IMPROVING FOOD SOVEREIGNTY IN EGYPT AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

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I

MPROVING

F

OOD

S

OVEREIGNTY IN

E

GYPT

A

N INTERDISCIPLINARY

A

PPROACH

Michel van den Akker

Interdisciplinary Project

Martijn Vermeer

Future Planet Studies

Andes Vreeken

University of Amsterdam

Romy Stijsiger

May 2014

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Preface

This report is an assessment of the Interdisciplinary Project which is the final course of the Future Planet Studies of the University of Amsterdam. The report is written by four students of the University of Amsterdam who are in their third year of their bachelor. In line with the interdisciplinary nature of the Institution for Interdisciplinary Studies and Future Planet Studies, the report uses an interdisciplinary research approach. We want to gratefully thank our mentors J.V. Rothuizen and C.F. Rammelt for their efforts and guidance throughout the process.

Michel van den Akker Student nr. 10145451 Tel. Nr. 0655748388 Email: michel091@live.nl Martijn Vermeer Student nr. 10243879 Tel. Nr. 0627351919 Email: martijnvermeer92@gmail.com Andes Vreeken Student nr. 10150463 Tel. Nr. 0619076166 Email: Andes222@hotmail.com Romy Stijsiger Student nr. 10113258 Tel. Nr. 0620533519 Email: Romy_jaana@hotmail.com

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A

BSTRACT

Historically, many countries including Egypt have witnessed riots and social unrest due to increasing food prices. The rising prices as a result of the global food crisis of 2007-2008 are even being considered as an important trigger for the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2010. The current situation in which Egypt imports roughly 40% of its domestically consumed food is, besides a trigger for social unrest and political riots, a risk for food security related issues (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). This poor status quo and dependence on foreign foods is caused by a combination of limited arable land due to the arid climate, a rapidly growing population and thus food demand and the existence of a substantial food subsidy program that creates disincentives for production. To avoid food security issues, social unrest and to become less dependent on foreign food, Egypt has to improve its food sovereignty. This principle is viewed as ‘having control over food production in a sustainable food system, on the national level being independent on foreign food aid and imports and thereby not being vulnerable to international conditions and price fluctuations’. A prerequisite to improve food sovereignty is increasing the national food production. This can be achieved by first,

implementing policy reforms that include gradual liberalization in sectors where it is needed since food subsidies are political highly sensitive and not likely to be reduced or abolished in the short-term. Second, investing in drainage (counteracting desertification) and land reclamation programs, as these have the potential to increase food production and create incentives to produce. In order to create a sustainable food system that is capable of sustaining the Egyptian people in the long run, production techniques have to take environmental issues into account and use bio-fertilizers.

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1. I

NTRODUCTION

As a result of the 2007-2008 food crisis local food prices in Egypt rose about 37%, triggering a wave of food riots and social unrest followed by the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2010 (Economist, 2012). Although the recognition of food prices as single explanation for the outbreak of the Arab Spring is questionable, its role is certainly important (Economist, 2012). Like the majority of the nations in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa), Egypt is highly dependent on food imports to meet the needs of the population (Hanna & Osman, 1995). The current situation in which Egypt imports roughly 40% of its domestically

consumed food commodities is, beside a trigger for political unrest and riots, a risk for food security related issues (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). This because the supply of foreign food commodities at a nationally acceptable price cannot be guaranteed due to poor harvests, speculation, global fluctuations in oil prices and conflicts. The answer to the question: ‘Why is Egypt so dependent on food imports?’ is two-sided. First, Egypt is among the most arid countries in the world with 86% of the land is classified as hyper arid and the remaining as arid or semi-arid which sets limits to food production (Hussein, 2011). As the annual precipitation is extremely low, the country is completely dependent on the Nile as it only water source. Only 4% of the country consists of arable land, which is concentrated around the flow of the Nile and. This small fertile strip of land is inhabited by basically all of Egypt’s 84 million people, making it a very densely populated area. In addition, Egypt’s population is still rapidly increasing with about 1.5 million each year (Hussein, 2011). The magnitude of this growing population results in an extensive food demand that will only increase in the future.

Second, Egypt developed agricultural policies with the aim of providing basic food

commodities to the entire population by substantially subsidizing these commodities (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). A social safety net is thereby created which is, however, in conflict with the desire to achieve self-sufficiency in the food sector since subsidies are a clear disincentive for food production (von Braun & de Haen, 1983).

To avoid food security issues, social unrest and to be less dependent on foreign food, Egypt has to improve its food sovereignty. This principle is viewed as ‘having control over food production in a sustainable food system, on the national level being independent on foreign food aid and imports and thereby not being vulnerable to international conditions and price fluctuations’. A prerequisite to improve food sovereignty is increasing the national food production. To achieve this goal, the causes of the two-sided problem have to be addressed. First, at policy level, reforms in the food and subsidy system have huge potential to increase food production by creating incentives to produce. Second, in order to overcome production problems caused by the arid conditions, counteracting desertification as well as land reclamation can increase food production. Desertification refers to the process of degrading land, mainly due to adverse human impact, which in Egypt has resulted in substantial loss of arable land and decreased quality, resulting in reduced food production (UNEP,…). Land reclamation is the process of creating arable land for food production in areas that are now

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desert. Both these measures also create incentives to invest in food production since higher yields are more profitable and increase farmers income. In addition, since food sovereignty emphasizes the notion of a sustainable food system to sustain food production in the long term, this report will carry out an environmental assessment about the consequences of enhanced food production.

This report investigates the possibilities to increase Egypt’s national food production in order to improve its food sovereignty and thereby, making it less dependent on foreign food. This aim is pursued by evaluating and recommending agricultural policy reforms and offering techniques that can increase food production. This research uses an interdisciplinary approach which combines insights form political science, earth sciences and biology in addressing the main question: ’How can the productivity and sustainability of Egypt’s food system be increased in order to improve food sovereignty’?

