A risk assessment based on the
integration of natural and cultural
developments for mapping the potential
conservation of mangrove forests’
ecosystem services in Jakarta Bay,
Indonesia
Course: Interdisciplinary Project Students:
Assignment: Research Report Final Floor Borstlap 10799745
Date: 23-12-2016 Sophie Boot 10636250
Tutor: Anneke ter Schure MSc Martine Boersen 10685286
Expert: Andres Verzijl MSc Nicolò Mossink 10682090
Abstract
This paper aimed to provide policy makers insight in the main developments threatening the mangrove forests in the Jakarta Bay area in order to map the potential for conservation. A model has been proposed to find common ground within the disciplines of biology, earth sciences and urban planning, and has been further developed as a risk-assessment tool, including potential of ecological projects. Products and services that the mangrove ecosystem provides have been identified, as well as developments influencing the state of the mangroves. The Integrated-Venn-Pie-model combines those services and developments into a graphic representation of the main threats and thereby the potential for conservation policy areas. In the case of the mangrove ecosystem in the Jakarta Bay area the main threats are global climate change and aquaculture. When further elaborated, the model can also be used within different contexts.
Table of content
Introduction...4
Theoretical framework...5
Case description... 5
Division into cultural and natural concepts... 6
IVP-diagram... 7
Definition of terms... 8
Interdisciplinarity, common- and conflicting grounds...8
Methods... 9 Literature research... 9 The IVP-diagram... 10 Integration technique... 11 Complex system... 11 Results... 11 Literature research... 11 The IVP-diagram... 15 Discussion...18 Literature...19
Appendix A: Data Management Table...22
Appendix B: Scale for pie diagrams...24
Introduction
Considering population size, Indonesia is one of the largest countries in the world, supporting over 255 million inhabitants. But it is also the world’s largest archipelago, and with a coastal length of 95 thousand kilometres it harbours rich tropical marine ecosystems such as salt marshes, mangroves, coral reefs and sea grasses meadows (Alongi et al., 2016). These
ecosystems provide a wide range of services, including a nursery habitat that benefits marine fauna as well as fisheries. Saving lives and properties from natural disasters like tsunamis are among the more “hidden” services. Furthermore, products like timber, fuel, tannins and medicine are widely extracted from the mangrove forests (Walters et al., 2008). Globally, Indonesia’s estuarine and coastal ecosystems are the most exploited and thus threatened natural systems (Barbier et al., 2011).
In the coming decades, mangrove ecosystems will likely face significant changes. Global Climate Change (GCC) is predicted to put pressure on these unique forest wetlands by generating sea level rise, ocean acidification and above all, an increased frequency of heavier storms
(Bernstein et al., 2008). Economic progress in both Lower and Middle Developed Countries will exacerbate this pressure by intensifying coastal activities such as aquaculture and development for leisure and tourism (Smith, 2013). In this research, the metropolitan Jakarta Bay area is selected as a representative site, where all relevant agents act without too many ecological gradients. In addition, extensive research on various levels and by different disciplines exists and the area is large enough for qualitative evaluation yet small enough to fit into the scope of this study.
This paper aims to give policy makers insight in the main developments threatening the mangrove forests in order to map the potential for conservation. The multitude of both natural and cultural developments and their interconnectedness causes a complex feedback system that demands an interdisciplinary approach. According to Chapin III FS et al. (2000), main ecosystem threats are anthropogenic and ecological. Therefore, the disciplines biology, earth sciences and spatial planning mapped the most significant geological, ecological and anthropogenic
relationships and their relative degree of influence that help to answer the main research question:
How can natural and cultural developments be used in a risk assessment in order to map the potential conservation of mangrove ecosystem services in Jakarta Bay, Indonesia? This research combines a literature study and the development of an integrated model, representing the developments influencing the state of mangrove ecosystems. The theoretical framework defines the casus area, the model and its definitions. Subsequently, the methodology explains how the model is used and how it should be interpreted. The results section outlines the ecosystem services provided by the mangrove forest and the main developments that influence the current state of the mangrove forest. Furthermore, all relevant concepts are implemented in the model and the outcomes are presented. Finally, a reflection upon the model and the division between natural and cultural influences is given in the discussion.
Theoretical framework
Case description
This paper develops an evalution model to map the potential conservation of mangrove
ecosystem services in Jakarta Bay area in Indonesia. Mangrove forests are defined as a group of trees and shrubs that live in the coastal intertidal zone (Bradly, 2008). They occur in the
intertidal zone around the tropical and intertropical latitudes, with the largest percentage of forests between 5° north and 5° south latitude (Sasmito et al., 2016 ; Giri et al., 2007). Together they currently cover 14.650.000 ha of the coastlines, of which 2,9 Mha can be found in Indonesia (Alongi, 2008).
