How South African universities can contribute to preparing the future workforce for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

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by

Lizette Wessels

Thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Higher Education in the Faculty of Education

at Stellenbosch University

Supervisor: Prof Magda Fourie-Malherbe

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DECLARATION

By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification.

March 2020

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ABSTRACT

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0) is a complex phenomenon. Its transformative nature holds implications for South African universities, graduate employability and the workplace. Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, automation and digital technology, amongst others, have already transformed the world of work. Consequently, mismatches between graduate skills and workplace requirements have emerged which exacerbate the already high levels of unemployment in South Africa. Universities that do not adapt to the speed of innovation will become obsolete. As far as its core function, teaching and learning is concerned, a radical reconsideration of current curricula and pedagogy will be required, including the technological enhancement of teaching and learning practices. This begs the question as to how the key functions of South African universities, particularly those related to teaching and learning, should be transformed to better prepare the future workforce for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The aim of this study was to undertake a scoping review to explore this question in more depth, presenting possible scenarios of change to be considered. Linked to the above, the sub-objectives that informed the study related to determining the role of South African universities in preparing the future workforce. Furthermore, I attempted to review, analyse and identify key themes from the scoping review results, in order to summarise and group findings together. The exploration of the literature and published research on innovative teaching and learning practices was focused on finding ways of better preparing and equipping students with the required skills for future jobs in the Industry 4.0 workplace. The results were used for developing conceptual models as a representation of the findings deriving from the scoping review. These models could inform transformation and innovation relevant to South African universities, particularly teaching and learning, to better prepare the future workforce for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

This is a non-empirical study that integrated the human capital theory as theoretical framework. The adoption of the interpretivist paradigm was largely aimed at exploring and making sense of the Fourth Industrial Revolution phenomenon. Within the interpretive paradigm, the study followed an exploratory qualitative approach. The primary research method for this study was a scoping review which formed the basis for the development of two conceptual models. The main focus of the scoping review was on gaining a comprehensive understanding of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the implications thereof for South African universities, with specific reference to teaching and learning as one of the core functions of a university. A protocol with predefined search strategies and terms was used to search publishers’ databases for relevant resources. Development of the

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conceptual models commenced after conducting a broad review of literature by consulting peer-reviewed journal articles, books/monographs, conference papers and other relevant resources, to identify and outline the core concepts and possible relationships in the different models.

The result of this study could point to developing better practices towards equipping students with the required skills, thus improving graduates’ future success in the Industry 4.0 workplace. The conceptual models and findings provide a transformation roadmap - giving direction in preparing the future workforce and initiating a new University 4.0.

Key words:

Fourth Industrial Revolution; 4th_{Industrial Revolution; Industry 4.0; Universities; University 4.0;} Higher education; Teaching and Learning; Skills; Skills 4.0

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OPSOMMING

Die Vierde Industriële Revolusie (Nywerheid 4.0) is 'n komplekse fenomeen. Die transformerende aard daarvan hou implikasies in vir Suid-Afrikaanse universiteite, studente en die werksplek. Kunsmatige intelligensie, masjienleer, outomatisering en digitale tegnologie, onder andere, het die wêreld van werk verander. Gevolglik het wanverhoudings tussen gegradueerdes se vaardighede en werkplekvereistes ontstaan, wat die reeds hoë vlakke van werkloosheid in Suid-Afrika vererger. Universiteite wat nie aanpas by die spoed van innovasie nie, sal in die toekoms nie meer relevant wees nie. Wat die universiteit se kernfunksie, onderrig en leer, betref, sal 'n radikale hersiening van huidige kurrikulums en pedagogie nodig wees, insluitende die tegnologiese verryking van onderrig- en leerpraktyke. Die vraag is dus hoe die sleutelfunksies van Suid-Afrikaanse universiteite, veral dié wat verband hou met onderrig en leer, getransformeer sal moet word om die toekomstige werksmag vir die Vierde Industriële Revolusie beter toe te rus en voor te berei.

Die doel van hierdie studie is dus om 'n omvangsbepaling te onderneem om hierdie vraag in meer diepte te ondersoek en moontlike scenario's van verandering voor te stel. Gekoppel aan bogenoemde, hou die subdoelwitte wat die studie onderskryf verband met die bepaling van die rol van Suid-Afrikaanse universiteite in die voorbereiding van die toekomstige werksmag. Addisioneel is daar gefokus op die ontleding en identifisering van sleutel-temas en -terme om die bevindings saam te vat en te groepeer. Die eksplorasie van die navorsingstudies en meer spesifiek navorsing oor innoverende onderrig- en leerpraktyke is gemik op die ontdekking van nuwe innoverende maniere om studente beter voor te berei en toe te rus met die nodige vaardighede vir toekomstige werksgeleenthede in die Industrie 4.0 werkplek. Die resultate is gebruik vir die ontwikkeling van konseptuele modelle wat as 'n skematiese voorstelling van die bevindinge wat voortspruit uit die omvangsbepaling, dien. Hierdie modelle kan transformasie en innovasie wat relevant is vir Suid-Afrikaanse universiteite, veral ten opsigte van onderrig en leer, inlig om hulle toe te rus om die toekomstige werksmag vir die Vierde Industriële Revolusie beter voor te berei.

Hierdie nie-empiriese studie het die menslike kapitaalteorie as teoretiese raamwerk gebruik. Die studie is gedoen binne 'n interpretivistiese paradigma aangesien dit hoofsaaklik daarop gerig is om die Vierde Industriële Revolusie-verskynsel te ondersoek en beter te verstaan. Binne die interpretatiewe paradigma het die studie 'n verkennende kwalitatiewe benadering gevolg. Die primêre navorsingsmetode vir hierdie studie was 'n kwalitatiewe bestek-oorsig wat die basis gevorm het vir die ontwikkeling van twee konseptuele modelle. Die hoof-fokus van die omvangsbepaling-resensie was om 'n omvattende begrip van die Vierde Industriële Revolusie en

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die implikasies daarvan vir Suid-Afrikaanse universiteite, met spesifieke verwysing na onderrig en leer, as een van die kernfunksies te ontwikkel. 'n Protokol met voorafbepaalde soekstrategieë en terme is gebruik om as riglyn te dien vir soektogte na relevante studies op uitgewersdatabasisse. Die ontwikkeling van die konseptuele modelle is gebaseer op die analise en interpretasie na 'n breë oorsig van die beskikbare navorsingstudies bestaande uit tydskrifartikels, boeke/monografieë, konferensie verrigtinge en ander relevante bronne gedoen is. Daar is gepoog om die kernbegrippe en moontlike verhoudings in die verskillende modelle te identifiseer, illustreer en te omskryf.

