The Geopolitical Economy of Uranium and Oil Resources in Niger: the Case of China National Nuclear Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation

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The Geopolitical Economy of Uranium and Oil Resources in

Niger: the Case of China National Nuclear Corporation and

China National Petroleum Corporation.

Source: Asfouri (2019)

MSc Political Science (Political Economy track) Thesis Research Project: The Political Economy of Energy The University of Amsterdam, Graduate School of Social Sciences

June 5, 2020 Author: D. B. (Didier) Rwema 10697632 Supervisor: Dr. M. P. (Mehdi) Amineh Second Reader: Dr. J. M. (Juliette) Alenda-Demoutiez

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Acknowledgments

I would first like to express my profound gratitude to my professor and thesis advisor Dr. M. P. Amineh. You have been a formidable mentor and have challenged me in ways I never expected. Thanks to your tireless and engaged spirit, I have not only written my thesis but enjoyed the process and experienced academic growth. Moreover, I am greatly indebted to my family, who has supported me through this academic journey so far without a shred of doubt. I could not have achieved this without your unconditional love and support. Last but certainly not least, I am grateful for Sommer's unwavering support in the last couple of months. You are the bedrock of my thesis. You have given me the strength and motivation to give it all and have faith. I am immensely fortunate to have you by my side.

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Abstract

This thesis studies the geopolitical economic impact of the activities of China National Nuclear Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation in Niger in the context of China's external energy policies between 2000 and 2020. We aim to understand the challenges of Sino-Nigerien energy relations. To do this, we start by researching China's energy security to understand the aim of its external energy policies. Then we explore trade investment and finance flows between China, Africa, and Niger to understand how this relationship has evolved since 2000. We follow by analyzing political ties between China and Niger, and the Nigerien uranium and oil industries. Finally, we analyze the geopolitical configuration of Niger and the region, including the actors impacted by and impacting the Chinese presence in the region. Our research has found that increased Chinese involvement in Niger, through its national energy companies, slightly heightened China's energy security while providing substantial economic benefits to Chinese companies, to the detriment of French geopolitical interest in Niger and West Africa. China is increasing its geopolitical economic power in Niger and the West-African region and, as a consequence facing tension and competition in the region. In addition to a substantial infrastructure deficit in the region, Chinese companies face high insecurity, putting the billions of US$ invested in the region at risk.

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Maps

Political map of Niger

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Political map of West Africa

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Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure map of 2018

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List of Tables and Figures

Tables

3.1 Sectoral share of Chinese FDI in Africa 2013-2017 p. 40

3.2 Nigerien Mine Production. 2011-2020 p. 42

3.3 Nigerien oil Production (Thousand barrel per day). 2011-2020 p. 44 3.4 Top 3 Nigerien Oil export destinations compared to China 2010-2018 p. 45 3.5 Official committed Chinese investments in Niger 2000-2019 p. 48 3.6 Construction contracts accorded to Chinese companies in Niger 2000-2019 p. 48 3.7 Chinese concessional loan to Niger for the extraction of uranium p. 49

3.8 Shareholders of Société des Mines d’Azelik p. 50

3.9 Shareholders of Société de Raffinage de Zinder p. 53

3.10 Chinese concessional loan to Niger for the extraction of oil. p. 53

4.1 Shareholders of Orano p. 68

4.2 Orano’s equity shares across the world in 2019 p. 69

4.3 Shareholders of the COMINAK, Imouraren S.A., and SOMAIR mines. p. 69 4.4 Position of France and China in export from CFA States, 1970-2018 p. 71 4.5 Position of France and China in the import of CFA States, 1970-2018 p. 72

Figures

2.1 Six historical phases of the People's Republic of China's energy strategy p. 19 2.2 Total energy consumption of China, the US and France 1965-2017 p. 21

2.3 China's energy mix in 2018 p. 21

2.4 Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption 1965-2017 p. 22

2.5 China's coal consumption and production 1965-2017 p. 23

2.6 China's energy intensity level 2000-2014 P. 23

2.7 Proven oil reserves 1980-2018 P. 24

2.8 China's oil Production, Consumption and External Dependency 1992-2018 p. 24

2.9 China's electricity consumption 1973-2019 p. 25

2.10 Nuclear energy as a share of China's electricity mix 1993-2017 p. 25

2.11 China's electricity generation by source in 2018 p. 26

2.12 China's uranium production, demand, and dependency 2007-2015 p. 26 2.13 Nuclear energy consumption of top 3 consuming states in 2018. 1993-2018 p. 26

2.14 China's energy consumption by sector in 2017 p. 27

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2.16 China’s oil industry power network p. 32 3.1 Share of African oil in Chinese oil import. 1995-2018 p. 36

3.2 Total Chinese Oil Import from Africa. 2000-2018 p. 36

3.3 Share of African uranium in China's uranium imports. 2000-2018 p. 37 3.4 Top 5 Importers of African uranium in 2001 compared to China. 2001-2019 p. 37

3.5 Top 5 Importers of African oil in 2001. 2001-2019 p. 38

3.6 Top 5 exporters to Sub-Sahara Africa in 2000 compared to China. 2000-2018 p. 38 3.7 Top 3 FDI stock states in Africa compared to China. 2009-2017 p. 39

3.8 Chinese FDI stock in Africa. 2003-2017 p. 39

3.9 Total amount of Chinese loans accorded to Africa per year. 2000-2017 p. 40 3.10 Disbursed loans to Africa by the World Bank compared to China. 2000-2016 p. 41 3.11 Top three sectors in Africa receiving official Chinese loans. 2000-2016 p. 41 3.12 Top five global uranium-producing states. 2009-2018 p. 43 3.13 Nigerien Oil Production, Consumption, and Import Dependence. 2006-2019 p. 45 3.14 Top five largest states Niger imports from in 2001. 2001-2018 p. 46

3.15 Nigerien import value from China. 2001-2018 p. 46

3.16 Top five Nigerien export destinations in 2001 compared to China. 2001-2018 p. 46

3.17 Nigerien export value to China. 2001-2018 p. 47

3.18 Nigerien Balance of Payment 2000-2017 p. 47

3.19 Chinese FDI stock in Niger. 2003-2017 p. 48

3.20 Global consumption of uranium compared to global demand. 1949-2017 p. 50 3.21 Estimated amount of uranium mined by SOMINA in Niger p. 51