Figure 1. Global Distribution of Mangroves
(http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/winr/praveena3.html)
As mangrove forests have a large variety of ecosystem services, the ecological resilience of many other ecosystems in Indonesia are highly dependent on mangroves (Alongi, 2008). Traditionally, mangrove forests were used for multiple purposes in order to serve the local population.
Examples of mangrove ecosystem services are products such as timber, food, fuel and medicine (Giri, 2007). Apart from the extraction of products from the mangrove ecosystems, mangrove forests are important habitats for many species (Alongi, 2008). Furthermore, in Indonesia and especially on Java, protection from waves, tidal bores, tsunamis and discourage of shoreline erosion are very important ecosystem services for local people, as well as carbon storage and sedimentation (Sasmito et al., 2016; van Oudenhoven et al., 2015).
Besides the mangrove ecosystem, the area harbours the Jakarta Metropolitan District. Over the last century, Jakarta has known an excessive growth in both its population and in economic development. According to the national Indonesian bureau of statistics, Jakarta City contained around 9.6 million people in 2010 on a surface area of approximately 660 km2 (BPS,
2012; Abidin, Andreas, Gumilar, Fukuda, Pohan, et al., 2011). However, the metropolis is larger than Jakarta City. In 1995 the population of all districts in the Jakarta Bay Area, also referred to as Jabotabek, counted over 20 million people, as can be seen in table 1.
Table 1. Population Totals, Jakarta Metropolitan Area. Source: Cybriwsky and Ford (2001). In summary, the Jakarta Bay shows various levels of complexity, and the area is subject to many rapid developments. Due to these complexities, a lot of different agents act on the mangroves in this area. Therefore, an interdisciplinary research is required to map the most important
developments and evaluate how these agents influence the potential of a mangrove forest. The researchers work together to quantify the relevance of developments and agents in their own disciplinary research, within an interdisciplinary framework. Therefore, a distinction between natural and cultural developments and ecosystem services is made to properly map the different agents within the three disciplines. Additionally, by making a division between natural and cultural, it is aimed to provide stakeholders a more complete overview and a critical look at the different agents that act within the mangrove system. A categorisation will help decide whether one is dealing with natural or anthropogenic influences and thus what policies are suitable and which management techniques should be implemented. Finally, a model is created to integrate the disciplines. This leads to new insights and a broader view of the functioning of the
interlinked mangrove system.
Division into cultural and natural concepts
The developments identified in the literature study will be divided into categories of natural and/or cultural developments.
Natural developments are defined as events that cannot be directly influenced by humans; forces that act beyond human influence, such as the greenhouse effect or tectonic movements. However, it should be noted that all the theories of the acting forces causing events defined as natural are usually also cultural constructs (Linton, 2008). The theories (of the cause) of subduction, for example, are all constructed by scientists. Although these theories are
considered as the truth by the majority of educated people, truth is just defined by the scientific theory, also constructed by humans (Popper, 1959). This means that until a more accurate theory is found, it is assumed that the theory that has repeatedly been ‘proven’ is the valid explanation of a concept. Following this movement, it could be argued that even the developments defined as natural should be considered cultural, as these are all results from cultural constructs. However, in this research, the aforementioned definition will be used.
Cultural developments are defined as developments that could be directly linked to humans acting on the system. Deforestation or oil spills are linked to humans directly, as these are activities that could be prevented by better management or control. These are measures within the human scope to effectively act upon. Climate change as a result of extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activity, could be considered controllable with proper management as well. However, the functioning of the greenhouse effect of the earth cannot. This categorisation was initially used to diverge the complexity of the mangrove ecosystem into the various disciplines. Although a categorisation could be viewed as arbitrary, it will be a helpful tool for policymakers to decide on which areas to act, as the developments are here defined as something humans can or cannot directly influence. Therefore, making policies on natural developments will not likely be effective, but making policy on cultural developments will. However, making a categorisation remains debatable and the discussion section elaborates more on a reflection of this division.
IVP-diagram
For the integration of the various disciplines this paper proposes to find a technique that suits all disciplines and makes the interconnectedness of this complex system clear, while showing what the role of the local people is within this system. This is found in a Venn-diagram indicating the risk of an area, as proposed by Spalding, McIvor, Tonneijck, Tol and van Eijk (2014). In their diagram, risk is the overlapping area of three intertwined circles, in which each circle indicates a different factor influencing the risk (see figure 1). Spalding et al. (2014) explain risk as “...a combination of the occurrence of given hazards (frequency, intensity) and the exposure and vulnerability of people to those hazards”. However, Boersen, Boot, Borstlap and Mossink (2016) adjusted the definitions of the factors influencing risk and the definition of risk itself to suit the questions in this research better. These definitions are integrated into what is called an
Integrated Venn-Pie diagram (IVP-diagram), in which all three circles are further subdivided into pie-diagrams. These pie-diagrams indicate which developments act on the system and to what extent these influence their circle (see figure 2).
Figure 3. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability defined in this study.
