Do green parties matter?
Analysing the effect of green partisanship on the
presence of sustainable energy initiatives in Dutch
municipalities through comparative analysis.
Tommie Vermaat
S2163276
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Do green parties matter?
Analysing the effect of green partisanship on the presence of
sustainable energy initiatives in Dutch municipalities through
comparative analysis.
Leiden University
Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs Public Administration MSc
International and European Governance
Master Thesis
Name: Tommie Vermaat
Student number: S2163276
Advisor: Dr E. V. Bondarouk
Second reader: Dr G. E. Breeman
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Abstract
This thesis examines the relationship between green partisanship at municipal level and the presence of sustainable energy initiatives. Previous studies found contradicting results in their analysis of partisanship at the local level. Some scholars argue that the partisan effect at the local level matches the effect at national level, while others found that the effect of municipal partisanship is limited due to the constraints that municipalities face. Given the discretionary room for municipal decision-makers in the policy area of sustainable energy generation, this thesis hypothesises that clear partisan effects will emerge. The results indicate that the hypotheses only partially hold. This thesis found that partisanship makes accurate predictions about the presence of sustainable energy initiatives in about 58 per cent of all governments analysed. A conjunctural causation appears to link the partisan effect to the number of sustainable energy initiatives. These findings have important implications for the theoretical understanding of the influence of partisanship on the municipal level.
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction ... 1 Social relevance ... 4 Academic relevance ... 5 2. Theoretical framework ... 6 Implementation research ... 6 Partisan theory ... 7 Hypotheses ... 9 3. Methods ... 12 Case selection ... 12 Data collection ... 14 Independent variable... 15 Dependent variable ... 15 Data analysis ... 16Validity and reliability ... 18
4. Results and Analysis ... 19
Electoral programs ... 20 H₁: Council ... 24 H₂: Coalition ... 26 H₃: Mayoral partisanship ... 28 Alternative hypotheses ... 32 5. Conclusion ... 34 Limitations ... 35 Recommendations ... 36 6. References ... 38 7. Appendices ... 43
Appendix I: Justification of coding ... 43
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1. Introduction
In December 2015, a total of 195 states negotiated the Paris Agreement at the 21st Conference
of the Parties of the United Nations Climate Change Conference. One of the key results was the agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2 degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (UN, 2015, art. 2). The Netherlands is obliged to adhere to ambitious climate policy since it ratified the Paris Agreement in August 2017. After four months of negotiations between hundreds of stakeholder organisations, the Dutch Climate Change Conference published the Climate Agreement in July 2018. The report presents broadly supported commitments that enable the Netherlands to meet the targets established in the Paris Agreement. One of the means to meet the demanding goals set by the agreement is the increased usage of sustainable energy. Due to their high consumption of energy, cities are key arenas in which the concept of sustainable energy usage can be applied (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2005). The main focus of this thesis lies at the intersection of municipalities and sustainable energy usage. More specifically, it analyses the partisan influence within municipal governments on the number of sustainable energy initiatives within Dutch municipalities.
Arguably, international issues such as climate change and the sustainable usage of energy call for an international response (Engel, 2006). Why, then, does this thesis directs its attention to the lowest level of government? The primary reason for the focus on municipalities—as opposed to regional, national, or supranational governments—is their policy implementing capability. Although national governments make environmental commitments in the international arena, their implementation is primarily left to local governments (Zoeteman, 2013). Moreover, Schoor and Scholtens (2015) have shown that municipalities are capable of adopting innovative solutions at a local level to address the challenges of global warming. Municipal governments thus have a huge potential when it comes to countering climate change. The role of cities is also becoming increasingly important due to the growing share of the population that moves toward urban areas. The UN report 2018 Revision of World Urbanization
Prospects notes that 68 per cent of the world population is expected to live in cities in 2050,
compared to 55 per cent in 2018 (UN, 2018). Both their high consumption of energy and their ever-increasing population makes that cities are key players in combatting the rising temperatures. The crucial role that cities can play in achieving the goals set by the Paris Agreement justifies this thesis’s focus on municipalities.
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Municipal governments are the political representation of the preferences of its citizens. Citizens vote for their preferred parties in local elections because they believe that these parties will implement policies that are closely tied to their desired policy ideas. Based on partisan theory, which states that a particular composition of government results in a corresponding policy outcome, this thesis foresees that green parties contribute to creating an enabling environment where sustainable energy initiatives are more easily started. Green parties are those parties that adhere to an ideology of ecologism and environmentalism (Wall, 2010). Introducing renewable energy sources can contribute to the reduction of hazardous emissions generated from energy production at the municipal level (Hughes, 2017) and thus help realise the goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the indicators of green parties is their support for the implementation of such policies to achieve sustainable energy generation.
According to Gerber and Hopkins (2011), partisanship within the city council can lead municipalities to adopt significantly different policies. However, it is crucial to assess whether green parties live up to the expectations of their electorate and contribute to the creation of an enabling environment where sustainable energy initiatives can emerge. If green parties cannot achieve the policies preferred by their voters, this might have severe consequences for voting behaviour of their voters in the next elections. Foreshadowing the results, a hypothetical finding that indicates that a vote for a green political party may not necessarily lead to a greater number of sustainable initiatives, might cause citizens to adjust their voting preferences. Therefore, the findings of this research may affect the choices that citizens will make during the next municipal elections in 2022. Thus, the importance and originality of this study are that it explores the preferences of citizens by examining the outcome of local policy-making.
This thesis has an exploratory and explanatory character. From the literature, it appears that certain conditions are important determinants in partisan politics (Gerber, 2013). However, little is known regarding the precise conditions or which combination of conditions are important partisan determinants. To study the impact that partisanship has on the number of sustainable energy initiatives at municipal level, this thesis analyses the political composition of twelve municipalities in the Netherlands. Based on partisan theory (more thoroughly discussed in chapter 2), this thesis assumes that members of the municipal government prefer policies that are related to the ideology of their party. Schmidt (1996) states that governments are capable of implementing the policies that were chosen by the incumbent parties (p. 156). For instance, members of conservative parties are more likely to implement conservative policies.
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This thesis empirically analyses whether this partisan explanation accounts for other explanations than the traditional political dichotomy as well. It studies whether parties that pursue a green agenda are more likely to implement policies that allow for the collective organisation of sustainable energy initiatives. Municipal governments that are composed of a great number of members of political parties that identify as green are expected to form a facilitating government, which results in a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives. The electoral programs of these parties form the basis for a distinction between green and non-green parties. The operationalisation for distinguishing between non-green and non-non-green parties is elaborated upon in the third chapter. Based on this distinction, this thesis will identify the number of green political party seats in the city councils and coalitions of said municipalities.