3.22 Annual average uranium price. 2000-2020 p. 52

3.23 Nigerien annual GDP growth. 2000-2018 p. 54

3.24 Average annual Brent oil spot prices. 1987-2018 p. 55

3.25 China’s loan cycle in Niger p. 56

4.1 Projected annual costs to achieve UN SDG 2015-2030 p. 60 4.2 Total EU humanitarian assistance to G5 Sahel states between 2014 and 2020 p. 66 4.3 French nuclear energy consumption compared to China. 1970-2018 p. 67

4.4 French electricity mix by share. 2000-2018 p. 67

4.5 French electricity consumption per share by sector. 2000-2017 p. 67 4.6 EU uranium import dependency per share of the source. 2000-2018 p. 69

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List of Abbreviations

AFD Agence Française de Développement

AU African Union

BRI The Belt and Road Initiative CCP Communist Party of China

CEA Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux énergies

CGNPC China General Nuclear Power Corporation CNNC China National Nuclear Corporation CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation COMINAK La Compagnie des mines d'Akouta

EU European Union

Exim Bank Export-Import Bank of China

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

FOCAC Forum on China-Africa Cooperation

FYP Five Year Plan

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse Gas

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

IMF International Monetary Fund

IR International Relations

MIIT Ministry of Industries and Information Technology Mtoe Megaton of oil equivalent

MTU Metric Ton Uranium

NCDR National Commission for Development and Reform NDTI Bureau of the National Defense Technology and Industry NEA National Energy Administration

NOC National Oil Companies

NPP Nuclear Power Plant

ORANEM Office National des Ressources Minières du Niger

SDG Sustainable Development Goals Sino-U China Uranium Corporation Limited SOMAIR Société des mines de l'Aïr

SOMINA Société des Mines D'Azelik

SONIDEP Société Nigérienne des Produits Pétroliers

SOPAMIN Société du Patrimoine des Mines du Niger

SORAZ Société de Raffinage de Zinder

tU Ton Uranium

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Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1. Objectives, Time Frame, Social Entities, and Actors.

The objective of this research is to analyze the activities of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) in the Nigerien energy sector between 2000 and 2020. We will seek to gain an understanding of The Peoples Republic of China's (henceforth referred to as China) energy situation. An understanding of China's energy policy and the relationship between CNNC, CNPC, and the Chinese government will help us understand why CNNC and CNPC go abroad and how they play a role in China’s energy security. This thesis will seek to understand how CNPC and CNNC operate in Niger and their impact on the region

By studying trade, finance, and investment flows between China and Niger within 2000 and 2020, this research wants to gain an understanding of the Sino-Nigerien economic relations. The trade flows will indicate the nature of their trade relationship. The finance flows will give us an understanding of how Chinese financing supports the activities of its national energy companies. Then, the investment flows will help us understand the strategic aims of China in Niger by analyzing the specific sectors in Niger receiving Chinese investments.

This thesis aims to study the geopolitical, economic impact of the activities of Chinese national energy companies in Nigerien energy resources. It intends to understand the challenges of Sino-Nigerien energy relations. We will do so through the study of the geopolitical and economic dimensions of Niger's uranium and oil resources in the region.

Our focus shall be the uranium and oil resources of Niger and their three largest shareholders, respectively the Nigerien, French and Chinese governments through their national energy companies.

The timeframe considered for this thesis is from 2000 to 2020. We chose this timeframe because starting in 2000, China’s energy consumption saw exponential growth, reaching an increase of 223% in 2018 compared to 2000 consumption levels. Subsequently, Chinese national energy companies only started to explore Nigerien energy (oil) resources in 2003, gained extraction rights (oil and uranium) in 2007, and are still fully engaged in Niger. As recently as August 5, 2019, China has signed an agreement with Niger and Benin to build an oil pipeline joining Nigerien oil to the African coast to increase the export capacity of Nigerien oil. By choosing this timeframe, we can include the run-up leading CNNC and CNPC to access

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Chapter 1. Introduction Nigerien uranium and oil resources to this day. Not all the data for our chosen timeframe is available; however, we will use the most recent and complete data we can find. We will consider the Niger as the geographical focus out this research.

The actors considered for our research are on three distinct levels. Firstly, at the government level. The three major shareholders of Nigerien uranium and oil resources are all state-owned companies. Subsequently, the governments of Niger, China, and France are considered as the most important actors financing and directly or indirectly defining the priorities of their state-owned energy companies in Niger. Secondly, the institutional level, containing multilateral organizations and public institutions in which Nigerien energy resources play a role. For this level, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation through which the Nigerien and Chinese government enhance cooperation in all sectors, including energy resources (FOCAC, 2015a & 2015b). The Belt and Road Initiative through which the Nigerien and Chinese governments are stimulating policy coordination since Niger joined in 2019. The G5 Sahel is an organization aiming to provide stability, security, and sustainable development in the region. Niger is a member of the G5 Sahel. China contributes to their efforts to stabilize and reduce the terrorist threat in the region, thus adding a political dimension to their relationship. Insecurity has directly hit extractors of Nigerien energy resources and thus forms a threat to the Nigerien energy industries. The third and last level is the national energy companies active in Nigerien uranium and oil resources. The companies considered in this thesis are CNNC (Chinese), CNPC (Chinese), Orano (French), SONIDEP (Nigerien), and SOPAMIN (Nigerien).

1.2. Social Relevance

The topic under study is of great importance as it represents a shift of influence. Through trade, investment, and finance in resource-rich African states, China, a centralized state of which the market actors are part and parcel of the state, is gaining influence. An influence previously held exclusively by liberal states who have been heavily involved in the region since the colonial era. The dimension added by China is the fact that a centralized state is intensifying energy relations with Niger, a centralized state as well. It opens the door to new types of relationships, both states issuing their power top-down without a strong and independent civil society or business groups. It is a source of debate among many politicians, academics, and journalists. Chinese involvements in African energy industries are characterized as being the new scramble for Africa or neo-colonialism to south-south cooperation on equal terms, and win-win deals.

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Chapter 1. Introduction China. No state appears to be overtly coerced into these partnerships. Our research contributes to the debate by interpreting the situation through a geopolitical economic lens by exploring the geopolitical economic consequences of the increasing presence of China in Niger, a resource-rich African state. Niger is an excellent example considering it was the first uranium exporter to the EU in 2016 and has been in the top five throughout this millennium. France depends on nuclear energy for more than 70% of its electricity and is by far the biggest extractor of Nigerien uranium. Competition for the Nigerien uranium resources directly impacts France and Europe’s energy security.

