Pieter van Osch – s1430726
LEIDEN UNIVERSITY | SUPERVISOR: DR. BRENDAN CARROLL / SECOND READER: DR. RUTH PRINS
Safety only a
perception?
WHETHER CRIME AFFECTS SAFETY PERCEPTION AND THE
INFLUENCE OF POLICY IN THE DUTCH PROVINCES?
MASTER PUBLIC ADMINSTRATION – INTERNATIONAL
ADMINISTRATION
Abstract
The quantitative research is focused on the safety perception and the crime rates as well as the investments made by provinces in their safety and public order policies.
On the basis of the hypotheses, the research shows three main results. Firstly, crime is strongly correlated to safety perception. As crime increases so does fear and as a result the safety perception is reduced. Secondly, the research shows us that the provinces that invest more in crime reducing policies have higher crime, giving the impression that government spending in order to reduce crime is counter effective. This is not the necessarily the case. The crime rates in these areas are most likely to warrant the higher government spending, however the higher spending is likely not to have significantly reduced the crime rates either. The study is limited in this way as it only shows a snap shot of the crime and other statistics and does not allow for us to examine the changes over time. The safety perception is also not positively affected by more government spending and safety perception scores are higher in the areas where the safety and public order budget are lower.
Although the results of the research is interesting further research is required where the effects of policy over time in combination with the other variables, in addition with more in-depth view of what policies are used would be helpful to determine the effects as well as allow for best practice
strategies to emerge which would allow better policy making over time and achieving better results with the funds available.
Preface
This paper is a quantitative study about the safety perception and the factors influencing it. In particular the effect crime rates have on safety perception as well as what the safety and public order policies are capable of changing and what can be done to improve upon crime and safety perception.
I chose to write about safety perception and crime because of the changing environment and perceptions that can be noticed in society. The increasingly violent nature of our surroundings in addition to the “verhuftering” noticed in the Dutch state where more and more violence and examples of anti-social behaviour become apparent. Whether it is the death of a football referee kicked to death by supporters, or the disrespect shown by teenagers during the annual two minutes of silence on the 4th of May held in the Netherlands to remember and show our respect and gratitude to those who gave their lives for our freedom during the Second World War. Hopefully the research done can be of benefit and included in the extensive body of work that exists to improve upon the safety in our modern and changing milieu and society.
I would like to thank my thesis supervisor Mr. B. Carroll who deserve special credit for helping me define and work towards a research study I can be proud of. As well as those who stood beside me during this time and have waited patiently for me to finish the work required in particular my parents and most importantly Silvia Koelman.
Table of Content
Abstract ... 1
Preface ... 2
1.0 Introduction ... 5
1.1 Reason for research ... 5
1.2 Background ... 6
1.3 Introduction of the problem and the objectives ... 6
1.4 overview thesis ... 7
2.0 Literature review ... 8
2.1 Safety perceptions and crime ... 8
2.1.1 Perceptions of crime and actual crime rates in combination with physical health and or physical activity and illnesses ... 9
2.1.2 Perception of crime and actual crime rates according to countries and municipalities10 2.1.3 Perceptions of crime and actual crime rates and the effects of the media ... 11
2.2 Policy in relation to crime and safety perception ... 12
2.3 The effects of policy spending on crime ... 16
2.4 What affects Safety perception? ... 18
2.3.1 Personal factors ... 19
2.3.2 Situational factors... 20
2.3.3 General societal context ... 23
2.3.4 Media influences ... 24
2.5 Crime by geographical location ... 24
2.6 Conclusion ... 25 3.0 Theory ... 28 3.1 Hypotheses ... 28 4.0 Research methods ... 30 4.1 Population ... 30 4.1.1 Crime rates ... 31 4.1.2 Safety perception ... 31
4.1.3 Public order and safety budget ... 32
4.1.4 Analysis research group ... 33
4.2 Research design ... 33
4.3 Justification research: societal and theoretical relevance ... 35
4.4 Style of the research ... 35
4.5 Measurement instruments ... 36
5.0 Results ... 38
5.1 Criminal incidents and Safety perception ... 38
5.1.1 Criminal incidents ... 39
5.1.2 Safety perception data ... 39
5.1.3 Correlation coefficient data... 41
5.1.4 Regression analysis with the dependant variable: Safety perception ... 42
5.2 Public order and safety budget spending and criminal incidents ... 44
5.2.1 Public order and safety budget spending ... 45
5.2.2 Correlation coefficient data... 46
5.2.3 Regression analysis with the dependant variable: Crime Rate ... 46
5.3 Public order and safety budget spending and Safety Perception ... 48
5.3.1 Correlation coefficient data... 49
5.3.2 Regression analysis with the dependant variable: Safety perception ... 50
5.4 Threats to the validity ... 52
5.5 Summary... 53
6.0 Conclusion ... 55
6.1 The central objective ... 55
6.2 Coupling results to the hypotheses ... 55
6.2.1 Hypothesis 1 - The lower the incidents of crime or the crime rate the higher the perceived safety is. ... 57
6.2.2 Hypothesis 2 - The greater the perceived importance placed on safety policies determined by the budget on safety related issues the lower the crime rate. ... 57
6.2.3 Hypothesis 3 - The higher the safety related budget set by the province is the higher the safety perception is. ... 58
6.2.4 Sub Questions ... 59
6.2.5 Contribution for the Social Sciences... 60
6.3 Recommendations... 61
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Reason for research
In recent times the phrase “verhuftering van de Nedelandse staat” has become more and more frequent. It roughly translates to insolent behaviour in the Dutch state. Public opinion has become that antisocial behaviour is the norm. Many examples exist that show the decline in moral fibre and the lack of respect many have for people such as teachers, train conductors and many more. There have recently been many situations where the misconduct of civilians has run out of control, whether it is the abuse of civil servants and others such as police officers, paramedics, firefighters, parking attendants and railway personnel.
There are numerous examples in the media showing the “verhuftering”. Most recently a video clip has surfaced in which a group of young men disrupt the national memorial service on the 4th of May in which the nation pays its respect and remembers those that have died during the Second World War and to whom we owe our freedom. This again sparked the debate in the Netherlands; the “verhuftering” undermines the well-being and even the safety of us all.
The “verhuftering” of the Dutch state and the decline in moral fibre naturally affects both the crime rates and perception of safety. The crimes committed against, for example police officers or
paramedics are ever increasing and the public has become increasingly aware of this. When there is no respect for these authority figures this naturally decreases the public’s safety perception as well as the safety perception of these and other authority figures. Moreover an increase of crime towards authority figures also contributes to the amount of criminal incidents and thus to the crime rate as a whole.
