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Table of content
- Introduction 03
- Digitalization of the European economy 07
2.1 Introduction 07
2.2 Digitalization of Economy 07
2.3 Megatrends 11
2.4 Conclusion 16
2.5 Europe 2020 17
- Case Study: Autonomous Transportation 20
3.1 Introduction 20
3.2 European transport in general 20
3.3 Autonomous transport 23
3.4 Stakeholders 27
3.5 Potential & challenges 33
3.6 EU transport 37
3.7 Data, Graphs and Analysis 39
- Policy Reactions 50 4.1 Introduction 50 4.2 Policy reactions 51 4.3 Conclusion 60 - Analysis 61 5.1 Analysis 61 5.2 SWOT 70 - Conclusion 73 - References 78 Word count: 29.874
Supervisor: dhr. dr. P. (Peter) Rodenburg
2 economy in the world? The case of digitalization of transport.
Introduction
In 2000 the European Union adopted the Lisbon Strategy, an ambitious action and
development plan to lift the European economy to new heights. At that time, the European Union seemed to enter its prosperous era, unemployment rates were low while economic growth was relatively high. This resulted in an ambitious goal: The European Union had to become the most competitive and dynamic (knowledge based) economy in the world. Concretely, this would mean an employment rate of at least 70% and an economic growth rate of 3%, which formed the economic pillar of the strategy. Preferably, this economic growth had to be sustainable, which formed the ecologic pillar. In addition, there was an social pillar which strived to improve the European welfare model. There was special attention for research and development (R&D). The aim of this strategy was to spend at least 3% of the gross domestic product of every member state on research and development. Two thirds of the required investments could come from the private (business) sector while one third could come from the government. The goals of the ambitious development plan were not met at the end of the decade In 2010. Therefore the European Union adopted a new strategy for the current decade under the name of ‘’Europe 2020’’ with even sharper targets. At the end of the current decade the employment rate in the European Union has to be 75% for citizens between the ages of 20 and 64 while 3% of the European Union’s Gross Domestic Product has to be invested in research and development. Added are goals on climate change and energy which are formulated around the 20/20/20 goals: Greenhouse emissions have to be 20% lower than the levels of 1990. A total of 20% of energy has to come from renewables. There has to be a 20% increase in energy efficiency. All the targets are mutually reinforcing and interrelated but all aimed to make the European Union the most competitive economy in the world.1
The goal of becoming the most competitive economy in the world has become even more challenging and dynamic with the unprecedented introduction of new technologies which has led to the digitalization of economy. New technology has proven to be one of the most important sources of prosperity and welfare. It has made daily life much more convenient, easier and enjoyable with several new applications and handy devices. Europeans are living in an era where they have to deal with breakthrough technology that penetrates the capillaries of the European societies. Today Information Technology is leading the digitalization of economy. Technological breakthroughs, like the developments we are seeing now, are accompanied by disruption. Existing ratios are changing on
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the path to a new reality in which the new ‘robots’ get a place in the economy as well as society and even daily personal life. This requires adjustments and can possibly lead to uncertainties. Technology is rapidly changing our economies and societies. Supercomputers, autonomous cars and a wide range of practical robots and innovative tech products were developed in only just a couple years this decade. New technology shows it’s potential in a unpredictable and incalculable real world, which will impact Europe’s place on the world stage. The European Union will be faced with tremendous challenges to unlock the full potential of the digitalized economy in order to become the most competitive economy in the world. This will be a difficult task because its main competitors like China and the United States perform extremely well on the subject of technology as well as the capability to invest in research and development.
The academic debate on the position of the European Union is at its core an debate on the construction and integration of the EU. This debate has a mainly political and economic focus.2 The Neofunctionalism of Ernst B. Haas is the most famous European Integration theory. It explains the process of regional integration by how three factors interact: the growing economic
interdependence between nations, the supra national market rules that replace the national regulatory frameworks and the organizational capacity to resolve disputes and build international legal frameworks.3 This theory has been updated by Sandholtz in European Integration and Supranational Governance (1998)4, The Institutionalization of Europe (2001)5 and by Alec Stone Sweet in Neo-functionalism and Supranational Governance.6 The alternative for Neofunctionalism is Intergovernmentalism by Andrew Moravcsik and Frank Schimme!fennig, it rejects the neofuctionalist mechanisms of integration. The central idea of Intergovernmentalism is that the power in
international organizations is possessed by the different member states and the decisions are made unanimously. 7 The academic discussion on the integration of the European Union can be divided into three categories: Integration of Europe defined by the international relationships of the different European states. Integration explained with the building of European institutions. However this thesis fits in a third category which explains European integration by focusing on the multiple societal processes caused by technology and are argued to be the hidden engine of European integration as described by Thomas J. Misa & Johan Schot in Technology and the hidden integration of Europe
2 Rosamond, Ben (2000). Theories of European integration. New York: St. Martin's Press.
3 Haas, Ernst B., ed. (2004) [1958]. The uniting of Europe: political, social, and economic forces, 1950–1957 (3rd ed.). Notre Dame, Indiana: University of Notre Dame Pres
4 Sandholtz, Wayne; Stone Sweet, Alec, eds. (1998). European integration and supranational governance. Oxford New York: Oxford University Press
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Sandholtz, Wayne; Stone Sweet, Alec; Fligstein, Neil, eds. (2001). The institutionalization of Europe. Oxford New York: Oxford University Press
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Stone Sweet, Alec (6 April 2010). "Neofunctionalism and Supranational Governance". SSRN. Social Science Research Network 7
Moravcsik, Andrew (1993). "Preferences and power in the European Community: A liberal intergovernmentalist approach". Journal of Common Market Studies.
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(2006)8 When you use the ‘’lens’’ of technology, European integration becomes an outcome of a process that is linked to infrastructures as well as the circulation of systems, artefacts and
knowledge. These (technological) processes flagged, shaped and carried the sense of Europeanness. It brings out the positive tensions in Europe. This can be described as the hidden integration. It is not a grand political project with a set agenda. Instead it is a process that started in the 20th century and carries on today to further integrated the nations of Europe. Thesis research on the technological revolution and especially autonomous transport shows that technology and globalization are further integrating the European Union. Information Technology has made the production networks easier and cheaper, all possible because digital networks like the Internet have made it cost effective. This rise of technology has been the fundamental factor of economic globalization, without these technological advancements globalization on itself would not have been possible. However this rise of technology and the following accelerated globalization have resulted in the demand for a stronger role for the European Union. 9 Given the fact that, the integration of Europe defined international relationships or the building of European institutions has received much more academic attention then the third category which explains European integration by technology, this thesis will contribute to the latter. This thesis specifically focuses on how the European Union deals with this, (accelerated) integration of Europe by technology, as a stakeholder, especially in relation to other stakeholders and its personal ambitions.
