Amsterdam Solarcity: Transition theory
applied to Amsterdam’s solar energy
system.
Future Planet studies
Interdisciplinary project Marty Aarssen – Earth Science
18 December 2015 Aimée van Ham – Human Geography
Jaap Rothuizen, MSc Mattie Janssen – Urban Planning Dr. Alison Gilbert Nicolas Poolen – Bussiness Studies
Abstract
Amsterdam has set a goal to increase renewable energies by 20% per inhabitant in 2020. In this report a research has been conducted to the role of solar energy in accomplishing this goal. According to the transition theory a transition is needed from the current regime towards a regime in which solar energy is more integrated. Currently the solar energy potential is 7,5% of the total energy used in Amsterdam. Technological niches are able to enhance this potential and a supportive landscape level makes it more likely to create a new regime. Within the regime the capability and willingness of the actors business, citizens and government are investigated. These actors are considered the most important and their capability and willingness give a complete overview of the current regime. Outcomes are that all the actors are capable of implementing a significant amount of solar energy, but change could enhance this. Willingness by government and business on the other hand is
unsupportive for the transition of solar energy and requires change. Landscape pressures are supportive for the transition. Finally, recommendations are given for the government to stimulate the transition towards a solar city.
Introduction
The sun is radiating more energy to the Earth in a few hours than the entire human population consumes from all sources in a year (Tsao, Lewis & Crabtree, 2006). There is much to gain from solar energy now and in the future. However, solar energy is among the lowest energy providers of Amsterdam. The city of Amsterdam has set as goal to increase the generation of renewable energy by 20% per inhabitant by 2020. Burning municipal waste is the largest source (around 70 percent) amongst this generation of renewable energy (Gemeenteraad Amsterdam, 2015). Counting the burning of municipal waste as renewable energy is questionable because of polluting by-products. Wind and solar energy both are suitable renewable energy sources and need expansion to accomplish the goal of Amsterdam. This report contributes to this expansion by investigating solar energy.
With the knowledge that solar energy is only contributing a small amount of the total energy of the city, the transition theory will be used to investigate the technological niche and the current regime that solar energy needs to penetrate. This paper will offer a broad view of all the actors involved and their willingness and capability to change.
The aim of this research is to investigate how solar energy can contribute to the transition to renewable energy in Amsterdam. The leading question in this paper is “What
regime changes in Amsterdam’s solar energy system are possible and what role could solar energy play in meeting Amsterdam’s 2020 target of 20% more renewable energy?”
The main question has four aspects: technological, business, government, and citizens. The technological niche perspective questions the full solar energy potential of Amsterdam, with an overview of the role solar energy has nowadays in the market. Also the future market will be explored. Business, government and citizens are researched separately but with the same method; assessing capability and willingness. The business perspective finds out what role businesses can and want to take in Amsterdam solar energy
developments. The government perspective focusses on how the government can or want to implement solar energy in Amsterdam. The social focus on citizens takes into account implications and opportunities regarding the future of solar energy production. Finally, the outcomes of this research will be used to give recommendations to the government of Amsterdam for making better usage of solar energy in accomplishing their goal of 20% more renewable energy per inhabitant in 2020.
Theoretical Framework
Transition literature
The energy system can be identified as socio-technical system as it includes the
interdependent dimensions named by Geels (2002): actor networks (energy markets, users linkages, energy infrastructure), institutions (energy policy) and material artifacts and knowledge (technical knowledge). Because these dimensions are interdependent, they cannot change independently. Therefore, substantial change in a socio-technical system is identified as an non-linear complex transformative process, or more commonly addressed as a ‘transition’. This paper regards the additional twenty percent of renewable energy in the city of Amsterdam, as part of the transition of the socio-technical energy system to
renewable energy dependence. For this reason transition literature requires to be examined, when analyzing the contribution of solar energy to the changing Amsterdam energy system.
Transition theory includes three key concepts: landscape, regime and niches (Geels, 2002) as also indicated in the image below. The current state of these individual actors together form the current regime. Secondly, this regime requires the 'landscape' to be able to transition to a new regime. The landscape includes the external pressures that ‘push’ the regime to react. In the energy system, it is formed by the increasing international pressures for decreasing environmental impact, and increasing awareness of the extended energy use in cities. Lastly, to be able to transition, the regime requires to be triggered by a niche. A niche is a socio-technical innovation, that provides opportunities for other niches, until a niches is as developed to trigger a transition. At the niche level, this paper identifies current solar energy technology as one of the triggering innovations, enabling the regime of the energy system of Amsterdam to partly transition.
Image: Transition theory applied to our case. (Original image from Geels, 2002)
Solar Cities
Lehman identifies a set of principles which combined formed the foundation of green urbanism (Lehmann, 2010). One of the principles he addresses is Solar cities. This concept had first been used by Carl-Jochen Winter in 1994 in his article published in Renewable
Energy. His article attempted to describe in what way cities might develop when there is no
unlimited amount of fossil fuel based energy resources available. His expectations at that time were that a ‘Second Solar Civilization’ would take place in the 21st century. The first solar civilization ended at the time that the industrial revolution began. Before the industrial revolution the only energy source was the sun, along with its derivative energy forms, wind hydropower and biomass. He stated that in the case of fossil fuel based energy there are three links concerning energy conversion. First, the raw materials need to be converted to the primary energy. Second, the primary energy needs to be converted to the end energy. Also transport and storage are included within this link. Third, there will be wastes and pollutions. According to Winter (1994) his predicted Solar Cities will make use of local, solar-based energy sources, which only make use of the second link.
