Renewable Energy on Bonaire
An interdisciplinary analysis of the renewable energy transition on Bonaire
ABSTRACT -‐ In this research the transition to renewable energy sources (RES) on Bonaire is analysed to identify the difficulties and advantages faced by a small isolated community during such a transition. Bonaire shares many characteristics with other islands that make it suitable for the implementation of RES. To identify the problems and deal with the complex nature of transitions in general, the interdisciplinary approach of transition management is used. Transitions can only be steered and analysed by considering all levels of decision-‐making. From studies on transition management, several domains were identified where problems frequently arise during a transition. The main obstructions faced by Bonaire are conflict with external parties, uneven distribution of costs and benefits and difficulties related to realizing long-‐term goals. These obstructions are linked to lack of available human capital, poverty and economic inequality and political myopia respectively. On the other hand, the fire in 2004 releasing Bonaire from its fossil-‐fuel lock-‐in and the overarching long-‐term influence from the Dutch government are island-‐specific factors that have a positive influence on the transition to RES. It is concluded that difficulties and advantages arise from factors present in most communities. Future research can aim to extrapolate the findings from this research to similar islands.
Course: Interdisciplinary Project
Students: Bart Sweerts, Niels Heining and Jasper Steenvoorden Tutor: Jaap Rothuizen
Expert supervisor: Alison Gilbert Date: 22-‐05-‐2016
Table of contents
1. Introduction ... 3
2. Transition management and RES strategies ... 4
2.1 Transition management ... 4
2.2 RES strategies based on EnergyPLAN ... 6
3. Methods and interdisciplinarity of energy transitions ... 6
4. The move to a sustainable energy future ... 7
4.1 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) implementation ... 8
4.2 Energy Efficiency ... 9
4.3 Energy Savings ... 9
5. Important decisions for a self sufficient renewable energy system ... 10
5.1 Strategic level ... 10
5.2 Tactical level ... 10
5.3 Operational level ... 11
6. Problems during the management of societal change ... 12
6.1 Financial conflict with the energy producer ... 12
6.2 Controversy about the price of energy ... 13
6.3 The role of the Dutch government in stimulating short-‐term steps ... 14
6.4 The release from -‐and avoidance of a lock-‐in situation ... 15
6.5 The risk of a small political body ... 15
7. Conclusion ... 16
1. Introduction
Bonaire is one of five islands that form the Netherlands Antilles, located in the Caribbean Sea. With a population of only 18,500 and an area of 294 square kilometres (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek [CBS], 2016), it is the least densely populated island in the Netherlands Antilles. As a special municipality of the Netherlands, Bonaire’s governing institutions are largely organized by the Netherlands. Furthermore, Bonaire is part of a group of islands named Small Island Developing States (SIDS). These islands are low-‐lying nations that face similar problems regarding their isolated location, limited natural and human resources and ecological vulnerability (Wong, 2011).
One of the major challenges that many of these SIDS face is their precarious energy management strategy. Weisser (2004) states that they often rely heavily on imported fossil fuel for their energy production, their remote location and small-‐scale consumption making this a costly way of producing energy. This, in combination with oil price fluctuations, causes a large and volatile financial drain.
Bonaire seeks a solution to this problem by the implementation of renewable energy sources (RES). This form of domestic energy production will limit the dependency on the costly and fluctuating fossils fuels, enhancing Bonaire’s independence and options for development. Furthermore, it lowers emissions and puts a lower stress on natural ecosystems, which play a major role in attracting tourists. Additionally, several studies show natural conditions on small islands are often suitable for renewable energy production, especially in the form of wind or solar farms (Kaldellis et al., 2001; Monteira Alves et al., 2000).
Bonaire is currently a leader in the Caribbean in the use of RES, especially wind energy (National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL], 2015). However, a large-‐scale transition to a different energy source inevitably comes with complications and resistance, illustrated by the lack of RES on most similar islands. For this reason, Bonaire provides an interesting case study regarding the possible transition to RES on SIDS or other remote and vulnerable communities. Examining the situation on Bonaire may help to identify the difficulties faced during a transition to RES. From this, the main research question follows:
“How has Bonaire managed its transition to renewable energy sources and what are the difficulties and opportunities faced by the island during this transition?”
