 2016).
Runof
In Ethiopia, the amount of precipitation varies substantially throughout the year (McSweeney et al., 2010). The dry season is alternated by a wet season, which induces the amount of runoff caused by overland flow. The runoff sediments silt the water basins, reducing the amount of available water (Lemann et al., 2016).
Choosing the axes
Precipitation
According to the literature, precipitation has a major influence on food security in Ethiopia (FAO, 2003). Agriculture is central in supporting economic growth and livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, contributing over 40% of the total GDP (Kotir, 2011; Gleixner et al., 2017). The dominant agriculture form in Ethiopia is small-scale subsistence farming (FAO, 2007). Also, 70% to 80% of all agriculture in Ethiopia is rain-fed (You & Ringler, 2010, Bachewe et al., 2015, Kotir, 2011, IPCC 2014, Anyah & Qui, 2012). This rain-fed farming covers up to 97% of all cultivated land for crops, which exposes the production of agriculture to high variability in seasonal precipitation. Current struggles in agriculture therefore are in correlation with occurring droughts (Bachewe et al., 2015).
Many of the food riots in Ethiopia are connected to large droughts (FAO, 2003), yet future scenarios are unsure whether precipitation will increase or decrease in the future (McSweeney et al., 2010). McSweeney et al., (2010) argue that the mean temperature will increase from 1.1 to 3.1 Celsius by 2060, and from 1.5 to 5.1 degrees by 2090. For variations in precipitation they find a medium consistency for an increase of annual rainfall and also more extreme rainfall events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) also predicts an increase in rainfall and main temperature in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet when it comes to Ethiopia specifically, there is no persistent view; the IPCC (2014) presents uncertainty as to how precipitation will change in regions where precipitation is linked to the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
last 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times as fast as the
Tropical Pacific did. These increases in the sea surface temperatures (SST) they argue, explain the anomalies and variance which are associated with ENSO. Anyah & Qui (2012) also estimate that less precipitation will occur during dry seasons in Ethiopia, leading to an increase in the frequency of droughts, and desertification.
According to Omondi et al., (2014) and Anyah & Qiu (2012), climate change will most likely set back development and the production of food. It is expected for example to have a major negative impact on wheat productivity (Araya et al., 2017) due to that wheat in Ethiopia is grown under the rain-fed type of agriculture. Therefore changes in rainfall will be the most limiting aspect for wheat yield. You & Ringler (2010) concluded that the most adverse consequences of climate change on agriculture will be a changing of the water balance and a decrease in the water supply for crops due to that higher
temperatures will increase evapotranspiration resulting in a reduction in soil moisture. Likewise, the IPCC (2014) concludes that overall climate change will have a negative effect on yields of the major cultivated crops.
It is important to note that neither a large increase nor a large decrease in precipitation is beneficial to future agricultural yields. Blaikie et al., (2014) explain that “Floods are caused by weather phenomena and events that deliver
more precipitation to a drainage basin than can be readily absorbed or stored within the basin.”. Due to the natural aridity of Ethiopian soil, a large increase
in precipitation can cause severe floods negatively impacting agricultural yields. Floods can also cause more runoff, leaching the soil of nutrients and inducing land degradation. Other possible consequences are landslides. On the other hand, as a decrease in precipitation causes more water to evaporate, salt
accumulation in the soil poses a threat to the usability of the soil for agriculture (Lal et al., 1989), a process called salinization. Rockstrom, 2000 argues that the current constraints on agriculture in the form of water availability are not only droughts, but also the insufficient amount of water towards the crops, in wet seasons. As seen from figure 8, even less water would reach the surface if total
precipitation would decrease.
Figure 8.Water reaching the soil. General overview of rainfall partitioning in farming systems in the semi-arid tropics of sub-Saharan Africa. R = seasonal rainfall, Es = Evaporation (from soil and interception), EC = plant transpiration, Roff = surface runoff,
To conclude, some say that Ethiopia will experience more droughts (Anyah & Qui, 2012; Williams & Funk, 2011). Others say that this is the other way around (McSweeney et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014). Due to the uncertainty of future precipitations and the large impact of precipitation on yields and
therefore on food security, precipitation is chosen as one of the driving forces in the scenario analysis (Blaikie et al., 2014).
