Psychological stress factors and their influence on the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer

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University of Amsterdam

BACHELOR THESIS

Business Administration

Psychological stress factors and their influence on the outcome

of penalty shootouts in soccer

submitted by

Michael Lopez Diaz

Student Number: 11867884 Date of submission: June 21st, 2020

Supervisor: drs. Rob van Hemert

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2 Statement of Originality

This document is written by Student Michael Lopez Diaz who declares to take full responsibility for the contents of this document.

I declare that the text and the work presented in this document are original and that no sources other than those mentioned in the text and its references have been used in creating it.

The Faculty of Economics and Business is responsible solely for the supervision of completion of the work, not for the contents.

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Abstract

This research project aims to investigate the effects of presumed psychological stress factors on the outcome of soccer penalty shootouts. Therefore, the following research question is asked: Do the psychological stress factors Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick have a significant impact on the outcome of a penalty shootout in soccer, and if so, which impact is the biggest? To answer the research question, an online data collection was conducted, to create a sample from penalty shootouts from various

competitions. The results of the study show that no significant correlations between the dependent and independent variables, which are the subject of the research question, can be proven. Based on these findings, it is recommended that other variables are considered in the research question, which could prove a possible influence of psychological stress factors on the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer.

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1. Introduction

The following paper addresses the importance of psychological stress factors for the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer. In the upcoming introduction, penalty shootouts will be explained and their importance for the sport will be highlighted. A connection to the psychological stress factors will be made to provide the fundamentals for the thesis.

1.1. Subject Matter

Widely implemented in the 1970s, penalty shootouts have accounted for some of the most dramatic events in soccer (Hollmann, 2006). As the ultimate decider for the most prestigious knockout tournaments, the importance of penalty shootouts can’t be understated. Whether it takes place after a draw in one-off knockout matches like in the World Cup, or two-legged ties as in the Champions League, the rules of the shootout are the same: Five penalties, which must be taken by different players, get awarded to each team. The team with the most goals wins the standoff. In the event of a tie after five penalty shoot-outs, the penalty shoot-out will continue indefinitely with "sudden death rounds" until one team emerges victorious. As shootouts always decide the outcome of a tie, determining if a team advances in a competition or even wins the tournament, the stakes are inevitably enormous, especially in professional soccer (FIFA, 2018). Considering these circumstances it is unquestionable that the psychological pressures on penalty takers are huge (Jordet et al., 2007). Since there are not only large financial profits to be earned in modern soccer but also widespread interest by spectators and fans in the outcome of tournaments, it is critical to take a closer look at psychological stress factors influencing the outcome of penalty shootouts, as they are not seldom the deciding success factor in soccer. Psychological stress factors influencing the outcome of a penalty shootout are widespread and diverse, just as the topic of psychology itself. The amount of mental stress built up before a penalty can likely be associated with several factors, whether it be the timing of the penalty within the shootout or a competition, as well as the perceived importance of the kick in a given situation. Due to uncertainty in prior research regarding psychology influencing the outcome of penalty shootouts (Jordet et al., 2007) and, due to previous studies showing contradicting results about the influence of various strategies on kick success (Noel et al., 2014), a need for further research on the topic of penalty shootouts and the influence of psychological stress factors on their success is present. While, for a qualitative evaluation of the topic, sources such as previously conducted research need to be taken into account, it is also important to look into subjective views as well, such as player interviews after shootouts. This can help to better

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evaluate the individuality of psychological effects on penalty takers, and how their responses to stressful conditions differ.

The main aim of the study is to further analyze a variety of psychological factors that influence the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer. In order to do that, several components were chosen that are assumed to cause stress and other mental pressures during a penalty shootout and are therefore expected to affect the outcome of penalty kicks. To be able to build this research upon observable facts rather than interviews, this paper aims to perform a quantitative approach to observing the matter. To be able to do this, measurable elements had to be identified within the observable dataset that is produced during a shootout. As a result of that, the model measures four elements analyzing performance differences for various psychological factors such as Competitions, Kick Number, Rounds of Competitions, and whether a kick is decisive.

1.2. Research Question

The following research question is based on the presumption that these variables influence the outcome of a penalty shootout:

Do the psychological stress factors Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick have a significant impact on the outcome of a penalty shootout in soccer and if so, which impact is the biggest?

In the following section, I will lay out the theoretical framework, based on the ideas stated in the introduction.