This research will be focused around a case study on the digitalization of transportation in order to discover qualitative insights that, in all probability, will also be directly applicable on other (European) policy areas. All in order to understand the power of the European Union as a
stakeholder on various national and international stages. The focus lies upon the digitalization of transport because it is assumed that the key insights on this specific subject apply most likely on the other important current and future challenges. The digitalization of transport is expected to be the most disruptive technology in history, no other technology will change European daily lives more than the digitalization of transport. This development is expected to change the lives of many more people at a much faster rate than any other development in human history. Understanding the role of the European Union as a stakeholder on this subject will therefore be essential for understanding the position of the European Union in the future, as it will face many more of these enormous challenges. The research specifically tries to answer the following thesis: Does the European Union have enough power as a stakeholder to become the most competitive economy in the world? The case of digitalization of transport.
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Misa, T, & Schot J, (2006) ‘’ Technology and the hidden integration of Europe ‘’ , An international journal volume 21 2006. 9 Limonard, B, (2015) ‘’ De Europese Unie als wereldmacht ‘’ Instituut Clingendael
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In the first chapter, ‘’Digitalization of economy’’, this thesis will focus on how technology is digitalizing the European economy and how this impacts society and everyday life. In addition, nine megatrends are described that will lead the way in the digitalization of economy. The second chapter, ‘’Case Study: Autonomous Transportation’’, will be a case study on autonomous transport. This case study will zoom in on the digitalization of transport and more specifically at autonomous transport, The case study will take a look at European transport in general, with a detailed
description of autonomous transport, a description of stakeholders involved in the development of autonomous transport and digitalization of transport, the potential and challenges for the
technological development. The case study will have graphs and charts on European transportation which will include analysis on the impact of the introduction of autonomous transport on the European transportation sector. The case study is followed by the chapter ‘’policy reactions’’ which will describe the vision of stakeholders involved in the digitalization of transport as well as their position in relation to other stakeholders. The chapter ‘’Analysis’’ will analyze the position of the European Union as a stakeholder in the digitalization of transport as a basis to understand the role and position of the European Union in future (technological) challenges. The thesis will end with a conclusion including key insights found in the thesis research initiated by the thesis question and will underline the link between the challenges presented by the digitalization of transport and the future position of the European Union as a stakeholder.
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Digitalization of European economy
2.1 New technology has proven to be one of the most important sources of prosperity and welfare. In this chapter this thesis will take a look at how technology is digitalizing the European economy and how this impacts society and everyday life. In addition nine megatrends are described that will lead the way in the digitalization of economy.
2.2 Technology has made daily life much more convenient, easier and enjoyable with several new applications and handy devices. Furthermore, it has always been a stimulator of productivity and employment opportunities. When we take a look at our history we are offered numerous examples of technological breakthroughs that led to economic prosperity and new welfare. Especially in the field of powerful machinery, which made the limited physical power of deer and man completely unnecessary. Several breakthroughs have made life - working life in particular - a lot more enjoyable. The wind- and water mill already helped the mechanization of production in the Middle Ages and eventually proved to be the instigator for the early industrialization of for example the Netherlands. The same goes for the steam engine, that was introduced in the 1700s, the introduction of the dynamo for generating electricity or the combustion engine.10 Other
breakthroughs, like for example the invention of the printing press by Johannes Guttenberg in 1450 has given a large group of citizens access to education, books, religion and theater in their own language and thereby the ability to be critical to their leaders and government.11 Taking the Netherlands for example, the introduction of this breakthrough technology led to major growth in international trade and a large numbers of well-educated citizens that were highly productive and were able to improve administrative processes that made it possible to develop solid institutions that stand till today.
Currently, we are living in an era where we have to deal with breakthrough technology that penetrates the capillaries of our societies. Information Technology has led this revolution, that started in the beginning of the Seventies and has led to automation and rationalization, just as it did in the Thirties. Technological breakthroughs, like the developments we are seeing now, are
accompanied by disruption. Existing ratios are changing on the path to a new reality in which the new ‘robots’ get a place in the economy as well as society and even daily personal life. This requires
10 Von Tunzelman, N, ‘’The British Industrialization to 1860’’ Oxford University Press 1978 11 Dittmar, J, ‘’Information technology and economic change’’ Theorem, Londen 2011 pp2-5
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adjustments and can possibly lead to uncertainties.12 Technology is rapidly changing our economies and societies. Questions like ‘’which job would you like when you are older?” are becoming difficult to answer in certainty for many European citizens because it will be a job that does not exist yet. Nobody could have predicted 20 years ago that on this day there is an ‘’app’’ to get access to everything you want and that you can save hundreds of them on a mobile device. This change in employment is a trademark of technological advancement: a hundred years ago, more than 35% of American workers were employed on a farm, today this is less than 2% and they produce an exponentially increasing amount of food. However, this disruption took one hundred years. Technological innovations of today have the same effect but on a much shorter time span. The company of Kodak is an good example; it used to employ over 145.000 people in its best days but a couple years ago they had to file bankruptcy. This was only a few months before technology
company Facebook bought an 18 month old photo sharing company called Instagram priced at more than 1 billion dollars. This young company had 30 million users at the time while only having 13 people employees. The case of Kodak and Instagram is an example of the disruptive power and pace of modern technology.13
To indicate the speed and impact of technological progress, Moore’s law is often mentioned. This ‘’law’’ is an observation that states that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit is doubled through technological process approximately every 2 years. It is often mentioned for the speed and impact of technological progress due to the fact that if the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit increases, the computer chip becomes faster. A faster chip often means the ability to improve technology with the same rate. This prediction was made by Gorden Moore in 1965 who was one the founders of chip manufacturer Intel.14 He is known as a generous
philanthropist and has earned the American Presidential Medal of Freedom. Moore was the first to recognize the possibilities of computer chips. In 1965 he predicted that integrated circuits would lead to technological highlights like the personal computer but also autonomous cars and personal
portable communication equipment which we know today as the smartphone.15 The same
observation proved to be true for other factors which are related to technological progress like: the
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Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014. pp12
13 Nazarian, Angella, ‘’ The technology revolution and its role in our lives’’, Huffington Post 2015 14
Moore, Gordon E. (1965). "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" (PDF). Electronics Magazine. p. 4. Retrieved 2017-05 15
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supercomputer speed (flash), energy efficiency (flash/watt) and cost efficiency hard drives (gigabytes/dollar).16
Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil has described the possibilities of technology with an ancient myth about the inventor of the game of chess. An inventor, living in a small town of what we call India nowadays, had developed the game of chess and presented it to the emperor of his region. The emperor loved the game and asked the inventor what he wanted in return. He asked for some rice to feed his family and he wanted to use to chess board to decide how much rice he would receive. He suggested to put a rice grain on the first field of the board, two at the second field and four and the third field eventually it would lead to a chessboard where the next field would have twice as much rice grain as the one before. It seemed humble to the emperor. What the emperor missed was that with 63 fields and doubles you would end up with an infinite number of rice grains, even if you start with a single number. That would mean more rice then the volume of the Mount Everest. After 34 fields the inventor had received 4 billion rice grains which is equal to one complete field of rice. However, when they reached the other side of the chess board the reward really became in the big numbers.17 It eventually led to the decapitation of the inventor, but this story give us a better understanding why the progress of technological improvement goes and feels so
incredibly fasts nowadays.