The choice to use the city council as primary unit of observation—and not the college of aldermen—is based on feasibility. Comparing different city councils provides information that is more meaningful since the share of party seats can be measured directly. Additionally, the specific responsibilities and portfolios of aldermen can differ from one city to the next—a fact that poses significant challenges for cross-municipal comparison (Gerber & Hopkins, 2011). A second possible focus was the composition of coalitions. However, an analysis of the coalition is not sufficient to capture the enabling environment within a municipality. A sole focus on the coalition would not do justice to those cities where green parties received sufficient votes but— for various reasons—did not end up in the coalition. Moreover, green parties in the coalition of a municipality may prioritise different policies (e.g. more social-economical left), while a strong green party in the opposition can successfully influence policy outcome in an environmental manner (Boogers, Lucardie, & Voerman, 2007). Therefore, the partisan effect in the council and the coalition are tested in different hypotheses. The partisan effect in the council is theorised in the first hypothesis, while the coalition is part of the second hypothesis.
As mentioned above, a different way of energy production is required to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement of a maximal warming of well below the 2 degrees Celsius. Sustainable energy initiatives such as the collective purchase of solar panels help in moving toward these ambitions. Regarding sustainable energy initiatives, this thesis follows the conceptualisation proposed by HIER opgewekt, a Dutch knowledge network specialised in the local generation of sustainable energy. Primarily, this conceptualisation is concerned with citizen initiatives, i.e. groups of citizens who are organised collectively to collaborate on energy generation, saving, supplying, purchasing or any other energy-related activity (HIER opgewekt,
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2018). For the sake of clarity, the monitor is limited to initiatives with legal status. Such initiatives are usually associations, but some cooperatives and foundations are included in the monitor as well. These initiatives have the potential to play a crucial role in achieving the ambitious climate goals set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, this thesis aims to investigate whether a correlation exists between such initiatives and the composition of municipal governments. This thesis will analyse twelve municipalities in the Netherlands to assess the partisan influence on municipal level on the presence of sustainable energy initiatives. Hence, the main research question of this thesis is the following:
To what extent can green partisanship explain the number of sustainable energy initiatives within Dutch municipalities?
To assess which parties can be considered green, the electoral programs of all parties within the city council of these twelve municipalities are analysed on four dimensions. Next, the relative share of green party seats within the city council is compared to a dataset provided by
HIER opgewekt, a Dutch knowledge network that monitors sustainable energy initiatives. Then,
this thesis assesses the partisan influence of the council, the coalition, and the mayor in the municipality on the number of initiatives. Finally, the alternative hypothesis estimates the effect of population size on the number of sustainable energy initiatives. Among the twelve municipalities are four large, four medium, and four small municipalities. Analysing three different categories of municipalities allows estimating whether the size of the population affects the number of initiatives (Zoeteman, Mommaas, & Dagevos, 2015).
Social relevance
It is both evident and inevitable that the Paris Agreement will have an impact on the day-to-day lives of citizens. To meet the standards set by the Paris Agreement and to stay well below the 2 degrees Celsius, a more considerate way of energy production is necessary. Sustainable energy initiatives can play an important role in addressing the issue of the high consumption of energy in cities (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2005). Citizens must find themselves in an enabling environment to organise such initiatives collectively. In turn, the right political climate in the local government can help in establishing such an environment. The political climate is determined by citizens, who vote for their preferred parties in local elections. It is therefore
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vital to assess whether green parties live up to the expectations of their electorate and contribute to the creation of an enabling environment for sustainable energy initiatives.
Hence, it is crucial to understand the dynamics between citizens and their policy preferences, as it may shine light on whether and to what extent voting behaviour impacts policy outcomes. Citizens may adjust their voting behaviour when the findings of this research indicate that a vote for a green party does not necessarily lead to an enabling environment in which a greater number of sustainable energy projects are initiated. Therefore, the findings of this research may affect the choices that citizens make when voting during the upcoming municipal elections in 2022. Additionally, the findings can draw out a pattern of voting behaviour for green parties at the municipal level—which is valuable to these parties as they may adjust their focus and aim to implement specific policies.
Academic relevance
This exploratory and explanatory thesis is part of a larger body of research on public policy implementation. According to Saetren (2014), contemporary implementation research has matured and entered a third generation paradigm. In his extensive qualitative analysis of implementation research, Saetren differentiates between three distinctive generations of research. During the first generation, implementation research existed almost exclusively of single-case studies based on qualitative data (p. 89). The second generation, from 1980 onwards, consists of comparative research that is more empirical and theoretically oriented. The third generation of implementation research, Saetren argues, is characterised by the increased use of quantitative data (p. 91). Most importantly, implementation research thus far had primarily focused on inductive theory generating, and only recently studies have become more concerned with deductive theory testing. This thesis aims to contribute to the growing body of theory-testing studies in the field of public policy implementation research, by making use of a multitude of cases. By analysing the effect of municipal partisanship on policy outcomes, this thesis engages in partial theory testing—a much-needed effort according to Saetren (2014). He concludes that a considerable amount of the literature has a descriptive nature and lacks empirical testing (p. 94). It is the goal of this thesis to address this gap in the literature. While it is hard to argue that one generation is more important than the other, it is essential to complement each other to have a more accurate representation of the answer to the research question.
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The remainder of this thesis proceeds as follows: The next chapter discusses the theoretical framework and provides an overview of the existing literature. In chapter 3, attention is directed to the research design and methodology of this thesis. The fourth chapter presents and analyses the results of this study. The fifth and final chapter will elaborate on the conclusions, limitations, and recommendations for future research that follow this research.
2. Theoretical framework
This chapter provides an overview of the existing scholarship in the subfields of implementation research and partisan theory. Next, it introduces three hypotheses based on contemporary literature, connecting the research question to the existing academic theories. Additionally, it presents two alternative hypotheses.
Implementation research
As mentioned above, it is the goal of this thesis to contribute to the growing body of theory-testing studies in the field of public policy implementation research. The importance of the field is highlighted by Winter (2012), who argues that “implementation research has made important
contributions to public administration and public policy in adding a public policy perspective to public administration” (p. 275). Implementation research has a strong focus on how policies are
transformed during the execution process until the point of delivery - and even after that moment in changing the behaviour of citizens (Winter, 2012). The scholarly interest in implementation research has fluctuated ever since its introduction in the 1970s (O'Toole, 2000). However, articles studying the implementation of public policy remain a substantial part of the literature in the field of public administration, as Saetren (2005) effectively showed in his extensive bibliometric study on academic journals.
