Social acceptance of solar power in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan : an exploration of the level and sources of societal support for PV

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SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE OF SOLAR POWER

IN THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN

AN EXPLORATION OF THE LEVEL AND SOURCES OF SOCIETAL SUPPORT FOR PV

Master thesis International Development Studies Sandra A. Dijkstra Graduate School of Social Sciences

University of Amsterdam Supervisor: Ulrich Mans, MA

November 2012 Second reader: dr. Michaela Hordijk

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ABSTRACT

This thesis examines the level of social acceptance of photovoltaic (PV) solar power in Jordan and explores the factors contributing to its shaping. Because successful energy transitions require not only technical, regulatory and infrastructural adjustments, this study employs a social sciences perspective on energy transitions to investigate people’s decisions to support (or reject) energy innovations. Social acceptance is the sum of the support among different societal groups and stakeholders. Accordingly, this research studies social acceptance in four dimensions: professional acceptance, public acceptance, consumer acceptance, and local acceptance, using qualitative interviews, questionnaires and case study research. Among professionals, the business sector and academia are supportive of solar power, while the government position was found ambiguous. Consumers and the public are positive about PV, but unfamiliarity with the technology and with the conditions (e.g. cost) under which PV will reach the market makes their support preliminary and little specific. Local residents in the town of Ma’an are also highly supportive of the placing of solar farms in their locality, but demand economic benefits in return. Their support, therefore, should not be taken as a given, but dependent on the fulfillment of expected returns.

Factors which can potentially contribute to the explanation of these support levels are taken from the social acceptance literature, and tested in relation to the Jordanian acceptance of solar power. Although many subjects playing a role in the social acceptance of solar power in Jordan are largely similar to subjects determined important in non-Arab contexts for other energy innovations, their content and relative weight is different from the experiences that other technologies in other contexts suggest. Jordan’s support for solar power reflects not a normative change towards renewables, but rather a pragmatic change towards greater energy security and diversification, in which a combination of economic, technological, and climatic reasons are decisive. Regarding local acceptance, the case study suggests that ‘not in my backyard’ (NIMBY) attitudes can only to a limited extent explain the local response to solar projects in Ma’an, and also elements of the ‘please in my backyard’ (PIMBY) hypothesis should be considered. Landscape values are unimportant, but disputes over land ownership complicate siting decisions. Perceived procedural and distributive justice is then decisive.

Key words: social acceptance, renewable energy, photovoltaic, PV, professional acceptance, public acceptance, consumer acceptance, local acceptance, energy transition, Jordan, case study Shams Ma’an, MENA

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First of all, I would like to sincerely thank my thesis supervisor, Ulrich Mans, for his assistance and guidance: your confidence in me is much appreciated. Also, I owe many thanks to my local supervisor, professor dr. Ahmed Al-Salaymeh, who has received me with great hospitality in the Water, Energy and Environment Center of the University of Jordan. Your support and recommendations have opened doors to important respondents of this research. Additionally, I am grateful to the staff of the Energy Center for being my colleagues during this research, for helping me with the logistics of this study, and for brushing up my technical understandings of solar technologies. Especially Murad has been of great help with his punctual and timely translations, and his notes that successfully navigated me through numerous taxi rides all over Amman. Special thanks should furthermore go to Ele Jan and Sabrina of SaafConsult BV, who have introduced me to their relations in the energy sector, and with whom I could discuss about my research. Furthermore, Fawaz has been of great help as my companion and translator in the case study research, and the work of my research assistants Farah and Tamer has been vital to the collection of surveys. I am grateful to Desertec who has rendered available their University Network to allow for the arrangements of this research, and I would like to thank all respondents for their willingness to cooperate in this research. Julia, field work would not have been so much fun without you as my flatmate, colleague, travel companion, and friend. Anja, Artur, Harriët, Helen and Rik, thank you for your assistance. Finally, this research would not have been possible without the support of my parents. Pap en mam, thank you for your advice and support throughout my studies, and during this research particularly.

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Basic model of social acceptance of energy innovations ... 16

Figure 2.2: Basic explanatory conceptual model of energy innovations... 23

Figure 4.1: Structure of electricity market ... 40

Figure 4.2: Development of electricity tariffs 2002-2012 ... 42

Figure 6.1: Total levels of public support ... 62

Figure 6.2: Awareness about solar power ... 64

Figure 6.3: Self-rated knowledge about solar power ... 64

Figure 6.4: Tested knowledge about energy sources ... 64

Figure 6.5a: Importance of considerations Figure 6.5b: Unimportance of considerations ... 66

Figure 6.6: Reasons to install PV ... 73

Figure 6.7: Reasons not to install PV ... 73

Figure 7.1: Awareness solar projects ... 86

Figure 7.2: Support for statements concerning solar projects in Ma’an ... 89

Figure 7.3: Expected personal benefits from solar projects... 90

Figure 8.1: Basic explanatory model of social acceptance of PV in Jordan ... 105

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1: Operationalization of the dimensions of social acceptance ... 25

Table 3.2: Research Methodologies and Techniques ... 27

Table 4.1: Structure of the electricity market ... 40

Table 4.2: Electricity tariffs in fils per kWh as announced on June 5, 2012 ... 42

Table 6.1: Results of indicators for public support ... 61

Table 6.2: Relation public support and importance of considerations about electricity provision ... 67

Table 6.3: Relation public support and energy related opinions ... 68

Table 6.4: Willingness to purchase PV... 71

Table 6.5: Willingness to accept ‘green energy’ ... 72

Table 6.7: Relation willingness to consider the purchase of PV and various energy related attitudes and background variables ... 75

Table 7.1: Support for solar project in Ma’an ... 85

Table 7.2: Perceived procedural justice ... 86

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LIST OF BOXES

Box 1.1: Photovoltaic (PV) solar power ... 10

Box 3.1: Research locations ... 32

Box 5.1: Advantages and disadvantages of PV ... 47

Box 5.2: Net-metering in Jordan... 58

Box 6.1: Energy preferences ... 63

Box 6.2: Jordan’s nuclear story ... 65

Box 6.3: Jordan’s experience with solar water heaters ... 79

Box 7.1: Ma’an Development Area ... 84

Box 7.2: Shams Ma’an ... 87

Box 7.3: Why implementation is taking so long ... 98

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CPV concentrated photovoltaics