Definition of terms
A hazard is defined as the chance for a disrupting event occurring. This event is an unintended event, meaning that an oil spill induced by human mistake is considered a hazard, although deforestation is not. Oil spills might occur due to bad management and protection policy, although this is an indirect effect, unintended to happen. Deforestation is considered more controllable and thus a direct effect. Therefore, the pie of hazard includes oil spill, land
subsidence due to groundwater pumping and tectonics and climate change. It should be noted that groundwater pumping was a very difficult development to categorise and eventually the choice for placing it in the hazard section is based on the unintended effect groundwater pumping has on subduction. This example clearly illustrates the difficulty of making a categorisation within natural and cultural developments.
Exposure is defined as the quantity of the elements that are permanently removed from the system, due to land use change. The pie-diagram of exposure consists of erosion,
deforestation for residential areas and industrial development, and reclamation of land for other uses.
The circle of vulnerability is defined as a change of quality of the system due to land use change. The pie of vulnerability consists of sustainable deforestation/forestry, conversion into aquaculture, sedimentation and other product extraction. Hereby, the quality of the system is altered, although regrowth of forest is more likely.
Deforestation is thus used in both exposure and vulnerability, although the difference in definition indicates that the forest area deforested in the exposure circle will not grow back, while in the vulnerability circle the forest will. In the vulnerability circle, deforestation is due to forestry; mangroves are de- and reforested for product extraction, such as timber.
The overlapping area of the three intertwined circles represents the risk. Risk is defined as the proximity to a tipping point of the mangrove ecosystem. A tipping point is the point that
indicates a shift to a new state. It should be viewed as a little ball in a cup, in which the ball has to be pressured to roll over the side of the cup. The side of the cup is the tipping point, and while the system is in a certain ‘state’/the valley (on either side of the cup), it will function following certain definitions and feedback loops. In this research, the cup is defined as the sustainable state, where the mangrove forests are able to sustain its users in products and ecosystem services to such a degree and timeframe that the forest can regenerate itself. After being pressured so much that the system will reach a tipping point where it will shift to an unstable state, the ecosystem could no longer sustain in products and services while regenerating itself. Risk is here defined as a combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, indicating the state of the mangroves and the processes pressuring the system. By mapping all these pressuring developments and their degree of influence, it was possible to define the risk as the proximity to a tipping point.
Interdisciplinarity, common- and conflicting grounds
According to integrationists Julie Thompson Klein and William H. Newell (1997),
interdisciplinarity can be defined in three ways. Firstly, interdisciplinarity can be reached by answering a question and secondly, by solving a problem. Finally, interdisciplinarity can be achieved by creating a more comprehensive understanding through integrating the complex disciplinary perspectives.
For this research the third method of interdisciplinarity will be applied, in order to create integration and to identify common grounds among the disciplines. The common ground in this research is the potential conservation for mangrove forests in the Jakarta Bay. The three
conservation of ecosystem services of the mangrove forests. However, their reasons for conservation are based on conflicting grounds, which are put into context through the identification of developments.
Java is subjected to tectonic movements since it is positioned on the ‘Eurasian plate’ and just off the coast to the west, the ‘Australian-Indo plate’ pushes against it causing, apart from earthquakes and volcanic activity, subduction of the island (Malod et al., 1995). The combination of subduction and sea level rise due to GCC alters the coastal zone topography, hence usually influencing mangroves negatively. Furthermore, population growth poses potentially another threatening development, causing increase in forest clearing which influences the ecology of the forests. Hereby, amplifying negative developments may ultimately lead to the resilience of the ecosystem to be more susceptible to reaching a tipping point.
Conflicting grounds occur mainly within the interests of different stakeholders. From each discipline, different reasons for the conservation of mangroves exist. This became apparent even during discussion between researchers from different disciplines. To create a model in which both natural and cultural developments have a share in each circle, interdisciplinary thought and a broad approach of an ecosystem in which many stakeholders and developments play a role are required.
Methods
Literature research
This final interdisciplinary research has been preceded by several disciplinary studies. In order to answer the main research question, the ecosystem services and developments acting on the mangrove forests had to be identified. This was done in the individual literature researches for every discipline. In addition, a division within natural and cultural concepts within these disciplines was discussed. Based on the definitions of natural and cultural developments as specified in the theoretical framework, developments have been categorised as either cultural or natural. Furthermore, all relevant disciplinary concepts and theories were combined into a Data Management Table.
After the disciplinary reports, the type of complex system and a suitable integration technique were determined. After brainstorming and research of literature, the integration technique of a Venn-diagram was found. This formed the base for the creation of the IVP-diagram, in which the results from the disciplinary researches are integrated and the research becomes interdisciplinary as a result.