Die resultate en bevindinge van hierdie studie kan ‘n bydrae lewer tot die ontwikkeling en daarstelling van innoverende en verbeterde praktyke om studente met die nodige vaardighede toe te rus, en sodoende die sukses van gegradueerdes se indiensnemings mootlikhede in die toekomstige Vierde Industriële Revolusie werkplek verbeter. Die konseptuele modelle en bevindings bied 'n transformerende padkaart en kan as 'n rigtingaanwysing dien ter voorbereiding van die toekomstige werksmag en die inisiëring van 'n nuwe Universiteit 4.0.

Sleutelwoorde:

Vierde Industriële Revolusie; 4de Industriële Revolusie; Nywerheid 4.0; Universiteite; Universiteit 4.0; Hoër onderwys; Onderrig en leer; Vaardighede; Vaardighede 4.0

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This Master’s journey has reached its goal. My dream has become a reality.

I would like to extend my sincere gratitude and appreciation to each of the following: My supervisor, Professor Magda Fourie-Malherbe, for her endless support, guidance,

expertise and continued encouragement: Thank you for believing in me.

My appreciation is extended to Professor Eli Bitzer and Professor Liezel Frick: Thank you for granting me the opportunity to enrol in this life-changing journey.

My husband, Braam and son, Zander: Thank you for your motivation to follow my dream and for supporting me every step of the way.

My family, friends and colleagues: Thank you for your unwavering support, faith in me and words of encouragement.

Finally, my deepest gratitude to the Master of All.

“NEVER STOP DREAMING, NEVER STOP BELIEVING,

NEVER GIVE UP, NEVER STOP TRYING,

AND

NEVER STOP LEARNING”. - Roy T. Bennett

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 2.1: Research objectives, methods and data sources ... 22

TABLE 3.1: Bibliographic databases, descriptions and platforms ... 31

TABLE 3.2: Inclusion and exclusion criteria explained ... 39

TABLE 5.1: Seven technological development categories, description and relevance to teaching

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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1.1: Learning new skills with every new industrial revolution ... 2

FIGURE 2.1: The three-sided human development pyramid ... 16

FIGURE 2.2: Main research question and subsidiary research questions of this study ... 21

FIGURE 2.3: Six step guide to thematic analysis ... 24

FIGURE 3.1: Google trends worldwide last 5 years web search ... 33

FIGURE 3.2: Google trends South Africa last 5 years web search ... 34

FIGURE 3.3: Conceptualisation of combined search terms ... 36

FIGURE 3.4: PRISMA flow chart showing scoping review results ... 41

FIGURE 3.5: Bibliographic databases utilised for this study according to percentages of sources42 FIGURE 3.6: Country of origin of contributing authors ... 43

FIGURE 3.7: Number of studies that were released per year ... 44

FIGURE 3.8: Type of study included in the scoping review ... 45

FIGURE 3.9: Prominent author keywords in scoping review studies ... 46

FIGURE 4.1: Country profile: South Africa ... 54

FIGURE 4.2: Future workplace impacted by robots and big data ... 58

FIGURE 4.3: Demographics of South Africa, Germany, Brazil and the UK, 2015 and 2035 ... 59

FIGURE 4.4: Top 10 future careers ... 62

FIGURE 4.5: A typology of knowledge workers in the 4IR ... 66

FIGURE 4.6: 2022 Skills outlook ... 68

FIGURE 5.1: The six stages of digital transformation ... 73

FIGURE 5.2: Timeline of important developments in technology for HE ... 75

FIGURE 5.3: Triple helix model of innovation ... 80

FIGURE 5.4: Schematic representation of the proposed macro conceptual model ... 81

FIGURE 5.5: Fourth Industrial Revolution dynamics model ... 85

FIGURE 5.6: Model for HE innovation ... 89

FIGURE 5.7: Macro conceptual model - University 4.0 ... 94

FIGURE 5.8: Seven categories of technological developments in the teaching and learning landscape ... 105

FIGURE 5.9: Micro conceptual model - Teaching and Learning 4.0 ... 111

FIGURE 5.10: Digital transformation of learning ... 114

FIGURE 6.1: Perceptions about university and industry collaboration... 129

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LIST OF ANNEXURES

ANNEXURE A: Scoping review protocol ………..…159

ANNEXURE B: Themes and occurrence in number of studies … ………..…163

ANNEXURE C: Report on themes clustered according to research questions ……….166

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

4IR Fourth Industrial Revolution

AI Artificial Intelligence

ICT Information Communication Technology

HE Higher Education

MOOCs Massive Open Online Courses

OERs Open Educational Resources

PSD Professional Staff Development

RQ Research Question

S-RQ Subsidiary Research Question

S-RQs Subsidiary Research Questions

STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

Throughout history industrial revolutions demonstrated one commonality, namely, societal transformation that occurred as a result of new technological breakthroughs (Schwab, 2017). Further to this, every industrial revolution has significantly changed the substance of work, affected higher education (HE) and more specifically impacted on the preparation of the future workforce (Sakhapov & Absalyamova, 2018). The First Industrial Revolution moved work from manual to machine labour, by innovatively using water and steam power. This prompted the en masse rise of new occupations and mechanisation of production (Kodama, 2018). In turn, the Second Industrial Revolution was characterised by another incredible leap forward in innovation and societal urbanisation. Mass production, assembly lines1_{and electrical power caused rapid} improvement of the operations of the cutting-edge enterprises, introducing electricity, design, aeroplanes, avionics, synthetic industry and mechanical engineering (Sakhapov & Absalyamova, 2018). As a result, as Sakhapov and Absalyamova (2018) explain, these innovations increased the interest in science and engineering, augmenting the demand for skilled workers in these domains. The Third Industrial Revolution ushered in electronics and computers, leading to innovative computerised processes (Kodama, 2018). Within the Third Industrial Revolution, the extension of access to HE became even more prominent resulting in considerably expanded campus diversity, in addition to the accelerated globalisation of scholarly studies through digital technologies with an increased demand for training service professionals (Sakhapov & Absalyamova, 2018).