The report starts with a theoretical framework followed by the methodology section. Then, the results will begin with the agricultural policy evaluation, divided in an historical overview part, a part that describes the relation between agricultural policies and food production and a part that identifies the political context and reform scope. Subsequently, the impact of desertification is evaluated together with possible counter measures to improve food

productivity. Then, the technique of land reclamation is discussed, followed by a section that investigates fertilization and offers an environmental assessment. Finally, the report will conclude and offer recommendations for future policies.

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2. T

HEORETICAL

F

RAMEWORK

The food context of Egypt and the main question of the report can be viewed and interpreted from several perspectives and theories. Recognition and knowledge of these theories is useful to create a broad understanding of the food sovereignty issue, its implications and possible solutions.

First, extensive literature is available on the principle of food sovereignty in which various authors use different definitions. In this report, food sovereignty is viewed as: ’having control over food production in a sustainable food system, on the national level being independent on foreign food aid and imports and thereby not being vulnerable to

international conditions and price fluctuations’. From this perspective logically follows that producing food as a nation in a sustainable way is essential in achieving food sovereignty since otherwise you cannot control food and be independent from foreign countries in the long run. It is therefore that this report focuses on ways to improve the productivity and sustainability of Egypt’s food system.

First, a theory that is pre-eminently important regarding food sovereignty in Egypt is the (neo) liberal perspective. Liberalism emphasizes the effect of efficient market mechanisms on the production and allocation of goods (Gilpin, 1987). In a free market system, nations are able to pursue their interests at best and benefit fully from their comparative advantages (Gilpin, 1987). Therefore, market constraints, price distortions and economical restrictions have to be removed. According liberalism, Egypt’s governmental interference with the food market is the cause of the problems regarding food production and sovereignty as current protective policies create clear disincentives to engage in food production.

In contrast to liberalism, a second theory that helps to understand the issue of food

sovereignty is Marxism. This conventional theory states that liberalism and its conditions are solely benefiting the rich and developing countries in the global economy (Cox, 1986). In a liberal world, the dominant international capitalist class is able to exploit the poor and developing countries in pursuing its own interests (Cox, 1986). According to Marxism, Egypt should be very careful with liberalizing the food sector in order to improve food sovereignty, it could become a victim of international exploitation. These two opposite theories are more about the fundamental interpretation of the world system and the food issue than the next theory, which is about regime stability. Regimes, like the ones that Egypt has witnessed are benefiting from political stability, as social unrest is a threat to their existence. Food

subsidies, among other subsidies, are perceived to promote political stability and therefore are in favor of the ruling elite (Rosenberg, 2011). From this perspective, the Egyptian government and international donors like the United States, who benefits from a stable MENA region and stable oil market, will try to maintain extensive subsidy programs for their own interests. A related theory which is also applicable to environmental issues is resilience theory. This theory states that systems, originally ecosystems, can handle a certain amount of stress factors before they pass their tipping point which results in a different system state (Holing, 1973). The degree of stress factors that an ecosystem, or a political regime, can

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handle determines the resilience of the regime (Holling, 1973). Social upheaval, as we have seen in the Arab Spring for example, did cause regime shifts and elite replacement.

Resilience theory is both applicable to the Egyptian ruling elite, their policies and the Egyptian environmental ecosystems. In almost all relevant theories there is recognition of the concept of ‘interests’. In liberalism we speak of mutual interests, in Marxism it is about the interests of the dominant class and in the case of political stability we recognize the interests of regimes, international partners and the nation’s people. It seems the interests of the involved actors and the associated asymmetrical power balance determine what

happens and what doesn’t. The interests of the Egyptian government, important coalition partners, international actors, the army and the Egyptian farmers and people determine, in a political arena with possibilities and limitations, what will happen regarding food

sovereignty. This report incorporates the mentioned theories, tries to balance between them and emphasizes the existence of interests.

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3. M

ETHODOLOGY

3.1. L

ITERATURE STUDY

To investigate how the productivity and sustainability of Egypt’s food system can be increased in order to improve food sovereignty, a literature study is carried out combining three different disciplines. Previous research is primarily conducted by a mono-disciplinary perspective hence this interdisciplinary approach establishes new insights and views regarding the food sovereignty issue in Egypt. From the political science discipline, the relation between agricultural policies and food sovereignty will be addressed, the earth sciences will focus on the possibilities to increase food production by means of reclamation and counteracting desertification and the biological perspective will examine the impact of fertilizers on the environment and ecosystems.

3.2. C

OMMON GROUND

The different disciplines that are incorporated in this report share common ground in the field of food productivity. From the political science and earth sciences various processes are examined that influence the food production, from the biology the ecological effects of the food production, focusing on fertilizer use, are addressed. Each

discipline also shares common ground with just one of the other disciplines. Between political science and earth sciences common ground is found in land reclamation and drainage programs. An example is the national drainage program that

was started by the Egyptian government in 1970. The program consists of a series of projects supported by the World Bank that aim to increase food production by counteracting on desertification through the improvement of drainage systems (Holzmann et al, 2008). Between political science and biology common ground is found in fertilizer policies and the resilience theory. Both political and biological systems are resilient and can reach a tipping point pushing the system to a new equilibrium, in this case the biological resilience theory is extended using Repko’s integrative technique of extension to the political dimension. Finally

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common ground between Earth sciences and Biology is found in the enhanced use of fertilizers caused by land reclamation. To reclaim land extensive amount of fertilizers are used, which impact the Nile ecosystem. The common ground found between the disciplines is visualized in figure 1.