CSP concentrated solar power

EDCO Electricity Distribution Company

EPC contractor Engineering, Procurement and Construction contractor ERC Electricity Regulatory Commission

GDP gross domestic product

GW gigawatt

IDECO Irbid District Electricity Company IEA International Energy Agency IPP Independent Power Producer JAEC Jordan Atomic Energy Commission

JD Jordanian Dinar

JEA Jordan Electricity Authority JEPCO Jordanian Electric Power Company

JOSCO Jordan Oil Shale Company (subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell) JSSD Jordan Society for Sustainable Development

LNG liquefied natural gas

MDA Ma'an Development Area

MDC Ma'an Development Company

MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources MENA Middle East and North Africa

MoU Memorandum of Understanding

MW megawatt

NEPCO National Electric Power Company NERC National Energy Research Centre

NGO non-governmental organization

NIMBY Not In My Backyard

n.s. not significant

OECD Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development PIMBY Please In My Backyard

PPA Power Purchase Agreement

PV photovoltaic

RE renewable energy

RE&EE Law Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Law RSS Royal Scientific Society

UAE United Arab Emirates

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1. INTRODUCTION

Approaching Queen Alia International Airport, great aerial views stretch behind the smallwindows, showing a sundrenched country with vast empty plains. With some imagination, or perhaps with the passing of some more time, one can imagine endless rows of solar panels looming up, powering Jordan, and perhaps feeding a transnational electricity grid.

Although this picture is yet a daydream, the first plans are being made to harness Jordan’s potential to generate electricity from the sun that shines on the Jordanian deserts more than 300 days a year. This study will investigate these plans, and will assess to what extent Jordanian society is willing and prepared to support such large solar fields, as well as smaller scale systems powering individual households, to serve the nation’s energy demands. The need for such an energy transition, and the point of approaching this energy transition from a social sciences perspective, is made clear below, and is followed by the position of the research question and thesis outline.

1.1 The need for an energy transition

A reliable and affordable energy supply is fundamental to economic functioning and human welfare, and generally considered an important prerequisite for development (IEA 2004: 330-340). Alarmingly, however, energy stability is under threat. Despite a temporary slowdown in world energy consumption caused by the 2008-2009 global recession, global demand is expected to rise by a staggering 53% between 2008 and 2035. Most of this increased demand comes from non-OECD (mostly developing) countries where energy consumption is expected to rise by 117% in the projection period as a consequence of increased industrialization and continued population growth (IEA 2011: 9). At the same time global petroleum and natural gas reserves face depletion, and appear to be insufficient to match the near future energy demands. Geopolitical tensions over these strategic resources continue to occur frequently, and prices are consequently proving increasingly high and volatile. In addition, the potentially damaging environmental impacts of the continued use of fossil fuels are considered to be among the most serious threats to the earth’s environment and human health, with potentially devastating worldwide human and economic cost (Assefa & Frostell 2007: 66). These and other factors together drive a search for alternative energy sources and technologies, and have increased the consciousness that there is an urgent need to reduce emissions, to use energy more efficiently, and to displace fossil fuels with clean and inexhaustible energy sources.

A central role in the transition to a more secure, reliable and sustainable energy path is played by renewable energy sources, of which solar energy is one with high potential. Electricity produced by solar power, although currently only contributing a small share of renewable supplies, is increasing rapidly (IEA 2010: 9). Solar power has great potential as the sun radiates enough energy in one hour to cover the world’s energy demand for a year, if it would be captured. The technology is now available, and special attention is increasingly diverted to the potential of deserts as a solution to our energy problem (e.g. Desertec1). The Middle East and North Africa

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The Desertec initiative aims to facilitate the generation and transmission of clean power from the world’s deserts. For more information about Desertec consult www.desertec.org.

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(MENA) are with their abundance of sunshine, low humidity and large areas of unused land extremely favorable for large-scale deployment of solar energy. A chunk of the Sahara the size of Portugal could theoretically produce the same amount of energy as current global production combined (Walt 2009).

Although the need for a transition to alternative energy resources is relevant in global perspective, this need is particularly visible in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Jordan has negligible fossil fuel reserves, and is consequently dependent on foreign imports for 96% of its energy requirements (World Bank country data). These imports are under constant pressure, and have been disrupted first in the 2003 Iraq war, and recently as a consequence of continuous attacks on the pipeline carrying Egyptian gas to Jordan (Jordan Times July 22, 2012). The government has therefore set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix from 0.5% in 2009 to 10% in 2020, of which up to 1200 MW would be solar capacity (National Energy Research Centre 2007: 20). In combination with the observed availability of various highly favorable locations for solar power, these conditions make Jordan an interesting and relevant location to conduct a study into the chances and challenges for solar energy in the coming years.

Box 1.1: Photovoltaic (PV) solar power

Photovoltaics is the direct conversion of light into electricity. In 1839 Edmund Bequerel discovered that certain materials (e.g. silicon) produce electric current when light falls on them, known as the photovoltaic effect. When these materials are used in cells or panels, sunlight can be used as a source to generate electricity.

In the 1960s this knowledge began to be used to provide power in spacecraft, in the 1970s PV also started gain recognition as a source of power for non-space applications, and since the 2000s PV has become widely used in different applications.

A full system is made up of one or more solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, electrical interconnections, a DC/AC power converter (known as inverter) if the electricity is delivered to the electricity grid, and a racking system depending on the use of a system on the ground/flat roof or on a tilted roof (more information about the workings of PV can be found at www.science.nasa.gov).

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1.2 The point of approaching energy transitions from a social sciences perspective

The mere availability of favorable sites, suitable technologies, and even a threatened energy security do not automatically result in a smooth and successful market implementation of energy innovations. The literature traditionally focused mostly on the technical, regulatory, and infrastructural requirements of energy transitions, but could not always explain why energy innovations were adopted in some contexts but not in others. While different outcomes were initially simply attributed to ‘residual’ or ‘non-technical factors’ (Wüstenhagen et al. 2007: 2683), it is now increasingly acknowledged that people’s decisions to use or avoid, to accept or resist, to support or hinder, and to invest in or ignore new energy technologies deserve to be studied in their own right. Successful diffusion of innovations crucially relies, besides techno-economic factors, on creating societal support for the technology (Heiskanen ed. 2007:8; Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4686; Devlin 2005: 504; Raven 2009: 564; Wüstenhagen et al. 2007: 2683-2684). In line with these acknowledgements, this study will focus on the acceptance of solar power by the public and crucial stakeholders, termed ‘social acceptance’.

