RESOURCE CRISIS: HOW THE (UN)AVAILABILITY
OF MATERIALS CAN PREVENT THE ENERGY
REVOLUTION.
An interdisciplinary approach to the resource impediments of
energy transition.
Steffie Janssen - 10699864 Jeroen Kooijman - 10718397 Rens van der Veldt - 10766162 Teacher: Koen van der Gaast Abstract
Energy transition and changing the way we produce energy, substituting fossil fuels for new, cleaner ways of energy can prove to be a solution. However, the generation of this kind of energy may provide new challenges in the future, which the research proposed aims to assess. This paper provides an interdisciplinary insight into the pending shortage of critical materials, rare earth metals needed to build solar panels and wind turbines for the production of renewable energy, which this paper will limit to wind and solar energy, as these are most relevant for the Netherlands. We will show how the inevitable shortage of critical materials can lead to a slowing down of the transition to renewable energies.
Introduction
Public awareness with regards to the pressing issue climate change is, has increased substantially in recent years. Acknowledging the problem, however, is only the first step in preventing further damage. With the momentum gained from the current perception on climate change, it is important to realize a transition towards renewable energy. This transition, though, is not without consequence. Focusing on solar and wind energy, the two main sources of renewable energy, this paper will explore the obstructions a transition towards renewable energy faces, particularly on a resource level. Both solar panels and wind turbines require certain naturally occurring ‘critical materials’ to be useful, and these materials are not consistently and abundantly available; these materials are in fact, finite (Moss et al., 2011).
The renewable energy sector in the Netherlands is not yet fully developed, especially when comparing it with other European countries, the Netherlands are not taking on a leading position (Verbong and Geels, 2007;CBS, 2016). Through mainly wind turbines and photovoltaic cells, approximately six per cent of the total national energy demand is produced and is thus renewable (CBS, 2016). This is, with the exception of Luxembourg and Malta, the lowest share of renewable energy in the European Union (CBS, 2016). In the ‘Energieagenda’ published by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2016, it is described that the Dutch government has plans to reduce their CO 2 emissions, in correspondence with the European goals, with 80 to 95 per cent. This means that there are 33 years left to almost completely eradicate all forms of fossil fuels from the Netherlands (among the other EU-member states), having committed to the goals set in the Paris Agreement. These targets are quite ambitious, especially since the Netherlands are currently one of the countries that have done the least in terms of renewable energy implementation, and (according to the 2014 data provided by the Centraal Bureau voor Statistiek), are not even close to meeting their own 2020 renewable energy goals.
Utilizing an interdisciplinary framework, this paper will analyze the impediments these critical resources pose in the transition towards renewable energy from both the Earth Sciences and the Ecologic perspective, as well as providing insight into transition and transition management, hopefully embedding the necessity of a transition towards renewable energy and the impediments critical resources present in a solid theoretical base. The use of an Earth Science, Ecologic and Political Science perspective in this interdisciplinary paper are necessary because it creates a more complete analysis. When assessing the effect critical resources have on the transition to renewable energy in the Netherlands these three disciplines provide critical information. The identification and assessment of availability of demand is provided by Earth Science, the effects on the environment by the extraction of these critical resources is provided by Ecology and the process of transition and the shift in the geopolitical landscape is provided by Political Science. This will serve as a stepping stone in answering the research question: What are consequences of the availability of critical raw materials in a transition towards a renewable energy regime in the Netherlands?
Theoretical framework
To understand the posed research problem the important theories from the three disciplines need to be discussed. Once the important theories have been addressed, these theories can be compared. This can show if the theories show similar ideas or concepts. If so, the concepts and theories from each discipline can be connected. This will in turn create a theoretical framework that will be important through the course of the research.
There are multiple theories that have relevance to the transition to renewable energy that relate to the needed resources. The first important theory is related to critical resources. This theory states that a resource is classed as a critical resource when the growing demand in the future can cause a bottleneck due to the limited supply (Moss et al., 2011). There are several papers that classify certain materials as critical for the transition to renewable energy. In Nansai et al. (2014) neodymium, cobalt and platinum were identified as critical resources for low carbon technologies. Research from the Wuppertal Institut (2014) found that for wind energy dysprosium is essential. For photovoltaics indium, gallium, selenium, silver, cadmium and tellurium are resources needed for production. Furthermore, Alonso et al. (2012) concluded that praseodymium, terbium, and yttrium are also minerals of which availability is going to be critical with the growth of renewable energy technologies in the future. Moreover, Moss et al. (2011) concluded that gallium and indium also could be critical in an energy transition.