3.3. I

NTEGRATION

The different disciplines that are included in this study do not produce any conflicting results or findings but are complementary in answering the research question: ’How can we increase the productivity and

sustainability of Egypt’s food system in order to improve food

sovereignty?’ All disciplinary results focus on a different aspect of the food sovereignty issue in Egypt in such a way that each disciplinary perspective needs the others in order to provide a clear picture of the problem. Food subsidies, land reclamation and desertification influence the food production, for

this food production fertilizers are used that impact the Nile ecosystem and therefore the sustainability of the food system. A sustainable and increased food production will

eventually have a positive effect on the food sovereignty of Egypt. To integrate the common ground that was found for food production and its influence on Egypt’s food sovereignty, the concept of food sovereignty was redefined using Repko’s redefinition technique. This

redefinition was necessary to clearly include the concept of a sustainable food system to food sovereignty as well. With the use of Repko’s integrative technique of organization, the relations between the different concepts are visualized (figure 2).

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4. R

ESULTS

4.1. A

GRICULTURAL

P

OLICIES AND

F

OOD

S

OVEREIGNTY

4.1.1. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW AND STATUS QUO

Egyptian famers in general have little or no incentives to engage in food production. In order to identify the causal mechanisms of this problem and to be able to come up with adequate solutions we have to know how this situation has evolved and resulted in today’s status quo. The government food subsidy system is at the core of the problem.

The involvement of the Egyptian government with the food sector dates back to the years following World War One when the government imported flour and wheat from Australia and sold it at a loss at the domestic market in response to global rising food prices (Gutners, Goma & Nasser, 1999). The history of the subsidy system has two phases that can be

perceived dominant. The first phase describes the expansion of the system to unsustainable levels in the 1980’s and the second phase covers the gradual reduction and contraction of the system to its current status (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). The 23 July revolution in 1952 and the seizure of power by Gamal Abdel Nasser marked the beginning of an era of nationalism and extensive government interference with the agricultural sector (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999; Lewis, 2012; Ahmed, 2001). As part of a broader consumer welfare program the food subsidy system grew significantly in the 1960’s and early 1970’s and contributed to low consumer prices in a time of rapid population growth and urbanization (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). The expansion of the subsidy system was also a response to decreasing public investment in particular agriculture and rocketing global wheat prices by 1973 (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999; Lewis, 2012). The self-sufficiency of Egypt

regarding wheat declined while imports began exceeding the domestic wheat production earlier in 1963; by 1983 Egypt produced only 20% of its domestic wheat needs (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999; Ahmed, 2001). Expenditures on food subsidies increased from 0,2% of the total government expenditures in 1970/71 to 14% of the same total in 1980/81. In the years following the Sixth of October War (1973), Egypt implemented policies with an open-door nature in order to attract foreign investment (Lewis, 2012). The existing food subsidy system however, continued to prevail and resulted in combination with low government investment in a decreasing growth rate and stagnant agricultural sector (Lewis, 2012). For example, farmers found it lucrative to feed their own produced, underpriced and

government controlled wheat to their livestock and to buy highly subsidized bread for own consumption instead (Lewis, 2012).

The food subsidy system was a serious constraint to the growth of the agricultural sector in Egypt and moreover, financial highly unsustainable (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999; Lewis, 2012). Therefore, starting in 1982, Egypt under Mubarak initiated a process of gradually

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reforming the food subsidy system by liberalizing input and output prices and deregulation of the agricultural sector (Lewis, 2012). The government emphasized that correcting market distortions and adjusting prices paid and received by farmers to world prices would make the agricultural sector much more efficient and would reduce Egypt’s increasing dependence on foreign food (Lewis, 2012). In co-operation with the IMF and the World Bank, Egypt began a significant process of structural adjustment and economic reform and gradually reshaped its food subsidy system from a system that was economically unsustainable, constraining agricultural efficiency and production into a system that posed a relative modest claim on government expenditures and increased agricultural efficiency (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). Despite these improvements, there is significant scope for further reforms in the food subsidy system (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999; Lewis, 2012). The social upheaval that accompanied the Arab Spring caused transitional governments and

incumbents all over the MENA region seeking to maintain or retain power to expand food subsidies and adopt economically unsustainable policies that affect the agricultural sector and food security (Rosenberg, 2011).

4.1.2. THE RELATION BETWEEN FOOD POLICIES AND FOOD SOVEREIGNTY

The different policies regarding food subsidies Egypt has implemented over time influenced food production and thereby food sovereignty.

According theory, subsidized distribution of imported foods in the domestic food market tends to decrease producer prices of competing food commodities (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). This price depression is a clear disincentive to produce since it reduces the income of farmers (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). Indirectly, income is transferred from producers to consumers, subsidized distribution of food commodities is therefore affecting food sovereignty (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). It should be noted that particularly the implicit subsidies, which compromise of exchange rate manipulation, quantitative restrictions on trade and price controls, are causing negative effects (Schrank & Wijkstrom, 2003). For example, the Egyptian government overvalues domestic currency and is thereby placing an implicit tax on producers because they can no longer compete in international markets while at the same time providing an implicit import subsidy to consumers (Schrank & Wijkstrom, 2003). Implicit subsidies to consumers are at the same time implicit taxations for farmers who engage in food production (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). The food subsidy system led to the import of large quantities of food commodities, especially grain, and is conflicting with the principle of food sovereignty. Research conducted by von Braun & de Haen, (1983) shows a negative correlation between food subsidies and public investment in agriculture (-0,74) while food subsidies did not affect investment in non-agricultural sectors in the same period. In theory, however, the exact opposite can be true as well. As lined out, implicit food subsidies are causing an income in favor of consumers resulting in increased demand for food commodities from which producers could gain (von Braun & de Haen, 1983).

Consumers will spend the extra income on additional foods and higher quality commodities which will benefit farmers. Conclusions about the relation between food subsidies,

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agricultural production and food sovereignty conflict in different models which have been used to describe them (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). Agricultural output is influenced by complex factors like overlapping seasons, weather conditions, climate, pollution, land degradation, irrigation and institutional constraints and is therefore not easily estimated (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). In addition, the effect of food subsidies is not one dimensional but consists of a set of inter and counteracting economical mechanisms which make it difficult to calculate a net effect. Despite the fact that models have limited explanatory power and both extremes are possible in theory, reality tells us that Egypt’s food demand is to a great extent met with foreign commodities under prevailing conditions (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). Therefore, it is likely that price disincentives are dominant and that agriculture and food sovereignty do not benefit from food subsidies.