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Chapter 1. Introduction

1.3.

Research Question

What are the geopolitical economic challenges for Niger's uranium and oil resources in the context of China's national energy companies?

In addition to our research question, sub-questions have been formulated and will each be treated in chapters of this thesis:

1. What is China's current energy situation, and energy policy in relation to its consumption and energy security?

We will answer this sub-question in two steps. Firstly, China's energy mix, reserves, consumption, production, import, and export will be assessed. Then China's domestic and foreign energy policy will be assessed by analyzing China's 'Five-Year Plans', the 'energy production and consumption revolution strategy 2016-2030' (2016), and The International Energy Agency's report on the Power Sector Reform in China An International Perspective (2018).

2. Which policies is China employing regarding nuclear energy and oil security?

We will answer this sub-question through the analysis of the Chinese 'Medium-term and long-term development of the nuclear energy program (2005-2020)', Basu and Miroshniks' (2019) book: 'The Political Economy of Nuclear Energy', and the 'Diversification Strategy on Energy Supply'. This data will enable us to understand China's policies and prospects regarding nuclear energy and oil security.

3. How did China's national energy companies gain access to Niger’s national energy industries?

This question shall be answered by reviewing existing contracts, investments, financing, and other related activities of Chinese state-owned companies in Niger. Moreover, we will assess their interaction in Niger with the government, subsidiaries, and corporations.

4. What are the geopolitical economic consequences of China’s power projection in Niger and the region?

This subquestion shall be answered through the analysis of the geopolitical economy of -Nigerien energy resources in the context of the increased ownership of -Nigerien energy resources by CNNC and CNPC. With the presence of Chinese energy companies in Niger, China is facing and Nigerien national and regional established economic and political forces. To answer this question, we will explore the political and economic impact of the

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1.4. Literature Review

Niger has the sixth-largest uranium reserves in the world and the third-largest in Africa, behind Namibia and South Africa. Moreover, Niger has the eleventh largest oil reserves in Sub-Sahara Africa. Niger is thus an energy resource-rich state. This literature review shall assess the current scholarly debate surrounding the rise of China's activities in Niger with a focus on China's national energy companies. The activities of Chinese national energy companies in Nigerien uranium and oil industries only started at the beginning of the 2000s and started extracting resources in 2011. Their presence and activities in Niger evolve at a fast pace. The current literature regarding the activities of Chinese national energy companies in Niger is thus very limited in time and scope.

The literature mainly treats three distinct consequences of the presence of Chinese national energy companies in Nigerien energy resource industries. First, they claim an improved negotiation position of Niger in regards to uranium resources as more companies gain extraction rights (Cabestan, 2018: 596; Grégoire, 2011: 2 & 16). Secondly, the Nigerien uranium industry has made Niger a rentier state suffering from a resource curse. The oil extraction by Chinese national oil companies risks deepening the resource curse due to the same institutional failures and public mismanagement (Goumandakoye, 2016: 365; Volberding and Warner, 2018: 300). Finally, contrary to the rentier state and resource curse theories, some claim that the potential of Nigerien energy resources depends on the resource assemblages and social construct and that theories of resources curse and rentier states are too simplified and not accurate enough to describe the emergence of Chinese national energy companies in Niger (Schritt, 2016a: 248; Schritt, 2018a: 267-268; Schritt, 2016b: 53; Schritt, 2018b: 664-665; Schritt & Witte, 2018: 446-447).

This literature review will elaborate on the three scholarly streams of thought treating the activities of Chinese national energy companies in Niger, evaluate their arguments, and conclude with the contribution this thesis brings to the scholarly debate.

1.4.1. Competitivity of Nigerien uranium resources

Cabestan (2018) argues that the arrival of Chinese national energy companies in Niger has improved the Nigerien negotiation position. China’s successful integration in the Nigerien energy industry would have brought visible competition between traditional partners to Niger and China. Niger would intend to benefit from the Chinese presence and further diversification of its energy resource industries (Cabestan, 2018: 597 & 610-611).

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Chapter 1. Introduction Grégoire (2011) furthers this argument by claiming that the emergence of China as the second trading partner of Niger, behind the former colonial power (France), is challenging the French hegemony over Niger. China ended the monopoly of Areva, the French national uranium company, through higher bids. Chinese national energy companies would have transformed the Nigerien uranium industry from a monopoly to an oligopoly (Grégoire, 2011: 2 & 16).

Volberding and Warner (2018), however, argue that the complexity of the uranium industry is the primary reason for Nigerien limited negotiation capacity and can only improve by increased technical knowledge of the international bureaucracy. In their view, the presence of CNNC would only have a marginal effect on the Nigerien uranium industry (Volberding & Warner, 2018: 300).

1.4.2. Increasing resource curse

Volberding and Warner (2018), argue that Niger suffers from a resource curse. The resource curse theory was developed in the 1950s. According to the theory, states suffering from a resource curse are heavily dependent on the export of primary commodities and natural resources for their gross domestic product (GDP). Their economies are heavily exposed to risks due to changes in global demand, causing price fluctuations. Other sectors of their economies suffer insufficient investments due to inflationary effects caused by primary commodities. Inflation in this context damages economic development in the long run. This effect is called

Dutch disease (Volberding and Warner, 2018: 295-296).

Volberding and Warner (2018) specify that Niger’s uranium resource curse includes a heavy debt burden due to price fluctuations. The Dutch disease worsened domestic inequality. Moreover, the Nigerien economy led to institutional failures. Niger suffers from political elitism with insufficient checks and balances, resulting in deep-rooted corruption (Ibidem: 296).

In relation to international energy companies, Volberding and Warner (2018) argue that Niger’s uranium resource curse has led the state into an asymmetric relationship with multinational corporations. Especially Areva, the French state-owned nuclear company and CNNC, the Chinese state-owned nuclear company. It is now subsequently the case for Niger’s oil resources and with CNCP, China's national oil company (Ibidem: 297).

Goumandakoye (2016) brings caution to this argument by stating that it is too early to decide if the Nigerien oil industry will further the resource curse Niger suffers from through its uranium resources. Goumandakoye (2016) does state that the risks are genuine with Niger’s oil

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Chapter 1. Introduction only stimulates consumption. According to Goumandakoye (2016), without knowledge transmission from China’s national oil company to Nigerien citizens, escaping the resources curse would remain virtually impossible (Goumandakoye, 2016: 364-365).