Now it is clear how Winter thinks of the benefit of solar energy, an explanation is needed about how his forecasted Solar Cities will look like. Solar Cities in the 21st century
will be based on a low-energy economy. This means that cities will not only be focused on qualitative growth hand in hand with energy use increases, but that growth can also be achieved with less energy. Using less energy will be a permanent goal for governments in cities and the need for mobility will be much less. This because work and private will be more integrated and the public transport systems will be clean and more efficient.
As the 21st century has begun several years ago, there can be stated that the goals set by governments to reduce energy usage, like the goals set by Amsterdam (Amsterdam Duurzaam, 2014) are the first signs of a Solar City predicted by Winter.
Smart city
Another principle Lehman addresses, regarding green urbanism, is the Smart City concept. In a Smart City there is a high integration of science and technology (mainly ICT) through information systems. It requires cooperation of the government, business and the research community (Bowerman et al., 2000). Among researchers it is seen as a potential city-form for creating sustainable cities, as well social and environmental (Caragliu et al., 2011). Because smarter innovations together with better cooperation, may lead to less energy use and may come up with new ideas for sustainable projects.
Critics on the Smart City concept are often that many cities use the Smart City label more for advertising than for coming up with real solutions (Hollands, 2008).
Game theory
Game theory explains large scale collaboration in such a smart city system may be unrealistic. Grant (2012) offers insight in the contribution of game theory to strategic management in business. He argues game theory in business indicates five forms of behaviour firms can conduct in competitive situations of which collaboration is only one:
● Firms can cooperate to encompass competition
● They can conduct deterrence, by inflicting unnecessary costs upon competitor. ● Firms require commitment to successfully execute deterrence,
● Firms can attempt to change the structure of the game, by implementing creative strategies.
● Firms can signal selective or false information to influence competitors behavior.
Dynamic capabilities theory
Actors must also be able to redirect their resources for successful collaboration (as in a smart city system), and individual investments in solar energy. Teece, Pisano & Shuen (1997) developed an approach for evaluating firms performance based upon their dynamic capabilities. By dynamic capabilities is meant “the firm's ability to integrate, build, and
reconfigure internal and external competences to address rapidly changing environments. Dynamic capabilities thus reflect an organization's ability to achieve new and innovative forms of competitive advantage given path dependencies and market positions“ (p. 516). In
addition, competitive advantage of firms, according to the approach, “lies with its managerial
and organizational processes, shaped by its (specific) asset position, and the paths available to it” (p. 518)
Theory of social acceptance
In addition, actors must also be willing to redirect their resources. The willingness of citizens is influenced by both internal and external factors on different levels. Wüstenhagen explains this in the theory on social acceptance toward renewable energy and distinguishes three dimensions of social acceptance: socio-political acceptance, community acceptance and market acceptance (Wüstehagen, 2007). The first is acceptance on the general level and involves the current situation of institutions and policies. The acceptance on this global level regarding public support for renewable energy is overall positive (based on opinion polls), even in countries where governments relatively aren’t involved as much. Community acceptance refers to the acceptance of residents of renewable local projects in their surroundings and even though the general acceptance is positive, on local level this can differ. Community acceptance is often influenced by different factors such as distributional justice (how the profits are divided), procedural justice (the involvement of all stakeholders in an honest decision making program) but also the trust (internal factors) of the community in external investors and actors. Community acceptance is linked to the NIMBY (not in my backyard) principal, but this is mostly an issue with wind turbines and probably less with solar energy (Wüstenhagen, 2007). Lastly market acceptance is the adoption of technical development, in this case solar panels, through a communication process of the consumer and their surroundings. Technologies regarding renewable energy are often quite complicated and bound to infrastructure. This in a way decreases market acceptance, because consumers can’t easily discuss it with their environment and so sharing it is harder (Wüstenhagen, 2007). The smart cities concept stated above, may solve problems of lacking infrastructure. Also businesses, with highly developed dynamic capabilities may be able to build bridges.
Willingness to pay by consumers
Scarpa did a survey with a choice experiment approach among British households and investigated the attitude toward sustainability and the willingness to pay for different types of micro generation technologies that generate renewable energy, including solar energy. He found the attitude is overall positive but the costs among citizens are higher than the
willingness to invest. Masini explains that choices in behavioural finance are often not rationally based. This can be seen in the aforementioned example: even though the attitude of the respondents toward renewable sources of energy is positive and on the long term the respondents would profit from the technologies, the WTP is lower and most of them probably won’t choose for solar energy. This goes along with the perception of (technical) risk regarding solar energy: if they have a negative attitude towards solar energy technologies the threshold to change is much higher when the attitude is positive. This attitude is often not based on facts or rational but formed by different behavioural factors such as education, beliefs and policy preferences, history with renewable energy sources, trust in technologies and risk willingness (Masini, 2012). “Missing the wave”, as described by Geels (2005) in his identification of six firm-related patterns in transitions, may be an example of irrational investment behaviour, where firms miss opportunities for innovation provided by a transition.