Despite the increasing attention for the role of societal factors in the successful transition to renewable energy, the existing literature about social acceptance is still at an early point of maturity (Wüstenhagen et al. 2007:2689). Research has so far mostly focused on the particular energy sources of wind energy and nuclear energy, and has been conducted largely in European and North American societies. Because many developments are recently taking place to employ solar power in countries in the Middle East there is an urgent need to broaden our understanding of social acceptance also to the specificities of solar power and to its particular context in Arab societies. This study therefore aims to explore three research gaps. First, this research attempts to contribute to the wider theory of social acceptance by adding together the relevant elements of the diverse literature on social acceptance by constructing a conceptual scheme that combines the suggested factors shaping social acceptance. Second, because most of the research into social acceptance has focused on wind and nuclear energy, this study will focus on a relatively understudied energy source in the social acceptance literature: solar power (Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4686; Wüstenhagen et al. 2007: 2690). And, third, this study is not, as most other studies, conducted in European or North American contexts, but conducted in Jordan, in the heart of the Middle East, where important steps towards large scale application of solar technologies are in the pipeline. As far as the author is aware, no research about social acceptance has been conducted in Jordan before.

1.3 Research question and thesis outline

In line with the outlined need to study the social acceptance of solar power, and to study this particularly in an Arab context where many solar projects are planned and can potentially generate large quantities of electricity, the aim of this research is to assess to what extent social acceptance of solar power has developed in Jordan, and to give an impression of the factors playing a role in the shaping of social acceptance. The research question which this study will accordingly answer is:

To what extent has a social acceptance of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy developed in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and which factors contribute to the explanation of this acceptance?

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To answer this research question the thesis is divided in seven more chapters. Chapter 2 will further elaborate on the concept of social acceptance, and will set the theoretical framework and conceptual scheme that will be used as the backbone of this study. Additionally, it will also pose the subquestions of this study by which the main research question will be answered. Subsequently, Chapter 3 will outline the operationalization of employed concepts, and presents the research methodologies by which the data was gathered to answer the presented research questions. Chapter 4 will give the necessary background on the Jordanian electricity sector, after which the Chapters 5, 6 and 7 will describe and analyze the results of this study. Chapter 5 will discuss the acceptance of solar power by actors professionally related to solar power, Chapter 6 will discuss the acceptance by the public and electricity consumers, and Chapter 7 will assess the local acceptance of particular planned solar projects in a case study in the town of Ma’an. Conclusions from these results will finally be drawn in the last chapter, Chapter 8.

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2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The existing literature on social acceptance provides the theoretical framework for this research. Because social acceptance is a relatively new concept in the energy transition literature,2 this chapter will explore its meanings and definitions, and will provide an overview of the explanatory factors pointed out by different authors, by combining these in a conceptual model. Although the concept is applied in the literature to a variety of different energy technologies, the conceptual model aims to facilitate the analysis of the social acceptance of solar technologies in particular, and therefore the discussion in this chapter concentrates on those aspects of social acceptance which are relevant for a research about photovoltaics (PV). Based on this conceptual model, finally, the research questions will be presented.

2.1 Defining social acceptance

Social acceptance is a broad concept that is increasingly used in connection with new energy technologies (Heiskanen ed. 2007: 19). The concept, however, is invoked in different research contexts, referring to different phenomena, often without being clearly defined (Heiskanen ed. 2007: 19; Wüstenhagen et al. 2007:2684). It is therefore important to first explore the meaning of social acceptance and related concepts, and to present the working definitions that will be used throughout this study.

2.1.1 What social acceptance means

Most of the literature on social acceptance stems from the practical policy literature in which clear definitions are rarely given or debated (Wüstenhagen et al. 2007: 2684), and consequently the concept lacks a widely agreed definition. Nevertheless, the understanding of social acceptance by various authors can to a large extent be reconstructed from their work, and Wüstenhagen et al. (2007) provide an overview thereof by summarizing the different understandings into what they call three dimensions of social acceptance: socio-political acceptance, community acceptance, and market acceptance. Heiskanen ed. (2007) introduce an equally comprehensive understanding in the context of the European Union funded ‘Create Acceptance’ Project, largely similar to the overview of Wüstenhagen et al., but subdividing socio-political acceptance to contribute to a fourth dimension. According to this latter definition societal acceptance exists when:

“- there is support for the technology among the expert community and national and local policy makers; - the general public has an informed and largely positive view of the technology;

- concrete applications do not meet significant obstacles from local policy-makers, residents, the NGO community or other representatives of social interest;

- when ordinary people, when the opportunity arises, are willing and prepared to adopt the applications in their own contexts and to support them with positive actions.” (Heiskanen ed. 2007: 19; Raven et al. 2009: 565)

2_{Although the concept of social acceptance was first introduced in the energy literature by Carlman in 1984, it remained} largely neglected in the 1980s and 1990s (Wüstenhagen et al. 2007: 2684).

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Because this inclusive definition distinguishes between the acceptance by different social groups and between different scales of application, the relevance of each of these aspects to different authors depends on the project or technology under study. When social acceptance is operationalized by different authors, they often tend to apply a smaller definition of social acceptance, studying a single aspect, or a mix of the abovementioned aspects, relevant to the project or technology under consideration (e.g. Erbil 2011 focuses on views of the general public; Gross 2007 studies the acceptance in local communities; and Yuan et al. 2011 focus on public awareness and consumer attitudes). Nevertheless, even though different authors highlight different aspects of what will be called the ‘Create Acceptance’ definition, there is an increasing consent that their understandings should be considered distinct dimensions of the same concept (e.g. in Mansini 2012: 37; Erbil 2011: 4501). The combination and organization of these understandings into a single definition of social acceptance, such as the ‘Create Acceptance’ definition presented above, contributes to academic theory building and is therefore a fruitful working definition of social acceptance for this research.