2. Theoretical Framework

The theoretical framework will provide a breakdown of the implications psychological stress has on the human mind and body, along with famous examples of high-stress situations during penalty shootouts. Furthermore, the current state of research on the topic will be explained, as well as providing the from the theory derived hypotheses as a theoretical basis of the study.

2.1. Psychological Stress and Famous Examples

In the field of psychology, stress is classified as a type of psychological pain. According to Mental Health America, the body responds to small amounts of stress with an increase in blood pressure, heart rate, respiration, metabolism, and muscle blood flow (MHA, 2020). Even though this reaction is meant to support the body in reacting to high-pressure situations, excessive amounts of stress can lead to bodily harm and prove detrimental to cognitive functions such as concentration and the ability to focus (Sapolsky, 2004). Mental stress is often caused by external

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factors, putting a great deal of strain on the recipient of mental pressures, causing anxiety, discomfort, and a wide array of other negative emotions (Jones, Bright & Clow, 2001). As the effects of mental stress have been investigated and explored in a wide field of studies, this paper intends to shed more light on its effects on penalty takers in soccer shootouts.

A famous example of the extreme psychological effects a penalty shootout can have in the highest ranks of the sport is the Champions League Final 2012, in which Bayern Munich took on Chelsea FC in their very own Allianz Arena in Munich. After a “traumatic” end to regular time for the Germans, with a late equalizer for Chelsea and a missed penalty in extra time, the game went to penalties (NTV, 2012). Due to the immense pressure to win the Final in their home stadium and the dramatic events in the previously played 120 minutes, several Bayern-Players refused to take penalties in the shootout, among them midfielder Toni Kroos. “I missed a penalty in the previous Semifinal against Real Madrid”, Kroos later said. “That’s why I thought: If five other players are willing to take a penalty, I’d rather want them to shoot” (SZ, 2016). The German club ended up losing the highly prestigious final in the penalty shootout, losing out on the opportunity to be the first club in the history of the Champions League to win a final in their own stadium (NTV, 2012).

In another instance, former English national team player and current Coach of the English Men’s National Soccer Team Gareth Southgate described the feelings of missing a penalty on one of the biggest stages in soccer. “You never get over it - you can't help but feel regret”, Southgate described his state of mind after missing the decisive penalty in the 1996 European Championship Semifinal against Germany, which ultimately led to his Team being knocked out of the prestigious Tournament (BBC, 2019).

Examples like these come to show the immense psychological pressures professional players underlie when taking penalties in big Tournaments. While every penalty taker deals with stress differently, certain stressors that occur during a penalty shootout can be identified and analyzed. Previous research has already targeted similar situations of psychological pressure to better understand the mental circumstances players find themselves in.

2.2. Literature Review

The psychological effects pressure can have on skillful performance have been demonstrated in previous studies. In his 1984 study “Choking Under Pressure: Self-Consciousness and Paradoxical Effects of Incentives on Skillful Performance“, Baumeister has identified a connection between high-pressure situations and an increase in self-consciousness in the

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performers own process, resulting in performance decrements. In his quantitative study, Baumeister conducted several experiments with students, examining “the effects of conscious attention to the performers' own process of performance” and how it affects the outcome of their actions. The results of this study show that pressure can be a significant factor in any relevant pressure-situation (Baumeister, 1984). Previous psychological analyses of penalty shootouts, such as in the article “Penalty shootouts – it’s not a lottery” by the British psychological society from 2018 have drawn from Baumeister's findings and applied them to the investigation of penalty shootouts in soccer, assuming that such shootouts are indeed situations in which self-consciousness is increased and therefore suit the insights gained by the paper (Callen, 2018).

Building on the findings of Baumeister’s 1984 paper, in their paper “On the Fragility of Skilled Performance: What Governs Choking Under Pressure?”, the researchers Beilock and Carr took a closer look at the psychology of high-pressure situations, examining why the executions of well-learned skills often fail under pressure situations. The example chosen as a task to take the center stage in the experiments was putting in golf, which can be classified as a rather frequently used technique in the sport. In the past, putting was referred to by the experienced golfer Ty Waldon as “43 percent of the game”, making a key part of the sport (Gwynne, 2015). In other experiments to test the matter, the researchers compared the pressure of the rather complex golfing task to a simpler, alphabetic arithmetic task. The results showed that choking only occurred in golf putting, which is said to demonstrate a sequential complexity and proceduralization, while the alphabetic arithmetic task showed neither of these characteristics. showing that these two components of the task determine susceptibility to choking at various levels of expertise. Additionally, it was found that self-consciousness training eliminated the chances of choking from golf putting, therefore supporting Baumeister’s findings of the importance of self-consciousness and therefore showing the relevance of psychology in this matter (Beilock & Carr, 2001).