The IVP-diagram required a clear definition of terms, to create a proper categorisation and to integrate all disciplines and thus both natural and cultural concepts into the diagram. Thus; firstly, the determination of the definitions of cultural and natural concepts, the circles and the overlapping area were determined. Secondly, all relevant developments were identified and subsequently divided over the circles hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Hereby, it was chosen to only include the symptoms of certain problems into the IVP-diagram and to leave the
problems themselves out. The problem is hence indirectly included through its measurable symptom. For example, population growth as identified by urban planning could be viewed as a problem, although the direct effect of population growth on the mangrove ecosystem cannot be measured. However, a likely result from population growth is increased urban development. The ‘symptom’, deforestation of mangroves due to urban development, could be measured and is thus included in the IVP-diagram.
The IVP-diagram
The developed IVP-diagram is used to integrate the disciplines of biology, earth sciences and urban planning into one model, providing an overview of the developments influencing a mangrove forest ecosystem.
The diagram consists of three circles with different sizes, in which the size of the circles indicates the contribution of that factor of risk. Thus when the circle for vulnerability is very large, this shows that policy makers should address the vulnerability of the system. However, this does not immediately become clear from the visualisation*. Additionally, each circle consists of a pie chart, whereby the degree of influence of a certain development will be explained.
Developments influencing the mangrove forest have been identified and used as input for the pie charts in the IVP. Developments influencing the mangrove forest specifically, are chosen to keep the model sound on influence to the proximity of a tipping point. It would become too
complicated to incorporate certain developments influencing the system only through a feedback loop, having the possibility of influencing the system both negatively and positively, depending on the conditions. Therefore, the IVP is slightly simplified to suit the scope of this research better.
For this research, a scale from 1-100 was developed, to determine the size of the different pie pieces. The justification for the developments and their share of the circle can be found in Appendix B. The size of the large circles indicating the factors influencing risk (hazard, exposure and vulnerability), is determined by taking the sum of all the pie chart pieces. These are
incorporated into a Venn-diagram plotter, an online software package developed by the Pacific Northwest National Library. For the creation of the pie charts, Microsoft Office packages have been used.
This research defines risk as the proximity to a tipping point within the mangroves’ resilience model. Thus, when the overlapping area of the circles is larger, risk and thus the chance of reaching a tipping point increases. The size of the risk area is given by the Venn-diagram plotter software. However, to calculate the overlapping area of all three circles, the software demands the input of a maximum value for the overlapping area between every combination of two circles. Although this could be mathematically calculated, this lies beyond the scope of this research. Therefore, values of 10, 15 and 20 have been chosen for the maximum overlap between circles A/B, B/C and A/C respectively. These values correspond with the sizes of the circles, thus circle A and C are largest and thus have the largest possible overlapping area (see image 1 and 2). The value of smallest maximum overlapping area, thus in this case a value of 10 for the combination of circles A/B, is also the maximum possible area of risk. This is due to the fact that risk could never be larger than the value of the smallest overlapping area between two circles, as risk is defined as the overlapping area between the three circles. Although this is logically arbitrary, a mathematically correct calculation of the overlapping areas was impossible for the time leftover. Furthermore, a more advanced software package might be able to overcome the issue of manually calculating the overlapping areas between two circles by calculating this automatically.
Besides these arbitrary assumptions, an IVP-diagram with different sizes of circles, integrated pie-diagrams and a proximity-to-tipping-point approach, helps to get insights into the sensitivity of the system. Furthermore, this IVP-diagram creates possibilities for more accurate
development of management techniques and policy making.
* It should be noted that the visualisation provided by the software is a bit confusing. From the visualisation it seems that the contribution of a circle to the amount of risk is determined by the share of the overlapping area to the total area of the circle. This would mean that the smallest circle will always have the largest influence on the amount of risk, which is not the case. The degree of influence is completely determined by the size of the circles.
Integration technique
The use of an adjusted Venn-diagram could be viewed as the integration technique of
are translated into (continuous) variables; hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Together these developments will indicate the state of the system in a resilience model.
Complex system
The mangroves forest ecosystem studied, has most similarity with the complex system of robustness and resilience, as the mangroves have a certain capacity to adapt to change. However, it is expected that when the system is past a tipping point, this will significantly influence the behaviour of the whole complex system, including its users. When looking from a more anthropogenic perspective, certain groups might be viewing the system from one specific viewpoint, for examle economic advantages from timber extraction, making the system dependent on the observer. This is very important when considering management techniques.
Results
Literature research
In order to identify the ecosystem services from the mangrove forests and the developments in the Jakarta Bay area, we have done four preliminary literature studies with a mono disciplinary approach.
The preliminary studies include three research fields, which are: biology, urban planning, and earth sciences. A summary of these studies can be found in Appendix A, where the main theories are described in a data management table. However, we created two figures in order to give an overview of the results that emerged from the preliminary literature studies, which consists of developments in the Jakarta Bay area (Figure 4) and the ecosystem services of the mangrove forests in the Jakarta Bay area (Figure 5).