1.4.3. Nigerien uranium and oil assemblage

Schritt (2016a, 2016b, 2018a, 2018b) and Schritt and Witte (2018) argue that the presence of Chinese national energy companies in Nigerien uranium and oil industries can not be reduced to the deepening of the resource curse, nor a change in competitivity of Nigerien energy resources. Schritt (2016b) argues that Niger’s incapacity to benefit from its uranium industry is not caused by the resource curse but by the French interest since the colonial era. Nigerien independence had been connected to military and economic agreements to secure French energy security. Thus, Chinese economic involvement in Niger could not directly change this French-Nigerien assemblage of the French-Nigerien uranium industry. France did not intend to create linkages between the Nigerien uranium industry and the Nigerien economy but simply extract Nigerien resources for its energy security. Thus, the Nigerien uranium sector became an “enclave economy” (Schritt, 2016b: 43; Schritt, 2016a: 235; Schritt, 2018a: 265).

Schritt (2016a) argues that for Nigerien oil resources, China’s national oil company, contrary to western energy companies, has created multiple linkages. These linkages offered Niger the opportunity to benefit from the use of its resources. Linkages were created through the retention of a part of the oil for national consumption, the upstream and downstream of the production chain in Niger and the numerous actors benefiting directly or indirectly of the oil industry, resulting in social claims and resource nationalism (Schritt, 2016a: 242 & 248).

According to Schritt (2018a), CNPC’s extraction of Nigerien oil created linkages through oil increased oil consumption, created thousands of infrastructure jobs, and hundreds of new locally owned businesses in transport, fuel, retail, construction, and service, making the oil sector the largest employer in Niger. These developments constituted increased soft power for China in Niger, a contrast to the neo-colonial stigma France is suffering from as former colonial power in Niger (Schritt, 2018a: 265-266; Schritt, 2016b: 46-48; Schritt & Witte, 2018: 433).

All these linkages, according to Schritt (2018b), resulted in Nigerien oil nationalism. Oil became a national good, and took a central place in public discourse, leading to union strikes, media attention, and public debates. It is a dimension never attained by uranium due to insufficient linkages (Schritt, 2018b: 663-665).

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1.4.4. The gap in the literature

The brief literature review has offered us insights into the scholarly debate surrounding the impact of the arrival of Chinese national energy companies in Nigerien uranium and oil industries. They debated potential positive and negative impacts on the Nigerien political class, citizens, and businesses. However, the current scholarly debate lacks insights into the motivation of Chinese national energy companies' involvement in Niger, their dependence or independence from the Chinese government, and their challenges in the region. They do not make any distinction between China’s, CNNC’s, or CNPC’s geopolitical or geoeconomic aims. All aims are treated as one. The process of securing access to Nigerien energy resources and concrete economic and political gains or losses for China are not explored. Nor is there any attention given to the consequences for and reactions of major shareholders of Nigerien energy resources facing the arrival of Chinese national energy companies in Niger.

Our research aims to fill this lacuna and further the scholarly debate by adding these dimensions to our understanding of the activities of Chinese national energy companies in Niger.

1.5. Delineation of the Research

This research shall limit its focus to uranium and oil as energy resources. Regarding policy, this research shall focus on China’s foreign energy policies, as overarching policies that have led China's national energy companies into Niger. The Nigerien uranium and oil industries will be explored, including the major shareholders and subsidiaries stemming from the Nigerien, Chinese, and French state-owned energy companies. The geopolitical economic dimensions of trade, investment, and financial links between China and Niger and the challenges for Nigerien energy resources will be taken into account.

1.6. Theoretical Framework

This thesis has the objective to analyze the activities of China's National energy companies, CNNC, and CNPC in Niger and their geopolitical economic consequences. We have chosen to approach our research with an International Political Economy lens. Inspired by Critical Geopolitics in International Relations (IR), we employ the International Political Economy (IPE) theory of Geopolitical Economy to explore the geopolitical economy of Nigerien uranium and oil resources in the context of CNNC and CNPC’s activities in Niger.

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1.6.1. Critical Theory

IPE comprises three grand theories: Economic Liberalism, Economic Nationalism, and Critical Theory.

Economic Liberalism, much like Liberalism in International Relations (IR), views economic markets as a positive-sum game. In their view, markets are comprised of rational actors who are seeking to achieve mutual gains. They view market actors as independent from state actors (O'Brian and Williams, 2016: 12).

Economic Nationalism, on the other hand, much like Realism in IR, conceptualizes market actors as tools employed by states in their quest for power. In their view, the state is independent, and the market is dependent on the state. However, both are different actors with different functions. They view the economy as a zero-sum game. They conceptualize the state as the only actor in an anarchical international system with the sole aim of survival by increasing its power by increasing its market share (Ibidem: 10).

Lastly, Critical Theory, much like Marxism in IR, understands the economy as the result of a class struggle, thus inequality. They view the economy within the international system as a zero-sum game. In this sense, the market, defined as the capitalist class, dominates the international system instead of individual market actors seeking mutual gains or individual states seeking survival (Ibidem: 16-18).

This study will make use of Critical Theory. Economic Liberalism is not suitable for our research, given that in China and Niger, states are heavily involved in their economies. Economic Nationalism would be more appropriate but misses the dimension of economic actors and their cross-border activities as it views the state as the sole actor in the international order. Therefore, Critical Theory helps us to emphasize and understand the role of Chinese national energy companies in Niger.

1.6.2. Critical Geopolitics

Inspired by IR Critical Geopolitics theories, our research will apply the IPE theory of Geopolitical Economy (Houweling & Amineh, 2003; Amineh & Guang; 2017, Amineh & Guang, 2014; Amineh & Guang, 2018).

Critical geopolitics, in IR, comes forth out of the failure of structural realism to explain the defeat of major military powers without confrontation as what happened with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Critical geopolitics considers ideas of self as social forces impacting one's behavior. However, critical geopolitics is not identical to liberalism. In contrast to liberalism and structural realism, critical geopolitics considers the state-market complex as the unit of

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Chapter 1. Introduction analysis in international politics. State-market complexes are comprised of institutionalized state-military-business relations per state, adding a particular dimension by making the unit of analysis geographically bound. Critical geopolitics is built on the belief that humans' understanding of reality is a combination of a broad social construct and one's behavior. In doing so, critical geopolitics acknowledge the co-existence of global social processes and humans' understanding of reality. Thus, one’s understanding of reality is only partially endogenous and partially a result of an exogenous social reality.