Willingness to pay by firms
Factors that influence willingness to pay in firms are different. This largely depends on two factors, the expected return, and their perceived social responsibility. The average expected return is dependent on the expected returns of each outcome and the related probabilities/risks of these outcomes (Berk, 2014).
Stakeholder vs Shareholder Theory
Their perceived social responsibility is related to between the tradeoff between shareholder and stakeholders theory. Shareholder theory argues a firm’s primary objective is to increase the value of the firm for the owners (shareholders). On the contrary, stakeholder theory, argues a firm’s primary objective is to increase value for all parties affected by actions conducted by the firm (stakeholders) (Smith, 2003).
The levelized cost of electricity
In addition, a factor that influences willingness to pay of all actors is The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This concept is an economic assessment of the total build costs of a power source and its operating costs divided by the output during its lifetime. The LCOE is expressed by the equation:
The levelized cost of electricity method is used to determine whether grid parity occurs, which is the case when solar panel electricity costs equal or less than electricity from the grid. In many countries grid parity will differ because the price and lifetime of solar systems and the price of electricity from the grid are different. Also the levelized cost of electricity method used to calculate when grid parity occurs is sensitive because of the assumptions regarding the lifetime of a variety solar energy systems. Within the solar energy industry grid parity is often seen as a tool whether the solar energy market in a certain country is mature or not, however a direct increase in demand might be an overestimation of the effect of grid parity. The price elasticity of demand for solar energy is not well understood (Greentech Media, 2015).
The theories so far have demonstrated a certain dependence of the factors involved on to what extend the technologies have been developed. Technological development can increase by competition as explained in game theory, which is also a firm-relate patterns in transitions of Geels (2005)
Methods: approach and research design
An interdisciplinary approach has been deemed necessary, because there are actors from different domains who play a role in the solar energy transition. Monodisciplinary research cannot examine aspects from the whole transition. By making use of the transition theory the involved theories and received results must be integrated, therefore an interdisciplinary research is needed too (Rutting et al., 2014). The theoretical framework already provides us with theories from different disciplines. These theories give insight into how the different disciplines are able to contribute in a solar energy transition. The disciplines which are involved in this research are Earth Science, Urban Planning, Business and Human
Geography. The set goal for the earth scientist is to assess the technological potential from the niche level. The three other researchers observe the actors in the regime level and the landscape pressures on these actors. This will be conducted by doing a literature study and by interviews with representatives of the three domains.
Actors Representatives Function
Business J. Vogel;
Vanessa ’s Gravesande.
Employee ‘DeZonneFabriek’, a local solar panel vendor; Regional manager Amsterdam ‘VNO-NCW’, an entrepreneur organization.
Citizens Employee Consumentenbond. Representative on sustainable subjects.
Government T. Stam. Municipal employee at the
section ‘Ruimte en Duurzaamheid’.
There is a need for research into the current regime and its obstacles for a transition towards solar energy.
The regime level needs to be researched for a better understanding of how the regime can beneficially be changed for the transition towards solar energy. The focus for the regime level will be on the capability and willingness of respectively the government, the business sector and the citizens. These actors are considered the most influential on the regime and therefore have significant influence on the transition towards solar energy. This influence can either be supportive or unsupportive. Capability gives insight in what an actor potentially is able to do, it indicates the full potential of the actor. Willingness on the other hand gives insight in how eager the actor is to turn its potential into good account. Both indicators together give a complete picture of the regime level regarding the solar energy transition.
Also the landscape level pressures each actor experiences will be researched. This is important, because it shows the urgency of a transition.
The textual findings will be converted in a table for getting a more understandable indication of the situation in Amsterdam.
Government Citizens Business
Regime level
Capability
Willingness
Landscape level pressures
Each indicator will be graded to point out if the situation is currently supportive or unsupportive for a transition towards solar energy. This grades are ++, +, - and --(!). A grading of ++ means that the situation is supportive and there is no change required. + means that although the situation is supportive, there is still change required. The grade – means that the situation is unsupportive, but no change is required. The worst grade is --(!), this means that the current situation is unsupportive and that change is definitely required for a transition towards solar energy. The investigated actors are chosen because they do have an influence on the transition. Therefore, there is no neutral grade included; the influence is either supportive or unsupportive. The grades will be provided by the researcher of each domain, based on the literature and the obtained information by the interviews.
No change required Change required
Currently supportive for transition ++ +
Currently unsupportive for transition - --(!)
This research will give an indication of what the situation of Amsterdam is regarding the transition to solar energy and gives indications of how the transition can be stimulated. However, due to lack of means and time, only partial aspects of the different domains can be investigated. So the results of this research contribute to a better understanding of the solar transition in Amsterdam, but simply cannot contain the whole transition.
Results
The different transitional levels are addressed. First the niche level, subsequently the regime level and lastly the landscape level.
Technological Niche level
To evaluate if solar panels can be a transition-triggering technology niche, the amsterdam technological potential is first assessed. Next, an analysis of the the current market is conducted, followed by a prospect on future technologies.