A second theory that is related to the resource based transition to renewable energy is a resource assessment. An identification of the critical resources allows for the amount of these resources to be estimated. McLellan et al. (2016) estimated the reserves of critical resources based on crustal abundance. This estimate is based on the amount of resources in the Earth's crust that can be extracted with economic viability. Vesborg & Jaramillo (2012) evaluated the amount of resource available by looking at the annual production rate. This was done by extrapolating trend data.
The third theory related to a transition to renewable energy from an Earth Science perspective is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis allows to estimate the amount of critical resources required in the future based on multiple scenarios. Based on multiple growth scenarios in future energy demand and recycle rates McLellan et al. (2016) estimated the demand for critical resources. Furthermore, Viebahn et al. (2015) estimated the resources required for an energy transition in Germany based on extrapolating trend data.
The last theory that is relevant is the natural resource scarcity theory. This theory links to the supply and demand model from economics. Natural resource scarcity relates to the available amount of natural resources to the demand of this resource. In this theory natural availability is chosen over relative price of the resource (Hall & Hall, 1984). Using this theory the resource assessment and the future demand from the scenario analysis can be weighed against each other. This allows the possibility to draw a conclusion on the possible restrictions the availability of critical resources on the transition to renewable energy. For photovoltaics the metals selenium, indium and tellurium will likely limit the production. Neodymium and dysprosium both will not be able to cope with the initial growth in production of wind turbines (McLellan et al., 2016). This conclusion was based a global transition to renewables. If we only consider the transition of the Netherlands the supply will likely be not a problem. Research has indicated that transitions in other European countries with larger energy demands will likely not suffer from problems in demand of resources. This analysis was conducted for Germany (Viebahn et al., 2015) and for the Nordic countries as a group (Sovacool, 2017).
For the ecological perspective we deal with a couple of assumptions and main theory that make it possible to draw conclusions about our research. In order to adequately consider ecological
influences of mining for critical resources. The literature clearly describes the effects that both open pit and tunnel mining have on the environment (Miao & Marrs, 2000), these primary effects are direct influencers of the environment. The extracted material as a whole affects the environment consequently when it is deposited during the mining process or afterwards in other locations as covered by Olsgard and Hasle (1993). The theory behind this is that of mining waste management which amplifies the necessity of treating waste in a responsible manner.
Furthermore, the processing of mining minerals is described in literature as potentially harmful to the environment, this happens either through insufficient cleaning or natural events that expose the toxic wastewater to the environment (Macklin et al., 2001). This is the outline for the theory of mining processing theory and clarifies the potential dangers of insufficient management in the processing section of mining for critical resources. These critical resources are determined from a semi-ecological aspect and are essential for the focus of our research.
The renewable energy theory clarifies the main concept here. We are currently mainly dependent on fossil fuels, these are being extracted faster than they are replenished, in other words, the regeneration rate is exceeded (IEA, 2017). Alternative sources such as solar and wind energy are much less finite, both being depend on the sun. Thus these resources can be seen as renewable, as neither will run out for some time, regardless the extraction rate. The limiting factor is now how much we actually can extract. The methods for these extractions are conventionally solar panels and wind turbines, both require a lot of materials to build and the availability of the resources for this subsequently determines the eventual maximum extraction. In order to tie this together, solar panels and wind turbines break after a certain time, which causes a permanent dependency on critical resources, this places a limit on renewability and helps us determine both ecological effects and assists in defining critical resources.
The transition management model is useful in dealing with matters of sustainable transition, as well as other complex matters having to deal with multiple actors from all areas of society, which is why there are different levels to be distinguished in this model. Most authors agree on the fact that within the transition model (Rip and Kemp, 1996; Kemp, et al., 2001; Geels (2002), there are three levels within the model that must work together and interact, for the transition to take effect: landscape, regime and niche. The transition theory combines the emergence of bottom-up ideas, with the support of top-down governance (Geels, 2002)
The landscape is the highest (macro) level. It indicates the comprehensive socio-technical context of political systems, social norms and values, but also the institutions and the economic systems in which the transition has to be made. The landscape is more often than not a representation of a wider socio-economic and political backdrop. The landscape is therefore placed more in the background, while the actors in the socio-technical regime and the niche levels are much more at the center of transition (Kemp, et al, 2001). This is also the reason that landscape changes occur much more slowly than regime changes, as they very slow and not subject to impulsive urges (Smith, et al., (2010). The middle, meso level, is the regime. This level refers to the prevailing set of rules, practices and technological advances that contribute to stable socio-technical systems. Smith et al., describe technological regimes as non-unitary entities, which “ involve the the active coordination of lower order agency on the part of institutions, networks and actors, as regime ‘members’ in their own right”, Geels (2002) expands the regime and refers to the middle level as ‘socio-technical regime’, referring to adding social groups, such as policy makers and economic actors into the level. The regime can be pressured by the landscape. The lowest, micro level is the niche level. The niche is the level where innovators can run free, as this is the level where radical innovation is supported and experiments can be done with no repercussions. Geels (2002) argues that innovations on the niche
level are protected from the ‘normal’ market selection in the regime, acting as incubators or protectors from the real world.