Critical geopolitics views cross border activities of state-market complexes as power projections. Power projections occur when actors leave their domestic state-market complex and venture outside their borders to accumulate capital and/or secure strategic political interest. They are thus attempting to control spaces outside the limits of their borders in a specific period in time to secure specific interests. Power projections by state-market complexes subsequently change the world order as they reroute channels of capital, resources, and social constructions, directly impacting existing configurations in place (Houweling & Amineh, 2003: 315-331).

For our research, we want to understand the specific interest and impact of China’s national energy companies, as part and parcel of China’s state-market complex, beyond its borders in Nigerien energy industries between the period of 2000 and 2020.

1.6.3. Geopolitical Economy

In our research, we aim to connect critical geopolitics to IPE through the use of the theory of geopolitical economy. This theory connects geopolitics to geoeconomy by combining the territorial scope of states with the geoeconomic dimensions, capital/markets. Subsequently, in order to understand the geopolitical economy of Nigerien uranium and oil resources in the context of China’s national energy companies, we need to gain an understanding of the economic, diplomatic, and security relations between China and Niger.

The geopolitical economy acknowledges two interacting logics in cross-border activities, together shaping foreign policy and international relations. The theory distinguishes a geoeconomic (capitalist) and geopolitical (territorial) logic. The capitalist logic of accumulating power through wealth creation changes territorial configurations. It has occurred throughout history with major industrial powers (among which, The United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and the US). These cross-border expansions of capital (trade, investment, and finance) attempt to solve fundamental dimensions of capital, the need to continually find new markets and geographical spaces to allocate surplus capital and production. The geoeconomic

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Chapter 1. Introduction production, either through diplomacy or military power. These activities are understood as being power projections (Amineh & Yang, 2014: 504-506; Amineh & Yang, 2018: 24-6).

1.6.4. The Geopolitical Economy of Energy

Our research will focus on mineral energy sources. They are the literal and figurative fuel driving modern industrialized economies. This thesis shall define energy security as "[...] the availability of energy in various forms, in sufficient quantities, and at reasonable and/or affordable prices at all times, without unacceptable or irreversible impacts on the environment" (Amineh & Guang, 2017: 17).

China's immediate geopolitical focus is its rapidly increasing dependence on energy imports to match its energy demand. Energy is crucial to sustaining economic growth pushed by industrialization and urbanization. According to Amineh and Guang (2018), this situation puts China at risk of resource scarcity. Socio-economic factors push for economic expansion beyond China's borders to sustain economic growth and secure energy resources (Amineh & Guang, 2018: 22). Energy resources are not only essential for industrial activities. Moreover, transport, health, education, and food are all heavily reliant on energy.

Amineh and Guang (2018) distinguish three kinds of energy scarcities:

Demand-induced, supply-Demand-induced, and structural scarcity. Demand-induced scarcity is a type of scarcity

that is caused by three things: population growth in high consuming states, rising per capita income in industrialized and industrializing economies, and the price changing price of alternative energy sources. In this context, rising demand is pushing the need for the securitization of more energy sources. Supply-induced scarcity is related to demand-induced scarcity. However, supply-induced scarcity occurs when the supply of a specific energy resource reduces or is expected to reduce considerably, forcing dependent states to find solutions to cover their constant energy demand. Structural scarcity occurs when producer cartels, major industrialized powers, and influential national energy companies purposefully induce supply scarcity by controlling considerable amounts of energy sources, affecting the market and availability of these resources (Amineh & Guang, 2018: 15-17). For our research, we will mainly focus on the two first types of energy scarcities.

How the state-market complexes secure these crucial resources are distinguished in two ideal types: the 'liberal state-market complexes' and the 'centralized state-market complexes'. Both ideal types are parts of a spectrum and should not be seen as opposites (Amineh & Guang, 2017: 12). The liberal state-market complex ideal type is characterized by a distinct state class and an independent market class. In this context, the market remains independent from the state,

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Chapter 1. Introduction and the state class depends on the market class for its income (taxes) and strategic energy resources to sustain its power-wealth structure. The centralized state-market complex is characterized by a strong centralized government dictating policy to the market actors. The market in this context has no or minimal influence over policy matters and is part and parcel of the state power. In this context, critical economic actors are usually nationalized to enable top-down development and serve as tools to secure state interests (Ibidem: 11-13).

China can be characterized as a centralized state-market complex. Formally the National People's Congress is China's supreme power organ. The Communist Party of China (CCP) is the ruling party, and the Politburo Standing Committee and the Party Secretariat hold all the power. Leading members of the Party-State and key economic sectors make up China’s inner circle of power. It enables China to steer a top-down development.

1.7. Hypothesis

The current scholarly debate argues that CNNC and CNPCs activities in Niger change the Nigerien mineral and fossil energy resource market. Chinese national energy companies aim to secure energy resources to sustain China's rapid economic growth, thus securing China’s geopolitical interest abroad.

As a result, thereof, we shall extract the following hypotheses:

H1: The activities of CNNC and CNPC in Niger improved China's geopolitical economic

interest in Niger.

H1-0: The activities of CNNC and CNPC in Niger did not improve China's geopolitical

economic interest in Niger.

H2: China’s power projection is transforming Nigerien domestic and regional configurations

and subsequently increasing China’s power in the region.

H2-0: China’s power projection is not transforming Nigerien domestic and regional

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1.8. Argumentation and Operationalizing 1.8.1. Argumentation

First, the Chinese domestic situation will be assessed. A deep understanding of the Chinese state-market complex and the role of its national energy companies, CNNC, and CNPC will be gained. It will be shown that centralized policy decisions leading to its rapid economic growth have caused energy supply security issues in China. These issues force Chinese National energy companies to seek energy resources abroad. We argue that the national energy companies are part and parcel of the state and seek both geoeconomic and geopolitical goals in Niger. The second argument explores the mechanisms employed by CNNC and CNPC in Nigerien uranium and oil resources to secure geoeconomic goals. We shall review trade, investment, and finance activities to uncover these aims. Then we shall explore the diplomatic activities conducted by the Chinese state to improve interest in Niger and the region.

Finally, the geopolitical economic consequences of Chinese activities in Niger shall be analyzed in the context of uranium and oil resources. This dimension shall be researched through the analysis of the power projection of major actors active in the region, their reactive discourse, and measures employed parallel to or as reactions to Chinese involvement in the region.