Examples of science fiction are becoming real like space travel, autonomous cars and robots. This is because the exponential and steady growth, as described in Moore’s law, has reached a point where we have entered a new age of automation. If we follow the story about the inventor and the emperor: we have reached to other side of the chess board.18 Innovations like supercomputers, autonomous cars, automatically generated news items, flexible cheap factory robots and affordable consumer equipment like smartphones all date from after 2006. Many other major technological developments have significantly changed products or created complete new ones. One of the reasons why we see radical development of new technology and products, is that digital equipment has become as cheap enough, as well as fast enough to go into production. Two decades ago ,humanity did not reach that point yet.19
16 Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. ‘’The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies’’. WW Norton & Company, 2014. Pp53
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Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014. Pp50
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Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014. Pp52
19 Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014. Pp53
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The fact that we reached to other side of the chess board and that technology has become fast and cheap enough to go into production also means that the scope of technology has become much bigger. The western world especially and the majority of the rest of the world have access to a certain form of technology, speaking to the imagination is the smartphone and the image of
complete African tribes on their mobile phones. An example which perfectly illustrates the technological progress as well as the widening of technologies scope is the example of the Cray Supercomputer and the Apple Ipad 2. In 1985 NASA developed the Cray 2 supercomputer which at the time was revolutionary machine with a price tag of over 35 million dollar. However, humanity reached to other side of the chess board not much later; a couple years after the introduction of the Cray 2 supercomputer Apple presented in 2011 the Ipad 2 with the same peak computing speed as the Cray 2 supercomputer but the iPad additionally had a speaker, microphone and a headphone jack. The tablet device also had 2 camera’s: a front camera with VGA quality while the camera at the backside of the tablet had a camera which shot high-definition videos. Both cameras were also capable of makings pictures and even had a 5 times digital zoom function. The receivers on the tablet made it possible to use 3G digital networks as well as WIFI systems. It was provided with a GPS receiver, digital compass, speedometer, gyroscope and light sensor. It did not need a physical
keyboard because it was fitted with an high definition screen that was able to distinguish 11
simultaneous contact points. All these functions were put together in one small package, which was smaller, thinner and lighter than a magazine and which you could carry everywhere for the price of only 730 dollars. A revolution compared to the 35 million dollar Cray 2 supercomputer which was blind, immobile, deaf and dumb compared to the Ipad 2. Apple managed to fit all this technology in the iPad 2 due to the major technological progress and changes made in the decades before: sensors like cameras, microphones and speedometers made it possible to change the analog world to a digital one. The a supercomputer became an general consumer product.20
Supercomputers, autonomous cars and a wide range of practical robots and innovative tech products are developed in only just a couple years this decade. They are not just expensive
demonstration models, who serve marketing purposes, but the new technology shows it’s potential in a unpredictable and incalculable real world. These technological innovations reinforce the impression that humankind has arrived at a turning point where technology that was once the subject of science fiction now has become reality and is included in our daily reality. However, our science fiction predictions proved to be too modest. In science fiction blockbusters, like Startrek,
20 Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014. Pp54
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characters had access to tricorders which could measure geological, meteological and medical information but with our current generation of smartphones there is much more possible to do and a greater access to information.21 Today’s smartphones can be used as seismograph, current weather map while heartrythm and breathing are measured. But at the same time it has many more
capabilities. It can be used as a game console, camera, GPS tracking, navigation device, media player and window to an enormous amount of information. In the science fiction blockbusters they had next to tricorders a separate device for communication, but in the world of today the function of communication is added to the same device with all the functions described before. This allows people to consult an enormous amount of information as well as generating it.
2.3 Megatrends
New technology will impact everything we do on a daily base. The nine following megatrends will likely lead the way in the digitalization of economy, be the engines of technological development, and influence human lives the most.
Internet of Things
Simply put: the Internet of Things (IoT) is a network of sensors, software and processors that connects millions of devices. This allows people to collect enormous amounts of data. Artificial Intelligence can carry out analysis based on this enormous amount of information which we call: Big Data.22 The connection between these horizontal and vertical integration makes the development of smart technology even more powerful.23 Besides the development where our complete interiors will be part of the Internet of Things in the foreseeable future, there is another important part of the IoT and that are the medical wearables and implants.24 By taking a pill that contains a sensor the size of one grain of sand, patients and doctors and others healthcare providers are given the option of access to real time information about vital functions and processes in the human body. This allows doctors to objectively check patients on drug dependence, drug reaction, lifestyle changes and to which extent people follow the exact treatment. Patients will know immediately how their body reacts to the medication provided for them. The first healthcare institutes in the United States, like Barton Health, have started with prescribing the Proteus Discover. This is a system of sensor pills,