In a later work, Saetren (2014) distinguishes three generations of implementation research. The contemporary third generation of implementation research is known for its quantitative orientation and large-N studies, and indicates that the field has moved from qualitative case-study research toward a more quantitative approach. Winter (2012) offers various ways in which the field can move further ahead. These include partial theory testing, applying comparative research designs, and focusing on policy outcomes as dependent variables in implementation research rather than goal achievement (p. 265). This thesis
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addresses the following proposals: Partisan theory is partially tested through a comparative analysis of the political composition in municipalities and the results are compared to policy outcomes in the form of sustainable energy initiatives. Hence, the exploratory and explanatory character of this thesis: It engages in partial theory testing but also analyses specific policy outcomes that have not been covered in the literature.
Although the field of implementation research has matured (O'Toole, 2000), much remains to be done with regard to theory testing (Saetren, 2014). This work addresses this lacuna in the literature. However, it does not engage in holistic theory testing but instead aims to provide direction for further theoretical development. In combination with partisan theory, it analyses the relationship between the composition of local government and the outcomes of the policy it implements. In this way, it directs the attention of future implementation research. Before moving to the hypotheses that are to be tested in this thesis, the next section will elaborate on partisan theory.
Partisan theory
Political parties are expected to influence public policy. This assumption is one of the basic premises of democratic societies. Citizens vote because they feel that a particular composition of government will prioritise their preferred policies. According to Schmidt (1996), the party composition of a government is a significant determinant of variation in policy choices and policy outcomes. Therefore, changes in the composition of these governments are associated with changes in the choices and outcomes of policies (pp. 155-6). In his extensive work, Schmidt (1996) effectively shows that the policy orientation of political parties does matter in public policy outcomes: A change in policy orientation within the national government results in an observable different policy outcome. However, his analysis of 23 constitutional democracies is limited to the traditional dichotomies of left vs right, and liberal vs conservative politics. This thesis tests whether Schmidt’s findings also hold with ideational orientations, such as green politics. Incorporating these findings into the hypotheses allows for empirically assessing whether partisan theory applies to green political orientations as well.
Since partisan theory appears to hold on the national level of governance, it is natural to ask whether it lasts at the local level as well (Portney & Berry, 2010; Gerber, 2013). On lower levels of government, the theory of partisan influence on public policy has been debated severely. There is little consensus about the political dynamics in the local climate government
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processes, and implications of the resulting policy outcomes (Hughes, 2017). Critics of partisan theory have argued that lower levels of government are more likely to be limited by various constraints. For instance, urban theorists Gerber and Hopkins (2011) analysed whether these constraints can mute the impact of partisanship on policy outcomes. They found that local governments are limited in their ability to respond to changing citizen preferences due to fiscal and legal constraints (Gerber & Hopkins, 2011). Based on the stability in spending and revenue patterns of cities in the United States (US), they argue that the “structural and political
constraints imposed on local governments largely nullify their ability to enact their preferred policies or respond to the preferences of partisan majorities in the local electorate” (p. 337). It
is important to note here that Gerber and Hopkins focus on the influence of mayors in a two-party system. Their scope might have consequences for the applicability of their findings on this thesis since the multitude of actors in Dutch municipalities can either reinforce or weaken the partisan influence of mayors.
Other scholars have empirically assessed the legal constraints described by the urban theorists Gerber and Hopkins (Bondarouk & Liefferink, 2017; Gollata & Newig, 2017). Boundarouk and Liefferink (2017) found differences in municipal compliance to European Union (EU) directives, even though the municipalities they studied all fall under a single legal structure. Likewise, Gollata and Newig (2017) showed that German federal states facing the same legal constraints differ in the extent to which they implement EU air quality directives. Together, this implies that the same legal system may result in constraints that vary from one municipality to the next. As such, the influence of legal constraints alone is not sufficient to nullify the impact of partisanship within local governments. From a theoretical perspective, a different variable, e.g. partisanship, may therefore be the driving force of the difference in the number of sustainable energy initiatives between municipalities.
Hence, there are two dominant theoretical views that make very different and even conflicting predictions about the influence of partisanship on public policy-making. Proponents of partisan theory predict that party affiliation will affect policy, while advocates of urban theory expect that local constraints largely nullify the effect of partisanship. It is thus evident that the effect of partisanship on public policy remains debated. It is the aim of this thesis to assess which of the above-discussed theoretical views best explains the differences in the number of sustainable energy initiatives. While this review of the literature is brief and far from exhaustive, it nonetheless well illustrates the two main contradicting theoretical views and their
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implications on this research’s hypotheses. Recognising these theoretical limitations, this thesis formulates three hypotheses. The following section will demonstrate these explanatory and exploratory hypotheses, which will be tested in the fourth chapter with regard to the effect that municipal partisanship has on policy outcomes.
Hypotheses
Based on the theoretical framework provided above, this section presents the three hypotheses of this thesis. The year 2014 is applied to all hypotheses. To assess the political composition in municipalities, the first hypothesis analyses the city council. Schmidt (1996) argues that governments are able to implement policies that are preferred by incumbent parties. However, his study was limited to traditional policy orientations such as the left vs right dichotomy. The first hypothesis tests if Schmidt’s partisan theory holds against other than the traditional political orientations as well. Following Schmidt’s logic, this thesis presumes that green parties are capable of pursuing their preferred policies just like traditional parties. More specifically, this thesis presumes that green parties have unique policy preferences and that they are capable of effectively feeding these into the policy formulation process when they are in office. In turn, these green policy preferences create an enabling environment in which citizens are able to organise themselves collectively and engage in sustainable energy generation. As such, municipalities with a larger share of green parties in the city council are expected to have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives. Thus, the first hypothesis of this thesis is:
H₁: Municipalities with a larger share of green party seats in the
council have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives.
The second hypothesis presumes a relationship between the coalition of the municipality and the number of sustainable energy initiatives. More precisely, it examines whether the elected green council members are part of the coalition, or remain in the opposition. Coalition theorists assume that politicians are motivated to affect policy (Budge & Laver, 1992), which they are best capable of when they are part of the coalition. In combination with the abovementioned influence of partisanship illustrated by Schmidt (1996), this implies that politicians of green parties seek office to be able to put forward their preferred policies. Following this logic, this
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hypothesis predicts that the number of sustainable energy initiatives will be greater in municipalities where green political parties have a larger share of the coalition. Consequently, the second hypothesis reads:
H₂: Municipalities with a larger share of green party seats in the
coalition have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives.