1.8.2. Operationalization

To operationalize the concepts of geopolitical economy, resource scarcity, energy security, and power projection:

China’s fast industrialization has caused immense capital and production surplus, increasing its energy consumption faster than its domestic energy production. Sustaining sufficient and secure access to energy resources is the bedrock of China’s wealth-power structure and detrimental to China’s future. Through the analysis of China’s domestic energy consumption, production, energy policies, and the role of CNNC and CNPC as national energy companies, we will uncover China’s energy resource scarcity and the policies employed to increase China’s energy security.

By uncovering the trade, investment, and finance flows between China and Niger, we aim to operationalize the dimensions of the energy relation between China and Niger. Finance regards to the funds allocated to enable energy extraction. Investments refer to the development of capacities to extract Nigerien energy resources. Finally, trade refers to the cross-border flows of resources and capital between China and Niger. The analysis of the nature of all these international flows will allow us to depict the importance of Nigerien mineral resources for

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Chapter 1. Introduction China’s energy security and the contribution trade, investment, and finance deliver. We will analyze this through the activities of the Communist Party of China, National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration,CNNP as the owner of Sino Uranium, CNPC as the owner of CNPC-NIGER-PETROLEUM S.A. and Exim Bank, all part and parcel of the Chinese state-market complex.

Lastly, Niger and the Sahel region, of which Niger is part of, have continuously been centers of heated conflict in the past decade. We will examine the security relation and policy coordination between China and Niger and the power projection of other major states active in Niger and the Sahel region. Mainly France has been active through military operations in the region. The Sahel region hosts more active French military officers than any other region in the world. The Chinese power projection in the region either pushes for cooperation in the same geographical space or parallel operations if China decides to engage its military forces to secure its energy supply security. We will analyze how this dynamic unfolds.

1.9. Methodology – Data Collection and Data Analysis.

The methodology of this research shall be a qualitative case study. The case study shall focus on the activities of CNNC and CNPC in Nigerien uranium and oil resources. We shall start with the analysis of China's energy situation using the following key resources: BP (2019); John Hopkins SAIS China Africa Research (2019); Gruin (2016); Brødsgaard (2012); International Energy Agency (2018a & 2018b); and Yi-Chong (2011). These resources will offer us insights into China’s energy security, China’s strategy to increase its energy security, and the role of CNNC and CNPC in this process. Relevant peer-reviewed articles and primary sources will complement these essential resources.

The aid, trade, investment, and finance activities from Chinese market actors in Niger and Africa will be assessed through the data from Johns Hopkins University SAIS China-Africa Research Initiative (2019), UNCTAD (2020), the International Monetary Fund (2020), the Energy Information Administration (2020), and the World Bank (2020). This analysis will enable us to understand the temporal, sectoral, and quantitative dimensions of Chinese economic ties in Niger and Africa. Africa is added in our scope to understand the relative importance of China’s relation with Niger and how it relates to the whole continent.

Then to understand Nigerien uranium and oil industry, peer-reviewed works of Volberding and Warner (2017 & 2018), Schritt (2016 & 2018), Keenan (2008), Goumandakoye (2016), and Cabestan (2018) will be consulted. These peer-reviewed articles will provide us

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Chapter 1. Introduction with the insight we need to understand the configuration between the Nigerien state and its oil and uranium industries.

To understand the geopolitical economic impact of the Chinese power projection in Niger and the region, an analysis of the stakeholders with the most significant economic and political interests in and impact on Nigerien energy resources will be explored. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will be analyzed and put in the context of China’s interest in Africa and Niger. To achieve this goal, we will use primary information retrieved from Xinhua, the Chinese state-run press agency, from the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs, and insights from peer-reviewed articles to reflect the current scholarly debate (Ikenberry & Lim, 2017; Summers, 2020; Demiryol, 2019; Clarke, 2017; Rolland, 2017; Yunus, 2018). The geopolitical configuration in Niger and the region shall be analyzed through three main themes: the G5 Sahel, terrorism, and development coordination. The themes will be explored through news articles from the New York Times, the Guardian and Aljazeera, and primary data from the G5 Sahel and the Sahel Alliance. Finally, French power projection in Niger and the region will be explored through Orano’s (2020) economic interest in Niger, as the largest foreign (French) shareholder of Nigerien uranium resources. The interest of the French government as former colonial power of Niger and many West African states and the largest foreign military power in Niger and the Sahel will be assessed. French policy documents, uranium industry reports, and statements of French officials will be assessed.

1.10. Organization of the Thesis

After the introduction, the second chapter will explore China's national energy policy and energy supply security. It will serve as the link between China's domestic energy situation and the context of the cross-border activities of CNNC and CNPC in the world to secure energy and seek capital accumulation.

Chapter three shall be the case study of China's involvement in Niger's energy markets. The chapter will start with an analysis of Chinese trade, investment, and financial activities in Africa between 2000 and 2018. An assessment of the importance of African oil and uranium resources will be made to understand the role of Africa in China's energy security. Following this analysis, the Nigerien uranium and oil industries will be explored to understand their role and importance for Niger. China's trade, investment, and finance links with Niger will then be assessed to understand the evolution of Sino-Nigerien relations. After this assessment, the activities of CNNC and CNPC in Nigerien energy industries will be evaluated to understand

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Chapter 1. Introduction how they gained access to Nigerien resources, their cooperation with Nigerien actors, and the result of their activities.

Chapter four will assess the geopolitical economic impact of China’s power projection in Niger and the Sahel region. The chapter will evaluate the importance of Nigerien energy resources for its largest stakeholders impacted by China’s power projection in the region. The BRI will be reviewed in the context of China’s interest in Africa and Niger. The current scholarly debate regarding the BRI shall subsequently be explored. Following this, the geopolitical configuration in Niger and the region will be examined. France's power projection in the region shall be assessed as a former colonial power and a major stakeholder in Nigerien uranium resources and policies to understand the regional configuration.

A conclusion of the challenges for Nigerien uranium and oil resources shall be given in the last chapter through the testing of the hypotheses and answering our research question.

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Chapter 2 China's National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy

2.1. Introduction

This chapter will serve two distinct purposes. First, we will aim to gain a greater understanding of China's energy situation. For this, we will use China's energy mix, energy import, and per capita consumption. These indicators will enable us to discuss China's import supply security. China's import supply security situation will help us understand the structure and aim of China's national energy policy strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the role of China's state-owned companies China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNCP).

This chapter shall attempt to answer the following two sub-questions: What is China's

current national energy situation, and energy policy in relation to its consumption and energy security? And which policies is China employing regarding nuclear energy and oil security?