21
Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014.pp 40-42
22 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp16-29
23 Feki, Mohamed Ali, et al. "The internet of things: the next technological revolution." Computer 46.2 (2013): 24-25.
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sensor patches and a mobile app connected to an online portal. Once the system is activated it provides its users with an unprecedented insight in the health patterns of the patient and the effectiveness of medicines. The has led to more accurate diagnoses and improved treatments.25
Robotics
Robotics has seen an enormous development in the last decade. When we compare human labor to the cost of automation we see that automation relatively has become cheaper. In addition, an increasing number of scientist and scholars argue that advanced robotics have become superior to educated workers when it comes to pace, number of tasks and endurance. When this development continues to grow at the same pace it does today, robotic automation will soon be part of our daily lives at home and on the work floor. The rough automation from the past makes way for smaller, smarter and mobile robotized devices. It will result in a revolutionary change of production, logistics, medicine, healthcare and home care. Robotics is not exclusively the domain of heavy industry anymore. Thanks to improved mobility, the pursuit of less effort and the development of self-learning machines, the importance of robotics will transcend from factories. In the foreseeable future robots will be an essential part of our private homes, where ‘’robots’’ will function as personal assistants to its residents and take on a lot of work. The Android or Humanoid assistants as well as fully automated factories will become reality.26
Autonomous transport
Autonomous systems today are ready to potentially change the way we organize transport forever. Recent developments and improvements in the field of information sharing sensors, real time data processing and wireless communication make it possible for smart technology to take over control of your vehicle. This will allow the driver to become a passenger and enables them to read a
newspaper, check their email or relax and enjoy the ride. Autonomous transport holds the possibility to be inevitable disruptive. The technology of autonomous transport is much more advanced than a lot of people realize.27 Otto for example, which is a California based startup that was purchased by taxi company Uber, shows how much this technology is already developed. Otto has recently presented an autonomous truck which was equipped with 30.000 dollar high-tech equipment, that enabled the truck to deliver a load 190 kilometers away without human interference. They use a series of sensors which includes Lidar, a technology that can measure the distance between vehicles
25 Cohen, Lanny, ‘’ Monetizing the Internet of Things’’, Capgemini 2017 PDF
26 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp30-42 27 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp43-53
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on the road with the help of ‘’light’’, more specific with the help of laser pulses. An amount of 30.000 dollars seems a lot to upgrade a passenger car but prices of technology are rapidly becoming
cheaper. The price already makes it a smart investment for trucks because the price of a new truck is more than 150.000 dollar and it can directly save years of human labor salaries. The question is not if autonomous transport is going to replace human drivers but how fast is this going to happen. The implementation of this technology has the promise to save time, energy and money but also an positive effect on road safety and climate change while creating a new mobility paradigm.28 3D/4D Printing
3D Printing is a new additional production method, in which layers of thermoplastic or resin are pressed through precision equipment into a certain shape and then hardened or via a cut out system with harder materials like metals. The printing technology is already disrupting the traditional production methods as well as the pharmaceutical industry. This technology is improving and prices are dropping. This means a new major wave of innovation that will likely lead to changes in retail, construction, medical implants and restaurants. 3D printing technology will make it possible to produce on request while printers in the foreseeable future are not necessarily bound to a certain place. Which means that in the near future people will be able to order a product online and print it within the convenience of their personal home. The same applies to companies that will no longer have to wait for a replacement part to be shipped and delivered. They will be able to immediately print in house, which will make lead times something from the past.29 The next development in 3D printing will likely be in the medical sector. Multiple organizations, like the Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center, are doing trials in which they successfully 3D print ear, bone and muscle structures which were later implanted in animals. The printed fabric in these test animals has started to grow and function in a natural manner. Research like this is funded by the United States Army (DARPA), that is hoping to restore otherwise catastrophic injuries with this technique. The printing of organic tissue like blood vessels is possible due to bio-ink developed by the scientist of the University of Missouri. Bio-ink is a liquid suspension of cells and nutrients that often have an inorganic structure of matrix on which the cells can grow. Once printed in the correct form, the new structures are
immersed in nutrients or implanted later so the growth process can begin. These technological changes will in the near future make it possible to grow human organs for transplantation. In this way, technology will help to erase waiting lists for suitable organs and save many lives.30
28 Litman, Todd. "Autonomous vehicle implementation predictions." Victoria Transport Policy Institute 28 (2014). 29 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp54-62
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Augmented reality, virtual reality and mixed reality
Digital reality has the potential to create compelling experiences. Virtual reality (VR) can bring a user from the real world to a digital simulated world. Augmented reality (AR) adds a digital layer to the environment where the user is located. This can be for example charts or other relevant information in the working or learning environment, navigation marks in the public environment or gaming elements for leisure at home. Mixed reality is a combination of both, and can influence reality by supplementing it with digital interactive aspects. Imagine that you visit a house that you would like to buy and all the information that is relevant like job to home travel times, the dimensions of the rooms, bath and kitchen appear exactly at the right the time before your eyes. This would create enormous efficiency improvements as well as an improved buyer experience. All of this is possible because the Mixed reality glasses that you are wearing can follow your every eye movement and exactly knows where you are looking at while ‘feeling’’ or scanning when you want to know more about the energy costs for the property or the mortgage prices. Augmented, virtual and mixed reality has the potential to change the education, business, health and entertainment industry.31
Biotech
Biotechnology is the idea that biology is a complex technology. The idea is that we can use this complex technology to our advantage. To manipulate life itself with biotech, scientists should connect the best quantum computers to innovative nanotechnology and developments of the biology and chemistry field. Biotech fits in a context that we see more often today, it is a growing development in which science, engineering and the fastest computers have increasingly more and more with each other in common, especially because of the increasing processing capacity of these supercomputers.32 These combinations have the potential to create interesting possibilities, the first examples start to show like those of the University of California in San Francisco. They used a ‘gene assembly platform’ called CRISPR tot copy T-cells from people that are genetically immune to the effects of HIV, next they copied this information to the cells of people that are not immune to HIV which resulted in a genetic resistance to HIV on the second group. This eventually has the possibility to vaccinate people against HIV. Biotech could therefore result in a successful trend of the
‘technolization’ of nature.33
31 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp63-73 32 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp74-81
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Neurotech
Neuro-technology connects thoughts with the outside world by focusing on the interaction between computer and brain. With complex sensors, sophisticated scientific and technical developments neuro-tech gives blind people a chance to ‘see’, disabled people a chance to walk and depressive people a device to heal themselves. Neuro-techonolgy will likely allow us in the future to control machines with our thought. This enables other technologies like robotics or autonomous systems to further revolutionize. The key to this new technological development is the brain computer interface (BCI). This is a system that ensures a direct measurement of brain activity by translating small electrical signals into a langue that a computer can understand. In theory this means that a single thought potentially has the ability to control everything that can be automated.34 The healthcare division of Philips has made the first step in making the technology a consumer product. The developed medical systems for use at home that have the technology of BCI. This allows patients who suffer from neurodegenerative disorders like Alzheimer’s disease or Parkinson’s disease to control their own medical equipment. These systems measure the electrical activity generated by certain thoughts such as ‘’open my email’’ for example. The interface then translates these thoughts into commands for the computer like a voice-controlled system would do. This allows the patients with limited speech or other limitations to activate and control devices without using their voice or hands. This kind of technology is not only making a difference for people that need constant care and supervision, yet it is also the next step in in brain controlled robotics.35
Nanotech
Nanotech is technology that uses the surprising features of micro particles. It is changing the rules of physics and chemistry. From antimicrobial forms to tubes with casing that are not thicker than an atom, nanotechnology promises the radical disruption of material science and medicine. These developments in nanotechnology cannot be seen separate, it is a progress that touches multiple areas like physics, chemistry, 3D printing, biology and construction. These major scientific
developments are redefining reality and introduce a wide variety of new applications. A promising example of nanotech development is the nanomachine, developed by the University of Pittsburgh. This nanomachine creates microscopic engines made from gold and platinum and when the scientist of the University added hydrogen peroxide they showed that it helps the micro particles to repair themselves in case of disrupted circuits. Due to the chemical reaction between the liquid, the
34 Hooijdonk van, Richard, ‘’New Technology: Trendbook 2017’’, Kemp House London 2017 pp82-89
35 Christensen, Clayton M., Richard Bohmer, and John Kenagy. "Will disruptive innovations cure health care?." Harvard business review 78.5 (2000): 102-112.