This has led to the subject of the thesis, in which an attempt is made to determine whether a
relationship exists between the safety perception and crime rates and what the influence of policy is. From a public administration standpoint this is very interesting and a lot can be gained, there is still a lot we can learn about these issues and how they relate to each other and the more we learn the better society and policy makers are able to effectively cope with both crime and safety perception.
1.2 Background
Looking at the Dutch society and as mentioned before the concern of “verhuftering” has become very apparent. In a society where the media more increasingly shows us examples of anti-social behaviour it is understandable that there are many that perceive themselves increasingly less safe. Even though crime has decreased in the Netherlands it is conceivable that many do not feel this way. Hence this paper has been written, to determine how safe people feel and whether this relates to the actual level of crime in their neighbourhood. With “verhuftering” on our minds and the public outrage towards those who act which no concern to the Dutch laws and norms, it is socially justified to determine what the effects are on the population as a whole.
1.3 Introduction of the problem and the objectives
The objective of the research is to see whether a relationship exists between the safety perception and crime rates. Crime is assumed to be a major factor contributing to the safety perception. Therefore the assumption can be made that when crime rates are high people feel less safe. Although crime is considered a contributing factor this does not necessary mean that the people in Zuid Holland feel less safe than those in Zeeland only because of the higher crime rates.
In addition it is important to establish what the influence is of policy is on both the crime and safety perception. The most effective way of determining the effectiveness of government spending and the policies is by comparing the funds made available for the safety and public order budget in the provinces. By comparing the crime rates and safety perception scores to the funds made available to combat crime we can learn which provinces are most effective as well as economical at providing a safe environment where the people also feel safe. This will allow for provinces to learn from each other and cooperate to reduce crime rates through-out the Netherlands by implementing policies that have been proven to be both crime reducing as well as cost effective.
The results of the research and the insight extended by the literature review will hopefully allow us to gain a good insight in and better understanding of the subject matter as well as finding ways to address the problems that currently exist. In addition the aim is to find solutions that allow better policy making resulting in lower crime rates and improved safety perception scores. Although a lot of the research still needs to be conducted at this point the lack of a relationship between crime and
safety perception would be surprising, a direct and positive causal relationship is what is expected, perhaps with feedback loops as the variables are projected to reinforce each other.
1.4 overview thesis
Finally a short overview of the thesis will be given. The first chapter has been an introduction to the subject matter, where the reason for the research is given as well as a the context of the research and the problem. From here on out Chapter 2, in the literature review an attempt is made to look at the existing literature and determine what other authors have found. Comparing all the findings from relevant sources will allow us to gain a better understanding of the subject matter and
effectively proceed with the thesis and the research. Chapter 3 is theory chapter in which I can make use of all the information gained in chapter 2 to formulate possible hypotheses and questions as well as give the explain some of the research terminology and other theoretical concepts that will allow the reader to fully comprehend the remainder of the thesis. Chapter 4 the actual research methods are discussed and where the initial data will become clear. The results of the research are
immediately shown in chapter 5. Chapter 6 is the conclusion and where all the results are
summarised and compared to the initial hypotheses. This is where recommendations can be made based on the results of the research as well as the lessons learned from the existing literature.
The main recommendations gained from the research are that the evidence based approach is a must for crime prevention policy making, however the effectiveness of policies’ is not sufficient and issues such as the cost-effectiveness, long term goals requiring long term policies’ should be
incorporated as well. Also it is vital to remain innovative and keep-up with crime and not to exclusively rely on old (however proven) strategies.
For policy makers the situational sphere is where the most effective policies’ can be achieved affecting both crime and safety perception, also the tackling of high impact crimes is very important in particular to improve upon the safety perceptions. Lastly policy makers should acknowledge that crime prevention is not solely achieved in the safety and public order sphere but that all levels and sectors of government can affect both crime and safety perception and that fully co-ordinated strategies are the ideal polices.
2.0 Literature review
This section aims to determine whether a general consensus exists in the academic world regarding the relationship between crime and safety perception and how policy can affect these variables and if so what results were concluded. First an examination will take place looking at the relationship between crime and the perception of safety. This will be followed by looking at policy regarding crime and policy’s effects on safety perception, policy spending in particular. Also an examination will be conducted looking at safety perception in more detail and what affects safety perception. Lastly I wish to look at the differences between rural areas and more metropolitan areas regarding crime to see whether crime is more apparent in various regions.
2.1 Safety perceptions and crime
The first investigated relationship is the relationship between actual crime and safety perception. It is important to identify whether crime affects our safety perception, but it is also important to know whether our perceptions of crime are factual and whether we judge it correctly. If not, why a misbalance exists.
When reviewing the existing literature three main streams regarding crime rates and perception of crime were detected. Notably the correlation of physical health and/or physical activity and illness was addressed as well as studies performed by countries and municipalities and not in the least assessments made in relation to the media
The data gained by reviewing the literature will clarify if there is a consensus on the issue whether crime rates and safety perception are related and if so if there are other aspects that influence the data or affect the relationship. It is important to understand the relationships between crime and safety perceptions as this allows us to explain and understand why these variables behave in the way they do, this will also allow us to determine that and potentially what factors play a role when the variables behave in a unexpected manner. Also the understanding of how policy affects these variables is important as this allows policy makers to implement more effective policies
2.1.1 Perceptions of crime and actual crime rates in combination with physical
health and or physical activity and illnesses
Perceptions of crime and actual crime rates are often studied in combination with physical health/activity and illnesses. This may seem as not very relevant to the study, yet lessons can be learned from the data on the subject of crime rates and perceptions of crime, this is particularly relevant as people with physical health/activity and illnesses can be seen as more vulnerable and thus the results may be more apparent than in other studies. For example the study “The
independent associations of recorded crime and perceived safety with physical health in a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of men and women in New Zealand” by Gina S Lovasi, Charlene E Goh, Amber L Pearson, Gregory Breetzke. They have examined the associations between
neighbourhood crime rates, perceived neighbourhood safety and the physical health of the
residents. When testing whether it was safe to walk in their neighbourhoods at night the crime rate influenced the safety perception. For example “for each additional crime per 100 000 residents
adults were 1.9% more likely to perceive their neighbourhood as unsafe” (Lovasi et al, 2014) and with
crimes involving weapons the safety was affected to a higher degree showing that 12.9% of the people would report their neighbourhood as unsafe. Although this is the case the authors also mentioned that the perceived safety affected the residents’ physical health and that this was independent from the actual crime rates.