Building on the logic that high-pressure situations affect skillful performance, in a 2007 paper Jordet has analyzed multiple effects, including stress, and their specific influence on the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer. The analyzed factors consisted of psychology, skill, physiology, and chance. The goal of the study was to find out which of those factors influences the outcome of penalty shootouts the most. To do this, the researchers analyzed 41 shootouts and 409 kicks from World Cups, European Championships, and Copa America tournaments between 1976 and 2004. The study concluded that out of the before stated factors, psychological

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effects, consisting of the variables Tournament and Kick Number, have proven the most significant, while other factors such as fatigue and skill have shown to be less or not at all significant regarding the outcome of penalty shootouts (Jordet et al., 2007).

Building a bridge between the psychology of competitive environments and the topic of penalty shootouts, the researchers Kocher, Lenz, and Sutter conducted the 2012 study “Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: New Evidence from Randomized Natural Experiments”. The paper examined psychological pressure in dynamic competitive environments, where feedback about performance is provided before the end of the competition, such as in penalty shootouts. The paper hypothesizes based on previous research, that a first-mover advantage could be apparent, as a late first-mover is thought to be subject to bigger psychological pressures. The paper states, that while previous research has found evidence for this phenomenon, the researchers couldn’t find any proof for this occurrence in their larger dataset. As a result, no significant psychological first-mover advantage could be detected, questioning the psychological pressures created through this system (Kocher, Lenz & Sutter, 2012).

Based on some of the previous findings, linking stress and performance, Jordet and Elferink-Gemser (2012) have conducted a qualitative study on the matter called “Stress, Coping, and Emotions on the World Stage: The Experience of Participating in a Major Soccer Tournament Penalty Shootout“, in which the researchers interviewed eight players who participated in a European Championship penalty shootout, analyzing the experience of stressors, coping and emotions which extensively occur during a shootout. As a result, they found that anxiety was the most common emotion among the interviewed penalty takers. The participants in the study described their experience as “masochistic” and “nerve-jangling” (Jordet & Elferink-Gemser, 2012).

Looking towards the previous findings on psychological pressure in regards to penalty shootouts, the researchers Furley, Dicks, Stendtke and Memmert analyzed the effects of psychological pressure on penalty takers in a shootout, shown in the form of “hasting and hiding”. According to their 2012 paper “‘Get it out the way. The wait’s killing me.’ hastening and hiding during soccer penalty kicks”, these characteristics are said to be present when a player is “rushing through penalty preparation and not looking at the goal when preparing the penalty kick”. These attributes are said to be associated with negative penalty taking performance and supposedly affect the behavior of the opposing goalkeeper. The results of the

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study show that players showing hasting and hiding behaviors during shootouts are perceived more negatively by their peers on the pitch. It has also been shown that indeed goalkeepers initiate their movement later if said characteristics are shown by a penalty taker. In conclusion, the paper shows the importance of psychological behavior in sports, affecting the expected performance and behavior of opposing players in penalty situations in soccer (Furley et al, 2012).

Taking a similar approach by focusing on player interaction and perception during penalty shootouts, the researchers Memmert and Hütterman analyzed factors that were likely to influence successful performance in a penalty shootout for kickers and goalkeepers in their 2013 paper “Dueling in the penalty box: evidence-based recommendations on how shooters and goalkeepers can win penalty shootouts in soccer”. Various strategic aspects in the shooter-goalkeeper interaction were analyzed to find the most significant factors affecting kick outcome. As a result, the researchers summarized the findings and recommendations from previous papers, stating that various physical, as well as psychological techniques, can give a player the edge in a penalty shootout. Examples for psychological techniques stated in the paper that can lead to success are, from the goalkeepers' side, “extend the temporal sequence as long as possible so that the referee does not permit an immediate shot”, or from the penalty takers side, to have “tested pre-performance routines at his/her disposal” (Memmert et al., 2013). Lastly, building upon a combination of findings from previous paper regarding the effects of psychological pressure on the outcome of penalty shootouts and skilled performance overall, the researchers Arrondel, Duhautois and Laslier took a closer look at the psychological effects penalty takers respond to in their 2018 paper analyzing penalty kicks from French cup competitions called “Decision Under Psychological Pressure: The Shooter's Anxiety at the Penalty Kick“. They considered mental aspects such as “fear of losing”, “fear of winning”, “expected outcomes” and “how much is at stake”. As a result of their efforts, the researchers concluded that the probability of scoring is negatively impacted by the factors “what is at stake”, which is described to be “the impact of my scoring on the expected probability that my team eventually wins“, as well as “the difficulty of the situation“, which is described as “the ex ante probability of my team eventually losing“ (Arrondel, Duhautois & Laslier, 2018). These results come to show the circumstantial pressure many professional soccer players find themselves in when taking a penalty in a shootout.