2.1.2 Issues of terminology

Besides a lack of clarity in the literature about the definition of social acceptance, also the used terminology can cause some confusion. In the energy transition literature one can read about ‘social acceptance’, ‘societal acceptance’, ‘community acceptance’, ‘public acceptance’, ‘local acceptance’, ‘public attitude’, ‘public opinion’, ‘stakeholder acceptance’ etc. The meaning of all these concepts is rarely explicitly defined or debated (Devine Wright 2007: 9). Some authors appear to understand these concepts as having all their own (slightly) separate meanings, while others use some of these terms interchangeably. Nevertheless, some general understandings can be reconstructed from the use of this terminology in the literature.

According to Heiskanen ed. (2007: 20), ‘social acceptance’ and ‘societal acceptance’ refer to the same concept, and can be used interchangeably. Some authors prefer the term ‘societal acceptance’ to grasp the notion of the involvement of multiple societal groups, but ‘social acceptance’ is becoming the most commonly used term and will therefore be applied in this thesis.

‘Public acceptance’ is a term lacking a coherent understanding (Devine-Wright 2007: 2), but can generally be understood to refer to an element of social acceptance, limited to a specific actor group: the general public. In the minimum understanding it refers to a general positive view by the general public of the technology in question, sometimes also referred to as a positive ‘public opinion’, or a positive ‘public attitude’. In a more comprehensive understanding public acceptance goes beyond a mere positive public opinion, as measured in opinion polls (Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4686), but should be complemented with a ‘public understanding’ or ‘public awareness’ of the technology and its impacts to create an informed opinion (as in the second criteria of the applied definition of social acceptance). In the third, less used, but most comprehensive understanding of public acceptance (e.g. in Mallett 2007), the term is even understood have an ‘active’ meaning, referring to the sum of the second and fourth criteria of the social acceptance definition used in this research (an informed positive opinion plus the adoption in one’s own context). In the context of this research, ‘public acceptance’ will refer to the second understanding: an informed positive opinion of the general public.

Where public acceptance still refers to the general acceptance of a technology to be applied ‘somewhere’, the terms ‘community acceptance’ and ‘local acceptance’ are usually employed to refer to the acceptance of the

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15 technology at a specific location, thus referring to the acceptance of the siting decision of a specific project by those affected ‘in their backyard’.3 Some authors use these terms interchangeably often without specifying the exact meanings, but others make a distinction in practice between the acceptance by local residents, usually termed ‘community acceptance’, and acceptance by a wider range of local stakeholders, including residents, but also the local government, NGOs, local businesses etc., which they term ‘local acceptance’. The latter term and corresponding meaning is the preferred term for this research.

2.2 A conceptual model

This study contributes to the theory of social acceptance by organizing the above described dimensions of social acceptance into a coherent framework. To build this conceptual framework it relies on the literature that studied the acceptance of energy technologies of different kinds and in different places, to draw from them the relevant factors that should be taken into account. The selection of these factors is based primarily on the relevance for the analysis of the social acceptance of solar energy.

Because the literature has so far paid little attention to the social acceptance of solar power, insights from these studies cannot provide the input for a comprehensive framework. One of the few studies into the social acceptance of solar power is conducted by Zoellner et al. (2008), who focused on the local acceptance dimension of social acceptance, and studied why PV ground-installed systems were successfully implemented in one region in Germany, but rejected in another.4 Additionally, Yuan et al. (2011) studied what can be understood as the consumer acceptance dimension of social acceptance in Shandong province in China, and found that application levels were low because of a lack of consumer awareness of PV. Although the data from both studies provides valuable input to the conceptual model built for this research, the two studies cover only two dimensions of social acceptance, and can only to limited extent inform expectations for the case of Jordan. To add to the few insights from the social acceptance literature on solar power, the conceptual model is also informed by the experiences with social acceptance in other energy technologies. Most research into social acceptance has focused on wind energy applications (e.g. Devlin 2005; Ek 2005; Ellis et al. 2007; Gross 2007; Jobert et al. 2007; and Wolsink 2000 and 2007a+b), and this literature is therefore an important source from which the model is developed. Additional literature on social acceptance is available in relation to the acceptance of biofuels, biomass, carbon dioxide storage, solar water heaters, and a number of comparative studies covering various energy innovations (e.g. van Alphen et al. 2007; Arkesteijn and Oerlemans 2005; Assefa and Frostell 2007; Devine-Wright 2007; Erbil 2011; Heiskanen ed. 2007; Huijts et al. 2007; Mallett 2007; Midden

3_{Despite the general use of the terms ‘local acceptance’ and ‘community acceptance’ to refer to the acceptance of a} specific project by its locality, some authors continue to use the term ‘public acceptance’ to refer to this phenomenon (e.g. Devlin 2005). This is a good example of the confusing use of terminology in the literature, displaying the lack of uniform and widely supported terminology and definitions in this relatively new field of study.

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This study of Zoellner et al. (2008) found that differences between the two regions were likely to explain the difference in acceptance: the image of the region (industrial/green), the level of agreement between stakeholders, the expressed commitment through community meetings, the location of the installation (whether other land uses were competing), participation of the general public, commitment of the operating company to the local community, and the role of the media.

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and Huijts 2009; Ozaki 2009; Raven et al. 2009; Sauter and Watson 2007; Savvanidou et al. 2010; Wegener and Kelly 2008; Zoellner et al. 2008; Zografakis et al. 2010).

The starting point of this model is the definition of social acceptance mentioned earlier (paragraph 2.1.1), as formulated by the Create Acceptance Project:

- The dimension: ‘support for the technology among the expert community and national and local policy makers’ is translated into the term ‘professional acceptance’, and refers to the acceptance by all actors professionally related to the implementation of solar energy, whether they play initiating or enabling roles. Relevant actors are policy makers, research institutes, academia, NGOs focusing on energy issues, businesses operating in the solar sector, and relevant lobby groups.

- The dimension: ‘the informed and largely positive view of the technology by the general public’ is translated into ‘public acceptance’, which is defined similarly for the purpose of this research.