Looking at the “The association of perceived and objectively measured crime with physical activity: a cross-sectional analysis.” By McGinn A.P., Evenson K.R., Herring A.H., Huston S.L., Rodriguez D.A. (2008) shows us that both the perception of crime as well as actual crime affect the level of physical activity, therefore a careful conclusion can be made that the two variables as related.
Kelly R Evenson, Richard Block, Ana V Diez Roux, Aileen P McGinn, Fang Wen, Daniel A Rodríguez, (2012) explored the association of perceived safety and police-recorded crime measures with physical activity. They recorded the following results “Perceived and police-recorded measures had
independent associations with walking and both should be considered in assessing the impact of neighbourhood crime on physical activity”. (Kelly R. Evenson et al, 2012) However according to this
and various other studies, the relationship between the objective and the perceived safety are minimal. The explanation of why this may be the case is that they both might affect different dimensions of the physical environment. But most importantly this study and many more determine that police recorded crime is weakly correlated to perceived safety.
Kirtland K.A., Porter D.E., Addy C.L., Neet M.J., Williams J.E., Sharpe P.A., Neff L.J., Kimsey C.D. Jr, Ainsworth B.E., (2003) most significantly note that the low agreement between objective and perceived crime is most likely due to the fact that people perceive and judge their environments on their own outlook, expectations and desires, based on culture and many other aspects. This can explain the differences between the respondents. Other authors also determine that more research is required on what it is that affects the perceived safety. (Lovasi et al, 2014)
To conclude the findings of these papers whilst looking at actual crime rates and perceived
crime/safety perception rates in relation to health and physical activity no conclusive deductions can be made. However, it can be assumed that actual crime and perceived crime are weakly correlated but that there are also many more factors, other than actual crime rates, that influence the
perceived safety. One of which is the media as discussed below.
2.1.2 Perception of crime and actual crime rates according to countries and
municipalities
Countries and municipalities are also very interested in the statistics regarding the relationship between crime rates and perception of safety. For example the Crime Survey for England and Wales and the police both monitor the crime rates in the UK since 1981 and 2002 respectively. Both show that crime is at its lowest point ever, however the public perception is that crime has increased, 69% of the respondents believed crime had gone up. This clearly does not depict reality, of the
respondent that believe their neighbourhoods to be unsafe the majority consider their
neighbourhood as such due to mostly either: antisocial behaviour (52%), experience of crime (12%) and bad street conditions (9%). (Crime Survey for England and Wales, 2013)
The Australian government also has done research on safety perceptions and crime. The article presents the perceptions of safety and crime of the inhabitants of South Australia. It continues to examine the perceptions of safety in relation to the actual instance of crime in South Australia. The results show that for example, although the prevalence of personal crime has increased in South Australia from 4.5% in 1998 to 5% in 2005 it is still low compared to Australia as a whole.
Nonetheless, the South Australians believe to be less safe than people in other areas of the nation while in fact it is one of the safest regions. When compared to other states, the southern Australians also feel less safe in their homes and believe that a lot of crime takes place in their neighbourhoods. Again, reality does support this apprehension when in fact the opposite is the case. Even though South Australia does have the highest crime reporting rate (crimes are more likely to be reported and
registered in South Australia) the victimisation of assault and sexual abuse statistics indicate that South Australia’s crime rates are on average lower than those compared to the rest of the nation. (FEATURE ARTICLE: CRIME AND SAFETY, 2009)
Canada is another country that has investigated perception of safety in relation to crime. The results of their research are also interesting. They show that although the crime occurrence and the severity of the crimes (according to Brennan and Dauvergne, 2011) had decreased in Canada the majority of the Canadians did not share that perception. A major part of the Canadian public (62%) believe that crime and crime rate has remained unchanged, while 26% of the respondents believe them to have increased. Only 6% of the surveyed persons thought crime to have decreased in their
neighbourhoods. (Canadians' perceptions of personal safety and crime, 2009)
The research by the countries shows that crime rates and the perception of safety are not related. The research shown above tells us that while crime has decreased or is lower compared to other states the perceptions of safety do not confirm this and a large number of people feel less safe and believe that crime has increased. This is not an intuitive conclusion, but the results from this research demonstrate that actual crime does not affect the safety perception.
2.1.3 Perceptions of crime and actual crime rates and the effects of the media
Besides the research related to physical activity or studies carried out by countries and municipalities important and extensive research is also based on the effects the media has on perceptions of crime and actual crime rates. For instance the book The Safe City: Safety and Urban Development in European Cities by Leo van den Berg cites on the discrepancy between actual safety and perceived safety. The author refers to the city of Glasgow where crime has recently gone down and safety has improved, yet, the perceived safety has not increased accordingly. He continues to show that the views of the residents are out of line with their neighbourhoods. People tend to feel safer in their own suburban neighbourhood than in the city centre whilst actual crime is more prevalent in the suburbs and the city centre being much safer. The writer then mentions that this discrepancy is partly created by the media; bad news sells. His conclusion is shared and expanded upon by several other authors also referenced to below. (The Safe City: Safety and Urban Development in European Cities by Leo van den Berg, 2006)
(J F Sheley, C D Ashkins, 1981) have researched the public view on violent crimes and in particular the prevalence of violent crime. The results concluded that public’s view was skewed and had more in
common with the media’s representation of crime rather than the actual police statistics. The media and television misrepresent the crime prevalence as it makes use of news events from large
catchment area for their local news segments. However the area from which they draw their news is inconsistent with the general public’s view of neither the local area nor the immediate
neighbourhood. In addition it exaggerates on the frequency of crime.
The article “Violence: Comparing Reporting and Reality” by Sara Tiegreen, Elana Newman, 2009) agree with this and continue to argue that the reports of crime don’t match actual crime rates and that exposure to the disproportionate news coverage is associated to higher levels of fear and perceptions of personal risk.
Lastly in the yearly (“Nationale Misdaad Meter”, 2015) (national crime survey) done by the NOS and AD (the Dutch national public news agency and a Dutch reputable newspaper) the issue of perceived violence and actual violence was also covered. The nationally recorded crime in the Netherlands has decreased however the public was under the impression that the crime had increased. From the persons interviewed 45% thought that crime had increased, 46% felt that crime has remained the same and only 6 % believed that crime had decreased. Although the majority of the public thought that the crime rates in the Netherlands had decreased or remained unchanged, many still believe this that crime has increased. The main reasons given why people believe to be less safe is due to the mediathat in part spend more time reporting on motor gangs and other issues rather than reporting the actual crime statistics. Another aspect was that crime sells, which is often used by politicians misreporting crime and vowing to improve the crime rates. Lastly safety perception can also be influenced by issues that are not recorded such as anti-social behaviour.