At present Amsterdam finds itself in a situation where 15.138.889 MWh of total energy is used a year, of which around 45% is natural gas, 30% electricity, 20% is mobility on Amsterdam’s soil and 5% is heat. Then about 35% of the natural gas, electricity and heat is used by individuals, the rest is used by business, industry and ICT. Sustainable energy is responsible for 750.000 MWh a year (4,95% of total energy), of which only 1% is solar energy(Gemeenteraad Amsterdam, 2015). The contribution of solar energy to the energy use in Amsterdam is very small. In calculating its potential the council of Amsterdam estimated that half of all the roofs in the city are suitable for PV panels. With 22km2 of roof this results in 11km2 of roof which, following their reasoning, in total has a potential of 1.100.000 MWh a year (7,3% of total energy) or 1300MW (Programmabureau Klimaat en Energie, 2013).
Division of roof surface (Programmabureau Klimaat en Energie, 2013)
Now that amount of solar energy would account for 75% of the total electricity used by homeowners in town. This is 25% of the total electricity used in town.
Households in Amsterdam reached grid parity in 2011. Solar energy became cheaper than the electricity of the net. It is important to note that grid parity is calculated with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This concept is an economic assessment of the total build costs of a power source and its operating costs divided by the output during its lifetime. It is calculated under assumptions made about the lifetime of solar energy systems. Values could easily be different for certain systems. However it is likely that solar energy systems will continue to be more cost effective so that this phenomenon will also occur for large users of electricity in the future, like companies and governments. Nowadays parties with a usage until 50,000kWh a year (disk 2) pay considerably more for electricity than parties with usage of more than 50,000kWH a year (disk 3). Grid parity still has to occur for parties in disk 3. Installation costs of solar panels are the biggest part of the investment costs in solar panels. It is expected that these will not fall. With bigger solar energy system these costs are considerably smaller than with little systems (Gemeente Amsterdam, 2013).
On an individual level when using stationary solar panel systems a 33° Southward orientation gives the most optimal results. When the panels are used on a flat roof, energy output decreases by 12%. If facing East or West, 10% will be lost and facing North 60% will
be lost. The optimal slope ranges from 68° in December and January to 12° in June. (Paardekooper, 2015). More energy can be gathered if the slope is monthly adjusted to these changes with respect to the sun. Adjusting the slope per month increases the net present value by 3-6%.
Current Market
85% of all the solar systems are mono- and multi-crystalline PV modules, recognized by their blue and black color. These panels are the cheapest with an efficiency ranging from 14%-21% (Programmabureau Klimaat en Energie, 2013). Thin film technologies account for another 14% of the market. Silicium, CIGS, of cadmium telluride are applied to surfaces in a thin film. With an efficiency of 6%-14% these films are found in solar panel rolls or attached to building materials (Programmabureau Klimaat en Energie, 2013). The last <1% of the market consist of concentrators; multi-layer cells of semiconductors with a potential yield of 25 to 30 percent. In labs all around the world, including AMOLF at Science Park research is done to optimize new-technologies and production techniques. High efficiency concepts with nanotechnology and low-cost concepts with polymer solar cells should be able to result in more solar electricity per square meter, lower costs and new applications
(Programmabureau Klimaat en Energie, 2013).
New technologies
A recent development in new technologies is the solar distributor, which is a solution for shared housing. It divides the solar energy of one big installation over the electricity meters of the participating residents (Zonnestroomverdeler, 2015). Most new technologies not only have better solar energy conversion, they also tend to be more efficient in translating this to electricity. According to a SolarCity spokesman ‘the new panel produces 30-40 percent more power than standard efficiency solar panels, but the cost to manufacture them is the same’ (RenewableEnergyWorld, 2015). Assuming the council of Amsterdam didn’t account for this recent development, this could increase the potential of solar energy in Amsterdam to 1690MW-1820MW, resulting in 9,5%-10,2% (33% of all the electricity use) of the total energy use in town. More expensive innovations could add up for another 30-60 percent. It has been estimated that utilizing a sun tracking system instead of a stationary array can increase the yield from solar panels (Kassem & Hamad, 2015). These techniques are often used at big solar farms, instead of on roofs because at the moment it is financially more attractive to buy more panels instead of this tracking system. The downside of this
innovation at the moment is that the initial investment would be at least twice as high when buying solar panels, assuming change in the future, becoming cheaper and more attractive for the owners of solar panels. Transparent solar panels might become an option in the future, creating new possibilities as energy creating windows. The researchers at Michigan State University are working on panels that absorb only ultraviolet and infrared light so that the visible light still shines through the window. Not only new buildings will profit from this
new development in the future. This technology can be integrated in the current glass buildings by covering the glass with a thin flilm transparant plastic. (MSUToday, 2015)
Niche level overview
The technological potential has been analysed, conclusions can be drawn. In short the potential of solar energy now is 7,5% of the total energy in town, when all available roof surface would be used. This potential is only expected to rise in the near future due to new technologies. However high installation costs of solar panels are not expected to fall. Now this paper analyses the regime level actors on the willingness and capabilities of affiliates, to evaluate to what extent this potential can be realised.
Regime level
As stated in the methods, we use capability and willingness to analyse the different factors of the regime. Therefore, first these indicators are analysed for business, then for government and last for citizens.