Starting from this point of view, liberalization of the agricultural sector would create incentives for farmers to produce and food sovereignty would improve. The extensive liberalization and privatization process that took place in the 1980’s resulted in a significant increase in the productivity of major crops like maize, wheat, rice, fruits and vegetables (Lewis, 2012). However, the liberalization extent the actual long term benefits for the agricultural sector and the scope of implementation are uncertain, mainly due to political context and prevailing established interests.

4.1.3 POLITICAL CONTEXT AND REFORM SCOPE

Research shows that the agricultural sector would gain substantially if the difference

between Egyptian subsidized consumer prices and international prices became less di stinct (von Braun & de Haen, 1983). In the past, the Egyptian government has started a process of liberalizing the agricultural sector which resulted in higher output levels and improved self-sufficiency (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). To what extent liberal principles have to be implemented is yet not a simple question. Not every agricultural sector needs to be

balanced, progressive and liberal. Besides that, protection by providing subsidies can have a positive effect on food production and sovereignty. In agreement with the theory of

‘comparative advantages’, a nation should organize production in a way that export

profitable commodities are utilized. Furthermore, liberalization to full extent is not beneficial due to international market conditions. Liberalizing the agricultural sector in developing countries and Egypt will result in a severe biased trade relation between the rich North and the poor South (Lewis, 2012). While subsidies in developing countries are reduced or abolished under pressure of the IMF they are maintained in the industrialized countries which causes massive displacement of small agricultural producers and therefore will have a negative effect on food sovereignty (Lewis, 2012). In order to increase agricultural

production and improve food sovereignty, but not becoming a victim of a global neoliberal order, Egypt should reform its agricultural policies in the sectors where it is needed and profitable. The government should create incentives to produce, but not abandon its

producers and consumers and continue to support them. Reforms that are beneficial to food sovereignty are reforms that include adjusted liberalization, where needed and a transition

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from implicit subsidies, which create disincentives to produce, to explicit subsidies which are less detrimental in terms of food production and sovereignty. Regarding Egypt however, expanding implicit subsidies is politically far more easier than reducing or abolishing them, especially in the case of food subsidies (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999) Reforms and developments regarding agriculture must therefore be placed in the domestic and international political context (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). Food subsidy policies are political highly sensitive in Egypt. When Nasser was president, the government stated it would guarantee the distribution of basic food supplies by subsidizing these commodities and thereby creating a social safety net. (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). Over time, food subsidies became the illustration of a broader social contract between the state and the population in a nation where political participation is very limited (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). The Egyptian government creates its legitimacy by providing basic food commodities to the population, commitment to provide basic needs by subsidizing food commodities ran simultaneously with political exclusion (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). Food subsidies are perceived to promote political stability. Increases in world food prices are known to have ignited the 1977 riots in Egypt and food security issues are partly responsible for the outbreak of the Arabic Spring (Rosenberg, 2011). The legacy of these events create caution among governments to reduce food subsidies and is a disincentive to reform the

economy towards liberal principles in general (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). Even

gradual reforms are not beneficial to the ruling elite because they spark social unrest and are in potential regime threatening, even though current policies increase the government’s foreign deficit, causing long-term economic problems and depress domestic food production (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999).

Furthermore, the international context is also in favor of maintaining current policies and food subsidies that create disincentives to produce. The United States is by far Egypt’s biggest financial sponsor and benefits from a political stable Middle East and Egyptian support for the Camp David accords with Israel (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). Their interests are in this way conflicting with liberalization and reducing subsidies. Even the program of the IMF has a negative impact hence it begins with devaluating domestic

currency and budget cuts (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). These actions result in increased cost of living, which food subsidies help to offset and a social safety net provided by the government will be more important (Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999).

Reforms regarding agricultural policies will have to take into account the economical and political context, domestically and international. Cautious and gradual liberalization in specific agricultural sectors is key to create incentives to produce and thereby increase food output. At the same time sectors that need support should be assisted. The reforms have to be gradual and accompanied by information and public awareness. Successful policy change can be achieved when the government avoids hurting the interests of dominant coalitions like organized labor and the Muslim Brotherhood (Waterburry, 1989, cited in Gutner, Gomaa & Nasser, 1999). At present, the recent experience of the Arab Spring does not provide a

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positive prospect for agricultural reform in Egypt; the Military is likely to avoid creating social upheaval and new protests by reducing subsidies for food commodities.

Fortunately, reducing food subsidies is not the only way to create incentives for food production and improve food sovereignty. Food production in Egypt is affected by desertification which decreases the amount of arable land and reduces land fertility and productivity per acre. Desertification is mainly caused by salinization, urban encroachment and wind and water erosion. Countering desertification will increase food production by increasing the agricultural output per acre and in addition, these higher yields increase farmers income and thereby create incentives to engage in food production. The National Drainage program, established in 1970, consists of a series of large projects, funded by the World Bank, aiming to counteract desertification and increase food production. In contrast to reducing subsidies, initiatives like the National Drainage Program are not obviously harming the interest of the regime and important coalitions and therefore are more likely to be implemented.

The same reasoning accounts for the practice of land reclamation. Starting from 1952 under Nasser, the government invested in projects that aim to reclaim land from the dessert making it arable and suitable for food production. Since counteracting desertification and land reclamation are practices that not directly affect the interests of the ruling elite, they offer an important alternative that aims to increase food production and thereby improve food sovereignty. The next sections will investigate how these practices can increase food productivity in order to improve Egypt’s food sovereignty.

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4.2. D

ESERTIFICATION

In order to investigate how counteracting desertification can improve the food productivity in Egypt, first the underlying desertification processes and their impact on the arable land are examined. Subsequently countermeasures to control desertification are discussed. There are three main desertification processes in Egypt, salinization, urban encroachment on the expenses of arable land and erosion.