The third hypothesis analyses the role of the mayor. According to Dutch law, the monarch appoints mayors. In practice, however, members of the city council of the municipality in question nominate a candidate who is appointed after approval of the cabinet. Together with the aldermen, the mayor forms the daily administration of a municipality. It is important to distinguish here that a mayor chairs the college of aldermen but is not part of the council— which distinguishes this hypothesis from the first. Since the municipal elections of 2014 form the basis of this thesis, the data of the same year is utilised for the role of the mayor.
The dominant schools of thought discussed above make two distinct predictions regarding the mayoral influence on policy. Whereas partisan theorists dictate that the mayoral political orientation affects policy outcomes, urban theorists argue that fiscal and legal constraints can overrule the partisan influence of mayors. Gerber and Hopkins (2011) have investigated whether mayoral political preferences are likely to shape policy outcomes. They argue that mayoral partisanship is an important determinant in policy areas where municipal decision-makers share less authority with regional or national authorities and thus have a considerable amount of discretionary power. For instance, this includes policy areas such as waste collection. On the other hand, Gerber and Hopkins (2011) state that mayoral partisanship is less of an influence in policy areas where regional and national actors exert more authority, such as health services. In the Netherlands, the national government exerts limited authority in the policy area of energy generation: Municipalities are free to implement policies as long as they contribute to achieving the targets that are currently being legislated in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Municipalities thus have sufficient discretionary room to implement their preferred energy policies. Considering this, the third hypothesis of this thesis is the following:
H₃: Municipalities led by a mayor affiliated with a green political
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The exploratory character of this thesis allows examining other causal factors. Therefore, the alternative hypotheses depart from partisan explanations and analyse the population size of the municipality as the main determinant for differences in the number of sustainable energy initiatives. The first alternative hypothesis presumes a relationship between the size of the municipal population and the number of sustainable energy initiatives. It is generally thought that larger cities with greater economic development lead to improved social conditions for their citizens (Duranton, 2014). These social conditions include—among other factors—a sustainable living environment. The line of thought here is that citizen of economically striving cities value more than just basic needs and emphasise healthy and sustainable living conditions too. Likewise, Gerber (2013) found that larger municipalities are more likely to adopt climate policies compared to smaller cities. Therefore, the first alternative hypothesis expects that the greatest number of sustainable energy initiatives can be found in the largest municipalities.
However, Zoeteman, Mommaas, and Dagevos (2015) found that sustainability scores tend to diminish as the size of the municipality increases. They argue that medium-sized municipalities near large cities are generally more sustainable since they are able to exploit the advantages of being in the proximity to a large municipality while avoiding the corresponding disadvantages (p. 64). On the other extreme, small municipalities lack the resources—both human and financial capital—to create an enabling environment where sustainable initiatives can easily emerge (p. 65). Therefore, the second alternative hypothesis presumes that medium-sized municipalities have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives only when they are located in the proximity of a larger municipality. Medium municipalities have a population size between 100.000 and 250.000 citizens, as further explained in the next chapter. Accordingly, the two alternative hypotheses read as follows:
H₄a: Large municipalities have a greater number of sustainable
energy initiatives, compared to small and medium-sized municipalities.
H₄b: Medium-sized municipalities in the proximity of a larger
municipality have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives.
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3. Methods
The next chapter provides the necessary methodology to test the formulated hypotheses that are presented above. It starts by describing the case selection strategy, followed by elaborating on the method of data collection and data analysis. The chapter concludes with a reflection on the validity and reliability of the findings.
Case selection
This thesis utilises a most different systems design (MDSD) in the selection of cases. According to Przeworski and Teune (1970), this design “seeks maximal heterogeneity in the sample of
systems, [and] is based on a belief that in spite of intersystemic differentiation, the populations will differ with regard to only a limited number of variables or relationships” (p. 39). The idea is
that all factors across the range of observations that are not linked to an identical outcome are eliminated by contrasting the cases (Berg-Schlosser & Meur, 2009). Hence, to isolate the partisan effect, the selected cases must differ on several characteristics. First, all possible cases are divided into categories based on their population. As discussed in the previous chapter, the alternative hypotheses consider the size of the municipality. Selecting different sizes allows controlling for the effect of population and isolates the partisan effect. Therefore, it is important to select municipalities that differ in population size.
Since Dutch national law does not provide a distinction between large, medium, and small cities, this thesis follows the definition used by the European Commission (EC). Using this definition allows for potential future comparative analysis with other EU member states. Large municipalities have over 250.000 citizens, while medium-sized municipalities have a population between 100.000 and 250.000 residents. Small municipalities are those that have between 50.000 and 100.000 citizens (European Commission, 2012). Even smaller municipalities are considered villages by the EC and therefore do not fall under the scope of this thesis. In total, this thesis examines twelve municipalities. Since only four Dutch municipalities have over 250.000 citizens—Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht—these four make up the category of large municipalities. There are 27 medium-sized and 54 small municipalities in the Netherlands (CBS, 2019), from which four of both categories are selected for further analysis.
This categorisation of municipalities allows for drawing a sample that results in meaningful findings. Since this thesis utilises MDSD, it is important to have sufficient variation
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in the dependent variable of the selected cases (Przeworski & Teune, 1970). The case selection for this thesis is a ternary process. First, to control for ideological orientation, the preceding national elections are taken into account. Controlling for the ideological orientation of municipalities is necessary to ensure that the case selection not solely exists of, for instance, right-wing parties. Having sufficient variation on the political orientation allows for the isolation of partisan influence. Half of the medium and small municipalities elected a left-wing party during the previous national elections, while the other half is right-oriented. Note that the category of large municipalities consists of the largest four cities regardless of their political orientation during the preceding national elections, since these are the only Dutch municipalities with more than 250.000 citizens.
Second, the selection strategy considers the score on the Municipal Sustainability Index (hereinafter: GDI, the Dutch abbreviation for Gemeentelijke Duurzaamheidsindex) of the municipality. The GDI is an index provided by research centre Drechtsteden, which ranks municipalities by scoring them on 27 different sustainability criteria (Drechtsteden, 2018). A variation in this score within the selected cases is desirable. For instance, a municipality may have a long history of sustainable development and therefore a greater number of initiatives, while partisan politics may not necessarily have caused this. This strategy enables to isolate the partisan influence and assess whether a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives is the result of partisan politics. Therefore, half of the selected cases scores above the average of the Netherlands, while the other half of the selection has a ranking below average. The average of all Dutch municipalities is a GDI-score of 5.6, with the highest score being 6.7 (Zeewolde) and the lowest being 4.6 (Heerlen).