One of the major problems in the system of the Ethiopian agricultural research is the absence of adequate proliferation methods of the agricultural knowledge (Abera et al., 1996). Many of Low Developed Countries (LDCs) have adopted policies of trade liberalization over the last couple of years (Haile et al., 2014). Due to the process of liberalization, these countries face challenges as to how to increase and spread the knowledge of technological agricultural
techniques in order to be able to participate in the international and national markets. Mayer (2000) argues that LDCs need better ways to integrate and absorb the access to technology, and also better institutions and policies which encourage the types and amounts of the new technology that they can import (Haile et al., 2014).
Therefore, it is important to understand the existing informal and formal communication networks and proliferation methods. According to Tesfaye et al., (2005), the understanding of these networks and communications could help the development of the proliferation of technological agricultural knowledge. Particularly for smallholder subsistence farmers, which make up 70 to 87% of all farmers in Ethiopia (You & Ringler, 2010, Bachewe et al., 2015, Kotir, 2011, IPCC 2014, Anyah & Qui, 2012), the informal communication networks are the most important source of information. Because the dissemination of the
technological agricultural knowledge is the most limiting factor in agricultural activities in Ethiopia and therefore in yields and food security, it is chosen as the second axis of the scenario analysis.
For the purpose of the scenario analysis, two sides of access to
agricultural technology are proposed. The first extreme is unequal access to agricultural technology. This means that only the small upper class in Ethiopia gets access to knowledge of new agricultural techniques with the consequence that polarization in the country will grow. The reason for this is that only the upper class has the capital to invest in new techniques which the lower class does not have. Also there will be a larger scale production of agricultural
output. This output is in the hands of only a small few, increasing incentives for export, making Ethiopia a larger player on the international market. This in turn, will lead to more employment opportunities due to the larger scale of production. However, in case of severe droughts and crop failure, small farmers will have the tendency to sell their land to the larger producers, increasing polarization again. Also, because of new and knowledge concerning agricultural practices, less land degradation will occur on specific places. And, because only
some have access to the technological knowledge, farmers will have an
incentive to compete with other farmers which promotes innovation and further improve yields.
The other extreme is perfectly equal access to knowledge of new agricultural techniques to all of the Ethiopian farmers. This will decrease polarization, because the lower class will also be able to increase their yields, closing the gap between the poor subsistence farmers and the larger scale productions. However, this will not increase competition between farmers, for the reason that everyone has access to the same knowledge. This in turn will not lead to more innovation. So it can be argued whether this type of
intervention will shift the burden to the intervener; is helping Ethiopia’s farmers in such manner merely symptom management? Land degradation will decrease over the entire country, due to better overall land management. However, Ethiopia will not be a player on the international market, due to small scale production.
Interdisciplinary integration
Common grounds
All three disciplines (biology, earth science and social geography) have their own perspectives on the problem of food riots in Ethiopia. In this section of the paper, the main findings of all different disciplines will be compared to
As already mentioned, the trends will be the base of this research. In order to unify the disciplines, the trends are combined in one framework (figure 9). This integrated framework visualizes feedback loops between all trends and the common grounds. For an interdisciplinary research such as this, common grounds are important to be able to determine the main trends and problems of the case study. Moreover, Repko (2007) states in his paper about integrating interdisciplinarity that “...common ground is what makes integration possible.” The common grounds are presented in the integrated framework. This figure will show that there are 12 main trends that are of great influence on the state of food riots in Ethiopia in the past and in the future. Therefore, it is also clear that there are 12 common grounds existing in this framework. Later on, they will be used in the scenario analysis.
Many trends are either direct or indirect connected to each other. Since there are trends from every discipline this integration forms the framework for this interdisciplinary analysis. It visualizes clearly the feedback loops present in this research. Feedback loops occur when the outgoing connection from a trend will come back as input. A positive feedback loop exists in case of multiple positive connections. In this case, the effects of the trends concerned will be intensified. LUCC, Runoff and salt accumulation form a positive feedback loop in the framework. Therefore, these trends will reinforce each other. Another
positive feedback loop exists among LUCC, Poverty and Traditional agricultural techniques, resulting in an increasing situation of these trends. On the other hand, there can be found negative feedback loops, which will stabilize the situation. These feedback loops can be found between the Food price and population growth, this means that these trends stabilize their situation. Besides, there is a negative feedback loop between Population growth and the Health of farmers & workers. Lastly, Traditional agricultural techniques, Applying GMO techniques and Fertilizer use form a negative feedback loop.