4.2.1. SALINIZATION

Intensive irrigation in arid regions can lead to salinization. Practically all the water used for irrigation contains dissolved salts. When the land is irrigated the water could either

evaporate, be taken up by the crop or percolate down into the soil. Whenever the water is taken up by a crop or evaporates the dissolved salts are left behind and accumulate in the soil. However, through the percolation of water into the soil these salts can be leached. Salinization is therefore highly dependent on the drainage of a soil and the evaporation rate. In poorly drained soils the groundwater comes closer to surface; in this case the water can rise to the surface by capillary forces and subsequently evaporate. The soil is then water logged making downward flow of water impossible and causing salts to accumulate. The soil salinity eventually has a negative effect on plant growth and therefore the production of food (Ghassemi, Jakeman & Nix, 1995). In Egypt 100% of the croplands are irrigated since evaporation is high and precipitation is low. The intensive irrigation and sometimes

insufficient drainage in this hot and arid climate makes salinization a major problem in Egypt. The causes of soil salinity in Egypt differ for the two main agricultural areas, the Nile Valley and the Nile Delta (Kotb et al, 2000).

In the Nile Valley salinization became a significant problem after embankment of the Nile River. Construction of the old low Aswan dam started in 1899 and eventually in 1970 the construction of the high Aswan was finished. As result of the control of the water flow natural flooding, which leached the salts before the Nile was dammed, did not occur anymore. Without an adequate drainage system groundwater quickly rose due to excess irrigation. Soils became water logged and salts started to accumulate in the topsoil were the water evaporated. These high water tables caused by over-irrigation and insufficient

drainage systems are the main cause for soil salinization in the Nile Valley. Other factors contributing to salinization in the valley are irrigation with salty drainage water,

accumulation of water in low-lying areas and overuse of agrochemicals (Kotb et al, 2000). In the Nile Delta large scale groundwater withdrawal has caused the water table to decline. Consequently seawater intruded into the aquifers, irrigation with these salty waters are the main reason for salinization in the delta. As seawater intrusions mainly occurs near the sea, soil salinity is at it severest in the northern part of the delta. Irrigation with salty drainage water and to a lesser extent insufficient drainage systems contribute to soil salinity in the Nile Delta (Kotb et al, 2000).

Previous studies have estimated the percentage of cultivated land that is affected by soil salinity. The percentage of affected soils varies across the different agricultural regions in

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Egypt; 60% of the soils were affected in the Lower Delta, 25% in the Middle Delta, 20% in the Upper Delta and Middle Egypt, and 25% in the Upper Egypt (Kotb et al, 2000). Consequently, over one third of all agricultural lands in Egypt are affected by soil salinity. The impact of this salinization on food productivity is significant; studies estimate that potential productivity is reduced by 30 to 35 percent as a result of water logging and soil salinity (Shalaby et al, 2004).

4.2.2. URBAN ENCROACHMENT ON THE EXPENSES OF ARABLE LAND

Egypt’s population of 84 million is still rapidly growing, with about 1.5 million each year (Hussein, 2011). The population growth and urbanization, forced Egypt’s cities to expand. Practically all cities are located in the fertile regions of the Nile valley and delta and

therefore these expansions are mostly at the expense of arable land. Different studies investigated these land cover changes with the use of remote sensing data. In 1996 it was reported that Egypt already lost a total of 912,000 feddans of its arable land due to urbanization. feddans are the Egyptian measure for area and one feddan equals 0.42 hectares. A more recent Study by Shalably (2004) indicated that each year another 20,000 hectares of highly fertile agricultural lands are lost as a result of urbanization. These numbers indicate that the total loss is around 10% percent of the total amount of arable land in Egypt, thereby having a significant impact on the food production (Shalaby et al, 2004).

4.2.3. WIND AND WATER EROSION

In desert areas wind erosion is a widely spread problem, mainly because the wind makes sand dunes mobile leading to sand encroachment. Arable lands, especially on the edge of the desert, can be threatened by sand encroachment, as the fertile top soil becomes covered by sand. The last three decades shoreline erosion has also been an active degradation factor. The Aswan dam blocks the transport of sediments through the Nile, because of this lack of sediments that is transported to the Nile delta, the delta slowly erodes. However, compared to salinization and urban encroachment the impact of erosion on food production is insignificant (Shalaby et al, 2004).

4.2.4. COUNTERACTING DESERTIFICATION

Salinization and Urban encroachment on expenses of arable land are the two main

desertification processes affecting the arable land in Egypt. As urbanization and population growth are to a large extent inevitable processes, caused by development and progress, countermeasures against these processes can hardly be taken. However, this is not the case for salinization, against which serious actions have been undertaken.

To counteract soil salinity and water logging Egypt’s government started the National Drainage Program in 1970. The aim of this program is to improve drainage and irrigation through gradual reforms, improved management and new technologie. The program mainly consists of a series of large projects that were supported by the World Bank. From 1980-1985 the Nile delta drainage project 1 and 2 and the Upper Egypt drainage project 1 and 2

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were carried out, improving the drainage system in the delta and upper Egypt by applying tile drainage, constructing pumps, and remodeling open drains. Drainage project V improved drainage further on a national scale and was closed in 1994. In this paragraph a closer look will be taken at the two most recent projects; National Drainage Project 1 and 2, which built on the efforts of these earlier projects. The National Drainage Project 1 was implemented between 1992 and 2000. The goal of the project was to increase food productivity on 310,000 hectares. To achieve this more than 8,500 km of collector drains and 67,000 km of subsurface drainage were installed and 1,200 km of open drains were rehabilitated. These measures improved the drainage system and evacuated excess water from the areas. Apart from these technical improvements the institutional and community capacity was also increased, by different training courses and programs. Eventually this resulted in a successful food productivity increase of up to 20% on 312,000 hectares. National Drainage Project 2 started in 2001 and is projected to finish in 2015. The goal of the project is to increase food productivity on another 336,000 hectares, from which 400,000 farm household could

benefit. The project is projected to finish in 2015, by that time all these projects together will have installed modern drainage systems across Egypt on approximately 1.4 million hectares (Holzmann et al, 2008). Apart from these improvements on the irrigation and drainage system other countermeasures should be taken against Desertification. Protection of the entire Nile Delta and further groundwater regulations could decrease the impact of sea water intrusion and shoreline erosion (Shalaby et al, 2004).