Third, the case selection strategy controls for the financial conditions of the municipalities. Municipal governments that face severe financial constraints may not be able to make the policy choices they would make under the ideal conditions laid down by Gerber and Hopkins (2011). In such a situation, sustainable measures are at risk of being economised, and their implementation may be delayed or withdrawn altogether. Therefore, the sample consists solely of financially stable municipalities. Table 1 (following page) summarises the case selection strategy. Considering these three control variables, the sample of medium-sized municipalities consists of Groningen, Amersfoort, Dordrecht, and Venlo. The sample of small municipalities consists of Hengelo, Lelystad, Katwijk, and Assen.
14 Municipality Size Political orientation GDI-score
Amsterdam Large Left (PvdA) 5.7
Rotterdam Large Left (PvdA) 4.9
The Hague Large Left (PvdA) 5.2
Utrecht Large Left (PvdA) 5.7
Groningen Medium Left (PvdA) 5.3
Amersfoort Medium Right (VVD) 5.7
Dordrecht Medium Left (PvdA) 5.7
Venlo Medium Right (VVD) 5.4
Hengelo Small Left (PvdA) 5.5
Lelystad Small Right (VVD) 5.2
Assen Small Left (PvdA) 5.7
Katwijk Small Right (VVD) 6.1
Table 1. Case selection strategy.
Data collection
This thesis utilises two secondary statistical datasets. Secondary data analysis is the statistical analysis of quantitative data that was previously collected (Neuman, 2014). This section discusses the previously collected data that this thesis combines with its analysis of electoral programs. First, the Kiesraad, the Dutch advisory body to the national government and is the responsible organisation for the elections, provides the data regarding the municipal election results and the mayoral party affiliation (Kiesraad, 2019). All data relating to the election results, the composition of the council and the coalition, and the party affiliation of mayors derives from the Kiesraad.
Second, the data concerning the number of sustainable energy initiatives derives from
HIER opgewekt, a Dutch knowledge network specialised in the local generation of sustainable
energy. Every year, HIER opgewekt publishes a local energy monitor that includes, among other facts, the number of sustainable energy initiatives. They collect their data annually through a questionnaire among 200 large energy associations, combined with desk research of public sources such as subsidy registries (HIER opgewekt, 2018). The most recent version of their dataset (2018) is used for this research. HIER opgewekt provides its dataset on the provincial level, which will be sorted manually to obtain the data on the required municipal level.
Finally, it is key to note that the sheer population size of a municipality is likely to influence the absolute number of sustainable energy initiatives: The number of initiatives is
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likely to be higher in Amsterdam (863.202 citizens) compared to Lelystad (77.872 citizens).1
Therefore, this thesis utilises the relative number of initiatives per 10.000 citizens. Thus far, this chapter has presented the case selection strategy of this thesis and discussed the origin of the collected data. The section below describes the independent and dependent variable before it moves on to discuss the method of analysis and the validity of the inferences made.
Independent variable
The municipal political composition is the independent variable of this thesis. According to Gerber and Hopkins (2011), partisanship within the local government can cause cities to adopt significantly different policies. In turn, this can result in creating enabling environments for sustainable energy initiatives. However, the creation of such initiatives takes time. Therefore, this thesis assumes that the results of the most recent elections are of limited influence on such initiatives. Hence, the results of the most recent election, those of 2018, are not utilised. Instead, the results of the municipal elections of 2014 form the basis of this research.
As mentioned above, the councils of four large, four medium, and four small cities are analysed. The size of a city council (the variable of interest of the first hypothesis) depends on the number of citizens of the municipality. For instance, the four large municipalities all have over 200.000 citizens, which corresponds to 45 council members (Kiesraad, 2019). Smaller municipalities have fewer council members. To find results that have meaningful comparative value, this thesis does not examine the absolute number of party seats but looks at the percentage of green seats instead. The next section explains the dependent variable of this research—the results that vary depending on the variation in the independent variable.
Dependent variable
The dependent variable of this research is the number of sustainable energy initiatives. The dataset provided by HIER opgewekt is used for this variable and hence, their operationalisation is followed. Therefore, this thesis regards sustainable energy initiatives as citizen collectives that are organised to collaborate on energy generation, saving, supplying, purchasing or any other energy-related activity (HIER opgewekt, 2018). Only initiatives with legal status, such as associations, cooperatives, or foundations, fall under the scope of this definition.
16 Data analysis
This comparative case study uses both qualitative content analysis and statistical data analysis to make inferences about the partisan effect of municipal political composition on the number of sustainable energy initiatives. Neuman (2014) describes content analysis as a research technique for examining the content contained in written documents, such as electoral programs. Through content analysis, this thesis studies the electoral programs of all parties in the city council of the twelve selected municipalities to distinguish between green and non-green parties. The content of the electoral programs thus forms the basis of the distinction. The programs are examined on four dimensions and several corresponding indicators, which are based on the literature.
The first dimension is derived from work of Visschedijk and de Vries (2014) and is used to examine the role of the residents of the municipality. Many electoral programs extensively address the role of citizens. Green parties seek the active involvement of citizens in decision-making processes to facilitate close collaboration. In this way, citizens are stimulated to take on active roles, which in turn results in a municipality where sustainable energy projects can be initiated more easily. Like Visschedijk and de Vries (2014), Portney and Berry (2010) found that cities with more civil participation are more likely to achieve greater sustainability. On the contrary, non-green parties seek less direct political involvement for citizens but rather adhere to bureaucracies to deal with sustainability challenges.
Boogers, Lucardie, and Voerman (2007) suggest the second and third dimension. The second dimension relates to the role of the government, which can be either active or passive. The former refers to government role with intervening policies such as subsidies, whereas the latter refers to a small and technocratic government that seeks to intervene less in the lives of its citizens. An active government is capable of steering its society by instating subsidies or focusing on behavioural change of citizens, e.g. urging carpooling or resource conservation. In such a role, governments can create an enabling environment where citizen initiatives are encouraged and supported. Therefore, green parties pursue such an active government role. This thesis examines which parties pursue an active government to explain the differences in the number of sustainable initiatives from a partisan perspective. The pursuit of such an active role results in fulfilment of this dimension. Parties that pursue a passive government role do not fulfil this dimension.
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The third dimension covers the overall level of sustainability that parties envision in their program. According to Boogers, Lucardie, and Voerman (2007), electoral programs can be either green-focused or growth-focused (p. 15). For instance, progressive and green-focused political parties aim for a climate-neutral municipality and support policies such as stricter emission regulations or the installation of environmental zones within the municipality. Other examples of sustainable policies are improving waste management, investing in public transport, and increasing green space in the living environment. Opposite to parties with green-focused programs are growth-green-focused parties. Such parties are primarily concerned with economic values, which is reflected through car-friendly policies, strong entrepreneurial support, or incentives to attract multinational cooperatives (Boogers, Lucardie, & Voerman, 2007). Parties that score in this dimension are usually inclined to contribute to the enabling environment that is deemed necessary for the creation of sustainable energy initiatives.