From the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) (Schwab,2016), there have been controversy and conversations around this complex phenomenon, best described as a combination of technologies “blurring the lines between man and machine” (Schwab, 2016:156). According to Martin (2018), this unclear and complex image will remain confusing as the 4IR accelerates; the only clear picture at this stage is that digital skills will become more and more important in the world of work.

1 _{Assembly line is a process in manufacturing where the incomplete item proceeds between workstations until the} item is completed.

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What becomes apparent with the commencement of every successive Industrial Revolution, is the need for new skills (talents) - as complexity increases, as McGowan, (2017) illustrates in Figure 1.1.

The 4IR has universal and transformative requirements, such as codifying and programming, implanted into artificial intelligence (AI) systems, that will supplant and reshape human work practices (Lee, Yun, Pyka, Won, Kodama, Schiuma, Park, Jeon, Park, Jung, Yan, Lee & Zhao, 2018). In the South African context, the 4IR promises to be even more challenging and complex.

1.1 BACKGROUND

South Africa is currently faced with huge challenges around unemployment, poverty and inequality, exacerbated by a slowing economy. However, there is yet another force South Africa needs to prepare for to prevent even further aggravation of social injustice (Naudé, 2017). Having been brought about by the rapid development of disruptive digital technologies as mentioned above, the 4IR, also known as Industry 4.0, is a reality. Acknowledging this force,

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South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa announced in early 2018, in the State of the Nation address, that a Digital Industrial Revolution Commission would be constituted to investigate the 4IR (Ramaphosa, 2018). According to Chetty (2018), an acknowledgement of the implications of digital technology and of the necessity for a broader approach in overseeing and dealing with the effect of such advancements contributes to the uncertainty of what the future holds. Deloitte (2018) posits that the shift to Industry 4.0 involves the capacity to embrace and incorporate digital technologies to innovatively improve practices and increase productivity to remain sustainable and competitive. This digital transformation process will be unavoidable, as every single business will be affected. Therefore expectations are that the 4IR will similarly have a significant effect, on the core functions and operations of universities, as well as on future graduate employability (Xing & Marwala, 2017).

In recent decades, it has been observed that digitisation, automation, robotics and AI, powered by technology, have transformed the workplace (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2016). Tasks previously conducted by humans have now been taken over by automatons, with high efficiency (Schwab, 2017). Over time, this phenomenon is set to evolve still further, with machine learning, AI and robotics already starting to replace white-collar jobs previously held by humans (Ford, 2015).

In addition, the 4IR has an impact on business models across industries, causing disturbances and mismatches between supply and demand in the workplace (Preble, 2017). New forms of employment and new occupations are predicted to arise, partially or entirely uprooting others (Smith & Pourdehnad, 2018). In most sectors, the skill sets needed in both old and new jobs will alter and transform how and where individuals operate and work (WEF, 2016). According to Naudé (2017:13), 90% of South African corporate executive officers have in a recent survey indicated their concern regarding the “lack of availability of key skills on their organisations’ performance”. To avoid a future of potential graduate redundancy, two crucial questions need to be asked by South African universities: “What work will tomorrow’s professionals do, and what are we training them to become?” (Susskind & Susskind, 2015:232).

Xing and Marwala (2017) confirm that graduates now require skills that were not required a decade ago. McGowan (2016) reflects this phenomenon in yet another way by pointing out the importance of students now having to possess learning agility: “the ability to learn, adapt and apply in quick cycles” (McGowan, 2016:1). Moreover, to keep pace with the ever-changing cycle of “creative destruction” (Schumpeter, 1942), students will no longer reach what was previously

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referred to as a ‘finished’ state of ‘being educated’: “lifelong learning will become a permanent part of [their] professional lives” (Sledge & Fishman, 2014:12). According to Fortier (2016:1), the greatest challenge for HE lies in preparing students for future jobs by equipping them with knowledge, expertise and skills that will “serve them long-term”.

As the above-mentioned changes continue transforming the global scene and the workplace, the implications of the 4IR for HE need to be carefully considered. As far as universities’ core function of teaching and learning is concerned, the 4IR will require a radical reconsideration of current curricula and pedagogy, including the enhancement of teaching and learning practices with digital technology and its affordances (Penprase, 2018). As the need for technologically skilled and employable graduates will rapidly increase (Preble, 2017), Jackson (2017:933) argues that universities are not only obliged to provide students with a quality degree but are also responsible for adequately “connecting students with external practice”. In addition, Sledge and Fishman (2014) stress the importance of universities shifting their focus from student output to student outcomes and graduate success in dealing with the challenges linked to employability in the Industry 4.0 workplace.

Employability spans the intersection between universities and the workplace. Hence, employability includes the skills, qualities and attributes that enable graduates to find beneficial opportunities in the labour market, thus contributing to sustained development and growth (Stokes, 2015). In a knowledge economy, universities are directly connected to economic growth through the abilities and efficiency of graduates (Duc, 2017), on account of the particular high-level skills which graduates obtain (Preble, 2017).

Whilst universities have mostly retained a distinct academic focus where the emphasis is on student success towards graduation, this focus now needs to shift towards “a mixed model driven both by subject discipline and external context”, which includes the labour market and 4IR demands (Wilson, Lennox, Hughes & Brown, 2017:33). Moreover, the World Economic Forum (2019) predicts that the rapid progress of technology will require an unprecedented rate of change in what universities offer, as the traditional qualification and curriculum content will render subject knowledge redundant before the student’s graduation. In light of this, Preble (2017) contends that graduates, who are deficient in skills and technologically ineffectively trained, are ill-prepared for future employability, resulting in unemployment, or having to settle for low-wage occupations with minimal possibilities for upward mobility.