To conclude, media is also an important factor that has a large impact on the safety perceptions of the public. This also shows that although the actual crime rates have an influence the media carries more weight and thus the public is under the influence that crime is more prevalent than it is in reality.
2.2 Policy in relation to crime and safety perception
It is also important to look at the policy and whether and to what degree it affects both crime and safety and our perceptions. Various sources have been consulted to give an initial insight in this and these sources are discussed below.
The evidence based crime prevention also discussed in this section shows us a lot about what the effects can be of policy and how good policy should be implemented based on both cost effective and proven tactics. The remainder of this chapter will look at the existing literature to give a better insight to the effects policy can have on both actual and perceived crime rates as well as our safety perceptions because of this. And lastly, how policy should be decided on and implemented. This is most gives a good insight for the recommendations section of the paper.
An interesting methodology that has been gaining traction is the evidence based approach. This approach is discussed in “Evidence based crime prevention” by Brandon Welsh and David Farrington. Their paper looks at crime prevention policies based on evidence and the authors show that in many sectors a significant diversity of policies, including crime prevention policies, are being considered that have been proven to be unsuccessful. This is in part due to other considerations such as defence spending or environmental protection policies which also battle for the scarce public resources. Furthermore political considerations are of importance such as politicians wanting to appear as having a hard stance on crime. The evidence based approach would allow for the best policies to be implemented and the ineffective policies to be discontinued. This is an approach that has been proven successful and has gaining support in the medical and educational sectors and has proven to be successful and would make policy in crime prevention more effective.
This paper cannot accurately determine which specific policies are successful or not. Nevertheless the evidence based approach should be used to compare the provinces to each other to determine which provinces are best performing in this field and have the most successful policies implemented, in turn these policies can be shared with the other provinces. It also clearly shows that policy is an important crime prevention tool and that weeding out of policies that have been determined as ineffective and costly and to only support the policies that have been most effective.
The paper by Civitas “Fighting Crime: Are Public Policies Working? Online Briefing” tells the importance of policy and again the importance of what policy is used. It briefly indicates that although an increase in prisons has helped reduce crime in England and Wales, the governments of these regions have implemented proven to be ineffective programs and focussed their attention to prison alternatives. Examples of the implemented programmes in the paper are: An Offending Behaviour Programme which included items such as anger management and thinking skills courses. They were found not to reduce crime, nor did they reduce the reconviction rates, but did end up costing over £25m.
Another example is the Intensive Supervision and Surveillance Programme (ISSP). Irrespective that similar programmes had been attempted in the US and were deemed ineffective the government in the UK did not consider this evidence to be of importance and opted to implement the programme nonetheless. The programme had a cost of over £45m from 2001 – 2005 whereby 85% of the participants were re-convicted within 6 months’ time and the programme turned out more costly and less effective than other crime reducing strategies.
There is evidence that policy makers can use to the evidence based approach to make good decisions for example the Authors advice to “Scrap Offending Behaviour Programmes based on
cognitive-behavioural therapy and transfer the money to basic and vocational education. There is good
evidence that vocational and work-related skills are beneficial and a significant increase in investment would be justified.” (Civitas, 2005)
This paper clearly shows that policy is very important to crime rates and emphasises the importance of good policy. The authors again, but not only illustrate that the evidence based approach should be used when deciding on policies, they additionally indicate that evidence gained from abroad is of importance too and should not be dismissed.
The Paper by Elizabeth K. Drake, Steve Aos and Marna G. Miller “Evidence-Based Public Policy Options to Reduce Crime and Criminal Justice Costs: Implications in Washington State” focusses on the evidence based crime prevention and evidence based decision making in the State of
Washington. Washington State public policy makers have a great deal of experience and success with evidence based decision making as they started using it in the 1990. The evidence based approach is used to see what can be done to reduce crime as there are not enough prison places available and the building of new prisons is very costly. To prevent the costly prisons other more cost beneficial crime prevention programs were found using the evidence based approach however to ensure that not merely the effectiveness is considered but the cost effectiveness of the programs as well this paper also reviews the economics of the potential programs. The authors mention that “Policy makers in Washington have also learned that estimating the economics of an evidence-based
program is as important as determining whether or not a program works. A program may be found to reduce crime, but its costs may exceed benefits. Legislators routinely face budget constraints and, as a result, an economic analysis of options can improve decisions on how to allocate scarce resources.”
This is an important aspect of the evidence based approach and should also be considered when used to determine what programs have been successful in the provinces in the Netherlands. Particularly since, the inhabitants vary greatly and the most cost-beneficial programmes would be most effective in order to maximize the effect with the limited budgets. Thereto especially important, because the effectiveness of the policy is compared to the budget which was made available. The amount spent on the safety and public order budget is the measurement tool by which the policy is compared. Therefore the use of the evidence based approach and encompassing cost effectiveness as well as overall value are important.
The Cost of Getting Tough on Crime: Isn’t Prevention the Policy Answer? By Lynn Fournier-Ruggles, is another contribution to the body of work discussed. The author tries to show that crime prevention can be both more effective as well as cost effective. She also has 3 findings that are particularly relevant to the paper: 1. Crime prevention is a long term goal and therefore long term activities and long term investments are required. 2. The government acts in a responsive manner rather than implementing a well-thought-out long term policy. 3. Tough-on-crime polices are not effective in reducing crime. Even though crime is not affected by this policy the public however is under the impression that their safety has improved.
The author also pays special attention to safety perception and looks at the indicators for safety perception. She, shows that “rates of violent (e.g., homicide) and property-related crime (e.g., theft
of wallets, credit cards or jewellery) and changes in those rates over time are a basic reflection of a sense of security and safety in Canadian society”. (Lynn Fournier-Ruggles, 2011) Other indicators that
have been determined in the paper to also affect the perceptions of safety and security are the general feelings of personal safety and how capable and effective they believe the local law enforcements is.
Because of the high general sense of security in Canada and the decrease in violent as well as property crime, the paper states that “these lower crime rates correspond to an overall sense of
well-being” (Lynn Fournier-Ruggles, 2011)
Another interesting aspect shown by the study that in part can be attributed to the media (discussed above) is the sensationalist and manipulative headlines which are also affecting the populations’ safety perceptions. Although there was no real reason to feel less safe these headlines, mostly owed to the election campaigns, caused people to feel less safe.