Initiatives like the National Drainage program are politically less sensitive and therefore more likely to be implemented. Projects that counteract desertification and thereby aim to increase food production could therefore contribute to improving the food sovereignty of Egypt in the future. Besides the positive effects of counteracting desertification on the current arable land, there is an enormous potential in the reclamation of land from the dessert, which will be examined in the next section.

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4.3 L

AND RECLAMATION

In the previous section counteracting desertification was described as one of the techniques that can be issued to increase the food productivity and therefore food sovereignty. This chapter shall elaborate on another technique called land reclamation. Land reclamation is the act of creating agricultural land from arid desert land and has been the main method used to increase the national agricultural productivity since the 1950s. Knowledge of the reason for this rise and the impact of it on food productivity will help to assess the contribution of land reclamation to food sovereignty. In this way land reclamation will be considered a process that can create new incentives for food production or for food sovereignty as food subsidies have diminished these incentives.

4.3.1. LAND REDISTRIBUTION AND LAND RECLAMATION AFTER THE REVOLUTION OF 1952

It was not until after the Egyptian Revolution of 1952 that land reclamation got adopted by the government and became widely spread creating more agricultural land. One of the main reasons for the Revolution in 1952 was the persistence of rural poverty and the mounting wealth of the landowning Egyptian elite, the Pasha class (Bush, 2007). The driving force of land reclamation after the revolution was the commitment to help the poverty-stricken rural population as well as creating more agricultural land due to a rising population. Another important goal of the post-revolution regime to ensure more jobs was land distribution (Adriansen, 2009). The land redistribution and land reclamation that followed in the decades after the Revolution created more and more feddans. According to Barnes (2012b) Egypt has reclaimed 3 million acres of land in the last fifty years. Similarly more and more people became landowners due to land redistribution. Especially in the 1950s where 12% of the land was redistributed, thereby providing new land for the rural poor. This created the new incentive of landownership. With more farmers having more land to produce, food

productivity rises. Due to the correllation between food productivity and food sovereignty, this causes food sovereignty to increase.

In both 1997 and 2009 two new projects were initiated with the aim of 1.25 million feddans to be reclaimed by 2017, and 3.1 million feddans to be reclaimed by 2030 inducing private-public partnerships in the new land (Barnes, 2012a). Moreover increasing food productivity and therefore food sovereignty.

4.3.2 THE TECHNIQUES FOR RECLAIMING LAND

Water is the essential ingredient for land reclamation. Admittedly water is not the only ingredient, other inputs are also needed such as fertilizers and treatments to adjust the soil texture. However, the river Nile is the only and limited water resource in Egypt and is therefore one of the limiting factors for food productivity. The first step in turning desert into arable land is to wash water through the soil to leach salts out of the top layers. In this way the salinity level is reduced to a tolerable level for crops to grow.

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Other water sources in Egypt than the Nile consist of groundwater, precipitation and atmospheric humidity. Groundwater by the local rains is almost only applicable in the northern coastal region, as rain pores trough dunes and infiltrates the porous layer (Hanna, 1995). It then reaches and impermeable layer, creating a water source. Further groundwater sources are found in the Nile Delta area where over the year water has accumulated in the ground. These only account for 2 billion cubic metres, whereas Egypt has a water treaty with Sudan for 55.5 billion cubic metres of the water of the Nile (Darwish, 2013). So more

reclaiming of land is bound to a limit of 55.5 billion cubic metres of water that can be retreated by the Nile. Other water must be imported or generated.

The other limiting factor for the sustainability factor in the food sovereignty of Egypt are the fertilizers used in land reclamation, as the desert soil is not meant to be cultivated. The sandy soils of Egypt are low in nitrogen levels and low in organic matter content. For this reason there are insufficient micro and macro nutrients. Secondly sandy soils do not have the appropriate texture to maintain humidity and preserve nutrients. Thirdly for farmers there is a difficulty in levelling the surface layer, for this reason slope cultivation is commonly used. Sandy soils are also highly influenced by wind erosion which causes continual change in the surface layer. Lastly there is a presence of different elements such as soluble salts (calcium carbonates and gypsum) and harmful elements such as boron and selenium

resulting from rock fragmentation. The discontinuation of silt deposits after the construction of the High Dam is one of the main reason for this. Because of all these factors that make sandy soils less appropriate for cultivation, a lot of fertilizers and soil texture techniques are needed. Especially nitrogen fertilizers have doubled in years with reclamation expansion. But all the basic nutrients like phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen are extensively applied in Egypt compared to the world. According to the World Bank (2014) Egypt consumed 605.1 kg/ha of fertilizers while the world only used 133 kg/ha arable land in 2011. This factor could also influences the food sovereignty as imported fertilizers and pesticides are also used but Egypt produces almost the full majority of the fertilizer it uses, such selfreliance increases the food sovereignty.

4.3.3. FROM LAND RECLAMATION TO FOOD SOVEREIGNTY

In conclusion it can be said that land reclamation will influence food productivity positively as it increases the amount of arable land. Land reclamation will create new incentives that will also increase the food productivity and therefore the food sovereignty. However land reclamation has limiting factors such as the availability of water in the Nile and the abundant use of pesticides and fertilizers. The use of fertilizers and pesticides poses threats to the environment and health. In order to increase food sovereignty by land reclamation and counteracting desertification an assessment is made in the next chapter on the impact of these practices on the sustainability factor in the concept of food sovereignty.