According to Geels (2002), transitions do not occur only through the emergence of new technologies, but also relate to “changes in user practices, regulation, industrial networks, infrastructure, and symbolic meaning or culture .... In this perspective technology, of itself, has no power, does nothing” (Geels, 2002) Only in association with human agency, social structures and organizations does technology fulfill functions. Thus, transition management can be used to comprehend the interaction between technology and human abilities, as well as creating a tool for the identification of pathways towards sustainable transition (Geels, 2002).
Geels and Schot (2007) provide five pathways towards transition:
● Reproduction: “If there is no external landscape pressure …, then the regime remains dynamically stable and will reproduce itself”;
● Transformation: “If there is moderate landscape pressure (‘disruptive change’) at a moment when niche-innovations have not yet been sufficiently developed, then regime actors will respond by modifying the direction of development paths and innovation activities”;
● De-alignment and re-alignment: “If landscape change is divergent, large and sudden (‘avalanche change’), then increasing regime problems may cause regime actors to lose faith. This leads to de-alignment and erosion of the regime. If niche-innovations are not sufficiently developed, then there is no clear substitute. This creates space for the emergence of multiple niche- innovations that co-exist and compete for attention and resources. Eventually, one niche-innovation becomes dominant, forming the core for re-alignment of a new regime”;
● Technological substitution: “If there is much landscape pressure (‘specific shock’, ‘avalanche change’, ‘disruptive change’) at a moment when niche- innovations have developed sufficiently, the latter will break through and replace the existing regime”;
● Reconfiguration: “Symbiotic innovations, which developed in niches, are initially adopted in the regime to solve local problems. They subsequently trigger further adjustments in the basic architecture of the regime” (Geels and Schot, 2007).
The framework provided by Geels (2002), is a useful way of understanding how transition works and how it can be realized, also when it comes to large scale projects such as creating more renewable energy in the Netherlands. This way of looking at transition teaches us that radically changing the way we do things, not just in the energy sector but in every complex issue, there is no one way to solve it, especially if it means that it will call for adjustments. Through these three levels, it was argued that change can happen both bottom-up, top-down or through a combination of both.
Classical Realism, sees states as rational actors which try to assure their own state security before anything else (Lebow in Dunne, et al., 2016). The three pillars on which classical realist theory rests are Security, Statism and Self-help, resulting in a state which cares most about its own security, is self-centered and will care little about the fate of other states (Lebow in Dunne, et al., 2016), as Classical Realism suggests that states should take care of themselves. Often, this results in a situation where states cooperate very little to absolutely none and will only trade in the case of absolute gains, as the state has security as a main objective (Lebow in Dunne, et al., 2016). If all states would be this way, a situation where the international community is a hostile environment with all states looking out for their own pursuit of power, could emerge (Lebow in Dunne, et al., 2016). It is a given that fossil resources like oil and natural gases are finite (MacKenzie, 1998). In a situation like this, where state governments are mostly set on state security and thus on their energy production, a transition from finite resources will be made, preferably not at the last minute. In the current situation, this will mean that the Netherlands will shift from importing fossil fuels to either importing finished products such as photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, or importing the resources to produce their own, for example
critical materials such as Neodymium, Cadmium and Indium, amongst others (Wuppertal Institut, 2014).
A large scale transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources will drastically change the Dutch trading partners, as the suppliers of renewable energy vessels and critical resources differ from the fossil fuel producing countries (Wu and Andrews, 2012; Johnstone, et al., 2010). As of this moment, the Netherlands are highly dependent on fossil fuels, and thus highly dependant on the countries which supply those, with our largest suppliers in 2015 being the Russian Federation, Norway, Nigeria and Saudi-Arabia (Notten et al., 2016). It can be expected of these countries to dislike the decrease of exports into the Netherlands, leading to unforeseeable economic and diplomatic complications.