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The mentioned papers have not only shown a significant effect of psychological factors on the outcome of penalty shootouts, but also the variety in which those effects occur. These findings have implicated that there is a multitude of additional information to be discovered and analyzed in reference to psychological factors influencing the outcome of penalty shootouts. Therefore, this topic will be further investigated in this paper. Furthermore, previous studies have explained the need for further investigation of the Topic (Jordet et al., 2007).

2.3. Hypotheses

Building on the knowledge gathered through reviewing the literature of previous studies in the field of psychology and penalty shootouts next to famous examples of players choking in penalty shootouts on the big stage, four hypotheses have been created based on the elements Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition and Decisiveness of Kick, to test the ideas of this research model. These hypotheses are meant to investigate the main research question in stages, building a coherent framework for the research design.

First, it is hypothesized that there is a performance difference between National and International tournaments, where the Kick outcome is inferior in International competitions. This is assumed, because International Competitions are often regarded as more prestigious and meaningful than National Competitions, meaning that stress levels are expected to be higher in tournaments such as the Champions League or the European Championship (Browning, 2019). Hypothesis 1: If a penalty shootout takes place in an international tournament, the conversion rate is lower than in a national tournament.

Furthermore, it is assumed that the later in the shootout a penalty Kick is taken, the worse the conversion rate, as in this scenario pressure is expected to build up the longer the shootout takes place. Therefore, I hypothesize that earlier Kicks in the shootout have a higher success rate than later Kicks, as Kicks 1-3 rarely have an immediate effect on the outcome of the shootout, while later Kicks often do.

Hypothesis 2: If a Kick takes place later in the penalty shootout, the outcome is more likely to be negative than earlier in the shootout.

According to a similar logic, it is hypothesized that stress increases in later stages of a competition, meaning that the Kick outcome in a penalty shootout during a cup final is assumed to be worse than in Round of 16 matches. This is expected because the closer the players get to

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winning the trophy, the more pressure might build up in the penalty takers' surroundings, as well as the player himself.

Hypothesis 3: If a penalty shootout takes place in the later stages of the tournament, the conversion rate is lower than in an earlier tournament stage.

Additionally, we expect a significant effect on the outcome of a penalty Kick when a penalty can Result in an immediate win or immediate loss for the team of the penalty taker. The performance of a penalty taker is assumed to be worse when the Kick is decisive, as Kicks of such nature involve an additional stress factor (Jordet & Hartman, 2008).

Hypothesis 4: If the penalty kick can result in an instant win or loss for the team, the conversion rate is lower than for any other kick.

3. Methods

The information and statistics used for the analysis were derived from internet databases through thorough investigation. Most of the data were collected from pertinent online databases such as transfermarkt.de and flashscore.com, collecting broad information about each shootout, kick, and penalty taker to assure high accuracy for any possible research model. The mentioned websites are some of the most common and reliable sources for information on results in soccer and provide a wide range of data on the proceedings of soccer matches, including penalty shootouts. The dataset of penalty shootouts used for this study has an extensive size of 2566 penalties from 238 shootouts in knockout competitions. To attain this amount of information, data from various professional tournaments and multiple countries were gathered. National tournaments analyzed consist of the KNVB Beker (Netherlands), the English FA and League Cup, DFB Pokal (Germany), Coppa Italia (Italy), Copa del Rey (Spain), Coupe de France (France), Coupe de Belgique (Belgium), Scottish FA Cup (Scotland), Taca de Portugal (Portugal), Russian Cup, Türkiye Kupasi (Turkey), Greek Cup, Polish Cup, Pohár FACR (Czech), ÖFB Cup (Austria), and the Swiss Cup. International Tournaments analyzed are the Europa League, Champions League, European Championship, as well as the World Cup. All analyzed penalty shootouts in the data set used to conduct the study took place between the years 2008 and 2020.