- The dimension which states that ‘concrete applications should not meet significant obstacles from local policy-makers, residents, the NGO community or other representatives of social interest’ is translated into ‘local acceptance’. ‘Local acceptance’ in this model indicates that siting decisions of applications of the technology are generally accepted by all relevant actors at the local level in their ‘backyard’.

- The dimension of social acceptance: ‘when ordinary people, when the opportunity arises, are willing and prepared to adopt the applications in their own contexts and to support them with positive actions’ is translated into ‘consumer acceptance’. This consumer acceptance concerns the acceptance of individuals/households or other small consumers to buy the micro applications of the technology, maintain it, and to use it in their own context, as well as the acceptance of green electricity by power consumers. The just explained starting point of the model is represented in Figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1: Basic model of social acceptance of energy innovations SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE consumer acceptance public acceptance local acceptance professional acceptance

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17 This model is then further complemented by adding the factors, drawn from the literature, which can be expected to influence and shape the four dimensions. These represented factors may not be exhaustive, nor is for all factors clear what their relative importance is in different situations, as the academic understanding of social acceptance is still developing. However, this model aims to represent the relevant factors as they appear in the literature either from empirical studies, theoretical models, or researchers’ observations, and will be discussed in the following paragraphs.

2.2.1 Professional acceptance

Considerations relevant for professional acceptance generally involve a more comprehensive and systemic view of the issues at stake than most other dimensions of social acceptance. Professional acceptance of solar energy is influenced by the relative advantage of the technology compared to other energy technologies (Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4691). The cost of the initial investment that is needed to produce the new technology, to adjust the energy infrastructure to its use, and the price of each produced kWh of energy are of crucial importance to the acceptance of solar energy by professionals (Trieb et al. 2011: 307). Furthermore, the relative supply reliability is of special interest to experts and policy makers. Whether the technology can be used 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, and can supply energy when and where it is needed is an important consideration in the decision if and how to apply the technology (Al-Zou’bi 2010: 45). Also, the contribution of a technology to the diversification of energy sources, and towards an increased share of domestically produced energy can advance energy security by decreasing overdependence on one or few energy sources (and fluctuations in their price and availability), and on (unstable) foreign supplies (Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011:4694). Another part of the consideration is likely also the environmental friendliness of solar technology compared to other technologies, depending on the interests of the actor in environmental issues and the values attached to environmental quality and preservation (Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011:4694-4695; Wolsink 2007b: 2693-2695), and suitability of the technology for local circumstances such as the climate and geography (Wolsink 2007b:2693).

Also the perceived need of a transition to solar energy is important to the professional acceptance of its technology (Devlin 2005: 506; van Alphen et al. 2007: 4370). When things are working just fine, and can be expected to continue working fine in the future the willingness to consider new technologies can be expected to be much lower than when professional actors perceive energy security or climate sustainability to be at risk, and are thus urgently looking for appropriate alternatives.

Furthermore important is the expected impact of the technology on the economy and the environment. Are new jobs created, or old ones at risk? What will the impact be on energy prices, and thus on general price levels and competitiveness of the national economy and attractiveness as a business location? What is the impact on energy security and reliability, and what impact does this have on economic development? What is the expected impact on the environment? Are there only positive contributions limiting levels of pollution, or are there also new environmental risks involved? (Ellis et al. 2007: 527; Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011; Wolsink 2007b)

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2.2.2 Public acceptance

The same factors that influence professional acceptance are also important factors determining public acceptance, although the general public does not have the systemic view that most professionals have. The perceived relative advantage of the technology, and its perceived impact in terms of initial (public) investment costs, energy prices, employment opportunities, reliability and security of the energy supply, and its perceived environmental friendliness are important to a positive opinion by the general public; just as the perceived need influences the acceptance of possible negative impacts (Devlin 2005: 506; Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011; Wolsink 2007b: 2695-2696). An important difference between acceptance by professional actors, and by the general public, is that professional actors are highly knowledgeable about the technology and its possible risks and benefits, and can thus treat the technology quite rationally. For the general public, on the other hand, knowledge is only one of the factors of influence. The knowledge available to the public is often gathered through the media, usually from stakeholders and professionally involved actors such as the government, public figures and NGOs (Van Alphen et al. 2007: 4369). It may be difficult for lay men to select, understand, and process this complex information well and to form balanced views of the technology (Huijts et al. 2007: 2780). Small amounts of new information can thus still strongly influence non-informed opinions (Van Alphen et al. 2007: 4369). Even though research is inconclusive about the question whether increased knowledge leads to greater acceptance by the public (more information could reduce fear, but could also add displeasing information), a sufficient amount of knowledge is believed to contribute to more stable opinions (Huijts et al. 2007: 2788). An informed public opinion at one point in time can thus be taken as a more reliable predictor of future public acceptance than when opinions are largely uninformed and unstable (Van Alphen et al. 2007: 4369).

Because other factors also influence the opinions and attitudes of the public, public acceptance cannot be considered just a rational process that balances costs and benefits. What the public thinks is also partly rooted in cultural and ideological identities, and opinions are formed from a variable and interacting mix of influences and sources of information (Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4686). Alexandra Mallett (2007) confirmed this importance of culture in her study on the acceptance of solar water heaters in urban Mexico. Although the literature has so far diverted little attention to cultural aspects in which attitudes and behavior are rooted, she suggested that a low level of environmental awareness in Mexico was an important reason why social and moral motives for using a solar water heaters were lacking (Mallett 2007: 2793). This environmental awareness, along with the consciousness that human behavior can harm or preserve the environment, can be present to different degrees in different cultures, and will influence people’s motives for the acceptance of (re)new(able) energy technologies (Heiskanen ed. 2007: 81; Mallett 2007: 2793).