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platinum and the resulting fuel gas, the golden edge of the so called ‘Janus particles’ were attracted to each other because of the energy difference that was caused by the disruption. The result is that the particles effectively end up in the right place so they can lock or close the circuit and start the operation of repair. Simply put, this means that when you spill coffee on your computer or you drop your smartphone into the water, the damaged circuits would be able to recover themselves. This has great implications repair costs of existing technologies like communication satellites are usually quite high. It is impractical to get the satellite back to earth, yet repairing in space is not an option either. The nanotech from nano-particles can make sure that satellites are able to repair themselves in space. This can save millions of euros and guaranties a long lasting uninterrupted service in space. Predictions are that it will not take long before almost all electronic devices can repair themselves.36
Big data
Big data can best be described as a soaring tsunami of information that is generated by mobile devices, sensors (IoT), the internet, network objects like ATM machines and wearables. Big data is unstructured and needs a sophisticated and intelligent analysis before it can be useful. However, it could possibly be the key to improve customer satisfaction and consumer wishes. Companies using big date will be able to understand their customers better and respond to their preferences and wishes immediately. Big data combined with Artificial Intelligence promises to create a wide range of new technological developments. This combination already proves to be a success. There are
machine-managed hedge funds under the name of Aidyia. Aidyia is a system that runs on a complex artificial intelligence system that uses data collected on the global financial markets: big data, to predict price fluctuations and market trends for the long term. The system of Aidya works similar to the human brain and tries to understand market changes by putting them in the correct context. It takes a look at the big picture as well as the key individual players. The system is not developed to work faster but to act smarter. The example of Aidya is only one of the many the possibilities of big data.37
2.4 So technology has always been a stimulator of productivity and employment opportunities throughout history. However, currently we are living in an era where we have to deal with
breakthrough technology that penetrates the capillaries of our societies. Lead by Information Technology, the current developments are disrupting the existing ratios. The effects of technology
36 Kim, Hong Koo, ‘’NanoScience and Engineering’’, University of Pitssburgh 2017
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are increasingly disruptive because the come in an ever shortening timespan. The nine megatrends: Internet of Things, Robotics, Autonomous transport, 3D/4D Printing, Biotech, Neurotech, Nanotech and Big Data, are currently leading the way in the digitalization of economy, are the engines of technological development, and influence human lives the most.
2.5 Europe 2020
In a reaction to the political, economical and technical developments, the European Union formulates its personal ambitions in an Agenda every decade. The Europe 2020 strategy is the agenda of the European Union for jobs and economic growth regarding the current decade (2010-2020). It is emphasizing on the sustainable, inclusive and smart growth as a way to overcome structural weaknesses of the European economy in addition to underpinning a sustainable social market economy and most of all improving productivity and competitiveness. This with the goal of becoming the most competitive economy in the world.38
This Europe 2020 strategy is given form by concrete challenges which give an overall view of where the European Union aims to be on key parameters by the year 2020. They concrete targets are translated into national targets so that each European Member State can check its own progress towards each goal. This happens in consultation with the European commission. The individual goals of member states can differ and depend on the starting point of each country. It is not based on the idea of burden-sharing. It are common goals for all European Member States that can be met through a mix of national and European actions. 39
Targets
The Europe 2020 targets are focused on 5 subjects:
- Employment: In the year 2020 75% of the European citizens between the ages of 20 and 64 has to be in work.
- Research & developments (R&D): 3% of the European Union’s Gross Domestic Product has to be invested in research and development.