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Against this backdrop, researchers argue that there are many incongruities between the skills that Industry 4.0 requires, and the training that most universities currently offer (Preble, 2017; Penprase, 2018; Gleason, 2018). Similarly, the World Economic Forum (2018), emphasises that the current sought-after skills in the employment market are vastly different from those of even five years ago. Consequently, many skills mismatches arise, not only in supply and demand in the current situation, but also in terms of future skills requirements (Martin, 2018).

Mismatches between graduate skills and workplace requirements can hardly be afforded in a country with such high levels of unemployment as South Africa, with 6.7 million of the South African population being unemployed in the first quarter of 2019 (STATS SA, 2019). Of the 6.7 million unemployed individuals, 6.9% had professional qualifications as their highest level of education (STATS SA, 2019). Nearly one third of this professionally qualified but unemployed group are young people under the age of 24. Accordingly, the lack of skills and its widening effect on the wage gap in South Africa are demonstrated by what is happening in the employment market where those with digital skills earn high remuneration while those without digital skills are left behind (STATS SA, 2018). Therefore, Chetty (2018) reiterates that South African universities need to be proactive in finding innovative approaches to address concerns regarding the current digital divide. Moreover, such digital skills mismatches will exacerbate even further if universities procrastinate in responding to these digital demands, as shown in the Future of Jobs Report (WEF, 2018). This suggests that South African universities should be rethinking their programme offerings and pedagogy and not be caught unprepared for confronting an uncertain and unpredictable technologically-driven future (Gleason, 2018). A prerequisite for this to happen is an in-depth understanding of the implications of the 4IR for South African universities.

While the argument above focuses strongly on the implications for HE in terms of graduate employability, it is important to acknowledge that universities have a much broader role than simply training graduates for the workplace. Public universities, particularly, have a common good role, implying that graduates also need to be prepared to become active, critical and caring citizens within their families, communities and the broader society. For the purpose of this research project, the focus is, however, primarily on the role of the university in preparing the future workforce.

The aim of this study is therefore to explore and examine the implications of the 4IR for the key functions of South African universities, particularly those functions related to teaching and

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learning, and how they need to be transformed to better equip and prepare the future workforce. In order to achieve this aim, a scoping review was done. Scoping reviews have proven to be a useful tool to provide clarity on such a broad research topic (Boland, Cherry & Dickson, 2017).

Two conceptual models were developed as representations of the findings from the scoping review: firstly, on a macro level, a conceptual model covering the core functions of a future South African university was developed. The model indicates those functions that will be most affected by the 4IR, placing the university as a whole into a future context. Secondly, on a micro level, a conceptual model was developed of the future teaching and learning practices, focused on the preparation of graduates for the future workplace.

This study is significant in that the 4IR is a new phenomenon. Its influences on South African universities and the required skills for graduates to be prepared for the new Industry 4.0 workplace have not been exhaustively researched in South Africa.

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

The 4IR differs in speed, scale, complexity, and transformative power from previous industrial revolutions (Smith & Pourdehnad, 2018). Owing to, amongst others factors, globalisation and the rapid evolving of new digital technologies, some careers are becoming obsolete and being replaced by new ones, causing the changing face of work and increased unemployment rates (Preble, 2017). According to Statistics South Africa (2019), the unemployment rate of graduates in South Africa in the young graduate age group (up to the age of 24), was 31% in the first quarter of 2019. By implication, this means that 1 in 3 young professional adults in South Africa did not obtain employment in the first quarter of 2019 (STATS SA, 2019).

In light of these statistics, South African universities, as producers of graduates with high-level skills, need to take heed of the imperative to better equip and prepare graduates for the opportunities of tomorrow and future employment in the Industry 4.0 workplace. For this to happen, transformation of higher education and in particular teaching and learning, is inevitable (Adams Becker, Brown, Dahlstrom, Davis, DePaul, Diaz & Pomerantz, 2018).

The following research questions were derived taking into consideration the need for a better understanding of the 4IR and its influence on South African universities.

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The main research question that guided the study was:

How should the key functions of South African universities, particularly those related to teaching and learning, be transformed to better prepare the future workforce for the 4IR?

The following subsidiary questions were identified:

1) What is the role of South African universities in preparing the future workforce for the 4IR?

2) Which key themes related to the implications of the 4IR for South African universities can be identified from relevant literature?

3) What innovative teaching and learning practices to better prepare and equip students with the required skills for future jobs in the Industry 4.0 workplace can be identified from relevant literature?

4) Which conceptual models (consisting of key functions and assumed relationships between these functions/practices), can be proposed for South African universities and particularly their teaching and learning function, to better prepare the future workforce for the 4IR?

This study’s findings could contribute to theory, policy and practice. The suggested changes to traditional higher education approaches, as proposed by these conceptual models, may serve as a starting point for South African universities to better prepare the future workforce for the 4IR.

1.3 RESEARCH METHOD: SCOPING REVIEW

A scoping review can be characterised as a research method to thoroughly investigate the available research on a specific topic. Scoping reviews and systematic reviews pursue similar methodological avenues where trustworthiness of results and the potential for replication remain essential. Since a scoping review allows for a broader research question than a systematic review, it was selected as a suitable research method for this study. Accordingly, this scoping review implemented the five phases2_from _{Arksey and O’Malley (2005) as guideline in}

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conducting the review. While the scoping review was valuable in identifying research gaps and summarising findings, it also proved useful in reviewing and selecting the most relevant amongst a variety of available sources on the 4IR (Boland et al., 2017).

Four key search concepts were identified, which guided the retrieval of studies from the different database literature searches; these search concepts are as follows: (1) 4IR, (2) universities, (3) teaching and learning, (4) and skills. For the purpose of this scoping review, skills are regarded as inclusive of workplace employability and unemployment, because the lack of skills will result in unemployment due to the demands of the future workplace or the opposite. The scoping review aimed at attaining an overview of the range and depth of available studies, opinions and conference proceedings, to name but a few. Furthermore, the review intended to gain an understanding of the phenomenon under investigation, namely, the 4IR, its challenges and implications for HE, in order to put the exploration of this study into context, hence, finding the ‘what’ and ‘how’ answers to the research questions in order to better prepare the future workforce. The outcome was the development of conceptual models through which the relationships between the identified themes and concepts are examined and presenting a logical flow of findings in fulfilment of the aim of this non-empirical study. Providing a review of studies, themes and concepts at this stage would be premature and result in duplication, as this will be dealt with and discussed in subsequent chapters.