The fourth and last dimension derives from Burchell (2002) and is narrower in scope than the third dimension, as it focuses on a specific element of sustainability: The generation of energy. Burchell (2002) states that green parties favour the usage of renewable energy sources and oppose nuclear power for the generation of energy. Municipal governments with significant partisan influence of green parties are thus likely to put forward policies aimed at generating energy sustainably. Therefore, indicators for green parties include investing in renewable energy sources or supporting research on innovative energy solutions. On the other hand, elements in the electoral program that indicate a non-green party include, for instance, investments in nuclear energy or intentions to maintain the current levels of energy generated through fossil fuels.
All electoral programs are coded either 0 or 1 on these four dimensions. Parties receive a score of 1 when their electoral program is predominantly green on a specific dimension. On the other hand, parties receive a score of 0 when their program is predominantly non-green. When an electoral program lacks green policy ideas, it is considered non-green on that specific dimension. For instance, a party that does not mention any form of energy generation in its program whatsoever, scores 0 on the dimension of energy generation. Parties with a total score between 0 and 2 are considered non-green, and parties with a total score above 2 are regarded as green. Taken together, this approach allows for an objective analysis of electoral programs in such a way that it enables to distinguish between green and non-green parties. Table 2 (following page) summarises the four dimensions and the corresponding indicators.
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Dimension Green Non-green
Citizen role - Direct citizen involvement - Active roles for citizens - Support for citizen initiatives - Citizen collaboration with
government or private actors
- Indirect or generally little involvement of citizens - Little support for citizen
initiatives
- Adherence to market forces Government role - Active
- Increasing regulations and subsidies
- Focus on behavioural change of citizens
- Transparent communication - Substantial public investing
- Passive
- Less intervention through legislation and regulation - Small and efficient - Technocratic - Deregulation - Privatisation Sustainability - Stricter emission regulation
- Environmental zones
- Increasing green spaces in living environment
- Climate neutral municipality
- Growth-focused
- Emphasis on economic values - Job creation
- Car-friendly policies
Energy generation - Investing in renewable energy generation
- Supporting research on sustainable energy generation
- Maintaining fossil fuels as primary energy source - Investing in nuclear power
plants
Table 2. Dimensions for electoral program analysis.
Validity and reliability
The last section of this chapter how the internal validity, external validity, and the reliability of this research is ensured. Internal validity refers to the internal research design. Valid causal inferences can be made when three criteria—temporal precedence, covariation, and non-spuriousness—are satisfied (Neuman, 2014). First, to ensure temporal precedence, this thesis utilises the results of the municipal elections of 2014 and the HIER opgewekt dataset for the number of sustainable energy initiatives of 2018. As such, the partisan effect on policy outcome is isolated, and it is ensured that the energy initiatives emerge (or not) in a political environment that is the result of a specific political composition. Second, covariation indicates that the variables are associated. Based on partisan theory, this thesis tests whether a particular political composition within municipalities is associated with the number of sustainable energy initiatives. The results will indicate if such an association exists and whether causal inferences
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can be made. Third, non-spuriousness implies that there are no plausible alternative explanations. As in most social research, there is a potential for spurious bias from the observed relation between partisanship and policy outcomes. Possibly, high values for both variables are
de facto caused by an omitted variable, e.g. citizen attitude. This thesis explores whether a
correlation exists between the political composition of municipalities and the number of energy initiative. However, non-spuriousness cannot be guaranteed.
External validity is concerned with the extent to which the inferences made can be generalised to other cases (Rohlfing, 2012). The case selection strategy discussed above contributes to the external validity of this thesis as the analysed municipalities are purposely selected on several characteristics. By considering these characteristics, the current case selection consists of municipalities that are representative of all municipalities in the Netherlands. However, the results regarding some of the effects of partisanship may be specific to Dutch municipalities. Future research, for instance at EU level, might uncover additional conditions associated with similar policy outcomes.
Lastly, reliability refers to the consistency of the findings (Neuman, 2014). The data for both the independent and the dependent variable derives from secondary datasets and will yield similar results when the current study is to be repeated. However, the coding of electoral programs may be subject to inconsistencies due to its interpretive nature. Although the dimensions of coding are based on indicators derived from the literature, they do not provide clear-cut boundaries that prescribe when a program scores on a dimension and when it does not. Nevertheless, the methodology used proved appropriate for the operationalisation and it is not likely that the results will be fundamentally different in case other indicators would have been used. Hence, reliability is ensured to a high degree. This chapter has described the methodology of this thesis, allowing the next chapter to present the results and their analysis.
4. Results and Analysis
This chapter examines in detail all empirical findings from the analysis outlined above. First, it elaborates on the results of the coding of electoral programs. Second, the hypotheses are tested, and their results are discussed. A covariational table combines the results of the three main hypotheses. The chapter concludes with an assessment and analysis of the alternative hypothesis. The complete datasets used in the analysis are presented in the Appendix.
20 Electoral programs
In total, this thesis analysed 98 electoral programs. Not all electoral programs of the 2014 municipal elections could be retrieved. Those parties, whose electoral program could not be located through desk research, have been contacted extensively. This resulted in additional programs for the analysis. Venlo is the municipality with the lowest coverage with six out of eight (75 per cent) of the programs coded. Several parties indicated that at the time, they did not have a program since their politics is based on a collection of viewpoints rather than an actual electoral program (e.g. elderly party OPA). Moreover, some parties indicated that their program could not be located anymore (e.g. CDA The Hague). Lastly, one local party (Partij voor
Lelystad) ceased to exist, which made it impossible to contact them for the retrieval of their
program. Since it cannot be assumed that the missing electoral programs are green, these programs were omitted from the analysis.
In total, over 86 per cent of all electoral programs (98 out of 113) has been analysed and coded. Table 3 summarises the results of this coding, while the justification for the coding is presented in the Appendix I. One interesting finding is that green parties were elected into the council in all twelve analysed municipalities—albeit to different degrees. Utrecht and Amsterdam account for the greatest number of green parties, with respectively five and four green parties in the council. Most municipalities elected a majority of non-green parties. Nevertheless, all analysed municipalities have at least two green parties in the council.