- Climate change and energy: This target is focused on the so called 20/20/20 goals. Greenhouse emissions have to be 20% lower than the levels of 1990. A total of 20% of energy has to come from renewables. There has to be a 20% increase in energy efficiency
- Education: The rates of early school leavers has to be below 10% and at least 40% of the people aged between 30 and 34 have to complete a higher education
- Poverty and social exclusion: The number of European citizens that is living under the poverty line
38
European Commission, ‘’Europe 2020 strategy’’, European Union 2017 (ec.europa.eu) 39 European Commission, ‘’Europe 2020 strategy’’, European Union 2017 (ec.europa.eu)
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or at risk to drop below the poverty line has to be reduced, at least 20 million people have to be helped to conquer poverty and social exclusion. 40
All the targets are mutually reinforcing and interrelated. For example, educational improvements help employability while reducing poverty. R&D and energy efficiency makes the European Union more competitive while creating jobs. Investing in cleaner technologies will combat climate change while creating new job or business opportunities.41
Implementation
The Europe 2020 strategy is used as a reference framework for all activities of the European Union and at national and regional levels. The European Member States have set personal targets to help to achieve the overall EU targets. They are reporting on them as part of their annual national
programs.42
Monitoring
The strategy is monitored by the European Union’s statistics office; Eurostat. This organization regularly publishes comprehensive progress reports for the Europe 2020 targets. In 2015 the European Commission performed a midterm review of the Europe 2020 strategy. This review included the public consultation that showed that the strategy was still seen as an appropriate framework to promote growth and jobs. The European Commission decided to continue the Europe 2020 strategy which they monitor through a process known as the European Semester.43
The Digital Agenda
The most important pillar (1/7) of the Europe 2020 strategy is the Digital Agenda. This Agenda proposes to exploit the potential of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) much better in order to foster economic growth, progress and innovation. The Digital Agenda’s main objective is the development of a digital single market in the European Union in order to generate sustainable, smart and inclusive growth. Businesses should be able to market and share their ideas across the entire European Union while European citizens have access to every service and product without geo-blocking. The European Union wants to enhance interoperability and set standards. There has to be a full interoperability of devices, data, services, applications, repositories and networks. Next, Europe must strengthen its policies to combat cybercrime, child pornography and breaches of
40 European Commission, ‘’Europe 2020 strategy’’, European Union 2017 (ec.europa.eu) 41
European Commission, ‘’Europe 2020 strategy’’, European Union 2017 (ec.europa.eu) 42
European Commission, ‘’Europe 2020 strategy’’, European Union 2017 (ec.europa.eu) 43 European Commission, ‘’Europe 2020 strategy’’, European Union 2017 (ec.europa.eu)
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privacy and personal data security. This in order to strengthen the online trust and security in the 28 member states of the European Union. There will have to be a level playing field in all 28 countries for European citizens to know is happening to their personal data. A requirement for a single digital market is internet infrastructure therefore Europe must promote fast and ultra-fast internet for all. Although the internet has become part of daily life for many European citizens some parts of the population are still excluded from literacy in the digital environment. In order to prevent a shortage of employees with the correct skillset of digital skills the European Union will promote digital literacy, skills and inclusion. In addition there will be investments in research and innovation via innovative Public-Private Partnerships to boost growth and jobs. There will be a special focus on ICT in the following areas; climate change, healthcare to manage the ageing population and intelligent (automated) transport systems. 44
Summarizing, the Europe 2020 Agenda emphasis on the sustainable, inclusive and smart growth as a way to overcome structural weaknesses of the European economy in addition to underpinning a sustainable social market economy and most of all improving productivity and competitiveness. This with the goal of becoming the most competitive economy in the world. It is formed around concrete targets of employment, R&D, climate change & energy, education and poverty. The most important pillar of the Europe 2020 Agenda is the Digital Agenda with the main objective: the development of a digital single market in the European Union in order to generate sustainable, smart and inclusive growth.
44
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Case study: Autonomous transport
3.1 This case study will take a look at the digitalization of transport and more specifically at autonomous transport because this technological development has one of the highest impacts on the European society and will be a major visible disrupter that directly influences daily life of almost every European citizen. Therefore this case study will start with European transportation in general and is then followed by a detailed description of autonomous transport, this includes the different levels of automation. Next is the description of all stakeholders involved in the development of autonomous transport and the digitalization of transport. The case study continues with the potential and challenges of this technological development for the stakeholders involved and will than focus on concrete numbers, graphs and charts on European transportation which will include analysis on the impact of the introduction of autonomous transport on the European transportation sector.
3.2 The transportation sector of the European Union is highly important: transportation contributes about 5 percent to the European GDP. The demand for transportation of goods and people increases by an average of 2 to 3 percent each year. 45 As described by Violeta Bulc, the DG for Mobility and Transport of the European Commission, European Union transport is personal. It directly affects every citizen in Europe. Whatever age citizens are or activities people undertake, transport and mobility play a fundamental role in the world of today. The goal of the European Transport Policy is to promote mobility that is safe, efficient and environmentally friendly and which is serving the needs of business and citizens. This to help boost growth and jobs which will allow the European industry to compete on the global stage and remain cost-efficient.46
Policies regarding transport have been part of the common European policy for over 30 years. It was initiated by a judgement of the European Court of Justice on 22 may 1985. The legal basis for European Transport Policy is: Article 4 (2) (G) and title VI of the TEU.
As early the Treaty of Rome, the Member States of the European Union emphasized the importance of a common transport policy with its own title. Therefore, transportation became one of the first common areas of the European Community. The first priority was the creation of a common transportation market, which meant the free movement of services and the opening up of the individual transportation markets. This objective has largely been achieved, as even the rail
transportation markets will gradually be opened for competition. The opening of the transportation
45
Visser, N, ‘’Beleid vervoer’’ Europa Nu (PDC/Montesquie Instituut) Den Haag 2017
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markets also meant that fair conditions arose for competitors within various forms of transport but also between various forms of transport. Therefore, the harmonization of national laws and
regulations, including current social, fiscal and technological conditions, have gradually become more important.
After the economic crisis of 2008 a decrease in traffic was observed. However, the volume of transport for both persons and goods increased in the medium and long term due to successful completion of the internal European market, declining prices due to the opening and liberalization of transportation markets and changes in production systems as well as storage. Today the
economically successful and dynamic transportation sector is faced with increasing social and environmental obligations. The model of sustainable mobility is becoming increasingly important.47 The European transportation sector has too balance two different objectives. On the one hand the maintenance of reasonably priced and efficient mobility for people and goods. Which is highly important to a competitive single market within the European Union and the basis for the free movement of persons. On the other hand, a solution must be found for increasing traffic as well as a reduction of the impact and external costs like accidents, climate change, noise and environmental damage of such traffic.
Despite its success, the European transportation sector is still faced with many challenges in terms of sustainability, especially in terms of combating climate change. The European
transportation sector is responsible for almost a quarter of all EU-28 greenhouse gas emissions. Only the energy sector produces more greenhouse emissions. In addition the transportation sector is the only sector in Europe whose greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise since 1990 with a total of almost 22%.48 The European Union heavily relies on efficient transportation networks for the economy to stay competitive as well as connected to the rest of the world and to let its internal market function smoothly. Transport can be seen as the heart of Europe’s supply chain. It is a primary creator of jobs and it is essential for accelerating and generating growth. For Europe, a fully integrated single market which is making great use of digilatization and more efficient integrated transportation networks would bring major benefits for European citizens and companies. In addition it could address pollution and climate change in different regions. Europe’s economic success also depends largely on trade with countries outside the European Union, for which competitive and efficient transport is essential requirement.49
47
Visser, N, ‘’Beleid vervoer’’ Europa Nu (PDC/Montesquie Instituut) Den Haag 2017 48
European Parliament, ‘’Transportation Sector EU’’ www.europarl.europa.eu 02-11-17
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Transportation has been the driving force of European integration for more than 50 years. The European transportation system is highly competitive and sustainable on which is an excellent foundation for further improvement of mobility and growth of employment. Transportation chains do not stop at the border of the European Union’s external borders which makes it essential for Europe to take a global approach to rules, practices and standards. Where climate change and technological improvement prove to be the most challenging on the global stage.
In addition the European Union has put in place a comprehensive legislative framework to ensure affordable, competitive, safe and reliable transportation for goods and passengers around Europe. The European Union aims to have a fully integrated efficient transportation network to service passengers and the transportation of goods. This required a regulatory framework that ensured open access and a level playing field, the use of smart technologies to remove barriers that hinder a smooth functioning internal market, cooperation between industry and public authorities, facilitation of new services and fostering of co-modality. This all must contribute to the optimization of infrastructure use as well as a smoother interface between modes of transport.50 In addition to being the most important link in the European economic keychain, transportation itself is a huge contributor to the economy. It attributes 4.8% or 548 billion euro’s in gross value from all the 28 European Member States and it sustains more than 11 million jobs throughout Europe.
The current transport infrastructure policy of the European Union aims to connect the European continent from north to south and from east to west. This policy aims to remove
bottlenecks that hamper a smooth functioning of the single market, close the gaps between different national transportation networks and overcomes technical barriers. The transport infrastructure policy is funded with a budget of 26 billion euro up to 2020. In addition the transport policy will benefit from the European Commission’s 3 year investment plan to unlock private and public investments of at least 315 billion euro by 2018. The transport policy focuses on the following areas: 1. Safer roads. This EU has an strategic goal of halving road deaths by the year 2020. The number of deaths on the roads of the EU have halved between 1992 and 2010 from 70.000 to 31.000. Between 2010 and 2013 this figure fell by a further 17%. This means that the EU is on track of reaching its own strategic goal. 2. Decent social working conditions. 3. Competition. Lorries can now operate foreign countries that differs from their country of registration, which reduces the number of empty truck returns. This flexible system encourages competition, cuts costs, make journey’s more efficient, reduces pollution and drives up the quality of passenger and freight services. 4. Research &
Innovation. The European transport policy supports research and innovation with means and money. It encourages the effective deployment of new green transport technologies as well as technologies
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for road safety. For example, new European rules require that European Member States promote clean technologies, like cars and trucks that run on electricity, by let them build a minimum of re-charging stations.51
3.3 Autonomous transport
The next challenge for the European transportation sector is the introduction of autonomous transport. Simply put: cars and trucks that can drive themselves. This innovation will likely change every aspect of transportation.
Autonomous transport technologies will allow the transfer of driving functions from a human being to a computer. The automation, and more particular digitalization, of driving will likely change road transportation in a way which will be received as a complete revolution of the field of mobility. Today where human error is the most important reason for road accidents as well as road fatalities, driving which is autonomous because it is controlled by a computer is expected to make road
transport in the future much safer and more secure. In addition, it has the potential to be much more friendly for the environment, efficient and accessible. Automobile manufacturers and technology giants worldwide are working on driving system innovations. However, only the agreement by all stakeholders regarding the desired deployment of new technologies would provide developers with the certainty the need for further investments. Motor vehicles or computers on wheels are
extremely complex systems which will need advanced legal and technical standers in terms of road safety requirements. The international traffic rules as well as the technical requirements are agreed at the level of the United Nations. They are currently in a process of assessment with an approach to increase the automation of vehicles. The European Union and its member states in specific are actively funding research and are participating in international working groups who are revising the regulations for the deployment of automated transport. Key elements in the discussion on the technical and political aspects of autonomous transport are questions of how cyber security and data protection can be secured and how liability issues should be dealt with.52
Levels of automation
In autonomous transport two terms can be identified: ‘’automated vehicles’’ which use on-board equipment to perform one or multiple driving tasks automatically and ‘’self-driving vehicles’’ which are vehicles that are able to drive autonomously, without control of a human driver. Another distinction found in the literature on this subject is based on the degree to which an automated
51
European Union, ‘’ European Union – Vervoersbeleid’’ www.europa.eu 03-11-17 52 International Transport Forum, ‘’Automated and autonomous driving’’, OECD 2015
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vehicle is ‘’autonomous’’ so relying solely on its personal on board equipment to take decisions, collect information and inform tasks. Or ‘’connected’’ which would mean a communication with personal devices (smartphones), other vehicles or the surrounding infrastructure to perform driving tasks and collect information. Connected and automated vehicles seem two distinct concepts but they are firmly link to each other. Technologies that can connect a vehicle with other vehicles or infrastructure are already in use in non-automated vehicles, like for example an e-call device to automatically connect to emergency services. Connection technologies will prove to be a crucial element in the development of more advanced levels of vehicle automation, both in freight as passenger transport.53
To establish a successful communication between the political spheres, technological spheres and society a categorization is being developed which defines the different levels of vehicle
automation. Today, different ways of categorizing the levels of autonomous driving exist in parallel. However most organizations follow a classification set by the International society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The SAE identified six different levels of automation in the SAE International Standard J3016, to simplify the communication and facilitate the collaboration of political and technical domains. 54
53
Frisoni, R, Nelson, C, etc. ‘’ Self-piloted vehicles: the future of transport? “ DG Internal Policies European Parliament 2017 pp19 54 International Transport Forum, ‘’Automated and autonomous driving’’, OECD 2015
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The levels of automation identify how the different aspects of dynamic driving task are being divided between the machine and human in the vehicle in different driving modes. Each driving mode has its own particular characteristics like high speed cruising, motorway merging or low speed traffic jam. The dynamic driving task includes various aspects that can me automated. It has
operational aspects like braking, steering and accelerating but also monitoring the roadway and vehicle. It also includes decision and tactical aspects such as determining when to change lanes, responding to events, using signals or turning.55
Level 0 : No automation
The driver is responsible for performing all dynamic driving tasks on a steady basis during the complete during next to monitoring the environment. Level 0 is described as ‘’no automation’’ however, two sets of systems fall in this class and can intervene driving without the input of the human driver: - Warning systems like for example park distance control, lane change assist, front collision warning and lane departure warning. – Emergency systems like for example electronic stability control, anti-lock system and emergency braking. Although this class includes some systems that provide longitudinal and lateral control in specific situations (for example braking) all these functions are still considered as non-automated because they only intervene short periods of time and non-sustained periods.56
Level 1: Driver assistance
Autonomous vehicles with level 1 systems are able to execute parts of the dynamic driving task, lateral as well as longitudinal. The human driver remains responsible for the other aspects of driving which include event and object detection and response, execution of the non-automated dynamic driving tasks, supervision of the automated dynamic driving tasks and deactivation or activation of the assistant driver systems. Driver assistance systems are for example, parking assist with