Figure 5: the main ecosystem services of the mangroves in the Jakarta Bay area
In the following section, the developments and services that we extracted from our preliminary literature research will be categorized in circles in order to establish the knowledge of the studied research fields into our Integrated Venn Pie diagram; IVP-diagram fro short.
In the hazard circle three main developments have been identified; climate change, land subsidence due to tectonic subduction and groundwater pumping, and oil spills. Both climate change and land subsidence are caused by mechanisms that operate on a global scale, therefore we call them natural within the context of our study. Besides the natural causes, also
anthropogenic accidents can influence the chance on a hazard. A main anthropogenic threat in this area are oil spills. Between 1975 and 2008 thirty oil spills have occurred in the marine waters of Indonesia. There is a significant variation in the scope of the damage of an oil spill, but on average an oil spill causes a loss of 5 % of mangrove forests in a particular area (Norman et al., 1997; Darmayati, 2009).
The region’s chance on a hazard is projected to alter as a result of local climate change. Over the period of 1901 – 2012 an average temperature increase of 0,5 – 1,5 °C has been
observed (IPCC, 2014). This has resulted in strong variability in precipitation, under which more extreme events are more likely to occur. Frequency of heavy precipitation increases, while light rain events are decreasing. Furthermore, large rates of sea level rise have been reported in the western tropical Pacific, which is likely to contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels. This will cause increased coastal erosion rates. As a result, mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds may decline and fragment. Finally, heat waves will become more frequent and intense, and both floods and droughts will increase in frequency. All of these negative effects of global climate change will influence the mangrove ecosystem and the population tremendously.
Before the southern coast of Java, the Indo-Australian plate and Eurasia converge with a rate of 6.7 ± 0.7 cm per year (Wagner et al., 2007). This causes subduction of the RooRise, an oceanic plateau, beneath the Sunda Arc and results in a deep-sea trench called the Sumatra trench. Subduction could be characterised by either an accretionary or an erosive regime, of which the latter is the case in this area (Kopp et al., 2006). The subduction process here is defined by strong volcanism and high earthquake activity, additionally increasing risk of tsunamis. Jakarta has been found to be sinking, most likely resulting from the convergent plate movements, pushing parts of the plates downwards (ZetaTalk, 2010).
In the exposure circle, two main subcategories have been identified; absolute land change and land use change. The absolute land change is influenced by two developments: terrestrial erosion, and suppletion on the other hand. Research has shown the mangrove-mud area can erode up to 55 meters per year (Winterwerp et al., 2013). This is a natural
development, in contrast with the suppletion of sand to create new islands for Pluit City. Just as sand suppletion, the 'land use change' factors are anthropogenic developments. Over the last century, Jakarta has known an excessive growth in both its population and in economic development. According to the national Indonesian bureau of statistics, the Jakarta region contained around 9.6 million people in 2010 (BPS, 2012). During the 1970’s, the region had an average annual growth rate of almost 4%, which has declined to 1.1% between 2010 and 2014 (BPS, 2015). Surprisingly, the net migration in the main area of Jakarta is negative; more people are moving out than into the district. (BPS, 2016). Goldblum and Wong (2000) explain this; the conglomeration of Jakarta is larger than the official Jakarta district. There are many more growth centres in the surrounding three provinces (Table 1). The urbanisation is followed by suburbanisation, resulting in the creation of a megacity. This metropolitan area, called Jabotabek, is also clearly supported by Cybriwsky and Ford (2001) in figure 6. This is again supported by Murakami et al. (2005). They use economic planning theories to explain the urban spread over the surrounding districts; the more successful Jakarta becomes; the more economic activities take place in the core of the city while inhabitants are “pushed” outwards. This is illustrated in table 1. Together with this growth comes the physical expansion of the city.
Mangrove forests located near developing cities are most vulnerable, because more people and thus expansion of the city leads to more destroying and damaging of mangroves. In these metropolitan areas mangrove ecosystems are converted into reclamation landfill
(MangroveWatch, 2013). Barbier et al. show that expansion of the city leads to a reclamation of 5% of the mangrove forests yearly (2011).
Figure 6. Jakarta (DKI) and surrounding region and their growth centres. Source: Goldblum & Wong (2000).
Table 1. Population Totals, Jakarta Metropolitan Area. Source: Cybriwsky and Ford (2001).
Figure 7. Population density as a function of distance from the center of the city. Source: Marakami et al. (2005).