Moreover, the common grounds are depicted in this framework, because there are some trends directly connected to trends from the other two
disciplines. There are two common grounds: Traditional agricultural techniques and Poverty.
Integrated framework
Results
Scenarios
In the resulting part of this paper, the four scenarios will be presented. As mentioned before, these scenarios are composed on the basis of 12 trends, which are identified from the common grounds of different scientific research. Since scenarios contain an inevitable amount of uncertainty, the scenario is written as a narrative to bypass the posing nature of academic writing (Maack, 2001). In figure 10 a visualization regarding the conclusions of the scenario analysis can be seen.
The four scenarios tell the story of a subsistence farmer, Biniam, and his family farm. Biniam lives in the Central Rift Valley, one of the most crowded areas of Ethiopia. What are the possible consequences of low or excessive precipitation for Biniam and his family? And, how will the religious Ethiopian population likely react on western knowledge?
Scenario 1 Equal access to technology and low rates of
precipitation
It is the year of 2020 and Ethiopia’s farmers are moving to a more stable life. Working on the land has been tough. However, due to the increased
knowledge about agricultural activities, most farmers have not seen their yields fall as a consequence of severe droughts. Irrigation is applied more across the country as farmers apply their new acquired knowledge. Also the introduction of drought tolerant crop species are making their way on the land of Ethiopian farmers.
2020
There have been some changes in the village of Biniam. People from NGOs have made several appearances teaching him and his neighbors more about how to cultivate agricultural land in a more sustainable manner. They have also come to talk about a new species of crops, which are more drought resistant, a way to water crops without wasting it, and how to apply fertilizer. ‘I don’t know whether to trust these people’, Biniam says to his son Eyob.
2040
Slowly but surely, Biniam and Eyob invest their savings into new
technologies and sees a more stable source of food coming from his land. The process of modernization is taking a lot of time to advance, since money is scarce. Although droughts have been bad, his yields have been fairly stable. Due to drought resistant crops and irrigation, Biniam can cultivate his land in order to provide just enough to feed his family. The occurrence of food riots has been limited, due to that a lot of farmers have access to new and better ways of managing their lands.
2060
Sustaining enough yields is getting more and more difficult for Eyob, since Biniam passed away he and his brothers are responsible for the family farm. Land degradation in the form of salinization is degrading his land. He knows in theory how he can remedy this, yet there is not enough money and above all water to mitigate the salinization issues. Despite this, Biniam sees that more people are struggling with the same problem he is.
2080
The increasing droughts have brought many farmers from neighboring villages together and same leave to the cities. In order to alleviate the stress on the land, they bundled up resources and shared each other’s land. This way, two families work on the land of one family, while the land of the other family lies fallow, in order to regenerate. This process is called sharecropping, which mitigates all sorts of land degradation.
2095
‘Times are hard!’, Eyob mugs to his wife ‘Still, the land gives enough to feed our children.’. When a family is in trouble, the rest of the villagers help out. By bundling all knowledge, most farmers in Ethiopia have created a new way of living and managing their land in a way that is more sustainable. Food riots have been a rare occurrence, since there is less division in the country.
It is 2020 and Biniam can now properly take care of his farm, due to increased knowledge about agricultural technologies. In order to prevent their crops from dying and to produce a higher yield, farmers start working together. Biniam even starts using pesticides in order to prevent pests to spread all over their crops. Due to the right pesticides management used this helps well. 2020
By the year of 2020, Biniam has his first course on agricultural technologies by NGOs. These courses include information about using
pesticides correctly and how to irrigate the soil properly. Besides, it is becoming clear how to apply fertilizer to the plants. ‘If I only had the money to apply all I know now..’, Biniam tells his son as they walk to their farm.
Since there is more precipitation, droughts are less prevalent than they used to be. Biniam does not have to irrigate, which saves him plenty of
investment money. Besides, the increased rain promotes his yields, what enriches Biniam’s family.
2040
Biniam gained an abundance of knowledge about proper agricultural technologies. He implements these technologies on his farm. Since Biniam was able to save money from the wet years, the implication goes rather fast.
Pesticides and insecticides are still too expensive for Biniam and most of the other villagers.