1.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Given that the scoping review was performed as part of a mini-thesis, and the review was an individual assignment, two major limitations were time constraints and the fact that no consultations were held with stakeholders to verify results and findings, as suggested by Arksey and O’Malley (2005). More limitations are deliberated on in the next chapter; challenges with specific reference to the scoping review itself are discussed in Chapter Three and limitations to the overall study are dealt with in Chapter Six.

1.5 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

It is important for a researcher to consider the ethical risks that might ascend in the course of the study. Although any ethical risks for this study were considered as very low, a formal ethical clearance application was submitted and granted by Stellenbosch University (see Annexure D).

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1.6 CLARIFICATION OF KEY CONCEPTS

As the 4IR is perceived as complex, key concepts used in the frame of reference are defined below.

1.6.1 Artificial intelligence and automation

AI is a rapidly progressing technology that has a significant impact on humans’ daily lives through the artificial creation of human intelligence capable of reading, thinking, planning, perceiving and manipulating natural language (Internet Society, 2017). AI influences highly skilled graduate jobs and also what it means to be employable, while automation means that humans are replaced by machines in that the jobs that were previously done by humans are now done by machines (Neufeind, O`Reilly & Ranft, 2018). AI is disrupting the workplace intensely by not only automating a large number of jobs but also altering the nature of jobs which in turn will require specific skills to execute (Corfe, 2018). However, AI is likely to create more opportunities to apply general capacities in the future, translating into multidisciplinary robotic work and more human-conscious software solutions (WEF, 2017a).

1.6.2 Big data

Big data is a term describing an extreme volume of data, both structured and unstructured information or data-sets (Carillo, 2017). In South Africa, big data is having an effect on almost every sector of the economy. In agriculture, big data is utilised to increment operational productivity. In financial services, the application may be utilised to improve deals and streamline processes. In health care, big data is connected to the discovery of cures for diseases, and enhancing the general quality of life, amongst others aspects (Pellini, Weyrauch, Malho & Carden, 2019). Big data can be defined in terms of the three ‘v’s: volume, variety, and velocity; however, recently, two more ‘v’s were added: value and veracity (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2016:11). As a result, technologies such as big data and analytics have increased the demand for graduates with adequate creative, engineering, analytic, or digital skills (Schwab, 2017).

1.6.3 Machine learning

Machine learning is not new and can be categorised as an AI method as it “involves algorithms that are fundamental to the viability of AI” (Smith & Pourdehnad, 2018:22). Machine learning is also a sub-field of computer science. Inferring and understanding

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new commands from data is the key strong point of machine learning. It investigates and analyses data, does the math, gains from it, and utilises it to make a prediction, depending on the situation. The machine is being prepared, or truly preparing itself, on the most proficient method to perform an assignment accurately then learning from the data and building its very own logic in providing solutions (Internet Society, 2017). In other words, machine learning permits computers to learn unaided and more quickly than any human can.

1.6.4 MOOCs

Massive open online courses or so-called MOOCs are online courses that provide open access to and unlimited participation in a variety of training courses that could include practical exercises and interactive support forums (McLaughlin, 2016). Whether gratis or simply cost effective, these courses appeal to students, mainly on account of the easy accessibility thereof. Students have the freedom of where and when to do the course and on which device (Aziz Hussin, 2018). MOOCs are also popular under the employed population as a continuous learning opportunity (Bates, 2015).

1.6.5 OERs

Open educational resources (OERs) are freely available educational resources and cover a comprehensive collection of digital content and online formats that are supportive of educating, learning and research purposes (Bates, 2015).

1.6.6 Robotics

The field of robotics is a vital sphere of influence in which the impact of the 4IR can be seen. Here there is a rapid augmentation in digital development - building machines that can explore and operate in the physical world of factories. Such robotics also relate to health care where precise operations are being performed on patients, self-driven cars, and the use of robots in warehouses, war zones, and workplaces, to name only a few uses (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2016).

1.6.7 Skills

In this study skills refer to those special attributes and competencies required to enhance the employability prospects of a graduate (WEF, 2016). In the new workplace, acquiring these scarce abilities or skills will have a direct impact on the actual

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employment outcome. Such skills acquisition refers not only to the ability to apply successfully for a position after graduation, but also to maintain it, and to be transferable and adaptable to other, new positions (Neufeind et al., 2018). It must be taken into account that a number of elements, namely economic interference, Industry 4.0, work shortages or the end of jobs, inadequacy of skills, or the combination thereof, influence employment or technological unemployment (Brown & Keep, 2018).

In other words, skills refer to those abilities and traits that are inculcated by universities, which mirror the nature of self-awareness and knowledgeable improvement of graduates, and the pertinence they convey to the work environment (Adams Becker et al., 2018). Those skills that encourage adaptability within uncertain and fluctuating conditions are regarded as the most crucial skills in the workplace (Lent, 2018).

1.7 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This study is significant in that the 4IR is a new and relatively unknown phenomenon. Its influences on South African universities and implications for the required skills for graduates to be prepared for the new Industry 4.0 workplace have not been researched adequately in South Africa.

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1.8 CHAPTER OUTLINE

This thesis comprises six chapters. The content of each chapter is summarised below:

Chapter One introduces the study and describes the problem. It continues by providing the

overall research aim, objectives and the main research question with the subsidiary research questions, as well as the clarification of key concepts and the significance of the study.

Chapter Two presents the research design and methodology, in addition to justifying the

reason for using a qualitative approach based on the findings of a scoping review. It explains the approach to analysing the collected data for the present study. It also points out the overall limitations of the study as well as the ethical considerations involved.

Chapter Three provides a detailed description of the methods used for the scoping review and

the effect thereof on the final sample of studies. This chapter outlines the main themes and sub-themes that emerged from the scoping review. It also provides the principal findings and the strengths and limitations of the scoping review itself.

