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Does hedging add value?
Evidence from The Netherlands
Master Thesis
August, 2018
Abstract
This study examines the corporate use of financial derivatives and firm value. Prior research concerning the value of hedging is mainly focused on the U.S. due to data availability. This paper aims to find additional empirical evidence by using hand-collected hedging data of Dutch firms. Univariate tests and multivariate regression analyses are carried out with panel data methodology including generalized least squares and fixed effects methods. The sample includes all public non-financial Dutch firms with non-missing data during the period of 2012 to 2017. Unlike previous studies, weak evidence is found of the existence of a hedging premium. The results imply that nonfinancial Dutch firms can increase their value by hedging, but the impact is close to zero. Hence, in the case of Dutch firms, hedging does not create shareholder value.
Student:
Yirong Lo (10753974) MSc. Finance (track: Quantitative Finance)
Supervisor:
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Statement of Originality
This document is written by student Yirong Lo who declares to take full responsibility for the contents of this document.
I declare that the text and the work presented in this document are original and that no sources other than those mentioned in the text and its references have been used in creating it.
The Faculty of Economics and Business is responsible solely for the supervision of completion of the work, not for the contents.
Acknowledgements
To mark the end of a meaningful graduate experience, I would like to take this moment to express my gratitude for the ample opportunities that were given to me in the past four years at the University of Amsterdam.
A notable highlight of my academic journey was an exchange semester in Singapore, where I encountered the challenging field of Risk Management for the first time. This exposure has ultimately led me to pursue this specific Master track, this thesis topic, and perhaps the direction of a professional career in the future.
I would especially like to thank everyone who was involved in the completion of my thesis. A special word of thanks goes to my supervisor, Derya Güler, for her encouragement since the beginning of my thesis process. Furthermore, I would like to thank colleagues of team Risk Solutions at KAS BANK N.V. for their flexibility in allowing me to gain practical experience next to writing this thesis. Lastly, I am most grateful for the continuous support from my friends and family.
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Table of Contents
Statement of Originality ... 2 Acknowledgements ... 2 1 Introduction ... 4 2 Literature Review ... 72.1 Risk Management Theory ... 7
2.1.2 Hedging can reduce real costs ... 8
2.1.1 Hedging can address agency problems ... 9
2.1.4 Hedging can mitigate managerial risk aversion ... 9
2.2 Hedging and Firm Value... 10
2.3 Hedging in the Dutch Market ... 11
2.4 Hypotheses ... 12 3 Methodology ... 13 3.1 Empirical Framework ... 13 3.2 Variables ... 14 3.3 Diagnostic Tests ... 17 4 Data ... 19
4.1 Sources and Collection Procedure ... 19
4.2 Sample ... 20
4.3 Descriptive Statistics ... 21
5 Results ... 23
5.1 Univariate Results ... 23
5.2 Regression Results ... 25
6 Robustness & Discussion ... 28
7 Conclusion ... 29
7.1 Implications and Suggestions ... 29
7.2 Limitations ... 30
References ... 31
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Introduction
The corporate use of derivatives for risk management comes in the form of hedging against adverse market movements by taking offsetting positions in an underlying asset. Such financial instruments include forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Historical performance shows that large amounts of shareholder value have been destroyed due to poor hedging programs. Spectacular losses have been realized as a direct result from hedging. Real-world examples involve Metallgesellschaft AG in 1993 being forced to close futures contracts when spot prices fell, resulting in a historic $1.3 billion loss. Another example includes automotive giant, Daimler-Benz, suffering DM1.2 billion for failing to hedge its dollar receivables when the USD fell by 14% in 1995.
There is no comprehensive framework in finance theory that explains the rationale behind risk management. The Nobel-prize winning theory of financial irrelevance of Modigliani and Miller (M&M, 1958) state that financial policies of the firm are irrelevant in the absence of taxes, costs of financial distress, information asymmetries, and transaction costs; and if investors can perform the same transactions as companies. Risk management belongs to a firm’s financial policy. This implies that risk management is irrelevant to a firm because shareholders can manage their own risk by holding diversified portfolios.
In recent years, however, risk management has become a growing field of expertise both in terms of size and importance. Corporations consider risk management as one of their most important objectives (Rawls and Smithson, 1990). This development is further accompanied by a rapid increase in the use of derivative securities – 1700% – in the last two decades. According to the Bank for International Settlements1, the
derivatives market recorded total notional amounts outstanding of USD$638 trillion as of 2017/2018. This is almost ten times the global GDP. It is safe to say that the use of derivatives will continue to have an increasingly significant role in a firm’s overall risk management policy. As a result, academic debate has sparked since 1990 in an effort to explain this anomalous phenomenon.
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Mayers and Smith (1982) published the earliest work suggesting possible explanations for corporate risk management even when shareholders are likely diversified. Their focus was on property and liability insurance, rather than on derivatives, as the derivatives boom had not yet occurred. Numerous papers followed in contributing to explain hedging motives by deviating from the M&M propositions. That is, if financial risk management affects firm value, it must do so because of its impact on taxes, financial distress costs, agency costs, or transaction costs.
Despite various established theories explaining how hedging could potentially create shareholder value, improving the understanding of why firms may hedge, little empirical evidence links hedging with firm value directly. This raises the question of whether hedging achieves reasonable economic objectives, in other words: Does hedging
add value? This question is highly relevant for shareholders and the implications of risk
management as it continues to gain an important role in business operations and finance. Prior to 1990, companies were not required to disclose risk management policies because it was considered to be a part of the firm’s competitive strategy. This led to limited empirical research in this field and reliance on survey data instead. After 2000, hedging research has been concentrated on the U.S. as hedging data of U.S. firms gradually became available following a change in the IFRS accounting standard. Until this day, research on hedging and firm value is limited for countries outside North America. Hence, The Netherlands will be the geographic focus of this study due to the lack of research and existing literature. Moreover, the recent sample period is chosen to neglect the effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis and its aftermath for future implications. Financial firms are excluded due to its market-making role in derivatives.
The first to address a direct relation between hedging and firm value was Allayannis and Weston (2001). They find that hedging increases firm value by 5% for a sample of 720 non-financial firms in the US. On the contrary, Guay & Kothari (2003) examined the economic effects of derivatives positions for a sample of nonfinancial firms and concluded that potential gains of hedging are small. Their interpretation is that either the observed increase in firm value is driven by other risk management activities or that the correlation is spurious. Jin and Jorion (2004), on the other hand, find no relation between hedging and firm value for US oil and gas producers.
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The sample consists of 98 firms over which gives a total of 588 observations. Data for hedging is manually collected from over 600 annual reports. Panel data methodology is used involving univariate and multivariate analyses. With the ambiguous empirical findings, it is evident that further research is required to explore the value relevance of hedging in the case of Dutch firms. This thesis aims to provide useful insights into the value implications of hedging by examining an unexplored geographic region and a more recent sampling period.
The remainder of this paper is outlined as follows. Hypotheses are constructed following a review of existing theories and prior research in Section 2. The research methodology and sample are defined in Section 3 and 4, respectively. Section 5 presents, interprets, and discusses empirical results. Followed by robustness tests in Section 6. Finally, Section 7 concludes.
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Literature Review
This section provides background knowledge and highlights the relevance of the main research question. Related literature is reviewed in three subsections: 1. The rationale behind corporate hedging, 2. The effects of hedging on firm value, and 3. Hedging in the Dutch market. Followed by the construction of the main hypotheses.
2.1 Risk Management Theory
There is no comprehensive framework in finance theory that explains the rationale behind risk management. According to the classic Modigliani & Miller (M&M) propositions, financial decisions are irrelevant to a firm in perfect capital markets. The Nobel-prize-winning M&M Irrelevance Theorem suggests that financial policies do not affect firms if investors can perform the same transactions. This can be applied to risk management as it is part of a firm’s financial policies (MacMinn, 1987). Moreover, shareholders are perfectly able to manage their own risk. By holding diversified portfolios, for instance, or by implementing a hedging strategy themselves. This implies that corporate hedging should have no effect on shareholders’ value. In stark contrast to this principle, corporations take risk management very seriously and consider it as one of their most important objectives (Rawls and Smithson, 1990; Froot, Scharfstein, and Stein, 1993). The renowned M&M theory combined with the growing development of risk management and use of derivatives products has stimulated academic debate.
Prior to 1990, several studies examined how risk management may add value relying on theoretical models and survey data. Models were constructed mainly by introducing some friction to the perfect market assumptions in the M&M propositions. That merely holds in the absence of taxes, financial distress costs, information asymmetries, and transaction costs. When markets are imperfect, risk management creates value by reducing the volatility of the firm’s cash flows (Smith and Stulz, 1985). Schrand and Unal (1998) divide hedging research into two broad categories: 1. Papers that identify market imperfections that make volatility costly, and 2. Papers that examine why one method of reducing volatility is cheaper than another. From those papers, a theoretical framework is constructed stressing three main reasons how hedging can alter firm value. Namely, hedging could create shareholder value by: reducing real costs,
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addressing agency problems, and mitigating managerial risk aversion. These theories are briefly reviewed below.
2.1.2 Hedging can reduce real costs
There is an absence of asymmetric information in the M&M environment. That is, all market participants are able to assess costs correctly. Such a world allows for “optimal” transactions because principal-agent problems do not exist when all parties have the same information. Managers aim to maximise value for shareholders and shareholders are able to diversify the risks of the corporations on their own. Therefore, the only way that hedging can add value is if it can reduce real costs. Existing literature has identified two such gains: 1) Hedging can reduce expected tax liabilities; 2) Hedging can reduce financial distress costs.
Smith and Stulz (1985) assume that bankruptcy involves some exogenous transactions costs; a violation of the M&M assumption. They found a higher probability of financial distress if a firm does not hedge as well as higher costs incurred if it does encounter financial distress. Thus, hedging adds value by reducing the probability of not being able to repay debt. If financial distress costs are high, hedging may be used to increase debt capacity implying that corporate hedging increases with the probability of distress (Smith and Stulz, 1985).
In addition, Smith and Stulz (1985) argue that, if taxes are a convex function of earnings, it is generally optimal for firms to hedge. Convexity implies that volatile earnings lead to higher expected taxes, which is plausible for some firms. In particular, those who face a significant chance of negative earnings and are unable to carry tax losses to subsequent periods. Hence, hedging increases firm value by reducing the present value of future tax liabilities. Graham and Rogers (2002) find evidence that firms hedge to increase debt capacity and interest deductions. More specifically, they estimate that hedging adds 1.1% to firm value through tax benefits.
Apart from hedging incentives resulting from convexity, there is a significant indirect tax incentive to hedge (Froot et al., 1993). Hedging can reduce taxes by providing the opportunity to increase leverage. Trade-off between tax benefits and bankruptcy costs produce an optimal capital structure (Ross, 1996). In his study, Ross derives an optimal hedge portfolio and concludes that a firm that hedges its risk increases its optimal
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amount of debt, therefore, realizes more tax benefits from leverage. He was the first to assign numerical values relating hedging with firm value saying that hedging is worth an extra 10% - 15% for current shareholders. This claim is later confirmed by empirical studies in the US2.
2.1.1 Hedging can address agency problems
Agency problem is a common topic in Corporate Finance that arise when there is a conflict of interest between shareholders and other stakeholders, i.e. bondholders. One such problem is when managers pass on valuable investment opportunities because debtholders would capture a portion of the benefits, leaving insufficient returns to shareholders. This is also known as the underinvestment problem put forward by Myers (1977). Another example is the risk-shifting problem, where high-risk projects are preferred over low-risk projects – at the expense of debtholders – to increase returns for shareholders (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). Either case shows that agency conflicts exist when a company is (partially) debt financed.
Froot, Scharfstein, and Stein (1993) developed a general framework for analysing corporate risk management policies. The authors observe that there is a benefit to hedging if external sources of financing are more costly than internally generated funds. In this case, hedging adds value due to explicit and implicit cost savings by ensuring that a firm has sufficient internal funds available to take on profitable investment opportunities. Therefore, hedging reduces the probability that a corporation will have to engage in costly external financing (Froot et al., 1993). Consequently, hedging also reduces the probability that a firm would forego profitable investments due to a lack of internal funds. Leland (1998), in addition, examines risk management and find that hedging permits greater leverage. His evidence indicates that hedging benefits are higher when agency costs are low. In other words, hedging can create shareholder value by reducing the need for debt financing.
2.1.4 Hedging can mitigate managerial risk aversion
The previous theories assumed that managers act in the best interest of shareholders. In addition to reducing potential financial distress costs and tax expenses, Stulz (1985) suggests that risk aversion of managers drives corporate hedging. While outside
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stockholders are able to diversify their portfolio risk, making them indifferent to a firm’s hedging activity, the same cannot be said for managers who often hold a large amount of their wealth in the firm’s stock. Stulz (1985) argues that managers are strictly better off, without costing outside stockholders anything, by reducing the variance of total firm value.
Tufano (1996) obtains little empirical support for the predictive power of theories that view risk management as a means to maximize shareholder value. He does find evidence that firms whose managers hold more stock hedge more gold price risk. Thus, suggesting that risk management may be affected by managerial risk aversion. He further observes a negative relation between the tenure of CFO’s and risk management, which perhaps reflects managerial interests, skills, or preferences.
Another managerial theory of hedging, based on asymmetric information, is explored by Breeden and Viswanathan (1990) and DeMarzo and Duffie (1992). Their models suggest that the labour market revises the ability of managers based on firm performance. This can result in some managers undertaking hedges in an attempt to influence the labour market’s perception.
2.2 Hedging and Firm Value
Despite the range of theories explaining the rationale of hedging, there is little empirical evidence that directly relates hedging with firm value. Early studies on risk management practices were restricted due to data availability. Companies were not required to disclose risk mitigation policies as risk mitigation was considered to be a firm’s strategy competitive. The rapid rise of derivatives usage has changed accounting standards requiring firms to expose their risk management policies. This change has allowed a new generation of research with derivatives use as the explanatory variable.
Among the earliest studies on a direct relation between hedging and firm value is by Allayannis & Weston (2001). They found that firm value, measured in Tobin’s Q ratio, is 5% higher for firms that hedge currency risk in a sample of 720 large US firms between 1990 and 1995. With a median market value of $4 billion, this translates into an average value added of almost $200 million for firms using foreign currency derivatives. On the contrary, Guay & Kothari (2003) examined the economic effects of derivatives positions
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for a sample of nonfinancial firms and concluded that potential gains of hedging are small. Their interpretation is that either the observed increase in firm value is driven by other risk management activities or that the correlation is spurious. Additionally, Jin & Jorion (2006) verified that hedging reduces the firm’s stock price sensitivity but does not affect firm value for a sample of 119 US oil and gas producers. A more recent paper by Panaretou (2014) investigated 1372 large non-financial UK firms. He finds that the hedging premium is statistically and economically significant for foreign currency derivative users. Consistent with this, Bua et al. (2015) find an average hedging premium of 1.53% with respect to company value (Tobin’s Q) in a sample of 400 Spanish firms. Overall, the empirical evidence regarding the effect of hedging on firm value remains inconclusive. A full overview of the existing research can be found in Appendix 1 (p.33).
2.3 Hedging in the Dutch Market
To the best of our knowledge, hedging and firm value have not yet been investigated concerning the Dutch market mainly due to data availability. As of 2007, Dutch firms are required to disclose information about the significance of financial instruments to an entity, and the nature and extent of risks arising from those financial instruments, both in qualitative and quantitative terms (IFRS 7, 2007). Unlike the US GAAP, the IFRS does not require companies to disclose notional amounts of derivatives. To this date, this has undoubtedly restricted the extent of hedging research in European markets. This paper aims to contribute to the lack of empirical evidence in Europe by investigating firms in The Netherlands.
Bodnar, de Jong, and Macrae (2003) compared derivatives usage of U.S. and Dutch firms and found institutional differences. Their results indicate that Dutch firms hedge more financial risk than U.S. firms which can be explained by the greater openness of The Netherlands. Dutch companies experience far more foreign exchange exposure (Bodnar et al., 2003). Hence, Dutch firms hedge more currency risk. Whereas US firms are more careful with the use of derivatives due to stricter disclosure requirements in the US. Moreover, Bodnar et al. (2003) argue that U.S. firms focus more on accounting earnings, which may be attributable to the importance of shareholder value in the US versus the stakeholder value in The Netherlands. Another institutional difference is that Dutch firms rely more on over-the-counter transactions. While US firms use exchange-traded
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derivatives more. Therefore, U.S. firms require a higher credit rating for derivatives transactions. These findings prove the existence of institutional differences in the financial environments between the U.S. and The Netherlands. Therefore, the effect of risk management practices and derivatives use may be significantly different between U.S. and Dutch firms.
2.4 Hypotheses
The objective of this paper is to investigate whether hedging is a value-adding activity for Dutch firms. The diverse results in Section 2.2 lead to the following formulation of the hypotheses. If hedging adds value, hedgers should have higher firm value on average. Hence, the first hypothesis tests the difference in firm value between hedgers and non-hedgers.
Hypothesis 1: Hedgers and non-hedgers are equally valued (μHedgers = μNon-Hedgers)
The second hypothesis identifies a causal relationship between hedging and firm value by testing whether hedging increases firm value. In other words, the effect of hedging should not equal zero if hedging adds value.
Hypothesis 2: Hedging does not increase firm value (β1 = 0, θ1 = 0 )
These hypotheses is tested following the approach of Allayannis & Weston (2001) and Magee (2009) explained in the next section. This research aims to contribute to existing literature by providing new evidence on a different geographic region and time period employing a unique dataset.
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3
Methodology
This section describes the empirical approach of the research method. The framework is based on various prior studies explaining the impact of hedging on firm value. Followed by diagnostic tests to confirm fundamental model assumptions. Furthermore, explanations of the choice and construction of variables are provided.
3.1 Empirical Framework
3.1.1 Univariate Analysis
A straightforward way to test whether hedgers have higher firm value than hedgers is to compare the two groups. By splitting the sample into hedgers and non-hedgers, the difference in mean values can be tested using simple t-tests. In economic terms, the existence of a difference in firm value is a hedging premium (or discount). Although univariate analysis is performed in numerous related articles3, it cannot test
cause and effect relationships because only one variable is analyzed at a time. For this reason, the remainder of the methodology consists multivariate regression analyses.
3.1.2 Regression Analysis
This study aims to investigate whether hedging with financial derivatives is a value-adding activity. In order to investigate the value implications of hedging, other factors affecting firm value must be controlled for. Similar to previous studies3, I make use of
multiple linear regressions with panel data to test the relationship between hedging and firm value. There are various benefits of using panel data. It is more informative than cross-sectional or time-series data as it greatly increases the number of observations for this research. Moreover, panel data considers heterogeneity and allows for more variation as well as increases degrees of freedom. It also shows less collinearity and makes the results more generalizable. The regression equations look as follows:
ln(FVi,t) = α + β1𝐻𝑒𝑑𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐷𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦i,t+ 𝛾X′i,t+ εi,t
ln(FVi,t) = δ + θ1𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐻𝑒𝑑𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑔i,t+ 𝜆X′i,t+ ωi,t
3Allayannis and Weston (2001); Allayannis et al. (2012); Panaretou (2013); Ayturk et al. (2016)
(1) (2)
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Where FVi,t is a measure of firm value for firm i in year t. Hedging, Hi,t, is the main
explanatory variable and represented by a hedger variable (dummy) or, alternatively, the notional amount of hedging (continuous variable). X’i,t is a vector of all control variables
which are explained in the next section. The intercepts are α and δ. The error terms are εi,t andωi,t, which represent the residual part of firm value that is not explained by the
independent variables. In other words, β1 is the change in the log of firm value as a result
of whether the firm hedges. Whereas θ is the change as a result of a one-unit change in hedging.
3.2 Variables
3.2.1 Dependent Variable
The dependent variable is firm value, which in theory and practice can be measured in numerous ways. The primary objective of a firm is to maximize value for its shareholders and/or stakeholders. In the case of public firms, this can be calculated from the share price or book values on the balance sheet. Furthermore, the efficient market hypothesis suggests that share prices fully reflect all available information. Hence, the market value of equity should reflect shareholder value as it is forward-looking, risk-adjusted and less susceptible to changes in accounting practices (Wernerfelt and Montgomery 1988). Following Panaretou, we make use of the Chung and Pruitt (1994) approximation of Tobin’s Q as they have shown that there is a high degree of correlation between this simple construction of Tobin’s Q and more rigorous approximations as a proxy for firm value. Hence, the market value of the firm is calculated as the market value of equity plus the liquidation value of firm’s outstanding preferred stock and total debt.
FV1= ln(𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 + 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡
𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 )
To check the robustness of our results, we employ two alternative measures for firm value. Another approximation for firm value, following Allayannis and Weston (2001), is calculated as the ratio of the book value of total assets minus the book value of equity plus the market value of equity to the book value of total assets (FV2).
FV2= ln(𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 + 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 − 𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦
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Additionally, an industry-adjusted firm value measure is constructed. This is relevant given the large percentage of industrially diversified firms in the sample. Following Panaretou (2013), industry-adjusted firm value is calculated as the difference between the individual firm value and the industry median, both log-transformed.
𝐹𝑉3 = 𝑙𝑛(𝐹𝑉1𝑖) − 𝐼𝑛(𝐹𝑉1𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦−𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛)
3.2.2 Main Independent Variable
The main explanatory variable is hedging measured by the use of financial derivatives. Dutch firms follow the accounting framework of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as adopted by the EU. The IFRS “requires disclosure of information about the significance of financial instruments to an entity, and the nature and extent of risks arising from those financial instruments, both in qualitative and quantitative terms” (IFRS 7, 2007). More specifically, effective as of 2005, it is required that all derivatives are marked-to-market with changes in the mark-to-market being taken to the profit and loss account (IAS39, 2003). Thus, in addition to reporting risk exposures and mitigation strategies, the IFRS requires firms to disclose derivative positions in terms of fair value. The fair value of a financial instrument is the mark-to-market price at which it is traded on the day of valuation. Hence, it greatly fluctuates depending on the underlying asset and maturity of the contract. Since financial statements merely document values at one specific moment in time, it does not reflect the annual amount of derivatives usage. Previous research on European countries under IFRS have all used hedging dummies for this reason. However, I have found quite a large number of Dutch firms that report the principal notional amounts of outstanding derivative contracts voluntarily. The notional value is the total amount of a security’s underlying asset at its spot price at the time the contract was entered into. This is a comparable measure of units that is constant over time. Therefore, allowing for the creation of a continuous variable for hedging in monetary terms which is a more efficient and accurate measure. Hence, in this research, hedging is measured in two ways:
1. A dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm hedges risk with interest rate, currency, and/or commodity derivatives; 0 otherwise.
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Firm Size – Intuitively, larger firms are expected to have higher firm value simply for
having more assets and/or revenue. Empirical evidence regarding the effect of firm size on firm value, however, remains inconclusive. It is still important to control for size because larger firms might have more resources for hedging than smaller firms. Following Allayanis and Weston (2001), firm size is controlled for by taking the natural logarithm of total assets.
𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒 = 𝑙𝑛 (𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠)
Profitability – Shareholders naturally value profitability because it generates return.
Hence, more profitable firms are expected to have a higher firm value. Profitability can be measured by net income scaled by total assets, also known as ROA.
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
Leverage – Capital structure may be related to firm value in accordance with the trade-off
theory of leverage (Kraus and Litzenberger, 1973) . This is because firms can choose how much debt and equity to use for financing. Hence, firms can optimize its value by balancing cost of capital and tax benefits of debt. A straightforward proxy for leverage is the debt to assets ratio:
𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
Growth Opportunities – Similar to profitability, shareholders value a firm’s growth
potential for its future returns. Firm value is expected to be higher for firms with more investment opportunities. A proxy for future investment opportunities is capital and R&D expenditure divided by total assets.
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 =𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 + 𝑅&𝐷 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
International Diversification – Firms operating in multiple countries are diversified
against geographic factors, agency problems. controlled for by the percentage of foreign sales out of total sales.
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
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Liquidity – Firms that are more liquid are better able to repay debt, hence, less likely to
go bankrupt. Shareholders are expected to value this aspect positively. Liquidity is measured as the ratio of cash and cash equivalents to current liabilities.
𝐿𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 =𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠
Capital Constraint – Access to financial markets is argued to affect a firm’s investment
decisions. If a firm is capital constrained, it can only take on projects with the highest NPV’s. A dividend dummy that equals 1 if the firm issued dividends in the current year is used to proxy a firm’s capital constraint. Dividends can be viewed as a positive signal from management. Hence, the sign of the coefficient may be negative or positive.
Time effects – Year dummies are used in all regressions to control for time effects.
Furthermore, industry effects are controlled for by the firm value variable adjusted for industry. Unlike Allayannis and Weston (2001), business diversification and credit rating controls are not included in the model. The former due to presence of multicollinearity with other dummies. The latter because adding seven credit dummies may reduce the power of the test, given the relatively small sample size in the multivariate regression analysis.
3.3 Diagnostic Tests
As described in the methodology above, this research makes use of econometric models involving linear regressions. It is therefore important to test certain primary assumptions of linear regression. So that adjustments can be made accordingly when assumptions are violated.
3.3.1 Linearity
One of the key assumptions of a linear regression is that the relationships between the dependent and independent variables are linear. To detect non-linearity, joint Wald tests are performed for the parameters of each variable (see Appendix 3).
3.3.2 Homoscedasticity
OLS estimation assumes that the variance of the error term is constant. Homoscedasticity can be checked by plotting the residuals of the regression model against its fitted values. The graph shows a clear clustered pattern and indicates
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heteroscedasticity (see Appendix 4). Hence, robust standard errors are used in all regressions hereafter to allow for correlation among the residuals.
3.3.3 No Autocorrelation
The Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data is performed (see Appendix 5). Serial correlation in the residuals is found. Hence, to allow for correlation across panels, generalized least squares method is used instead of ordinary least squares.
3.3.4 Normality
Linear regressions require all variables to be normally distributed. Histograms of all variables are provided in Appendix 6. As expected, firm value and total assets are not normal, hence log-transformed.
3.3.5 No Multicollinearity
Multicollinearity is present when there is a strong correlation between the independent variables. A Pearson correlation matrix including all the independent and control variables is presented in Appendix 7. A commonly used rule of thumb is that correlation coefficient between two explanatory variables greater than 0.8 indicates a strong linear association. The correlations between our variables are generally small. Hence, there is no indication of multicollinearity. None of the variables have a correlation above 0.8.
3.3.6 Fixed Effects versus Random Effects
Panel data analysis requires assumptions of its model parameters, generally Pooled OLS, Random Effects, or Fixed Effects. Prior studies have run regressions with the Fixed Effects model to control for unobservable firm characteristics that may affect value. To confirm this model assumption, I test Fixed Effects against Random Effects with a Hausman test (see Appendix 8). The result of the Hausman test suggests that Fixed Effects is indeed preferred. Hence, fixed firm effects are used in all regressions.
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4
Data
Panel data is obtained from Compustat Global, Datastream, and annual reports. The dataset includes all publically-listed Dutch non-financial firms with non-missing values between 2012 and 2017. The final sample consists of 98 individual firms covering 6 fiscal years, which results in 588 firm-year observations.
Prior research on the relationship between hedging and firm value was restricted mainly due to data availability. Companies were not required to disclose risk mitigation strategies before 1990. This led to a reliance on survey data instead. Moreover, The Netherlands is the geographic focus of this study due to the lack of research and existing literature. The recent sample period is chosen to neglect the effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis and its aftermath for future implications. Financial firms are excluded due to its market-making role in derivatives.
4.1 Sources and Collection Procedure
4.1.1 Compustat and DataStream
First, the ISO country code of incorporation (FIC) is set equal to The Netherlands. This classifies a firm as Dutch when they are legally registered in the country, without requiring to have operations in The Netherlands or be listed on a Dutch stock exchange. Secondly, non-missing data over the fiscal years of 2012 to 2017 is required for a balanced panel. This means that firms with missing values are dropped, i.e., due to late IPO, early bankruptcy, or being acquired between 2012-2017. Thirdly, financial institutions are excluded by dropping banks and insurers, rather than dropping the entire financial sector. This would otherwise exclude real estate firms and other funds that are not market makers in derivatives but do use it for hedging. Similar to Ayturk et al. (2016), no firm size threshold is included since it would significantly decrease the sample size. A full list of the 98 Dutch firms can be found in Appendix 2, p. 36.
The following standard annual accounting variables are obtained from Compustat: total assets, revenue, net income, stockholders equity, long-term debt, short-term debt, current liabilities, R&D expenses, capital expenditure, and dividends. Additional data, not available in Compustat, are retrieved from DataStream including market value of equity
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(=market capitalization), foreign sales/total sales ratio, and multiple SIC codes per company.
4.1.2 Hedging Data
Data for hedging is hand-collected from annual reports obtained from company websites. Over 600 documents are manually scanned with search terms such as ‘hedg’, ‘notional’, ‘futures’, ‘forward contract’, and ‘swap’. When such terms are found, the text is carefully read to confirm that the derivatives were used for hedging purposes. Four dummy variables and, when available, principal notional amounts are collected. The four hedging dummy variables are created as follows:
- Interest rate hedger = 1 if the firm hedged interest rate risk with interest rate derivatives in that year; 0 otherwise.
- Currency hedger = 1 if the firm hedged currency risk with currency derivatives in that year; 0 otherwise.
- Commodity price hedger = 1 if the firm hedged commodity price risk with commodity derivatives in that year; 0 otherwise.
- Hedger = 1 if the sum of the three aforementioned dummies is greater than 0; 0 otherwise.
4.2 Sample
Merging the datasets from Compustat, DataStream, and annual reports resulted in 98 unique firms with 6-year non-missing values, thus 588 firm-year observations. An overview of the sample is provided in Table 1. Roughly 60% of the observations use financial derivatives for hedging purposes. These hedgers are further segmented into currency hedgers (80%), interest rate hedgers (68%), and commodity price hedgers (27%). The distribution of hedging over the years can be found in Appendix 3, p.37.
In line with previous findings, firms use currency derivatives the most. Currency risk being the most hedged could be explained by the fact that The Netherlands has an open economy and depend heavily on foreign trade with a current account surplus. This is consistent with the findings of Bodnar et al. (2003). The largest industries in The Netherlands by the number of observations are Manufacturing (276) and Services (150). The smallest number of observations are found in Mining (18) and Wholesale Trade (18). Moreover, firms in the Utilities segment are all hedgers.
21 Table 1. Sample Overview
The sample includes all publicly-listed non-financial Dutch firms with non-missing data during the years 2012 to 2017. A firm is classified as hedger if it reported hedging interest rate, currency, and/or commodity price risk with derivatives in that year. Non-hedgers are firms that do not make use of any financial derivatives for hedging purposes in that year. Industries are classified according to 2-digit SIC codes.
Hedgers Non-Hedgers
N Currency (%) Interest rate (%) Commodity price (%) (%)
By industry: Mining 18 66.67 55.56 11.11 11.11 Construction 30 43.33 73.33 20.00 23.33 Manufacturing 276 60.87 44.57 29.71 29.35 Utilities 30 93.33 80.00 23.33 0.00 Wholesale Trade 18 100.00 72.22 0.00 11.11 Retail Trade 42 57.14 54.76 0.00 30.95 Real Estate 24 8.33 8.33 0.00 87.50 Services 150 16.00 19.33 0.00 74.00 Total 588 80.34 68.26 27.25 40.31
Note that multiple types of risk can be hedged simultaneously. An example to interpret the table: 40.31% of the total sample are non-hedgers. This means that 59.69% are hedgers. From the total amount of hedgers, 80.34% hedge currency risk. Thus, approximately 48% of the total sample uses currency derivatives for hedging purposes (0.5969×0.8034=0.4795).
4.3 Descriptive Statistics
Summary statistics of relevant variables are shown in Table 2. Firms in the sample have a mean (median) market cap of €4,264 (€404) million and mean (median) value of assets of €9,983 (€625) million. This is similar to the samples in previous studies focusing on the US, Spanish, and French markets, except that small firms have not been excluded which is similar to Ayturk who studied the Turkish market. The average D/E ratio is 68%, 34% issue dividends, average profit margin of -0.35%. This is also similar to the sample in previous studies. Additionally, it can be seen that median values are smaller than mean values. For example, the relatively large difference in mean and median of total assets indicates that there are more smaller firms in the sample than larger firms. The same is true for total sales and market cap. This skewness is corrected for by log-transformation of the variables.
Out of the 588 observations, 351 are classified as hedgers. Total notional derivatives amounts are recorded for 434 observations. Thus, the sample size is smaller for the regression with the continuous hedging variable.On average, a Dutch firm hedges €1.97 billion per year in total notional amounts. Hedgers that did not report notional
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values are accepted as missing values. The low hedging medians are due to non-hedgers (40%) having a notional derivatives value of 0, in line with the hedging dummies.
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics
This table presents summary statistics that describe the sample, including all variables. The sample includes all public non-financial Dutch firms with non-missing data from 2012-2017. Firm characteristics are directly obtained from Compustat and DataStream. The dependent variable is firm value, measured in four ways as described on p.14. Detailed construction of the control variables are explained on p.15&16. Data of hedging variables are manually collected from annual reports.
N Mean Median St. Dev. Min Max
Firm characteristics
Total assets (€ mln) 588 11,944.26 663.19 44815 0.007 565258
Total sales (€ mln) 588 12,816.72 793.81 81593.39 0 1295008
Market Cap (€ mln) 588 4419.06 405.85 9904.83 0.95 86096.44
Business Diversification (dummy) 588 0.6531 1 0.4764 0 1
Dependent variable FV1 588 0.1433 0.0629 0.9113 -1.8072 4.7885 FV2 588 0.4589 0.3303 0.7648 -1.5238 4.7958 FV3 588 0.1092 7.45e-9 0.9002 -1.9232 4.7861 Hedging variables Hedger dummy 588 0.5969 1 0.4909 0 1
Interest rate hedger dummy 588 0.4184 0 0.4937 0 1
Currency hedger dummy 588 0.4915 0 0.5004 0 1
Commodity price hedger dummy 588 0.1650 0 0.3715 0 1
Total Hedging (€ mln) 434 343.4272 0 10544.84 0 107909
Interest Rate Hedging (€ mln) 510 343.43 0 1232.93 0 12400
Currency Hedging (€ mln) 508 1,509.2 0 8696.50 0 99606
Commodity price hedging (€ mln) 540 12.333 0 77.62 0 765
Control variables Firm Size 588 6.3844 6.4971 2.9126 -4.9618 13.245 Profitability 588 -0.1289 0.0229 1.0232 -7.9061 1.7180 Leverage 588 0.3011 0.2172 0.6505 0 9.1660 Growth Opportunities 588 0.0796 0.0422 0.2023 0 3.9239 International Diversification 588 0.4604 0.5255 0.4107 0 1 Liquidity 588 0.6422 0.2198 1.4206 -0.6512 9.5911 Dividend dummy 588 0.3384 0 0.4736 0 1
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5
Results
This section presents empirical results from the analyses that test the main hypothesis. That is, whether hedging adds value to shareholders. Two approaches are used: 1. univariate tests to compare hedgers with non-hedgers, and 2. Multivariate regression analysis to test the effect of hedging on firm value.
5.1 Univariate Results
The main hypothesis that firms using derivatives for hedging are rewarded by investors with higher valuation is tested here. Hedgers and non-hedgers are split using the hedger dummy variable using four measures of firm value. A firm is classified as hedger if it reported in that year to have used derivatives for hedging purposes. Firm value is compared between hedgers and non-hedgers using two-sample t-tests of mean values, as shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Comparison of Firm Value between Hedgers and Non-hedgers This table presents a univariate comparison of firm value (FV) between hedgers and non-hedgers with three different measures. The construction of the three measures of firm value are explained in detail on p.14. A firm is classified as hedger for a given year if it reports to have managed risk with the use of derivatives. The sample consists of 588 observations and includes all public non-financial Dutch firms in the period 2012-2017.
Hedgers Non-Hedgers Difference t-value
General hedging FV1 0.0422 0.2930 -0.2508*** -3.3010 FV2 0.3714 0.5886 -0.2172*** -3.4086 FV3 0.0496 0.3020 -0.2524*** -3.9798 Currency hedging FV1 0.0650 0.2190 -0.1540** -2.0537 FV2 0.3885 0.5270 -0.1385** -2.2021 FV3 0.0499 0.2494 -0.1995*** -3.1918
Interest rate hedging
FV1 0.0418 0.2163 -0.1745** -2.2990
FV2 0.3946 0.5052 -0.1106* -1.7326
FV3 0.0798 0.2028 -0.1230* -1.9310
Commodity price hedging
FV1 -0.0731 0.1860 -0.2591** -2.5715
FV2 0.3161 0.4871 -0.1710** -2.0175
FV3 -0.0334 0.1878 -0.2213*** -2.6208
Difference in the means are compared using t-tests.
The 1% outliers of Firm Value are winsorized by replacement.
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Table 3 reports differences in mean firm values and related t statistics obtained from twelve t-tests. The hypothesis is tested separately for general hedging, currency hedging, interest rate hedging, and commodity price hedging. Four types of hedging are examined, each with three measures of firm value. General hedging represents firms that reported to have used currency, interest rate, and/or commodity derivatives for hedging purposes in a given year. Whereas currency hedging, interest rate hedging, and commodity price
hedging represent the corresponding type of hedging separately.
The univariate results suggest that hedgers have lower firm value in comparison to non-hedgers. This is true for all three different measures of firm value and indicates some robustness. The difference in firm value between firms that use either type of hedging (General hedging) as opposed to firms that do not hedge at all is -0.25, -0.22, and -0.25 for all three measures respectively. In economic terms4, this translates into value
differences of -22.18%, -19.52%, and -22.31% resulting in an average hedging discount of -21.34%. This finding rejects the hypothesis at a 1% significance level and suggests that hedgers are valued lower than non-hedgers. More specifically, using the same calculation method, the average hedging discounts are 15.09% for currency hedging, -12.68% for interest rate hedging, and -19.47% commodity hedging.
From the three types of hedging, commodity price hedging seems to be the most negative. Commodity derivatives are also the least used for hedging, as shown in the sample overview (Table 1). A plausible reason for this may be that commodities are often part of a firm’s core business. Therefore, fluctuations in commodity prices would impact the firm’s core business more than currency or interest rate changes would in general. Another reason why the results of commodity price hedging deviate from currency and interest rate hedging could be due to the small sample size. The sample records only 16% of commodity hedgers. While roughly 50% and 40% is reported for currency and interest hedgers.
Overall, the univariate findings are vastly inconsistent with numerous studies that infer a valuation premium imposed by the use of derivatives. An explanation may be due to the existence of large differences in structural characteristics as well as market valuation of Dutch and U.S. firms. Instead, evidence of a hedging discount is in line with
25
Khediri (2010) and, to an extent, supports Jin & Jorion (2006) and Ayturk et al. (2016). Khediri (2010) argues that a hedging discount exists due to investors’ perception of corporate hedging decisions which may be linked to insider’s motives and their risk aversion. Hence, investors value the derivatives use at a discount.
To further analyze the differences between hedgers and non-hedgers, an additional comparison between hedgers and non-hedgers are drawn from other variables (see Appendix 9, p.38). The results in A3 show that the characteristics of hedgers and non-hedgers are significantly different within the sample. More specifically, hedgers are larger in size; more profitable and diversified; and more likely to issue dividends. Whereas non-hedgers are more leveraged, liquid, and have more growth opportunities. Differences in these variables could also explain why hedgers are valued lower by shareholders. So it is important to further investigate with regression analyses in order to identify a causal relationship.
5.2 Regression Results
The findings in the univariate tests suggest that hedgers are valued lower by investors than non-hedgers. In this paragraph, linear regressions are performed to control for other variables that may have impact on firm value. To estimate the coefficients of Equations 1 & 2, two panel regression models are used. Model 1 regresses on the Hedging Dummy and estimates with generalized least squares method. Whereas Model 2 regresses the Amount of Hedging with fixed firm effects method. Following previous studies, the model includes various control variables and year dummies to fix for time-specific effects as well.
For a clear appearance, one measure of firm value (FV1) as dependent variable is presented here. The other two measures are presented in the robustness section later. The number of observations for notional amounts of hedging (434) is lower than that of hedging dummies (588). This is due to some firms that do not report notional values of derivatives usage although they do report hedging activity. In such cases, the notional value of derivative instruments are accepted as missing data. Additionally, for some observation years, multiple types of hedging are executed, but not all notional values are reported. Therefore, the number of observations in Model (2) for General Hedging is lower while it represents the total sample. Regression results are indicated in Table 4.
26 Table 4. Effect of Hedging on Firm Value
This table presents panel regression results. Model 1 is estimated with Generalized Least Squares method on a hedging dummy that equals 1 if the firm has reported the use of derivatives for hedging in a given year. While Model 2 regresses on the total notional amount of hedging reported in a given year with Fixed Effects method. Firm Value is calculated as the natural log of [(MV Equity + Preferred Stock + Total Debt)/BV Assets]. Construction of control variables are described on p. 16&17. Year dummies are included to control for time effects.
General Hedging Currency Hedging Interest Rate Hedging Commodity Price Hedging
Dependent variable: Firm Value
(1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2)
Hedging (Dummy) 0.0063 0.5171 0.0949 -0.0960
(0.01) (0.85) (0.23) (-0.14)
Amount of Hedging (Notional) 7.87e-6*** 7.51e-6** 3.13e-5** -0.0006***
(2.74) (2.41) (2.37) (-3.16) Firm Size -0.3590*** -0.5667*** -0.3879*** -0.5610*** -0.3512*** -0.5569*** -0.3571*** -0.5509*** (-4.24) (-12.22) (-4.63) (-12.66) (-3.95) (2.37) (-4.07) (-12.57) Profitability -0.5982* -0.0804 -0.6289** -0.0948 -0.6188* -0.1011 -0.5973* -0.1126 (-1.77) (-0.38) (-2.20) (-0.45) (-1.92) (-0.47) (-1.87) (-0.53) Leverage 1.5263 0.1899*** 0.0879 0.1921*** 1.4899 0.1891*** 1.4696 0.1914*** (1.46) (8.53) (0.16) (8.45) (1.51) (7.74) (1.47) (7.88) Growth Opportunities -1.3369 0.2272 -1.1952 0.2710* -1.3934 0.2524 -1.3618 0.2025 (-1.38) (1.51) (-1.10) (1.78) (-1.51) (1.60) (-1.48) (1.30) International Diversification 0.9411* 0.3235** 1.4401*** 0.2967** 0.9763** 0.1811 0.9903** 0.1643 (1.89) (2.08) (4.15) (2.01) (2.31) (1.21) (2.12) (1.22) Liquidity 0.4009* -0.0331** 0.2706 -0.0312* 0.4128* -0.0259 0.4023* -0.0265 (1.81) (-2.11) (1.12) (-1.95) (1.94) (-1.51) (1.86) (-1.55) Dividend Dummy 0.9854*** 0.1315 0.7681 0.1288 0.9854*** 0.1303* 0.9783*** 0.1323* (3.62) (1.47) (2.07) (1.59) (3.56) (1.76) (3.13) (1.79)
Year Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
Intercept 0.4840 3.4469*** 1.5615*** 3.5097*** 0.4253 3.5506 0.4922 3.4947
(0.76) (12.24) (3.34) (12.52) (0.71) (12.30) (0.95) (12.79)
R2 0.2539 0.2329 0.2256 0.2154
N 588 434 588 508 588 510 588 540
In parentheses are robust t-statistics. All standard errors are clustered at the firm level. The 1% outliers of Firm Value and Profitability is winsorized by replacement.
R2 values are the model’s Overall-R2 (weighted average of the Within-R2 and Between-R2). R2 from GLS estimation does not have the same interpretation. Hence, R2 of model (1) are not reported.
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From the regression analysis, weak evidence is found of the existence of a hedging premium for Dutch firms during the sample period. Overall, the coefficients are positive for both the Hedging Dummy and the Amount of Hedging except when considering commodity hedging separately.
The coefficients of the Hedging Dummy variable represent the change in firm value when a firm hedges compared to a firm that does not hedge. Firm value increases by 0.63%5 when a firm hedges either currency, interest rate, and/or commodity price risk.
As for currency, interest rate, and commodity hedging, the effects are 67.72%, 9.95%, and -9.15%, respectively. These results, however, are not significant and, thus, provide no evidence that hedging increases firm value. Moreover, results from the Hedging Dummy can be misleading as it does not measure the exact level of hedging. To solve this issue, a continuous variable is included measuring the notional amounts of outstanding derivatives.
When the Amount of Hedging is considered, the coefficients indicate a slight increase in firm value following an increase in the extent of hedging in terms of notional amounts. In other words, the greater the hedging position, the higher the firm value. The coefficients are significant at a 1-5% level. However, the effects seem to be very small. For example, hedging an additional €1 million of currency exposure increases firm value by 0.00075%. The results imply that nonfinancial Dutch firms can increase their value by hedging, but the impact is extremely small.
Furthermore, some control variable have an effect on firm value as well. Significant results are found for firm size, leverage, international diversification, liquidity, and dividend dummy. The signs of these coefficients seem to be logical and as expected. Leverage, International Diversification, and Dividend Dummy are positively related to firm value, whereas, Firm Size and Profitability are negatively related to firm value. The negative signs for size is in line with the findings of Chun et al. (1985). They explained that smaller firms are riskier and captured the size effect in the risk premium that justifies higher returns for smaller firms. As expected, dividends are positively associated with firm value. Negative signs for profitability are counter-intuitive.
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6
Robustness & Discussion
Several additional tests are performed to examine the robustness of our results. We test whether the results obtained from the estimation of Models (1) and (2) are robust to the alternative measures of firm value (FV2 and FV3). Results of the robustness tests are presented in Appendix 10, 11, and 12. The inference of our results does not change after running the regression models another sixteen times with different measures. Thus, the robustness checks support the earlier results that hedging does not increase firm value.
Overall, the results are largely inconsistent with earlier studies. Allayannis and Weston (2001), Panaretou (2014), and Bua et al. (2015) found a statistically and economically significant hedging premium of 5%, 14%-16%, and 1.53%, respectively. The discrepancy in the results could be explained by the different country focus as well as the different sampling period. On the contrary, our results are most in line with Guay & Kothari (2003) who concluded that potential gains of hedging are positive but small. Their interpretation is that either the observed increase in firm value is driven by other risk management activities or that the correlation is spurious. In addition, the insignificance supports the findings of Jin & Jorion (2006) who verified that hedging reduces the firm’s stock price sensitivity but does not affect firm value for a sample of 119 US oil and gas producers. Another reasoning suggested by Tufano (1996) is that hedging reflects managerial risk aversion and may actually harm firm value if risk management is costly.
Our evidence raises doubts about the conclusions of existing literature. The small increase in firm value documented in our research could indicate that the relationship is indeed either driven by other risk management activities or that the results are spurious. However, given the small number of firms in our sample, the lack of significant results could be due to the relatively low power of the empirical tests.
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7
Conclusion
This study examines the corporate use of financial derivatives and firm value in The Netherlands. Univariate tests and multivariate regression analyses are carried out with panel data methodology including generalized least squares and fixed effects methods. The sample consists of 98 public non-financial Dutch firms during the period of 2012 to 2017. Total firm-year observations of 588 are segmented into currency, interest rate, and commodity hedgers. Similar to U.S. and U.K. studies, the use of currency and interest rate derivatives is more common than the use of commodity derivatives. More than half of the sample – roughly 60% – reported the use of derivatives for hedging purposes. At the same time, a Dutch firm hedges €1.97 billion per year in total notional amounts on average. This supports the view that Dutch firms are widely exposed to currency and interest rate risk. Therefore, Dutch firms have high incentives to hedge. The empirical results, however, indicate that hedging does not add value for Dutch firms. On the one hand, univariate results indicate an average hedging discount of -21.34% for any type of hedger compared to a nonhedger. More specifically, the average hedging discounts are -15.09% for currency hedging, -12.68% for interest rate hedging, and -19.47% commodity hedging. On the other hand, regression results suggest a very small hedging premium of 0.0000787% significant at a 1% level for hedging in general. This translates into a mere 0.0000787% increase of firm value following an additional €1 million notional amount in hedging instruments. The results are furthermore robust to different measures of firm value. Conclusively, hedgers are valued significantly lower than non-hedgers and the value-adding component of hedging is close to zero. Hedging, therefore, does not add value in the case of Dutch firms.
7.1 Implications and Suggestions
The above empirical results are an extension of existing research. Since prior studies are mostly concentrated on the U.S., the main contribution of this research is the use of a unique dataset for The Netherlands that is not readily available to investigate the value implications of hedging. The discrepancy between this research and numerous existing studies suggests that there are major differences between Dutch and U.S. firms. For instance, corporate governance may indirectly affect the valuation of derivatives use. The research topic is relevant for risk management practices as well as shareholders. Further research is therefore required to determine whether corporate hedging should
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be considered an important component of a firm’s risk management policy and/or whether corporate hedging is a value-enhancing activity. Finally, while this study provides useful insight in the hedging activity of Dutch firms, the implications are sample specific. Future research should focus on more generalizable out-of-sample analysis in order to assess the value implications of corporate hedging.
7.2 Limitations
Shortcomings and limitations in this research are briefly discussed in this paragraph. First, the greatest issue in empirical Corporate Finance research is endogeneity (Roberts & Whited, 2012). Endogeneity is present when there is a correlation between the independent variables and the error term in a regression. This can lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates making the results unreliable. Moreover, Guay and Kothari (2003), Jin and Jorian (2004), Bua et al. (2015), and Magee (2009) raised serious endogeneity concerns regarding firm value and hedging. Linear regressions used in this research assume that all variables in the model are strictly exogenous. An example of endogeneity is reverse causality. For instance, we tested the effect of hedging on firm value. But firm value may also affect the decision to hedge because higher valued firms have more resources and perhaps have more incentivized to use derivatives.
Secondly, research regarding the use of derivative instruments of European firms is restricted due to data availability. Despite the time and effort put in obtaining hedging data, the data is prone to errors from manual collection. This affects the accuracy of the results. Moreover, due to small number of observations, no size threshold has been implemented in the selection of the sample firms for this research. The majority of related papers, however, excluded small firms from their sample due to lower risk exposure and less need for hedging. However, direct costs of insolvency are widely independent on firm size and imply that small firms should have more incentives to hedge. Dolde (1993) finds evidence that large firms use significantly more hedging instruments, but small firms hedge to a greater extent. Although firm size is controlled for in the regression models, including small firms might have driven contaminated the results.
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