These findings are especially interesting. It shows that long term planning is important to the long term success and that there is no quick fix. It demonstrates that the provinces should keep this in mind as well as not immediately dismiss a crime prevention activity as ineffective as it might take more time to show its effectiveness. The directive for the provinces is that although they might want to appear tough and responsive on crime it has little or no effect. They need to carefully plan policy and consider the long-term programs without dismissing them directly when not immediately successful. The safety perception is on the contrary affected by the tough-on-crime approaches. It confirms that there is a discrepancy between actual safety and perceived safety, and that safety perception is also affected by policy. In addition the paper also shows that lower crime rates correlate to a higher sense of well-being and safety. Here again it, clearly shows that crime and effective crime policies also affect the safety perception. There are also several indicators that show that violent and property crimes are important to safety perception and therefore policies targeting these can help improve safety perception.
2.3 The effects of policy spending on crime
There are many policies in place that reduce crime. These areas are not always specifically targeted to reduce crime rates. This section will look at how government spending can reduce crime in various sectors as well as the public order and safety sector.
The paper by Lars Lindvall “Does Public Spending on Youths Affect Crime Rates?” is worth reading. Here the author tries to determine whether public spending affects crime rates whereby he focuses on youths. Lindvall remarks on a number of relevant matters one of which is that there is a
statistically relevant effect on crime due to policy spending and that there also is a trade-off in spending. For example; spending in one area might cut crime rates in that particular category but at the same time intensify the rate from a different type of crime.
To illustrate this further; there is evidence showing a relationship between municipality spending in the form of leisure on upper secondary school youths and crime rates. Although the author does mention that the data is still not sufficient to draw further conclusions and suggests that further research is imperative to gain a better insight on how spending can effect crime rates in the youth area.
Striking at the Roots of Crime: The Impact of Social Welfare Spending on Crime during the Great Depression by Ryan S. Johnson, Shawn Kantor, Price V. Fishback is a paper that looks back at the
period of the great depression (the 1930’s). During this period many thought that because of the hard times people would turn to crime to get by. Even though this seems a logical assumption Mr. Franklin Roosevelt however believed that the relief efforts during that time would offset the crime as many people’s survival was assured by the provided relief spending. The writers’ believe that that Roosevelt was correct and the 10% increase in relief spending did not only keep crime rates constant but even reduced the crime rates by 1.5%. The cause for this is believed to be that provided social insurance and the population’s lack of free time is responsible for the decline in crime.
The ELECTIONANALYSIS: Reducing Crime: More Police, More Prisons or More Pay is written for the English elections by LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) tells us that the spending on police, in particular on their resources, reduces crime but that there is a significant risk that the crime will rise again if this spending is halted as it will reduce the police numbers and overall deployment time of police officers.
RETHINKING THE BLUES: HOW WE POLICE IN THE U.S. AND AT WHAT COST by JUSTICE POLICY INSTITUTE shows us that the increased funding in the police budgets since 1993 has only provided limited result in terms of increased public safety. The study from the institute concludes that the scarce resources should be spent on well thought out, long term initiatives with long term effects that have a proven track record of success. The study further argues and solidifies the position of evidence based approach as a highly regarded policy-making procedure
The Crime Reducing Effect of Education by Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie and Sunčica Vujić also demonstrates that some ways of public spending are a valid method of reducing crime. In this particular case the spending goes towards education rather than policing/the safety and public order budget. It indicates that this specific spending has a positive effect even in areas beyond the
targeted policy and gives alternative strategies to reduce crime. The paper shows that improving education results in “significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce
crime” (Steven Machin et al, 2010)
The review EFFECT OF POLICE EXPENDITURES ON CRIME RATES: SOME EVIDENCE by THOMAS F. POGUE shows that policy spending in the safety and public order effects are limited. He claims that “increases in police spending and manpower have not prevented increases in the measured rate of
criminal activity” (Thomas F. Pogue, 1975) and concludes that according to his study combating
crime through the public order and safety spending or by increasing the crime punishments might not be the best methods. He believes that reducing poverty and combating racial discrimination are
better suited methods to regulate crime. The author does not argue that public spending is not effective however he believes that the funds should be appropriated differently to increase the effects.
The overall tendency of this section is that public spending is a favourable strategy to reduce crime rates. Where and how the funds should be distributed is not clear and a lot of different authors show different and even sometimes somewhat conflicting results. It is therefore difficult to give a waterproof conclusion based on these results, however the overall inclination is that public spending is beneficial in order to reduce crime rates. Whether this is achieved through municipal spending, relief efforts, education, poverty prevention schemes or even spending towards the public order and safety budget are all mentioned as a effective methods of combating crime (although this is also disputed; Thomas F. Pogue’s paper was written in 1975 and the results may no longer be valid to the degree of that period). Therefore I conclude that crime reduction strategies should be attempted in various sectors of governance and not merely only in the justice/police sector while at the same time the public order and safety spending and budget will also be imperative to actively combat crime.
2.4 What affects Safety perception?
It is also important to consider at what affects safety perception not only looking at how and whether crime and policy affect the safety perception. A better understanding was perceived on how policy can affect crime rates, and how it should be implemented to reduce crime and, to a degree, also safety perception. However, a more complete understanding on how to view and deal with safety perception is of essence in order to, for example, to understand how and what policies also affect safety perception and gain a good understanding of how these variables relate to each other. The CCV (the Centre for Crime-prevention and Safety in the Netherlands) has also looked at safety perception and how it is formed. The following aspects have been indented as important to the safety perception creation.
It is important for policy makers to identify the factors that influence safety perception, to capitalise on this, and implement policies that take these factors into consideration. There are three main levels at which the safety perception can be affected: at personal, situational and at general social level.
The following representation has been made to clearly illustrate how the factors are organized. The institutional, social, criminal and physical environments naturally fall under the situational level.
These are also the factors on which policy makers can have the greatest effect. Although the personal and the social factors also greatly influence safety perception is difficult to influence through policy.
Figure 1: factors influencing safety perception (source: Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid (CVV), 2015)
It is of importance to look at the factors more closely; below I will examine the various levels and factors according to the CCV’s data.
2.3.1 Personal factors
According to the CVV Personal factors have been found to be predominantly accountable for the differences in the perception of safety of the public. The aspects which were considered to affect the perception of safety on a personal level are:
Age, gender and ethnicity Sexual orientation
Education and economic status
Mental and physical health and thus experienced vulnerability How one copes with uncertainty or stress
Lifestyle (including media consumption) Attitude/world view
As earlier indicated it is next to impossible to affect the personal factors, with or without policy. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid (CVV), 2015)
2.3.2 Situational factors
As also mentioned this is the level where the greatest influence can be exercised by policy makers. As shown above the areas that that fall under the situational level are the institutional, social, criminal and physical environment. These will be discussed in more detail hereafter.