To be able to conduct a coherent quantitative analysis on the matter, dependent and independent variables had to be identified. Independent variables serve as input variables, manipulating outcome variables, namely dependent variables, which are a result of the altering inputs of the independent variables. Therefore, dependent variables and their results are being studied. To be

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able to analyze the chosen variables, statistical experiments need to be conducted. In this model, these experiments consist of Bivariate (Pearson) Correlation analyses and Binary Logistic Regression analyses. Correlation is measured by a correlation coefficient, taking on a value between -1 and +1, representing the strength and direction of the relationship between the variables. A Binary (Pearson) Correlation analysis investigates the effect of multiple events that occur together and their relationship to each other. The logistic regression analysis is used to examine the effects of independent variables on binary dependent variables, therefore giving a model of the probability of certain events (in this case Score/Miss) (Field, 2017). The means of statistical analysis, namely Logistic Regression, have been applied previously in research regarding the outcome of penalty shootouts (Jordet et al., 2007).

The significance level used to conduct the analysis was P ≤ 0.05, meaning that the result is considered significant if the probability that the study rejects the null hypothesis, assuming that the null hypothesis is true, is lower than 5%. All statistical examinations were conducted with the software program IBM SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) Statistics 25, providing broad possibilities for data analysis and collection.

The variable Score was chosen as the dependent variable in the model, consisting of the two possible outcomes Goal or Miss. All four independent variables, namely Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick, were chosen, as they are expected to have a psychological influence on penalty takers and the outcome of their shots. Competitions were split up into National and International competitions, meaning that National Competitions are tournaments played domestically, like an inner country cup competition, while International competitions are classified as Tournaments that transcend international borders, such as Club competitions like the Champions League, or national team competitions as the World Cup. Kick

Number was included, as each Team will have at least three penalty takers per shootout, with

the first one for each Team being #1, the second penalty taker for each Team was included as #2, and so on. As penalty Kicks after the fifth don’t always happen, penalty Kicks in the Sudden Death Rounds were centralized as Kick #6. Penalty shootouts incorporated for the independent variable Round of Competition included games from the Round of 16 and upwards. This decision was made, as all the all tournaments included in the data set embodied the stage Round of 16, with the Champions League and the European Championship starting the knockout phase of their tournaments with this stage. For the independent variable Decisiveness of Kick, only Kicks that could lead to an immediate loss or an immediate win were analyzed.

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4. Results

The 238 penalty shootouts included in the dataset for the analysis of this paper’s hypotheses took place in 21 national and international competitions within a period of 12 years (2008 – 2020), amounting to a total of 2566 individual penalties taken. Out of the 2566 penalty kicks observed, a total amount of 1871 kicks were converted by the penalty takers, while 695 kicks were missed, resulting in an overall success percentage of 72.9%. The average age of penalty takers within the observed data was 27.4 years, with 253 penalties being taken by French players, making France the most represented nationality within the dataset (9.9% of penalties). France is followed by the Netherlands with 190 penalty kicks (7.4%), Russia with 173 penalty kicks (6.4%), and Germany with 154 Kicks (6%). The most represented competitions within the dataset are the Russian Cup, consisting of 322 Kicks (12.6% of Kicks) in 29 shootouts (12.2% of shootouts), resulting in an average kick number of 11.1 Kicks per shootout, closely followed by the English League Cup, amounting to 276 penalty Kicks (10.8%) in 29 Shootouts (12.2%) with an average of 9.5 Kicks per shootout. Overall, the shootouts within the observed data resulted in an average of 10.78 Kicks per shootout.

4.1. Descriptive and correlation results

Competition. Analyzing the ideas of Hypothesis 1, the differences between National and

International competitions in regards to the dependent variable score (score/miss) are investigated. Within the data, 2253 penalties were taken in national competitions, while 313 penalties were taken in international tournaments. Within national competitions, 1641 penalties were successfully converted, while 612 penalties were missed, making for a success percentage of 72.8%. In international competitions, out of the 313 taken penalties, 230 were successfully converted and 83 were missed, resulting in a success percentage of 73.5%. Analyzing the correlation matrix (Table 1), national competitions have a slightly negative Pearson Correlation value with the dependent variable with -.005. Nevertheless, both correlations are deemed insignificant at a .05 significance level (p=.405) (Table 1).