2. Transition management and RES strategies 2.1 Transition management
Before the study of transition management can be used in this research, understanding its conceptual model and the meaning of transitions in general are of utmost importance. In the case of this chapter, transition management will be treated from a RES transition perspective.
According to the Nationaal Milieubeleidsplan 4 (2008), a transition is a gradual process of societal change in which a society or an important subsystem of a society undergoes significant structural changes. These societal changes are a result of interactions between developments such as changes in energy prices and policy acts that may sustain and reinforce each other. However, transitions cannot be caused by a single variable such as a price change. Rather, they are the result of continuous developments in various domains: economy, technology, ecology, institutions, culture and paradigms (Kemp & Loorbach, 2003).
Consequently, transition management is the way in which transitions are steered towards a desired outcome. In order for this to happen, Loorbach (2004) proposes a multi-‐level governance that works through the interactions of what he calls the strategic level, tactical level and operational level. Firstly, at the strategic level of transition management, processes of vision development, strategic discussions and long-‐term goal formulation are important. It is in this phase of transition management that changes in thinking about the current situation are set in motion, with the vision of a desired outcome as a result. Regarding RES transitions, an aspiration to achieve 100% RES in 50 years from now may be an example of a strategic level process.
Secondly, on a tactical level, activities of negotiating, networking, coalition building and agenda building are priority. Here, it is discussed how and what is needed in order for a RES transition to occur. Changes in market structure, creation of coordinating bodies and changing policies are but a few examples of activities occurring on a tactical level.
Lastly, on an operational level, processes of experimenting, project building and implementation are main activities. In this phase, all things that have been proposed in the strategic and tactical level will be applied (Kemp et al., 2007). In the case of a RES transition, this may imply substitution of fossil fuel based energy sources for RES, analysing the potential of certain forms of RES and increasing society’s knowledge on RES, energy efficiency and sustainability through seminars or publicity campaigns.
Within the multi-‐level governance as proposed by Loorbach (2004), these processes are aligned by a combination of governance, self-‐organization and process management. As a result,
at each level, multiple types of actors, such as the inhabitants themselves are needed, as transitions result from the interaction between actors on multiple levels (Loorbach, 2004).
However, Kemp et al. (2007) state a number of problems related to the variety of actors involved in a transition and are often faced when managing processes of societal change: dissent, distributed control, determination of short-‐term steps, danger of lock-‐in and political myopia. Although these are common problems in any type of steering, Kemp et al. (2007) state that the unconventionality of transition management is that it tries to deal with them in an integrated way.
Dissent is often present in dealing with complex societal problems such as RES transitions, as different people have different perspectives on the situation and/or problems and how to deal with them. However, there may still be possibilities to reach common ground on the future of a RES system. For example, even though there are mixed opinions on the eventual impact of a RES transition in a specific society, it is generally still accepted that RES are reliable, affordable and produce low amounts of CO2 (Kemp et al., 2007). Dissent often results from the second mentioned problem of distributed control. In multifaceted societies, control can mostly not be exercised from the top alone. Instead, it is distributed over a variety of actors with different beliefs, interests and resources (Kemp et al., 2007).
Thirdly, there is often ambiguity about how short-‐term steps will achieve a long-‐term goal. As a result, this often results in problems for policy-‐makers, as there is little theory on this (Kemp et al., 2007). Kemp et al. (2007) therefore propose a strategy that involves forward and backwards reasoning. Consequently, this results in activities of trend analysis and forecasting in forwards reasoning, while backwards reasoning may help in identifying strategic experiments that may help set goals for new socio-‐technical systems.
Furthermore, there is a problem that is defined as danger of lock-‐in. According to Kemp et al. (2007), this problem means that there is always a danger that a society gets locked into a suboptimal situation due to the fact that better solutions were not present at the start of the transition. An example of this is the fossil-‐fuel based energy system. Even though fossil-‐fuels are not an optimal long-‐term solution, RES transitions are now hard to realise in many societies as infrastructure, regulation and institutions have long been optimized for the use of fossil-‐fuels instead of RES (Kemp et al., 2007).