Citizen role Government role Sustainability Energy generation Total Large municipalities Amsterdam CDA 1 1 0 0 2 D66 1 0 1 1 3 GL 1 1 1 1 4 PvdA 0 1 1 1 3 PvdD 1 1 1 1 4 SP 0 1 0 1 2 VVD 1 0 0 0 1 Rotterdam CU/SGP 1 1 0 0 2 D66 1 1 1 1 4 GL 1 0 1 1 3 Leefbaar 1 0 0 0 1 NIDA 1 0 1 0 2 PvdD 0 1 1 1 3 SP 1 1 1 1 4 VVD 0 0 0 0 0
21 The Hague CDA 0 1 0 0 1 CU/SGP 0 1 1 0 2 D66 1 0 1 1 3 GL 1 1 1 1 4 GdM 1 0 0 0 1 HSP 1 0 1 0 2 PvdA 1 0 1 1 3 PvdD 0 1 1 1 3 PVV 1 0 0 0 1 SP 1 1 1 1 4 VVD 1 0 0 0 1 Utrecht CDA 1 0 1 0 2 CU 0 1 0 1 2 D66 1 1 1 1 4 GL 0 1 1 1 3 PvdA 0 1 1 1 3 PvdD 0 1 1 1 3 SP 0 1 1 0 2 S&S 1 0 1 1 3 VVD 0 0 1 0 1 Medium municipalities Groningen CU 0 1 0 1 2 D66 1 1 1 1 4 GL 0 1 1 1 3 PvdA 0 1 0 1 2 PvdD 0 1 1 1 3 SP 0 1 0 0 1 S&S 0 1 1 1 3 VVD 1 1 0 0 2 Amersfoort A2014 1 0 1 0 2 CDA 1 0 1 0 2 CU 0 1 1 0 2 D66 1 0 1 1 3 GL 1 0 1 1 3 PvdA 0 1 1 0 2 SP 0 1 0 0 1 VVD 0 0 1 0 1 Dordrecht BvD 1 0 0 1 2 CDA 0 0 0 0 0 CU/SGP 0 1 1 0 2 D66 1 0 1 1 3 GL 0 1 1 1 3 PvdA 1 1 0 0 2 SP 0 1 0 0 1 VSP 1 1 0 0 2
22 Venlo CDA 1 0 0 1 2 D66 1 0 0 0 1 GL 1 1 1 1 4 PvdA 0 1 1 0 2 SP 1 1 1 0 3 VVD 0 0 0 0 0 Small municipalities Hengelo CDA 1 1 0 0 2 CU 1 1 1 0 3 D66 1 1 1 1 4 GL 1 1 1 0 3 Pro Hengelo 1 0 1 0 2 PvdA 1 0 1 0 2 SP 1 1 1 0 3 VVD 0 0 0 0 0 Lelystad CDA 0 0 1 1 2 CU 0 1 1 1 3 D66 1 0 1 0 2 IPL 1 0 1 0 2 Leefbaar 1 0 1 0 2 PvdA 1 0 1 1 3 SP 1 0 1 0 2 VVD 0 0 1 1 2 Assen CDA 1 1 0 0 2 CU 0 1 0 1 2 D66 0 1 1 1 3 GL 1 0 1 1 3 PvdA 0 1 1 1 3 PLOP 1 1 0 0 2 SP 1 1 0 0 2 VVD 1 0 1 0 2 Katwijk CDA 0 1 1 0 2 CU 0 1 1 0 2 D66 1 1 1 1 4 GB 0 1 1 1 3 HvK 0 0 0 1 1 KiesKatwijk 1 0 0 0 1 PvdA 0 1 1 0 2 SGP 0 0 1 0 1 VVD 0 0 0 1 1
Table 3. Coding of electoral programs.
The results indicate that there are vast differences between municipal parties. A second unexpected finding is that local parties tend to differ both from their counterparts on the national level and from their sister parties in other municipalities with regard to the specific implementation of policies. For instance, the electoral program of SP Rotterdam scores on all
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four dimensions, while SP Groningen, SP Dordrecht, and SP Amersfoort only score on a single dimension. Likewise, while local factions of D66 generally tend to score on three or four dimensions, D66 Venlo is significantly less green scoring merely on a single dimension. These differences emphasise the thoroughness of the method of analysis of this thesis. Limiting the analysis to a mere distinction on party ideology, as proposed by Wall (2010), would have resulted in less grounded findings.
Dependent variable
In addition to the empirical analysis of electoral programs, this thesis employs a dataset on sustainable energy initiatives derived from HIER opgewekt (2018). Table 4 presents a summary of this data, while the complete dataset is presented in Appendix II. As indicated in the previous chapter, the sheer municipal population size is likely to influence the absolute number of initiatives. Therefore, this thesis utilises the relative number of initiatives per 10.000 citizens. As shown in Table 4, the absolute number of sustainable energy initiatives is greatest in Amsterdam, although both Groningen and Assen have a greater number of initiatives per capita. According to the dataset of HIER opgewekt, there are no registered energy initiatives in Lelystad and Katwijk. On average the analysed municipalities have 0,527 energy initiatives for every
Initiatives Population Number of initiatives per 10.000 citizens Large municipalities Amsterdam 86 863.202 0,996 Rotterdam 16 644.527 0,248 The Hague 31 537.988 0,576 Utrecht 18 352.795 0,510 Medium municipalities Groningen 29 231.354 1,253 Amersfoort 13 156.294 0,832 Dordrecht 4 118.667 0,337 Venlo 3 101.578 0,295 Small municipalities Hengelo 2 80.660 0,248 Lelystad 0 77.872 0 Assen 7 67.970 1,030 Katwijk 0 65.312 0
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10.000 citizens. Thus far, this chapter has presented some initial findings. The next section will test the hypotheses discussed in the second chapter based on the results of the analysis.
H₁: Council
As discussed in the theoretical framework, the first hypothesis is based on a study by Schmidt (1996). Schmidt points out that governments are able to implement policies preferred by the incumbent parties (1996, pp. 155-6). Following this line of logic, this thesis estimates that green parties are capable of pursuing their preferred policies when part of the city council. The corresponding hypothesis was:
H₁: Municipalities with a larger share of green party seats in the
council have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives.
To test this hypothesis, the share of green party seats in the city council must be compared to the number of sustainable energy initiatives. This hypothesis thus expects that municipalities where green parties have a large share of seats in the city council also have a great number of sustainable energy initiatives. Correspondingly, municipalities with a low share of green party seats will have a small number of initiatives. Graph 1 (following page) combines the share of green party seats in the council and the number of sustainable energy initiatives for all twelve municipalities.