In the vulnerability circle three main categories have been found; deforestation,
aquaculture and other product extraction. Based on satellite data and local surveys the practice of deforestation, especially in Indonesia, has led to dramatic effects on regional and international health due to the amount of smoke, loss of biodiversity and increased sedimentation. When forests are drained by constructing canals the peat is dried (peatland conversion), initiating decomposition and making it susceptible to wildfires, usually needed to clear the land for agriculture like palm oil-, paper- and rubber- plantations (Cochrane, 2003). As the height and hence the amount of peat decreases, the hydrology is changed to such an extent that a tipping point is reached, it can no longer hold the typical clay soil under the peat and is drained to the sea. There it may cause local flooding but leading also to smothering of coral reefs by catchments soil throughout the archipelago, subsequently colonization and development of mangroves and seagrass (Miettinen, Shi, & Liew, 2011). Although Alongi, et al. emphasises there is quantitative data available, several reports are available that argue that mangrove forests may increase sedimentation near or in estuaries, lagoons and deltas, decreasing sedimentation and suspense in the oceans that otherwise would inhibit photosynthesis of coral reefs (Budiman et al.1986; Yulianto et al. 2004; Alongi et al. 2008b; Sekiguchi and Aksornkoae 2008).
John Houghton in his book Global Warming (2009 pp.186) reminds the reader that two thirds of the fish caught for consumption, many birds and animals depend on these coastal marshes and swamps for part of their life cycle, thus vital for total world ecology. “Mangroves support diverse, local fisheries and also provide critical nursery habitat and marine productivity which supports wider commercial fisheries (Walters, et al., 2008).
Apart from the fact that local fisheries can extract food from the mangrove forests, they directly and indirectly sustain marine wildlife, providing food through a complex food web and nursery habitat.
Though productivity and biomass have extensively been evaluated, ranging from 40,7 to 436,4 t h-1, little data has been published on what for example sustainable biomass can be extracted from forests and is something worth looking into as this is a major income source for various companies and communities (Komiyama, Ong, & Poungparn, 2008). A summary of all products and respective example quantities can be found in the article of Sukristijono (2000) on page 111.
Figure 8 shows the interconnection among three different ecosystems by marine wildlife and sedimentation (Duke, Nagelkerken, Agardy, Wells, & Lavieren van, 2014).
Figure 8. The interconnection among three different ecosystems by marine wildlife and sedimentation (Duke, Nagelkerken, Agardy, Wells, & Lavieren van, 2014).
The IVP-diagram
Image 1. An overview of the Venn-Diagram Plotter software tab. (downloads available via
hazard climate change 40 natuiral
land subsidence 30 natural/cultural
oil spills 4.5 cultural
exposure erosion 50 natural
residential development 0.67 cultural
industrial development 1.05 cultural
vulnerability sustainable deforestation 22.6 cultural
aquaculture 52 cultural
extraction for other products 26 cultural
Table 2: Circle parameters with their scale and division in natural/cultural
In figure 9 shows the final Integrated Venn Pie-diagram As can be seen from the figure, climate change, erosion and aquaculture pose most severe threats to the mangrove ecosystem. The hazard circle is largest, which is unfortunate as these are all unintended events. However, suitable management focussed on working with nature could possibly provide good protection programs. A better control and checks of facilities in the oil industry might help providing oil leaking into the system. Vulnerability forms the second largest circle, mainly due to aquaculture. Stakeholders should be aware of the importance of finding a balance between economic growth derived from the forest and sustaining in future production and services. Finally, erosion forms the main threat in exposure. Again proper research followed by implementing suitable on-site techniques to fight erosion could help decreasing this part of the pie, resulting in a smaller circle of exposure.
The risk area covers 5.7 out of 10, which means that a tipping point is still not close to being reached if mangrove forest were still covering the Jakarta Bay area. This means that there is a potential for conservation of mangrove ecosystem services in the Jakarta Bay area. However, to prevent this tipping point from being reached, it is highly important to address the
threatening developments and make policy plans for both short- and long term programs, simultaneously with reforestation programs. If a new state in which the ecosystem would be unable to sustain in products and services for its users and unable to sustain itself would be reached, both natural and cultural heritage will suffer a great loss.
Discussion
This study aimed to evaluate the influence of natural and cultural developments on the potential of preserving and promoting mangrove ecosystems, by benchmarking published qualitative and quantitative data from 24 studies.
This study successfully identified the most important developments that were then categorized among ‘Hazard’, ‘Vulnerability’ and ‘Exposure’. The developments have also been graded allowing evaluation of the potential of mangroves that revealed at least four levels of complexity (eco-physiology, inter-ecology, global climate change and human influence).
Therefore, breaking disciplinary boundaries by introducing an IVP-diagram that showed relative weight. Results indicate developments should be ordered regarding importance by hazard, vulnerability and exposure, suggesting that major opportunities of ‘promoting’ and ‘mitigating mangrove deforestation’ are linked to global climate change, land subsidence, erosion and conversion into aquaculture. Erosion and conversion into aquacultures are developments that should be addressed locally, by providing the implementation of tailored coastal protection plans and sustainable use of the forest. Local and international communities can directly address developments such as Global Climate Change and land subsidence by reducing greenhouse gas emissions locally and globally and reducing local freshwater pumping (den Elzen, Olivier, Höhne, & Janssens-Maenhout, 2013; Murdiyarso, Hergoualc’h, & Verchot, 2010). Although various studies identify these developments as threats to mangroves, they are not always seen as the major contributor of mangrove loss. Usually, such as the ‘United Nations Environment Programme’ report of 2014, conversion for aquaculture, agriculture, plantations and coastal development are viewed as the main cause of decline. However, all studies note that legal and local differences may account for variances of contributors of loss.