BUSINESS - Capabilities
If all firms would be capable and willing to investing in personal solar panels, this could sum-up to a significant amount of solar energy. However, local solar panel vendor,
DeZonneFabriek, regards only certain groups capable of investing in solar energy (Personal communication, November 25, 2015). As indicated in the table below there are four groups who can or cannot utilize certain regulations. Only groups 1 and 3 are able to use
regulations to invest in solar panels. Employee of DeZonneFabriek, J.Vogel, claims managers of firms in group 2 and 4 are generally not capable to justify investments in solar panels. As no information was available on specific sizes of each group, the average Kwh per establishment per sector was first calculated by using the total kWh energy use per sector and the establishments per sector in Amsterdam from Appendix A (Gemeente Amsterdam, 2015). Subsequently, these averages were used to estimate the percentage of kWp that could be used in each group using the generally adopted conversion rate of 0,85 kWp/kWh and the recommended 75% energy per establishment generated by solar energy. This concludes 21,03% (the combination of group 1 and 3) of energy generated by firms, may be capable to be generated by firm invested solar energy.
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Power of firm’s Solar panels Vermogen ≥ 15 kWp 15 kWp > Vermogen > 25 kWp 25 kWp ≤ Vermogen ≤ 50 kWh Vermogen > 50 kWh Regulations SDE+ compensation None 41,5% of solar-investment deductible from profit → Increased Tax shield Normal electricity price reduces to ¼th. Percentage kWh optimally generated by firms in this category 4,28% 14,45% 16,74% 64,52%
Currently, 20% of Amsterdam’s roof area is owned by businesses and an additional 9% belongs to office buildings (Dienst Ruimtelijke Ordening, 2013). Given the total potential of 1.100.000 MWh, this sums up to 319.000 MWh of potential solar energy. However, approximately 21,03% is able to invest. Therefore, under current legislation, only 67.085,7 MWh could potentially be generated by firms on their roofs. An approximation on the Amsterdam governmental websites claims 38,1 percent of the current total solar energy watt peak generated Amsterdam is by businesses (Gemeente Amsterdam, n.d.), which
corresponds with total of 2857,5 MWh in 2013. This is only 4,26% of the potential. However, this calculation did not account four firms willingness
In addition, as can be observed in the table below, solar energy has relatively been limited exploited by energy firms. This is a consequence of internal and external limitations on capabilities. Game theory explains competition exerts external limitation on solar energy firms, when attempting to enter the established traditional energy market. The low marginal profits of solar energy are a limitation as well. Internal limitations arise from lack of dynamic capabilities, which cause fixed resources and limited diversification opportunity. However, competition induced innovation races, as described by Geels (2005), increases technical potential of solar energy.
Graph; total TW sunpower generated vs TW sunpower generated by energy firms in(centraal bureau statistiek, 2014)
Lastly, though energy corporations provide a significant potential for civilians, currently commercial energy corporations involved in solar energy represent only a small percentage(Planbureau voor Leefomgeving, 2014). This may be due to similar limitations as energy firms.
BUSINESS - Willingness
This paper argues that the willingness of business to be involved with solar energy largely depends on two factors, the expected return, and their perceived social responsibility. The average expected return is dependent on the expected returns of each outcome and the related probabilities/risks of these outcomes (Berk, 2014).
While often firms still regard perceived risks and expected returns of solar energy investments unfavorable (Wustenhagen & Menichetti, 2011), others are willing to conduct research on implementation, such as Amsterdam’s major public transport company GVB. As stated at the awareness category, shareholder theory is largely adopted. Therefore a large group will only be willing to invest if the investment satisfies their short-term profit attitude. Vanessa ’s Gravesande Penn added (Amsterdam’s Regional Manager of the largest entrepreneurial organisation of the Netherlands, VNO-NCW): “A lot of firms whom’s mission
does not include any sustainable factors, are not willing to invest” (personal communication, November 19, 2015).
In addition, energy corporations point to a lack of action perspective and possibility to professionalise for corporations to get involved ((Planbureau voor Leefomgeving, 2014). This is primarily due to the current legislation, which provides a poor earnings model. They like to see changes in current legislation which allocates ‘costs and risks’ of electricity generation to the user.
CITIZENS - Capabilities
The capability among is based on the attitude towards solar energy and this is on its turn linked to certain individual factors such as age, education, beliefs and political opinion, risk willingness and awareness (Massini, 2012) The overall education level in Amsterdam is higher than in other areas in the Netherlands (in 2008, 38 percent in Amsterdam is highly qualified versus 24 percent in the Netherlands) and this has a positive effect on the capability and the awareness regarding sustainability (van Oosteren, 2012). Also income (which is often related with education) can play a role in the capability, due to the fact the installation of solar panels are costly, even though after a while they are earned back and people can save money. In the chart below you can see in 2009 the average income was the in Amsterdam the highest (€ 31.600), compared to the citizens in the other three big cities and the average of the Netherlands (€ 29.800). On the other hand the house value is the highest in Amsterdam (Gemeente Amsterdam, Bureau Onderzoek en Statistiek, 2012) .