Kick Number. From 2566 penalties taken, the first, second, and third kick taken by both teams

amount to 478 penalties each, making up for a 55.8% of all taken penalty kicks (18.6% each). Kick number four consists of 450 measurements (17.5%), while kick number five consists of 308 measurements (12%). All subsequent sudden death kicks (grouped together as kick six) amounted to 367 kicks (14.3%). Measuring kick one, 355 penalties out of 478 were successfully converted, resulting in a success percentage of 74.3%. In the observations for kick two, 347 out of 478 penalties were scored (72.6%), while during kick three 349 out of 478 penalties were

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converted successfully (73.0%). Kick four amounted to 325 scored out of 450 overall penalties (72.2%), kick five resulted in 230 goals out of 308 penalties (74.7%), while lastly kick six amounted to 261 out of 367 scored (71.1%). Looking at the correlation table (Table 1), it can be seen that none of the correlations between the dependent variable score and any of the kicks are significant at a .05 significance level, while kick one, three and five have slightly positive Pearson Correlation values and kick two, three and six have slightly negative correlations.

Round of Competition. Out of 2566 overall penalties in the dataset, the most observed stage in

competition within the data is the Round of 16 with 1169 penalties observed, making up for 45.6% of recorded penalties. The number of Quarterfinal penalties observed amount to 577 (22.5%), Semifinal penalties amount to 479 (18.7%), while penalties taken in a final amount to 314 (12.2%). Analyzing the success rates in each round of competition, it can be seen that in the Round of 16 873 out of 1169 penalties were successfully converted, resulting in a success percentage of 74.7%. In Quarterfinals 413 out of 577 penalties were converted (71.6%), in Semifinals 336 out of 479 penalties were converted (70.2%), while in Finals 232 out of 314 penalties were scored (73.88%). Conducting a correlation analysis (Table 1), a significant correlation at the .05 significance level can be found between the dependent variable (Score) and Round of 16, The Pearson Correlation value lies at .036 (p=.033), showing a significant positive correlation between the two variables. For the other variables in the category Round of competition no significant correlations occurred, with quarterfinals having a slightly negative correlation coefficient with the outcome variable (-.016; P=.206) and semifinals following suit (-.030; p=.065). Finals, on the other hand, show a positive correlation coefficient to the dependent variable (.008), although at a .05 significance level it is deemed insignificant, too (p=.340).

Decisiveness of Kick. Overall, within the observed data 491 kicks were decisive, making up

19.1% of recorded penalties. Out of the decisive penalties, there are 300 kicks potentially resulting in a loss (negative valence) and 191 kicks potentially resulting in a win (positive valence). Out of 300 kicks with negative valence 219 kicks were successfully converted, resulting in a success rate of 73%. Out of 191 kicks with a positive valence 145 were successfully converted, resulting in a success rate of 75.9%. Analyzing the correlation table (Table 1), it can be seen that negative and positive valence have a slightly positive correlation to the dependent variable score (NV=.001; PV=.019), nevertheless, at a .05 significance level none of the correlations can be classified as significant (NV: p=.486; PV: p=.166).

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16 Table 1. Correlation Matrix

4.2. Binary Logistic Regression

Competition. Conducting a Binary Logistic Regression (Table 2) comparing the statistics of

national and international competitions, the statistics show no significant results at the .05 significance level. Including international competitions as reference group (OR=1), national competitions show an Odds Ratio of .859 with a p-value of .976. This shows that penalty kicks in international competitions are more likely to be successfully converted than kicks in national competitions according to the numbers, however, the findings are insignificant.

Kick Number. Investigating the results of the Binary Logistic Regression (Table 2), the statistics

of Kicks are analyzed based on the ideas of hypothesis 2. Implementing sudden death kicks (Kick six) as reference group (OR=1), it can be seen that kick five (OR=1.212; p=.267), kick three (OR=1.169; p=349) and kick one (OR=1.186; p=.268) have the highest Odds Ratios out of the kick attempts. These are followed by kick two (OR=1.089; p=.578) and lastly kick four (OR=1.068; p=.669) with the lowest Odds Ratio apart from the reference group. The results show that kicks one to five were all more likely to be successfully converted than sudden death kicks (kick six), with kicks one, three, and five being the most probable attempts to be scored. Nevertheless, the differences between kick success probability are deemed insignificant at a .05 significance level.

Round of Competition. Analyzing the results of the Binary Logistic Regression (Table 2) in

regards to Round of Competitions, the statistics of finals were taken as reference group (OR=1) and are therefore compared with the remaining rounds included in the analysis. The findings show that the Round of 16 has an Odds Ratio of 1.079 (p=.586), showing a slightly higher probability of Round of 16 penalties to be successfully converted compared to penalties taken in a final. On the other hand, it can be seen that quarterfinal penalties (OR=.918; p=.581) and

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semifinal penalties (OR=.864; p=.355) are less likely to be scored compared to penalties taken in a final. However, none of the differences were significant at a .05 significance level.