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4.4 F

ERTILIZATION AND

S

USTAINABILITY

Now that different methods have been introduced to increase the food productivity of Egypt, this paragraph will elaborate on the subject of chemical fertilizers (from here on named ‘fertilizers’) and sustainable agriculture, as these will play an important role in the increasing of the food productivity of Egypt. By explaining why fertilizers are so deeply embedded in the Egyptian agriculture and what impact they can have on the ecosystem, a better understanding for this problem is created. Last but not least, a possible solution for this problem is adduced which can ensure that future land reclamation and agriculture can be carried out in a sustainable way.

4.4.1 A SHORT INSIGHT IN THE AGRICULTURAL HISTORY –THE GREEN REVOLUTION

At a research centre for crop improvement (the ancestor of the I.W.M.I.C.; International Wheat and Maize Improvement Centre) in Mexico, four American plant

geneticists/pathologists faced a major challenge; produce more food on the same amount of arable land, so that the net import of wheat and corn in Mexico would drop. In 1943, the four scientists invented hybrids of wheat and corn seeds that would, in time, trigger an actual revolution (the Green Revolution) in the agricultural sector across the whole world. In the next twenty-three years the wheat yields tripled and the corn yields doubled (George, 1991).

As a result of the success with the two crops in Mexico, the demand for hybridized crops that were also able to grow in Asia increased. To be able to conduct this research with a primary focus on rice, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) was founded in the Philippines. The IRRI also succeeded in hybridizing rice seeds with major yield improvements. At that time, the institute already gave a word of caution. The caution stated that the high yields could only be achieved when the seeds were given the proper inputs; a right amount of fertilizers, irrigation, drainage and protection against diseases. However, despite this caution, the hybrids became commonly used all over the world, and little thought was spent on the possible consequences that a shift to a hybrid agriculture might have.

To be able to prevent possible disasters and guarantee that Egypt will have a sustainable agricultural system in the future, weaknesses of the hybrid agricultural system should be brought to light. This is where the caution message of the IRRI about hybrids could be of good use. By giving a list of inputs that are necessary for high yield hybrid agriculture, IRRI also tells in what way the agrilcutural system is vulnarable. As can be read above, the weaknesses of the system are: drainage, irrigation, pesticides and fertilizer use. By solving the weaknesses in the hybrid agricultural system, the system becomes more sustainabl e and continuous national food production can be guaranteed. The chapter ‘Counteracting

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help of the National Drainage Program. Because fertilizer use is already a substantial subject to focus on, this report will not cover the impact of pesticides.

As this paragraph has already shown that the Green Revolution caused fertilizer use to manifest itself in the agricultural sector, the following paragraph will elabora te on what the current state of fertilizer use in Egypt is.

4.4.2 FERTILIZER USE IN EGYPT

The use of fertilizers expanded greatly across the world as a result of the Green Revolution (George, 1991). At this time, the use of fertilizers is still integrated in the current agricultural sector. The main reason for this ongoing integration could be that the whole concept still works; higher yields are gained because of the use of hybridized seeds and fertilizers. Besides that, methods like land reclamation also require high amounts of

fertilizers.

Figure 3 shows the increase of fertilizer use in Egypt every 10 years from 1968 to 1998. The effect of the Green Revolution can clearly been

seen. Fertilizer use, but in this case particularly Nitrogen, has rocketed from almost 300.000 tonnes to more than 900.000 tonnes per year over three decades time.

Besides the effect of the Green

Revolution, in the specific case of Egypt, fertilizer use could even be more deeply embedded in the agricultural systems since the construction of the High Aswan Dam. As a result of the High Aswan Dam, there has been a shift in the suspended sediment loads in the Nile downstream of the Aswan Dam, see figure 4 (Biswas & Tortajada, 2012). Because the Aswan Dam and its Nasser Lake act as a filter for sediment, water with a very low amount

Figure 3: Annual consumption of N, P2O5, and K20

in Egypt (van Bergen & Isherwood, 2006)

Figure 4: Suspended sediment loads in the Nile downstream of Aswan (Biswas & Tortajada, 2012)

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of suspended sediment is flowing downstream after the dam. White (1988) states that the Nile silt is a principal source of soil fertility of the Nile delta. The declined amount of silt that now reaches the Nile delta is low on nutrients and it can hardly provide high crop yields. For many farmers, this could be a cause to use even more fertilizers.

This paragraph has shown that fertilizer use has increased substantially in the past decades, and that as a result of the Aswan Dam fertilizer use might even be more deeply embedded in the Egyptian agricultural system than was expected. But what does an increase in fertilizer use have to do with the sustainable agricultural future of Egypt? Well, when high amounts of fertilizer are used in the wrong way, they can end up damaging ecosystems. It is commonly accepted that when agriculture results in the damaging of ecosystems throughout the counrty, the agricultural system is not sustainable. As one of the main goals of this report is to find ways to increase agricultural sustainability, damage to ecosystems has to be

minimalized. However, if and when damage is done to an ecosystem, is dependant on the Resilience of the ecosystem. The concept of Resilience is explained in the next paragraph.

4.4.3 RESILIENCE THEORY

Although the use of high amounts of fertilizer is not necessarily harmful for the environment, it can become harmful when plant nutrient uptake is not efficient. If the plant nutrient uptake efficiency is low, a surplus of nutrients stay in the ground and can be washed away by rain or irrigation. This fenomenon is called leaching. When large amounts of the nutrients leach into aquatic ecosystems like the Nile delta, the response of the ecosystem is dependent on its Resilience. According to Holling (1973), who was the first to introduce the concept of Resilience, an ecosystem consists of relationships between organisms that form interlinked systems. Resilience determines the persistence of these relationships and is a measure of the ability of these systems to absorb changes and still persist. If the changes which the ecosystem is subject to become bigger and more severe, the ecosystem can have trouble persisting in its current state. The resilience becomes smaller and the ecosystem is pushed to its so called ‘tipping point’ or

‘threshold’, see figure 5 (Beisner, Haydon & Cuddington, 2003). This means that the

interlinked systems cannot persist under the circumstances and that the ecosystem shifts to another stable equilibrium under which the systems can persist. When an ecosystem has shifted to another equilibrium, returning to the previous equilibrium is not very likely.