The theories from the three different disciplines have certain overlaps and influences on each other. Firstly, The critical resource theory from Earth Sciences overlaps with the mining processing theory and the mining waste management theory from Ecology. The extraction of these critical materials is a fundamental part of the mining processing and mining waste management theories. The selection of critical materials directly affect the ecological effects of these two mining practices. Furthermore, the renewable energy theory from Ecology also has an overlap with the critical resources theory. The renewable energy theory describes energy sources that are regarded to supply energy from infinite sources. The limiting factor mentioned in this theory is the materials needed for production of these renewable energy sources. This is where the critical resources theory shares it common ground with this theory. The critical resources theory describes the limited supply of certain materials needed for production of renewable energy sources. Moreover, Earth Sciences and Political Sciences share an overlap in theories as well. The supply & demand theory and the geopolitical shift in the energy supply share certain features. The supply & demand theory from Earth Sciences describes the balance between the supply and demand of resources. The geopolitical shift in the energy supply describes the changing supply countries and a change in demand within the geopolitical landscape. This creates an overlap that connect the theories from the disciplines. Lastly, the overlap that is present in all of the disciplines is the theory of transition. Both Earth Sciences, Ecology and Political Sciences share a certain element of transition when looking at the energy transition in the Netherlands. This will be further explained in the interdisciplinary integration and the results from the analysis.
Figure 1: Integrated theoretical framework. Theories from earth science shown in orange, theories from political science in blue and theories from ecology shown in green.
Problem Definition
The problem we intend to provide an interdisciplinary insight to, is the problem that critical resources pose in the production of renewable energy. Critical materials are the scarce rare earth materials necessary for the building and functioning of solar panels and wind turbines, such as neodymium, or platinum. As these sources are finite and (not yet) recyclable, it means that there are limits to the implementation of renewable energy sources. We intend to explore the boundaries of these limitations. The research question in this research is: ‘ What are consequences of the availability of critical raw materials in a transition towards a renewable energy regime in the Netherlands?’. The research question was chosen because research on energy transition in the Netherlands has not yet focussed on the resources needed to produce these renewable energy technologies. This while resources that are scarce are already identified and their availability has been estimated.
Complexity can be used as a tool to show the importance of an interdisciplinary approach to the research problem (Menken & Keestra, 2016). Defining traits of complexity that apply to this research are nonlinearity, path dependence, robustness & resilience and adaptiveness. The growth in global energy demand keeps rising non linear. This demand will keep growing when third world countries keep developing (EIA, 2013). The pattern that the growth in energy shows is exponential, this is relevant for our research because with growth in energy demand, the demand for materials grows too (McLellan et al., 2016). Since the industrial revolution, the economy and infrastructure have been built mainly around oil and oil products with massive sunk costs. This makes a transition towards other energy products harder, creating a path dependance. This path dependence is supported by a discussion paper from Resources of the Future (Muehlenbachs, 2013), exampling sunk costs of the oil and gas industry like 84,000 wells in Alberta, Canada. This is enforced by the resilience and robustness of the oil industry which over time has acquired vast amounts of wealth and according to PWC’s top 100 of largest companies, 8 oil and gas companies hold a market value of approximately 1313 billion USD (PWC, 2016). This may hinder development speed. Adaptiveness is very relevant to the ecological aspect, though it may also apply to the previous element of complexity, robustness and resilience, in the context of the oil industry. In ecology it is hard to foresee what adaptations future expansion of mining (for critical resources) may cause. In other words, how the ecology may adapt to shifting influences.
Interdisciplinary integration
Complexity should be ‘harnessed’ and ‘dissected’ instead of eliminating it (Ostrom, 2009). Ostrom argues for the creation of an updated multilevel analytical framework, which can show insights towards understanding the interactions between social actors, institutions and the environment. The aggregation of these interactions between actors and the environment, can generate various conclusions. Authors applying the multilevel framework in transition management, can try to grasp complexity, applying it to look at ‘multi-causality’ or a ‘plurality of causes’ concerning the expansion of certain outcomes, processes and transitions, Grin, et al., 2010 state, arguing that linear causality should be discarded, as there is a ‘co-evolution’, processes at multiple dimensions, at the levels which will eventually make way for a transition (Grin, et al., 2010). This is why, Geels (2002) argues, transition management can adjust to ‘real-world developments’ while integrating various complexities. Geels (2002) notes that this is where Hughes’ (1987) term ‘seamless web’ comes in, as the multi-level perspective integrates various inputs into one comprehensive perspective.
Given the complexity of the problem handled in this research an interdisciplinary approach is required. To create an interdisciplinary approach the theories and concepts from the three different disciplines need to be integrated into a single framework (Molloy, Ployhart & Wright, 2010). Several methods need to be applied to create this integrated interdisciplinary framework. First, organisation needs to be applied to see if theories from the different disciplines are connected or show similarities. These theories can then be connected to create a larger framework (Molloy, Ployhart & Wright, 2010). An example can be seen in figure 1 by the connection between ecology theory of renewable energy connected to critical resources theory from Earth Science and the connection between the shift in energy supply from Political Science and supply and demand from earth science. If these theories or concepts do not show direct similarities or connections other methods need to be applied to create the integrated framework. Redefinition of theories or concepts can be a method that helps in
connecting these into a larger framework (Repko, 2012, Somerville & Rapport, 2000). Another method that connects theories and concepts is extension, in which a concept or theory is expanded from one discipline to another discipline (Repko, 2012, Somerville & Rapport, 2000). A combination of redefinition and extension can be seen in figure 1 by the larger theory of transition in the centre. This theory has been created to create a universal theory that connects to all disciplines in the theoretical framework.