The same goes also for the developments regarding vulnerability and exposure where other studies have applied different definitions, which might hence explain the relative differences in importance.
This study is arguable somewhat unique as it allowed the identification of certain practices that lead to outcomes affecting the mangroves. The terrestrial deforestation of tropical forest in Indonesia for example, led to greenhouse emissions propelling GCC and also increasing sedimentation. Both developments posing a threat to mangrove ecosystem and connected ecosystems, such as the prized coral reefs.
Another difference among similar studies as this research emphasized on the threats of mangroves within its context, i.e. inter-connected system thinking and focusing on the Jakarta bay. However, it should be noted that mainly due to chosen definitions and chosen scope of research some influences have not been included such as eutrophication that had significant effects on the ecology of the Jakarta Bay (van der Meij, Suharsonob, & Hoeksema, 2010). Some developments, such as population growth, have been treated as discrete variables. Arguable population growth, for example, in reality is correlated to aquaculture development and
deforestation, however in this study it has been treated as an inert variable. (Sukardjo, S. 2000). Academic opportunities for advance studies may look into the appropriateness of the grading system used in this study and evaluating opportunities to apply this method in different fields and locations, ideally with varying scopes. In addition, an economical evaluation of the system might put price tags on certain decision and might therefore assist assessment of developments and enlighten importance of agents and developments for local inhabitants and (inter)national policy makers.
There are many perspectives from which a categorisation between cultural and natural concepts could be made. This mainly depends on the discipline and the role within the mangrove forests (e.g. local user, researcher, policy maker, multinational in need of products, etc.). The chosen definitions and scope of this research regarding the segregation of natural and cultural developments might have unforeseen impact on the degree of relative importance of
developments and their relatedness to other agents. It should therefore be noted that chosen definitions were primary argued for functional reasons and to lesser extend to for intrinsic reasons. This report therefore argues that it seems relevant in further studies and discussions
promote philosophical debate on the relevance definition segregation in interdisciplinary contexts as this have consequences for the drawn conclusions and published data i.e. affecting the integrity of interdisciplinary studies.
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Appendix A: Data Management Table
Discipline orSubdiscipline Name Theory + Insights it gives into problem Key Concepts Underlying assumptions (ontological, epistemological, methodological, general) Urban
Planning Demographic balancing equation: Demographic developments can be predicted when all
components are taken apart and are studied. This is easier with natural increase, because migration patterns are very unpredictable. Demographic transition model: The demographic transition model is often recognized in the past of developed countries; when a country becomes more prosperous, the mortality rate drops and a bit later also the fertility rate. A delay in the process causes a rapid population growth.
Natural in- or decrease, net migration Pre-modern phase, transition, modern phase, population growth
The demographic balancing equation assumes that changes are predictable, which is not the case, especially with migration. It also demands proper
administration of births, deaths and migrants, which might not be available.
This model assumes every developing country moves according to a similar process. The circumstances for current developing countries are strongly influenced by globalisation, which might change the process.
Earth
Sciences Climate change: Climate change occurs due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, causing global temperatures to rise. Convergent tectonic plate movements: Due to subduction as a result of tectonic movements, the island is increasingly exposed to relative sea level rise. Therefore, the need for coastal protection increases.
Aquaculture: 52% of the mangroves in Climate change, relative sea level rise, extreme weather events Subduction, tectonic movement, basin development Climatological changes as a result of global warming are expected to cause relative sea level rise and increasing frequency of extreme weather events in the area of Jakarta Bay. In case of the island Java, convergent tectonic plate movements cause subduction of the island, due to downwards movements of the plates. As the island sinks and the sea level rises, the relative sea level is amplified. Furthermore, the spatial area of the island will slowly reduce. [AtS1]
Aquaculture is the cultivation of aquatic animals and plants in
Indonesia have been degraded or converted for aquaculture, especially in java and Sumatra.
Carbon storage:
Mangrove forests are the most carbon rich
ecosystems in the tropical region. Mangrove carbon is for approximately 75% stored in the below ground pools. The remaining 25% of the carbon is stored in the above ground pools
Loss of mangroves, shrimp farming Mangrove carbon, above ground, below ground
natural of controlled marine or freshwater. The main threat in this case is especially shrimp farming.
Carbon storage is the storage of carbon dioxide or other forms of carbon. It is important that carbon rich ecosystems remain in order to avoid disastrous climate changes.