Decisiveness of Kick. Looking at the results of the Binary Logistic Regression analysis (Table

2) for the variables negative valence and positive valence, with non-decisive shots as reference group (OR=1), the results show that negative valence shots have an Odds Ratio of 1.090 (p=.602). Furthermore, positive valence shots have a higher Odds Ratio of 1.242 (p=.277). The results of this analysis show that decisive shots are more likely to be successfully converted than non-decisive shots, however, the results are deemed insignificant at a .05 significance level.

Table 2. Binary Logistic Regression analysis

5. Discussion

The discussion part of this paper will include analysis and interpretation of the results gained through the statistical investigation of the hypotheses. Furthermore, it will state the limitations of the paper and express advice for further research in the field. Lastly a conclusion based on the findings will be drawn.

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5.1. Interpretation of Results

Hypothesis 1: If a penalty shootout takes place in an international tournament, the conversion rate is lower than in a national tournament.

By analyzing the findings of the analysis based on independent variable competition, a conclusion can be drawn in regards to hypothesis 1. While in the hypothesis it is stated that, due to higher psychological pressures in international tournaments, the success rate in penalties taken should be higher in national competitions, the statistics show that within the observed data the conversion rate in international tournaments is higher. These findings, although insignificant, show in the opposite direction of what the hypothesis states. Therefore, due to the insignificance of the findings and the direction in which the results point, hypothesis 1 can be rejected. The conversion rate for international tournaments cannot be considered lower than for national tournaments.

Hypothesis 2: If a Kick takes place later in the penalty shootout, the outcome is more likely to be negative than earlier in the shootout.

Looking at the findings based on the independent variable Kick Number, the validity of hypothesis 2 can be analyzed. The hypothesis assumes that, due to psychological pressures, kicks later in a shootout will be more likely to be unsuccessful than kicks earlier in a shootout. Analyzing the descriptive data, the correlation matrix, and the regression analysis, it is obvious, although insignificant, that kick five has the highest conversion rate within the observed data, closely followed by kick one. While sudden death kicks (kick 6) have the lowest conversion rate, no pattern is observed, which is similar to the assumptions stated in hypothesis 2. Neither significant differences could be found, nor is there any evidence of a pattern showing that during the course of the shootings the kicks became less successful.

Hypothesis 3: If a penalty shootout takes place in the later stages of the tournament, the conversion rate is lower than in an earlier tournament stage.

In order to analyze the ideas of hypothesis 3, the findings based on the independent variable Round of Competition need to be looked at. The hypothesis states that penalties in earlier competition rounds are assumed to be successfully converted more often than in later rounds, as the psychological pressures are expected to rise as the competitions are progressing. According to the observed data and the results of the analysis, there is no evidence for a significant difference in success rates between competition stages of tournaments. Furthermore, within the dataset, it can be seen that, while penalties in the Round of 16 have the highest

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conversion rate, the second-highest conversion rate occurs in finals, which is not in line with the assumptions of hypothesis 3. In other words: According to the results of the analysis, there is no evidence to support the claim of the hypothesis, which is therefore rejected.

Hypothesis 4: If the penalty kick can result in an instant win or loss for the team, the conversion rate is lower than for any other kick.

To analyze the assumptions of hypothesis 4, the independent variables' negative valence and positive valence need to be examined. The hypothesis states that it is assumed that penalties that can result in an instant win or loss for the team have a lower conversion rate than any other shot, as the psychological pressure is expected to be higher in decisive penalties. According to the analyzed data, no evidence for such an occurrence can be found, as decisive kicks (negative and positive valence shots) have a higher success rate than non-valence shots. However, this difference between decisive and non-decisive shots needs to be considered as insignificant. The assumptions made cannot therefore be validated, which leads to the rejection of Hypothesis 4.

5.2. Limitations

Previous papers have stated significant results in regards to psychological pressures, whether it be in broader high-pressure situations (Baumeister, 1984; Beilock & Carr, 2001), or specifically in penalty shootouts (Jordet et al., 2007). The results in this paper could not find evidence for such effects in regards to the hypotheses this study is based on and within the observed data that laid the foundation for this investigation. Naturally, the analysis in this research solely focused on the psychological effects several situations in penalty shootouts might have and whether they would generate significant results. While this has not been the case, alternative explanations of why the hypotheses have not created significant results can be thought of. As this study has focused only on psychological pressures during penalty shootouts, a lot of noise that might distort the exclusive analysis of psychological effects might have occurred during the tests, therefore affecting the results of the investigation.