2.3.2.a Institutional environment
The institutional environment is the first situational factor discussed and consists of organizations and actors within them. Both these organizations as well as the actors have a shared responsibility for the safety. Examples of these organizations can be the police, municipal, housing associations and welfare corporations. But also the management (the actors) of for instance schools and corporations are also part of the institutional environment as their actions or failures-to-act greatly affect the perception of safety too.
To determine whether and how the institutional parties and their actions can affect the perceptions of safety one needs to reflect on questions like:
Do people feel that attention is paid to the problems that affect the safety?
How do the organizations react? Do they actively address the issues or are they more restrained?
Does is look as if the organizations seriously target the biggest threats in a conscientious and effective manner as well as in close coordination with other organizations?
Are bureaucratic protocols that lead toward practical improvements in place and if so are they followed carried out as well as lead to practical improvements?
How do the organizations communicate with the public and the media? Does this lead to a feeling of insecurity and uncertainty?
These are all very important aspects which can be influenced by policy. It is vital to note that the actions of both the organizations/institutions and of the actors within can affect the safety
enhanced as well as a weakened safety perception. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid (CVV), 2015)
2.3.2.b Social environment
When perceiving the social environment we know that this encompasses a large variety of aspects such as the social climate, the demographics including the composition of the population and lastly also the social quality of a neighbourhood. The social quality and demographics have for instance been found to have a strong effect on the perception as well as the objective safety in
neighbourhoods in Amsterdam. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid (CVV), 2015)
Another key indicator is the composition of the population. An example of which is that residents of neighbourhoods with multi ethnical backgrounds generally feel less safe compared to those residents residing in homogeneous neighbourhoods. In particular a fast change in the composition of the neighbourhood can affect the safety perception even more.
Lastly, the social climate is another critical aspect. What is the social climate like? The levels of social cohesion, mutual awareness and the relationships in a neighbourhood are key elements to the perception of safety. Whether people feel seen, recognized, left out or even feel at home in their neighbourhood are important indicators that influence the safety perception. The extent to which the neighbourhood feels a collective efficacy and their ability to tackle the problems they face collectively is critical to the safety perception.
One must also understand that the social interactions with other inhabitants of a residential area give meaning to the events that can potentially affect the safety perception in their neighbourhood as well as the actions that are taken to deal with these events. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid (CVV), 2015)
2.3.2.c Criminal environment
To what degree is there crime in a particular environment and to what degree is the population confronted with this? Either by being a victim, a witness or even by just hearing it through the grapevine. The most influential crime is the one that gives people the impression that the social, moral and physical order of their environment is in danger. These crimes are known as “high impact” crimes and they disproportionately affect the perception of safety. Offences such as burglary,
muggings and robbery are examples of high impact crime that on average impact the perception of safety more severely.
“Je voelt je heel onveilig en heel alleen…” translated as “You feel very unsafe and very alone” is an article by Marnix Eysink Smeets, Krista Schram, Eric Bervoets and Jasper Bik (2013) that confirms these views. They say that the police still struggle to effectively provide the right assistance to harassments and other forms of nuisance. This is because finding the right approach is difficult as well as the problem being underestimated. The National Expert Group Security Perceptions and Local affairs in the Netherlands have done a survey that reveals that because of the difficulty the police have in addressing these particular issues the perpetrators feel untouchable and are hence dubbed “the untouchables”.
The general public is not particularly affected by the untouchables. They feel no less insecure nor is there safety perception affected much. The problem however is the general public’s sense of justice is diminished and the affected citizens feel abandoned to the degree that they lose their confidence in the government. This has consequently led to an imbalance in the law. The general public feel that small offences and violations such as parking tickets caused by ‘good’ citizens are being dealt with more harshly while the violators of more impactful and severe crimes are getting away with them.
Although the Dutch government has attempted this policy makers cannot appeal to the public and point out their own responsibilities. The current situation is too problematic whereby the confidence in the government and the institutions has diminished too far for that to be successful. Only when the public acknowledges that the authorities are again able to effectively govern will the willingness to become more active return.
This implies the urgency of finding good and effective methods of tackling crime and in particularly the high impact crimes as they do not only affect the victims but the neighbourhood as a whole. Moreover, in turn and again it reduces the safety perception as a whole and in addition not only the safety perception is being diminished, but also influences a weakening perception of other
2.3.2.d Physical environment
The physical environment is another major aspect that affects the peoples safety perception. The design, facilities, arrangement, as well as the management of the physical environment are all important facets that can affect the safety perception. When creating a physical environment where people feel safe it should aim to be clear, manageable, predictable and attractive.
Furthermore, the environment should be easily accessible to the right persons and must also be inaccessible to the “wrong” people. The environment design should support the desired character of an entire neighbourhood to create a setting where people feel at home, where they can find their way, where the desired social interaction is available and any unwanted social interaction is
reduced. Most importantly; a pleasant environment is most assistant to safety perception.
The management of an area is also essential. The environment needs to be maintained and should remain clean. Degradation, pollution and lack of maintenance affect the environment negatively and will cause the safety perceptions to worsen. This is confirmed in the “Broken windows theory” by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling first introduced in an article titled Broken Windows in 1982. The broken windows can be seen as metaphor for disorder within neighbourhoods. The theory proposes that disorder and incivility within a community to subsequent occurrences of serious crime (both the physical as the social environment). Wilson and Kelling posit that crime stems from disorder and that when order is maintained crime is likely to reduce. They believe disorder causes crime which in turn also causes disorder and that it is a vicious circle that feeds of itself and is very difficult to stop. To illustrate this further, they theorise that the disorder causes the perception of safety to be tarnished, leading to people leaving the area as it is deemed unsafe. This then again leads to a weakened social control in the neighbourhood allowing crime to surface whilst causing more disorder in the neighbourhood. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid, 2015)
2.3.3 General societal context
When looking at safety perception out of the General societal context we can see that the safety fears we have as a society also reflect much deeper societal concerns. There are many questions and anxieties, such as social security, that feed these concerns, but they reflect a much deeper, more existential sense of (in-)security.
Our society has become a much “harder” society where the accelerated developments, increased individualization, higher demands (people wondering whether they can keep up) but also reduced certainties and the emergence of the so-called risk society all affect the safety perception. Unnoticed our feelings, thoughts and fears have merged and although we are under the impression that we are discussing crime and disorder the subject encompasses much more. In addition these societal concerns not only affect our thoughts and feelings they also reinforce them.