2.2.3 Local acceptance

The above described processes of general public acceptance are also relevant input for local acceptance, but become more specific. General costs and benefits for society at large now turn into tangible cost and benefits by which one is personally affected. Resulting cost-benefit calculations of individuals directly influenced by a project may turn out quite different than the general evaluation of cost and benefits at a societal level. Even though public opinion measured in Europe and the United States has seemed largely favorable towards the particular types of renewable energy, the actual local implementation thereof often faced local rejection. While

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19 some authors point to the ‘not in my backyard’ (NIMBY) syndrome5 as an explanation for this local opposition, other authors warn for the rhetorical use of NIMBY that serves as an ‘off the shelf’ pejorative label to undermine the legitimacy of opponents’ views (Haggett and Smith 2004 cited in Devine-Wright 2007: 9). It is now increasingly accepted that NIMBY has very limited explanatory value to explain local resistance (Devine-Wright 2005; Ek 2005: 1679-1680, Wolsink 1994, 2000, 2007a+b), and even the opposite reaction (PIMBY, ‘please in my backyard’) was found in some places (Van der Loo 2001 cited in Jobert et al. 2007: 2752), indicating that local resistance is more complex than the NIMBY hypothesis suggests. Gross (2007) summarizes some of these factors with the term ‘procedural justice’, indicating that people who feel that they have been treated fairly in the decision making process are more likely to accept the decisions resulting from the process (Gross 2007: 2730; Wolsink 2007b: 2700-2701). Important elements in procedural justice theory include the rights of participation, the involvement of all parties, access to adequate information, being treated with respect, lack of bias on the part of the decision-maker, and decisions that are responsive to information and correctable in the face of new information (Maguire & Lind 2003: 134 cited in Gross 2007: 2730; Zoellner et al. 2008: 4137). These fair procedures are more likely to lead to outcomes which are perceived to be ‘fair’, termed distributive justice. Especially the perceived distribution of impacts, in terms of local cost and benefits of the project, can be considered an important factor influencing local acceptance. People consider it unfair when the cost fall disproportionally on the region while the benefits only accrue to society at large, just as decisions that favor some people of the local community at the expense of others can cause a general feeling of unfairness that can result in opposition to the project (Gross 2007: 2727).

The balance of financial cost and benefits is considered one of the most important factors affecting feelings of distributive justice, also in the case of solar energy (Jobert et al. 2007: 2752; Zoellner et al. 2008: 4139). If the planned project is seen as a possible source of income by creating employment, or through local shareholder participation/local ownership of the project, this may increase the chances of local acceptance (Brunt and Spooner 1998, Devlin 2002, Maillebouis 2003, Morthorst 1999, Wolsink 2006 cited in Jobert et al. 2007: 2752; Ribeiro et al. 2011: 4364). However, a negative influence can be expected if incomes and jobs are at risk because of the project, e.g. when tourism as an important source of regional income is threatened by a loss of aesthetical quality of the landscape and perceived increased industrialization (Devlin 2005: 506, 508), or if the respective energy form is not considered to be cost effective (Zoellner et al. 2008: 4139). Other possible impacts mentioned in the literature that possibly affect the acceptance of a renewable energy project at the local level are related to the specificities of the technology like noise, glare, interference with local flora and fauna, risks of accidents, and the temporary inconveniences of noise and traffic in the construction phases (Chiabrando et al. 2009: 2445-2446; Devlin 2005: 504). The personal evaluation of all these potential cost and benefits contribute to the perceived fairness of the project.

Related to the perceived procedural and distributive justice is the factor of trust. Trust by the residents in the involved actors, as well as the trust of the involved actors in each other. In a simplified model of trust, used by Huijts et al. (2007: 2781) to study the social acceptance of carbon dioxide storage, the willingness of local

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The NIMBY (‘not in my bakcyard’) syndrome can be understood as a multi-person prisoner’s dilemma in which each individual pursues his/her self-interest and prefers to benefit from the common good (clean energy), but does not want contribute to it (Wolsink 2000: 51-52). Motivated by concern ‘for their backyard’, people, although supportive of the land use per se, would prefer the technology to be sighted elsewhere (Devine-Wright 2007: 9).

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residents to trust the professional actors depends on the perceived good intentions of the trustee (whether they are perceived to act in line with the interest of oneself) and the perceived competence of this trustee.6 This trust can partly be expected to be shaped during the planning and implementation process by events influencing perceived procedural and distributive justice (and previous experiences thereof), but there are also some a priori factors influencing trust. Relevant in this respect is the local integration of the developers (whether they are from inside or outside the region, and whether they are familiar with the area), the attitude towards foreign companies and investment, the type of investor/developer (studies in Spain suggest that small and medium enterprises and small investors enjoy wider trust from residents/the public than large multinational corporations and ‘venture capital’), and their commitment to and engagement in local affairs (Heiskanen ed. 2007: 84; Heras-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4693-4695; Jobert et al. 2007: 2752; Raven et al. 2009: 570; Zoellner 2008: 4139-4140). Also the position and expressed commitment or opposition towards the project by trusted actors (e.g. mayors) may influence the trust of residents in the other involved actors (Zoellner et al. 2008: 4138-4139).

Also the chosen location influences the local acceptance. Competing options for utilization of the chosen site (e.g. agriculture), and proximity to urban areas are possible sources of objection (Zoellner et al. 2008: 4138). Furthermore, the existing perception of the territory and the perceived impact of the project on this image of region may have its impact. Zoellner et al. (2008: 4138) report that in one of the regions where PV solar energy projects were implemented the region’s image as one of the worst environmentally polluted areas in Germany contributed to the acceptance of renewable energy because this project could contribute to a positive image change of the region. Besides this more general image of the region, also individual values attached to the siting location are reported to play a role (Wolsink 2007b: 2696): those who have a more utilitarian image of the countryside (e.g. farmers) are reported to be more positive towards changes within the landscape than those who maintain an untamed natural image of the countryside (e.g. urban residents who own summer property) (Devlin 2005: 508). As mentioned before, this image of the region, especially of its aesthetic quality, can also be a source of revenue for the region in the form of tourism, and thus have an economic value. In summary, local acceptance of renewable energy is thus obviously a result of a complex interaction between a project and its context (Heiskanen ed. 2007: 24).

2.2.4 Consumer acceptance

The final component of social acceptance, consumer acceptance, consists in the context of solar power of two distinct elements. Firstly, there is the direct consumer acceptance of the technology itself, referring to the willingness of consumers to purchase the technology and apply it in their own context; and secondly, there is the indirect acceptance by consumers, displayed by their willingness to purchase the produce of the technology

6

This study found that in the cities under study in the north-west of the Netherlands the trust of residents in various actors varies considerably. Environmental NGOs were trusted widely by the residents (both in terms of intentions and

competence), more than the government, and much more than industry (even though industry scored nearly as high on competence as the government, but much less on intensions) (Huijts et al. 2007: 2786).