Chapter Four delivers an overview of the findings from the scoping review on the profile of

South Africa as a country regarding the employability scope, the future workforce, the future workplace and future careers. This chapter also describes the skills needed to succeed in this new Industry 4.0 workplace, identified through the scoping review in the previous chapter.

Chapter Five outlines the conceptual approach in developing the two proposed models for this

study. Furthermore, this chapter elaborates on and illustrates the relationships between the identified themes and sub-themes of the thematic analysis to explain in more detail the extracted data introduced in Chapter Three.

Chapter Six is the concluding chapter, which summarises the findings of this study. It also

highlights implications within the South African context and provides recommendations for future studies.

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CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

2.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter discusses the theoretical background, research methodology and design that were tailored and applied for this non-empirical study. A discussion of the data collection method and the reasons for using a scoping review and conceptual modelling approach also form part of this chapter. Important matters regarding the inclusion and exclusion criteria of identified studies, as outlined in the scoping review protocol, data analysis methods and matters of reliability and trustworthiness are deliberated. The research objectives that aim to address the research questions are proposed, placing the overall research motivation of this study into context. Finally, limitations experienced throughout the duration of the study and the ethical considerations of the study conclude this chapter.

2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

During the 4IR human beings with digital skills will become a valuable and sought-after asset when competing with robots in a dramatically and fundamentally changed world of work (Kupe, 2019). In this modern and technology-driven era, economic progress is based on the fast processing of data, the implementation of digital technologies and the development of human capital (Schwab, 2016). In the 4IR, a human being’s unique abilities, expertise and knowledge will become the primary and substantial asset in remaining robot-proof (Aoun, 2017). These developments can be interpreted in various ways, depending on the theoretical framework adopted by the researcher. The two theoretical frameworks found to be most related to the 4IR and its implications for HE is human capital theory and human development theory (Tomer, 2016). These theoretical frameworks are briefly introduced below, followed by my argument for adopting human capital theory as theoretical framework for this study.

2.2.1 Human capital theory

Human capital theory 3_{originated in the 1700’s when Smith (1776) claimed that education forms} the basis of human capital in every society, allowing and sustaining economic growth. Smith (1776) determined that the acquisition of valuable skills and knowledge by one nation's inhabitants increases individual human capital, while at the same time increasing the general

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wealth of that nation. Kupe (2019) therefore argues that universities, globally and in South Africa, are expected to contribute to the advancement and development of their societies by investing in their graduates. In this regard, government, the private sector and students themselves are investing in the acquiring of human capital through, for example, a relevant university education (Alan, Altman & Roussel, 2008). This needs to be supported by teaching and learning policies that produce excellently educated, emotionally intelligent students equipped with adequate skills for the 4IR workplace (Kupe, 2019).

A standard definition could not be found to define human capital. The definition varies amongst studies. Rastogi (2000) used words meaning knowledgeable, highly skilled, driven and innovative, Maringe (2015) adds entrepreneurship and Davidsson and Honig (2003) incorporate a creative mind exploring and making new discoveries, into the mix. According to Baptiste (2001) the term human capital refers to understanding, mind-sets, and abilities that are mainly open to and appreciated for their economic potential. Be that as it may, these are all qualities that are most wanted and relevant in the 4IR domain. Human capital theory also has a profound impact on a variety of other disciplines ranging from education to humanities and social science, amongst others. Human capital theory is therefore seen as a comprehensive approach to analysing human affairs and recommending policies according to a particular viewpoint (Tan, 2014). Furthermore, human capital theory is perceived as the dominant paradigm on the financial side of HE, suggesting that efficient training and development are investments that can greatly contribute to graduates being more successful (Maringe, 2015). Sledge and Fishman (2014) confirm this, pointing out that students’ reasons for enrolling at universities have changed as employability is now an important and decisive factor in their decision to enroll at university. Tan (2014) agrees and places HE at the core of the human capital theory approach, as it primarily seen as the source of economic growth (Tan, 2014). Human capital theory propounds that higher academic levels result in increased productivity and higher income (Tomer, 2016). However, Olaniyan and Okermakinde (2008) caution that HE is an economic benefit because it is difficult to obtain and therefore should not fail by adding little value or no skills.

The theory of human capital has been subject to consistent criticism since its inception. Tan (2014:427-428) lists the following shortcomings of human capital theory. The first shortcoming concerns the boundaries of economics as a discipline. The reality is that there is a multidisciplinary element in all subjects and in the 4IR it is desirable to eliminate such boundaries. However, the manner in which knowledge and expertise are exchanged at this multidisciplinary level should hold shared advantages for all participating disciplines. It should

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not be a top-down or economics-orientated superiority strategy, which is what economics is criticised for. The second shortcoming is integrally connected to the first; it is asserted that HE is being regulated merely as an additional section of industry. Thus, HE is no longer seen as an integrated tool for fostering independence, self-enrichment and human development, but rather as a profit-driven enterprise. Further criticisms on human capital theory relate not only to the economic domination and infiltration to try and steer other subject fields. Criticism has been levelled on how human capital theory has focused HE on company requirements and regarding HE as a financial uncertainty survival instrument.

In addition, Baptiste (2001) discloses human capital theory’s experiential and theoretical shortcomings. These include, for example, the excessively one-dimensional perspective on individuals of the theory, its limited understanding of employment, the contradictory nature of its scientific proof, and the statistical barriers connected with measuring return on capital in HE, amongst others. Some critics believe that this theory was based on a limited insight into human development (Alkire and Deneulin, 2009). Tomer (2016) posits that, for the most part, human capital theory has highlighted human cognitive growth and the acquisition of knowledge and skills that allow for increased productivity and income but then has focused far too little on non-cognitive human development.

2.2.2 Human development theory

Human development theory is known for its focus on increasing the abilities of individuals and offering them the chance to develop, whether at work or in a private capacity. Human development theory extends beyond the human capital theory organisational boundaries, leading to the liberty of individuals to choose where and how they would like to work or live (Welzel, Inglehart & Klingemann, 2003). Furthermore, Alkire and Deneulin (2009) indicate that human development theory considers all areas of life - financial, social, and cultural. Hence, economic growth is perceived as merely a small segment of the overall concept of human development. Tomer (2016) elaborates that human development theory was largely influenced by Maslow's (1943) humanistic psychological view, in particular, his needs hierarchy (Maslow, cited in Tomer, 2016:4).