The Economic crisis is also a factor and since autumn 2008 our perception of safety is influenced by the economic crisis too. Although, like the increasing individualization, this is a different kind of insecurity it also significantly affects our safety perception. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid, 2015)
2.3.4 Media influences
A relation between media and perception of safety is often demonstrated and discussed in more detail above, however it is also mentioned as one of the main influences by the CCV. The most interesting aspect of the media, as a factor that contributes to our safety perception, is that it is difficult to differentiate between crimes that take place in your environment and those that have taken place far from where one lives. Although the effect of the media is limited in the residential areas it does frighten us more when we leave our neighbourhood as we feel less safe than necessary. It also affects the views people have of their society as a whole and lastly it gives us the impression that unusual/more violent crimes are much frequent as the media is most likely to report on these “interesting” occurrences. (Centrum voor Criminaliteitspreventie en Veiligheid, 2015)
2.5 Crime by geographical location
It is also important to see whether there is a crime is affected by geographical location. In other words is crime likely to be more apparent or higher in urban areas or rural areas, this might explain possible differences that might become visible between the more urbanized provinces or those with large cities and the more rural provinces. Therefore the question this section tries to answer is, is crime more frequent in rural or urban areas?
There is quite some research available for this the general consensus found tells us crime is more frequent in urban areas. For example; according to the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR)
shows that crime is more frequent in urban areas. For example the following shows that crime in metropolitan areas and cities outside metropolitan areas the violent are higher compared to suburban areas. “The FBI reports the 2012 rate of violent crime known to law enforcement within
metropolitan areas was 409.4 per 100,000 persons. The rate of violent crime per 100,000 persons in cities outside metropolitan areas was 380.4, and for non-metropolitan counties it was 177.0” (Federal
Bureau of Investigation, 2013)
But also property crimes that fall under the high impact crimes that greatly affect the safety perception as seen above is also more frequent in the more urban areas as can be seen in the table below.
Figure 2: Property crime rates known to law enforcement by geographical area 2012 (Source : victimsofcrime.org, 2015)
2.6 Conclusion
On the basis of the above shown literature we can carefully conclude that a discrepancy exists between actual crime and perceived crime. Various reasons for this have been given in section 2.1 in particular due to the media. Although there are studies that have detected weak correlations there are also studies that have found the perceived safety to be misrepresenting the actual crime statistics. This is not what was expected. Although there is a lot of evidence that crime does not affect safety perception, it is not conclusive and most likely a weak correlation between the two
variables must exist. The extent of which might be difficult to determine due to the other factors influencing safety perception.
When looking at section 2.2 we can also determine that policy does affect crime and there is also evidence that safety perception is affected by policy as well. The evidence based view tells us that policy is not always implemented optimally and informs us how to make good policy decisions. We also learn that a perceived hard stance of crime usually backfires and does not affect crime rates. However the safety perception is increased due to the stance. Another important point is to decide on policy not only on its merits but also on the cost factor. This is what allows for the best results within the given budget and therefore attain the best results possible. The evidence based method is also very easily included in the decision-making process and can simply be incorporated by the provinces as the cost and the effects of the proposed projects can be tested and compared to each other to determine the best practice methods based on costs. Nevertheless, examples from
municipalities and other countries should also be included as options to acquire a more complete set of policy proposals to choose from. It should be noted that not all policies immediately bear fruits and might prove itself over time. It is therefore vital to allow these initiatives enough time before dismissing them too early as ineffective initiatives.
Safety perception is also shown to be affected by both crime and policy and it shows us that crime policies focused on violent and property crimes are in particularly effective initiatives when one attempts to improve the safety perception. Also sensational headlines and hard campaigning can affect the safety perception negatively even when there is no ‘actual’ reason to feel less safe.
Section 2.3 complements these results and shows that policy spending is an effective method of reducing crime rates. It does also show that spending should not only be limited to the
justice/policing sectors but that spending towards sectors like education also have a positive effect on the crime rates. This section demonstrates that for many sectors governance can help reduce the crime rates, but it also shows that policing and, for example, deployment times improve crime rates.
Safety perception is affected by many factors. The literature illustrates that personal factors play a large role as do the general societal context and the media. Sadly these are difficult to influence with policy proposals and in particular crime combating proposals. As these aspects are difficult to
influence perhaps features such as the “merging of concerns “ described in the General Societal Context (2.3.3) can be taken into consideration and possibly decisions to improve the effectiveness of policy proposals can be made keeping this in mind.
The situational influences do allow us to change perception with policy. The areas in which one can do so are by improving the institutional, social, criminal and physical environments. When looking at these areas we can make policy that allows us to change and adjust the environments to serve the population to the fullest and in return also improve the safety perception. When implementing policies it is important to look at these aspects and perhaps also incorporate them together with other policies to increase the effectiveness.
The literature review has given a lot of insight in how policy, crime and safety perception relate to each other. It allows us to not only adopt educated assumptions and determine valid and informed hypotheses but additionally to continue the research in order to further increase our understanding of the results when conducting the actual research.
3.0 Theory
3.1 Hypotheses
Three hypotheses have been formed. These will all be tested further into the report. The aim is that the answers to the three hypotheses shown below will answer the research question. The
hypotheses have been formed by the data gained from the literature review above.
Hypothesis 1: The lower the incidents of crime or the crime rate the higher the perceived safety is. Hypothesis 2: The greater the perceived importance placed on safety policies determined by the budget on safety related issues the lower the crime rate is.
Hypothesis 3: The higher the safety related budget set by the province is the higher the safety perception is.
To explain the reasoning of the three shown hypotheses a short clarification will be give below to illustrate why and how these have been made:
The first hypothesis states that the people will feel safer in areas where the crime rate is lower or where the occurrence of criminal activity is lower. Looking at the research that will be conducted it is conceivable to assume that the criminality affects the perceived safety negatively. I argue that people feel safer in areas with less crime. Although the literature review shows there to be a discrepancy between the variables, nevertheless I expect a weak correlation.
The second hypothesis is a little less clear. I make the assumption that people are safer/there is less crime in areas where policy makers place a higher importance on crime prevention policies. The method of determining the importance placed on preventing crime is done by comparing the budget made available towards public order and safety. Therefore the areas where the public order and safety budget is higher crime is lower.
Therefore if a province has deemed its safety policy to be of higher importance by investing more capital in the public order and safety budget, one might also expect that the criminality is lower because of this. The literature confirms this as well and shows that a relationship between policy and crime exists and that spending in this area and others is beneficial for crime reduction and thus I
assume that the higher the public order and safety budget the more crime prevention action can take place and consequently I expect that crime rates will drop.
The third and last hypothesis hinges on the validity of the first two hypotheses to be true, I assume that the people feel safer in areas where there is less crime (hypothesis 1) and that crime is lower in areas where more is invested in prevention of crime (hypothesis 2). When these two are combined the third hypothesis becomes apparent. I assume that the provinces where there is a higher budget made available for public order and safety related issues (the deemed impotence placed on public order and safety issues by public officials) the safest the population feels.