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21 in the form of ‘green electricity’.7 It is worth noting that the latter form of consumer acceptance means that consumers can change to renewable energy without being actually involved in the physical generation, with the implication that the demand for renewable energy that such a switch entails does not necessarily correspond to the social acceptance to build the corresponding supply infrastructure (Wüstenhagen et al. 2007: 2685). The consumer acceptance of green electricity will thus have to match local acceptance, discussed above, in order to fulfill demand.

Both forms of consumer acceptance are largely influenced by the same factors, even though these factors will have their own workings for both forms. To start with the direct consumer acceptance of energy technologies in the form of the actual implementation of the technology in the consumer’s own context, consumer acceptance is influenced in the conceptual model by awareness, the relative advantage of the technology, and the triability and complexity of the technology. These factors are derived from the operationalization of Rogers’ stages model of technology adoption, among others used by Mallett (2007) to study market acceptance of solar water heaters in urban Mexico. In Rogers’ model consumers must first become aware of the technology and of the cost and benefits associated (which is confirmed also in the findings of Yuan et al. 2011). Whether the consumer will then be persuaded to adopt the technology is the result of a (conscious or subconscious) process of cost-benefit evaluation based on the relative advantage of the technology in terms of price, supply reliability, environmental friendliness (Yuan et al. 2011: 1035), and the applicability in the local climate. Other factors include the complexity of the technology (how well potential users are able to understand how the technology works and the principles behind it), and whether potential users can ‘try out’ the technology before fully committing to it (Mallett 2007: 2791). In her study, Mallett also pointed to two additional factors: culture and household income. Culture, and the associated social norms, will influence the extent to which people are conscious about the environment (influencing the perceived relative advantage of the technology), and the extent to which they worry about possible future problems (Ibidem: 2793). Furthermore, the adoption of a technology by consumers, even more so in a developing country context, is highly dependent on household income levels (Mallett 2007: 2795). Micro-applications will have to be very cheap (even if they have high returns) to be affordable for poor households, the majority of consumers in developing countries.

The indirect consumer acceptance of energy technologies, in the form of acceptance of green electricity, is largely influenced by the same factors as the direct consumer acceptance. The awareness that the green electricity is an existing product and that the way it is produced differs from the way in which conventional electricity is generated is an important factor influencing consumers (non-)decisions (Arkesteijn & Oerlemans 2005: 188). Although triability is not discussed in the literature concerning consumer acceptance of green electricity, the perceived complexity or ease of switching to green power and integrating this into daily practices is considered an important factor (Ibidem: 187, 193 Ozaki 2009: 9). Of course, the perceived relative advantage of the technology in terms of price, supply reliability and environmental friendliness is also an important consideration in the switching decision (Arkesteijn & Oerlemans 2005: 187-189; Ozaki 2009: 5). If consumers

7

Both forms of consumer acceptance are generally in the literature focused on household consumers. Also this study will follow this approach, acknowledging that large and medium consumers of electricity deserve to be studied in their own right. Because this study focuses on society, however, it appears reasonable to focus on average household consumers instead of industrial, agricultural or commercial users who’s considerations may differ substantially from the small household consumers.

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know, or think, that the price difference between ‘grey’ and ‘green’ power is high, that the chance of power failures is higher compared to conventional electricity, or that the environmental benefits of green power are few, the chance that they will adopt/accept green electricity can be expected to be lower. The extent to which consumers are willing to pay a premium for green electricity or to take a risk of unknown inconveniences also depends on the culture and its social norms. Especially the extent to which environmental concern has become a social norm appears to be important (Arkesteijn & Oerlemans 2005: 185, 187; Ozaki 2009: 8). Interesting in this regard is the reported correlation in some studies between having children and the importance which respondents attach to environmental sustainability (Erbil 2011: 4505). Finally, it is often assumed that household income is an important factor influencing the decision to opt for (more expensive) green electricity. However, Arkesteijn & Oerlemans (2005: 194) found in the Netherlands that income levels did not affect the decision to switch to green electricity, but that price perception and willingness to pay were stronger predictors. Nevertheless, it is very likely that in a developing country green electricity is not an issue of ‘budget priority’ as in the Netherlands, but of ‘budget availability’, and can thus be an influential factor.

The four dimensions of social acceptance, and the factors which are suggested in the literature as important to their explanation as discussed in the preceding paragraphs, can be summarized in one model. Figure 2.2 combines all discussed factors in a basic explanatory conceptual model of the social acceptance of energy innovations.

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23 Figure 2.2: Basic explanatory conceptual model of energy innovations

(Perceived) impact - economic * employment * economic development * energy bill - environmental

- energy reliability + security

(Perceived) need (Perceived) procedural + distributive justice Trust Knowledge Location - landscape

- competing land use - image of the region Culture

- environmental

awareness Household

(Perceived) relative advantage income technology

- price

- environmental

friendliness Triability & Awareness - supply reliability complexity of

- suitability for technology local climate and

geography

All the four dimensions of professional, public, local, and consumer acceptance, influenced by a range of different factors, together form the concept of social acceptance. This social acceptance is not static (Hears-Saizarbitoria et al. 2011: 4686-4690; Wolsink 2007b: 2698), but the result of a culturally and historically evolving process in which the different dimensions respond to broader societal and technological developments, and also influence each other. Technological applications which have first been resisted can thus gain second chances over time, or lose their support when experiences are negative or alternative techniques become available. While measurements of social acceptance thus only provide snapshots, it is even more important to understand the underlying processes which influence the development of social acceptance. This research will thus measure

SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE consumer acceptance public acceptance local acceptance professional acceptance

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the current level of social acceptance in order to give an indication of the current support for PV technologies in Jordan, but also intends to gain more insight in the underlying processes and influencing factors, which will contribute to the understanding of and anticipation to future developments.

2.3 Research questions

The preceding discussion of the factors influencing the different dimensions of social acceptance, and the presented explanatory conceptual model, are central to the answering of the main research question. Each of the four dimensions will be researched in the Jordanian context, and constitutes a separate subquestion to this research. The research questions central to this research are formulated as follows:

Main research question:

To what extent has a social acceptance of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy developed in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and which factors contribute to the explanation of this acceptance?