According to Welzel et al. (2003), three significant equations of revolutionary change occur in human development theory. The most important is socio-economic development which can be defined as a collection of strongly related modifications, including technological change, innovation, productivity growth, increased life expectancy, higher incomes, higher education

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levels and access to big data. The second equation, value change, correlates with the concept that conventional values of compliance subordinating human freedom to the morality of the society tend to give way to more emancipatory values that accentuate human decision. The last equation is a notable shift towards more democracy (Welzel et al., 2003).

Integrating the human development and human capital approaches, as suggested by Tomer (2016), could enhance and broaden the human capital approach, as underpinned by Robeyns (2006). In an uncertain 4IR epoch, in which human beings will face complexity on a daily basis, the three-sided human development theory pyramid (Figure 2.1) could be crucial in surviving automation.

The first side of the above pyramid reflects the development of higher skills and knowledge, thus an educational path. The second side includes the development of psychological and social aspects that could lead to better and much sought-after emotional intelligence and

FIGURE 2.1: The three-sided human development pyramid (adapted

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enhance personality traits, a path that recalls the hierarchy of needs of Maslow. The third side involves the neurodevelopment of a person, that assists in dealing with disruptive and stressful situations (Tomer, 2016). Thus, the pyramid concept provides an important guideline for understanding how different types of human capital investment can help the individual develop in various aspects of their lives to reach their full potential.

2.2.3 Human capital theory and conceptualisation of the 4IR

Despite the limitations and criticisms of the human capital theory, this concept was nonetheless considered the most suitable as theoretical framework for this study. In the 4IR context, Tan (2014) highlights that HE needs to enhance students' abilities, adaptability, and mobility, at least in theory, which will in turn decrease technological unemployment. One of the 4IR's imperatives is to improve human capital in order to satisfy the workplace demands of expertise and ability (Diwan, 2017). Olaniyan and Okermakinde (2008) caution that the assumption that HE is contributing to the developmental needs and economic growth of every country, depends on the quality and success of their graduates. Schwab (2016) emphasises that investing in human capital, through upskilling and reskilling the current workforce, will be crucial. It will therefore also be inevitable for universities to contribute to economic growth through preparing the future workforce in order to remain sustainable (Schwab, 2016). Busteed (2019) agrees, and stresses that having already incurred substantial student debt, the future workforce expect return on their investment. This entails being prepared for and employable in the 4IR workplace, thus receiving a good income to provide for their needs and own well-being. Furthermore, the World Economic Forum White Paper (2017) advances a shared view of reform priorities in HE, employment prospects and assisting leaders in promoting human capital investment in the context of the 4IR. In the words of Marshall (1920:626), "the most valuable of all capital is that invested in human beings”.

2.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

An interpretive paradigm was adopted for this study. This implies a philosophical stance that concentrates on investigating and exploring the social world to gain a better understanding of phenomena (Gray, 2014:24). The role of the researcher in the interpretivist world view is to strive purposefully to unravel the reality of the circumstances within a particular contextual environment (Babbie, 2017). Thus, in this study the adoption of the interpretivist paradigm was largely aimed at exploring and making sense of the 4IR phenomenon. Moreover, the interpretivist paradigm has enabled the researcher to pursue an understanding of the

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implications of this technologically-driven world, exploring the various perspectives, and interpreting them to make meaning thereof (Creswell, 2007:21).

Within the interpretive paradigm, the study also followed an exploratory approach. Blumberg, Cooper and Schindler (2014) explain that an exploratory research approach is valuable in situations where the phenomenon is new and complex, and limited information is available. The exploratory research approach aimed at assessing the influence of the 4IR on universities. The study also investigated the preparation of the future workforce for the 4IR and the role therein of South African universities. This has incorporated the knowledge and skills students require for improved graduate employability.

This was a non-empirical study; non-empirical research is “interpretative, often involving aspects and processes that cannot be observed directly” (Du Plooy-Cilliers, Davis & Bezuidenhout, 2014:69). In view of this, the primary research methods for this study were a scoping review and

conceptual modelling. Arksey and O’Malley (2005) propose that scoping review has become a

popular methodology in providing an overview of an emerging phenomenon, defining concepts and addressing broad research questions.

A scoping review can be described as:

a type of knowledge synthesis that addresses an exploratory research question directed at mapping main ideas or concepts, research findings and gaps linked to a specified field or subject area through the systematic search, selection and synthesis of current state of knowledge (Colquhoun, Levac, O’Brien, Straus, Tricco, Perrier, Kastner & Moher, 2014:1293).

The main focus of the scoping review was on gaining a comprehensive understanding of the 4IR and the implications thereof for South African universities. Specific reference was made to teaching and learning, as one of the core functions of a university. Chapter Three provides more details regarding the scoping review approach, inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were screened and selected.

Development of the conceptual models commenced after conducting the review of existing studies by consulting peer-reviewed journal articles, books or monographs, conference papers, and other pertinent sources, to identify and outline the core concepts and possible interactions within the different models. The key findings deriving from the scoping review were selected and used for designing the two conceptual models.

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According to Verschuren and Doorewaard (2010), a conceptual model is perceived as an informal and simplified presentation of a real life scenario. The terms “representation” and “model” are closely related to one another; professionals see a model as an illustration or representation of a concept.

A conceptual model can be therefore be defined as:

schematic representation of the key ideas or concepts of a research study (variables) and the presumed causal relationships between these key ideas or concepts (Doorewaard, 2010:202).

The protocol4_{for the scoping review was developed by focusing on the five phases of Arksey} and O’Malley (2005) for examining existing studies. The five phases are: (1) identifying the research questions, (2) searching for relevant sources and studies within the predetermined criteria, (3) screening titles and abstracts for selection, (4) extraction and charting of the data, and (5) collating, analysing, summarising, and reporting the resulted findings (Arksey & O’Malley, 2005; Levac et al., 2010). The final analysis phase in the scoping review should include “a descriptive numerical summary and a thematic analysis” (Levac et al., 2010:6).