Following this section, section 2.2 will explore China's national energy situation, its production, consumption, and the evolution of its external energy dependency. With a gained understanding of China's energy situation, section 2.3 will explore China's import supply security to understand the importance of uranium and oil for China's energy security and which Chinese sectors are most dependent on overseas energy resources. Section 2.4 will explore China's national energy policies and the role of China's national energy companies in its strategies. Sections 2.5 and 2.6 will each explore China's uranium and oil policies and the role of its national uranium and petroleum companies. Finally, section 2.7 shall provide a brief conclusion of this chapter.

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy

2.2. National Energy Situation Related to Consumers and Companies

This section will start by exploring China's energy situation and how it has impacted its consumers and companies. We will assess China's production, consumption, reserves, and imports. In addition to this, we will present the different policies employed by China to face its energy challenges and their results.

Figure 2.1: Six historical phases of the People's Republic of China's energy strategy

Source: Zhang, Sovacool, Ren, and Ely (2017: 635).

Since China's founding by Mao in 1949 to this day, China has been through six distinct phases of energy strategy, as can be seen in figure 2.1 (Zhang, Sovacool, Ren, & Ely, 2017: 635).

The first period ranges from 1949 to 1956. It marks the emergence of political and social chaos in times of war. It focused on building the economy and industrial infrastructure. The Ministry of Fuel and Industry was responsible for the realization of these goals. This phase saw the first Chinese Five-Year Plan (FYP) in 1953. Laying the socio-economic objectives of the state for five consecutive years, the first FYP resulted in an exponential economic growth in the context of a centralized planned economy. The consumption of coal subsequently rose to be the primary source of China's energy mix. Energy production doubled between 1952 and 1957, reaching 69.02 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), of which 46.2 Mtoe coal (Ibidem: 635-636).

The second period between 1957 and 1965 was marked as the socialist construction. The economic planning professionalized, and the government planned all the critical aspects of the economy. State-owned companies became the main economic tools to accomplish this and subsequently accounted for more than 70% of national investments and loans. This approach drastically improved China's productivity, export, life expectancy, education, income, and employment. China made efforts to enhance resource explorations and production capacity, increasing coal and oil capacity (Ibidem: 636-634).

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy The third period between 1966 and 1978 is marked as turbulence. The Cultural Revolution occurred and pushed energy productions across China as a measure to reduce the risk of having energy production concentrated in one region, risking disruption from foreign military interventions. Massive investments in resource exploration, extraction, and infrastructure to guarantee a stable flow of energy resources. These efforts have led to the most diversified energy mix in China's history, with coal being 'only' 69,4% of its mix and oil peaking at 23,8% (Ibidem: 636).

The period of reform, between 1978 and 2000 is marked by the settling in of the Communist Party of China (CCP) after the transition from the Cultural Revolution. The priority was economic development, and reforms aiming at the opening of the planned economy took place. These reforms had for aim to include the benefits of a market economy and remove the inefficiencies of a planned economy. State-owned companies gained autonomy, access to private investments, and saw the rise of many small non-state-owned companies and decentralization measures, thus reducing the governments' grip on the economy. Attempts were made to further diversify China's energy mix by the development of nuclear, hydro, and renewable power in addition to legislation aiming at more energy efficiency and electrification of the economy in rural areas. China's energy production in this phase has doubled, starting

from 439.4 Million tons of oil equivalent

(Mtoe) to 945 Mtoe. Despite this rise in energy production, China saw itself become a net energy importer due to an imbalance between the increase in energy production and rise in energy consumption (Ibidem: 636-637; International Energy Agency, 2018a: 22; Brødsgaard, 2012: 626-628; Yao & Chang, 2015: 133).

The fifth period was between 2001 and 2014. During this period of contestation, the Chinese economy expanded exponentially, increasing its energy consumption by 150% and making China the largest energy-consuming state in the world in 2009, surpassing the US (Figure 2.2). This economic rise resulted in a 60% oil import dependency. In addition, coal production rose to the point of becoming 40% of the world's coal production. This rise in fossil resource consumption, production, and dependency came forth with the wish to reduce environmental degradation. This predicament pushed investments in cleaner forms of energy resources and increasing energy efficiency. These measures created more friction and competition between Chinese national energy companies, lobbying for their respective interests (Zhang et al., 2017: 639-640).

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy Figure 2.2: Total energy consumption of China, the US and France 1965-20181

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2019). Data collected by the author.

The final and current phase, according to Zhang et al. (2017), is the transition phase. This phase represents the transition from fossil resources, of which mainly coal, on which the economy is built towards renewable and clean energy sources to peak its CO2 emissions in 2030 (Ibidem: 640). This phase is the context of China's national energy situation. China is putting great efforts in reducing coal from its energy mix, currently still by far the largest share (Figure 2.3).

Figure 2.3: China's energy mix in 2018

1_{China is compared to France because China broke French monopoly over Nigerien energy resources and The}

Oil 20% Natural Gas 8% Coal 58% Nuclear energy 2% Hydro electric 8% Renew- ables 4% -500,0 1000,0 1500,0 2000,0 2500,0 3000,0 3500,0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Mto e US China France

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy China is currently engaging in global energy markets due to several central aspects of its economy. First, because of the improved domestic energy supply, per capita energy consumption has surpassed the global average in 2009, decreasing urban and rural disparities through a significant increase in access to energy. However, China's per capita energy consumption is still far from major industrialized states like France. The relatively low per capita energy consumption indicates that China's energy consumption is set to rise enormously as China's per capita income rises to the level of the major industrialized states (International Energy Agency, 2016: 19; Figure 2.4).

Figure 2.4: Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption 1965-20172

Second, due to China's aim of energy mix diversification to increase its energy security and decrease the share of high GHG emitting energy sources, the percentage of coal is to decline in favor of other cleaner energy sources (Figure 2.5; International Energy Agency, 2016: 20).

Finally, the reduction of coal and diversification in its energy mix has a dual goal. Not only is China reducing coal to reduce GHG emission, but its energy dependency also grew due to a higher increase in consumption compared to its production. Despite a dramatic decline in energy intensity (energy consumption per GDP level: due to energy efficiency measures, in 2000 to 2014 China's energy intensity level improved by almost 60%), China has become import-dependent for its energy (International Energy Agency, 2016: 20; Figure 2.6). This tendency indicates that increasing energy efficiency cannot solve China's energy import dependency issues in the medium term, considering the fast pace at which China's economy is

-50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 G igajo u le p er cap ita

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy growing and the relatively low per capita energy consumption compared to other major industrialized states.