‘We have made enough wooden boards. We only need to attach these boards on the inside of the gutters, and we are done!’, Biniam instructs the villagers. The villagers are getting ready for the rain season.
2060
Since Biniam passed away, his oldest son Eyob is responsible for the family farm. Eyob is a successful farmer; his children attend school and Eyob is able to trade off his surplus of yields at a local market. But moreover, Eyob managed to imply pesticides and insecticides on his farm, increasing the yields even more so.
Due to higher income from the yields and a healthy family, there are less workers needed on the farm. Therefore, the youngest children are able to attend school. However, Eyob is struggling with the problems that accompany high rates of precipitation. At the courses, he learned how to catch the water and prevent it from over saturating the soil. Yet, it is still difficult to imply and getting the right methods, since the cursists only know so much about the Ethiopian lands.
2095
At last, an equal community with modernizing farmers has been achieved. There is little to no polarization, because of this equality. Resulting from this equality, people are more willing to work together and share information. Farmers use pesticides, fertilizer and try to carry off the runoff water. Forests and grasslands are domesticated at a slower pace, since the youngest
Ethiopians learn the ways of birth control and sustainable agriculture in school.
Scenario 3 Unequal access to technology and low rates of
precipitation
Ethiopia lives in big uncertainty in 2020; no rain has fallen for months and farmers do not know how to maintain the growth of their crops. As in the past, the ongoing drought have led to low yields and subsequently low food security. Moreover, the unequal access to agricultural technology will lead to more polarization and unrest.
2020
‘We cannot afford another bad harvest’, says Biniam as he rubs in his tired eyes. This summer, he and his family can live of the savings Biniam’s father made over the wetter years. For some families the drought claimed its toll; they are forced to sell their properties to large landowners, to be able to buy food for their starving families. Some are able to work on the land, while others are obligated to move to the richer cities. ‘The city holds riches and work’, tell Biniam as he and his son wave goodbye to yet another family.
As Biniam died of starvation, his oldest son Eyob is responsible for the family farm. Eyob had to rent the family farm to the large landowners of the village. The large landowners altered the land in a strange way; they installed irrigation infrastructure and are now able to withstand the dry periods. ‘One day, we will have to take our riches, or find work in the city’, Eyob ensures his son.
2060
The rural Ethiopian lands went through a comprehensive metamorphose; the agricultural lands are dominated by monocultural and moreover irrigated pastures. Machines are taking work away from poor rural inhabitants and more people are forced to find salvation in the cities.
Eyob, and what is left of his family, were forced to move to the city as well. In the city, there are a lot of housing issues, unrest and polarization and people tend to steal/riot their food. Some lucky ones are able to work in the factories or earn some black money, but there are simply too many people for too little work.
2080
The once proud family of Biniam is scattered throughout the large slum of the city. Some of them make their living of criminal activities, while others managed to get a job at the factories. (Food) riots occur at a daily basis and the majority of people is very dissatisfied.
On the contrary, the families of once large landowners, flourish greatly. Their riches are for example invested in large factories for the poor population to work in. However, their riches are stolen and destroyed in large riots
organized by civil movements.
2095
So, in 2095, Ethiopia is transformed into an industrialized country. The transformation was rather bloody; the sudden displacement of the poor rural farmers led to the creation of a large group of dissatisfied poor urban
inhabitants. In low productive city, there was not enough work for all the former farmers, inducing the occurrence of food riots.
Scenario 4 Unequal access to technology and high rates of
precipitation
It is the year of 2020 and Ethiopia is thriving; yields have been good for several consecutive years now and families become bigger, as there is enough food available to satisfy everybody’s needs. Most of Ethiopia’s population is becoming wealthier by selling their surplus of food on local, and for some on international markets.
2020
Just outside Cinile in Ethiopia, there lives a farmer who is having the time of his life. Biniam, who has 14 family members, runs a successful family farm in the Central Rift Valley in Ethiopia. Accompanied by his oldest son Eyob, Biniam trades the surplus of crops at a local market place near Dire Dawa. They got some milk for their young children, but on their way home they noticed something odd. Around Cinile’s biggest farms, diges are dug and wooden boards are installed around these diges. ‘They are altering God’s lands’, says Biniam with a look of disgust on his face.
2040
‘Dear God! Will you have ever stop the rain!’, yells Biniam as he watches his crops wash off his pasture. Around the large farms, the water flows directly into a giant pool of sand and the crops seem to grow steadily.
Straight-structured monoculture farms facilitate sowing, ploughing and yielding.
At least Biniam can feed his family this summer, since he saved up some money from the prosperous years. The rain seems to increase every year. More families sell their land to large landowners; some even flee to the nearby cities to find a job. Moreover, many displaced farmers start selling illegally chopped wood. The cut down forests are domesticated, and firstly used for grazing and lastly for crop cultivation.
2060
Since Biniam passed away, Eyob is now responsible for the farm and the subsistence of the large family. The heavy annual rain flushed away large parts of his land; meters wide gullies emerged in the pasture over the years. The family’s savings have decreased, since the land became less productive over
already lost most of his family to undernourishment. Eyob asked himself ‘Will I be able to turn the tide’?.
Eyob managed to get a job at a large farm, to provide for his family. The large farms invested in irrigation systems, which pump water from a large pool of sand nearby. With the network of flood adaptation and irrigation, the large and wealthy farmers are able to produce food under all weather variables.
2080
‘... so you must leave!’, says the sharp dressed man, as Eyob hares away defeated. He got fired from working on the large farm. Now that Eyob does not have a job anymore, he must find his and his family’s salvation somewhere else. His job got replaced by a shiny metal machine. He even heard rumours that the mortality rate rose because of the smelly stuff that he had to put on the crops. Eyob and what is left of his family, pack all their belongings and will go find work in the city.
2095
As Eyob grapes his painful back, he speaks to his oldest son ‘I can’t do it anymore...’. Working in the factory claimed its toll. Living in the city is hard for the workforce, only the very rich prosper. Nevertheless, there is enough food for those with a job and money, so the death rate is low.
For those who lack sufficient money for food anything to subsist their family is allowed. Large (food)riots occur throughout the cities. Civil movements combat the wealthy establishment of industrialists; civil war almost breaks out between the large civil movements and the corrupted governmental army.
Conclusion, discussion and recommendations
To summarize, this research analyzed what the consequences are of precipitation change and differences in access to knowledge concerning agricultural technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia. In order to answer this, the research has been conducted in two phases. The first phase consisted of an extensive literature study composing the natural and social economic state of Ethiopia, making use of earth scientific, biological and social geographical disciplines. As a result 12 trends were
identified as factors underlying the causes of food riots in Ethiopia. In addition, two driving forces of the problem were identified. In the second phase a
scenario analysis has been conducted resulting in four scenarios based upon the mentioned trends and the driving forces. These trends, relevant theories and the main concepts have been explained through a theoretical framework. Also, the contrasts and overlaps within these theories and the different disciplines have been discussed by integrating the perspective into an integrated
framework. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary integration has been explained, concerning the integration of the different disciplines through a reflection upon the chosen integration technique and a visualization of the process.
As a result, from the scenario analysis it can be concluded that future precipitation is very unclear, and that variations precipitation either way will have a large negative consequence on Ethiopian agriculture. Also, the way technology concerning agricultural activities are spread will have a large impact on future agricultural yields and polarization within the country.
Altogether, the theoretical and practical consequences of this research is the provision of an in-depth, interdisciplinary scenario analysis, which has until now not been done before concerning food riots in Ethiopia. There are however limitations to this research. The food riot problem is a problem that cannot be fully analyzed making use of only earth sciences, biology and social geography. In order to fully comprehend the driving forces and trends which underlie the problem of food riots, more factors should be taken into account. For example political stability can have a large impact on the way problems are addressed and mitigated in a country. The way a country is governed either positively or negatively affects the monetary and fiscal policy, investments in education, research and development, education and healthcare. Demographic profile and fertility rate should be investigated more and also the history of Ethiopia can be taken into account to provide a better understanding of the country.
Finally, the authors of this paper therefore propose future research into the abovementioned factors and more, in order to provide a full comprehensive framework of the underlying factors concerning Ethiopian food riots. Also, as has been mentioned, future precipitation in Ethiopia is still unclear. An increase or a decrease in precipitation has severe ramifications concerning the future of Ethiopian agriculture. Thus, climate researches should put more focus on future Ethiopian precipitation, only then can the country start taking precautionary measures.
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