Figure 5: Environmental stress and tipping point (Beisner, Haydon & Cuddington, 2003).

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As Egypt has been using increased amounts of fertilizers, and the fertilizer uptake is not always as efficient as it was thought to be, the Resilience of ecosystems is a cause for concern for Egypt. When the fertilizer use of land reclamation is added to this sum, the Resilience of systems is even more severely tested.

This paragraph has explained the concept of the Resilience of an ecosystem. As a result of leaching, nutrients from fertilizers have found there way into aquatic ecosystems of Egypt. This damages the ecosystems because the persistance of the relationship between

organisms is severly tested and pushed towards their tipping point. As was stated in the previous paragraph, when ecosystems are damaged as a result of agriculture, the

agricultural system is not sustainable. In order to decrease the amount of fertil izers leaching into the aquatic ecosystems, and with that decreasing the damage done to ecosystems, new ways of fertilization should be explored. The following paragraph will introduce a new fertilization technique that could help the agricultural system of Egypt become more sustainable.

4.4.4 BIO-FERTILIZERS

As the demand for more sustainable agriculture increases across the world, new fertilization techniques start to arise of which one is better or more efficient than the other. An example of these new techniques is the use of bio-fertilizers. This form of fertilizers hold plant

growth-promoting microorganisms, which can improve nutrient uptake efficiency (Rose et al., 2014). A study in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta showed that the bio-fertilizer can replace 23% - 52% of nitrogen fertilizer without loss of yield. The bio-fertilizer does react differently on different conditions and amounts of chemical fertilizer.

To make this technique a bit more relevant for this paper, Yanni & Dazzo (2010) conducted research with bio-fertilizers on rice production in the Nile delta and found yield increases of 5% - 20%. Besides that, in a two year study of Hellal, Mahfouz & Hassan (2011), bio-fertilizers have proven to generate the same amount but higher quality of yield with only 2/3 of the chemical fertilizers applied to the soil.

As these studies show, new techniques for fertilization are emerging and can come in handy in combination with other methods, such as land reclamation, for an increase in food

productivity in Egypt. Besides that, with the help of the bio-fertilizers, Egypt can also try to increase sustainable agriculture in the future.

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5. C

ONCLUSION

To avoid food security issues, social unrest and political instability, Egypt has to reduce its dependency on foreign foods and improve its food sovereignty. A prerequisite to improve food sovereignty is increasing the national food production. This resulted into the following research question: ’How can the productivity and sustainability of Egypt’s food system be increased in order to improve food sovereignty’?

This can be achieved by policy reforms that have to take into account the economical and political context, domestically and international. Cautious and gradual liberalization in specific agricultural sectors is key to create incentives to produce and thereby increase food production. At the same time, sectors that need support should be assisted. Successful policy change can be achieved when new legislations avoid hurting the interest of the ruling elite and dominant coalition partners. At present, the extensive food subsidy system is not likely to be reduced since it is political highly sensitive and benefits the ruling elite. In addition, the recent experience of the Arab Spring does not provide an optimistic prospect for agricultural reform in Egypt. However, actions that do not directly hurt the interest of dominant actors and are likely to create incentives to produce and increase food production are measures like counteracting desertification and land reclamation. Urban encroachment and salinization are the desertification processes that have the most sincere impact on food production because the reduce the amount of arable land. Since it is hard to take measures against urban encroachment, serious efforts have been taken against salinization the last decades. Most important of these is the National Drainage Program which consists of a series of projects that improved the drainage and irrigation systems across Egypt and

thereby increased food productivity. As there is still potential in improving drainage systems, the Egyptian government as well as the international community should make efforts to continue and maintain certain projects in the future. Besides, over the last 50 years Egypt reclaimed an area of about three million acres form the desert which significantly increased domestic food production. Investing in land reclamation is therefore beneficial to food sovereignty and should be a focus of governments and institutions. However, to crea te and maintain this land, an extensive amount of water and fertilizers is used which has a negative impact on the sustainability of the food system. In order to create a sustainable system that is capable of providing food for the Egyptian people in the long run, production techniques have to take environmental issues into account and use bio-fertilizers instead of

conventional fertilizers.

To conclude, recognition of the political and economical context could help to improve the food sovereignty of Egypt by gradually liberalizing the food sector and by investing more in counteracting desertification and land reclamation projects.

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6. D

ISCUSSION

The central aim of this report is to explore ways that increase the productivity and

sustainability of Egypt’s food system in order to increase the food sovereignty of Egypt. To be able to bring out tangible advices for Egypt to increase her food sovereignty, a more specific definition of food sovereignty has been used in this report: ‘having control over food production in a sustainable food system, on the national level being independent on foreign food aid and imports and thereby not being vulnerable to international conditions and price fluctuations’ . By using this definition of food sovereignty, a more specific area is delimited in which all three disciplines are able to find problems and propose additional solutions. As the definition states, an important factor of food sovereignty is control, wich is less stressed in other available definitions. However, this report focusses on increasing the sustainable food production and not on the control aspect.

Though, this focus represents mainly a nationalistic point of view which makes the report in accordance with realism. When switching from this nationalistic perspective to for instance an ecological perspective, questions may arise concerning the results. An example of a question could be: ‘Is it disirable for a country to produce a substantial part of its own food, while 96% of the country consists of desert?’ When looking at the results, one would probably say it is not disirable, as high amounts of fertilizer need to be used and the same food can be produced more efficiently in other parts of the world. When superfically thinking about this question, these arguments seem valid. However, current politcal situations can escalate quickly; if the exporting countries decrease their export, the

importing countries are affected. Being less dependent on imports from other countries can seem profitable. Therefore, this nationalistic point of view might not even be that bad.

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