Figure 2: Integrated theoretical framework. Theories from earth science shown in orange, theories from political science in blue and theories from ecology shown in green.
As is shown in figure 1, the main theme throughout this paper is transition. More specifically, the constraints critical materials pose in the transition towards renewable energy, using the Netherlands as a case. To connect the concept of transition to the three disciplines the definition of transition was extended from Political Science. The definition of transition in this interdisciplinary framework was extended from the definitions used in Avelino & Grin (2016) regarding the theory of transition management. Transition is defined as ‘non-linear processes of social change, in which societal systems are structurally transformed’ (Markard et al., 2012; Grin et al., 2010; Geels and Schot, 2007). Furthermore, sustainability transitions are defined as ‘radical transformation towards a sustainable society as a response to a number of persistent problems confronting contemporary modern societies’ (Grin et al., 2010). Another important definition related to transition in the research from Avelino & Grin (2016) is co-evolution. Co-evolution is ‘when the interaction between societal subsystems influences the dynamics of the individual subsystems, leading to irreversible patterns of change’ (Grin
et al., 2010) and this results in transition. With these definitions of transition, the concept could be used as the central concept within this interdisciplinary research. This definition of transition is closely related to transition management if we look at the claims of Frantzeskaki et al. (2012) used in Avelino & Grin (2016), which state that ‘The premise of transition management is that incremental changes in the societal system may turn into radical transformation in the long-term’. This definition of transition can also be connected to critical resources, their ecological impact and changing geopolitical landscape. Critical resources, their ecological impact and the changing geopolitical landscape can be linked to transition due to their role in the energy transition. The energy transition can be seen as a sustainability transition, which is discussed in Avelino & Grin (2016). The use of critical resources, their ecological impact and the changing geopolitical landscape in a transition towards renewable energy will influence the sustainability transition.
Furthermore, it was tried to connect the insights theories from all three disciplines provided, into a larger framework, using the integration technique of organisation. The Political Science discipline will try to provide context for the pending transition towards renewable energy using transition management theory, and attempt to contribute depth and clarification regarding the shift in the global energy supply, as a result of the shifting supply chains and the different supply and demand chains. This is what integrates the Political science discipline into the Earth science and Ecology disciplines.
The importance of a social science in combination with natural science perspectives, is that they broaden the perspective and can provide a, simply put, better explanation. Where political science cannot provide any insight into the material or ecological pitfalls and opportunities, it can show why certain actors behave in a certain way, and why their actions lead towards certain things, and ignore others. And while Earth science can’t tell us how the political landscape works like Political Science can, the discipline can show what the chances of transitioning towards renewable energy are, in terms of the availability of resources. And while the Earth scientist might find an available amount of resources, the Ecology discipline shows us how these can be made ready to use, by mining for example, and what the consequences for surrounding ecosystems are. Furthermore, integrating these findings from the three disciplines into one scope creates a unique insight into the problem that is more complete than just combining the three results together in multidisciplinary research. During the integration process the disciplines can support each other and allow for new results to be found, which could not have been found within a single discipline. This is why interdisciplinary study is an approach needed for complex problems like the energy transition.
Selected method and data
To successfully conduct the research data on the availability of critical resources for renewable energy and connected political and ecological obstacles needs to be collected. The selected method of data collection will almost entirely consist of use of secondary data. This secondary data will be collected from literature from the three different disciplines. There has already been written a range of literature on the chosen subject. Information on the following subjects will be the main focus on the search for secondary data from research papers: critical resources, transition theory and ecological consequences of mining activity. This data will be analyzed by reading relevant papers and extracting this information into our individual literature reports. For our research we will combine the information from the different disciplines and integrate it into an interdisciplinary research. This will add a different view into this pressing problem. A literature study was chosen as most of the methods used for collection of primary data cannot be used for the research. Obtaining useful information that will contribute to the research from methods like surveys, field observations or lab experiments will be very hard. The subject of this research involves a range of countries around the world and different energy production techniques, which makes it difficult to collect data on our own. It was decided to not gain primary data through interviews or surveys. The collected information will then be applied to a case study. In this research the chosen case study is the country of the Netherlands.
Results Transition
Transition as defined by the transition management theory, where it is realized through niche innovations moving up to a socio-technical regime before working its way up to the landscape, is a very slow and steady process. Many innovations might not even make it past the niche phase — this means a lot of innovations get lost in the vast amount of innovative ideas (Geels, 2002; Rip and Kemp,1996).