Drawing from the findings of the scoping review, as previously mentioned, a step-by-step approach to the construction of the conceptual models was followed. The first conceptual model indicates those functions of South African universities that will be most affected by the 4IR. The second, more detailed conceptual model of teaching and learning was developed, indicating foreseen changes, transformation of practices and technological advancements that would better equip and prepare the future workforce for the 4IR.

The significance of a conceptual model lies in connecting the research with the real-world phenomenon, in other words creating intangible portrayals of reality. These portrayals or representations play an important role in illustrating those concepts of reality under investigation (Doorewaard, 2010). Since a conceptual model is a (simplified) reflection of the real world, it may seem less intricate than reality itself.

The “transparency, systematic methods, and comprehensiveness of a scoping review” validate efforts to avoid or reduce bias and ensuring trustworthiness (Hanneke, Asada, Lieberman, Neubauer & Fagen, 2017:5). Trustworthiness is all about ensuring credibility, transferability,

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confirmability and dependability, which are described in more detail below. In this study the researcher adhered to the clearly specified inclusion and exclusion criteria in the scoping review protocol and performed consistently in the application thereof to ensure that the findings are credible. Additionally, transferability is demonstrated by the criteria as described in the scoping review protocol that can be applicable to other similar contexts.

The scoping review protocol prescribes a transparent and rigorous approach to better understanding of a complex phenomenon, namely, the 4IR (Boland et al., 2017). The scoping review protocol was reviewed by a qualified information librarian and by the supervisor to reduce selective publication, reporting bias and ensuring confirmability. The scoping review protocol further ensures the dependability of the study in that other researchers can replicate the search results by using the same clearly defined search syntax and arriving at similar results. In addition to this, the PRISMA flow chart, in Chapter Three, reveals the search results, screening and review process that was followed. Such a process demonstrates that integrity and reliability, as principles of trustworthiness, were thoroughly taken into account throughout the investigation. This scrutiny was particularly ensured regarding the reporting of the results and findings (Collier-Reed, Ingerman & Berglund, 2009). Using Mendeley, as a reliable reference management software tool ensured a well-organised, transparent and searchable data-set of relevant studies for the scoping review.

Creswell (2007) reiterates the importance of accuracy, appropriate data selection methods, and mitigation of researcher bias, as these factors could have a direct impact on the credibility of results. The researcher therefore took precautions in using the pre-developed scoping review protocol as guideline to ensure a reliable, accurate and usable research outcome. A Python programme (discussed in Chapter Three) was written to verify and present trustworthy data extraction results.

2.4 RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The field and scope of the 4IR in the context of HE is very wide and complex. Currently, a large degree of uncertainty around this phenomenon exists. This applies especially to identifying the implications of the 4IR for universities, and even more so, in the South African context. The same challenge exists as far as the core function of teaching and learning is concerned. The research objectives are viewed as the perceptible actions taken in achieving the overall aim of the study (Du Plooy-Cilliers et al., 2014). By embracing these actions and working with the emerging themes and concepts from the scoping review, the findings were analysed, discussed,

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and presented in the conceptual models. These models would serve as an effort to accomplish the overall aim and intentions of this study, which is providing guidelines for transformation towards a University 4.0.

In light of achieving the research aim and objectives and placing the research objectives of this study into context, the main research question and subsidiary research questions of this study are recapped and displayed in Figure 2.1:

In order to gain an understanding in searching for answers to the above research questions, suitable data sources had to be obtained. Consequently, for this study as previously introduced, the scoping review was deemed fit as the research method of application for the data collection phase. The collection of the secondary data included a broad range of relevant sources, both print and online sources.

Deriving from the above-mentioned research questions and main aim of this study, the following research objectives were formulated in such a way as to address these particular questions.

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TABLE 2.1: Research objectives, methods and data sources

MAIN RESEARCH QUESTION

MAIN RESEARCH AIM

RQ To conduct a scoping review and to explore and examine how the implications

of the 4IR will influence the key functions of South African universities, with specific reference to teaching and learning, in the preparation of the future workforce for the Industry 4.0 workplace

Method Non-empirical: Scoping Review

Data sources Secondary data: Books, journal articles, conference proceedings, publications, reports and grey literature

SUBSIDIARY RESEARCH QUESTIONS

SUBSIDIARY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

S-RQ1

To determine the role of South African universities in preparing the future workforce for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

S-RQ2 To review, analyse and identify key themes from the results, in order to summarise and group findings together

Data sources Themes and concepts from the results of the scoping review

S-RQ3 To explore the literature and published research on innovative teaching and learning practices to better prepare and equip students with the required skills for future jobs in the Industry 4.0 workplace

S-RQ4 To develop conceptual models as a representation of the findings deriving from the scoping review, that will facilitate transformation and innovation relevant to South African universities and particularly teaching and learning to better prepare the future workforce for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

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The results of this study could be valuable to graduates, South African universities and Industry 4.0 employers. The study could encourage the developing of better practices towards equipping students with the required skills, thus improving graduates’ future success in the Industry 4.0 workplace.

2.5 DATA ANALYSIS METHODS

As the data analysis methods are discussed more broadly under the scoping review in Chapter Three, only a brief summary is provided here. Thematic analysis was used to identify, group and cluster the emergent themes and sub-themes from the scoping review in an attempt to answer the research questions of the study. These emerging themes also served as guidelines in the construction of the conceptual models.

Thematic analysis was used based on its permission for flexibility in the data analysis process. This method also offers a guided construct of the organisation and grouping of themes that support the synthesising and interpretation of the phenomenon under investigation (Braun & Clarke, 2006).

Braun and Clarke’s (2006) six steps guided the thematic analysis process and were utilised for completing the data analysis of this study. The most important advantages of the six phases in thematic analysis conveyed by Braun and Clarke (2006) are that they provide a clear and functional basis for applying thematic analysis and helping to unravel a complex and uncertain topic. Braun and Clarke’s (2006) six steps are illustrated in Figure 2.3.

How South African universities can contribute to preparing the future workforce for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

by

Lizette Wessels

Supervisor: Prof Magda Fourie-Malherbe

DECLARATION

ABSTRACT

OPSOMMING

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF ANNEXURES

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 2

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY