Future Challenges of the Mekong River Induced by Extensive Hydroelectric
Projects
An Interdisciplinary Analysis
Final Interdisciplinary Report, Interdisciplinary Project: 30-05-2018 Supervisors: Anneke ter Schure & Andres Verzijl
Authors:
Allard Kooistra: 11035390 Yoram Terleth: 10703276 Sanne Rouing: 11011416
Abstract
This report sets out to examine the impacts of current and future hydroelectric projects in the Mekong river, under a changing climate. Countries along the Mekong river have traditionally relied on the river’s resources to sustain their livelihoods. With increasing industrialisation and heightening living standards, riparian countries aim at securing clean electric energy. Hydropower from the Mekong and its tributaries is an essential component of this transition, with the first hydroelectric dams being built during the mid nineties. By 2020 China alone aims to produce 350 GW of hydropower. However, this development is highly controversial as there have been widespread concerns about the negative environmental and social impacts of these projects. The cumulative impacts of the dams can be disruptive to fisheries, local livelihoods and other important ecosystem services. In addition to a changing regional climate, sustainable management of the river is becoming increasingly complex. By researching the effects of these hydroelectric dams in an interdisciplinary way, we hope to get a more integrated and complete perspective of the future challenges that the region is facing. The research will entail an analysis of the current regional environmental issues posed by the hydroelectric dams, an expectation of changes in local climate and the possible effects of these changes on social relations and infrastructure. The Mekong river and it’s contested hydroelectric development has been a subject of academic studies all over the world. This research will try to add to this abundant literature by providing an interdisciplinary perspective. Ultimately, the goal is to provide suggestions for integrative management and sustainable development of the Mekong river.
Content
1. Introduction 4
2. Theoretical background 6
2.1. Flow 6
2.1.2. Hydraulic Flow Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.1.3. Sediment flow Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.1.4. Social flow 9
2.2. Water governance 10
2.2.1. Deliberative planning 10
2.2.2. Social - ecological impact assessments 11
3. Selected methods and data 12
3.1. Interdisciplinary research 13
4. Analysis 13
4.1.Flows in the Mekong River basin 14
a) Expected Changes in the Monsoonal Driver 14
b) Expected shifts in the flood pulse 14
c) Changes in Baseflow and Droughts 15
d) Changes to Sediment Flows Error! Bookmark not defined.
e) Changes to Ecological Flows 16
4.2. Case study: The Nam Theun 2 17
5. Conclusions and Recommendations 20
6. Discussion 22
Introduction
The Mekong river is the world’s twelfth longest river by length, flowing for over 4,500 kilometres from its source on the Tibetan Plateau at 5,000 metres above sea level to the South China sea (Grumbine & Xu, 2011; Matthews, 2012). Its complex catchment basin covers an area of 795,00 km2 that is divided
over five countries and is home to around 70 million people (MRC, 2005). A majority of this population is considered relatively poor and relies directly or indirectly on the river’s ecosystem services to sustain revenue flows (Ibid.) such as fishing, transport and irrigation as well as basic human welfare needs such as sanitation and the flow of safe drinking water (Matthews, 2012).
The increasing population as well as industrial and agricultural sectors in the Mekong river basin requires greater amounts of resources. (FAO, 2018; MRC, n.d.) To provide for the population, industry and agriculture, the development and implementation of hydroelectric dams on the Mekong river is often regarded as a miracle solution (Matthews, 2012). According to the MRC website, 16 dams are under review or under construction on the main Mekong channel, adding to the 3 already existing dams (Fig.1).
Figure 1: Map showing location of proposed, operational and currently constructed dams along the main channel of the Mekong river, adapted from MRC (2018)
These dams provide electricity for the local population and water during the dry season. (MRC, n.d.) This has increased prosperity and welfare for the countries, but there are concerns of the cost to the local population and environment in the Mekong river delta. (MRC, n.d.; International Rivers, 2018) Several studies have suggested relations between the dam projects and increased flooding, drought and damages to the local ecosystems. This would result from altered natural flow of the river and interception of river sediment. (Yang et al., 2007; Lu & Siew, 2006) These effects are increased by the expected impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect (IPCC, 2014), including: increased intensity of drought and flooding events which could threaten the local population and industry (Hoang et al., 2016; Vastila et al., 2010; Grumbine & Xu, 2011). The resources and welfare that can be gained from the hydro-electric dam project have also increased tensions between the countries along the Mekong river (Matthews, 2012). A dam upstream or downstream can cause problems for another country by increasing the flood risk or siphoning of water during a dry period (Grumbine & Xu, 2011). Additionally, the regions and countries hosting the dams do not always benefit from the produced energy, as electricity is often sold beyond the area by exploitation companies (Molle & Floch, 2008). This could lead to the local populations in those countries suffering as a result either because agricultural and fishing activities are compromised or because populations do not gain sufficient access to clean drinking water and electricity.
Considering the high stakes tied to the hydro-electric dam projects it is imperative that riparian countries along the Mekong river basin cooperate to avoid conflict and damages to their ecosystems, citizens and economies. A consideration between the needs of a growing population and demand for energy and reliable water sources and the possible negative consequences for the surrounding ecosystem and ultimately the local population. As of writing, few studies attempt to combine varying disciplines to come to a unified conclusion, which tends to cause a shortcoming in the understanding of the many interconnected factors in Mekong river basin system.
This report seeks to provide such a wide overview of the issues at stake by filling the gap that exists between disciplines and and branches of research currently undertaken in the area. The effects of both climatic change and hydroelectric development are investigated on a regional scale, and an attempt is made to provide potential solutions to these negative effects through transboundary planning.
A first part will set a theoretical background and framework to support the methods and further findings of the study. This background will be set around a common theme, flow, and investigate how different components of the Mekong system relate to this theme. A second part will outline the
methods used while the third part consists of an analysis and ensuing results. Furthermore, the report discusses its findings and ends on a list of recommendations for further management of development in the Mekong basin.
Theoretical background
Flow
Flow is usually defined as continuous and steady movement along a stream (Oxford Dictionaries, 2018). Defined as such, flow occurs in the natural world as water, sediment or fish move through the landscape. Flow can also characterise purely anthropogenic processes such as when money, information or knowledge are transferred between individuals or groups. Finally, flow can be used to describe movement that results from the interaction between humans and the landscape: hydro electric dams change the flow of the river’s water, sediments and species, can initiate human migration flow, generate electricity and revenue flows and constructing them usually involves flows of knowledge and expertise. A schematic overview of the main aspects of flow along the Mekong is given in figure 2. In the Mekong river basin, flows seem to be the key to approaching the complex challenges posed by the planned construction of 16 hydroelectric dams.
This study uses the concept of flow as a tool to approach the challenges in designing a sustainable management practises system on the Mekong river. The theoretical framework defines and investigates flow within each problem to draw a conceptual map evidencing the complete picture through the interdisciplinary concept of flow
Figure 2: Schematic overview of the essential factors of flow along the Mekong that will be considered in the theoretical setting of this study. Relations between factors are represented by arrows.
Hydraulic Flow: Movement of Water in the River
Hydraulic movement in the Mekong basin is perhaps the most obvious application of the concept of flow. The Mekong river is known for large fluctuations in discharge, with a biannual periodicity following the monsoonal cycle (MRC, 2005; Kingston et al., 2011).
The monsoonal system in south east Asia is caused by the strong and rapid seasonal shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), in turn caused by the Himalayan relief and cold air mass’ strong continentality. As such, monsoonal variation will mainly be a consideration in the hydrology of the lower Mekong, which represents around 86% of the total discharge (Chen et al., 2017).
This strong seasonality is a driving mechanism to many natural processes as well as anthropogenic behavior in areas affected by it (Grumbine & Xu, 2011). As a result, changes in the monsoonal system are likely to have cascading repercussions affecting all components of the Mekong river basin (MRC, 2005; Matthews, 2012). A stronger monsoon might cause more intense flooding during the wet season and droughts during the remainder of the year (Hoang et al., 2016) while a
disruption of the monsoonal pattern might change the region’s hydrology altogether (Xu et al., 2009). Expected changes in the monsoon resulting from global climate change and their effects on the Mekong’s flow are a key part towards understanding the challenges of planning sustainable hydroelectric infrastructure.
Sediment flow: Transport of river sediment within the basin
Sediments are important for the stability of the coast line and are often nutrient rich.(Ly, 1980) South Asia’s river account for a large percentage of the world’s sediment load, further reinforcing their significance to the regional and global ecosystems.(Millman, 1983) Sediment is eroded at higher upstream, often in mountainous areas. This is then eroded further down and delivered as silt, clay or sand at the estuary, where it plays a significant role in resupplying the sand that is lost from coastal erosion. (Ly, 1980; van Rijn, 1993) Hydroelectric power projects can disrupt this natural system preventing the sediment from reaching the estuary or agricultural fields downstream. The sediment is then trapped behind the dams, decreasing their capacity. This trapped sediment load, can increase flood risk and siltation. (Kummu & Varis, 2007) A study of the sediment load of the Three Gorges Dam in China found that in the period after the dam was built the sediment load decreased with up 70% of the
sediment trapped in the reservoir.(Yang, 2006) Similar concerns have been raised relating to the dam projects in the Mekong river basin.( Kummu & Varis, 2007) A study by Kondolf et al. (2014) estimated that, if all scheduled dams were completed up to 96% of the sediment could be trapped in reservoirs after the in channel sediment was is exhausted. This could have significant repercussions for the agricultural fields in the lower mekong river basin, which often rely on the fertile sediment during the seasonal floods. Coastal erosion is also expected to increase with an increase in the trapped sediment load as there is less sediment to resupply the coastal areas. (Ly, 1980)
Social flow: Displacement and social disarticulation of downstream communities along the Mekong river
Large hydroelectric dams have become an important tool for economic development, especially China has been a lead player in transboundary dam building and is involved in 93 dam projects outside of its own borders (Mcdonald, 2009). China portrays this as a win win situation for itself and countries involved. However, there are several social and environmental costs for the host countries that are often not included in cost-benefit analyses (Intralawan et al., 2017). These social impacts include the migration and resettlement of communities near dam sites, alterations in rural economies and employment structure, impacts on infrastructure and housing, effects on spiritual and cultural segments in life and impact on social cohesion and gender relations (Tilt et al., 2009). While these environmental and social costs are carried by the local communities the benefits of the hydroelectric dams are often transported to urban centres and industrial development in addition to the country that implemented the construction of the dam (Richter et al., 2010).
Over the years increased attention has been raised as to the displacement of local communities that are directly situated to the dam constructions (Terminski, 2015). However, as the dams change natural flow patterns in the Mekong river such the flow of water, fish, sediment and nutrients, certain river-dependent production systems that that these natural flows provide are becoming increasingly vulnerable (Molle et al., 2009). Downstream populations that depend on resources and other services that the Mekong river provides under a natural streamflow can experience certain social disarticulations due to rapid changes in the composition of the river and eventually even be forced to migrate. This is not a small number: Sverdrup-Jensen estimated that around 40 million people were dependent on river and flood-plain fisheries in the lower Mekong river in 2002. This number is likely to be much higher today due to the growing population in the area (FAO, 2018). The changing ‘flow’ in migration and social infrastructure of local communities are often not included in the impact assessments that are made to approve dam constructions. By integrating the social and environmental costs of a dam that includes the costs of altered flow streams induced by a certain dam, more legitimate and wholesome impact assessments can be made. This will be further elaborated upon in the following section.
Water governance
The Mekong River, with over 70 million people living within it’s Basin and providing a range of vital ecosystem services like drinking water, fresh water supplies and agricultural irrigation, has always been at the heart of transnational water governance debates (Hirsch et al., 2006; Grumbune et al., 2012). Water governance can be defined here as the way that water is used and managed through social, political and economic structures. Fundamentally, it is about to whom, when and how water is allocated and distributed along different parts of society (Dore et al., 2012). The outcomes of water governance is largely dependent on how stakeholders relate to each other and in what form policies and decisions are made. Inequality between stakeholder along with non-transparent and exclusive planning can lead to policies that generate unsustainable and inappropriate resource governance (Hirsch et al., 2006).
Water governance in the Mekong Region and its planning process are often described as top-down, exclusive and coercive (Hirsch et al., 2006). A more deliberative form of planning on the right scale may improve these issues by promoting local engagement and participation in decision making.
Deliberative planning
To understand the social complexity of hydropower and climate change on water governance in the Mekong Region, politics of deliberation and scale are important concepts to identify. Deliberative planning can be described as a planning process where the discussion between stakeholders take place that is focused on communication and dialogue (Dore & Lebel, 2010). Some important aspects of deliberative engagement are that a lot of time goes into the process of planning itself and that it gives room to different stakeholders to explain their perspectives and through discussion and negotiation possibly defend of adjust them (Lebel et al., 2007). Deliberative planning stimulates local engagement and these deliberative processes can complement or improve the more top-down and conventional planning process in the Mekong region (Dore & Lebel, 2012). This type of engagement can take place at different levels throughout society and is very sensible to scale. The concept of scale refers here to: “... when and where actors cooperate, compete, or conflict as they endeavor to exercise their influence on the present and future of water resources use and further development…” (Dore & Lebel, 2010, p. 62).
Politics of scale influences who participates and in what kind of role in a deliberation process. Lebel et al. (2005, p.14) formulate the importance and interconnectedness of scale a deliberation as follows ‘’...Acknowledging how actors’ interests fit along various spatial, temporal, jurisdictional, and other social scales help make the case for innovative and more inclusive means for bringing multi-level interests to a common forum. Deliberation can provide a check on the extent of shared understanding and key uncertainties…’’. Many water-related services connect along cross-scale interactions (idem). The Mekong River in this case can be scaled at for example the entire river, a river basin, or a certain region or country. Different actors over different scales, ranging from investors, government officials to local fisherman have different interest or follow different discourses related the river. Consideration to deliberation and scale can give guidance to complex challenges between these stakeholders related to for example accountability, water rights and resource allocation. Deliberation in planning can help shape
decision making that is important for the improvement of water governance in the Mekong. For a hydropower project to be approved, impact assessments must be made beforehand to
calculate the costs and benefits of the dam (Kirchherr & Charles, 2016). Identifying local communities that live downstream of a potential hydropower dam site as important stakeholders can lead to more integrative impact assessments. However, to be able to incorporate downstream communities, it is argued that planning should be conducted at the scale of the entire river basin. Unfortunately, due to pressures induced by a changing regional climate, the presence of influential private sectors stakeholders and increased competition over the rivers resources, have expanded geopolitical tensions. This makes cooperation process very difficult.
Social - ecological impact assessments
There is no commonly used framework that is used when examining the impacts of hydropower dams in the Mekong. Often an Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) is made. An EIA assesses the ecological impacts of a policy, project of plan. Environmental impacts of a hydropower were discussed earlier and include among others, changes in hydrological system like water quality or changes in sediment transport. The main critique that the EIA process has been subject to is the limited focus on social impacts (Dendena & Corsi, 2015). A social impact assessment (SIA) can be described as a process that analyses the intended and unintended consequences on the human environment as a consequence of a certain policy, plan or project in addition to any social change processes that are a result of these interventions (Vanclay, 2002). However, the SIA is often seen as subordinate and in addition there is
little consensus about how to properly use a social impact assessment (SIA) as a tool for understanding the impact of hydroelectric dams on communities (Dendena & Corsi, 201; Kirchherr & Charles, 2016). A common framework would be useful to compare and examine these dam interventions in a uniform way and it is argued that Integrating the SIA with EIA can be a tool in achieving this. Socio- environmental impact assessment (SEIA) can provide an integrative perspective that evaluated and acknowledged the social and environmental impacts equally (Dendena & Corsi, 2015). A SEIA can help in achieving development strategies that can enhance the sustainability and suitability of development interventions when constructing large scale hydro electric dams as the environmental considering that the social and environmental consequences of these dams are highly interrelated. This will be demonstrated throughout the case-study.
Selected methods and data
In order to answer the main research question an interdisciplinary approach is used. The reasoning behind this and the interdisciplinary integration method that we have selected will be discussed later. Firstly, a general explanation of our methods, criteria and analysis will be given in which each step that leads to the conclusion will be discussed. Finally, the necessity of an interdisciplinary approach is discussed and how the different disciplines were integrated in this project.
The first step in our research after the research question was defined, was identify the boundaries of the system of the Mekong delta. These boundaries define the area to which the investigation would limit itself. Secondly, the various actors and factors in this system needed to be identified. These are the parties, such as governments, companies, agricultural communities that influence the system. The factors are the non-human variables that influence and are influenced by the actors of the system. These include: (natural) river flow, climate and economic prosperity. Thirdly, the data necessary to answer the research question was gathered. The sources used in the study are both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources include research papers from the Mekong river basin itself as well as similar sites, such as the case study. An example of secondary sources would be bundled research and other literary reviews of the Mekong river delta. Because this study is a literature analysis most of the sources are primary sources, namely the studies of the research site. After the data had been gathered the individual papers were written to answer the research question according to each specific discipline. These were then bundled using integration methods, which will be explained later.
Interdisciplinary research
Researching the implications of hydroelectric dams and climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach as these issues are embedded in both social and environmental science. By using an interdisciplinary approach, data and theories from different disciplines that are relevant to this research can be integrated to advance a comprehensive and holistic understanding of the problem. However, social and environmental sciences often use different methods to conduct research and use different frameworks and concepts to articulate their findings. To be able to synthesise and integrate our findings a common framework/concept is needed that covers both natural and social phenomena. To research the social and environmental impacts and their relationship with regards to climate change and hydroelectric dams on the Mekong river the concept of ‘flow’ continues to be used. By using this concept, information gathered by two different disciplines can be integrated to form more appropriate social-environmental impact assessments. This integration method is called redefinition, which is redefining or modifying multiple concepts in different disciplines to bring out a common meaning. For example, in this study concepts such as river flow, migration of people and fish and energy generated by the dams are all redefined as a type of flow.
Analysis
The analysis section of this paper considers the situation in the Mekong from an interdisciplinary perspective. A first section provides detailed descriptions of the important aspects of the Mekong systems and the changes they undergo. The part aims at giving in depth insight to the application of concepts and problems presented in the theoretical framework as well as their implications for the research question, through the concept of Flow. A second section comprises a Case Study of the Nam Theun 2 dam, which aims at providing a concise insight into the social consequences of infrastructure development in a poorly understood natural system. The case study also highlights the challenges that are comprised in sustainable planning of hydroelectric infrastructure.
Flows in the Mekong River Basin
a) Expected Changes in the Monsoonal Driver
The consensus regarding climate change in south east Asia point to an increased intensity of this monsoonal system. Rising ocean surface temperatures and increased continentality would allow for a longer northward “jump” of the ITCZ, resulting in an intensified airflow land inward during the summer months. This causal mechanism is supported by paleoclimatic proxy data (Dykoski et al., 2005) but some uncertainty remains regarding the amplitude of this intensity increase and possible regulating feedback mechanisms (Turner & Annamalai, 2012). For example, the rapidly warming Himalayas might prove less of a cold air barrier in the future (Xu et al., 2009) which conceptually might mean a less rapid shift of the ITCZ and a slower onset of the south west monsoon. Modelling studies generally agree with an intensification of precipitation variability: under a 2℃-increase scenario, a paper by Kingston et al. (2011) predicts an average yearly precipitation increase of less than 1% while the average for February to April is expected to decrease by up to 50% and the average for May and June to increase by 17%.
b) Expected shifts in the flood pulse
As 86% of the Mekong’s total water volume originates from precipitation in the lower catchment, the lower Mekong discharge is highly variable and inherently linked to precipitation and thus to the monsoonal phase. During the summer months, the river can reach up to three times it’s average discharge, and very low discharges occur during the late winter dry period (Fig.4; Hoang et al., 2016).
Figure 3: Monthly discharge over time at the upper (Chiang Saen) and lower (Kratie) ends of the lower monsoon basin from 1980 to 2001. Measured discharges are plotted in red. Graph used to depict model accuracy in original study (model plotted in blue). Note the large amplitude in discharge with a one-year period. Adapted from Hoang et al. (2016).
With low vertical relief in this area of the river, the water level varies greatly with discharge. This results in annual periods of intense flooding, for which local populations are usually well prepared (Matthews, 2012). An intensification of the monsoon precipitation extremes would however cause a more intense flood pulse and a rising sea level would lower the vertical relief even further, raising strong concern regarding flood risk (Hoang et al., 2016). Several studies use a combination of hydrological and general circulation models to predict the amplitude and the type of changes in the Mekong’s peak flow within the next fifty to a hundred years (Vastila et al, 2010; Kingston et al., 2011; Hoang et al., 2016). Some discrepancies exist between the outputs of these models: single model studies tend to predict an increase in frequency of flooding events, but not a significant increase in maximum water levels (Vastila et al., 2010). The use of a single hydrological model has been criticized however as offers a low level of certainty (Kingston et al., 2011). Two recent studies include several GCM’s as well as hydrological models to attempt at obtaining more reliable results but unfortunately obtain results that are quite contradictory. Hoang et al. (2016) grant specific interest to hydrological extremes and conclude that seasonal peak discharge might increase by as much as 16%, driving up peak water levels and causing severe flooding risks. However, Kingston et al. (2011) expect the magnitude and frequency of extreme water levels to decrease by over 7% under a two degree increase in average temperature scenario. The fact that models disagree could be attributed to differing considerations of the catchment area; conceptually the increase in peak water levels seems the most logical. It is also the most potentially harmful scenario, meaning it might be reasonable to consider when planning for vulnerability mitigation.
c) Changes in Baseflow and Droughts
During the dry winter months, the Mekong river’s discharge rate decreases spectacularly, resulting in a very low baseflow occurring from November to April (Fig.4 – Hoang et al., 2016). Contrary to the uncertainty residing around predictions regarding the future evolution of maximum discharge rates, most modelling studies seem to agree that minimum discharge rates are likely to increase slightly during the next 50 to 80 years (Hoang et al., 2016; Vastila et al., 2010; Kingston et al., 2011). This seems unintuitive since an increased monsoon drives lower winter precipitation rates and should lead to lower discharge in the winter. In this case however, warmer temperatures are expected to cause the snow line to shift upwards along the reaches of the Tibetan Plateau (Xu et al., 2009). This shift would effectively free up more water during the winter months allowing less retention of the little precipitation that does fall and a higher winter discharge (Kingston et al., 2011).
Despite the increase in winter baseflow, rising temperatures are not necessarily positive for human exploitation of ecosystem services in the lower Mekong. As precipitation is not retained as snow, no stock of water is available in the early spring, during which short but severe droughts are likely to become more frequent (Kingston et al., 2011). Furthermore, the agriculture on the floodplains relies on temporal flooding as form of irrigation (Matthews, 2012): a slightly higher base flow doesn’t provide a large advantage, while a less predictable onset of the monsoon brings a consequent disadvantage.
d) Changes to Sediment Flows
Sediment flows in the river system are important for delivery of sediment to the coast and to the sea. Rivers in south asia, such as the Mekong, contribute 70% to the global sediment load (Millman, 1983). Changes in the sediment load of rivers can lead to increased coastal erosion, as was proven by a dam in Ghana (Ly, 1980). A common concern with dams in general and in the Mekong delta specifically, is that an increase in the trapped sediment load could lead to increased coastal erosion and increased flood risk. (Ogston et al., 2000; Kummu & Varis, 2007) The effects of trapped sediment load have been noted in multiple studies in Africa, Asia and Northern-America. (Ogston et al., 2000; Kummu & Varis, 2007; Ly, 1980; Yange et al., 2006) Therefore, the careful study of the regular sediment flow is required to prevent sediment trapping and erosion because of dams.
e) Changes to Ecological Flows
Ecological flows in this situation refer to flows within the ecological system of the Mekong delta that contribute or are a part of the system yet are not part of the major cycles (hydrological, carbon, etc.). For example, the movement of fish from the sea to spawning grounds upstream qualifies as such as flow. Fisheries of pangasius of prawn are often critical to local populations, yet these can be blocked by hydro-electric projects. (Ziv et al., 2012) The consequences for the local population, biodiversity and ecosystem services are significant.(Dugan et al., 2010) The local population could lose their livelihoods and methods of sustaining themselves. (Dugan et al., 2010) Another important ecological flow is the flow of nutrients in the system of the mekong river basin. Studies have pointed out that dams can reduce nutrient transport in the river. (Chai et al., 2009; Humborg et al., 1997) Nutrients from the soil and mountainous areas of the Mekong river can be blocked by the hydroelectric dams. This could damage the agricultural areas further downstream, as well as the important ecological areas along the river.
Case study: The Nam Theun 2
The different ‘flows’ that are discussed above and the relationship between these concepts and the relating social consequences are demonstrated through a case- study of The Nam Theun 2 dam in the Xe Bang Fai river, Lao PDR.
The Nam Theun 2 (NT2) dam, operational since 2010, is the largest hydropower project in Lao PDR in addition to the most contested one (Molle et al., 2012). The NT2 is largely funded by private foreign investments (with large support of the World Bank) and will transport around 95 per cent of its power outputs to Thailand (idem). The NT2 was meant to become the first hydro dam in Lao PDR that guaranteed proper resettlement compensation programs, environmental safeguards and social developments schemes (Baird et al., 2015). These promises were made by the World Bank and the government to rationalize and justify their support of the dam. The government of Lao PDR is portraying the dam project as an economic victory for Lao PDR that will generate $ 1.9 billion in foreign exchange earnings over a period of 25 years (miga.nl). However, these calculations do not include the impacts that the project has opon two river streams in relation to reducing fish catches, affecting water and quality levels and associated social impacts of thousands of local (often minority) people.
NT2 is a trans-basin diversion project that drastically alters two Mekong river streams. Around 150 km of the rivers middle and lower reaches will be altered by increased water flows. As can be seen in the illustration the dam has been built on the Nam Theun that is on the edge of an elevated plateau. After the reservoir is full, the water will be directed to the power station before being transferred to the Xe- bang Fai river indirectly. According to some researches this intervention leads to a doubling of the annual average flow rates in the river (Richter et al., 2010).
Local fishers use different types of fishing practises that rely on the seasonal flood cycle of the river. In addition, livestock, rice cultivation and resources from seasonally flooded forests are also a major source if income, especially in the lower region of the river (Baird et al., 2015). The farming of these product relies on the natural flooding cycle of the river. In addition to doubling the annual flow rate the dam will also regularise the flow rate significantly, disrupting the downstream ecosystems and local livelihoods.
Figure 4: The Nam Theun 2 Project area (Molle, 2012)
According to International Rivers, 110.000 people that are spread over 172 villages have been affected by changes in the rivers ecosystem (Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Project, The Real Cost of a controversial Dam, 2010). In addition, Baird, Schoemaker and Manorom (2015) argued that the NT2 has resulted in significant ecological and social impacts downstream and these have not been appropriately compensated. In their article they compared the state of the XBF basin in 2015 with 2001 and the efforts made to mitigate negative impacts and compensations. Although there were many important discoveries made throughout their research, their main findings can be summarized as follows: Firstly, one of the most acute and visible effects of the NT2 dam were losses in fisheries and related aquatic resources, however no substantive immediate compensation was provided. Furthermore, the NTPC, a commission created by the government to overlook the project stands to gain multiple billion dollars over the lifespan of the NT2, so compensation could easily have been provided. Instead however, the approach was one supported by the World Bank, to maximize the profits for the NTPC at the expense of local communities. Baird et al. (2005, p.1101) closed their conclusion by stating that the ‘Villagers are in effect subsidizing the profits of NTPC through their ongoing livelihood losses’. Despite commitments
made by the WB and the government of Lao PDR, NT2 failed to properly live up to the demands of local communities and environmental organizations (idem). To further clarify the connectedness of the social and environmental consequences the following conceptualization is provided.
Figure 5: Schematic conceptualization of main alteration in the flow of the Mekong river and its impact on river dependent communities.
Lessons from case-study.
When fully integrating downstream social and environmental considerations into new dam projects, more appropriate cost-benefit analysis can be made. One of the most effective dam development strategies for protecting a river’s natural production system and its associated social values is to avoid the construction of dams in inappropriate locations. As was stated earlier the NT2 dams is situated at a location that influences two separate streams. Some researchers suggest that there are 50 locations where this dam could have been placed instead, with one alternative that is just 60 km downstream
from the NT2 location (Richter et al., 2010). These alternatives were however not incorporated in the planning process either because of ignorance, disinterest, or unawareness. In addition, the costs that the NT2 dam imposes on downstream communities where not taken into consideration accordingly, private sector and governments were therefore able to downplay the costs of the NT2 dam and push the construction forward.
The development of these dams requires planning at the scale of the entire basin to avoid construction at improper locations. When considering the entire basin, the interactions between the rivers ecosystem and human dependencies can be considered optimally when planning infrastructure and other forms of economic development for the construction of hydroelectric dams.
Conclusions and Recommendations
The previous sections have aimed at providing a comprehensive description of the diverse challenges faced in the Mekong Basin. Although the implementation of hydroelectric dams, their impact on the landscape and on economic and social factors was often found to be the origin of these challenges, the necessity of development and of electricity generation was also highlighted. The final paragraphs will attempt to provide an overview of the report’s findings and offer some final insights into planning opportunities.
a) Hydroelectric Dams as a Tool for Hydrological Management
As stated in the first section of the analysis, the Mekong river is subject to undergo changes resulting from climatic shifts even before the consideration of anthropogenic interference such as hydroelectric projects. Among these effects of climate change, the literature indicates an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events during the south west monsoon as the main cause of concern because ensuing flood pulses of the Mekong can prove disastrous for the well being of local populations. Although local populations are well versed in mitigating and even taking advantage of these intense variations in water flow, utilising flooding as an irrigation technique and transport flows to take advantage of navigation during high waters. However, the rapid shift that are expected as outlined in
the results section would most likely occur much too rapidly for the local population to cope with. This problem could be remedied through anticipation of increased variation in flow through the construction of infrastructure in strategic locations (Opperman et al., 2009). Examples of infrastructure to be considered are dams, reservoirs, and predestined emergency floodplains. Generally, this study calls for the need of an inclusive zoning plan considering current and future hazard zones, with an integrative plan on how to protect these zones when populated or when providing essential resources. Vietnam is the regional leader in delta flood management and protection (Dang et al., 2012), leading this paper to advise a cooperation and knowledge exchange between countries. It seems Vietnam has an opportunity and even a responsibility to assume a leading role regarding this aspect of the changes in the Mekong basin.
The intensification of droughts during the winter is, as outlined in the analysis, not an immediate problem, but some studies warn it might become a challenge in the future. Again, infrastructure could be a key remedy to possible water shortages. Due to the Monsoonal climate, reservoirs would provide means to store water during the wet season to bridge potential shortages during prolonged droughts.
The Mekong’s water flow is subject to a changing baseline which has little to do with the change in the basin and more with global climatic shifts. However, this changing baseline does need to be accounted for when planning for development along the river. This study finds that anticipation of the changes in flow and strategic development of infrastructure might be the key to mitigating negative effects of this change. Careful consideration and study needs to be conducted to ensure maximum positive effect and minimal negative impact of these mitigations. This study highlights the opportunity for Vietnam to assume a leading role in this development.
b) Sustainable Planning as a remedy to social conflict
Large hydropower dams are often not as beneficial as they are portrayed to be considering the costs of these dams are often downplayed. The losses that communities experience when relocating due to forced displacement or environmental degradations are often not included when developing impact assessments. However, hydropower dams are, especially for countries that lack natural resources such as Lao PDR, a valuable export commodity and a necessary development option. The incorporation of the effects of altered flow streams on downstream communities, can be used as a tool for assessing when and where the construction of a hydropower dam is an acceptable option or not. As was made in clear in the case-study, finding the right location for a dam where its infrastructure causes the least harm to environmental and relating social systems is very important though a large challenge. If environmental
issues in the region worsen due to climate change and hydro dams, water resource conflict can emerge where countries that are dependent on the rivers ecosystem services are actively competing for water usage. To avoid these conflicts sustainable management is needed where hydropower infrastructure does not deteriorate the local ecosystem services though still leaving countries able to improve their economic progress. By promoting a more deliberative planning process, where downstream communities are perceived as important stakeholder and transparency and inclusiveness are promoted, the challenges induced by hydroelectric dams can be mitigated. Proper integrated social and environmental impact assessment that can show the true cost of a dam and ultimately lead to comprehensive option assessments.
Discussion
Challenges on the Mekong River are consequent and diverse, but solutions can be attained through, as advised for in this paper, smart planning of infrastructure. The previous section of this paper advised for several spatial planning strategies as a remedy both hydrological as well as social issues. It also stressed the importance of integrative impact assessment prior to any development. However, such development strategies are in line with advanced structures of Environmental impact assessment (EIA), which generally tend to occur in well developed countries (Hannah, 2016). Whether it is realistic to expect such structures from developing countries such as Lao PDR, Cambodia or even Viet Nam, who generally tend to have more pressing concerns, remains unanswered. Clear efforts have been made such as with the establishment of the Mekong River Commission, and extensive reports on environmental concerns that were established (MRC, 2005). However, the previously discussed lack of decisive power given to the MRC reflects a rather weak EIA structure (Hannah, 2016). Furthermore, scientific research in the Mekong Basin, despite it’s high density, is generally initiated by foreign organisms rather than commissioned by local regulations or governmental agencies (Matthews, 2012). The call of this paper for integrated and sustainable planning might prove unachievable due to the lack of a regulating and enforcing structure in the Mekong’s riparian countries, which is much more difficult to implement than a dam.
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