Moreover, we can assume that while renewable energies have been introduced for a while now, most have not made it past infancy yet (Verbong and Geels, 2007). The landscape remains unchanged and while recent years have paved the way in terms of public opinion, the numbers don’t lie. The Netherlands, priding itself in being a country with progressive values, is dangling with the bottom few when it comes to renewable energy in the European Union (CBS, 2017; Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2016).
As mentioned before, Geels and Schot (2007) identify five pathways for transitions. We argue that in the case of the renewable energy transition, the pathway of technological substitution will be most likely to occur, as the eventual dominance of renewable technologies is inevitable with the decreasing availability of fossil resources. As there is a significant pressure on the landscape in the form of the depletion of non-renewable resources, fossil fuels, there is a need for the creation of other sources of energy. As renewable energies have proven to be effective in the creation of renewable energy we expect the renewable energy sector to further develop the efficiency in capturing renewable energy. This will only help to accelerate the growth of other technologies, eventually replacing the role of fossil fuels, creating a new landscape situation where fossil fuel use will be decreased tremendously and renewable energy production will be the new norm.
Transition is the central topic within the research and was defined using the definitions from Avelino & Grin (2016). Within the energy transition this covers several factors of the transition. Firstly, this means a transition from resources needed to produce fossil fuel energy to new resources needed to produce renewable energy. To produce these renewable energy technologies raw materials are needed. A significant part of these materials are available in short supply. The availability of these resources could limit the transition towards a renewable energy regime. Research from the Wuppertal Institut (2014) defined these as ‘critical materials’. Furthermore, a transition happens on a spatial scale, where our traditional resources might have come from countries like the US or Norway, some of these critical resources are mainly found in China.
To analyse the transition towards a renewable energy regime these critical materials for a energy transition needed to be identified and their availability must be assessed. A selection of critical materials was made of different research looking into the availability of resources needed for an energy transition. These materials are shown in the left column of Table 1. The assessment of the availability can be done with two different methods. In Vesborg & Jaramillo (2012) the annual production rate was approximated. Furthermore, in McLellan et al. (2016) the crustal availability was estimated. The availability of the selected resources from both these researches are shown in Table 1. Table 1. Approximate annual production and crustal availability of rare chemical elements needed for
renewable energy production
Chemical element Approximate annual production
(kt/year) (from Vesborg & Jaramillo, 2012)
Crustal availability
Neodymium 20.0 28.6 Mt Dysprosium 1.0 Selenium 2.5 211 kt Yttrium 6.3 14.3 Mt Copper - 1300 Mt Indium 0.5 35 kt Tellurium 0.5 31 kt Platinum 0.2 81 kt Cadmium 20.0 - Praseodymium 5.0 - Silver 25.1 - Gallium 0.125 - Terbium 0.2 -
Next to an assessment of the availability of these critical resources, the future demand for these resources must be quantified to get a good overview. Research from McLellan et al. (2016) estimated the future demand by creating four different scenarios. From these scenarios a minimum, average and maximum value of materials needed is created. The estimated demand of this research is shown in Table 2. Furthermore, research from Viebahn et al. (2015) estimated the amount of materials needed for an energy transition in Germany at three different points in time. This estimation was performed for photovoltaics (Table 3) and wind turbines (Table 4). As mentioned, worldwide, the transition to renewable energy sources has only just emerged from the niche-phase into the regime. However, it could be argued that the Netherlands, due to their low market share in renewable energy, is still operating within the niche level of the transition management framework. In addition, many technological advances are still niche developments and developments in efficiency are made
constantly. Because of the relatively low amount of energy that is generated with both solar panels or wind turbines, the availability of the critical materials has not been an issue to date. Nevertheless, if the projections are to be taken seriously and the transition to renewable energy will further push forward into the regime and with time even contribute to the changing of the landscape, measures regarding recycling or other sources of critical materials have to be explored thoroughly. This conclusion was supported by results from McLellan et al. (2016), as the scenarios with improved recycling showed significant increases in production of every resource tested.