Based on the division of the roof surface, 36 percent of the total roofs in Amsterdam are from citizens and could be used for generating solar energy. Still the capability and usage of solar panels on houses in Amsterdam is very low: there are only around 2000 private owners using solar energy while in total there are around 432 thousand households (Amsterdam.nl). So the percentage of private ownership in Amsterdam comes down to only 0.004 percent. According to the interview with the representative of Consumentenbond this percentage is this low because not every household has access to its roof because they live in flats or when they live in a rented house think they can't use solar panels. This is often not true, because certain arrangements can be made that make this possible (personal
communication representative for Consumentenbond, november 29, 2015). Also people perceive to high risks which are often not rationally based: the related costs are too high, while often all the related costs are earned back within 7 years. Also people think solar panels require a lot of maintenance or have a short lifespan, while actually this is 25-30 years. Lastly people think that the profitability is low and only energy is generated when the
sun is shining, what is a misconception, because daylight is enough to generate energy (personal communication representative for Consumentenbond, november 29, 2015).
CITIZENS - Willingness
Based on Scarpa’s research among British households we can conclude that the willingness of civilians was present and there was an overall positive attitude towards solar energy, but the cost and risk are conceived as too high and the effort to change as too much. The willingness to pay for the change is thus lower than the actual costs involved with solar energy. It will take the consumers to long before the solar energy will be profitable and these are all thresholds regarding the willingness.
According to Massini choices in behavioral finance are often not rational and cause a certain threshold. Based on the interview this is also the case for Amsterdam :people perceive to high risks which are often not rationally based. The related costs are too high and operate as a threshold, even though the related costs are earned back within 7 years. Also people think solar panels have high risks, require a lot of maintenance or have a short lifespan, while actually this lifespan is 25-30 years. Lastly people think that the profitability is low and only energy is generated when the sun is shining, which is a misconception, because daylight is enough to generate energy and recent technologies increased the overall efficiency of solar panels (interview representative for Consumentenbond, 29-11-2015)
For the willingness of the citizens an internal factor influencing the attitude towards renewable energy is the political position. In 2015 the political party with the most votes in 2015 was D66 with 20,3 percent followed by PVDA (15,1 %) and VVD (13,2 %), but only 41,1 of the citizens voted (Het Parool, 2015). D66 wants to stimulate the sustainable development and the environment is an important standpoint (D66, 2012). Also PVDA has the environment and sustainability as one of the main points (PVDA.nl) while the VVD is still positive towards sustainability but also wants to reduce subsidies regarding renewable energy sources and combine the now available energy sources. They see the current renewable energy sources as a risc and state to wait for the future for new, more profitable techniques (VVD, 2015). The three parties together count for almost 50 percent of the citizens and these parties are overall positive and thus you can say the attitude of most of the civilians in Amsterdam is as well, but still the usage is low.
Some of the threshold can be decreased by external interventions: subsidies will make it less expensive, insurances for potential risks and more flexible rules regarding solar energy for consumer usage. In the interview it also emerged that the media can play an important role in the behaviour of the consumers: they can make more people aware of the current problems, take misconceptions away and generally inform people.
Wustenhagen (2012) distinguishes three types of acceptance that influence social
acceptance and one of them is market acceptance. This is linked with the other disciplines because it is set on different levels. Market acceptance is not so high with sustainable techniques, because people can’t discuss the techniques easily and thus share it with their environment, but the media can simplify this. Also It's a relatively new technique and they hear (or see) little about it, because not many people in their surroundings have experiences with it. On the other hand solar energy is visible when used and once more people are using the technique the thresholds and perceived risks decrease and thus more people are likely to take the risk and invest in solar panels (personal communication representative for Consumentenbond, november 29, 2015).
GOVERNMENT - Capability
The most concrete form of determining the capability of the government of Amsterdam is looking at roof surfaces. At the first place this is the total amount of the roof surface of municipal buildings, which is 2% of the total suitable roofs for solar panels in Amsterdam. Municipal buildings alone will not make a substantial difference, but social housing, which is closely related to the government, will. The social housing sector contains 21% of the
suitable roof surface for solar panels.
Beside this concrete capability, the government in Amsterdam has an important capability in making solar energy more reachable for consumers and the business sector. According to T. Stam, municipal employee ‘Ruimte en Duurzaamheid’, Amsterdam fulfills this stimulating capacity by alerting, advising, financing and changing obstructive laws. For consumers on a household level the government in Amsterdam offers an energy loan, which is meant for investing in renewable energies and has lower rents than common loans. A second instrument is the ‘Duurzaamheidfonds’, out of which investments can take place in solar energy based projects, which cannot be created by the initiator itself. This fund contains among €100.000.000. Other stimulations for consumers are VAT refunds when investing in solar energy and beneficial fiscal regulations for consumers who team up in producing solar energy. For the business sector the government stimulates solar energy by subsidizing
solar panels on societal real estate and by subsidizing the purchase and exploitation of solar systems. Also beneficial fiscal regulations can stimulate business of investing in solar energy.
Lastly, Amsterdam is making effort to change the city towards the smart city concept. In Amsterdam there is the innovation platform ‘Amsterdam Smart City’. This platform challenges companies, civilians, municipality and knowledge institutes to come up with solutions and ideas about urban problems. A project achieved by the Amsterdam Smart City platform concerning solar energy is the project ‘Oosterlicht’, which is the biggest cooperative organized solar roof of Amsterdam with 480 solar panels on the roof of the IJburg College. The government must take a significant role in this concept to create an environment for sharing ideas and solutions by companies, civilians and knowledge institutes.