Therefore it is assumed that the province’s population will feel safer when the public order and safety spending is higher, as a higher budget is likely to result in better crime control thus ensuring the public’s safety. The literature also supports that safety perception is affected by policy, although a hard stance on crime does not affect the crime rate the perception of safety is however improved. Safety perception is also shown to be affected by both crime and policy and it shows us that crime policies focused on violent and property crimes are in particularly effective initiatives when one attempts to improve the safety perception. Having taken this into account it is feasible that policies like these and those aimed towards situational environment and that focusing on these areas can lead to a better crime prevention environment and a higher safety perception. Therefore I believe that a strong case can be made declaring that a higher budget for safety policies can also lead to the an improved safety perception among the population.
Sub questions
During the literature many questions were answered, however with the knowledge gained other questions became apparent. Although these questions do not necessarily answer the research questions they are of value to the research and can help us understand the relationships between the variables.
What other aspects besides possibly crime rates influence the safety perception? Do the big cities influence the results gained?
4.0 Research methods
4.1 Population
The sample group is the Netherlands and the twelve provinces of the Netherlands in particular. They are very diverse and a great deal can be learned by reviewing them. Therefore a short view is given on the provinces and what data can be extracted. This section will aim to look at the most
interesting aspects of the provinces. In addition safety perception, crime rates and safety policy budget will be looked at individually. Table 1 below shows all the crime, safety perception and policy budget statistics for the 12 provinces in the Netherlands. The raw data from which the tables and other figures throughout the rest of the thesis have been derived from the CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics). The areas I looked at where: “(In)security Perception per region”, “Municipal Accounts; income and expenditure by region and by size” and “Encountered offenses per region” these are referenced in the chapter 7.
Table 1: Provinces compared to the research variables
Criminal incidents (per 100 inhabitants)
% of the
inhabitants that have felt unsafe
Neighbourhood Safety perception grade
Public order and Safety budget per inhabitant Groningen 34 34,9 7,3 12 Friesland 28 28,1 7,5 20 Drenthe 26 28,8 7,3 16 Overijssel 30 33,3 7,3 17 Flevoland 38 41,6 6,9 35 Gelderland 31 35 7,2 22 Utrecht 39 40,2 7,1 35 Noord-Holland 46 37,5 7,1 53 Zuid-Holland 37 39,1 6,9 46 Zeeland 25 31,2 7,4 23 Noord-Brabant 35 36,9 7,1 42 Limburg 34 39,4 7 43
4.1.1 Crime rates
This is recorded by the number of criminal incidents (not recorded crime as not everybody wants to declare crime). This figure is per 100 inhabitants, i.e. the mean is 33.58, which means that 33.58 out of 100 persons have experienced a criminal incident.
Table 2: Crime rate statistics
Mean: 33,58333333 standard deviation: 6,022055423 Medium: 34 Minimum: 25 Maximum: 46 Range: 21
When looking at the data in Table 2 we can see that there are significant differences between the provinces. The range is very large (almost half of the maximum province). Noord Holland is shown as the province which endured the most criminal incidents (due in part to Amsterdam, the most criminal city in the Netherlands) followed by the province Utrecht. Zeeland and Drenthe are on the other side of the spectrum with only 25 and 26 crimes encountered. The remainder of the provinces are not that particular and stay close to the average.
4.1.2 Safety perception
Below the safety perception data is shown. In this case both the percentage of the people that sometimes or often feel unsafe as well as the safety grade (out of 10) most people would give their neighbourhood.
Table 3: Safety perception statistics
% that has felt unsafe Safety perception grade
Mean: 35,5 7,175 standard deviation: 4,441744129 0,191288 Medium: 35,95 7,15 Minimum: 28,1 6,9 Maximum: 41,6 7,5 Range: 13,5 0,6
First the “% that has felt unsafe” column will be discussed followed by the “safety perception grade” column.
The people in Flevoland and Utrecht feel the least safe, with 41.6% and 40.2% of the inhabitants claiming to have felt unsafe respectively. The inhabitants of Friesland and Drenthe feel the safest, only 28.1% and 28.8% having felt unsafe respectively. The data otherwise is tightly packed together with no real extremes, the range and standard deviation confirms this with relatively low scores.
The figures are also very similar with just over half a point difference in the range which is 0.6 and a standard deviation of 0.19. The province with the highest grade for safety perception is Friesland with a 7.5/10. The provinces with the lowest grade are Flevoland and Zuid Holland.
The data gained by both the safety perception variables does not contradict each other greatly. They both identify Friesland as feeling very safe while Flevoland in both cases is a province where people feel less safe. In addition also both the data sets are packed closely together with no real outliers and relatively low ranges as well as standard deviations.
4.1.3 Public order and safety budget
The province’s public order and safety budget consists of the provision of policing in addition to that of the regional police forces. In addition they also contribute financially to policing of the regional police forces for special projects, city guards, crime prevention, animals protection and various other safety related aspects. The figures shown below is what they spend in Euro’s per inhabitant of the province.
Table 4: Policy spending statistics Mean: 30,33333333 standard deviation: 13,64706651 Medium: 29 Minimum: 12 Maximum: 53 Range: 41
When looking at the data shown above we can conclude that it is reasonably diverse with a range of 41. Noord and Zuid Holland both have the largest public order and safety budgets with 53 and 46 Euro per inhabitant respectively. While in Groningen and Drenthe the budget is only twelve and sixteen Euro’s respectively. It can be assumed that this is in part due to Amsterdam and Rotterdam located in both provinces. They are the two largest cities in the Netherlands and preserving public order and safety can be more difficult in the larger cities. The other provinces float around in the large range however but not clustered around the mean, this is also illustrated by the large standard deviation.
4.1.4 Analysis research group
The data discussed above should have become clearer. The aim is to make the reader more
comfortable with the data that is going to be used in the further research as well as becoming more comfortable with the provinces of the research group. Each aspect is discussed in regard to the research group and the specific variables used, crime rates, safety perception and the public order and safety budget (for policy initiatives). This was just a brief overview for more in depth
information. Table “A” shows all the data for the corresponding provinces and can be consulted for further information.
4.2 Research design
The research will consist out of quantitative data. The findings are part of my quantitative research where I compare the statistics on the crime rates, safety perception and safety policy budget with each other and try to determine whether causal relationships exist that connect these variables. Hypotheses will have been constructed at this point and the research will be aimed towards answering the questions asked by the research questions as well as aimed to prove or disprove the