Lastly, there is a problem of political myopia or near-‐sightedness. Geels (2005) finds that transitions in societies take more than one generation and consequently stretch over various political cycles. Transition management has to be able to deal with these short-‐term changes in political systems. As a result, the long-‐term results of a transition to RES have to be made clear so that policy-‐makers and politicians are convinced that a transition like this needs fundamental change and time (Kemp et al., 2007).
2.2 RES strategies based on EnergyPLAN
The EnergyPLAN energy system analysis is in its core a computer model that simulates the operation of national energy systems on an hourly basis and includes a variety of parameters such as electricity, heating, cooling, industry and transport sectors (Department of Development and Planning Aalborg University, 2016). However, according to Lund & Münster (2003), the main purpose of the EnergyPLAN model is to design suitable national energy planning strategies by analysing the consequences of different national energy investments. As a result, Lund (2007) discusses the perspective of RES in the making of strategies for sustainable development. It was found out that such strategies typically involve major technological changes in three domains: RES implementation, energy efficiency and energy savings. In the case of RES implementation, it is here that fossil-‐fuel based energy production has to be replaced by various RES. Energy efficiency involves both improvements in the producing and consuming sector, while energy savings are required only from the demanding side (Lund, 2007).
3. Methods and interdisciplinarity of energy transitions
The concept of interdisciplinarity is, despite its universality and complexity, a term that turned many educators, practitioners and researchers towards work in order to accomplish objectives of answering complex questions, addressing broad issues and solving problems that are beyond the scope of one discipline (Klein, 1990).
According to Palm and Thollander (2010), energy and energy transitions are especially interdisciplinary. It involves many stakeholders, actors, producers and users and thus disciplines to be able to determine a society’s ability to create long-‐term sustainable energy systems. On the one hand, energy production, use and efficiency have to be increased on the producing side. On the other hand, shifting energy systems towards greater sustainability also requires a ‘transformation’ in the behaviour, values and routines of users to conserve energy. Therefore, the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) states that it is a never-‐ending process of social change, involving multiple transitions made up of processes of coevolution involving changes in needs, wants, institutions, culture and practices.
Subsequently, a transformation like this can be facilitated by a variety of activities, such as through policy means and government initiatives in the form of taxation, subsidies, information campaigns and energy guidance, but also through studies on the technological innovations required to efficiently develop the energy sector and reduce ecological stress (Palm & Thollander, 2010). As a result, energy transitions include the cooperation of a variety of
disciplines such as politics, economy, ecology and technology to be able to reach a desired sustainable outcome.
Kemp et al. (2007, 2010) find that an important factor in the success of an energy transition is the suitability of the energy system for the implementation of RES. Furthermore, site-‐specific benefits and problems concerning the projected change play a vital role in the eventual success of the transition. It is therefore key to get a clear image of the current energy production system and to understand sufficiently how and through the interactions of which actors and stakeholders the energy system on Bonaire works.
Lund (2007) uses a structured analysis of the energy production of a community to identify its suitability for a transition to RES. This analysis discusses current implementation of RES, energy-‐use efficiency, possible energy savings and the presence of integrated energy systems. Furthermore, from a social and political point of view, Kemp (2007), Loorbach (2004) and Rotmans (2001) have done extensive research on transition management. Loorbach (2004) proposes a multi-‐level approach, identifying a number of political, technical and economic problems that may arise during a transition. Combining the analysis of the current situation with the multi-‐level transition approach results in an interdisciplinary research identifying the factors that play a role in the success of the energy transition on Bonaire. This fits in a larger discussion on how small communities like SIDS can be aided in their transition to a more renewable energy production.
This research starts by assessing the three technological changes proposed by Lund (2007) in the case of Bonaire. It goes on to discuss the different levels of decision-‐making identified by Loorbach (2004) that are necessary to manage a transition. Finally, the problem domains found by Kemp (2007) are applied to Bonaire to identify difficulties faced during the transition and find their underlying cause.
A major limitation of the research is lack of local data, since visiting the island is not an option. For this reason, most information is derived from literary sources from scientific and governmental sources. Secondly, an interview conducted with Roy Silberie, an employee at the Water en EnergieBedrijf (WEB), provides additional but possibly subjective information.
4. The move to a sustainable energy future
In this chapter, the current RES situation of Bonaire will be described by using the three major technological changes for sustainable development of RES implementation, energy efficiency and energy savings as suggested by Lund (2007). By doing this, it endeavours to provide a clear overview of what is different on Bonaire as compared to other islands in the case of its RES situation and how this is realised.
4.1 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) implementation
Bonaire is currently a leader in wind-‐power use in the Caribbean, with approximately 33% of their energy consumption coming from self-‐produced wind energy (NREL, 2015). Furthermore, according to Roy Silberie, Bonaire even reached an average of 42% RES in their yearly energy production of 2015 with peaks of 70% at times of high wind speed.
According to Renewable Energy Caribbean (2015), the 2004 fire that destroyed the central diesel generator that produced 70% of the energy on the island was the major event that provided the opportunity for Bonaire to develop a renewable electricity system. As according to Roy Silberie, drinking water is also produced with the energy and heat provided by the destroyed diesel generators, he stated it was of utmost importance for the inhabitants that this loss of production capacity was solved as quickly and efficiently as possible. Consequently, due to cooperation between electricity distributor WEB, electricity producer ContourGlobal, the Dutch government and the local community, the water and electricity problem was solved and the switch to a RES system was made possible (Renewable Energy Caribbean [REC], 2015).
In addition to that, Schep et al. (2012) conclude that Bonaire’s ecosystems are by far the most important economic value to the island, and as a result, WEB in cooperation with ContourGlobal have piloted a solar energy project on the island to promote the ecologically responsible RES and thus ecotourism even more (Curacao Chronicle, 2014). Furthermore, Roy Silberie mentioned that this community solar-‐garden project is mainly directed at reducing economic inequality. This will be achieved by WEB by bearing the operational costs of the solar garden, allowing underprivileged local inhabitants to participate in the production and acquisition of renewable energy due to the fact that they are alleviated from the financial burden of maintenance costs and distribution losses. However, it was concluded that the 2014 launched solar-‐powered pilot plant that, as stated by InfoBonaire (2015), facilitates electricity for 70 households on Bonaire with 792 solar panels, is currently not as efficient as wind and fossil-‐fuel based energy. On the other hand, WEB did state that this project was a good opportunity to gain experience with solar energy and to identify the constraints and possibilities of this source of renewable energy on Bonaire for future use (interview Roy Silberie, WEB).
Moreover, in the case of Bonaire, algae-‐produced biofuels may prove as an interesting option to increase the overall percentage of RES on the island as the climatic conditions for algae growth seem ideal due to the high temperatures and sun hours throughout the year. WEB seeks to implement this technology to completely fuel its electricity generators, and as a result, provide 55-‐60% of the island’s energy requirements through this technology in an optimal situation (NREL, 2015). In order to achieve this, the seaside ponds on the islands that were formerly used for salt production would be adapted to algae production. However, the NREL (2015) states that large-‐scale production of biofuels on the island is expected to take significant
time and effort. A further literature research, as well as exploring currently active commercial algae farms, can assist Bonaire in implementation of algae as biofuel producers. Recently, a research team from the University of Wageningen has renewed their interest in studying how algae biofuel production on Bonaire can be implemented.
4.2 Energy Efficiency
One of the main discussion points in renewable energy is the requirement for back-‐up systems. Due to the variable nature of most RES (especially wind and solar energy), power sources capable of adjusting directly to the energy need have to be present. However, this inevitably causes redundancy in capacity and increased overall cost of production. Therefore, it is important to calculate optimal ratios between variable renewable energy sources and quickly responding and dependable generators (Deshmukh & Deshmukh, 2008; Packey et al, 1995).
In the case of Bonaire, this has resulted in an energy production capacity consisting of 33% wind energy and 67% heavy-‐fuel generators (NREL, 2015). Future plans aim to cut the fuel-‐generator part to 55-‐60% and produce the remainder with a mixture of wind and solar power. Coupled with the fact that wind energy can currently provide up to 70% of the energy requirements, it can be concluded that Bonaire has a significant energy production overcapacity. Nevertheless, plans have been proposed to deal with this issue. Hall & Bain (2008) state that a major strategy to deal with variable RES production is to develop ways to store the energy. One proposed way to achieve this is to pump water into basins located in the mountainous north-‐ western part of Bonaire using excess wind energy production. When the energy is needed, it can be harvested by the use of hydropower generators (interview Roy Silberie, WEB). This strategy is already implemented on the Canary island El Hierro, and as a result, this provides an excellent case study of this technique for Bonaire (Godina et al., 2015).
Furthermore, Bonaire faces another significant challenge with respect to energy efficiency. Where other communities or countries can easily exchange energy to cover some of the production variability, Bonaire's remote location makes this impossible. In the case of Bonaire, this has resulted in the N-‐2 strategy. This strategy demands that energy production must still be sufficient when the two largest energy-‐producing units are out of order (interview Roy Silberie, WEB).
4.3 Energy Savings
Energy savings policies on Bonaire have not yet been implemented directly in a national framework. However, this is where the concept of energy literacy proves to be interesting. The
U.S Department of Energy (2011) state that schooling inhabitants is important, as understanding present renewable energy and sustainability concepts is key for individuals and communities to make more informed energy decisions in the future, such as making more conscious use of energy. As a result of its potential positive influence, energy literacy will be assessed in more detail in the tactical level paragraph in the next chapter.
5. Important decisions for a self-‐sufficient renewable energy system
Loorbach (2004) proposed a multi-‐level governance that works through the interaction of the strategic level, tactical level and operational level. In the theory chapter it is explained what these different levels imply. In this chapter, several different processes that are currently active on these levels will be explained in more detail for the case of RES implementation on Bonaire. 5.1 Strategic level
RES have been implemented on Bonaire for roughly two decades and many of the strategic level processes originate from when RES was first to be implemented on a large scale after the 2004 fire. In the case of Bonaire, these processes were straightforward, as the island's government wanted not only to restore the capacity to normal, but also to produce 100% renewable energy (Bunker, 2015). Furthermore, according to Roy Silberie, as all costs of the 2004 fire were insured, the island could work with the so called “Greenfield Method”, which implies that there is no need to work within the constraints of existing energy infrastructure. With this in mind, the island started developing policies and reaching agreements to be able to achieve their aspirations for a 100% renewable Bonaire.
5.2 Tactical level
Bonaire is one of three islands that are a special municipality of the Kingdom of the Netherlands since 2010, and thus its governing authorities are largely organized by the Kingdom of the Netherlands (Rijksdienst Caribisch Nederland, 2016). As a result, many of the policies and regulations are partly influenced by the Dutch government.
One of the main regulatory developments from the Dutch government in 2014 has been the establishment of a framework for distributed generation, allowing customers to interconnect their own generation systems to the grid. This may potentially make RES in the form of solar and wind a more efficient and affordable way of energy consumption for those with the capability to invest in it (Rijksdienst Caribisch Nederland, 2014a; Tweede Kamer der Staten-‐Generaal, 2014). As Bonaire is characterized by high amounts of sun hours and considerable and consistent wind speeds, De Tweede Kamer (vergaderjaar 2014-‐2015) states that this potential for renewable
energy production must be utilized. This significantly increases the accessibility of individual energy production. Furthermore, for a corresponding fee, the Water-‐ en EnergieBedrijf Bonaire (WEB) allows individually generated electricity to be sold back to the general net. In this way, the WEB net functions as a storage unit thus eliminating one of the main problems associated with individual energy production.
Moreover, Scholengemeenschap Bonaire (SGB), Bonaire’s comprehensive school, and WEB are starting to work together to increase the knowledge and awareness about the positive effect that RES may have on the long-‐term socio-‐economic development of Bonaire (Rijksdienst Caribisch Nederland, 2014b). Doing so is important, as according to Roy Silberie from WEB, most of the local inhabitants are currently more interested in low energy and water prices rather than renewable energy systems. This is not completely illogical considering that electricity and water are the highest fixed costs on Bonaire and partly renewable energy systems are less affected by lowering oil prices and thus lower energy costs.
An example of the results of increased awareness and knowledge of energy, according to the U.S Department of Energy (2011), is the ability to reduce domestic household energy use. This may increase quality of life in the form of increased economic and environmental security, reduced environmental risks and monetary savings, which then again may be used for socio-‐ economic development in societies such as on Bonaire.
5.3 Operational level
Lastly, on an operational level, processes of experimenting, project building and implementation are main activities. In the case of Bonaire, some of the activities that have been done have on an operational level have already been mentioned and include the solar power-‐plant, decentralized energy production, algae biofuel production and community energy literacy.
As RES such as wind and solar are extremely weather dependent, it is important to assess the potential for other sustainable sources of energy to increase the percentage of RES on Bonaire. As a result, a project was started to adapt the seaside ponds formerly used for salt production to algae biofuel production to exploit the ideal climatic conditions of high temperatures and sun hours throughout the year (NREL, 2015). However, regardless of the fact that is an innovative way of increasing the RES percentage on the island, developing a plan and a facility that can produce biofuel on Bonaire requires between three to five years of research and development (Power Engineering International, 2010).
Moreover, the 2014 regulations that allowed decentralized production are another interesting process of experimenting in which the implementation of RES on privately owned
properties would be able to increase the total RES mix of Bonaire while also improving social cohesion and economic development by the reduction of energy costs on the island (REC, 2015). The solar power-‐plant is another initiative by WEB to analyse the feasibility of solar energy on the island as opposed to wind energy, which is now the more favourable RES. What is even more interesting is that, according to the Curacao Chronicle (2014), this project is mainly aimed by WEB to increase solidarity in the local community. By centrally generating solar-‐ energy, WEB stated that if feasible, it will benefit all Bonaire residents rather than only inhabitants with the capability to invest in privately owned solar panels.
Lastly, a good example of transition management on an operational level is the current cooperation between WEB and SGB that was briefly mentioned in the previous chapter. In this cooperation, WEB and SGB concluded an agreement in which a pilot project for solar energy on the roofs of the school will be conducted. Furthermore, WEB and SGB will start working together to teach students about the possibilities and constraints of renewable energy in general and particularly on Bonaire (Rijksdienst Caribisch Nederland, 2014b).
6. Problems during the management of societal change
As was mentioned in the introductory chapter on transition management, Kemp et al. (2007) stated there are generally five problems that arise when managing processes of societal change: dissent, distributed control, determination of short-‐term steps, danger of lock-‐in and political myopia. In the case of Bonaire, several problems have been identified that have arisen during the transition to a more RES energy system. In this chapter, these problems will be dealt with by using the previously mentioned five problems as a framework to do so.
6.1 Financial conflict with the energy producer
In the case of Bonaire, there have been a variety of issues with dissent that have periodically inhibited the implementation of RES on the island. An important issue regarding energy production on Bonaire was a dilatory conflict between WEB, the energy distributor and Ecopower, the producer of energy on Bonaire that was acquired by ContourGlobal in 2013 (Van Buiren and Van Halderen, 2013; Mazars, 2015). WEB hesitated to pay for increased energy prices caused by increased world oil prices. Ecopower argued that they were allowed to do this based on a power purchase agreement (PPA) made in 2007. Van Buiren and Van Halderen (2013) state that the management of WEB in times of the negotiations around the PPA was not capable. The intention of WEB during the negotiation was that energy cost price was fixed, but because of mismanagement this did not end up in the final agreement with Ecopower. Consequently, WEB lost the trial in 2012 and has to pay since then the real
production costs of energy, compensated for world oil price fluctuations. Besides that, WEB had to pay Ecopower extra costs up to 10 million USD, due to technical complications.
As a result, the financial stability of WEB decreased significantly and an unstable continuity was created. To compensate for the financial drain, electricity costs for Bonaire’s households had to rise sharply. This was seen as undesirable and the Dutch ministry of economic affairs provided a temporary financial contribution to WEB. Furthermore, the Dutch government started a pilot for effective regulation of the energy sector on Bonaire and the board of WEB was replaced (Mazars, 2015).
Although the aid by the Dutch government mitigated the predicted increase in household’s energy prices and stabilized WEB’s financial position, the mismanagement by WEB caused a delay in the implementation of RES. The opportunistic view of the former WEB board, that promised decreasing energy prices combined with a higher share of RES, lead to a lack of quality in governance. Decisions were made in support of unrealistic goals and contained risks for the continuity of the company. External advisors warned for the consequences of these decisions, but the advice was not used in the decision-‐making processes (Van Buiren and Van Halderen, 2013).
6.2 Controversy about the price of energy
As Kemp et al. (2007) stated, control is distributed over a variety of actors with different beliefs, interests and resources. Consequently, a process that has been subject to various problems is the price of energy on Bonaire over time.
For example, despite the fact that the 2014 regulations that allowed decentralized production looked like a win-‐win situation in which the implementation of RES on privately owned properties would increase the total RES mix of Bonaire while also improving social cohesion and economic development by the reduction of energy costs on the island (REC, 2015), in practice this came with a variety of complications. As according to Bergenhenegouwen & Beuningen (2012), the costs that WEB makes on maintaining the grid and distribution are currently shared by all consumers from the centralized grid. An increase in decentralization would mean that the people that were not able to invest in privately owned RES in the first place and are still on the centralized grid will have to pay even more for their energy, increasing economic inequality. Furthermore, a second complication is that peak demand always has to be able to be produced by diesel generators in case that the weather does not allow wind and solar energy to produce enough to deliver peak demand. These costs will also have to be paid by the people without the money to invest in solar energy and compromise the percentage of RES in the energy mix. Lastly, WEB is known to have a minimum-‐purchasing obligation with
ContourGlobal and as a result, too much decentralized production will only lead to a loss of turnover for the company (Bergenhenegouwen & Beuningen, 2012). Consequently, implementation of RES as a result of energy price is indeed a trade-‐off between the wants, needs and capabilities of different actors and stakeholders. Therefore, it is important to find a balance between stimulating decentralized production through the option of selling to the net and avoiding a situation where investment in the more efficient centralized wind and solar farms are disproportionately discouraged. ‘Economies of scale’ is a concept used to describe the process in which with growing production, the price per unit of output will decrease. On Bonaire, electricity generators produce electricity for the 18,500 inhabitants with the diesel generator station producing 14 MW. Mayer (2000) states that, generally speaking, a power plant reaches maximum economies of scale with more than 9 MW.
In the case of Bonaire, issues related to distributed control can be linked to poverty and economic inequality. Decentralized production of RES further increases the existing inequality due to the fact that the resulting increased costs are shared but the benefits are not. For this reason, demographic data on income and income inequality can indicate whether a community will face similar problems during a transition to RES.
6.3 The role of the Dutch government in stimulating short-‐term steps
As was concluded from the Tweede Kamer der Staten Generaal (2014), electricity forms an important part of the expenses of inhabitants of Bonaire as the price of a kilowatt-‐hour of energy is approximately double as compared to the European Netherlands. Furthermore, this is relatively even more expensive as incomes are relatively low, and accordingly, high tariffs of energy can only just be afforded (Tweede Kamer der Staten Generaal, 2014). As a result, one of the short-‐term steps that may be needed to reach a 100% RES energy system are subsidies.
Due to the fact that energy is a primary resource in life, it is desirable that energy is affordable for all consumers. Furthermore, with an eye on an increase in implementation of RES, this will not be able without the finances made available by consumers. As a result, on short-‐ term, an acceptable tariff for energy on Bonaire is not possible without subsidies (Tweede Kamer der Staten Generaal, 2014).
Therefore, the Tweede Kamer der Staten Generaal (2014) pleaded for a subsidy of 6 million U.S dollars per year that is meant to cover part of the transport and maintenance costs of WEB so that energy costs may be lowered. It is thought that as a result, energy costs will still be more expensive than European Netherlands, but that these will lower progressively in the future. This will partly be caused by the continuous increase in RES percentage and efficiency on the Bonaire, which in time will economize the expensive fossil fuel imports. Consequently, the
expectation is that the subsidy will be able to be cut down over a period of approximately ten years (Tweede Kamer der Staten Generaal, 2014).
6.4 The release from -‐and avoidance of a lock-‐in situation
Like most energy producing communities, Bonaire was locked in a situation where previous investments in fossil-‐fuel consuming energy production halted the development RES. Implementing RES would mean discontinuing costly and functioning fossil-‐fuel generators. Any implementation had to be done over extended periods of time as the old generators had to be replaced, possibly by wind or solar farms. The situation changed dramatically when the fire of 2004 destroyed a large part of the power plant and the full compensation by the insurance companies released Bonaire from the lock-‐in situation. From this point, the governing institutions of Bonaire were free to pursue any form of energy production they pleased (van Buiren & van Halderen, 2013). This opportunity has led Bonaire to be one of the few islands in the Caribbean that has been able to pursue a more renewable energy production. Secondly, the current power generators can use fossil-‐fuels as well biofuels. This makes it possible to further increase the percentage of RES without added costs, avoiding a possible lock-‐in scenario. In this respect, the lock-‐in situation and sudden release from it has allowed Bonaire to come to a situation where it is years ahead of similar islands seeking to implement RES. This is the reason that analysing the problems and benefits that Bonaire faces during the implementation of RES is so valuable for future development of similar islands or small communities.
6.5 The risk of a small political body
Since a transition to a renewable energy system takes more than a few years, the vision behind the transition has to be consistent over time. Due to the decades-‐long timeframe, policymakers from different generations have to be on a similar line regarding the importance of the RES transition (Geels, 2005). Bonaire has an island council that is elected every four years. Besides that, the board of the WEB, the Dutch government, possible investors and the inhabitants of Bonaire are important actors that can change their behaviour and decision-‐making over time.
As a special municipality of the Netherlands, Bonaire’s main political body is the eilandsraad, or island council. It is a democratically chosen body that consists of nine members that make policy and install and control the bestuurscollege, a committee that executes the policy set by the island council (Openbaar Lichaam Bonaire [OLB], 2015). These nine people are chosen every four years and do have an important influence on Bonaire’s vision. Political myopia is therefore a serious risk, the opinion of nine people that can change every four years do not have
to be stable. On the other hand, the island councils history show that two main parties have the majority that can maintain their long-‐term vision (OLB, 2015).
The conflict around WEB-‐Ecopower (Van Buiren and Van Halderen, 2013) is another example that shows the vulnerability of a long-‐term transition caused by a short-‐term shift in influential actors. The board of the WEB before 2012 was opportunistic in its renewable energy policy, but due to a lack of experience and knowledge wrong decisions were made, that proposed a risk for the whole transition. The Dutch government helped the WEB to sustain its long-‐term goals and the old board is replaced, but the whole situation showed instability and insecurity. This makes the island less attractive for foreign investors that are needed for reaching the long-‐term energy goals.
Interestingly, two of the five problems stated by Kemp have resulted in an opportunity in the case of Bonaire. Table 1 provides an overview of the situation on Bonaire associated with these problems and their proposed causes.
Table 1. Overview of difficulties (red) and opportunities (green) faced by Bonaire during the transition to RES, the related problems as stated by Kemp (2007) and the identified causes.
Situation Bonaire Problem (Kemp) Cause
Bonaire was able to develop a renewable energy
production system without constraints caused by past investments
Danger of lock-‐in 2004 fire destroying the old diesel-‐generators
Long-‐term plans are present and stimulated with the possibility for subsidies
Lack of long-‐term vision Dutch governments involvement in energy policies on the ABC-‐islands A long-‐lasting financial
conflict with Ecopower causing financial loss and loss of reputation
Conflict Lack of experience in dealing with large corporations Unequal distribution of costs
and benefits resulting from the implementation of decentralized RES
Distributed control Poverty and economic inequality on Bonaire The risk of politics to turn on
previous decisions regarding the implementation of RES
Political myopia The high turnover rate of politicians in office on Bonaire
7. Conclusion
As one of the leaders in RES in the Caribbean, Bonaire provides an interesting case study in which understanding their current energy situation, decision-‐making and problems during the implementation of RES may prove useful in assessing RES transitions for similar islands in the near future.