automated steering, adaptive cruise control (ACC) and lane keeping assists (LKA). 57
Level 2: Partial automation
These systems can execute parts of the accelerating or breaking control (longitudinal) and the steering (lateral) control. With level 2 automation, the human driver is responsible for monitoring and responding to the driving conditions around the vehicle as well as supervising the deactivation or activation of the automated systems. In a vehicle with this level of automation, the human driver
55
International Transport Forum, ‘’Automated and autonomous driving’’, OECD 2015 56
ERTRAC, ‘’Automated Driving Roadmap’’, Taskforce Connectivity and Automated Driving 2015 pp6-16 57 ERTRAC, ‘’Automated Driving Roadmap’’, Taskforce Connectivity and Automated Driving 2015 pp6-16
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could be disengaged from physical operation of the vehicle in certain circumstances. The human driver would be able to take the hands of the steering wheel. However, the human driver needs to monitor the environment at all times and immediately take full control of the vehicle when this is necessary. Level 2 automated systems include traffic jam assist and advanced parking assist.58
Level 3: Conditional automation
Vehicles with automation level 3 are able to perform all the different aspects of one or more driving tasks and functions of safety during for example during traffic jams on motorways. With automated systems level 3 the human driver is not required to constantly monitor all the automated dynamic driving tasks while the level 3 automation system is active. However, the human driver needs to be able to take over the car controls with an appropriate time of reaction when needed. The
autonomous system needs to alert the driver in advance if certain conditions require the transition from computer to human driver control. The automation systems of level 3 include highway chauffeur systems and traffic jam chauffeur systems. 59
Level 4: High automation
These automated systems can perform all aspects of the dynamic driving tasks under specific conditions. They do not require a human driver to provide fallback, they are capable of initiating a deactivation when certain conditions are no longer met. This allows the human driver to take on secondary actions like reading a newspaper or watching a movie. These secondary actions even can be ones who take a longer reaction time then only having your hands off the wheel. 60
Level 5: Full automation
Level 5 systems of vehicle automation are capable of performing every aspect of the dynamic driving tasks under all environmental and roadway conditions. Vehicles with level 5 automation are being designed to autonomously complete a journey without the need of a human driver. These
autonomous systems can be properly named ‘’self-driving vehicles’’. 61
58 ERTRAC, ‘’Automated Driving Roadmap’’, Taskforce Connectivity and Automated Driving 2015 pp6-16 59
ERTRAC, ‘’Automated Driving Roadmap’’, Taskforce Connectivity and Automated Driving 2015 pp6-16 60
ERTRAC, ‘’Automated Driving Roadmap’’, Taskforce Connectivity and Automated Driving 2015 pp6-16 61 ERTRAC, ‘’Automated Driving Roadmap’’, Taskforce Connectivity and Automated Driving 2015 pp6-16
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3.4 Stakeholders Autonomous Transport
The development of autonomous transport knows different stakeholders, among these various stakeholders that are supporting innovation in this area, two different groups of can be distinguished. First the traditional transportation stakeholders who are already active in the transportation and automotive sector. Like for example: Those who sell, repair and manufacture vehicles. Those who are responsible for policies regarding transport, infrastructure safety and transport like the national and local governments as well as public authorities and international organizations. Those providing passenger transport services like public transport operators. Those who provides facilities and services to the transportation system like insurance companies or telecommunication companies. Second the prospective and emerging transportation stakeholders such as technology companies who see the potential new business opportunities in this area or the providers of new transportation mobility services like ride sharing or car sharing companies. These players can build on the technological advancement of this are and challenge the dominant private transport demand paradigm which is based on the pillar of owning a private car. However it still proves to be very difficult to assign stakeholders exclusively to one of these two categories, in many cases the different stakeholders cooperate with one and other to make more progress. 62
Traditional transportation stakeholders
Public entities
International and national public organizations are very interested in the research and development of automated vehicles. They see the potential to improve the different transportation systems (local, regional, national and European): by the prevention of accidents that are mostly caused by human error, by providing accessibility to the people who are currently unable to drive like disabled or elderly people or those who can simply not afford a personal car, by reducing the transport
congestion and the negative environmental emissions with optimizing the traffic flows. In addition to sustain the economic development of their territories by attracting new investors who are pursuing these new promising business opportunities or help insure that the existing companies like car manufacturers can benefit from a legislative framework which allows them to invest in the these fields of technological development.
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The European Commission has demonstrated a great interest in vehicle automation. They would like that the European industry sets the business and technical standards for automation and also reap the rewards that come with such a position. The commission has funded a variety of innovation and research projects which are related to automated vehicles in the last decade. The main area of interest has been the development and implementation of driver assistance systems to improve driving safety in the EU for the last decades with projects like: PreVent (2004-2008), Haveit (2008-2011), InteractIVe (2010-2013) and CityMobil (2005-2011).63 Today the European Commission has set bigger goals and want to develop the entire framework of autonomous transportation. Projects funded this decade are: The Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) which is a platform that allows traffic managers and road users to share information with each other and coordinate their actions. The system makes real-time data from different sources available. It can provide vehicles with real-time advice on speed, preferable lane on the road, road maintenance, dangers and traffic lights. It can give certain road users priority over others at intelligent
intersections. For example a traffic light that stays green for a heavy truck to prevent unnecessary conjunction and emissions . The system provides road users with necessary information (for autonomous driving) while traffic managers will be able to adjust traffic flows much more precise and direct. It is like a giant cloud where everybody sends there information and finds information to navigate Europe’s road network.64 Secondly, the European Commission has brought together the automotive and telecoms industries for round-table talks. These talks have already resulted in the commitment from both industries to start working on the implementation of 5G technologies for automated and connected driving. Third is the GEAR 2030 High Level Group which is a group made up from industry stakeholders, member states and European Commissioners. This group has
delivered recommendations for connected and automated vehicles up to 2020 and it will continue to provide guidance and vision for the sector. 65
When we take a look at an individual member state we see that the Dutch government aims to maintain a strong position in the automation process of Europe and wants to convert the Port of Rotterdam in one of the most logistically efficient ports in the world with the support of autonomous supply lines. The Netherlands launched the Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative (DAVI) in 2013 and proves to be the most relevant public-private platform for coordinating national strategies. The Netherlands also pushed for the singing of the Treaty of Amsterdam which is a declaration on the cooperation in the field of connected and automated driving on the European roads. 66
63
Frisoni, R, Nelson, C, etc. ‘’ Self-piloted vehicles: the future of transport? “ DG Internal Policies European Parliament 2017 pp31-33 64 DG Move, ‘’C-ITS Platform’’, European Commission 2016
65
European Commission, ‘’Roadmap on Highly Automated vehicles’’ GEAR 2030 Discussion Paper January 2016