Alternative explanations for the missing significance of outcomes could be based on player skill. It was hypothesized that penalty shootouts in national competitions would have a higher success rate than in international competitions, as professional soccer players like Cristiano Ronaldo have stated before that international competitions were the most meaningful to them (Ronaldo, 2019). This circumstance was expected to increase psychological pressures in international competitions and therefore, the success rate was expected to drop. An explanation for why the data didn’t show such a drop off in success might be that players in international

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competitions on average have a higher skill level, as these are competitions that only include the best teams from several regions and countries. This factor might distort the sole analysis of psychological pressures in regards to hypothesis 1. Another complication that occurs during the analysis of the competition variable is the difference in observations between national and international competitions. While as much as 2253 penalties in national competitions were recorded, only 313 penalties made up the data for international competitions, which is a significant difference. While this doesn’t rule out the analysis as invalid, it might affect the accuracy of the statistics.

In regards to the analysis of psychological pressures based on Kick number, the study design did not account for teams that might strategically let players, who are known to be better penalty takers, take on later kicks. This is a common practice, as some Teams let their strikers and best penalty takers take later penalties, as it could be seen in the before-mentioned Champions League Final 2012, where FC Chelsea striker and regular penalty taker Didier Drogba took the fifth penalty (NTV, 2012). Such practices could have led to skewed results when analyzing psychological effects exclusively.

Similar explanations could be applied to describe a certain noise in the analysis regarding Round of Competition. While it was hypothesized that due to increasing psychological pressure the shot performance would decrease gradually from the Round of 16 towards the final, it can be expected that teams participating in a final of a professional cup competition have higher skilled players than teams participating in a Round of 16. A fitting example is the composition of teams participating in the Round of 16 of the German Cup in the season 2018/19 compared to the teams who made it to the final that year. In the Round of last 16, six teams were from lower divisions in German soccer, compared to the final, where the participants were FC Bayern and RB Leipzig, both placed number one and number three in the Bundesliga rankings that season. It could be argued that finals have a statistically higher conversion rate, based on the assumption that the average player skill is increasing compared to earlier rounds of competition. Another limitation of the study is that Goalkeeper performances are not incorporated into the analysis. Memmert and Hüttermann (2013) have found that goalkeeper-shooter interaction is significant in determining kick outcome. Therefore, it can be assumed that the goalkeeper plays an important role in the penalty kick outcome. While this study focuses on the psychological pressure a kicker is exposed to in various situations during a penalty kick, the impact of the goalkeepers' behavior is not analyzed as additional pressure on the kicker.

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5.3. Advice for Future Research

Future research is needed to find out how noise and other distorting factors affect the outcome of penalty shootouts. In addition to the quantitative analysis of these factors, qualitative factors must also be included in the analysis, such as the education and training of penalty shooters and how shooting strategies (e.g. to let the most successful penalty shooter shoot the longest) can be developed. Also, more emphasis could be placed on the effects of goalkeeper behavior, as this demonstrably represents a significant factor for the outcome of penalty shootouts (Memmert et al., 2013). Concerning the psychology of penalty shoot-outs, it could be of interest whether there is a typology of players who are more susceptible to pressure than others. In this case, sociodemographic data would be incorporated into the research design.

5.4. Conclusion

In conclusion, no significant evidence for the effects of the psychological stress factors Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick could be detected. Nevertheless, key takeaways can be discovered from the results of this paper, giving practical implications of how to improve performance in penalty shootouts. As a result, it can be said that implementing shooting tactics, such as letting better players take later kicks in a shootout can help counteract the psychological detriments certain situations in penalty shootouts might bring. Furthermore, the findings of this paper, as well as other papers regarding penalty shootouts, implicate that good teams are also good at taking penalties (van Hemert et al., 2020), resulting in good penalty performance in finals and international competitions. As a result of the findings of this paper, soccer Team Coaches could focus on finding an effective succession of players who will take penalties in a certain order, as well as concentrating on improving penalty performance and confidence when taking penalties, as these factors might be key to improving penalty shootout performance. However, answering the research question, as a result of this study it can be said that the psychological stress factors Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick have no significant impact on the outcome of penalty shootouts.

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