GOVERNMENT - Willingness
One could state that the goals set by Amsterdam on the field of sustainability show that the municipality is willing to make the transition towards more solar energy, and this person would be correct based on these goals. But how does the willingness of the municipality look
like if policies with different goals meet? As stated in the capability section of the government, the social housing sector
possesses 21% of the suitable roof surface. Until recently many housing corporations were eager to implement renewable energy techniques, such as solar panels as a part of maintenance. However, according to P. Hoetjes (personal communication, October 5, 2015) who is a policy officer at the housing corporation ‘Stadgenoot’, this eagerness is low at the moment. This change is due to the agreements made in the ‘Woonakkoord 2014’. One of the agreements is the implementation of the landlord charge, which is 0,449% of the dwellings value per year. This is similar to two months of rent income. Due to this landlord charge it is hard for housing corporations to invest in renewable energy techniques, according to Hoetjes. This example indicates that when it comes to a clash in goals, sustainability gets the worst of it. Change is required on this matter and T. Stam, who is a municipal employee on the subjects ‘Ruimte en Duurzaamheid’, explains that Amsterdam has created a new model in which an external financier makes the investment and the corporation then can ‘rent the sun’. At the moment ‘Eigen Haard’ is making use of this model, but Amsterdam tries to involve other corporations to participate (personal communication, December 8, 2015)
Regime level overview
In conclusion, regime level overall attitude can be regarded as divergent. The capability is overall relatively supportive for a transition, but there are variety of changes required. However, the willingness is different. The willingness of business and government are found to be unsupportive for the transition, and require significant changes. On the contrary, the willingness of the citizens is currently supportive for the transition. However, there are changes required as well.
Landscape level
The last level of analyses, is the landscape level. Again, this is done by analyses of the pressures of the different regime factors. The order is first business, followed by government and last citizens.
Pressures on BUSINESS
Part of the planning of Agenda Duurzaamheid (2015) is to actively point business on solar panels opportunities. In addition, they provide convenient tools for business to compute the return rate and return time of a solar panel investment. The national SolarDays is another annual governmental campaign to promote solar energy investments. The conventionally adopted shareholder theory considers business primary objective profit maximization. Therefore we assume business in Amsterdam must be reasonably aware of the extensive promoted solar panel financial opportunities. This correspondents with a quote from Vanessa ’s Gravesande Penn: “Managers and Entrepreneurs, are increasingly regarding
sustainability and solar energy as a natural part of business, especially in Amsterdam” (personal communication, November 19, 2015). Therefore, there will be little occurrence of
“missing the wave” effect as stated by (Geels, 2005). However, managers and/or shareholders may not be fully aware of the common environmental benefits.
Pressures on CITIZENS
Even Though the overall attitude is probably positive, based on the fact that (this still has to be apparent from the interview), still the usage of solar energy in Amsterdam is low. According to Wustenhagen (2012) this is influenced by the personal surrounding of an individual: if people around you are using solar energy you are affected by this. The awareness increases and so the unfamiliarity slowly disappears, causing the threshold to decrease. People are stimulated by their surroundings to change as well and be more know with the benefits. In Amsterdam there a little solar panels and thus people won't be exposed by it. Based on the interview this is caused by some overall misconceptions and more
stimulation from the government and media will lead to smaller thresholds and perceived risks.
Pressures on GOVERNMENT
Amsterdam is definitely aware of the fact that there is a need for a transition from conventional energies towards renewable energies, such as solar energy. Setting goals like the 20% raise of renewable energy by 2020 would otherwise not have been done. International research has let to a consensus of progressive cities to participate in the transition to renewable energy. Cities want to be part of movements like green urbanism and make use of concepts like the smart city concept.
Recently there has been a shift from “toelatingsplanologie” and “ontwikkelingsplanologie” to “uitnodigingsplanologie” in the Netherlands. This way of planning requires a facilitating position of the government to help initiators (Van Rooy, 2011). A development plan is created by the municipality which sets the rules for usage of the concerning area, but besides initiatives need to come from investors and civilians. The government needs to support these initiatives without taking over. This is much more a bottom-up policy system than former top-down systems. This way of planning also matches with the results of international research about bottom-up policies being more likely to stimulate renewable energies (Lutsey & Sperling, 2008; Fraser et al., 2006)
Landscape level overview
The landscape pressures are found to be very supportive. All regime actors currently are under pressure. According to the transition theory, this increases the opportunity for a niche to trigger a transition.
Results overview
To get an overview of the divergent information revealed, the results are presented in an organized table, given below.
Government Citizens Business
Regime level
Capability + + +
Willingness --(!) + --(!)
Landscape level pressures ++ ++ ++
No change required Change required
Currently supportive for transition
++ +
Currently unsupportive for transition
Conclusions and recommendations
This paper is written as an reaction on the plan of Amsterdam to increase the generating of renewable energy to 20 percent in 2020. Solar energy is one of these techniques and in this paper we looked at the current use of this renewable form and the potential this energy type can have and so the leading question in this paper was “What regime changes in
Amsterdam’s solar energy system are possible and what role could solar energy play in meeting Amsterdam’s 2020 target of 20% more renewable energy?”