Figure 2.5: China's coal consumption and production 1965-2017

Figure 2.6: China's energy intensity level 2000-2014

Source: International Energy Agency (2016).

2.3. Import Supply Security

Given the rising importance of China's supply security for its economic growth and to sustain the current socio-economic gains, it is essential to focus on China's import supply security. In the context of this thesis, we will concentrate on China's oil and uranium supply security, as those are the resources China is extracting in Niger.

China's energy dependency on oil imports is the second-worst compared to other energy sources right behind uranium. As the most significant energy consumer, producer, oil importer, and GHG emitter in the world in 2014, China consumed 14% of globally produced oil while only yielding 4.2% (BP, 2019). China's capacity to increase domestic production to meet its energy demand is limited, as China only holds 1.5% of proven global oil reserves (Figure 2.7).

-500,0 1000,0 1500,0 2000,0 2500,0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Mto e

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy China's oil import dependency has risen from 50.5% in 2008 to 70,5% in 2018, despite state targets aiming to limit it to 62% (O'Sullivan, 2019; Figure 2.8).

Looking at the sectoral division of oil consumption in China, we can observe that the transport sector is overly dependent on oil consumption. Its dependence rose from 71% in 1990 to 91% in 2013. For the industry, however, the dependence on oil is only 7% in 2013. It means that the mobility of Chinese products and people are almost entirely dependent on oil (Dong, Sun, Li, & Jiang, 2017: 217-219). All in all, this outlook increases the importance for China to gain access to oil resources outside of its geographical borders, considering its constant rising oil consumption.

Figure 2.7: Proven Oil Reserves 1980-2018

Figure 2.8: China's Oil Production, Consumption and External Dependency 1992-2018

Nuclear energy is seen as a clean alternative to mainly high GHG emitting fossil fuels

13,4 13,3 13,3 14,9 16,4 17,1 17,2 17,4 17,3 16,1 16,0 15,5 15,2 16,4 16,3 16,4 16 ,4 17,0 17,4 15,1 15,2 15,4 15,5 15,5 18,3 18,2 20,2 20,8 21,2 21,6 23,3 23,7 24,4 24,7 25,2 25,6 25,7 25,9 25,9 683,9 696,5 725,6 737,7 774,6 802,1 907,0 938,5 1026,4 1026,5 1027,0 1099,8 1104,9 1103,6 1116,9 1125,0 1147 ,6 11 61 ,0 1141,2 1280,2 1299,8 1306,4 1356,2 1363,4 1370,1 1376,7 1388,4 1425,0 1493,8 1535,4 1641,5 1677,6 1687,3 1694,1 1697,2 1684,3 1691,6 17₂₇ ,5 17 29 ,7 -200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1000,0 1200,0 1400,0 1600,0 1800,0 2000,0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Th o u san d mil lion b ar re ls

China Total World

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Mto e

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy growing electricity consumption (Figures 2.9). Consequently, Nuclear energy had risen from 1% of China's electricity mix in 2000 to 4,2% in 2018 (Figure. 2.10 & Figure 2.11). This rise has led China's import dependence on uranium for its nuclear energy to be the worst compared to all other energy sources. The import dependency rose from 50% in 2007 to nearly 80% in 2015 due to the rise in consumption of nuclear energy (Figure 2.12). Due to the size of China's demography, the 4,2% share of uranium in China's electricity mix makes china the third-largest uranium consuming state in the world (International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020; Figure, 2.13). The main direct impact of insufficient electricity supply will be on China's industry, as the primary energy-consuming sector in China (Figure 2.14). With demand set to at least double in 2030 compared to 2018, China's access to a stable supply of uranium is of great geopolitical importance (Chen, Xing, & Du, 2017: 642).

Figure 2.9: China's electricity consumption 1973-2019

Sources: International Energy Agency (2018b) & Statista (2020). Data collected by the author.

Figure 2.10: Nuclear energy as a share of China's electricity mix 1993-2017

Source: International Atomic Energy Agency (2019). Data collected by the author. 155,2 276,3 579,7 1253,7 3937,7 5548,3 5898,9 6307,7 6840 7225,5 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1973 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mto e 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1993 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy Figure 2.11: China's electricity generation by source in 2018

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2019) & Statista (2020a). Data collected by the author.

Figure 2.12: China's uranium production, demand, and dependency 2007-2015

Source: Chen, Xing & Du (2017).

Figure 2.13: Nuclear energy consumption of top 3 consuming states in 2018. 1993-2018

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. Data collected by the author.

-50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 Mto e China US France 20% 8% 58% 2% 8% 4% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear energy Hydro electric Renewables

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Chapter 2. China’s National Uranium and Fossil Energy Policy Figure 2.14: China's energy consumption by sector in 2017

Source: Statista (2020b). Data collected by the author.

2.4. National Energy Policy Strategy and the Role of National Energy Companies

Considering the pressing and urgent energy supply security risks China is facing, it is essential to understand its policy to address these risks and the role of the national energy companies in this endeavor. China's national energy policy has evolved from self-reliance to an energy revolution, propelling China to the heart of the global energy markets. China's national energy policy started as an attachment to energy development and other policies. It evolved towards being part and parcel of China's FYPs and has now transformed into being a full-fledged energy strategy called Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy 2016-2030 (Zhao, 2019: 245; China Nuclear Energy Association, 2017: 7-8; Lee, 2012: 80-81).

During these transitions, China's energy policy has evolved from centralized to marketized, self-sufficient to dependent, and from concentrated to diversified. Despite the current challenges in fulfilling its energy demand, China is pushing for a radical and fast pace energy source diversification while simultaneously improving its energy supply security. It is the state of the current Chinese national energy policy (Ibidem: 245; Wei, 2016: 9)

The energy production and consumption revolution was first proposed in the National Congress report of the CCP in 2012. Xi Jinping (China's president) advanced five guiding pillars on which the energy production and consumption revolutions should be built.

Firstly, he stated that China should promote the energy consumption revolution and improve energy-efficient consumption by gaining a grip on the national consumption.

Secondly, China should promote the energy supply revolution by putting in place a diversified supply chain to improve energy security and move away from coal in China's energy mix. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Industry Households Transport, Logistics, Mail

Other Sectors Wholesale and Retail, Hotels and Catering Business Agriculture, Forestry, Fischery, Construction Mto e

The Geopolitical Economy of Uranium and Oil Resources in Niger: the Case of China National Nuclear Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation