RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF POPULATION DECLINE. CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIONS BETWEEN POPULATION DECLINE, SOCIAL RESILIENCE AND THE ROLE OF PROPERTY ABANDONMENT IN THE PROVINCE OF BRABANT

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RESILIENCE IN TIMES

OF POPULATION

DECLINE

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF

RELATIONS BETWEEN POPULATION

DECLINE, SOCIAL RESILIENCE AND

THE ROLE OF PROPERTY

ABANDONMENT IN THE PROVINCE OF

BRABANT

ABSTRACT

In this research the central questions and hypotheses are centered around the relation between population decline and social resilience, and the effect of property abandonment on these relationship. Special attention was paid to the definitions and operationalizations of social resilience. The data originated from the social resilience monitor of 2018, which was supplemented by additional data on contexts and property abandonment from CBS (Statistics Netherlands), as well as Gies and Naeff (2019), resulting in a sample of 9193 respondents from all municipalities in Brabant. The data was weighed and put through regression analyses. Little support was found for the relation between population decline and resilience, though social cohesion is slightly higher experienced in areas with less population growth than in areas with much population growth. Little support was also found for the effect of property abandonment, though agricultural abandonment related positively to community resilience. Though the different operationalizations of social resilience are not interchangeable, they are similar enough that investing in social cohesion would result in increasing social resilience as well. The resources people have available are more important for social resilience than the area where people live.

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Master thesis: Human Geography

Master Urban and Cultural Geography

Author

Clara Stuij s4285905

Course

Master thesis MAN-MSG050 Internship supervisor

Vester Munnecom Thesis supervisor Roos Hoekstra-Pijpers

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Preface

Similar to basically any other project in life, you have to start somewhere and you have to end somewhere. When I started over a year ago with the orientation on topics of my thesis, I knew straight away that I would like to be working with population decline. That was my start, but where my journey would end up, I could not tell anyone. After starting my internship at the Waardenmakers in ‘s Hertogenbosch, working closely with the Province of Brabant, touring for two days through the province, spending two weeks running my analysis in a different office in Tilburg during hot summer days and talking to many people with diverse backgrounds and knowledge, I am ending the process of my thesis here: a booklet or two containing everything I know on population decline, social resilience and property abandonment in Brabant. These topics are sometimes sensitive and emotional, and yet I tried to catch these feelings and turn those into numbers, as any quantitative researcher likes to do. I hope you, the reader, likes those numbers, but moreover I hope you can appreciate the effort and the enthusiasm I put in the booklets.

I would also like to take the time to thank many people who have aided and supported me in the last year. First, I would like to thank Roos Hoekstra-Pijpers, my thesis supervisor, for her never-ending patience, her knowledge and helpful feedback. I am also grateful for my internship supervisor, Vester Munnecom, whose patience and enthusiasm inspired me, and whose connections always helped me to find the answers I was looking for. I also thank everyone at the Waardenmakers for including me in their processes and letting me talk about my own. My thankfulness also goes to the team of het PON, and in particular Loet Verhoeven, who helped me with my analysis. Thank you for letting me work in your office for a couple weeks, and letting me have the luxury of two screens for running my analyses. And maybe more importantly so, thank you for allowing me to use the data on social resilience, I could not have finished this thesis without them. And finally, I would like to thank Marlou Ramaekers for answering all my questions even when it related to the very basics of statistics, and Rutger Schottert for the many cups of coffee and company throughout the summer.

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Summary

After 2040, the population of Brabant is predicted to be shrinking, due to the ageing society, high death rates and low birth rates. By 2040 these rates will no longer be compensated by the immigration rate, which will lead to population decline, according to the population prognosis.

The prognoses raise uncertainties how existing issues such as vacant buildings and how people and communities deal with change, will develop along the changes in the demographics. Therefore the research questions were formulated as the following: To what extent does population decline relate to

social or community resilience? And how does property abandonment affect this relationship? And lastly, to what extent do social capital, cohesion, social resilience and community resilience differ in Brabant?

The theoretical framework used, is mostly based on the Transition Theory as put forth by Wilson (2012), which is summarized as the following: societies and communities continuously go through transitions of the organization of that community, which is influenced by contexts and factors on multiple scalar levels. One of these factors may very well be population decline, while social resilience is an expression of the state of the organization of that community.

Social resilience is defined as the ability on groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. Resources and skills individuals and communities have available, play a big role in their resilience, which is the reason to include many resources in the analysis. Properties can also be considered resources, though when they are abandoned, it may be more of a lacking resource.

The data used in this thesis are from Het PON/Telos, obtained in the context of their Social Resilience Monitor Brabant 2018. The total response was 10.108, though after removing missing values, the sample used in the analyses counted 9.193 respondents. Aside from the questions asked in the monitor and the background information of the respondents, additional data from CBS (Statistics Netherlands) further enriched the data, providing context on municipalities or regions where people live, and the numbers concerning property abandonment. The data concerning agricultural abandonment were obtained from Gies and Naeff (2019).

After performing the regression analyses, the answers on the research questions can be formulated. Little support was found for the idea that population growth or decline affects social resilience directly. Other aspects of social capital and experiencing cohesion were related to population growth. In areas with less population growth, individuals experience higher social cohesion than in areas with more population growth. Probably this reflects the type of area (urban or small villages) rather than the population decline.

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agricultural abandonment affected community resilience, the sense of being able to resolve problems with the community and the feeling of connectedness. Expected was that property abandonment would affect these indicators negatively, but instead where there is more agricultural abandonment, people already feel more connected to each other, and feel more capable of resolving problems together. In areas that are more focused on farming, those attitudes of being a good neighbor are more important because people more often have to rely on the help of their neighbors because other services or acquaintances are too far away, as these are more often remote areas. In areas with more focus on farming, there are also more farms being expected to be vacated. It is certainly recommendable to look further into the relations between property abandonment, not necessarily of the agricultural type, and the social aspects of community.

The regional differences in social resilience mattered less after adding property abandonment and resources. This is important to keep in mind for policy measures: not the regional differences should be leading, but the resources people have available should lead in improving social resilience. Furthermore, the differences between social capital, cohesion, social resilience and community resilience are present, though mostly in nuance differences. In both meaning and results, there is quite some overlap in different operationalizations of these indicators. They are not completely interchangeable, but still quite similar. This could mean that when investing in some aspects of social capital or cohesion, it might affect social resilience as well.

At the end of the thesis, I make several recommendations for both further research and possible policy interventions. Firstly, it is recommendable to expand this research with panel data over time, in order to determine causality, as well as to look further in how population decline can serve as a context for a transition or in the pathways of transitions. I would also recommend to take an effort in doing a multilevel analysis, as in this thesis the different scalar levels were not easy to disentangle. The data had to be brought down to the individual level, which makes drawing conclusions on the level of municipalities or regions difficult. Some of the findings seemed to relate to the type of area where people lived instead of the area itself, but it was not possible to include the degree of urbanity in the research, which might have offered different insights. Furthermore, I recommend comparing this case to a province or a region where the population decline is already setting in, as opposed to it mostly being predicted. Subsequently, further exploration of the differences between social resilience or social indicators is commendable. Not only is it important to remain critical on the definitions of the indicators used, it is also profitable to know what these indicators entail. Not only researchers benefit from that, also policy makers can profit from a clearer definition of social resilience. Lastly I recommend including property abandonment or the built environment in social research more. The build environment affects the feel of the area, in positive or negative sense, which can work its way in indirectly related elements of life.

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5 For policy interventions, it is advisable to take the focus of policies off of growth, in particular when it concerns areas that are expected to be declining in population sooner rather than later. A focus on adaptation would be more durable, including but not limited to adapting services for future demographics and adapting elements in villages to maintain social cohesion and with that community resilience. It is important to maintain spaces where people can meet and participate in activities even when their resources may seem to be lacking. When people live longer in a place and are generally healthy and able to participate in society through membership of organizations or associations, people feel more resilient. When they are able to meet each other, they can also help each other, through for example arranging car trips together. Other concrete example for interventions on people’s resilience are communal-owned cars, funding club memberships for those with small incomes and creating those aforementioned spaces where people can meet, and open those up for the very eldest (70+) or younger age groups (below 40s).

It is also commendable to include social aspects in other fields that are not necessarily directly related to social cohesion or social capital. Resources remain important for feeling that people can handle problems together, and is even more important than the region people live in. Regarding agricultural abandonment it could be even more important to relate the policy measures taken to the community surrounding the vacant properties and to use the neighborship to their advantage.

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1. Introduction

After 2040, the population of Brabant is predicted to be shrinking, due to the ageing society, high death rates and low birth rates. By 2040 those rates will no longer be compensated by the immigration rate, which will lead to population decline, according to the population prognosis of the province of Brabant (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2017). In particular the population in the areas that are considered most rural and the ‘edges’ of Brabant, meaning the municipalities along the borders of the province, are predicted to be shrinking sooner rather than later. West-Brabant, parts of the Kempen, the Peel (both located in Southeast) and the region Land van Cuijk (located Northeast) are struggling with an ageing demographic, brain drain, closing schools, a difficult housing market and impoverishment of the economic and social vitality (Brabantkennis, 2019). The prognoses raise uncertainties about how existing issues such as vacant buildings and how communities will deal with change, will develop alongside the changes in the demographics (Brabantkennis, 2019). In this thesis, I will look into the relations between population decline, the resilience of people and communities, and property abandonment in Brabant.

In the following sections I will introduce the case of Brabant, after which I further introduce the main concepts of population decline, social resilience and property abandonment. Subsequently I formulate the research objectives, delve into the scientific and social relevance of this thesis. The chapter is closed with an overview of the chapters of this thesis.

1.1 Introducing the case

In this thesis, I am focusing on the case of the province of Brabant. It is located in the south of the Netherlands, forms a part of the Dutch border with Belgium and therefore it can be considered a part of the edge of the Netherlands. Generally, the province is subdivided in four COROP regions or 64 municipalities. The four COROP regions are West, Central, Northeast and Southeast Brabant. In each region there is at least one city, where most, if not all, services are centered: hospital, educational institutes and a high concentration of businesses. In Northeast Brabant that is ‘s Hertogenbosch, the capital of the province. In Southeast Brabant it is Eindhoven, Central Brabant has Tilburg and West Brabant focuses on Breda. That all regions have a city with similar functions for their surrounding municipalities, make the regions a good fit for comparison. The regions differ in relative distances to the Randstad: West Brabant is more closely connected to Rotterdam, whereas Northeast Brabant is more closely connected to Utrecht and Amsterdam.

As mentioned in the introduction, the prognoses about population developments in Brabant foresee that after 2040 the migration rates will not be able to compensate the natural growth rates. Brabant as a whole will face slight population decline (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2017). A quarter of the municipalities in Brabant already saw the population decline slightly between 2005 and 2015. It is

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9 described as incidental, as it was mostly influenced by migration flows specific per municipality. In the long term, this decline will become structural. It is a question what the consequences of this decline will be in Brabant, or even what the consequences of predicted population decline are for the general attitude about the shrinking regions and the future there. The prognoses see that the structural population decline will start at the edges of the province and in the rural areas but it will be followed by other regions that are considered more central and more urban as shown in the figures below (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2017; Kooiman, Jong, Huisman, Duin & Stoeldraaier, 2016; Ritsema van Eck, Gemeren, Zwaneveld & Huisman, 2016).

Figure 1: Population Prognosis Brabant 2005-2040 per municipality. Red municipalities show population decline, blue municipalities show population growth. Adapted from Province Noord-Brabant (2017) http://bevolkingsprognose.brabant.nl/hoofdstuk/groei-en-krimp-gemeente.

These are coincidentally regions located relatively far from the larger cities as well as the Randstad, which makes commuting to and from the four biggest cities of the Netherlands more difficult. In particular for West and Southeast Brabant is this the matter. Meanwhile the Randstad offers a lot of opportunities for students or starters on the labor market, which causes a brain drain in the aforementioned regions in the periphery. I will further delve into this in the section about population decline.

As the focus of this thesis is on the province as a whole, comparing regions with each other, there is also a role for the Province as an administrative body, which is where the Province with a capital letter comes in. The Province is a good place to start with policy interventions that regard the entire province, especially when it involves several municipalities or regions, which is the case for population decline. Additionally, the Province already has policy programs that concerns social resilience and property abandonment. I will expand on these programs in the next section, where I will explicate the key concepts of this thesis.

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1.2 Introducing key concepts

In this section, the key concepts of this thesis are introduced by giving the general definition and background information on the concepts. That includes the history of the concept, how it looks like in its form in the Netherlands or Brabant.

1.2.1 Population decline

The population of the Netherlands is shrinking around the edges of the country. The Ministry of Internal Affairs designated several regions as a shrinking region or an anticipation region and they receive special attention in policy and monetary support (Blok, 2014). The parameters of these regions are based on current and expected growth rates of the population. Shrinking regions are those that are expected to face population decline of at least 12,5 percent until 2040. The expected household decline is 5 percent. For anticipation regions both of these percentages would be at least 2,5 percent. These areas do not have a harsh population decline but should anticipate on it nevertheless. The Dutch shrinking regions are parts of Friesland, Groningen, Limburg and Zeeland, and anticipation regions are found in Friesland, Drenthe, Gelderland, Limburg, Zeeland, North- and South-Holland. This does not mean that other areas of the Netherlands will not be facing population decline, it means that it might be not as strong as the parameters ascribe.

Population decline is not a recent, or a new phenomenon. Since the Industrial Revolution the demographic developments seems to cycle between urbanization, suburbanization and de-urbanization. Thissen (1992)describes that in the 60’s and early 70s of the last century most rural areas knew a time of deconcentration and suburbanization. As opposed to the years before, the rural growth rates were higher than the urban growth rates. After 1975 the urban growth rates were catching up to the rural growth rates, and around 1980 the urban growth rates surpassed the rural growth rates, meaning that urban areas grew quicker population wise than rural areas did. Some areas in Groningen and Friesland showed a population decline in the early 90s, and these areas are still known as shrinking regions today. Haartsen and Venhorst (2010) call attention to when between 2010 and 2040 many municipalities will start to experience population stagnation or decline, the next municipality over can still be experiencing population growth. The inequality in growth or decline rates between municipalities can affect the collaboration processes at the regional levels (Haartsen & Venhorst, 2010). Thissen (1992) also describes how the attention from policy perspective to life in the village and rural areas was focused on livability in the 70s, whereas this turned to accessibility in the 80s. These descriptions show that population decline and related themes are not new, unexpected or unique in the Dutch history. In nearly all of those descriptions Brabant does not really pop up as a vulnerable region; though as mentioned before, the prognoses of the Province of Brabant from 2017 do show that after 2040 the migration rates will not be able to compensate the natural growth rates, and

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11 Brabant as a whole will face slight population decline (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2017). This would mean that Brabant needs to prepare for the consequences of population decline.

However, Hospers (2010) warns for self-fulfilling prophecies, as the idea of a declining population alarms people, makes them wonder about the consequences for their living environment. The current reactions of policy-makers mostly center around planning for quality instead of quantity (Haartsen & Venhorst, 2010). Haartsen and Venhorst (2010) also argue that the financing of local government needs to change, as a financing system based on the number of inhabitants for municipalities or the number of pupils for schools will turn out untenable in the near future. Furthermore, that same research argues that there several topics concerning population decline that have not had enough attention paid to: the people who stay. Though they are talking about keeping the people who stay behind content, it is important to pay attention to how they will function throughout different lifestyle phases and with the resources they have available. Thissen (1992) researched the depopulation in Zeeland, where he found that there is an inequality in types of settlements, educational attainment and life cycle stages, as he showed in the figure below.

Figure 2: Lifecycle stage in four type of settlements in Southeast Zeeland, described for three levels of educational attainment. Lifecycle stage is defined based on the age and household type. Reprinted from Thissen (1992) Restructuring of rural areas in the Netherlands. In Huigen, P., Paul, L. & Volkers, K. (Ed.). The Changing Function and Position of Rural Areas in Europe (p. 83).

Even though the research might be quite old, it would not hurt to pay attention to those types of inequality and how that affects how people live in areas with population decline. In an open letter in the Volkskrant written by Bettina Bock and representatives of the provinces of Gelderland, Groningen,

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Zeeland and Limburg (Bock et al., 2017), they argue that in the periphery of the Netherlands there is a risk for a higher concentration of vulnerable groups: more elderly, more people with a low educational attainment and low incomes, more people with difficulties to find work and at the same time more people with health problems and lower life expectations. Not only is it problematic that those groups are overrepresented in the periphery, the distances to services that are of aid for vulnerable people are generally larger in the periphery than in more central regions, such as the Randstad. In the long run it might cause a larger chasm of inequality between the Randstad and the rest of the Netherlands, in particular the areas often referred to as ‘Randland’, along the edges of the country (Bock et al., 2017; Brabantkennis, 2019). This growing chasm is partly also due to the differences in investments between Randstad and the periphery, in addition to the focus of policy makers on growth and development and not maintaining or preparing for population decline (Bock et al., 2017; Hospers, 2010).

In particular the concentration of vulnerable groups in areas facing population decline, raises the questions on how to maintain the level of services in such a way that the people living in sparsely populated areas are still able to be resilient. That brings us to the next key concept.

1.2.2 Social resilience

Social resilience is the extent in which people can help themselves with the resources they have available either to themselves or through their social network. The specific definitions vary slightly between different sources. The Province of Brabant defines it as the ability to respond to changes in their Social Resilience program (Provincie Noord-Brabant, n.d.), whereas research institute Het PON operationalized social resilience based on abilities such as radius of action and the resources people have (Dagevos et al., 2018). Wilson (2012) defines social resilience as the ability to deal with unexpected changes, either as a group or as an individual. Contrary to Dagevos et al (2018), Wilson uses capitals to group skills and resources together. They also differ slightly in how they further demarcate social resilience, especially when it comes to practical indicators. In the next chapter I will elaborate on these definitions and the differences between them.

There are two social resilience monitors in Brabant that offer information about the current state of social resilience in Brabant. These monitors are from research institutes Het PON and Telos. The first social resilience monitor dates from 2016 and intended to gain knowledge on the social resilience in Brabant to serve as a foundation for the provincial program (Blanken et al., 2016). The second social resilience monitor was published two years later and served to obtain a more in-depth knowledge of social resilience of Brabant and which elements relate to social resilience (Dagevos et al., 2018). One of the more important conclusions found in these monitors are the regional differences within Brabant. In particular West Brabant appears to have more people that are less socially resilient. These regional differences make it interesting to use social resilience as a lens to look at population

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13 decline, because West Brabant is also one of the regions where population decline will set in first. The aforementioned provincial program that concerns social resilience, is instigated by the Province of Brabant. In the coalition agreement of the Province of Brabant of 2015-2019, social resilience was appointed as a major focus point. This was the reason the first social resilience monitor was set up, which in turn influenced the shape of the Social Resilience Program.

Social resilience replaced ‘livability’ as an angle for population developments and maintaining the level of facilities in neighborhoods and villages in Brabant. This angle was mostly encouraged by the CDA, a confessional party that until 2015 had almost always been involved in the coalition of the Province of Brabant (Graaf, 2015). After the elections of 2015 their position on the portfolio of livability and culture was taken over by the Social Party (SP), who preferred the angle of social resilience instead (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2015). This raises the question what the difference would be between livability and social resilience. Bock (2016) argues that residents consider livability as more than just the services in the village or neighborhood, but is also reflected in the sense of community, experiencing cohesion or social capital. Those social elements are more apparent in social resilience, whereas the services seem less apparent within the definition of social resilience, as though it might be accounted for indirectly. Livability is defined as “a sum of factors that add up to a community’s quality of life, including the built and natural environments, economic prosperity, social stability and equity, educational opportunity, and cultural, entertainment and recreation possibilities (Partners for Livable Communities, n.d.). Social resilience focuses on the social factors such as cohesion and social networks, and the resources that can be accessed through themselves or their network. It could be considered a part of what makes an area livable. Therefore it is my intention to critically look at how social resilience is defined and operationalized, and how that differs from other related concepts, such as social capital and cohesion. Are the concepts of social cohesion, social capital or the sense of community truly different from social resilience, or do they cover the same aspects? To what extent does it matter what the definition differences are for the lens of social resilience on topics as population developments or property abandonment?

1.2.3 Property abandonment

Property abandonment, especially in the center of villages and towns, is a very visible issue. Seeing empty storefronts and houses, often behind on their maintenance, influences the ambiance of the street and neighborhood as experienced by residents and visitors (Vereniging Nederlandse Gemeenten [VNG], 2011). Property abandonment is often thought to be related to less immediately visible issues in society, such as demographic developments, neglect of the neighborhood or criminality (Benneworth & Velderman, 2016; CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR, 2017; de Vries, 2015). It is mostly considered a symptom of underlying phenomena, such as population decline for example, and not an isolated

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Brabant is struggling with abandonment of buildings in all sectors and all throughout the province (Provincie Noord-Brabant, n.d.). Of all buildings that are designated retail, offices, industry and social real estate, about 7 percent is empty. In the entire province of Brabant this entails 5.600 buildings. In particular in West-Brabant the abandonment of buildings is persistent: they have the highest percentages of all types of abandonment except for social real estate, compared to other regions in Brabant. The total abandonment rate in West-Brabant is about 9 percent, which stands out against the rates of approximately 7 percent in Central-Brabant, 6 percent in Southeast-Brabant and 4, almost 5 percent in Northeast-Brabant. In absolute numbers West-Brabant also stands out as having the largest amounts of vacant properties and Northeast-Brabant as the lowest amounts of vacant properties, the difference entailing at least a couple hundred properties, with a 600 difference as the largest gap for industrial abandonment (Provincie Noord-Brabant, n.d.).

The Province of Brabant has several programs concerning property abandonment, in which they differentiate between different types of abandonment or property abandonment. In the perspective of spatial planning, economics and livability it is impractical, inefficient and unsafe to have many empty buildings. In particular in the western regions the property abandonment rates is persistent (Provincie Noord-Brabant, n.d.). Recently the problems around property abandonment have gained a lot of attention, as the media picked up on criminal networks using the vacant buildings, mostly stemming from the agricultural sector, to use for their drugs laboratories, storage or dumping grounds. Especially former farmers are vulnerable because they are often facing financial risks and try to compensate their losses by renting out their barns (RTLNieuws, 2019; Lee, 2019; NOS, 2019). The explanation that is often offered for the regional differences in property abandonment, are the population developments. A report on property abandonment from the CLO (Compendium voor de Leefomgeving, translation: compendium for the living environment) shows that in areas of population decline, in particular in the province of Friesland, and parts of Groningen, Overijssel, Limburg and Brabant, the percentages of retail abandonment is higher than the national average (CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR, 2017). As mentioned before, West-Brabant has been considered the most vulnerable to population decline, followed by Southeast-Brabant. However, these explanations do not fully cover why Northeast Brabant has the lowest numbers or percentages of vacant properties and why Central Brabant has relative high percentages of property abandonment. Therefore, a relation could be expected between population decline and property abandonment.

When media reports about population decline, property abandonment is often used as a sign of vitality and viability of a village (Vermeer, 2009). Hospers (2010) describes that sometimes property abandonment and population decline can affect each other, but more when it comes to the mind than the factual numbers. He describes that when people are aware that the population in their region is

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15 shrinking, they see signs of population decline anywhere, while that may not necessarily be the case. It is interesting to include property abandonment in investigating the relation between population decline and social resilience. It is remarkable that there are differences between regions along these three indicators, where West-Brabant seems to be more struggling and Northeast-Brabant seems to be faring well. Though the connection between population decline and property abandonment is easily made, the relation between property abandonment and social resilience is a little less obvious.

1.3 Research objectives

In this section I am drawing the connections between the aforementioned concepts to formulate the research questions.

Social resilience relies heavily onto resources people have available. Especially if one is considering social resilience on community level, the resources that community has available matter. Properties are considered economic resources, or a reflection thereof. Empty or deserted buildings decrease values, not only of the buildings themselves, but also other buildings in the area. Furthermore, abandoned properties influence the ambiance and the experience of the street or neighborhood. Passers-by see a building that is behind in upkeep, empty, possibly boarded up and could feel less safe, or feel that the street is less attractive. Another important aspect of abandoned properties that is related to social resilience is that abandoned properties are often connected to crime. In particular agricultural abandonment is vulnerable for criminal activity, but it is not exclusive for agricultural properties. This vulnerability certainly adds to social resilience of either the individual or a community as a whole.

In times of population decline people feel like they have to rely on community more, but if that community is battling the negative consequences of population decline, which property abandonment is a reflection of, that trust may not be well placed. Based on these mechanisms, the research questions that are central in this thesis are deduced: “To what extent does population decline relate to social or

community resilience?” “And how does property abandonment affect this relationship?” and lastly, “To what extent do social capital, cohesion, social resilience and community resilience differ in Brabant?”

It is not my intention to predict the developments of the population, resilience or property abandonment in Brabant. My intention is to see how different factors relate to one another and where that leaves room for possible interventions or visions on how to approach the occasionally sensitive topics of population decline, resilience and property abandonment. An additional goal is to see if or how social capital, social resilience or community resilience can be approached or demarcated in a practical way based on the theoretical approaches.

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1.2 Scientific relevance

In this thesis I will be looking at population decline, social resilience and property abandonment through the lens of, among others, the transition theory as set forth by Wilson (2012). In this article he uses the transition theory to reason how globalization affects the resilience of communities, and seemingly the most articles who cite Wilson (2012), seem to apply the transition theory to the effects of climate change on local and regional communities, generally in the Global South (Dapilah, Nielsen & Friis, 2019; Davoudi et al, 2012; Gram-Hanssen, 2019; Skerat, 2013). Davoudi (et al., 2012) considers resilience as an incentive for a new approach to planning, as it rejects the blueprint planning in which regulations are strictly structured, but opens up an approach in which the coincidences, the nonlinearity and conflicting dynamics in society and beyond, can have a place. In other words resilience leaves room for flexibility, which can be helpful in tangled problems. In particular rural communities are a recurring theme in works related to Wilson (2012), as shown by research on rural places in Scotland (Skerratt, 2013; Markantoni et al., 2019). Markantoni et al. recommend stimulating community participation in order to enhance resilience. Most of these aforementioned articles touch upon important elements in this case, though none of them take population development into consideration, whereas this is a central concept in this thesis. Where climate change, environmental processes and even disasters can be taken as a context for social transformations, I think population decline fits in this theoretical framework as well. In other words, I make an effort to investigate to which extent the framework of the transition theory as described by Wilson (2012) could be applied to population decline.

Additionally, one of the difficulties I encountered from comparing the theoretical framework of Wilson (2012) with the Social Resilience Monitor (Dagevos et al, 2018) is that the concept of social resilience is quite vague. Though the theoretical definition is similarly formulated as ‘the ability of people and/or communities to handle changes and unexpected events’, it is a difficult and vague definition to really measure and apply in a practical way in policies. Skerratt (2013) recommends staying critical in using social resilience as a concept in order to improve it. Therefore I am not only looking at social resilience or community resilience, but keep an open mind to other, seemingly similar concepts, which mostly involve important social elements. By taking this critical approach, I aim to distinguish the theoretical and the practical usefulness of the term social resilience.

Furthermore, property abandonment is a very economic subject, in the manner that it is closely connected to economic losses, but also has its’ consequences for the social experience of the surroundings. For the urban geographers it is very interesting to study the social consequences of abandonment in cities and villages, but little research has been done on the relationship between property abandonment and social resilience, even though it often involves the loss of resources, ambiance or sociality of the surroundings. Therefore, I include property abandonment in this thesis, in

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17 order to explore the effects it could have on social resilience. In particular agricultural abandonment is gaining negative attention in the media, as it makes former farmers vulnerable to being involved in criminal activities.

Finally, I am using data from the Social Resilience Monitor (Dagevos et al., 2018) I referred to before. I do not intend to replicate this research, but I intend to enrich the data with additional data from the Central Bureau of Statistics concerning population decline, property abandonment and contexts of the regions where the respondents are from. By combining these data sources, I can look into relations which have not been taken into account in the original research which concerned the effect of many resources on self-, social and community resilience, while also relating to broad contexts.

Not often has research concerning population decline been done in an area that is not quite shrinking yet, but will in the near future. Most research concerning population decline has been done in areas that have been shrinking for a while, in an effort to identify pressing problems and an explanation to why it is shrinking. By doing this research before the decline really sets in, allows us to look at possible bottlenecks where problems might occur or increase in the future. The province of Brabant provides a unique case study in this sense, as there are already some regions that seem to be struggling with property abandonment and resilience more, namely West-Brabant, but there are also some regions that seem to struggle less, such as Northeast-Brabant. To be able to compare these regions within a provincial context, is a good addition to the knowledge that already exists on this type of population developments.

1.3 Social relevance

Population decline, social resilience or lack thereof and property abandonment are local problems that affect people on a personal level. Population decline causes worries about the future and the conservation of the quality of life whereas social resilience is seen as a requirement to maintain control over the circumstances people are living in. Abandoned vacant properties are often referred to as ‘rotten teeth’ and are often associated with crime (Vries, 2015; RTL Nieuws, 2019). When it is all taken in, it seems like tough times in Brabant. The province of Brabant has several programs to improve resilience or counteract property abandonment such as the social resilience program, the vacancy approach and a program that specifically concerns agricultural property abandonment. The Province is also aware of the population prognoses, but other than anticipating the changing housing needs and improving the atmosphere in order to stimulate people to stay (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2019), it does not seem that there are specific elements to invest time, money or effort in.

With this thesis I hope to provide some answers: whether there are relations between population decline and social resilience, what these relations look like, but also how they can aid in

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identifying either bottlenecks or ideas to improve resilience. Integral approaches are often desired and the Social Resilience Program of Brabant makes an effort to take this approach too. In the programs concerning property abandonment, I try to combine economic aspects with social aspects to see if that would be worth investing more in.

By taking different elements from different policy programs of the province in account, I hope to contribute to the integral approach as well, by also basing my conclusions on empirical support. The province of Brabant has their own research into the effectiveness of these programs, but by including different scalar indicators, I aim to not only look at Brabant in a provincial level, but also on individual, municipal or regional levels.

On the national level, politicians have a tendency to delegate the subject of population decline to governmental bodies on a more local level, while municipalities are often looking at higher governmental bodies in order to get a sense of direction for policies or alliances (Hospers, 2014). By creating more knowledge on the relations between population decline, social resilience and property abandonment, it may aid policy makers in shrugging off the feeling of impotency and stimulate them into taking action (Hospers, 2010).

Though this thesis focuses mainly on the province of Brabant, these struggles are certainly not unique to Brabant. Many regions in the Netherlands, as well as other nations, are struggling with population decline and property abandonment. This thesis could inspire research or policy measures to be instigated in other regions beyond Brabant.

In an open letter by Bettina Bock, a professor specializing in population decline, and representatives from the provinces who are already struggling with population decline, attention is drawn to the inequality between the Randstad, the economic and political center of the Netherlands, and the regions on the edges of the Netherlands (Bock et al., 2017). They are concerned that having an inequality in investments in growing vs shrinking regions will cause an inequality in resilience between those regions. The concern that population decline through lacking investments in their region, will affect people in their abilities and resources, is very important to keep in mind. By researching the possible relations, it may aid in the transition shaped by population decline, which aids policy makers in intervening in the right places to maintain the resilience of residents of areas with population decline either now, or in the future.

Lastly, resilience is a phenomenon that policy makers often deem important, but remains a vague concept. By looking further in the definition of social resilience, I hope to provide a clearer view on what social resilience actually is, or how similar concepts are related, so it could aid in expanding or narrowing them down.

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1.4 Readers guide

In the second chapter I further explicate the theories I think are relevant, namely the transition theory of Wilson which concerns resilience in the community throughout different transitions, such as changes in the demographic; and which is supplemented with theories concerning Social Capital theory from Bourdieu and Sampson, which concerns the influences of the societal structures and social environment on resources and consequently, resilience. In this chapter I also formulate hypotheses that will aid in answering the research questions formulated in the first chapter.

In the third chapter I introduce the data after which I operationalize population growth, several variables on resilience, property abandonment and resources, as well as control and context variables. I will also allude to the choices I made concerning the data, the operationalizations and missing values. In the fourth chapter the analysis will be shown and the results explained.

In the fifth chapter I make an effort to bring the thesis to a close by drawing conclusions on the results, answering the research questions, making some recommendations for further research and policies, and reflect on the research process, the shortcomings and the advances of this thesis.

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2. Theoretical framework

In this chapter I would like to introduce the theories that are at the basis of my understanding of the relations between population decline and social resilience, and how property abandonment connects to these concepts as well. I will explicate both the definitions of these terms and the expectations for the relationships between those terms. At the end of the chapter I will formulate concrete hypotheses, which are based on the transition theory as set forth by Wilson (2012), as well as the more practical statements from the Social Resilience monitor of Dagevos et al (2018). In particular the transition theory forms the base of the theoretical approach I will be maintaining in this case. Not only am I curious to see how the transition theory fits in the case of Brabant, it could also provide insight for the developments concerning population decline and social resilience. The theories concerning social capital will aid in defining social resilience. In this chapter there is also attention for past research concerning population decline and how property abandonment relate to both population decline and social resilience, based on the insights from, among others, Hospers (2010).

2.1 Transition theory

The transition theory as explicated by Wilson (2012) forms the base of the theoretical framework used in this thesis, to which other theories, research, definitions and operationalizations will be hung onto, as coats on a coat rack.

Wilson (2012) uses the transition theory as an approach to understand how changes in society can be understood, within the complex contexts on a local, regional, national and global level. In his 2012 article he uses the transition theory to look specifically at the relationship between globalization processes and community resilience, as the theory allows for looking more closely at resilience pathways at the community level. Pathways serve here as the conceptualization of the possible and potentialities, which will always be limited or liberated by the current organization of that community and the turn of events. In particular the relations on community resilience were what drew me in. Wilson views community resilience as the space at the intersection between social, economic and environmental capital, with social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. In this thesis Wilson serves as a theoretical inspiration, and the relevant concepts of social and community resilience will be derived from his article but amended with aid of other sources, among which is the Social Resilience Monitor of Dagevos et al. (2018), into concepts that fit the particular case of Brabant, Netherlands. In paragraph 2.1.2 I will further conceptualize the aforementioned two types of resilience.

The transition theory, according to Wilson (2012), can be summarized as the following: societies and communities continuously go through transitions of the organization of that community,

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21 which is influenced by contexts and factors on multiple scalar levels. One of those factors may very well be population decline, while social resilience is an expression of the state of the organization of that community.

2.1.1 Communities

In order to determine what community resilience is, it is smart to first demarcate what a community is so that it is clear what community resilience relates to.

Wilson (2012) considers communities as the totality of social system interactions within a defined geographical space, which is based on a definition by Cutter et al. (2008). This leaves room to consider groups that live within a somewhat demarcated geographical area, such as a city, a village or a region, but also less geographically-based groups, such as communities that are more internet-based. Wilson (2012) does not intend to fully define communities but opens the definition to a more fluid, hybrid consideration of communities.

A more elaborate definition of community, used for example in research concerning public health, is a group of people with different personalities that are connected by social ties, share common views and participate in collective activities that are more or less spatially demarcated (MacQueen et al., 2001). In this definition there is somewhat a hint of identity which is not found in Wilson’s definition, as Wilson refers to social system interactions, while MacQueen et al. (2001) refers to different personalities but common views, socially connected and participating.

Therefore I consider a community a group of individuals that form a whole by connecting through social ties, common views and collective (inter)action, identifying to a certain degree with that whole while remaining individuals who reside within a loosely defined geographical space. People can identify in stronger or lesser degrees with communities on different scalar levels. Some people identify strongly with their neighborhood, and to a lesser degree with Brabant, while still considering themselves a resident of Brabant.

One of the reasons that communities need to be demarcated is that there are differences between regions, or even within regions when it comes to population decline and resilience. Another reason is that the type of community people are considering themselves to be a part of influences their resilience. Rapaport et al. (2018) have looked into the relationship between different types of community and their resilience. When they compared urban, suburban and rural communities, they found that rural villages are generally better able to translate their social resources into perceived community resilience. Though they focus mostly at how communities would be able to bounce back from disasters, it is a remarkable find that rural communities seem to be more resilient. One of the causes they bring up, is the degree of social alienation in urban areas compared to rural settlements, where in cities people often lead strongly individualized lives, and in the rural settlements people look

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after one another (Rapaport et al., 2018). Population decline is said to be hitting the strongest in rural areas (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2017), which can either strengthen the need to rely on each other, or weaken the ties to the other community members.

2.1.2 Conceptualizing social and community resilience

The definition of social resilience used by Wilson (2012) is the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change (Adger, 2000, p. 347; as cited by Wilson, 2012). But social resilience is also considered both an outcome and a process; an outcome of improved adaptive capacities, and a process linked to changes over time that are associated with community learning and the willingness to take responsibility and control of their development pathways. In his article, Wilson only theorizes on the concepts of social resilience and community resilience but does not actually look for empirical support, in which case a further narrowing down of the definition is not a necessity. Though when the concept of social resilience needs to be empirically defined, it is too vague to come to precise indicators for social resilience based on this definition.

As mentioned before, resilience is about being able to handle change or sudden events, but to be able to consider someone socially resilient or to consider a community resilient, requires more aspects to be included in that definition. Both social and community resilient are often rooted in capital, abilities or resources, which I will expand upon in a later section. While social and community resilience seem similar, the distinctions matter, especially when the usefulness of social or community resilience is questioned. It could very well be that other similar concepts are better fit to define the state of the community, or even that elements that comprise social resilience individually form a strong explanation of differences between regions. Examples of those elements are social capital, experiencing cohesion or sense of connectedness. Bock (2016) mentions that the quality of life in a village or neighborhood is mostly reflected in the sense of community, participation and looking after one another.

In the Social Resilience monitor (Dagevos et al., 2018) social resilience is assumed to contain two elements: the abilities of people and communities to deal with changes and the access to resources they have. These abilities of people and communities to deal with change and unexpected events mostly come down to three forms of resilience: self-resilience, social resilience and community resilience. Self-resilience is defined as the extent in which individuals control their own life based on the personal resources. In other words, the extent in which people can rely on themselves and their own abilities and resources to deal with unexpected problems. Social resilience is defined as the extent in which individuals use or rely on their social networks to aid in the control of their own life. Community resilience is defined as the extent in which individuals expect and rely on people in their

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23 direct environment to tackle community problems, often in their direct environment such as the people in their neighborhood.

Communities can use resilience as an opportunity for change and development. Wilson (2012) describes community resilience as a search for maximum resilience, or multiple forms of resilience in the intersection of economic, social and environmental capital and forms of resilience. For him, the community aspect is included in the totality of the capitals, as these are considered to be pooled together. Community is also part of the social capital, as Wilson considers social capital to describe developments of the social, political and cultural networks in a community, including the ties between people to function as bonding, bridging and linking (Putnam, 2000). Granovetter (1973) theorized something different, arguing that the strength of ties is related to social cohesion overall, especially since both strong and weak ties are important. Strong ties imply trust and therefore allow for a pooling of resources, but weak ties bring new information in networks and access to new resources. Bonding and bridging are similar to strong and weak ties in that sense, though they imply a distinction based on characteristics. Putnam (2000) argues that people ‘bond’ with people who are similar to them in an important way, whereas bridges are formed with people that are not similar to them in an important way. These ties are often look into when studying ethnically diverse communities and their social capital, but can be taken into account in the case of operationalizing social cohesion and communities.

2.1.3 Capitals and resources

Wilson (2012) tries to be careful about not limiting social resilience to the set of capitals, which would make it a singular process instead of a multi-dimensional process. He talks about well-developed capital, and remarks simultaneously that having well-developed capital does not make a community automatically highly resilient, as there is always interplay between the different capitals, and these relationships can always change. The interconnectedness of capitals means that if there is a disturbance within one type of capital, it can cause a ripple effect to affect other types of capital, which in turn can reduce resilience. This interconnectedness is what makes resilience a multi-dimensional process.

The difficulty with operationalizing resilience based on different forms of capital and the interconnectedness between them, is that different forms of capital are not fully demarcated or mutually exclusive, which can make it difficult for policy makers and researchers to pinpoint exact indicators to analyze resilience. Additionally, by defining resilience as a combination of several elements, it is difficult to disentangle which elements matter more or less. Being connected and being able to identify with a community is something that seems to be incorporated in community resilience, but by including it in the definition it is impossible to figure out to what extent this matters in having access to resources. The situation is similar for elements such as experiencing cohesion and trust, or

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the feeling that people are able to solve problems together. Some elements of these capitals seem more internal affiliated, some are more external. A solution would be to try to pull apart some of these elements in the analysis, to see which elements matter more in considering social resilience.

In a case of losing a supermarket, a café or something similar, and the building becomes vacant, it is not only economic losses that are involved, it is also losing a bit of social capital, as in small villages these places often serve as a place of encounter as well. Hospers (2010) also brings this up as one of the reasons why residents of villages in shrinking areas can fight against the disappearance of the local supermarket. In the text box on the right is the case of Langenboom described, that illustrates how this loss is experienced, but also what solution is offered to resolve this, and how resources and social resilience are intertwined.

The base of our current knowledge and definitions of the different forms of capital mostly originates from Bourdieu (1986). He argued that economic capital is over emphasized due to the discrepancy between the visible, obvious economic transactions and the invisible or non-transparent economic actions, such as labor, which is often not sufficiently taken into account. He proposed three key capitals: economic capital, often operationalized as material property; social capital, often operationalized as networks of social connections and mutual obligations; and cultural capital, often operationalized as prestige. After a while, social capital has been expanded to incorporate all non-monetized characteristics of cultural capital, social networks, power, interconnectedness, trust and bonds (Bodin and Crona, 2008), which is why Wilson did not incorporate cultural and political capital in his theoretical framework of social resilience, but rather

Langenboom, a village in Northeast-Brabant

struggling with population decline and brain drain. After a supermarket and a local café had to close their doors, the residents came together to find a way to maintain a place of social encounter that is also maintainable, as the café and supermarket obviously were not. They are proposing two different spaces of encounter: one is in and around the local church, serving as an extended living room for the community, meant for social and cultural activities. The second one is in the sport park, where everybody can play sport, and all associations can meet and deepen their co-operations. By creating these places of encounter, they hope to accommodate everyone while maintaining a sense of social cohesion and connectedness to the village (Eigen Kweek, n.d.). Not only social capital is involved here, economic and cultural capital are as well.

When the residents encountered a problem, they tried to handle it together. They brought a group of people together who all bring in their own expertise. Some people are more politically involved, so these are the ones in charge of maintaining relations with the municipality. Others have more knowledge on the financial aspects of the project, or designing, etcetera. This seems like the epitome of a more resilient community through the pooling of the resources they have and the interplay between them. They do not only create spaces of encounter, they also work together to make their houses sustainable and saving up money along the way (Vermeeren & Van der Plas, 2019).

Figure 3: Illustration of the plans around the church of Langenboom. Reprinted from Eigenkweeklangenboom.nl (n.d.)

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25 considered social capital as the umbrella under which cultural and political capital could be placed. Wilson uses social capital to describe the level of development of social, cultural and political networks in a community.

In the course of time Bourdieu’s notion of economic capital has also been expanded. In addition to forms of transactions in trade, nowadays economic capital also includes all human facets associated with the use and generation of financial capital, such as the value of the properties of a community. This expansion of the definition of economic capital and along with that the increased importance of economic capital caused critical commentators to argue that economic indicators have been playing too big a role in determining community resilience (Wilson, 2012).

In the Social Resilience Monitor, Dagevos et al. (2018) do not use the same distinction between capital and resources as Wilson (2012) does. They distinguish personal, social and environmental-in meaning of surroundings- resources, as opposed to social, political and environmental. This approach is more aimed at policy makers than the definitions used by Wilson, which is not strange as Wilson took a more theoretical approach with his article, as opposed to Dagevos’ empirical approach to resilience. Therefore the definitions of Dagevos et al. (2018) are much more practical: personal resources are based on Bourdieu’s idea of human capital and entail personal skills and trust in their own abilities, such as the action radius and educational attainment. Social resources are based on contacts, network and participation, which is closely connected to Bourdieu’s idea of social capital. Environmental resources comprise the resources available in their surroundings, such as the level services and characteristics of the neighborhood. As opposed to Wilson, their idea of resilience is not based on the interconnectedness and development of these resources but rather that these resources are all related to each other and to resilience. These resources can be used to increase resilience, or when they are lacking, they decrease resilience.

In this reasoning they make two assumptions. The first assumption is that there is a consistence and cohesion between the different resources and in certain situations these resources would be interchangeable and therefore could compensate for each other. This assumption fits with Wilsons reasoning for social resilience, where he argues that the optimal resilience can be found in the intersection of well-developed economic, social and environmental capital. Disruptions or developments in one type of capital influences the other types of capital, therefore a strong consistence or cohesion between the capitals is assumed. The second assumption is that the behavior of people is decided through a combination of capacities, motivation and occasion in which the circumstances constrain or encourage said behavior.

Wilson reasons something similar, though not for people but for communities, namely that there are pathways which are understood as “the sum total of individual, household or group actions associated with economic, social and environmental capital that define the position of a community in

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the spectrum of weak and strong resilience” (Wilson, 2012, p. 1224). In other words, the behavior of people within that community will be influenced by economic, social and cultural capital and constrained or encouraged by those contexts. Pathways are not linear or a singularity. A community will lose and gain resilience continuously, as these communities will constantly be influenced by different contests, or events with different consequences in mixed forms.

One of the regional developments that is affecting the, in particular economic, resources of communities, is the increase in property abandonment. Property abandonment is often thought to be related to less immediately visible issues in society, such as demographic developments, neglect of the neighborhood or criminality (Benneworth & Velderman, 2016; CBS, PBL, RIVM & WUR, 2017; de Vries, 2015). Furthermore, because abandonment is such a visible phenomenon, it speaks to the mind of the residents in the neighborhood, influencing the livability in the neighborhood and village (VNG, 2011), and thus has its social consequences. In particular in western regions of Brabant, the property abandonment rate is persistent for retail, offices, industrial and social properties, in both absolute and relative numbers (Provincie Brabant, n.d.). However, the type of property abandonment that worries the policy makers in Brabant the most, is agricultural abandonment as that has been more and more connected to drug-related criminality (RTL Nieuws, 2019; Brabants Dagblad, 2019). At the same time, agricultural abandonment is expected to increase. Between 2012 and 2017 one out of five farms in Brabant quit their business, which was a larger amount than expected (Gies & Naeff, 2019). Though not all of those farms are abandoned, it is expected that when more farms will stop their businesses, a larger percent will become vacant. Those are also the most at risk for economic losses and subsequently vulnerable for criminal activities. Property abandonment is thus associated with economic resources and economic losses, which in turn is said to be influencing social resilience. Though Wilson defines social resilience as the intersection between capitals, I think it is not viable to empirically underline that statement. Therefore I disentangle different types of resources in the capitals they represent, such as property abandonment as an example of a more community based economic capital.

2.1.4 Population decline as context

In this thesis I am looking at population developments as contexts for pathways of resilience. Population development of growth and decline could be considered working in transitions. The current prognoses for the Dutch society as a whole, and for regions such as West-Brabant or Brabant as a whole, is that the aging demographic will be more prominent and after 2030 the population decline will set in (Provincie Noord-Brabant, 2017). This may very well be a key stage of change and might be the starting point for the next transition. Those transitions are said to be occurring within the contexts of local, regional, national and global developments, which makes the transitions difficult to indicate

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27 and interpret. In this section I am providing theoretical contexts for population decline to serve as a context for pathways.

In his book “Krimp” (transl: shrinkage), Gert-Jan Hospers (2010) offers a few arguments that underline the idea that population decline could be a factor in rethinking or reorganizing communities or even regions as a whole. Though Hospers (2010) mostly aims to offer ideas and arguments on how to improve policies or ways of thinking about population decline, these recommendations raise a couple points about the transitions communities go through in facing population decline. These arguments center around a change in perspective: when it is untenable to maintain services such as a supermarket, a doctor or a school within the boundaries of the village, there are a couple elements that need changing. On the one hand, it is a call for broadening the idea of what acceptable distances are: having to travel a couple of extra kilometers is not the end of the world, especially not when in the rural or least densely populated areas, residents generally have at least one car. In the Netherlands the distances will always be relatively short compared to other countries like Germany or France. When talking about the consequences of population decline, the increase in distances is an element that worries residents for maintaining their resilience, in particular when keeping those who are less mobile in mind: the young, the old and the disabled people.

On the other hand, it is a call for rethinking structures in which the society is organized. In rethinking structures, Hospers (2010) mostly means rethinking the structural elements such as rules and regulations. The Dutch society is well organized in the sense that nearly everything that concerns public services is locked into regulations, which could be restricting the possibilities to make these services more tenable in times of population decline (Hospers, 2010). Hospers (2010) uses the example of schools, where everything from the building requirements to the times the school starts, is registered and unnegotiable. A bit more flexibility in those rules could lead to more sustainable solutions, such as the Finnish example, where in sparsely populated areas, parents, teachers and policy makers together look into the most convenient solutions to provide the best possible education for the children (Hospers, 2010). Rethinking regulations and structures could lead to people being more confident in handling difficult situations or disruptive events, as they would be able to find a solution together. Haartsen and Venhorst (2010) sees that the main recent reaction of policy makers is a turnaround from planning for quantity to quality is gaining momentum, and though it is a more positive strategy for dealing with population decline, it is not enough. Haartsen and Venhorst recommend also thinking about alternative ways of financing local governments or services.

In treating population decline as context for social transformation and connecting it to social resilience, it allows for concretizing the consequences of population decline in a new way. Population decline is the result of changes in demographics such as the decrease of fertility rates and the increase of divorces, which affects the ageing of the demographics (Haartsen & Venhorst, 2010). Where these

RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF POPULATION DECLINE. CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIONS BETWEEN POPULATION DECLINE, SOCIAL RESILIENCE AND THE ROLE OF PROPERTY ABANDONMENT IN THE PROVINCE OF BRABANT