This was investigated with an interdisciplinary approach using the transition theory. The focus of the first researcher was on the niche level technologies of solar energy in Amsterdam. In short 7,5% of the energy contribution to the total energy used in the city could be powered by solar energy if all roof surface available would be used. This potential will soon rise to 10% because of more efficient solar panels. With new technologies like transparent solar panels new doors will open as glass windows will be able to produce energy and the potential solar energy has will only increase again. High installation cost are expected to remain in the near future. Therefore, this paper has three recommendations regarding the niche level for the Amsterdam Government.
● Actively search for new technologies.
● Promote and support new technologies by embracing innovative networks. ● Demonstrate openness for implementation of new technologies in solar
energy related regulations.
Then the focus of the other three researchers was on the capability and willingness on regime level of respectively the government, the business sector and the consumers on the pressures from the landscape level.
Although Capability of Amsterdam’s regime level factors are generally supportive for transition, a lot can be gained. Therefore, this paper provides recommendations as well.
● Sustain enlarging governmental supportive capability by alerting, financing, advising and changing obstructive laws.
○ The subsidiary gap for business energy users, requires to be closed, to involve businesses in group 2, as addressed in the business capability section.
○ Embrace smart city networking capability, to actively intensify involvement of solar energy stakeholders.
○ Disable financial obstructions for citizens.
Willingness of Amsterdam’s regime level factors are more divers. For citizens there is willingness to invest, but it has not converted into action, because of perceived barriers. In
addition this paper observed significant barriers at business and government. However, it regards these barriers as reasonably solvable. Therefore, it suggests the following recommendations
● Fully embrace stimulating capacity
○ Change citizens’ image of solar panels, by decrease irrational risks of citizens by increasing information and react to false information.
○ Sustain actively informing business.
● Provide insurance structures for risks of solar panels.
● Reëvalute prioritization regarding sustainability objectives versus other objectives. Lastly, as can be observed from the information analysed, the landscape pressures on the regime level factors are supportive. Therefore, our last recommendation is:
● Listen to and utilize landscape pressures to justify enforcements for the execution of the other recommendations
The partly present capability and willingness, combined with the increase capability and willingness by adopting the recommendations, could, according to these researchers, significantly, but limited, change the energy regime of Amsterdam. It is important to notice that this limitation is related to the current technologies, and could stretch with growing technological innovations.
Lastly, this paper argues, if the recommendations are adopted, solar energy demonstrates large potential for meeting the 2020 renewable energy target of Amsterdam. The increase of 20% represents 150.000 MWh more energy by renewable sources, which would require an additional 13% of available roof-surface covered with solar panels, if generated with solar energy alone.
Interdisciplinary reflection
To come to an integrated conclusion, we used an interdisciplinary approach. The first step in acquiring interdisciplinarity was adopting the transition theory. This theory is
interdisciplinary by nature, and provided us with a bases of common definitions on the concepts that guided us. It provided a clear allocation of disciplines as well. We used Earth sciences for the niche level, as this was a more technical domain, and the energy regime or landscape pressures does not include specific earth sciences matters in Amsterdam. The other three disciplines, human geography, business and urban planning did have an obvious fit in the regime level and in the landscape level as well. We focussed however on their role in the regime level, and the landscape pressures exerted on their role in the regime level.
In addition, we required an interdisciplinary approach for the analyses of the different regime level factors. To do so, we had to reach common ground on the indicators; capability and willingness. With clear understanding of these concepts, we individually could start analysing the case. Afterwards, we could compare our results and integrated them into a table.
All the results were formed into recommendations for the government together. Therefore it was needed to integrate the results from the four disciplines into
recommendations, categorized by the levels of the transition theory, meant for an institution from one discipline. So, we used an integrated theory and integrated our results, which are characteristics of an interdisciplinary research.
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Appendix A
Electricity usage (MWh) Establishments (kWh/Establishment)Average (kWh/Establishment)75 of % Average Group A agriculture, forestry
and fishery 3022 85 35552.94 26664.71 3
B mineral extraction - - -
-C industry 159455 2121 75179.16 56384.37 4
D energy firms 112976 31 3644387.10 2733290.32 4
E water extraction and
waste disposal 60365 48 1257604.17 943203.12 4
F construction industry 126391 4702 26880.26 20160.20 2
G trade 432817 12545 34501.16 25875.87 3
H transport and logistics 205229 2780 73823.38 55367.54 4
I hospitality industry 253093 4399 57534.21 43150.66 4
J information and
communication 361338 8458 42721.45 32041.09 3
K financial institutions 633410 3186 198810.42 149107.82 4
L trade, rental real estate 206024 1264 162993.67 122245.25 4
M consultancy and research 467475 24409 19151.75 14363.81 2 N other business services 32674 4337 7533.78 5650.33 1 O government 27035 146 185171.23 138878.42 4 P education 94277 3734 25248.26 18936.19 2
Q health- and social-care 84572 7457 11341.29 8505.97 1
R culture, sport and
recreation 86645 12124 7146.57 5359.93 1
S other services 223835 3978 56268.22 42201.17 4
T Staff private
households - - - -
-U extra-territorial
organizations and bodies - - - -