Table 2: Estimated amounts of rare earth metals per Gigawatt energy produced (from McLellan et al., 2016)
Mineral Material Intensity (t/GW Installed Capacity)
Tellurium 98 67 2 187 Selenium 45 23 0.5 45 Indium 23 26 3 83 Neodymium 200 158 41 203 Dysprosium 13 12 3 24 Platinum 0.1 0.44 0.1 1 Yttrium 20 110 20 200
Table 3: Estimated amount in kg of rare metals per Gigawatt in Germany at three different time periods for photovoltaics (from Viebahn et al., 2015)
Cell type Raw material 2013 2025 2050
CIGS Indium 55.5 45.0 3.0 Cadmium 1.3 1.3 0 Gallium 7.2 3.2 1.2 Selenium 39.3 17.4 6.3 CdTe Tellurium 99.7 43.1 35.3 Cadmium 116.7 63.8 33.0 Indium 15.5 15.5 0 a-Si Indium 4.0 0 0
Table 4: Estimated amount in kg of rare metals per Gigawatt in Germany at three different time periods for wind turbines (from Viebahn et al., 2015)
Generator type Mineral 2013 2025 2050
Direct drive (DD) Neodymium 201.5 162.5 130.0
Dysprosium 15.0 11.7 11.7
Middle speed (MS) Neodymium 49.6 40.0 32.0
Dysprosium 3.7 2.9 2.9
High speed (HS) Neodymium 24.8 20.0 16.0
Dysprosium 1.8 1.4 1.4
High temperature superconductor (HTS)
In order to assess or predict the ecological impacts of a transition to the previously discussed materials we need to look at case studies and find what possible impediments and trade offs have to be made. In an article by the Union of concerned scientists (2013) impacts of neodymium mining in China are specifically mentioned. Although China is a vast developing country, the article supports that ecological management in China still has a long way to go. In our analysis we found that there are three main causes of ecological impact due to mining activities, direct mining impact, processing impact and finally waste impact.
Open-pit mining is a technique in which large areas of land are excavated and processed to extract any valuable materials. The technique is applied, for example, in the Baotou mine in
Mongolia, where neodymium is mined. Using this technique completely removes the overlying land and implies massive damage to the previously existent environment. Usually the area that is excavated only makes up 20% of the total directly affected area. This technique also requires stripped areas (59%), tailings dams (13%), waste tips (5%), and land affected by mining subsidence (3%) (Miao & Marrs, 2000). An ecological analysis of open pit mines has been done in Iran, where the effect of open pit mines on the ecological factors of public health and safety, social relationships, air and water quality, flora and fauna were taken into account. This study (Monjezi et al., 2009), concluded that in at least one of four cases, all aspects were significantly damaged with even critical situations of air pollution. This is a cause for concern if a spatial transition would focus mining in a country with bad ecological management, like China as stated by Miao and Marrs, in their analysis of a mining site in Shanxi Province, China: “large areas of degraded mining land remains barren preventing agricultural, social and economically sustainable development in affected areas.”
Water that is used in filtering raw mining material can contain fine ground particles and minerals that are toxic in high concentrations, such as Zn, Cu and Cd. This wastewater is often stored in tailings ponds for recycling or cleaning. Unfortunately, this technique is not flawless. Between 1970 and 2001 over 35 major tailing pond dams failed causing massive damage to the ecology. One of these events has been studied by Macklin et al. (2001). This study monitored the effects of two
tailings pond dams in Romania that failed, releasing 200,000 m3 of contaminated water into Danube tributaries. This had far reaching ecological effects and as far 10 km downstream the toxic metal concentrations remained present. This too is a reason for concern due to the fact that in China management of these ponds may not be as strict as in eastern Europe.
When the Jøssingfjord titanium mine in Norway deposited their cleaned non-toxic fine ground from their mines into the fjord. A study was conducted on how this affected the benthic marine life by Olsgard and Hasle (1993). This study revealed that deposition in the fjord led to a strong decrease in faunal and floral diversity, 94% of the fauna consisted of the opportunistic species of Capitella capitata. This happened as a direct effect of the filling of the fjord. A period of 5-6 years was needed to restore diversity tenfold. However, even though diversity seems to restore, an article by Ellis and Hoover (1990) showed that in coastal areas the affected areas were still not fully recovered after 12 years. This calls for great precaution in mining waste deposition if China is to keep its rich
biodiversity.
Exponential growth
The world population has grown exponentially over the last decades. This is mainly due to population growth in non-OECD countries in the global south. This population growth will decrease but continue (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015). While the energy demand in the developed world has stayed approximately the same as the population growth, the energy demand in the developing world has increased approximately double the population growth (McLellan et al.,
2016). This non-linear growth in the energy demand will put pressure on the current way of energy production. To accommodate for the growing demand in energy the transition to renewable energy is required on a global level. This will cause a growth in demand for the mentioned critical materials. The resource assessment from McLellan et al. (2016) and Viebahn et al. (2015) showed a rapid increase in these materials. This will increase difficulty for the Netherlands to transition to a
renewable energy regime as well as increase the aforementioned ecological impacts if production is to keep up. Due to the uncertainty of ecological reaction to these tradeoffs we might see that certain ecosystems are increasingly pushed to tipping points due to the nonlinearity of production growth.