Biology Ecosystem ecology: study of biotic and abiotic of
ecosystems and their internal interactions. This includes ecosystem services, nutrient cycles and trophic dynamics.
Carbon sink
Ecosystem function /
The ability of an ecosystem to to absorb and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. That all species have an ecological function, and that the function of a species can be represented as occupying an area of multidimensional ecological function space. It is further assumed that function space is relatively empty and therefore species can be continually added to a
community without saturating it.
Ecological resilience assumes that behavior of a system remains within the stable domain that contains this steady state. Ecological resilience assumes that an ecosystem can exist in alternative self-organized or ‘‘stable’’ states.
characteristics of biological populations over successive generations.
Resilience
Biodiversity
Appendix B: Scale for pie diagrams
Circle Item Scale
Actual scale and what it’s based on Scale conve rted (1-100) Justification Hazard Climate change 0-7000 (Gt CO2). Based on the cumul ative emissi on senari os as report ed in the study of Rogeli et all
40 Rogelj, J., Elzen, M. d., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., et al. (2016). Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. NATURE (534), 631-639. Land subside nce: 6 cm annual ly
30 Nur, Y., Fazi, S., Wirjoatmodjo, N., Han, Q. (2001). Towards wise coastal management
ground water pumpin g & plate tectonic s caused by overex ploitat ion of groun dwater resour ces and subdu ction Coastal Management, 44 335-353. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s1106 9-011-9866-9
Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development Hasanuddin Z. Abidin • Heri Andreas • Irwan Gumilar • Yoichi Fukuda • Yusuf E. Pohan • T. Deguchi
Oil spills 1 oil spill is respon sible for 5% mangr ove loss. (avg 4-6%) 1975-2008 30 oil spills occure d in Indone sië over 33 year 30 oil spills occurr ed this means that over each year oil spills were respon sible for: 0.05 x 30 / 4,5 http://www.omicsonline.com/open- access/development-of-oil-bioremediation- research-on-marine-environment-in-indonesia-1410-5217-12-263.pdf http://www.jstor.org.proxy.uba.uva.nl:2048/stab le/pdf/2388879.pdf
er is niet rekening gehouden met dat als er 5% verdwijnt en dan de volgende berekening anders is (-5%). dit verwaarlozen we omdat de
mangroves tussendoor over weer recoveren. En omdat wij exacte cijfers daarover niet kunnen vinden.
0,045 = 4,5% loss of mangr ove forests Exposure/ permanent land-use change Resident ial develop ment this is based on table 1 and table 2 of the refere nce. the urban area is showe d, we divide d the reside ntial and indust rial develo pment of urban area.
0,67 Richards, D.R., Daniel A. Friess, D.A. (2016). Rates and drivers of mangrove deforestation in Southeast Asia, 2000–2012. Environmental Sciences, Sustainability Science, 113(2): 344– 349 Industri al develop ment this is based on table 1 and table 2 of the refere nce. the urban area is showe d, we divide d the reside ntial and
1,05 Richards, D.R., Daniel A. Friess, D.A. (2016). Rates and drivers of mangrove deforestation in
Southeast Asia, 2000–2012. Environmental Sciences, Sustainability Science, 113(2): 344–349
indust rial develo pment of urban area. Erosion us$ 79.667 to comba t coastal erosio n Land loss betwe en 200-900 m in 10 years 550 m on averag e per 10 years 550 m/10 years = 55 m/yea r 50 http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ag127e/AG127 E09.htm
Land loss measured in Timbul Sloko village, Demak district, mid-Java (close to Semarang). https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2016/07 /Winterwerp-et-al-2013.pdf
(eroding mangrove mudcoasts & figure 2) Nog evt. bron (slide V)
http://www.unepscs.org/Wetlands_Training/We tland%20Case%20Studies%20and%20Country %20Reports/32-Use-Mangroves-Erosion-Control-West-Kalimantan-Indonesia.pdf Vulnerabili ty/sustain able land-use change Conversi on to aquacult ure 1-100 (52%)
52 Barbier, EB., Hacker, SD., Kennedy, C., Koch, EW., Stier, AC., Silliman, BR. (2011). The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services.
ecological Monographs, 81(2), 2011, pp. 169-193. Deforest ation for timber/ construc tion wood
22,6 Richards, D.R., Daniel A. Friess, D.A. (2016). Rates and drivers of mangrove deforestation in
Southeast Asia, 2000–2012. Environmental Sciences, Sustainability Science, 113(2): 344–349
Other product extractio
1-100
(26%) 26 Barbier, EB., Hacker, SD., Kennedy, C., Koch, EW., Stier, AC., Silliman, BR. (2011). The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services.
Appendix C: Satellite images developments
Of particular interests are the colours of the river and river mouth related to sedimentation; the amount of green related to forests and mangroves; structural developments such as housing and infrastructural developments and the created island first visible from 2013 here below. All images were download from the Google-earth web-application found on website of Time: www.time.com/timelapse2016