Subquestions:

1. To what extent do professional actors support or reject the deployment of PV solar energy in Jordan, and which factors contribute to the explanation of this support?

2. To what extent does general public support exist for solar energy, to what extent is this an informed opinion, and which factors contribute to the explanation of this support?

3. To what extent are consumers willing to accept PV solar power, and which factors contribute to the explanation of this acceptance?

a) To what extent are consumers willing to purchase solar panels and deploy them in their own contexts? b) To what extent do power consumers accept solar power in the energy mix they consume?

4. To what extent is the deployment of PV in Ma’an Development Area accepted locally, and which considerations are informing this support?

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3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

All primary data for this study was collected during a two month fieldwork period from the middle of April 2012 until the middle of June 2012, in the cities of Amman and Ma’an, Jordan. This chapter outlines the applied operationalization, describes the research methodologies and techniques which were employed to gather and analyze the relevant data, and discusses the challenges encountered during the data collection and their implications.

3.1 Operationalization

The operationalization of the four dimensions of social acceptance is displayed in Table 3.1. For an overview of the operationalization of independent factors see Appendix 2. The variables in both tables are operationalized qualitatively and quantitatively, and follow from the theory discussed in Chapter 2.

Table 3.1: Operationalization of the dimensions of social acceptance

Variable Operationalization Qualitative Professional acceptance Positive opinions Supportive actions

Open question in interview (e.g. ‘Do you think it is a good idea to employ PV solar panels in Jordan?’)

- open question in interview about own actions - open question in interview about actions of others

- document analysis (e.g. policy reports, project descriptions, newspaper articles) Quantitative Public acceptance Public support Knowledge: Self-rated knowledge Knowledge assessment

Mean score of:

- ‘producing electricity from the sun is a good idea’ (1-5) - ‘solar power should play an important role in the future’ (1-5) - ‘future generations will benefit if we use solar power’ (1-5) - ‘Jordan should invest in solar power projects’ (1-5)

‘I have knowledge about solar power’ (1-5) Total number of correct answers to: - level of pollution coal (1-3) - level of pollution wind (1-3) - level of pollution solar (1-3)

- level of pollution petroleum/oil/diesel (1-3) - level of pollution nuclear (1-3)

- level of pollution biomass (1-3) - level of pollution natural gas (1-3)

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Consumer acceptance

Purchase of solar panels: Willingness to consider purchase PV

Willingness to make

investment for financial gain

Green energy in electricity mix:

Willingness to use solar similar price

Willingness to use solar higher price

‘If you would have the chance, would you be willing to consider the purchase of PV solar panels?’ (Y/N)

‘If you could reduce your total spending on electricity by first installing solar panels of 1500 JD, would you want to purchase solar panels?’ (Y/N)

‘Would you be willing to use electricity from the sun if the price will be the same?’ (Y/N)

‘Would you be willing to use electricity from the sun if you would have to pay more?’ (Y/N)

Mixed: qualitative and quantitative Local

acceptance

Local support Quantitative:

‘All in all, do you support the building of solar projects in Ma’an Development Area?’ (1-3)

Qualitative:

Open question in interview (e.g. ‘Do you think it is a good idea to build solar projects in Ma’an?’)

3.2 Methodology and research techniques

This study employs a mixed methods approach for the data gathering on the four dimensions of social acceptance and the factors which may influence these. Qualitative methods served to facilitate the exploration of subjects relevant to the social acceptance of solar power in Jordan, and allowed for complex and contextual explanations of respondent’s experiences and opinions therewith. In addition, the qualitative information also proved helpful to interpret the gathered quantitative data, and to understand the implications thereof. These quantitative methods were employed to gain an impression of the opinions of larger groups of research respondents, which could most effectively be achieved by using closed standardized questions disseminated among a large number of respondents.

Because each subquestion of the research measures a distinct phenomenon, each of them requires its own methodological approach, as is summarized in Table 3.2. The employed research techniques are described below.

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27 Table 3.2: Research Methodologies and Techniques

Methodology Technique

Professional acceptance Qualitative: Interviews Documents

Semi-structured in-depth interviews Actor analysis

Document analysis Public acceptance Quantitative:

Survey research Questionnaire Consumer acceptance Quantitative:

Survey research Questionnaire

Local acceptance Mixed:

Case study research Semi-structured in-depth interviews Questionnaire

Open elaborative street interviews

3.2.1 Semi-structured interviews

An important part of the primary data was collected through semi-structured interviews. This method was chosen as one of the core research techniques because the exploratory nature of this study requires a research setting in which there is room for detailed and system wide descriptions and explanations, including the opportunity to discuss unanticipated subjects brought up by the respondents. The open approach of semi-structured interviews provides this space. Furthermore, this method was applied mostly with professional respondents in high positions in the public or private sector where semi-structured interviews appear to the most time-efficient and informative research method. This is consistent with Russel’s (2002: 209-210) argument that semi-structured interviews can be best used with elite members of a society who are relatively accustomed to efficient use of their time, and when there is likely not more than one chance to interview an informant. Also, this methodology appears to be suitable in formal settings, in which most interviews were conducted.

Sampling

Respondents of the semi-structured interviews were selected based on purposeful selection. Relevant institutions, organizations, and companies were identified and approached through the network (and with the recommendation) of the University of Jordan. At the same time, a targeted snowball sampling method was employed, starting from the initial contacts gained through the university, and from the network of the cooperating SaafConsult company.8 In this method each interviewee was asked if they could provide any additional contacts of informants they would recommend speaking to, either in a specified field of affiliation, or in their general position as knowledgeable informant about the solar sector. This technique ensured that as many stakeholders and interests possible were included in the research. This method proved successful as by taking advantage of someone’s personal connections, and by appealing to the culture of Arab hospitality towards foreigners, it provided access to a network of experts, officials and business people, who would have been hard to approach without the recommendation of respected interviewees. In later stages of the research

8_{The company SaafConsult BV is a consultancy company with expertise in the field of water and the environment (see:} www.saafconsult.com). The company has built up a network in Jordan among various stakeholders in the energy business, and was willing to introduce the author to a number of important respondents.

Social acceptance of solar power in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan : an exploration of the level and sources of societal support for PV