Current energy trading partners include Russia, Norway and the United Kingdom (CBS, 2011). These countries provide the Netherlands with crude oil and natural gas, which is needed to provide the country with heat and electricity. When the Netherlands decide to pursue more renewable energy, it will happen gradually and not overnight. Bear in mind that, the amount of energy used is expected to decrease a little but will remain at the level it is now, if we are to believe projections (CBS, 2016). The way the Netherlands will transition from fossil fuels towards renewable energy could be seen as a realist course of action, as the security of the Dutch own energy supply will be put before the pre-existing relationship with current trading partners. As mentioned before, this can result in hostility towards the Netherlands. Additionally, the Central Bureau for Statistics (2016), project that even by tripling our current allocated renewable energy sources, these will still only account for about 15 per cent of the total energy consumption in 2035. In 2014, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that from 2025, the Dutch position in the international energy markets will change from a net exporter, to the role of a net importer, as the Groningen gas field is starting to deplete and further extraction will cause extreme circumstances for the area surrounding the gas field, with the costs of rehabilitation outweighing the benefits of the extracted gas (IEA, 2014).
In addition, the IEA advises the Netherlands to “reassess its security of supply and seize all
economic opportunities in developing remaining gas reserves, including innovative uses of natural gas and infrastructure (including power-to-gas, gas in transportation). The IEA recommends that the government continue the security assessments and test the resilience of the energy systems while discussing the gas transition with the Groningen gas consumers at home and abroad and evaluating technology options and implications in this transition” (IEA, 2014). Therefore, we cannot abandon our current trading partners in the search for energy, linking us to a certain path dependency as well. Path dependency
While solar panels have been introduced to regular households by making them fiscally attractive and there are wind turbines positioned besides many highways, the Netherlands are far from being
dependent on renewable energy (IEA, 2014; CBS, 2016). We can assume that renewable energy in the Netherlands is definitely still in the niche-phase of the transition management model. Where there is big talk about the need to transition, the importance of being more ‘green’ has only been established since the most recent national elections, or at least that is what the results show (NOS and Ipsos, 2017).
Political parties who put the importance of sustainability and renewable energy on the agenda, such as GroenLinks and D66, have gained some seats in the parliament (NOS and Ipsos, 2017). However if we look at the demographics, the votes acquired by these parties come mostly from young people, which can indicate that the older generations are not yet coming to terms with the importance of a renewable transition and this also shows in the election numbers: traditionally more right-wing parties which value economic growth over ‘green policies’ have also gathered quite the amount of votes, especially with people 35 or older (NOS and Ipsos, 2017). The recent news of negotiations
failing between these political parties, can prove that the people are not yet ready for the inclusion of a ‘green’ state of mind — indicating that a renewable transition is still far away (Schippers, 2017).
Path dependency also plays a role on a global scale, the energy grids, roads and economic systems are built for the traditional resources such as fossil fuel, increasing the difficulty of transition. The ecological impact of this path dependency lies in the fact that with new resources, new methods, come new impacts. These new ecological “players” might require different strategies and
Conclusion, discussion and recommendations
In conclusion, this research looked at the consequences of the availability of critical materials towards a renewable energy regime in the Netherlands. Theories from three different disciplines were used to create an interdisciplinary theoretical framework. This was applied on the Netherlands as a case study. The application of this interdisciplinary theoretical framework provided information on transition, the non linear growth and path dependency of the energy transition.
With this information, the research question: ‘What are consequences of the availability of critical raw materials in a transition towards a renewable energy regime in the Netherlands?’ can be answered. First of all, transition is hindered by the sheer amount of the critical resources available, the scarcity in combination with non linear growth may cause the resource to be unable to keep up. There is also a strong tradeoff happening, although the effects of global climate change may be mitigated, other negative environmental effects might become important due to the spatial transition of mining practices towards countries like China, with lacking ecological management practices. Additionally, the Netherlands are very dependent on natural resources. As mentioned, the current generation of renewable energy is nowhere near ready to account for even a majority of the energy production.
There some recommendations for further research into the energy transition in the
Netherlands. Firstly, at the moment most data on critical resources is on a global level. This makes it difficult to downscale this data onto a case study like the Netherlands. Therefore, specific resource requirements for an energy transition in the Netherlands need to be quantified. At the moment all that can be done is estimate what the energy requirements are in the Netherlands. A more precise analysis into critical resource availability will give more reliable results. Furthermore, addition of a more well founded estimate of recycle capabilities of these critical resources could add to the accuracy of the results. In this research scenario studies were used with only two states of recycling. This can give an good indication to assess possible problems. However, with more knowledge on possible recycling in the future this indication could be improved. Additionally, the addition of an economic analysis of the resource needed for an energy transition could add to a more complete analysis of the problem. The three disciplines currently used to analyse the problem cover the problem for a large extent, but the addition of an economic perspective could have additional value.
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