The graph shows that the findings of this thesis are only partially consistent with earlier political science literature. At the national level, partisanship is an important determinant in both political behaviour and policy outcomes (Gerber, 2013). At the local level, however, the partisan influence appears to be less strong. It can be seen from the data in Graph 1 that the expectation of the first hypothesis holds true for seven out of twelve (58 per cent) analysed municipalities. For instance, Amsterdam has—with 69 per cent—a large share of green party seats in the city council and has a relatively great number of projects per capita. On the other hand, the cities of Dordrecht, Venlo, Lelystad, and Katwijk have a small share of green seats in the city council and small numbers of sustainable energy projects. The Hague and Amersfoort also have a number of initiatives that corresponds with the share of green party seats. Thus, the presumed partisan influence appears to affect the number of energy initiatives in these municipalities positively. However, in five out of twelve municipalities, the correlation is weaker
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Graph 1. Share of green council seats and number of initiatives per capita.
than expected by the literature. For instance, Groningen and Assen have relatively great numbers of initiatives per capita but only a limited number of green party seats in the council. In contrast, in the municipalities of Rotterdam, Utrecht, and Hengelo, green parties have a relatively large share of the available seats, but sustainable energy initiatives are limited here. The presumed partisan effect appears to be non-existent in these municipalities.
These findings are only partially in line with expectations based on partisan theory. However, Gerber and Hopkins (2011) argue for some conditions that either weaken or reinforce partisan influence on policies. They argue that the partisan effect is nullified in policy areas where higher levels of government exert authority. Although the national and regional governments exert limited authority, and municipalities in the Netherlands thus have relatively great discretionary power in the policy area of sustainable energy generation, these conditions might be an explanation for the inconsistency in findings. Regardless, the differences in policy outcomes are interesting, and the question arises how some green parties are able to create an enabling environment where sustainable energy initiatives strive, where other green parties are not. Greater efforts are needed to uncover the dynamics in city councils where green parties successfully achieve green policy outcomes. Such research has significant implications for theoretical insights into the effects of partisanship on local policy processes and outcomes. Additionally, the results of this research will be beneficial to those green parties that are
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% N u mb er o f in iti ati ve s Per ce n tag e co u n ci l s eats
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hitherto unable to realise the same policy outcomes as their counterparts in other municipalities. The next section takes a look at the second hypothesis.
H₂: Coalition
The second hypothesis is narrower in scope than the first one and zooms in on the composition of the coalition. Coalition theorists argue that politicians are better capable of affecting policy outcomes when they are part of the coalition (Budge & Laver, 1992). Hence, a larger share of green party seats in the coalition is likely to result in a greater number of energy initiatives. Correspondingly, the second hypothesis was constructed as follows:
H₂: Municipalities with a larger share of green party seats in the
coalition have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives.
Testing this hypothesis requires a comparison between the share of green parties in the coalition and the number of sustainable energy initiatives. Green parties were part of the city council in most of the analysed municipalities. Utrecht stands out with over 70 per cent of the coalition in the hands of green parties. However, in Dordrecht, Venlo, and Katwijk the coalition consist solely of non-green parties. The hypothesis presumes that the number of initiatives will be low in these municipalities. Graph 2 (following page) combines the share of green party seats in the council and the number of sustainable energy initiatives for all twelve municipalities.
As indicated in Graph 2, the expected correlation occurs in seven out of twelve municipalities (58 per cent). For instance, the municipalities of Amsterdam, Groningen, and Assen all have a high share of green party seats in the coalition and a great number of sustainable energy initiatives per capita. Likewise, the cities of Dordrecht, Venlo, and Katwijk solely have non-green parties in the coalition and have few to no sustainable energy initiatives. The hypothesis also appears to hold for Amersfoort—a municipality with a reasonably great number of initiatives and close to 40 per cent green party seats in the coalition. The correlation is weaker in the remaining municipalities. Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht, Hengelo, and Lelystad all have less sustainable energy initiatives than would be expected based on the share of green party seats in the coalitions.
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Graph 2. Share of green coalition seats and number of initiatives per capita.
Thus, the findings are partially in line with the arguments of Budge and Laver (1992), who state that political actors in a coalition are more likely to be able to adopt policies that are significantly close to their most preferred policies. In the cities of Amsterdam, Groningen, Assen, and (to a lesser extent) Amersfoort, green parties have been able to feed their preferences into the policy formulation process, which resulted in a policy outcome with a corresponding number of sustainable energy initiatives. Katwijk also has a number of initiatives that corresponds with the share of green party seats in the coalition, both being non-existent. However, the green parties in Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht, Hengelo, and Lelystad have not been able to live up to the expectations proposed by Budge and Laver (1992).
The results in Graph 2 indicate that the correlation appears to be unidirectional and not linear. Thus, a coalition that solely consists of non-green parties is likely to indicate a small number of sustainable energy initiatives. However, a large share of green party seats does not necessarily indicate a great number of initiatives. This means that the hypothesis only partially holds. Possibly, green parties in these municipalities prioritise policies that do not contribute to creating an enabling environment where sustainable energy initiatives can easily emerge. The findings indicate that future research should direct attention to uncovering the mechanisms that allow some green coalitions to achieve green policy outcomes while others cannot. The following section discusses the last hypothesis, before moving to the alternative hypotheses.
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% N u mb er o f in iti ati ve s P erc en ta ge c o alitio n seats
28 H₃: Mayoral partisanship
The third hypothesis estimates the influence of mayoral partisanship on policy outcomes in municipalities. Gerber and Hopkins (2011) found that the effect of mayor’s partisanship is stronger in policy areas where local decision-makers have much discretionary power and less strong in those policy areas where upper-level authorities exert more authority. In the Netherlands, municipal decision-makers have relatively great discretionary room in the policy area of sustainable energy generation, as national and regional governments exert only limited authority in setting targets. Therefore, the corresponding hypothesis was:
H₃: Municipalities led by a mayor affiliated with a green political
party have a greater number of sustainable energy initiatives.
To test this hypothesis, the mayoral party affiliation must be compared with the number of sustainable energy initiatives. Table 5 presents the mayors of all analysed municipalities and their party affiliation. In total, only three mayors affiliate with a party that is considered green
Mayor Party affiliation Score Large municipalities
Amsterdam Eberhard van der Laan PvdA Green
Rotterdam Ahmed Aboutaleb PvdA Non-green
The Hague Jozias van Aartsen VVD Non-green
Utrecht Jan van Zanen VVD Non-green
Medium municipalities
Groningen Ruud Vreeman PvdA Non-green
Amersfoort Lucas Bolsius CDA Non-green
Dordrecht Arno Brok VVD Non-green
Venlo Antoin Scholten VVD Non-green
Small
Hengelo Sander Schelberg VVD Non-green
Lelystad Margreet Horselenberg PvdA Green
Assen Carry Abbenhues PvdA Green
Katwijk Jos Wienen CDA Non-green
